Understanding Climate Change Feedbacks (2003)

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APPENDIX A CLIMATE CHANGE FEEDBACKS WORKSHOP BOULDER, COLORADO AUGUST 13-16' 2001 AGENDA Monday, August 13 8:30 A.M. Introductions, discussion of the motivation for the workshop, its objectives, the ensuing study process, etc. Dennis Hartmann 9:00 A.M. Keynote talk: "Perspectives on climate change science and where we need to be going" Jerry Mahlman 10:00 A.M. Broad policy and scientific issues associated with characterizing and reducing feedback uncertainty. Session Chair: Dan Sarewitz · Issues viewed from the top 0 Policy implications of characterizing and reducing feedback uncertainty Neal Lane · Science 0 Implications of multiple climate change diagnostics for uncertainties in climate system properties Peter Stone 0 Reducing feedback uncertainty in climate models— Syukuro Manabe 137

138 UNDERSTANDING CLIME TE CHANGE FEEDBACKS · Policy A framework for assessing the nonlinear interactions between multiple climate feedbacks Bill Rossow o Prioritizing the policy relevance of climate change feedback research Robert Lempert o Climate change feedbacks within a broad policy context Roger Pielke, Jr. 2:00 P.M. Lapse rate, water vapor, and cloud feedbacks Session Chair: Dian Seidel Session Rapporteur: David Randall Water vapor and lapse rate feedbacks Brian Soden Interactions between global warming and stratospheric ozone depletion—Drew Shindell Cloud feedbacks—Graeme Stephens Indirect cloud feedbacks~raham Feingold Panel discussion—Stephens, Rossow, Soden, Feingold, Shindell, Sherwood Tuesday, August 14 8:30 A.M. Ocean circulation and biogeochemical feedbacks on climate change Session Chair: Lynne Talley Session Rapporteur: Andrew Weaver Thermohaline circulation changes Peter Gent Other ocean circulation feedbacks Jim McWilliams Sea ice feedback—Doug Martinson Marine biogeochemistry Tony Michaels Panel discussion Gent, Talley, Semtner, Martinson, McWilliams, Plato, Gruber, Michaels, Lynch, Najjar, and Levitus 1:45 P.M. Influence of natural modes of variability Session Chair: Gene Rasmusson Session Rapporteur: Tony Busalacchi

APPENDIXA ENSO and other Pacific modes Kevin Trenberth Annular mode Mike Wallace Atlantic modes of variability Jim Hurrell · Panel discussion Hurrell, Wallace, Shindell, Trenberth Clement, Lukas, Meehl Wednesday, August 15 8:30 A.M. Terrestrial feedbacks Session Chair: Eric Wood Session Rapporteur: Gordon Bonan 139 · Overview Bob Dickinson Soil moisture feedback—Alan Betts · Snow cover feedback Dennis Lettenmaier · Carbon cycle feedbacks—Richard Houghton · Vegetation feedbacks—Roger Pielke, Sr. · Panel discussion—Dickinson, Wofsy, Lettenmaier, Betts, Pielke Sr. Synthesis: "Probabilistic Approaches to Determine the Relative and Absolute Importance of Different Sources of Uncertainty for Projections of Future Global-mean Temperature Change" Tom Wigley Presentations by Rapporteurs summarize key issues in a forward-looking manner for each of the workshop's earlier sessions. The emphasis will be on what we need to do differently or better, rather than on simply restating the current state of the science. Thursday, August 16 8:30 A.M. Synthesis~ontinued Workshop leaders summarize the key points from the previous day's discussion and then open up the meeting for a discussion of the "next steps" in which science needs to proceed to make progress on characterizing and reducing

140 UNDERSTANDING CLIAL4TE CHANGE FEEDBACKS climate change feedback uncertainties. 10:45 A.M. Closed Session Closed session deliberations of the NRC Panel. Agenda Postscript: Because atmospheric chemistry was given only minor attention at this workshop, the Panel subsequently enlisted Michael Prather as a consultant to provide additional input.

APPENDIXA MEETING PARTICIPANTS Panel on Climate Change Feedbacks Dennis Hartmann (Chair) University of Washington Alan Betts Atmospheric Research Gordon Bonan National Center for Atmospheric Research Lee Branscome Environment Dynamics Research, Inc. Tony Busalacchi University of Maryland Amanda Lynch University of Colorado Syukuro Manabe Princeton University Douglas Martinson Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University Pennsylvania State University University of Maryland National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Aeronomy Laboratory Columbia University National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Air Resources Laboratory Colorado State University Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California at San Diego University of Washington University of Victoria Harvard University Princeton University Raymond Najjar Eugene Rasmusson A. R. Ravishankara Daniel Sarewitz Dian Seidel Graeme Stephens Lynne Talley John M. Wallace Andrew Weaver Steven Wofsy Eric Wood Anjuli Banzai Roger Barry Maurice Blackman David Carson John Christy Amy Clement Robert Dickinson Randy Dole 141 Participants National Science Foundation University of Colorado National Center for Atmospheric Research World Climate Research Programme University of Alabama-Huntsville University of Miami Georgia Institute of Technology National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

142 UNDERSTANDING CLIMATE CHANGE FEEDBACKS Mark Eakin National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Graham Feingold National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Peter Gent National Center for Atmospheric Research Chuck Hakkarinen Electric Power Research Institute Andrew Heidinger National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Marty Hoerling National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Richard Houghton Woods Hole Research Center Jim Hurrell National Center for Atmospheric Research Neal Lane Rice University David Legler U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Program Office Robert Lempert RAND Corporation Sydney Levitus National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Johnny Linn University of Colorado Roger Lukas University of Hawaii Mike MacCracken U.S. Global Change Research Program Jerry Mahlman University Corporation for Atmospheric Research Jerry Meehl National Center for Atmospheric Research Tony Michaels University of Southern California Chris Miller National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Jeff Miroche University of Colorado Mitch Moncrieff National Center for Atmospheric Research George Ohring National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Roger Pielke, Jr. National Center for Atmospheric Research Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado State University Robert Pincus National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration David Randall Colorado State University Aaron Rivers University of Colorado William Rossow National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies Peter Schultz National Research Council Bert Semtner Naval Research Laboratory

APPENDIXA Steve Sherwood Drew Shindell Andrew Slater Tony Socci Brian Soden Jud Stailey Peter Stone Yogesh Sud Kevin Trenberth Rodney Viereck Warren Washington Peter Webster Tom Wigley Sam Williamson 143 Yale University National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies University of Colorado U.S. Environmental Protection Agency National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology Massachusetts Institute of Technology National Aeronautics and Space Administration Headquarters National Center for Atmospheric Research National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Center for Atmospheric Research University of Colorado National Center for Atmospheric Research Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology