Risk Analysis and Uncertainty in Flood Damage Reduction Studies (2000) / Chapter Skim
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Conclusions and Recommendations
Conclusions and Recommendations
Pages 159-167
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From page 159... ...
shall enter into an agreement with the National Academy of Sciences to conduct a study of the Corps of Engineers' use of risk analysis for the evaluation of hydrology, hydraulics, and economics in flood damage reduction studies. The study shall inclucle a)
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From page 160... ...
In this study, these multiple disciplines, and the committee members representing them, were bound by common interests in risk analysis, floods, Corps of Engineers practices, and floodplain management. The Corps of Engineers's adoption of risk analysis procedures that explicitly recognize anti quantify hydrologic, hydraulic, geotechnical, and economic uncertainties should lead to projects better tailored to local conditions and to available information, thus better achieving social objectives and flood damage reduction goals.
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From page 161... ...
These two project performance metrics are important and appropriately summarize economic and safety dimensions of system performance. They adequately characterize the performance of flood damage reduction projects.
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From page 162... ...
The committee recommends that the Corps strive to reduce the considerable variation in the estimates of water surface elevation when using different models of river hydraulics. The Corps's experiences in applying alternative methods to estimate flood stage indicate that there can be substantial differences in the results.
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From page 163... ...
The committee recommends that the Corps undertake statistical ex post studies to compare predictions of geotechnical failure probabilities made by the reliability model against frequencies of actual levee failures during Hoods. The committee also recommends that the Corps conduct statistical ex post studies with respect to the performance of other flood damage reduction structures.
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From page 164... ...
The committee recommends that the Corps calculate the risks associated with flooding, and the benefits of a flood damage reduction project, structure by structure, rather than conducting risk analysis on damage aggregated over groups of structures in damage reaches. CONSISTENT TERlViINOLOGY The committee recommends that the Corps adopt and use a consistent vocabulary for distinguishing among natural variability, knowledge uncertainty, and measures of system reliability.
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From page 165... ...
Until the measure of annual exceedance probability approach is adopted as the key criterion for levee certification, the committee recommends that the Corps and FEMA adopt a single conditional nonexceedance probability for levee certification. The former certification criterion was flawed in that it produced vastly different levels of flood protection for different communities.
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From page 166... ...
To obtain a more reliable measure of the median annual exceedance probability of approved projects, the committee recommends that the Corps examine a larger number of Hood damage reduction projects and audit the process of estimating the annual exceedance probability for these projects. The committee also recommends that the Corps develop a table showing percentiles of variability in the annual exceedance probability of its flood damage reduction projects.
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From page 167... ...
To appropriately include such consequences and their relative importance, the committee recommends that the ecological, health, and other social effects of Corps flood damage reduction studies, and the tradeoffs between them, be quantified to the extent possible and included in the National Economic Development Plan. More explicit efforts at including these types of consequences and values in the Corps's benefit-cost calculations should increase social benefits of the Corps's flood damage reduction studies.
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