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Committee for the Study of Transportation Professional Needs LESTER A. HOEL, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Chairman NOEL C. BUFE, Traffic Institute, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois LAWRENCE N. DALLAM, Houston-Galveston Area Council, Houston, Texas WARREN G. DAVISON, Cerro Gordo County, Iowa MORTIMER L. DOWNEY, New York Metropolitan Transit Authority, New York MARK G. GOODE, Texas State Department of Highways and Public Trans- portation, Austin DELON HAMPTON, Howard University and Delon Hampton and Associates, Chartered, Rockville, Maryland DONALD R. HOWERY, Department of Transportation, Los Angeles, California CHRISTINE M. JOHNSON, Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, New York JOHN B. KEMP, Kansas Department of Transportation, Topeka MICHAEL D. MEYER, Massachusetts Department of Public Works, Boston FRED D. MILLER, Oregon Department of Transportation, Salem JOHN F. POTTS, Metropolitan Washington Area Transit Authority, Washington, D.C. ORREN E. REAMES, California Department of Transportation, Sacramento MARSHALL F. REED, Jr., Highway Users Federation, Washington, D.C. ROGER P. SNOBLE, San Diego Transit Corporation, San Diego, California HOWARD P. TUCKMAN, Memphis State University, Memphis, Tennessee FRANCIS C. TURNER, Arlington, Virginia CHARLEY V. WOOTAN, Texas Transportation Institute, College Station Liaison Representatives JERRY HAWKINS, Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation DAVID J. HENSING, American Association of State Highway and Trans- portation Officials, Washington, D.C. MELVIN HOWARD, American Public Transit Association, Washington, D.C. PHILIP G. HUGHES, Urban Mass Transportation Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation SAM E. LUEBBERT, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation CHARLES W. McGUIRE, U.S. Department of Transportation DARRYL H. RUNETT, U.S. Department of Transportation JAMES A. SCOTT, Transportation Research Board Transportation Research Board Staff DAMIAN J. KULASH, Assistant Director for Special Projects WILLIAM A. HYMAN, Senior Project Coordinator NANCY M. LOONEY, Associate Project Coordinator MARGARET HECKARD, Consultant KERMIT L. BERGSTRALH, Consultant LITTLETON MacDORMAN, Consultant DIANNE SCHWAGER, Consultant
Preface A large number of professionals who entered highway and mass transit organizations during the past 30 years are expected to retire soon, particularly those who helped build the nation's Interstate system. Unless there is careful planning, this loss of professional capability could impair the ability of these agencies to maintain the nation's transportation system effectively. Aware of this development, the Congress (through the Surface Transportation Assistance Act of 1982) directed the National Academy of Sciences to "conduct a compre- hensive study and investigation of future transportation professional manpower needs, including but not limited to prevailing methods of recruitment, training and finan- cial and other incentives and disincentives which encour- age or discourage retention in service of such profes- sional manpower by Federal, State, and local governments." The legislation called for a report to the Secretary of Transportation and the Congress "on the results of such study and investigation, together with its reconunen- dations." in response, this report assesses future professional needs in highway and mass transit agencies in federal, state, and local government. This study also examines the role of consulting firms in satisfying the future professional requirements of highway and transit agencies. With financial support from the Office of the Secretary of the U.S. Department of Transportation, the Federal Highway Administration, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, and the Urban Mass Transportation Administration, the National Research Council assembled a committee of 19 individuals with expertise in the various disciplines needed to evaluate the future skill v
vi requirements of highway and mass transit agencies. The committee included individuals with broad experience in federal, state, and local highway organizations; in mass transportation; and in regional planning. The committee also had individuals with expertise in civil engineering, planning, economics, safety, and public policy, and it included numerous individuals from colleges and universi- ties who are familiar with professional educational and training programs. This report gathers together the various data and view- points on current and future professional needs that resulted from this study. It examines how transportation agencies see their own professional requirements, how the demand for transportation specialties derives from national projections of needs for professionals such as civil engineers and computer specialists, and how some agencies have found innovative ways to meet future needs. The study committee relied heavily on several surveys of transportation agencies as well as on previous related research and data, field reviews, and input from several concurrent efforts, including the Transportation Research Board's Surface Transportation Education and Training Conference held in Williamsburg, Virginia, in October 1984. Comparative data and experience of agencies obtained from the surveys may help agencies chart their future professional personnel strategies. Because the data presented here reflect a wide variety of definitions and organizational constraints, meaningful recommendations must be carefully worked out in each specific context. The education and training of transportation profes- sionals is touched upon briefly in several chapters and in an appendix. More in-depth exploration of these matters is being prepared in a separate Transportation Research Board Special Report, which will be available later in 1985. Based on the conference of transporta- tion educators and practitioners held in Williamsburg, Virginia, in 1984, this Special Report will provide more detailed discussion of the education and training needs presented here. A preliminary summary of conclusions and recommendations of the Williamsburg conference appears in Appendix H. This effort would have been impossible without the enthusiastic cooperation and interest of numerous associ- ations and professional organizations, particularly those
vii that administered survey questionnaires to their members: the American Association of State Highway and Transpor- tation Officials, the American Public Transit Associa- tion, the Institute of Transportation Engineers, the American Consulting Engineers Council, and the National Association of Governors' Highway Safety Representatives. This study relied on several consultants for special investigations--Kermit L. Bergstralh, Littleton MacDorman, and Dianne Schwager. Michael Bronzini provided a summary of the Surface Transportation Educa- tion and Training Conference. Charles White and Sheldon Edner provided some preliminary results on transit manager training and career paths. The study is also indebted to a number of organizations that hosted field trips or made special efforts to gather data for this study: San Mateo County Transit District, Sacramento Regional Transit District, West Virginia Department of Highways, California Department of Transportation, Texas State Department of Highways and Public Transportation, Washington Department of Transportation, Michigan Depart- ment of Transportation, and the City of Dallas Department of Transportation. The study was performed under the supervision of Dr. Damian J. Kulash, Assistant Director of the Division of Special Projects. William A. Hyman was the Senior Project Coordinator and Nancy M. Looney was the Associate Project Coordinator. Dr. Margaret Heckard assisted in the early phases of the study. Finally it is essential to acknowledge the indispens- able assistance of the word processing staff, particu- larly Frances E. Holland; Lisbeth L. Luke, Librarian, and Barbara L. Post, Assistant Librarian; and the edito- riál staff--Nancy A. Ackerman, TRB Publications Manager, and Naomi Kassabian, Assistant Editor--who were respon- sible for editing the final report. Lester A. Hoel Chairman, Committee for the Study of Transportation Professional Needs
Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . 1 1 INTRODUCTION ..............................8 Background, 8 Scope, 10 Methods, 22 Organization of This Report, 24 Conclusions, 25 References, 27 2 STATE HIGHWAY AGENCIES ....................28 Past Trends in Employment by State Highway Agencies, 29 Future Growth in Employment, 31 Replacement of Current Professionals, 36 Future Professional Needs in State Highway Agencies, 39 Conclusions, 75 References, 76 3 INDIVIDUAL STATE HIGHWAY AGENCIES ........79 Needs from a State's Perspective, 79 Various Indexes of State Needs, 83 Conclusions, 101 Reference, 101 4 THE TRANSIT INDUSTRY ......................104 Types of Transit Professionals, 105 Future Requirements for Transit Professionals, 108 Future Sources of Transit Professionals, 119 Skill Shortages in Transit Agencies, 121 Steps to Meet Professional Needs, 129 Changing Service and Skill Requirements, 135 Future Needs, 137 Conclusions, 140 References, 141 5 LOCAL, REGIONAL, AND FEDERAL AGENCIES ... 143 Local and Regional Agencies, 143 Federal Agencies, 159 Conclusions, 163 References, 166
6 OUTLOOK FOR ENTRY-LEVEL CIVIL ENGINEERS FOR STATE HIGHWAY AGENCIES ...............167 Current Market for Civil Engineers, 168 Outlook for College Enrollments, 171 Share of Engineers Entering Civil Engineering, 173 U.S. Citizens, 178 Share of Civil Engineers Recruited by State Highway Agencies, 178 Future Agency Needs Compared with Future Supply of Graduates, 180 Conclusions, 186 References, 188 APPENDIXES A Brief Review of Previous Research and Data Sources 190 B Survey of State Transportation and Highway Departments .............................. 200 C Survey of Bus and Rail Transit Agencies ........... 234 D Survey of State Highway Safety Offices ........... 246 E Survey of Civil Engineering Consulting Firms in Transportation ........................... 253 F Survey of Local Transportation Agencies ........... 266 G Oregon Department of Transportation Management Home Purchase Program ........... 275 H Conference on Surface Transportation Education and Training: Summary and Recommendations 281 STUDY COMMITTEE BIOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION 293
Executive Summary The coming decade will be a dynamic one within the nation's transportation agencies. Greater-than--average turnover is expected among the most senior professionals. Approximately one-third of the professional engineers in state and county transportation departments will retire, not to mention many planners and others in transit agencies. This is far greater than past retirement trends. State, county, and municipal highway agencies hired extensively during the economic boom following World War II and amid the rapid expansion of the nation's highway programs during that period. During the 1970s, however, growth of highway agency staff did not continue. The professionals hired in the 1950s and early 1960s become due for retirement in the late 1980s and early 1990s, creating an unusually large turnover of senior profes- sionals. From 1985 through 1989, about 16 percent of all engineers in state transportation agencies will retire and five states are likely to experience retire- ments of engineers exceeding 20 percent of their current engineering work force. As a result there will be a series of promotions and reassignments within state agencies. This will stimulate reconsideration of organi- zational structures, missions, and personnel needs. Mass transit agencies passed through a similar wave of retirements in the last decade; nevertheless, many senior transit professionals who helped transit to expand in the 1970s will also retire soon. The average age of transit professionals is roughly 10 years lower than it was a decade ago. Transit's challenge is to function increasingly like a private business and so it will be drawing increasingly on business and management skills 1
in the future as well as cultivating those skills that are unique to transit. The agencies employing transportation professionals can exploit this period of change to identify and hire those with the skills needed to execute future programs effi- ciently and effectively. Transportation professionals will enjoy enhanced advancement opportunities and increased professional diversification. More top-quality students in colleges and universities will choose to major in transportation-related programs as career paths in transportation become more available, rewarding, interesting, and promising of growing respon- sibility and advancement. Alerting both college and top high school students to this potential is essential to ensuring that adequate numbers of top-quality graduates are available, particularly because civil engineering enrollments and the number of graduates have begun to drop recently and civil engineering's share of all bachelor-level engineering graduates has been declining throughout the past decade. The generational shift that is about to occur in the nation's transportation agencies will result in strong, dynamic, future-oriented organizations if this shift is handled with foresight. Recruitment, education and training, compensation, professional satisfaction, skill requirements, and all other aspects of human resources management must be carefully matched to tomorrow's requirements. No crisis in obtaining necessary profes- sional skills need occur if all parts of the process-- state departments of transportation, transit agencies, city and county governments, and universities--take real- istic steps to address future needs, as described in the following sections. STATE DEPARTMENTS OF TRANSPORTATION State departments of transportation employ about 41,000 transportation professionals, more than are employed by any other single type of public organization. Of these, the majority (about 30,000) are civil engineers. During the coming decade, program growth is likely to cause total professional staff requirements to rise 1.8 percent per year. Retirements will require replacement of about 3.1 percent of the states' professionals each year, much above the corresponding national average of 1.9 percent. Further, the additional complexity of
3 rehabilitation will add to the professional requirements of transportation agencies as rehabilitation consumes a greater proportion of program resources. If past trends in university enrollments in civil engi- neering programs and state recruitment of engineering graduates were to continue, state departments of trans- portation could face shortages of qualified applicants within the next 5 years. Nevertheless, no such crisis will occur if states Train mid-level and management engineers to generate the skills needed by senior professionals and to meet changing program needs; Exploit the use of computers in design and drafting, pavement management, maintenance management, person- nel management, and other applications; Recognize that civil engineers will continue to be the backbone of their professional worK force, and regularly review and upgrade their recruitment prac- tices, professional development techniques, and compensation practices to ensure that they attract, nuture, and retain high-quality engineers; Substitute consulting expertise for in-house exper- tise where it is efficient to do so (states rated hiring consultants as virtually the top action that they frequently take to help meet professional needs); Review certification procedures to ensure that necessary professional expertise is preserved while the skills of planners, environmental specialists, and other professionals are fully used; and Improve the versatility, depth, and use of techni- cians where appropriate, continuing to use engineers to find creative solutions to complex technical problems. TRANSIT AGENCIES Although most transit professionals require general--- management skills similar to those needed by other busi- nesses, transit managers nonetheless report some special hiring difficulties. Budgetary pressures facing the industry threaten job security and advancement opportuni- ty, making recruitment difficult. Also, some profession- al specialties are unique to transit, and candidates for these specialties must be groomed within the industry.
4 For example, more than one transit system in five now report difficulties in hiring in such specialized areas as operations and maintenance. Recent budget proposals and legislative initiatives indicate that the nation is reconsidering the fundamental organizational roles in transit--federal versus local, private versus public. To ensure that necessary professional skills are main- tained, transit managers should Cultivate an entrepreneurial approach among transit professionals so that they can effectively manage their services as organizational roles shift and budgetary constraints tighten; Establish training programs for professionals in specialties unique to transit; Work aggressively to advance the best professional talent within the industry as it is cultivated; maintaining high standards of professionalism requires transit agencies to review any civil service constraints and union regulations that might inhibit selection of the best candidates for advancement; Establish priorities so that professional resources can be focused on provision of key services as future budgetary constraints take effect; and Apply computer techniques to increase the productiv- ity of routing and scheduling, parts inventory control, personnel administration, and evaluation of service alternatives. CITY, COUNTY, AND REGIONAL GOVERNMENTS Transportation professionals in the 22,000 municipalities and counties throughout the United States face growing traffic volumes and complex governmental coordination problems in urban areas and an unusual breadth of activ- ities in both rural and urban agencies. Many profession- als working in local government and metropolitan planning organizations have diverse responsibilities besides transportation, including waste management, water resources, zoning, and housing. One professional, espe- cially in rural areas, is sometimes responsible for high- way management, administration, design, construction, inspection, and maintenance responsibilities in several adjacent counties.
5 In view of the broad demands placed on them and the lack of proximity among similarly trained individuals located in rural areas, transportation professionals in local governments need strong training programs and tech- nology transfer activities. In particular, local govern- ments should Encourage those who fill top county engineering posts to acquire knowledge in public administration and develop the needed versatility through partici- pation in training and technology transfer programs. As county engineers retire, counties should groom and recruit replacements with multidisciplinary training and experience. In urban areas recruit more aggressively for profes- sionals with traffic operations and control skills or else undertake special training of in-house professionals in this area. Ensure that professional staff are versed in rele- vant computer applications so that cities and coun- ties are able to exploit future advances in this area. Focus more attention on intergovernmental relations and improved communication, coordination, and imple- mentation skills to facilitate decision making in complex multijurisdictional environments. UNIVERSITIES AND COLLEGES The nation's universities and colleges will continue to be the key supplier of new professionals to the transpor- tation industry. Continued high-quality, up-to-date, and forward-thinking university programs are essential to ensure that tomorrow's transportation professionals are ready to do tomorrow's job. To meet this challenge, transportation professionals in universities must Review and revise transportation curricula to provide tomorrow's professional with an education of breadth and depth that not only includes a tech- nical specialty and better communication and analyt- ical skills but teaches computer skills, strategic thinking, impact assessment and political awareness, entrepreneurship, and group dynamics and instills a global perspective;
6 Publicize the coming opportunities in transportation to prospective students and others who can influence career choices; Encourage further development of programs to attract women and minorities to transportation; Increase the interaction between university programs, government, and industry to ensure that education and training stay closely matched to employer needs; Become actively involved in organizations composed of transportation professionals employed by federal, state, and local governments; and Preserve strong university research programs because those programs not only advance the state of the art but also play a vital role in educating future professionals in transportation. FEDERAL AGENCIES The number of federal employees in transportation activi- ties has been declining in recent years. Both the Feder- al Highway Administration and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration expect to maintain current staff levels over the next 5 years, replacing only those lost through attrition. The future professional needs for the Urban Mass Transit Administration are uncertain as agency programs and budgets are being revised. Although federal programs will shift with future needs, two trends appear likely: There will be a slight shift in the emphasis of federal highway safety programs toward occupant protection, prevention of drunk driving, and emer- gency medicine. Highway programs will remain focused on major construction and rehabilitation and growing bridge and traffic operations work. WOMEN, MINORITIES, AND OTHER HUMAN RESOURCES As the nation plans to meet its future transportation professional needs, it faces a future of changing program priorities, public expectations, and technological capability. Further, there will be new human resources and skills to meet this challenge as a new generation of
7 professionals enters transportation-related fields. The number of women and minorities educated in fields suit- able for professional work in transportation will continue to increase, although both remain under- represented. For example, in 1984 20 percent of the graduates receiving bachelor's degrees in civil engi- neering were women, up from less than 1 percent in 1970. This compares with more than 40 percent for women receiving bachelor's or first professional degrees in veterinary science, pharmacy, and law. In 1984 blacks earned only 2 percent of all civil engineering bachelor's degrees, far below their share of the U.S. population. As public agencies and universities begin the transi- tion to the next generation of professionals, they should carefully review their recruitment and classification practices to ensure that they make the fullest use of all available human resources. The resources of profes- sional organizations serving federal, state, and local governments should likewise be used to enhance the training for and development of transportation services when this can be done in a cost-effective manner.
1 Introduction BACKGROUND A new generation will soon be running the public agencies that build and maintain the nation's highways, streets, and transit systems. The professionals who built the Interstate system will soon retire and so will many of the more seasoned managers, executives, and supervisors who helped expand transit service in the 1970s. One- third of the current pool of transportation engineers at the state and county levels is likely to retire by 1995. High turnover in state departments of transportation, city and county public works offices, and other public transportation agencies will create real problems for those who have not already begun to aggressively address them. Recruiting adequate numbers of suitably qualified professionals, training new and current employees to perform the functions of retiring employees, and compet- ing with other prospective employers will require serious attention from the management of public agencies. But the large turnover ahead will also bring valuable opportunities. The orientation of transportation programs is changing and a new mix of professional skills will be needed to match. For example, the rapid growth in construction of new highways evident during the 1950s and 1960s has slowed, and the complex tasks of recon- struction, repair, rehabilitation, and improvement of existing roads will consume a growing share of program funds. Agencies can adjust the organizational structure and mix of staff skills to fit the changing needs as new professionals enter and promotions, reassignments, and new definitions of tasks occur. The safety, environmental, land use, economic, and sociological impacts of transportation are of growing
9 public concern. Professionals with expertise in these areas increasingly will be needed to articulate the issues and help resolve these public concerns. At the same time, the potential of computers in transportation agencies is only beginning to be realized. The next generation of transportation professionals will be guid- ing their agencies through continuing changes in the use of computers in transportation agencies. The tasks that future professionals will be called on to perform should lead to more cost-effective rehabili- tation, better physical condition of transportation facilities, safer travel, reduced environmental damage, and preservation of neighborhoods, historical sites, natural scenery, and ecology. The generational change in governmental transportation agencies offers a unique opportunity to reshape these organizations to meet emerging future needs. Recognizing that many of the engineers and other professionals who helped design and build the nations streets and highways over the past 30 years would soon be retiring and faced with worrisome reports of potential staff shortages in state and local transportation agen- cies, Congress called for a study of future transporta- tion professional requirements in the 1982 Surface Transportation Assistance Act (1) Sec. 135. The Secretary of Transportation shall undertake to enter into appropriate arrangements with the National Academy of Sciences' Transporta- tion Research Board to conduct a comprehensive study and investigation of future transportation profes- sional manpower needs, including but not limited to prevailing methods of recruitment, training, and financial and other incentives and disincentives which encourage or discourage retention in service of such professional manpower by Federal, State, and local governments. In response to this mandate, this report explores these issues from the national perspective and from the view- point of individual agencies. Both perspectives are needed because particular state or local agencies may face serious staffing difficulties even if the nationwide supply of transportation professionals is adequate. Shortages in specific agencies can result from a wave of retirements, a lack of replacements for retiring profes- sionals, a scarcity of professionals in the regions where
10 they are needed, or an agency's inability to recruit, train, and promote new employees. SCOPE About one of seven, or roughly 14 million of 100 million, U.S. workers is employed in some aspect of transporta- tion--automobile and transportation equipment manufac- turing, retailing, and repairing; motor vehicle fuel sales; transportation facility construction; motor vehi- cle and carrier insurance; and the transportation of passengers and freight (2). This study is primarily concerned with only a small fraction of all the nation's transportation workers, approximately 115,000 professionals--engineers, planners, computer specialists, and so forth--in federal, state, city, county, and regional transportation agencies. It also accounts for the resources of consulting firms, including 66,000 engineers working for civil engineering firms involved in transportation. Nationwide there are about 174,000 civil engineers (3) and roughly 100,000 work in transportation at least some of the time. The major employers of professionals in the public sector are state transportation and highway departments, municipalities, and mass transit agencies, which employ roughly 41,000, 36,000, and 29,000 professionals, respectively. Supporting all the professionals in the public sector are at least 64,000 technicians. Given this focus, several definitions are crucial in determining the scope of this study. An assessment of future transportation professional needs depends on A definition of the future, Which forms of transportation are included, How the term professional is interpreted, and How needs are defined and measured. The Future This study concentrates primarily on the needs of the next decade, 1985-1994. Because transportation facili- ties and equipment have long lives, most of the physical plant that will be in place a decade hence is already operational or planned. Thus, many of the major changes that will occur between the present and the end of the
11 century are already evident. The surprises that may occur will be due to unforeseen technological innovation, new laws of Congress and the states, and shifts in economic conditions. For example, if in response to the Reagan Administration's budget proposals Congress were to sharply curtail funding for mass transit, the slightly growing level of transit professional needs pictured in this study could turn into a severe decline. Also, the increasing interrelationship and interdependency of the nations of the world may create new transportation professional needs. New environmental side effects may emerge and another energy crisis could develop. Social trends, public and private institutions, legal arrange- ments, or ways of learning or managing will undoubtedly change, often in ways that are not predictable. Nevertheless, it is fruitful to examine future profes- sional needs in the context of major changes known to be already occurring and likely to continue throughout the next decade. Among the recurring themes in transportation through the end of the century will be a continued heavy reliance on the automobile. The transportation network will probably be little different 15 years from now. The primary travel hubs will not change, and the main surface transportation links between cities will be the Inter- state highway system and key rail lines and waterways. The large cities of the Northeast and Midwest will remain densely populated, retain their current form and trans- portation network, and generate similar transportation needs. As a result mass transit will remain a key ingre- dient of local transportation in large urban areas. In the South and Southwest, transit could expand in such rapidly growing cities as Miami and Dallas. These urban areas have already begun planning or building new transit systems. With the network of roads and transit links largely in place, maintenance and rehabilitation of the existing highway and transit system will continue to be an abiding concern. Rehabilitation of highways and streets by reconditioning, recycling, and reconstruction has become the top priority of most state and many local highway agencies in order to preserve the nation's enormous investment in its network of roads. Refurbishing transit equipment and upgrading transit facilities is a key concern of transit agencies. Frequently rehabilitation, though increasingly complex and demanding of a broad range of professional skills,
12 is more cost-effective than construction of new facili- ties or acquisition of new equipment. New roads, transit systems, and other capacity expansion, however, will be necessary in some localities because of growth in travel and traffic. Deregulation may also affect future transportation agency activities. State transportation agencies expanded their multimodal planning in the last decade partly in response to deregulation, They now monitor the effects of a freer transportation market and the competition between highway and other modes of travel, and keep track of changes in truck use and the adequacy, performance, and serviceability of highways. Transpor- tation deregulation will persist into the next decade and agencies will continue to adjust to this environment. Continued attention will also be given to costs, not just monetary costs but the broader costs implicit in natural resources and people. Budgetary pressures will continue to force fiscal constraint and conservation. Making more efficient use of existing facilities and services will continue to compete with capacity expansion as a less expensive way to meet the public's growing demand for transportation. Transportation professionals will become more and more vigilant of ways to save the taxpayers' dollars and to spend money as wisely as possible. Those professionals will also continue to be held responsible for the environmental and safety impli- cations of their actions (4). During the next 15 years, the structure of the nation's chief transportation institutions probably will remain the same. The existing federal agencies, state govern- ments, cities, and counties, as well as regional agencies and special districts, will continue to share the respon- sibilities for the improvement and care of transportation facilities. The technology supporting this industry will benefit from the advantages offered by faster, smaller, and less expensive computers. Some manifestations of the work station of the future appear in some offices of today-- computer terminals near every desk, electronic mail, easy access to huge data bases, electronic word proces- sors, decision-making tools such as simulation models and spreadsheets, and electronic engineering aids, for exanipl, computer-aided design and drafting. Rapid change in engineering and office automation as well as in field applications of computers is expected. Construction and maintenance managemert systems for
13 highway engineers will become more sophisticated and effective. Portable computers and telecommun ica t ions already available may allow engineers in the field to find better solutions to their problems with less paperwork. The practices in human resource management will also be evolving. Civil engineers have traditionally performed many transportation functions, particularly in state departments of transportation. Usually states have established necessary certification procedures to ensure technical competency in design and construction projects that involve substantial concerns for public safety and large expenditures of taxpayers' funds. Such procedures have also helped to insulate professional staffs from political patronage and to ensure that professionals have the essential expertise. Strong tech- nical capability is crucial to success. The strong economic performance of Japanese industry compared with that in the United States in the 1970s is partly due to the relatively large fraction of engineers among produc- tion workers in Japan (5). Similarly, the construction of the Interstate highway system, which has been the paramount achievement of the current generation of state engineers, was done with remarkable efficiency, dedica- tion, and integrity. Nevertheless, the basic skills that underlie these professional accomplishments--analytical ability, knowl- edge of physical systems and their properties, communi- cations skills, and creativity--are not necessarily closely correlated with current certification procedures. As a result, nonengineering professionals who have acquired these skills increasingly complain of the lack of opportunity in some state departments of transporta- tion, and they question the current relevance of certifi- cation procedures that were established in an era when top priority went to rapid completion of necessary construction. Increasingly, the practice of human resource management recognizes that the provision of necessary skills, rather than disciplinary credentials, is the key concern. To gain more knowledge about these skills, many states have developed computerized skill inventories. Now as reha- bilitation, safety, and other public concerns grow in importance, a more diverse set of professional qualifica- tions is needed than in the past. State agencies continue to draw not only on traditional engineering skills but on others as well. Yet at the same time,
14 agencies must preserve the technical expertise of their work force and certification is a key tool for accom- plishing this. Whether there should be greater diversification in the types of professionals who can hold different positions and perform different functions is a complicated question that depends on each agency's civil service regulations, agency composition, availability of candidates, and other factors. Some state transportation agencies, Wisconsin and Colorado, for example, have recently asked this question either in the quest to improve productivity or in anticipation of high rates of turnover and the oppor- tunity for redirection that the coming decade will bring. Similarly, some transit agencies are rigid in their professional classifications, which hinders their ability to promote the most qualified individuals into positions of key responsibility. Civil service regulations and union seniority and advancement clauses may be unneces- sarily restrictive, in some instances, and productivity might be increased through careful relaxation of some of these constraints. Indeed, the trend toward improving relationships between management and unions and strength- ening the responsibility and accountability of managers and supervisors is already evident and will probably remain on this track. Another highly visible development likely to continue is the growing participation of women in the work force, particularly in professional positions previously domi- nated by men. The proportion of civil engineering grad- uates that are women, for example, has increased from less than 1 percent in 1970 to 20.2 percent in 1984 (6,7). This is still far beneath the proportion of all college graduates who are women. The number of minorities entering the professional ranks of public agencies is growing too, but some minori- ities, particularly blacks, are sorely underrepresented in comparison with their percentage of the U.S. popula- tion. Far too few are in management positions, also. Agencies have already discovered that to tap these growing sources of professional skill requires stepping up recruitment of women and minorities. It requires persuading them that the opportunities and rewards in transportation equal or exceed those for many other fields. In the past several years there has been a more than ample number of civil engineers to meet demand, but a recent trend likely to continue until arrested by changing market conditions is the declining proportion
15 of civil engineering bachelor's degrees. Recently civil engineering enrollments and the number of graduates have dropped, too. Civil engineering graduates have histori- cally been important contributors of skills to surface transportation agencies. A broad constellation of skills is needed in transportation that reaches far beyond engi- neering, but engineering will play a major role in the future just as it has in the past. Engineers have knowl- edge and skills regarding structural properties, materi- als, and physical and chemical systems. This knowledge was needed in the past, it is needed now, and it will be required in the future. Transportation Because this study is being done in response to a direc- tive contained in surface transportation legislation, it is limited to professional needs for highway, street, and mass transit programs at the federal, state, and local levels. This does not imply that professional needs for other types of transportation are less important. Air transportation, intercity buses, rail- roads, pipelines, ports, and water transport also face unique challenges that compete with highway transporta- tion and pose special professional needs. The legislation that authorized this study directed it to address professional staffing needs in federal, state, and local governments but did not include the private sector. Most of the emphasis found in the following chapters is directed at public-sector transportation agencies. Nevertheless, this distinction is often blurred in practice because of the vast role played by private firms in delivering programs administered by government agencies. For example, firms specializing in consulting engineering, highway construction, transit management, and street maintenance are among the many private companies working closely, often under contract, with public-sector agencies. Because their transporta- tion professional skills are applied in execution of governmental programs, some information on consulting firms is also included in this study. Dr nf a cc i nnn 1 Definitions of "professional" vary widely, from "someone employed in an occupation" to "a person educated or
16 trained and then licensed or certified to practice in a field." Traditionally, "professional" has been accepted to mean a member of an occupation where practice and entry into the field was regulated by government for reasons of the safety and health and welfare of the public. State and local licensing and registration boards have long controlled access to the practice of medicine, law, education, engineering, and various other professions. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) identifies a cate- gory of workers called "professional, technical, and related workers." This heading includes engineers, drafters, surveyors, civil engineering technicians, computer specialists, and physical, life, and social scientists but excludes managers, officials, mechanics, and construction craft workers (8). The National Science Foundation uses a threefold defi- nition of professionals in its periodic survey of engi- neers and scientists. Its definition depends on the respondent's occupation, educational background, and self-identification as a professional (3). Sociologists have suggested other criteria for defining a professional (9,10): There must be a systematic theory or body of knowledge; The practitioners must have some authority over the clientele; There must be community sanction through support, licensing, certification, or accreditation; A code of ethics must exist; There is a subculture reflecting unique values, norms, symbols, and language; A training period must be required; and professionals must have a sense of commitment and community. Because nearly every agency uses its own employee clas- sification scheme, it is extremely difficult to identify a set of professional categories applicable to all agencies. In recent years the distinction between professionals and paraprofessionals has also become less sharp as technological advances and other factors permit paraprofessionals to assume tasks formerly done by professionals. Most states prefer to make a sharp dis- tinction between engineers and engineering technicians,
17 but some states classify highly skilled and experienced technicians as a step in the engineers' professional ladder. At the other extreme, a few agencies consider their engineers to be professionals only if they have professional registration. This study relies on each agency's own definition of a professional. Consequently in this study a professional is someone who meets any one of the following three criteria: A registered professional, A person who has received an undergraduate or advanced degree in a professional field, or A person, not necessarily a registered or degreed professional, who fills a position classified with a professional title such as "engineer." The difficulties in classifying professionals are common to studies of this type and apply to both the public and private sectors. A 1985 National Research Council report by the Committee on Education and Utili- zation of the Engineer, which reviewed the most recent data and studies available on the engineering labor market, bemoaned that engineering, engineers, and the engineering community are poorly defined terms; that inconsistency in definitions pervades statistical studies of the engineering community; and that self-definition of engineers and technicians distorts the picture consid- erably, because many technicians and technologists call themselves engineers and many engineers do technicians' work (11). As in virtually all other studies of this type, the definitions of professionals are not fully consistent from one agency to another and therefore agencies cannot furnish completely consistent data. Survey pretests revealed that in order to facilitate the collection of data for this study, it would be necessary for each state to use its own definition of a professional. To gain easy access to information in its personnel data base, each agency must use the definitions that its personnel classification system relies upon. The classification systems differ from state to state, from one transit agency to another, and, for that matter, among most consulting firms. Nevertheless there is much commonality of understanding among transportation agencies of the role and skills of
18 different kinds of professionals and of the dividing line between professionals and paraprofessionals. For this reason the meaning behind the numbers in this report is fairly robust, and data on professionals in this study probably provide a fairly accurate picture of existing conditions and a reasonable foundation for identifying future needs. Similarly, transit professionals, executive managers, and supervisory personnel cannot be consistently identi- fied in separate categories. In some agencies, the data available distinguish only between salaried workers and those who earn hourly wages. But assuming that salaried employees are the same as professionals is approximate at best. Some who earn hourly wages are professionals by most definitions. For example, in some of the larger agencies many superintendents and supervisors are union members and earn hourly wages. Also, some salaried employees perform clerical duties that are not of a professional nature. In this study all transit execu- tives, professionals, and supervisors are considered professional. In addressing some questions, the distinction between professional and nonprofessional is secondary to the identification of necessary skills. Early in this inves- tigation, survey pretests and literature on future labor market conditions focused attention on selected catego- ries of professional skills. For highway and street professionals, some of the key skill needs identified at the outset of the study as classifications to examine in depth were data-processing specialists and various kinds of civil engineering skills. Many other fields are essential to highway agencies, including planning, economics, accounting, and law. Generally, however, highway agencies employ only a small percentage of all professionals in these fields, and survey responses did not indicate that shortages in these fields were a pressing concern. Accordingly, less emphasis has been placed on these kinds of professionals. No single professional group, such as engineers, is predominant in the transit industry. Operations and maintenance management professionals, crucial to the transit industry, historically have reached their posi- tions by climbing up the ranks. To an increasing extent, however, transit agencies draw operations, maintenance, and other managers from diverse backgrounds including planning, business, public administration, and engineering.
19 Needs The legislation that called for this Study directed that it include "prevailing methods of recruitment, training, financial and other incentives and disincentives which encourage or discourage retention in service." Supply and demand of professionals ultimately dictate the need for any recruitment technique, training program, or compensation structure. If needed skills will be in short supply, special recruitment techniques, accelerated training and retraining programs, and increased compensa- tion schedules might be warranted. If needed skills will be abundantly available, as has been the case for the past several years, a lesser emphasis on recruitment, training, and compensation might be appropriate. Thus, the crux of the congressional request is the question of which skills and types of professionals will be in short supply. But how is a short supply measured? A wide range of perspectives and indicators are reflected in previous work. Some possible indications of shortages are as follows: A national-policy-goal shortage occurs when the number of trained professionals is insufficient to carry out legislated programs. An unresponsive-supply shortage is the failure of the number of students to choose transportation as a field in response to increased requirements, higher relative salaries, or public lamentations about shortages. This type of shortage is due to a lag in the ability of the educational system to respond to increases in demand on the part of employers. The lag stems from the time it takes to train new professionals or for students to switch curricula and complete a particular educa- tional program. A limited pool of ability or lack of qualified applicants is a definition of a shortage. Job tequirements for professional registration or for specialized educational background, training, or on-the-job experience may preclude the filling of some positions. A controlled-wage shortage occurs if employers are unable or unwilling to pay the market salary. Governmental and educational organizations, whose salary policy is beyond their control, are partic- ularly vulnerable to this kind of shortage.
20 A projected-supply shortfall occurs when projected requirements fall beneath projected supply. A salary-competition shortage occurs when the demand for a specialist increases faster than supply at recent market salaries and as a result competition raises the average salary of that type of specialist relative to others. A shortage of professionals educated in a field among those actually working in the field occurs when the high demand for a skill such as computer specialists attracts professionals from other disciplines. A search-related shortage occurs if an employer must pursue a longer and more expensive process to find the right person for the job. Rapid rates of turnover, such as large numbers of professionals retiring, produce a high-turnover shortage in transportation agencies because of the loss of experienced and skilled workers and the loss of continuity in promotion and hiring patterns. Production delays or quality shortfalls may define a shortage. A transportation agency may appear to have adequate numbers of professionals and suitable skills. But if compromises must be made in the quality of professionals hired, this reflects a form of shortage (12,13). As these varied indicators suggest, many factors bear on whether an agency can meet its professional needs. Among these are shifts in legislated programs, students' perceptions of job opportunities, salaries offered by competing employers, the dynamics of an agency's turn- over, and the like. Because these factors vary from region to region and agency to agency, generalizations about recruitment, training, and compensation cannot accurately describe the situation in every agency. Nevertheless, focusing on the conditions that generally prevail may help agencies facing such conditions to deal with them more effectively, and it may help by providing a reference point against which agencies can identify their unique needs. of all the types of shortages, the most important, the most difficult to measure, and potentially the most insidious is the one revealed through a deterioration in the quality of professional skills and work.
21 Currently there does not appear to be a loss of quality occurring. Agencies are still staffed with a large contingent of experienced professionals. In fact some state transportation agencies that expect an unusually large number of retirements in the next decade, Califor- nia and Texas, for example, report an increase in the quality of new graduates they have recently hired in anticipation of those retirements. With civil engineering enrollments declining and perhaps enrollments in planning schools also (see Chapter 6 and Appendix H), there is a risk in the loss of the number of students selecting transportation- related fields in college and university programs. There is also a risk that declining enrollments could precede a drop in students earning Ph.D.'s and assuming faculty positions in transportation as well as a loss of crucially important research applicable to highways, streets, and mass transit. The educational system serves as long-term insurance for highway and transit agencies against the loss of quality in the professional resources available. It also is a logical place from which agencies can expect to obtain new entrants with a growing battery of skills, knowledge, and ability. This requires students with the following characteristics: A broad-based education: Professionals must gain knowledge, not only in their specialty but also in related or relevant fields, for example, transpor- tation engineers who understand economics and environmental issues and planners who have some depth in engineering and economics. Communication skills: Students must have acquired the ability to speak and write fluently and articu- lately, to listen well, and to express their opinions cogently. Computer skills: The professional should be comfortable with application of computer technology to transportation problem solving, which means some- thing more than mere computer literacy. Analytical skills: Students need to acquire tradi- tional analytical skills useful for technical anal- ysis plus others including statistics. Strategic thinking: This group of skills is defined as problem solving or an implementation orientation; a professional should be able to identify the
22 correct problem, define it properly, and develop solutions sensitive to timing, politics, and other realities of implementation. Entrepreneurship: A professional should have a business orientation, a sense of the bottom line through an understanding of benefits and costs, and the ability to seize opportunities to create organi- zations and mechanisms to develop effective programs and projects. Group dynamics: The professional must be knowledge- able of organizational behavior and the dynamics of groups of all sizes and at all levels. Global perspective: Increasingly transportation problems and solutions reach beyond national bound- aries; the transportation professional should be attuned to global trends and the international implications of transportation decisions. For the academic sector to develop such professionals, not only must curricula change but also there must be continuing support for research that is responsive to change and fosters innovation and creativity. METHODS Most of the past work that has been done on transporta- tion professional needs is too local in its orientation or too outdated to be useful. Many previous examinations of professional needs concern engineering in general, engineering specialties, or other transportation profes- sions, but most of these are nationwide reviews and have little detail relevant to the needs of government trans- portation agencies. (See Appendix A for a review of previous work.) In view of the dearth of pertinent data available, this report relies heavily on survey questionnaires issued by various organizations to employers of trans- portation professionals in order to assist this study: The American Association of State Highway and Trans- portation Officials surveyed all state departments of transportation and highway departments as well as the Federal Highway Administration. All but one state (98 percent) returned the questionnaires (see Appendix B). The American Public Transit Association mailed
23 questionnaires to 350 local transit systems, nearly all the public ones, and a few small private firms. A total of 130 local transit systems (37 percent) responded (see Appendix C). The National Association of Governors' Highway Safety Representatives issued questionnaires to all state highway safety offices. A total of 41 safety offices returned the questionnaire, a response rate of 77 percent (see Appendix D). The American Consulting Engineers Council and the Institute of Transportation Engineers jointly administered questionnaires to 300 civil engineering consulting firms involved in transportation of 30,000 consultant engineering firms nationwide. A total of 115 private consulting firms in transpor- tation responded, a response rate of 38 percent (see Appendix E). The Institute of Transportation Engineers mailed a survey to 200 city and county transportation agencies of 22,000 municipalities and counties. Only 18 surveys were returned (9 percent) (see Appendix F). Because this study relied heavily on data from surveys with widely varying response rates, the inferences drawn from some of the data must be regarded cautiously. Conclusions drawn from survey information about state highway organizations and safety offices are likely to be correct in view of the high response rates--98 and 77 percent, respectively. But response rates for indi- vidual questions and the inability of respondents to interpret the questions the same way in every case reduce confidence in the conclusions. For example, 78 rather than 98 percent of the states provided data on the age distribution of professional engineers, and there is reason to believe that states differed in their interpre- tation of what constitutes a professional engineer, as stated earlier. The reliability of inferences drawn from data furnished by transit agencies and consulting firms is less than it is for states, though the total number of respondents for the transit and consultant surveys exceeded 100. This number of returns permits the drawing of inferences with reasonable confidence and accuracy. The very low number of surveys returned by local agencies means that any inferences drawn from these data are extremely suspect and that barely a hint of the true circumstances
24 has been provided. (Refer to Appendixes B-F for clarifi- cation on the number of respondents answering a particu- lar survey question.) In addition to the surveys, the study relied on several important related efforts that were occurring simulta- neously, including (a) the Transportation Research Board Conference on Surface Transportation Education and Training held in October 1984 in Williamsburg, Virginia (see Appendix H); (b) a National Cooperative Highway Research Program study entitled Human Resource Management and Forecasting: Planning to Meet Future Needs (Project 20-5); (c) the study of the National Research Council's Committee on Education and Utilization of the Engineer; (d) the National Research Council's symposium held in early 1984 entitled Labor Market Conditions for Engi- neers: Is There a Shortage? (13); and (e) a study of the career development and training of transit managers conducted by the Center for Urban Studies at Portland State University. ORGANIZATION OF THIS REPORT In Chapter 2 the professional needs of state departments of transportation and highway agencies are described. The focus is on national requirements to accommodate growth in state highway programs, to replace retiring professionals, and to fill a potential void in skills. In this chapter attention is called to the need for more effective training, automation, and other actions that states are finding increase the productivity of their professionals. In Chapter 3 variations in state retirement rates and replacements needs are examined in detail. In six states more than 50 percent of the professional engineers are eligible to retire. In Chapter 4 professional needs in the mass transit agencies are discussed. Industry growth, attrition, variations in needs among the larger and smaller transit organizations, and the ways found by transit firms to effectively address their skill requirements are described. In Chapter 5 the needs of local, regional, and federal agencies are examined. In this part of the study, the consequences of the retirement of one-third of the county highway engineers during the next 5 to 10 years are examined. Also special professional needs stemming from
25 the large traffic volumes and multiple jurisdictions in metropolitan and other urban areas are pointed out. In Chapter 6 the ability of colleges and universities to produce sufficient engineers for state highway organi- zations is scrutinized. Recently there has been an ample supply of graduating engineers, but a problem may be emerging as the share of all engineering students who select civil engineering continues to decline. Finally this report includes a series of appendixes. Appendix A is a review of related literature and data sources. Appendix B presents the survey responses of state departments of transportation and highway agencies as well as some supplementary detailed statistical tables based on the survey data. Appendix C is a tabulation of survey responses of transit agencies. Appendix D provides a summary of the state highway safety office survey. Appendix E summarizes the survey mailed to civil engineering consulting firms in transportation. Appendix E first presents the responses of large and small firms and second a tabulation of all respondents. Appendix F presents a tabulation of the survey responses of local transportation agencies. Appendix G is a copy of the Oregon Department of Transportation's employee relocation assistance policy. Appendix H presents the findings and conclusions of the Surface Transportation Education and Training Conference held in October 1984 in Williamsburg, Virginia. Biographical information on the members of the study committee for the Transportation Professional Needs Study is provided at the end of this report. CONCLUSIONS In response to a requirement set out in the Surface Transportation Assistance Act of 1982, this study exam- ines future transportation professional needs, defined as follows: future--primarily the coming decade, 1985-1994; transportation--surface transportation modes employing substantial numbers of professionals in public agencies, namely, highway and transit; professional--loosely interpreted to include anyone designated as a professional by virtue of degree, registration, or job title; needs--both numerical counts of supply and demand
26 as well as qualitative observations of where new or different skills will be required. As stipulated in the requesting legislation, this study focuses on the professional needs of public agencies. However, because expert consulting is used extensively to augment the in-house professional capability in trans- portation, attention is given here to consulting engi- neers and other consultants as well. In the next decade, there will be a continued heavy reliance on the automobile, and highway networks will be little different than they are today except in some high growth areas. Transit services will continue to be a crucial element of the nation's urban mobility, although budgetary pressures will lead to increased scrutiny of how this mode is managed. Maintenance and rehabilitation activities will grow in importance. The primary federal, state, and local transportation institutions will remain the same. In addition, computer technology will continue to evolve rapidly and computer problem solving and automation will increase in speed, efficiency, and capability. Certification of professionals to maintain quality will be continued, but at the same time these practices will be reassessed to ensure that they fit future needs and exploit all available sources of skills. The number of women and minorities filling professional positions in transportation agencies will continue to grow; however without concerted action by universities, colleges, and employers, such groups will remain underrepresented throughout the decade. The universities and colleges play a major role in ensuring a high-quality professional work force. They must design future transportation-oriented curricula to furnish students with a broad-based education, strong communication and analytical skills, computer knowledge, and a capacity for strategic thinking and entrepreneur- ship. Curricula will have to be reviewed to ensure that they provide these dimensions, and top-quality faculty is required. Finally, university, industry, and govern- ment interaction is essential to keeping educational programs attuned to employer needs.
27 REFERENCES Public Law 97-424 (Jan. 6, 1983), Surface Transportation Assistance Act of 1982. 96 Stat. 2097. Monthly Labor Review. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, Nov. 1983. U.S. Scientists and Engineers 1980. Report 82-314. National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C., 1982. R.S. Page. Transportation Education and Meeting the Challenge. Keynote address presented at TRB Conference on Surface Transportation Education and Training, Williamsburg, Va., Oct. 1984. A. Weiss. Simple Truths of Japanese Manufacturing. Harvard Business Review, Vol. 62, No. 4, 1984, pp. 119-125. Earned Degrees Conferred. National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education, annual series, 1948-1980 (unpublished 1978-1982). Engineering and Technology Degrees 1984. Engineering Manpower Commission, American Association of Engineering Societies, New York, 1985. Occupational Projections and Training Data. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, Dec. 1982. J.A. Jackson, ed. Professions and Professionalizatjon. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England, 1970. J.B. Cullen. The Structure of Professionalism: A Quantitative Examination. Petrocelli Books, Inc., New York, 1978. Committee on Education and Utilization of the Engineer, National Research Council. Engineering Education and Practice in the U.S.: Foundations of Our Techno-Economic Future. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., in press. H. Folk. The Shortage of Scientists and Engineers. Heath Lexington Books, Lexington, Mass., 1971. Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel, National Research Council. Labor Market Conditions for Engineers: Is There a Shortage? National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1984.
2 State Highway Agencies As a group, state highway agencies employ more transpor- tation professionals than does any other type of govern- merit organization. Nationwide, state highway agencies employ about 41,000 professionals--30,000 civil engi- neers, just under 2,000 computer specialists, and a similar number of planners. About 6,000 lawyers, accountants, and other professionals make up the remain- der of the state professional work force. Although three of four professionals in state highway agencies are civil engineers, the vast majority of employees are technicians and other nonprofessionals such as maintenance personnel, clerical staff, and administrative assistants (Figure 2-1) PLANNERS 1% COMPUTER SPECIALISTS 1% OTHER PROFESSIONAL 3% CIVIL ENGINEERS 12% TECHNICIANS 17% FIGURE 2-1 Composition of work force of state highway agencies. 28
29 PAST TRENDS IN EMPLOYMENT BY STATE HIGHWAY AGENCIES During the past decade, employment in state highway agencies has generally moved in parallel with the nation's highway construction and repair activities (Figure 2-2). When the construction of the Interstate system began following the passage of the 1956 Federal- Aid Highway Act, national spending for highways grew rapidly. Measured in constant 1984 dollars, the highway program grew from $27.5 billion in 1956 to $49.6 billion in 1971--an average growth of about 4 percent per year. Total employment in state highway agencies also expanded during this same period--from 203,000 in 1956 to 297,000 in 1970--an average increase of 2.5 percent per year (Table 2-1). The next decade--1971 to 1981--brought a decline in the nation's highway activities when viewed in constant dollars. The purchasing power of state highway agencies fell from $49.6 billion in 1971 to $29.8 billion in 1981. Although the size of the highway program appears to have grown in terms of nominal-dollar spending, inflation in construction costs was rapid, and the real- dollar value of the program shrank by about 5 percent per year. Employment in state highway agencies also fell--from 297,000 in 1970 to 244,000 in 1981--a decline of about 1.8 percent per year. 300,000 280,000 uj 260,000 >- 240,000 uj 220,000 200,000 50c, 40 Cl) .4 0' 0 30 Iz w 0 'I- 25 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 YEAR FIGURE 2-2 State highway employment and spending (1-4).
30 TABLE 2-1 Total State Highway Disbursements and Employment (1-4) Total Total Full-Time Equiva- Disbursements Disbursements lent Employment in Current Dollars in 1984 Dollars in State Highway Year (billions) (billions) Organizations 1956 6.896 27.474 203,000a 1957 7.702 29.397 203,000 1958 8.479 33.121 234,000 1959 9.277 37.865 232,000 1960 8.957 37.321 240,000 1961 9.627 39.781 252,000 1962 10.451 41.308 260,000 1963 11.248 43.597 266,000 1964 12.018 46.223 276,000 1965 12.437 46.063 284,000 1966 13.631 47.330 287,000 1967 14.360 48.027 287,000 1968 15.504 50.013 293,000 1969 16.259 48.534 292,000 1970 18.040 47.979 297,000 1971 19.543 49.602 293,000 1972 20.072 48.483 286,000 1973 20.785 45.283 284,000 1974 21.635 34.671 277,000 1975 21.130 33.754 271,000 1976 21.391 35.357 259,000 1977 21.442 33.090 258,000 1978 23.908 30.929 260,000 1979 26.851 29.186 257,000 1980 30.136 28.538 255,000 1981 30.220 29.773 244,000 1982 29.929 31.471 241,000 1983 32.402 34.143 239,000 1984 37194b 37194b aEstimated full-time and part-time employment in 1956 was 212,000. bEstjmated by Federal Highway Administration. CEstjmated by Transportation Professional Needs Study. Based on growth in agency employment shown in Table B-3. During the early 1980s, both highway spending and highway employment started to increase again. The passage of the Surface Transportation Assistance Act of 1982, slow inflation in construction costs, and increased state support for highways combined to increase real spending for highways from $29.8 billion in 1981 to more than $40 billion in 1984. Employment in state highway agencies likewise began to increase again. In short, the volume of highway activity (measured in real-dollar spending) and total employment in state
31 highway agencies have generally moved in the same direc- tion, although overall employment levels have tended to lag slightly behind spending. Limited data on the number of professionals in state highway agencies indicate that professional employment also varies directly with the level of program activity. For example, survey results from 31 states show that between 1975 and 1981 the number of professional engi- neers in state agencies dropped by 9.6 percent. At the same time real highway spending fell 5.0 percent. These trends say nothing about the private sector, which has always had a large complement of professionals to assist public agencies. Data on trends are not available, but according to the American Consulting Engineers Council, in 1984 throughout the United States there were an estimated 9,000 civil engineering firms in transportation employing 66,000 civil engineers and many other professionals. FUTURE GROWTH IN EMPLOYMENT During the coming decade, employment in state highway agencies is expected to grow at around 1.8 percent per year as the nation continues to repair, maintain, and expand its highway system. Future shifts in highway program spending will shape future transportation professional needs in state high- way agencies. Some growth in highway programs is antic- ipated because the economy as a whole will be growing, perhaps by 2 to 4 percent per year during the next 5 to 10 years, according to various forecasts. The Council of Economic Advisors forecasts that the real gross national product (GNP) will grow at 4 percent per year until 1990 (5), the Congressional Budget Office projects real GNP growth of around 3.4 percent through 1990, and several of the major private economic forecasting firms project long-term real GNP growth of about 2.5 to 3 per- cent per year [Chase Econometrics' moderate projection of annual growth in GNP is approximately 3.0 percent through 1993; Data Resources, Inc., projects annual growth between 2.0 and 3.0 percent through 1995 (6,7)]. Although the highway sector may not develop at the same speed as the rest of the economy, some growth in this activity is probable, if for no other reason than to accommodate the increasing amounts of highway traffic that the future will bring.
32 Travel on the nation's highways increased by around 2.4 percent per year between 1975 and 1982 after some leveling due to the 1973 oil embargo (1), and similar growth is anticipated in the future. Both the amount of repair and the amount of new road construction derive in part from the volume of travel. Although there is no immediate and direct link between growth in travel and growth in highway spending, the Federal Highway Adminis- tration (FHWA) forecasts that future growth in travel will average 2.0 to 2.8 percent per year through 1995, just under most of the projected rates of growth for the economy (8). Although the federal and state governments have not adjusted highway user fees each year as travel increases, nonetheless there has been a sequence of state and federal increases in the past. In the last several years, the user fees that finance highway programs have been increasing with economic growth and increased highway use. State taxes on motor fuels (Highway Users Federation for Safety and Mobility, unpublished data), which finance about half of the nation's highway bill, have risen since 1980 after having declined during the four previous years (Table 2-2). There appears to be no impediment to financing moderate future program growth. Federal spending on highways increased substantially under the Surface Transportation Assistance Act of 1982. TABLE 2-2 State Motor Fuel Tax Receipts, 1975-1982 (1) Receipts Year (1984 $ billions) 1975 13.3 1976 14.6 1977 14.4 1978 12.6 1979 10.6 1980 9.1 1981 9.9 1982 11.2
33 This act raised the federal tax on motor fuels and other road-user fees, and increased total federal authoriza- tions for highways from $10.0 billion in 1982 to $14.0 billion in 1986 (9). (All figures are in constant 1984 dollars assuming that inflation averages 4.7 percent per year after 1984.) The increase in federal support from 1982 (the last year before the Surface Transportation Assistance Act of 1982 took effect) until 1986 (the last year of full authorizations under the act) corresponds to an annual growth of 6.4 percent. Some short-run forecasts of construction activity predict growth of 5 to 7 percent per year over the next few years (Table 2-3). Because federal spending for highways represents little more than one-quarter of total highway spending, this increase in federal spending represents an increase of 1.9 percent per year in overall disbursements for highways. Considering all of the foregoing growth trends--in the national economy, in highway travel, and in state and federal spending for highways--an assumed annual growth in highway spending of about 2.5 percent per year appears reasonable in light of past spending patterns and anticipated growth in related activities (Figure 2-3). The projections of professional needs developed here are based in part on this growth rate. Professional staff levels will probably increase less rapidly than highway spending, however. Increases in productivity may reduce the need for professional staff. The projections presented here assume that productivity will grow at 0.7 percent per year. This is well below the growth of 1.6 to 1.9 percent per year that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects for private- sector productivity between 1982 and 1990 (11), but it is the rate at which highway agency productivity actual- ly increased from 1971 to 1982 when productivity is measured as program funds expended in constant dollars per state highway agency employee. In view of the previous assumptions, net employment in state highway agencies will increase at about 1.8 percent per year (growth of 2.5 percent less productiv- ity gains of 0.7 percent) (Figure 2-4). This net growth appears roughly in line with the national average: BLS forecasts that national employment will grow in the range of 1.4 to 2.3 percent per year throughout the remainder of the 1980s (11).
TABLE 2-3 Recent and Forecast Construction Contracts, 1982-1985 (10) Historical Forecast Percent Change Type of (1984 $ millions) (1984 $ millions) 1982- 1983- 1984- Work 1982 1983 1984 1985 1983 1984 1985 Highways 9,884 12,328 13,200 13,837 +25 +7 +5 Bridges 3,680 3,898 4,000 4,286 +6 +3 +7 Mass transit 736 527 540 572 -28 +2 +6 Note: 50-state totals.
35 55 50 45 0 O 40 C CO 35 u- 30 0 Cl) 25 20 co 0 . 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 YEAR FIGUEE 2-3 State highway expenditures, 1960-1995 (1). Projected net growth of 1.8 percent per year for state transportation professionals appears toward the low end of the range compared with the recent projections of civil engineering employment. In one projection, BLS forecasts that civilian employment of civil engineers will increase by 2.7 to 3.0 percent per year in the coming decade (11). In another, the National Science Foundation (NSF) forecasts growth of 1.3 to 2.9 percent 1.8% GROWTH i1k\1 2.0% 3.1% RETIREMENT AND 1.9% DEATH HIGHWAY ALL CIVIL ENGINEERING FIGURE 2-4 Source of new jobs each year, 1984-1995.
36 per year between 1982 and 1987 for civilian and military civil engineers (12). Neither of these studies examined state highway agencies alone, but another study projected that the number of engineers of all types in state government would decline by 1995 (13). Thus, these higher growth rates for all types of civil engineering do not necessarily conflict with the assumptions made here. REPLACEMENT OF CURRENT PROFESSIONALS In addition to new jobs created through growth, as discussed earlier, a large number of professional posi- tions become open as employees retire, shift jobs, die, or become disabled. In recent years, attrition has generally created a larger number of professional open- ings in state highway agencies than has program growth. Because of the expansion of highway activities follow- ing World War II and the beginning of the Interstate system, a disproportionate number of engineers entered state highway agencies during the 1950s, and many agen- cies now find that they have a larger-than-normal frac- tion of their key professional work force at or nearing retirement age. Nationwide, this development is apparent from survey results on the age composition of the current profes- sional work force in state highway agencies (Table 2-4). Extrapolating from complete information for 19 states, 60 percent of the nation's management-level engineers in state agencies will be eligible to retire within 5 years; one-quarter could retire with full benefits. The states anticipate that attrition due to retirement as well as other causes will amount to 13.5 percent of management engineers during the next 5 years and to 18.4 percent of other professional engineers (Table 2-5). Age-distribution data indicate that an average of 3.1 percent of all engineers in state highway agencies will retire or die each year.1 This rate is substan- tially higher than it has been in the past, and it is nearly two-thirds higher than that for civil engineers 1Tkiis is based on state-specific data similar to the national totals shown in Table 2-4 (see footnote to Table 2-4).
37 TABLE 2-4 Age Distribution of State Highway Engineers Age Type of Professional Management Number Percent Other Number Percent Less than 26 2 0.03 1,054 4.3 26-35 270 4.9 4,606 18.8 36-45 1,623 29.5 6,738 27.5 46-55 2,266 41.2 7,546 30.8 56-60 1,023 18.6 3,136 12.8 61-65 293 5.3 1,274 5.2 Over 65 28 0.5 147 0.6 Total 5,505 24,500 Source: American Association of State Highway and Trans- portation Officials (AASHTO) survey of state transporta- tion and highway departments for the Transportation Professional Needs Study, 1984. Note: These data are consistent with the nationwide expected retirement rate of 3.1 percent per year discussed in the text. For example, the data in Table 2.4 show that 12.8 percent of all "others' (nonmanagement) state highway engineers are between 56 and 60 years of age; 5.2 percent are between 61 and 65; and 0.6 are over 65. If the average retirement age is 62, the approximate rate of retirement during the next 5 years can be computed as follows. Three-fifths of those in the 56-60 age group will retire, as will 100 percent of those in the 61-65 and over-65 groups. For nonmanagement engi- neers, this means that (0.6) x 12.8 + 5.2 + 0.6 = 13.5 percent will retire in 5 years, or 2.7 percent per year. Similarly, the corresponding computation for management engineers yields 17 percent retirement over 5 years, or 3.4 percent per year. Using similar computations and the actual average retirement ages reported by individual organizations yields a nationwide expected retirement rate of 3.1 percent per year for state highway engineers. Numbers are extrapolated for 50 states based on 39 states reporting complete age-distribution data.
TABLE 2-5 Retirement Eligibility, Attrition, and Hiring Plans of State Highway Agencies, 1985-1989 Management-Level Other Professional Engineers Engineers Percentage Percentage of 1984 of 1984 Number Employment Number Employment Eligible to retire 1,136 61.0 4,005 40.6 Eligible to retire with fu1l benefits 497 26.7 1,657 16.8 Attrition (due to all causes) 251 13.5 1,814 18.4 Number planning to hire 251 13.5 2,010 21.3 Source: AASHTO survey of state transportation and highway departments for the Transportation Professional Needs Study, 1984. Note: Only 19 agencies reported complete information on retirement eligibility, attrition, and hiring plans for both management and submanagement engineers for the 1984-1989 period.
39 generally. About 1.9 percent of all civil engineers in the country will be lost through attrition on the basis of NSF estimates (12). The high national rate of retire- ment for engineers in state agencies can also be contrasted with the national retirement rate for transit professionals, 2.3 percent per year. Further, many state agencies face retirement patterns far in excess of the national average. FUTURE PROFESSIONAL NEEDS IN STATE HIGHWAY AGENCIES Combining both retirements and growth yields a nation- wide need for new engineers in highway agencies equiva- lent to 4.9 percent of the total engineering work force in these agencies, or about 1,450 more employees per year (Table 2-6). Nationwide, this need is notdiffi- cult to fill. The nation's colleges and universities graduate about 10,500 bachelor's-degree civil engineers and 3,000 master's-degree civil engineers each year, and if state highway agencies continue to attract their TABLE 2-6 Requirements of State Highway Agencies for Civil Engineers, 1984-1989 Year Total Number of Engineers Employed Number of Engineers Net Growtha Required Attritionb for Total 1984 29,969 529 916 1,450 1985 30,508 539 933 1,470 1986 31,057 549 949 1,500 1987 31,616 559 966 1,530 1988 32,185 569 984 1,550 1989 32,764 579 1,002 1,580 aAllowing for productivity improvements. bRetirements and deaths.
40 proportional share of these graduates, they will continue to be able to hire in a market where there are more candidates than jobs for the next 2 or 3 years (Figure 2-5). After that time, the difficulty in hiring could increase somewhat if current trends continue unchanged. Yet at least three departures from these trends might be anticipated. Civil engineering could attract a constant or even an increasing share of engineering students instead of a declining share as in past years. The declining popularity of civil engineering within university programs relative to other fields of engineering derives in part from civil engineer- ing's relatively limited job prospects. As this outlook brightens because of growth and high rates of retirement, more students will hear about poten- tial jobs in civil engineering and more students may select civil engineering as a field, thereby helping to avert any shortage of candidates that might occur if current trends were to persist unchanged. More graduates of civil engineering programs could fill professional positions in which they practice 1,700 u, 1,600- 1,5001- 1,400 - 1,300- U. 1.200- 0 - CIVIL ENGINEERS NEEDED 4, w ---- CIVIL ENGINEERS GRADUATING co 200 AND SUPPLIED TO STATE HIGHWAY I AGENCIES STATE'S SHARE OF ALL z 100 GRADUATES) 01 I I 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 YEAR FIGURE 2-5 Outlook for state highway agencies.
41 civil engineering rather than shifting to other fields. In fields where skills are in short supply, such as computer specialties, more than one out of every two jobs are filled by persons trained in other areas. Figure 2-6 is a reflection of labor market adjustments--field switching--in order to accommodate shortages and surpluses of personnel trained in a specific discipline. The high ratio of noncomputer specialists holding computer jobs to those educated in computer science reflects the large number switching into computer fields from other disciplines. The reverse has been true of civil engineers: Only 80 percent or so practice civil engineering and the remainder work in other areas (15). As the market for civil engineering graduates improves, fewer graduates are likely to leave the field for positions elsewhere. Highway agencies facing greater-than-normal needs may be able to attract a larger share of civil engineers relative to private industry and other potential employers of civil engineers. State highway agencies employ about 17 percent of all practicing civil engineers, and a larger share might be drawn there if needed and if these agen- cies can successfully compete for them. Other projections of civil engineering employment, COMPUTER SPECIALISTS ENGINEERS ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENTISTS SOCIAL SCIENTISTS 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 RATIO FIGURE 2-6 Field switching (14).
42 however, show nonhighway applications growing more rapidly than the highway-agency jobs assumed here. This will tend to make it more difficult for high- way agencies to continue to attract a constant share of graduates. These kinds of likely adjustments mean that there probably will not be a shortage in the number of new civil engineering graduates in the next 5 to 10 years. Instead, the problems faced by many state agencies include not being as active as possible in recruiting new graduates; facing abnormally large requirements to replace senior and mid-level positions for which new graduates are not sufficiently prepared (although the private sector can fill this gap to some extent); and finding that professional employees are not willing to accept internal job rotations that help to develop seasoned professionals because of high residential loca- tion costs and other factors. In addition, the declining role of civil engineering within education programs may be creating some long-run difficulties. The best students may not be entering civil engineering. Highly publicized fields like elec- trical engineering, computer science, robotics, and genetic engineering will continue to be attractive and to have the greates.t demand. Also, a decline in the number of U.S. citizens earning doctorates in civil engineering together with continued lack of growth in enrollments in civil engineering departments may eventu- ally reduce the number and quality of professors who train graduate civil engineers. At the same time the focus of the highway program is shifting. New construction projects, including major ones, have continued to occur and new skill- and labor- intensive interchanges, intersections, and lanes are constantly being added. The main emphasis of highway programs is changing, however, toward rehabilitation of existing facilities, which requires not only the same types of skills needed by engineers in the past but also new ones. More emphasis is being placed on the economic, safety, and environmental aspects of highway transpor- tation. The technology used by highway professionals is also changing as computers, satellite photography, new materials, and other new technologies alter how tasks are performed. The incentives to encourage professional development may be changing as increasing numbers of households become two-income families. More and more women have
43 been entering engineering fields and in turn entering highway agencies. Taken together, the changes occurring within and out- side state highway agencies create some distinct profes- sional needs. Drawing attention to these needs may help these agencies take whatever steps are appropriate to fill or reduce them, as the case may be. Six of these needs, which are particularly pressing, are discussed in the following sections: Training of mid-level and management engineers, Shifting the mix of skills needed, Using consultants to meet selected skill requirements, Making greater use of technicians, Fully exploiting the potential of computers, and Maintaining a competitive position in recruiting entry-level professionals. States, already attuned to these needs, are taking a variety of actions to make their agencies more produc- tive. A substantial number of organizations have reported that concentrating on training and use of tech- nicians, consultants, and computers has had a large effect on their ability to meet their professional staff requirements (Table 2-7). Training of Mid-Level and Management Engineers Many state highway agencies will soon face a pressing need to refill management positions with seasoned, broadly experienced engineers. Nationwide, one of seven managers in state highway agencies is likely to retire within 5 years. Most of these positions will probably be filled through promotion from engineering positions, as they have been in the past. The magnitude of this cycle of replacement, however, is large, because a much- larger-than-normal increase in state highway employment occurred between 1945 and 1960, particularly while the Interstate system was being constructed. At the present time, nearly 25 percent of managers in state highway agencies are 56 years old or older (Table 2-4). Assuming that almost all of these, managers retire at age 62, when professionals are eligible for social security benefits (also the mode of the retire- ment age among states), then about 930 managers will
44 TABLE 2-7 Actions Most Effective in Meeting Professional Needs Number of States Citing &ction Large Effect Use technicians for construction inspection 20 Use consultants for preliminary engineering 19 Increase promotion within agency 18 Introduce a construction or maintenance management system 17 Use computer-aided design and drafting 12 Use technicians for lead design work under supervision of engineer 12 Use technicians for project management 12 Reorganize agency 12 Expand management training courses 11 Provide student internships, fellowships, summer employment 11 Source: AASHTO survey of state transportation and high- way departments for the Transportation Professional Needs Study, 1984. retire before 1990, an average of 19 per state. A similar number or perhaps an even larger number is like- ly to retire in the following 5 years, bringing the total to nearly 2,000 during the next decade. Because these retirements are not evenly spread, many states will face a turnover of a substantial fraction of their senior staff, beyond the fluctuations in attrition that
45 normally occur. The potential dimensions of this turnover in specific agencies are explored in the following chapter. In the aggregate, there are nearly 18,200 engineers in the 36-55 age group, and many of these will probably be promoted to replace the approximately 2,000 managers who will retire by 1995. Although there are numerous replacements available throughout the country, and there- fore this is not a national problem, there are likely to be many specific situations in which suitable in-house candidates are unavailable or inadequately prepared. Many states will intensify their special training programs to prepare professional staff to assume the responsibilities of managers who retire. In response to a survey question asking which steps agencies had taken to increase the effectiveness of their professional work force, it was found that various training activities are widely used and have proven beneficial. Almost all states and the District of Columbia (43 of 50 respon- dents) have introduced or expanded their in-house management training courses, 47 have sent professionals to management training courses outside the agency, and 39 have introduced or expanded technical training programs for professionals. Although relatively few states reported that individual steps of this sort had a large effect, most reported the effect to be moderate. One form of professional development that many agen- cies rely on is to rotate a professional's job assign- ments--to different functions, different divisions, or different responsibilities--so that professionals develop a better understanding of the mission and work- ings of the agency as a whole, thereby preparing them to manage effectively. As engineers and managers are rotated throughout the organizational structure, they gain the experience and insight necessary for senior positions. Job rotation often requires physical relocation, however. For example, supervisory assignments may entail overseeing activities in some particular region of a state. Some state administrators report that they find increasing resistance among their professional staff to the acceptance of assignments that require relocation, which thwarts one of the channels for developing manage- rial talent. Although the increasing proportion of two- earner households may impede some relocations, the factor most often cited as probably the biggest barrier is the high cost of relocation. Taking out a new mort-
46 gage may mean accepting a higher mortgage interest rate. Selling a home amid current economic conditions may entail making two sets of house payments until the previous home has been sold or it may entail selling the former home at an unattractive price. Although most states pay the transportation moving expenses of employees who are reassigned to new positions that require relocation, only two states (Oregon and Wyoming) compensate employees to ease the inconvenience of moving or to pay for such costs as increased mortgage rates, reduced selling price, and real estate fees. For example, Oregon will purchase management and executive service employees' homes and pay 94 percent of the appraised value to facilitate relocation to a new head- quarters at least 35 miles away (a copy of Oregon's relocation policy is shown in Appendix G). This appears to be an effective method for removing one of the key barriers to professional reassignment, and other states facing exceptional future needs for new senior profes- sionals might find that enactment of similar provisions could substantially improve their ability to develop the needed talent in house. In addition, new training programs might be specifi- cally geared to the development of professional engineers so that they can acquire all the skills and perspectives needed to replace retiring top employees. For example, for 20 years the University of Mississippi's Highway and Transportation Management Institute has offered a 3-week program each year to teach general management theory and concepts generally to civil engineers in management positions or entering such positions. In addition, the University of Virginia recently began a program for briefing new top-level highway administrators on the key issues, trends, and changes that affect the agencies. New programs of a similar sort targeted at management engineers might meet the special developmental needs caused by the accelerated rate of retirements from state highway agencies anticipated in the coming years. Shift in the Mix of Skills Needed During the past 20 years there has been a shift in total highway disbursements at all levels of government from capital improvements to maintenance (Figure 2-7). This trend is reflected in part by a shift in functional responsibilities of highway engineers at the state level.
47 100 DEBT SERVICE 90 LAW ENF0 NT 80 IMSTION 70 MAINTENANCE 60 I- 50 40 30 CAPITAL OUTLAY 20 10 0I- I I I I I I I I I 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 YEAR FIGURE 2-7 Distribution of total highway disbursements, 1962-1982 (8). (Note: A definition change occurred in the mid-1970s that may account for some of the dip in capital outlay.) In 1954, 76 percent of the engineers were involved in location studies, design, and construction and 5 percent in maintenance (16). In 1984, 66 percent of the engi- neers were involved in design and construction and more than 9 percent in maintenance. Today few engineers work on location studies for new highways. State highway agencies anticipate further changes in program emphasis during the next 5 years. Nearly 90 percent of the states expect rehabilitation work to increase, 70 percent anticipate that bridge work will
48 increase, and 69 percent expect maintenance to increase. Most states (54 percent) anticipate that their traffic operations work will remain at current levels. Although some states expect major construction activities to increase, a larger number expect a decrease in this activity (Table 2-8). TABLE 2-8 change in Highway Program Emphasis, 1985-1989 Percentage of States Responding Program More Less Same Rehabilitation 88 0 12 Bridges and structures 70 2 28 Maintenance 68 2 30 Traffic operations 46 0 54 Major construction 24 34 42 Source: AASHTO survey of state transportation and highway departments for the Transportation Professional Needs Study, 1984. States indicated that a 25 percent increase in the real-dollar value of their highway program would partic- ularly increase their need for three types of skills: highway design, construction inspection, and maintenance management. States were particularly emphatic in their need for more computer programming and systems analysis skills as well as rehabilitation and recycling skills (Table 2-9). In addition, numerous states said that they would require more of the following skills: structural engi- neering, maintenance management, construction inspection, traffic handling and operations, inspection by techni- cians, highway design, safety, and transportation system management.
49 TABLE 2-9 change in Skill Requirements, 1985-1989 Skill Number Greater Need Responding Relative Less Need for Need Increase Greatest Increase Needed Computer programming and systems analysis 43 0 43 Rehabilitation and recycling 33 0 33 Moderate Increase Needed Structural engineering 22 1 21 Maintenance management 21 0 21 Construction inspection 22 2 20 Traffic handling and operations 20 0 20 Inspection (technician) 21 2 19 Nighway design 19 2 17 Safety 16 0 16 Transportation system management 17 2 15 Possible Increase Needed Construction management 17 5 12 Pro)ect management (technician) 13 2 11 Planning 15 4 11 Legal 13 4 9 Technician skills (all types) 20 11 9 Financial, business, and economic analysis 6 2 4 Least Increase Needed Accounting 3 1 2 Supervisory 7 5 2 Drafting (technician) 14 12 2 Surveying (technician) 9 8 1 Middle management 6 7 -1 Environmental impact analysis 7 11 -4 Source: AASHTO.survey of State transportation and highway departments for the Transportation Professional Needs Study, 1984. Collectively states expect below-average growth in some skills, notably construction management, planning, legal work, and financial, business, and economic anal- ysis as well as project management by technicians. The skill needs that states expect the least diff i- culty in meeting are accounting, supervisory, drafting and surveying by technicians, middle management, and environmental impact analysis.
50 Although the states foresee many shifts in the future mix of professional activities, two dramatic shifts stand out. One is the increased need for computer specialists because of the rapid diffusion of office automation, microcomputers, computer-aided drafting and design, and expanded mainframe data base management systems. The impact of the data-processing revolution on the profes- sional needs of state highway agencies is discussed later in this chapter. The other clear shift is toward more rehabilitation and maintenance and the growing complexity of rehabili- tation work. For example, right-of-way acquisition to widen existing highways in urban areas often is extremely costly and traffic control poses special problems while roadwork is occurring. Moreover, states must mitigate adverse social, economic, and environmental impacts that arise when reconstruction or other rehabilitation occurs in densely populated metropolitan areas. Nor is reha- bilitation work necessarily less demanding of engineering skill as is often presumed. On the contrary, rehabili- tation may require adjustments in pavement design to facilitate recycled material, special traffic control measures to ensure safe conditions during reconstruction, and other more complex treatments than the tasks associ- ated with new construction. The growing complexity of rehabilitation requires more engineering and other types of skills. During the next decade the mix of work will .continue to change, and so will the technology supporting profes- sionals and society's expectations regarding safety, the environment, economic development, and the quality of transportation facilities and services. As these changes occur, agencies should review their certification prac- tices to ensure that the necessary professional skills will be available where they are needed. Safety will continue to receive increased emphasis throughout the coming decade. Although all state high- way professionals will find their tasks cihanging in response to safety priorities and advances, the partic- ular responsibility for improving highway safety lies with the governors' highway safety representatives and the state safety offices set up under the National High- way Safety Act of 1966. Congress has appropriated $136.5 million for this program in 1985 and the National High- way Traffic and Safety Administration and FHWA have targeted the funding mainly at six national priority programs:
51 Drunk driving, Occupant protection, Police and traffic services, Emergency medical services, Traffic records, and Safety, operational, construction, and improvement activities. The National Association of Governors' Highway safety Representatives surveyed the state safety offices for this study in order to determine historical staffing trends and future needs and thus what additional skills may be required from 1984 through 1989 (see Appendix D). From 1980 to 1984 in-house staff declined by 10.8 per- cent in 40 state safety offices, from 636 to 567, and reliance on staff outside the safety offices declined 22 percent. Although the overall size of the safety offices decreased, staff and skill requirements for the drunk driving and occupant protection programs increased in absolute terms and relative to the other programs. During the next 5 years, safety offices expect to continue to have the greatest staff and skill require- ments in these programs as well as in emergency medical programs. Using Consultants to Meet Selected Skill Requirements State highway agencies faced with large or unusual professional needs may also find it expedient to use more outside consultants. Because of its massive scale, the consulting engineer sector provides a substantial back-up capability that states can tap. Civil engineer- ing consulting firms employ more than twice as many civil engineers than do state departments of transportation. Public agencies may turn to consulting engineers to design transportation facilities, manage projects, prepare plans, provide broker services, or conduct special studies. Consulting firms are staffed with experienced and creative professionals who generally have been tested in the competitive marketplace. Many consultants previously worked for federal, state, and local highway organizations. Some state agencies rely on consulting engineers and other consultants only occasionally, preferring to use in-house staff whenever possible. Agencies have numerous
52 high-quality professionals, and are inclined to use their own resources and stretch them as far as they can. Many states are hesitant to use consultants because of the loss of direct control over the activity, the time consumed initiating a project and negotiating changes to a contract, and the need to acclimate a consultant to the agency's procedures. These organizations purchase consulting skills if the needed expertise is not avail- able in house, if workloads suddenly rise and time is insufficient to hire full-time staff, or if it is neces- sary to overcome inertia or conflict or to introduce new or broader viewpoints. Some highway agencies already rely heavily on consul- tants. The reasons may be a previous large reduction in force, organizational barriers making it difficult to hire the necessary skills, a determination that the private sector can perform certain tasks more efficiently than the public sector, or satisfying a public demand for less government control. Hiring of consultants can also be a way to overcome salary limitations that make it difficult to acquire various specialized skills. According to responses to the survey AASHTO adxninis- tered to the states (Appendix B), the use of consulting engineers among state departments of transportation is already widespread for various tasks, notably preliminary engineering and project inspection. Forty-five state highway agencies report that they use consultants for preliminary engineering to various degrees, and 19 of these report that this has a large effect on meeting their staff needs or productivity. Twenty-two states use consultants for project inspection. Responses of 40 states to a survey that TRB adminis- tered to all the states in summer 1984 generally corroborate these findings. Between 72 and 89 percent of these states contract out part of their location studies and surveys, environmental analyses, geotechni- cal studies, and right-of-way appraisal and acquisition work. About one-third of the states let contracts for comprehensive planning studies, impact studies, traffic counts, or transit studies. In construction more than half the state agencies contract out part of their project inspection and materials testing. Forty-two percent of the states contract for project management and supervision. Responses to survey questionnaires sent to consulting engineering firms reveal that they have a similar view - to that of the states regarding the type of highway work
53 that will occur and the skills required in the next 5 years (see Appendix E). Nearly four-fifths of the consulting engineering firms expect rehabilitation work to increase and only about one-tenth believe that it will decline. Nearly three-fourths expect bridge and structure work to increase. About half the firms expect traffic operations work to grow. More construction, construction management, and maintenance work are fore- seen, but work in these areas is expected not to grow as much as rehabilitation, bridge, and traffic operations work. The most important skill requirements that consulting engineering firms anticipate within their own organiza- tions in the next 5 years, in order of importance, are those of computer operators, project management (as opposed to construction management), construction inspectors, structural engineering specialists, computer programmers, highway designers, computer systems analysts, drafters, traffic operations engineers, and supervisory personnel. If faced with shortages of in-house professional skills, states may find it useful to employ consultants to perform functions normally done by state employees. Under normal circumstances, the key question in using consultants is whether they are more cost-effective than in-house staff in performing a task. States may wish to sharpen their procedures for making this assessment. Making Greater Use of Technicians Future Need Some states will turn to expanded use of technicians to help meet future staff needs. This can free engineers from many routine activities by reserving them for the most complex and demanding tasks. The delegation of tasks to technicians must be done carefully to avoid loss of engineering oversight. For example, there have been reports that construction inspection has suffered in some instances where technicians have assumed respon- sibilities best left to engineers. Technicians working under the direction of engineers carry out proven or routine techniques involving analysis, problem solving, testing, designing facilities, technical writing, and project inspection, and management.
54 At present technicians in highway organizations princi- pally work in six areas: construction, design, mainte- nance, materials testing, surveying, and traffic opera- tions. more than 90 percent of the states use techni- cians for construction inspection, 60 percent for project management, and 60 percent for lead highway design work under the supervision of engineers. Construction technicians inspect projects and occasion- ally supervise construction. Design technicians prepare plans, specifications, and estimates for proposed highway construction projects. At the entry level a design tech- nician is likely to be a drafter, at the intermediate level to be involved in all aspects of highway design, and at the top level to have lead responsibility for design of a large project. Maintenance technicians interpret plans and specifica- tions, schedule projects and personnel, apply knowledge of materials and chemicals, and are familiar with the proper and safe use of equipment. Technicians also do laboratory and field testing of highway materials such as aggregates, asphalts, concrete, soils, paints, and metals for purposes of quality control and developing improved construction and maintenance procedures. Surveying technicians read plans, take care of equipment, prepare topographic maps, conduct surveys, and are knowl- edgeable in some areas of photogramxnetry. Finally, traffic operations technicians make traffic studies and aid in traffic control (17). Technicians are not new to the nation's highway organi- zations. About 41,000 technicians work in state highway organizations, a ratio of 1.4 technicians per engineer. Most states have between one and two technicians per engineer, although a few states make substantially more use of them (Figure 2-8). Nor do technicians currently pose a problem in terms of high rates of retirement. Most technicians are less than 46 years old, and only 11.5 percent are older than 55 (Table 2-10). During the next 5 years 19 states estimate that 27 percent of their current technician work force will be eligible to retire; 14 percent will be eligible to retire with full benefits; 13 percent will leave because of other attrition; and replacements and additions equaling 17 percent of the technician work force will be hired. The role of technicians could increase considerably as highway technology changes, as the highway program shifts its focus more toward rehabilitation, and as further advances in automation change the character of engineer-
55 16 15 14 13 12 LU ,- 11 10 4 I- Cl) U- 08 cc LU 5 2 4 3 2 1 <0.99 1.00-1.99 2.00-2.99 3.00-3.99 >4.00 RATIO OF TECHNICIANS TO ENGINEERS FIGURE 2-8 Use of technicians (35 states reporting). ing functions. BLS forecasts that civil engineering technicians are one of the 10 fastest growing occupations in the country and that these jobs will increase by more than 50 percent during the next decade (11). The ability of computers to perform calculations rapidly and analyze alternatives may change the character of engineering more than anything else by freeing engi- neers from doing routine mathematics. Microcomputers with their tailor-made software, quick turnaround time, and ease of use can emancipate engineers from tedious and repetitious calculations and enable them to concen- trate on management, research, and technical decision making. One possible outcome of the application of computers is that as more and more types of engineering calculations become routine with the help of computers, technicians will increasingly perform these calculations. To offset the risks inherent in having these tasks done by technicians who do not understand the underlying engi- neering principles, the education and training of techni- cians may need to grow commensurately (18).
56 TABLE 2-10 Age Composition of Technicians Age Number Percent Less than 26 1,691 6.4 26-35 6,629 25.0 36-45 8,647 32.7 46-55 6,474 24.5 56-60 2,052 7.8 61-65 857 3.2 Over 65 126 0.5 Source: AASHTO survey of state transportation and high- way departments for the Transportation Professional Needs Study, 1984. Note: 39 states reporting. Another possible outcome is that microcomputers and particularly computer-aided design and drafting (CADD) will allow engineers to perform most of the design work quickly, do calculations, and produce plan sheets for some types of projects without the assistance of technicians. The future role of engineers vis--vis technicians will probably vary from one application to another as well as from state to state. Some organizations will probably continue to use technicians heavily for hand drafting through the end of the century. In other orga- nizations, as computer-based design systems become more sophisticated, the role of technicians will probably diminish. Eventually, relatively little staff effort will be required for data entry, and interaction with these systems will require engineering decision making. At present, most states foresee a need during the next 5 years for more technicians with construction inspection and project management skills and no change in the need for drafting or surveying skills. One recent projection indicates that most technicians needed during the coming decade will perform construction and maintenance work (Table 2-11). City and county governments also project heavy use of technicians, both in traffic control and in highway and street design.
57 TABLE 2-11 Public-Sector Demand for Transportation Technicians in the United States, 1985-1995 (18) Number of Technicians Total Annual State level Highway and street design 500-600 50 Surveying, mapping, and field location 200-300 30 Traffic control 600-700 60 Construction and maintenance 4,000-6,000 500 Public transportation 100 10 County level Highway and street design 3,000-4,000 350 Surveying, mapping, and field location 1,000-2,000 150 Traffic control 1,000-2,000 150 Construction and maintenance 2,000-3,000 250 Public transportation 100-200 20 City level Highway and street design 1,000-2,000 150 Surveying, mapping, and field location 1,000-2,000 150 Traffic control 3,000-5,000 400 Construction and maintenance 600-1,000 80 Total for all levels Highway and street design 4,500-6,600 550 Surveying, mapping, and field location 2,200-4,300 330 Traffic control 4,600-7700 600 Construction and maintenance 8,000-12,000 1,000 Public transportation 800-1,300 100 Note: The absolute numbers are not as likely to be as accurate as the relative needs in different transportation functions. Training and Certification The chief advantage of using technicians rather than engineers is the economy implicit in using less-trained, less-expensive staff to perform various frequently repeated, time-consuming tasks. Excessive reliance on technicians, however, can lower the quality of an agency's work force. One must weigh the short-run savings of lower average costs for technical personnel against the long-run risks in the erosion of the adequacy of design and construction, which could lead to deterio- ration in the durability of highway facilities, service quality, and safety.
58 To realize the potential cost savings of using techni- cians, the tasks assigned to them must be sufficiently well defined that these employees can acquire the needed skills through one of three learning channels. Currently, most technicans acquire their skills through on-the-job training after high school graduation. Large numbers also earn a 2-year associate or a 4-year bach- elor's of technology degree from a vocational school or college. Many technicians acquire training in engineer- ing because they entered a college or university engineering program but did not complete it. Often technicians have at least some background in practical mathematics, basic engineering, and laboratory work. They differ from craftsmen by virtue of this kind of knowledge, but they also differ from engineers, whose technical background, problem-solving skills, and creativity are normally much greater. Through long expe- rience, however, some technicians develop the skills, knowledge, and judgment of lower-level engineers and occasionally an exceptional technician climbs to the management ranks. In the coming decade, as the role of technicians evolves to fit with a rehabilitation-oriented highway program and the application of more automated techniques, on-the-job training of technicians will continue to be the key to successful reliance on technicians. Only on-the-job training can fully match the skills of techni- cians to the individual organizational practices, to the specific computer systems employed, and to the division of labor on which each department of transportation depends. Nevertheless, there are substantial similari- ties in the way many states use technicians, and common, training or retraining programs could help the states recruit an adequate supply of trained technicians as well as help to keep their technician skills up to date. One avenue for raising the quality of the technician work force is certification of technician skills. At least eight states now require certification of techni- cians. Traditionally certification has occurred in the area of materials and field testing, but certification in other areas of engineering technology is becoming widespread (18). States may certify technicians through their own programs or through such programs offered by the National Institute for Certification in Engineering Technologies (NICET) and the National Voluntary Laboratory Accredita- tion Program. NICET, sponsored by the National Society
59 of Professional Engineers, is an outgrowth of an earlier certification program dating back to 1961. Five states rely on NICET to certify at least part of their techni- cian work force (Table 2-12). The NICET program illus- trates how engineering technicians can be classed into several groups (design, construction, etc.) and into different levels of performance difficulty (NICET certi- fication levels 1, 2, 3, and 4). TABLE 2-12 States Participating in the NICET Program, 1983 (19) Number of State Certifications West Virginia 492 New York 67 Pennsylvania 54 Mississippi 44 North Dakota 40 A technician can become certified to perform at each level within a specialty based on a combination of expe- rience, verification of experience, recommendations, and written tests. The written tests provide uniform ways of ascertaining whether a technician has reached a certain level of capability (Table 2-13). There are both advantages and disadvantages to certification (20,21) Advantages A consensus and acceptance of criteria for evaluating and establishing the career status of technicians A rigorous way to link state civil service position classifications to the technical capability of paraprofessionals In collective bargaining, a means of strengthening the weight given to technical competence as opposed to longevity
TABLE 2-13 Summary of General Enrollment and Certification Requirements of NICET (17) Level 1 2 - 3 4 Minimum full-time experience Verification of exper ience Recommen- dat ions No minimum time requirement; eli- gible when abil- ity in required work elements is established By supervising en- gineer(s) or job superintendent(s) who actually su- pervise candidate one from person familiar with candidate's work At least 2 yr By supervising en- gineer(s) or other persons as specified in Orientation Manual Same as Level 1 At least 5 yr total By supervising en- gineer(s) or other persons as specified in Orientation Manual Same as Level 1 At least 10 yr total plus actual supervision of one major project Ideally by PE; un- usual job condi- tions may justify someone else; refer to Orientation Manual At least one recom- mendation as to character and in- tegrity from PE personally famil- iar with candidate's job performance
Written test None Form of Letter of enroll- certifi- ment provided; no cation certificate issued Performance Entry-level work capabilities under direct supervision Written test covering work elements Certification as Engineering Associate Technician (AET) Intermediate-level work within specified field under general supervision Written test covering work elements Certification as Engineering Technician (ET) Independent work with little or no supervision on jobs covered by standard and complete plans, specifications, or instructions Written test cov- ering work ele- ments; personal interview may be required Certification as Senior Engineering Technician (SET) Assistant to PE with authority to act in name of PE in matters in which authority is delegated and engineering precedent exists
62 Increased assurance that within agencies technicians fill positions and take on tasks based on job profi- ciency and that demonstrated proficiency receives similar recognition from one agency to another; this assumes that the tasks in jobs and certifica- tion tests are the same Increased productivity, performance, knowledge, and skills that result from the kind of training that accompanies an effective certification program Enhanced employee morale and motivation, the out- growth of personal satisfaction and employer recog- nition of a technician's reaching certification milestones and earning promotions or higher pay Confirmed qualifications of technicians for manage- ment, FHWA, and the courts Disadvantages Excessive reliance on technicians, even certified ones, which risks erosion in the quality of staff Increased costs in terms of staff time and money, though productivity improvements can offset these costs No assurance of promotion or increased pay unless certification and career development are directly related Possible opposition by unions if certification threatens employee longevity benefits Entry barrier to higher-level positions, especially for minorities or those who are not English- speak ing natives Technological change requires constant adjustment on the part of engineers and technicians. By virtue of their training, engineers are more attuned to technolog- ical advance and the state of the art. In an efficient, technologically proficient organization, engineers should be assigned to challenging new problems and pass along to technicians the old ones for which solutions have already been developed. This process must continually adjust to the make-up of the work force and to changes in technological capabilities. Many technical tasks performed by each class of engineers or technicians are continually being reassigned to less skilled groups of workers as these tasks become more automated or more routine. Structuring a set of technician categories is a dynamic undertaking. It must reflect the experience
63 and capabilities of the technicians within the organiza- tions, the technical demands that program requirements impose, and the capabilities and needs of the engineering staff. Although each state must tailor a solution to meet its own professional needs, there appears to be a particular problem in making the most efficient use of senior tech- nicians. Michigan, for example, has created a new top technician category as part of a strategy to upgrade the skill level of its technical staff and to properly compensate its senior technicians for acquiring increas- ingly advanced skills. Between 1974 and 1984, the construction division of the Michigan Department of Transportation went from a relatively low-skill techni- cian work force (70 percent classified in the lowest two technician categories in Table 2-14) to a high-skill technipian work force (83 percent higher than the two lowest technician categories). The state accOmplished this by a combination of training and assuring that technicians could perform the work called for by posi- tions of increasing responsibility. During these 10 years, the total number of technicians in the construction division shrank from 884 to 584. The total number of engineers also fell slightly (from 794 to 777), whereas the number of registered engineers climbed from 235 to 372. All this occurred while the agency's level of activity, as measured by payments to contractors, declined in 1984 dollars from $507 million in 1974 to $464.9 million in 1984 (Michigan Department of Transportation, unpublished data). In brief, the construction division of the Michigan Department of Transportation was able to increase the expertise of its staff, as manifested by an increased fraction of technicians with versatility and depth and a higher percentage of registered engineers, even as the highway program was shrinking. The general upgrading of technicians was achieved partly by paying advanced-level technicians similar wages to those of lower-level engi- neers performing similar work. The process of transferring routine engineering tasks to technicians raises difficult issues related to equi- table compensation, the establishment of career paths that retain qualified employees, and the agency's ability to recruit. Another resolution of these issues allows senior technicians to enter the engineering classifica- tion. The majority of states, however, prefer to keep the engineer and technician classes separate.
TABLE 2-14 Change in Capabilities of Technicians in the Construction Division of the Michigan Department of Transportation Qualif i- Estimated Level of Respon- cations Years Michigan Technician Staff Size Diffi- Class sibility for from 1974-1984 culty Title Level Appointment CT I 1974 (%) 1984 (%) (% change) 6 CT VI Manager, p 10-12 0 7 +7 multiple 25 KCs projects 5 CT V Manager, p 8-9 0.5 21 +20.5 complex 20 KCs projects NICET 4 4 CT IV Versatility OC or p 6 8 51 +43.0 and depth 15 KCs NICET 3 3 CT III Versatility OC or p 4 21.5 4 -17.5 or depth 10 KCs NICET 2 2 CT II Trainee 2-year 2.5 30 7 -23 technical institute or engineering school or 5 KCs 1 CT I Trainee High school 0 40 2 -38 graduate Source: Unpublished data (Michigan Department of Transportation and Bergstrahl-Shaw-Newmafl, Inc.); (21) Note: OC = open competition, P = promotion, EC = key certifications. NICET 1, 2, 3, and 4: certification levels of the National Institute for Certification in Engineering Technologies.
65 Unnecessarily restrictive lob classifications may not make the most effective use of in-house skills. For example, if an employee without a degree who has superior technical and engineering and supervisory skills is precluded from supervision of graduate engineers, the agency may be needlessly putting barriers in the way of improving productivity (Washington Department of Transportation, unpublished data). Some agencies may be unduly bound by tradition in delineating the responsi- bilities of engineers and technicians. Nevertheless, there are valid reasons for keeping classification of engineers separate. An important one is that state licensing laws require professional regis- tration of at least some engineers. These registration requirements effectively prevent a technician from assuming many engineering positions without going to school and obtaining an engineering degree or passing a licensing exam. It may also be easier to retain both technicians and engineers if each has a more clearly defined career path with easily foreseen promotional opportunities. In summary, enhanced use of technicians within state departments of transportation appears likely during the coming decades. To some extent, this can help meet the bulge in demand for skills arising from the large numbers of engineers retiring. It is also a probable outgrowth of increased application of more automated techniques. Making effective use of this resource, however, requires careful consideration so that the objectives of the agency are achieved within the framework of regulations enacted to ensure preservation of the necessary profes- sional competence and to provide equitable opportunities and compensation for all employees and without creation of any adverse impacts on the motivation of the work force. Fully Exploiting the Potential of Computers The potential application of computers may be greater than in most other industries because of the immense amount of data that states collect and process with regard to the highway network, including traffic counts, highway features, and travel forecasts. In addition some states have large computerized data base management systems to keep voluminous records on licensed drivers and automobile ownership. Further, the extensive amount
66 of engineering involved in the highway sector lends itself ideally to automation in many instances. Many states have aggressively pursued the capability of computers to do tasks better, more quickly, or more efficiently, and the rapid progress being made in data- processing capability means that even greater improve- ments can be realized in the years ahead. The Texas State Department of Highways and Public Transportation (SDHPT), for example, has been relying on computer automation increasingly as a part of a multi- faceted strategy to meet its current and future staffing needs. It has spent $34 million on computer hardware and software since 1980. The department estimates that these expenditures, along with greater reliance on consultants, technicians, and contracting for maintenance work, have generated savings of $126 million, mainly as a result of the work-force reduction (22)--the engi- neering staff decreased from 1,104 in 1973 to 700 in 1984 (SDHPT, unpublished data). Now SDHPT is faced with a large number of retirements and a 45.8 percent increase in state highway spending from 1984 to 1989. The department also anticipates a 50 percent increase in population from 1980 to 2000, and attendant growth in travel from 114.3 to 190 billion vehicle miles. To accomplish more highway design and drafting work without increasing the work force, SDHPT has resorted to using the most modern technology, including CADD, digitized aerial photogrammetry, and satellite surveying. Many states use the Texas CADD system and more than 10 have entered into a cooperative agreement to provide funding to refine and improve the system continually. The CADD system is already a highly effective and opera- tional drafting tool and its engineering capabilities are regularly being expanded. On the basis of time studies and reports from its own users, SDHPT has found that CADD raises the productivity of drafting work by an average of about two times. Plan-sheet preparation can be speeded up by a factor of 1.3 to 10 depending on how repetitious the plan elements are and the number of plan elements already in computer storage. In SDHPT, adding a single-screen black-and-white CADD terminal to the existing system can save the equivalent of a high-grade technician's wages and benefits and pay for itself in less than 2 years. This is a cost savings due to an incremental action. Introducing a CADD system into an organization for the first time may not realize these
67 benefits initially because of start-up costs but is likely to do so in the long run. The potential of CADD for improving engineering productivity will increase in future years as the design capabilities of the system continue to evolve. Perhaps the most important advantage of CADD is not its budgetary savings but its ease of allowing engineers to explore more alternatives and explore them more thoroughly. Before CADD was available, hand drafting precluded the consideration of many design options in detail. Now engineers have the ability to view and analyze numerous alternative designs relatively quickly. CADD also strengthens the ability of the department to recruit new graduate engineers. When SDHPT recruits on college campuses, it tries to emphasize the opportunities to work with state-of-the-art technology in an attractive working environment. CADD provides evidence to new graduates that the department is dynamic and forward looking. They often view working with the most advanced technology as akin to working with state-of-the-art design tools used in the manufacture of microchips in the electronics industry. The potential application of computers reaches far beyond engineering design. Increasingly, states are using pavement management systems and maintenance management systems to program their projects in these areas. The vast quantities of information on the construction of specific segments, their condition, and their dimensions make pavement management systems an ideal way to inventory and review the condition of numerous segments of road throughout a state. Further, computer data processing will be invaluable as some of the basic relationships between pavement design, mainte- nance treatments, traffic loadings, pavement age, climate, and other factors become better understood through the results of the Strategic Highway Research Program and other research (23). Some of the leading current and potential applications of computers in state transportation departments and highway agencies are as follows: Engineering calculations, Data base management, Urban transportation modeling and simulation, Construction and maintenance management systems for staff allocation and needs estimates, Pavement management systems,
68 Cost benefit and statistical analysis, Digitized aerial photograxnmetry, Weigh-in-motion and automatic traffic recorders, Portable computers for convenient field use, Office automation, Models for making decisions with multiple objectives, CADD, Traffic operations and control equipment, Electronic mail and telecommunications, and Air and noise pollution modeling and simulation. The power and efficiency of data processing will continue to increase rapidly during the next several decades given the outlook for further major improvements in computa- tional speed and storage capacity, further reductions in the cost of data-processing hardware, and new strides in miniaturization. Data- intensive highway activities involving numerous quantitative attributes and requiring consideration of numerous technological alternatives are ideal beneficiaries of this explosion in capability. In the longer term, as increasing numbers of computers are incorporated into the vehicles themselves and as increasing numbers of signals and other traffic control devices employ computers, the prospects for interactive road and vehicle systems could yield major benefits to safety, ease of navigation, and efficient use of roadway capacity (24). Within the next several decades, major increases in the automation of highway traffic operations appear inevitable, and the generation of engineers now entering positions in which computers are applied to current construction and system management operations will probably be the key technical resource for develop- ing more automated highway capabilities. Thus, the pressing needs of existing computer applica- tions are only one part of the reason for carefully planning the development of data-processing human resources. The potential to exploit future developments requires that this planning be done from a long-term perspective. This is a particularly difficult profes- sional need to furnish: Highway agencies are seeking more skilled computer professionals as virtually every other industry in the economy pursues them. Not surpris- ingly, many highway agencies report that they have particular difficulty recruiting computer professionals, and others find that they have difficulty retaining such professionals when opportunities outside their agencies bid them away.
69 Some states have found that an effective and long-term way to alleviate this need is to select some of their engineers to train as computer professionals. This requires a substantial investment in training, but it may represent a more permanent solution than a strategy that concentrates on recruitment alone. Idaho, for example, has found that its engineers typically have established ties to the state and strong loyalty to the department. When trained as computer professionals, they tend to remain with the agency longer than do professionals hired as data-processing experts, who are more likely to be lured away by new applications and new machines. Further, the opportunity to continue profes- sional growth in high-technology areas may help the agency in its recruitment efforts, as Texas has found. There do not appear to be any quick solutions to high- way agencies' needs for computer professionals: These needs reflect economywide pressures. Nevertheless, the long-term prospects for ever-growing needs in this area within highway agencies make it an ideal career choice for all bright, ambitious, and technically adept profes- sionals. Highway agencies should view this need in a long-term context and make the necessary investment in human resources to meet this need not now but throughout the coming decade. Computers are not a panacea and caution is required to avoid creating new problems. Computer hardware, sof t- ware, and new applications implemented poorly can reduce productivity instead of increase it. Agencies must exercise extreme sensitivity and care to realize the productivity improvements that computers promise. Computers also generate their own professional require- ments, which may differ from the needs of specific appli- cation areas. Unless an agency is exceedingly careful, it may create a greater need for computer professionals than the savings computers achieve in other professional and technical personnel. Maintaining a Competitive Position in Recruiting Entry- Level Professionals The design, construction, rehabilitation, and maintenance of highway facilities have traditionally been primarily engineering responsibilities. Although the composition and requirements of future programs will alter the skill mix that is needed, engineering will continue to be the key discipline needed by state departments of transpor-
70 tation to achieve their objectives. No other discipline trains professionals to address problems regarding all the areas of materials, soils, hydrology, and the physi- cal dynamics of pavements and structures. Recently there has been more than an adequate supply of engineers and engineering skills available to the states both in the public and private sectors. The relatively low entry-level salaries that have recently been offered to civil engineers on graduation reflect this situation. In 1983 average monthly salaries offered to students earning bachelor's degrees in civil engi- neering were below those earned by most other types of engineers. The starting salaries offered these civil engineering graduates had also fallen below the 1974 salary levels in real terms. (Recent trends in salaries for civil engineers are discussed in more detail in Chapter 6.) State agencies, on average, pay lower salaries than other employers of civil engineers. The salaries of state highway enginers are low relative to those of engineers of all types in the private sector with similar responsibility. Further, this disparity has grown between 1975 to 1983 (Table 2-15). There are regional differences in this pattern. At present, salaries (midpoint of the salary range) for highway professionals such as district highway engineers are significantly lower in the southeastern part of the United States compared with other portions of the country (Table 2-16). There appears to be no significant difference among salaries of highway engineers in other portions of the country. Such comparisons do not reflect variations in employee benefits, differences in regional cost of living, or differences in working conditions. Currently state employee benefits in transportation agencies range from 16 to 59 percent of salaries, the mean being 36.5 percent (Table 2-17). A 1983 salary survey of the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) indicates that the mean salary of its members in state government, $35,140, is among the lowest in the civil engineering industry, nearly $8,000 below the mean level of federal government salaries and more than $5,000 below the amount received by consultants in private practice (Table 2-18). The members of ITE in public transit and academia also receive higher salaries than those in state government. These salary levels have not been adjusted to account for the length of
71 TABLE 2-15 Relation of Salaries of State Highway Engineers to Those of Engineers in Private Sector with Similar Responsibility (25-28) State Highway State Highway District Engineera Project Engineera Compared with Compared with Private-Sector Private-Sector Year Engineerb Engineerb 1975 0.78 0.63 1976 0.81 0.71 1979 0.73 0.58 1983 0.70 0.57 aAverage salaries of district and project engineers obtained by taking the midpoint of the salary range for each state reported in PASHTO salary surveys (25-27) and then calculating the mean over all states for a particular year. bDistrict Engineer and Project Engineer, defined by AASHTO (27), are comparable in responsibility with Engineer VI and Engineer VII, respectively, as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics annual survey (28). experience of employees, which normally explains a large portion of the variation from one employer to another. Because of differences in average seniority, benefits, and regional cost of living, the available salary data do not necessarily imply a problem in recruiting quali- fied professionals. Indeed, most state departments of transportation report that they are able to hire quali- fied professionals in almost all areas, and the data suggest that the market for civil engineers entering state departments of transportation has been character- ized by abundant supply, although this recent trend will not remain permanently. Thus, state administrators should regularly review their recruitment practices, training and other professional development programs, and salary structures so that they remain successful in
TABLE 2-16 Salary Ranges of Key Professional Positions in State Departments of Transportation and Highway Organizations, 1983-1984 (27) Salary (1984$) by Position Graduate Civil Journey Level District Project Engineer Transportation State Enqineer Engineer (BSCE) Planner Alabama 33,826-51,610 19,739-29,900 21,772-33,020 25,168-38,324 Alaska n.a. 38,124-45,192 26,892-32,040 43,560-51,588 Arizona 34,352-46,637 29,516-35,528 20,970-24,713 22,038-28,975 Arkansas 40,760 28,808-37,622 16,328-23,348 27,560-36,400 California 34,548-52,980 30,756-37,116 19,812-22,764 24,876-30,012 Colorado 39,576-50,508 25,512-32,556 21,576-24,972 34,188-43,632 Connecticut 34,475-42,320 24,911-30,328 20,382-22,968 24,911-30,328 Delaware 26,669-44,604 23,325-36,977 15,382-25,057 24,946-40 1 688 District of Columbia 51,058-63,700 43,410-56,424 14,054-18,284 14,054-18,284 Florida 37,000-67,500 20,859-28,417 16,307-21,882 n.a. Georgia 27,996-43,004 18,390-27,996 19,152-25,722 18,390-27,996 Hawaii 30,228-48,156 23,844-36,000 16,116-23,844 21,768-32,820 Idaho 32,801-48,484 23,296-34,444 17,388-25,688 19,117-28,329 Illinois 31,620-46,800 25,200-36,900 19,800-25,800 21,000-30,780 Indiana 26, 546-41,340 21,112-31,070 19, 500-28, 860 17,342-25,636 Iowa 30,909-41,704 24,484-32,716 18,907-24,690 17,909-21,965 Kansas 32,256-44,736 22,656-31,308 19,092-26,436 17,484-23,676 Kentucky 29,856-47,808 22,272-35,688 15,072-24,144 16,608-26,592 Louisiana 34,308-49,740 24,336-36,036 21,216-30,756 26,052-37,608 Maine 24,024-33,530 20,584-27,976 16,058-21,902 17,638-24,086 Maryland 31,132-44,165 21,237-27,894 16,995-22,316 21,237-27,894 Massachusetts 34,528-43,086 22,495-27,799 18,646-22,742 30,194-37,557 Michigan 36,561-49,026 39,609-52,993 19,585-24,764 22,446-30,380 Minnesota 36,310-48,170 26,956-35,934 21,151-26,016 19,606-25,766 Mississippi 31,223-46,572 22,019-32,976 17,427-26,089 17,427-26,089
Missouri 38,200-48,000 21,948-30,384 19,200-22,056 21,948-30,384 Montana 32,212-41,316 20,785-28,311 16,159-22,093 17,475-23,861 Nebraska 30,219-42,307 22,629-31,681 19,126-25,501 16,944-23,722 Nevada 30,951-42,547 23,751-32,367 20,888-24,805 20,021-27,090 New Hampshire 24,005-29,660 21,333-26,150 14,567-17,628 17,004-20,495 New Jersey 36,177-48,833 26,995-36,446 19,139-20,010 23,318-31,483 New Mexico 32,184-45,300 26,472-43,140 17,916-29,196 17,064-27,804 New York 57,718-68,172 30,326-41,403 18,718-22,338 28,772-33,740 North Carolina 28, 560-43,836 21,468-32,856 19,212-20,088 17,928-27,216 North Dakota 28,956-42,420 21,600-31,644 16,128-23,628 16,932-24,804 Ohio 29,099-41,350 19,781-27,622 17,992-23,941 16,557-21,778 Oklahoma 39,271-52,626 23,383-38,313 18,429-24,697 23,521-31,520 Oregon 34,044-43,428 25,368-32,376 18,084-23,100 n.a. Pennsylvania 37,653-48,098 21,379-29,066 17,976-23,276 21,379-29,066 Puerto Rico 17,220-21,720 13,260-16, 860 11,280-14,280 10,380-13,080 Rhode Island n.a. 20,883-23,577 18,681-21,733 23,429-26,531 South Carolina 27,191-38,540 19,867-28,159 16,982-24,071 18,368-26,036 South Dakota 35,500 20,134-31, 325 17,014-26,104 15, 662-23,837 Tennessee 22,200-29,052 18,840-25,188 16,404-22,200 14,59220,172 Texas 50,000-52,700 31,968-40,272 23,784-29,952 25,392-31,968 Utah 34,076-49,778 24,868-36,269 19,773-26,058 17,811-26,058 Vermont 21,299-40,477 16,973-32,032 13,562-25,189 16,973-32,032 Virginia 28,397-38,781 15,213-20,791 18,183-20,791 19,884-27,150 Washington 43, 740-55,992 26,700-34,176 17, 988-23, 016 17, 988-23, 016 West Virginia 28,464-50,988 22,284-38,316 16,884-28,872 14,724-25,080 Wisconsin 38,275-53,198 24,785-32,675 20,664-25,478 24,883-34,584 Wyoming 37,968-58,908 29,640-45,984 19,968-30,984 19,475-30,240 U.S. averagea 33,461-46,861 24,369-33,888 18,490-24,620 21,093-29,083 Note: n.a. = data not available. awlth the exception of Puerto Rico.
TABLE 2-17 Employee Benefits in State Highway Agencies Benefits Expressed as Percentage State of Average Salary Hawaii 59 New York 55 Missouri 54 Maryland 52 Florida 50 Iowa 50 Ohio 49 Alabama 48 Mississippi 46 Ore9on 46 Louisiana 45 North Carolina 44 Colorado 43 Oklahoma 43 Idaho 42 Texas 41 Utah 41 Kentucky 40 Nebraska 39 Illinois 38 Kansas 37 Wyoming 36 Connecticut 35 Maine 35 Michigan 35 Nevada 35 Tennessee 33 West Virginia 33 Arkansas 32 Delaware 32 Minnesota 32 California 31 New Jersey 30 Washington 30 Rhode Island 29 Virginia 29 Wisconsin 29 Vermont 28 North Dakota 25 Massachusetts 24 New Hampshire 20 New Mexico 20 Montana 18 South Carolina 17 South Dakota 16 Alaska n.a. Arizona n.a. Georgia n.a. Indiana n.a. Pennsylvania n.a. U.S. average 37 Source: AASHTO survey of state departments of transportation and highway agencies for the Transportation Professional Needs Study, Supplement, 1984. Note: n.a. = data not available.
75 TABLE 2-18 Mean Salary of Members of ITE by Type of Employer (29) Employer Category Mean Salary(s) Association 45,577 Manufacturer/supplier 45,429 Other 43,250 Federal government 43,245 Private practice 40,764 Public transit 39,408 Academic 38,024 City/local government 35,627 State/province government 35,140 County government 35,012 Regional transportation 33,363 attracting high-quality professionals as job market conditions change. CONCLUSIONS About 41,000 professionals, mostly civil engineers, now work in state departments of transportation. This number will grow modestly in the next decade and thereby create somewhat more demand for highway professionals. More important, however, is the outlook for retire- ments. An average of about 3.1 percent of state highway engineers are projected to retire each year throughout the coming decade. This is far higher that the average of 1.9 percent experienced by civil engineers in general. These high rates of retirement will create serious stress for many state departments of transportation, particu- larly those that did little or no hiring throughout the 1970s. There need not be a crisis in the future availability of professional skills if state highway agencies take six steps to meet future needs: Revamp.programs to train mid-level and management engineers to assume the varied responsibilites of
76 retiring professionals (this may require revision of other procedures, such as relocation assistance, to facilitate the accele.-ated development of in-house professionals); Review internal certification practices to make sure that there is no erosion in professional expertise needed for the growing complex rehabili- tation work and at the same time make full use of necessary skills within the agency; Exploit the potential of computers through greater reliance or computer-aided design and drafting, automated pavement and maintenance management systems, and other improvements; Use more consultants, a resource states have identified as nearly the most effective one they draw on to help meet their staffing needs or improve productivity; Monitor and adjust incentives needed to attract and retain professionals, including recruitment, promo- tional opportunities, job satisfaction and compen- sation, and training and educational benefits; and Increase the versatility and depth of technicians and expand their application to routine tasks. REFERENCES Federal Highway Statistics. FHWA, U.S. Department of Transportation, annual series through 1982. Census of Government. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, 1957, 1962, 1967, 1972, 1977, and 1982. State Distribution of Public Enloymerit. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, 1956, 1958-1961, and 1964. Public Employment. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, 1965, 1966, 1968-1971, 1973-1976, 1978-1981, and 1983. Economic Report of the President Transmitted to the Congress 1984. U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1984. U.S. Regional Forecasts: State Long-Term Tables. Chase Econometrics, Washington, D.C., Fall 1984. U.S. Long-Term Review. Data Resources, Inc., Washington, D.C., Fall 1984. The Status of the Nation's Highways: Condition and Performance: Report of the Secretary of
77 Transportation to the United States Congress. U.S. Department of Transportation, July 1983. Public Law 97-424 (Jan. 6, 1983), Surface Transportation Assistance Act of 1982. 92 Stat. 2097. Engineering News Record. January 12, 1984. Monthly Labor Review. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, Nov. 1983. Projected Response of the Science, Engineering and Technical Labor Market to Defense and Nondefense Needs: 1982-87. National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C., 1984. R.E. Kutscher. Future Labor-Market Conditions for Engineers. In Labor Market Conditions for Engineers: Is There a Shortage? National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1984, pp. 27-28. Science and Engineering Personnel: A National Overview. National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C., Aug. 1982. J. Fiorito. The School-to-Work Transition of College Graduates. Industrial and Labor Relations Review, Oct. 1981, pp. 103-114. M.E. Cambell and L.R. Schureman. Engineering-Personnel Needs for Highway Departments. Bull. 106. Manpower Needs in Highway Engineering, HRB, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 1955, pp. 1-24. NICET Certification Programs. National Institute for Certification in Engineering Technologies, Washington, D.C., 1984. D.L. Woods, N.A. Evans, and C.V. Wootan. Transportation Education: Training Requirements for Transportation Technologists. Presented at TRB Conference on Surface Transportation Education and Training, Williamsburg, Va., Oct. 28-31, 1984. NICET Newsletter. Vol. 21, No. 2, 1983. R.L. Dean. Training and Certification of Technicians. Presented at Conference on Quality Assurance of Highways and Bridges, Aug. 30-31, 1983. Bergstralh-Shaw-Newman, Inc. Discussion Guide on Certification of Engineering Technicians. Ohio Department of Transportation, Columbus, Nov. 1984. Texas Engineers Are United via Computers. Engineering News-Record, Nov. 17, 1983, pp. 26-27. America's Highways: Accelerating the Search for Innovation. Special Report 202. TEE, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 1984.
78 B. Kiran. Techniques for Implementing Direct Road User Charges. Proc., Twentieth Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Forum, Vol. 20, No. 1, 1979, pp. 515-522. Highway Salary Survey. AASHTO, Washington, D.C., April 1975. Transportation Salary Survey. AASHTO, Washington, D.C., 2 volumes, Dec. 1976 and May 1979. Salary Survey of State Highway and Transportation Departments, 1983-1984. AASHTO, Washington, D.C., 1984. National Survey of Professional, Administrative, Technical and Clerical Pay. U.S. Department of Labor, annual series. 1983 North American Salary and Benefits Survey. ITE, Washington, D.C., 1983.
3 Individual State Highway Agencies NEEDS FROM A STATE'S PERSPECTIVE Although state highway agencies will be replacing an exceptionally large proportion of their professional staffs during the coming decade, the nationwide need for new entry-level professionals does not currently exceed the supply of new graduates nor do future trends create needs that cannot be met through modest realignment of recent national trends. Nevertheless, the situation in some states is far more extreme than that implied by national averages. In five states, for example, more than one-third of all of professional employees will be eligible to retire with full benefits within the next 5 years. A surge in replacement of this magnitude would create some severe organizational stresses: Even if an agency can find adequate entry-level professionals, the loss of one-third of an agency's most senior professionals requires that the remaining professionals assume a massive increase in responsibilities at each level of the agency as the organizational hierarchy adjusts to fill the voids at the top. The pending surge in retirements and replacements will occur simultaneously in many states, so that a strategy of simply looking farther afield for new⢠candidates will not be as effective as it has in past years, when peak professional needs were confined to only a few scattered states. The stability of the professional work force may in many states require an adequate supply of new professionals from within the same state or region. Graduates of in-state universities may have family 79
80 ties or emotional attachments to an area that over- come the inherent disadvantages of a career path that requires shifting field assignments and reloca- tion in various corners of a state. If a state's peak demand for new professionals exceeds the capac- ity of its traditional nearby channels of new entrants, it may encounter exceptional difficulty recruiting or retaining graduates from other regions. In brief, the ability of any single state to meet its professional needs could differ sharply from national averages, and the existence of needed professional talent elsewhere is of little benefit unless it can be attracted and retained where it is needed. To compound the problem, many states facing major recruitment needs were out of the hiring market for several years during the last decade. Survey returns revealed that 11 states experienced reductions in force or layoffs in 1981 and 1982. This leaves a void where word-of-mouth referrals between applicants and positions would have otherwise have developed. It may make it difficult for potential new recruits to identify with the agency during job interviews. Further, it may place state recruitment efforts at a disadvantage, inasmuch as some graduates have the impression that jobs in state highway agencies are not important, stimulating, or rewarding assignments. To counter this impression, several states have started using recently hired employees, such as professionals who have been on the job 2 years, to do their campus recruitment. This helps to convey a sense of vitality to prospective new employees. The young recruiters are more attuned to recent campus events and to current educational programs, making it easier for them to estab- lish common ground between the applicant and the agency. The number of women choosing engineering majors in university programs has increased substantially during the last 15 years, and an agency that appears open and progressive will be better able to compete for this growing source of professional skill. Similarly, more use of female and minority recruiters would likely increase the states' employment of female and minority professionals and may encourage more of these students to choose professional careers in transportation. Many states faced with large numbers of future retire- ments--Texas, California, and Massachusetts, for
81 example--have recently been stepping up their hiring of engineers. Given the relatively soft labor market for civil engineers in the past several years, some states have seen this as an opportunity to recruit and bring into the organization large numbers of new graduates. Some hiring at levels above the entry level is undoubt- edly occurring but is probably small. The normal practice in most states is to hire rela- tively inexperienced entry-level engineers, train them in the varied activities of the agency, and promote them after several years to fill higher staff positions within the organization. This not only provides an adequate supply of professionals versed in the methods employed by the agency, but also establishes a career path that encourages loyalty to the agency and discourages high turnover. Nearly every state highway organization was hiring professionals in the 12-month period from July 1983 to June 1984. Although the majority of agencies did not report difficulties in hiring engineers, hiring problems were widespread. Nearly half (21) reported problems filling professional engineering positions below the management level, and 12 said that they had difficulty hiring management-level engineers. Such hiring diffi- culties will become more common when retirements increase as projected and states step up recruitment (Table 3-1). Data-processing professionals are widely reported to be particularly difficult to hire. Frequent news stories show that the market for computer specialists is highly charged in most sectors of the economy, and state highway agencies are no exception. Although this specialty was not listed separately in the questionnaire sent to states in conjunction with this study, nine states nonetheless noted that data-processing professionals posed special hiring problems. With creative handling of professional needs, problems may be transformed into opportunities. As many state highway agencies face greater-than-usual turnover of key professional staff in the coming decade, numerous oppor- tunities will arise to tailor solutions to the specific circumstances of each organization. An agency can retain or rehire some of its retirees on a part-time basis. An agency that has grown too top-heavy during the past decade can use this opportunity to streamline itself to deal efficiently with the growing program ahead. An agency that has not fully used the professional talents of women or minorities can use this period of rapid
82 TABLE 3-1 Hiring Difficulties Number of Responses No Difficulty Difficulty Type of Professional Hiring Hiring Management engineer 12 33 Professional engineer 21 27 Engineer technician 8 40 other (write-ins) Data-processing specialist 9 - Engineer in training 2 - Bridge engineer 1 - Controller 1 - Public information officer 1 - Traffic control specialist 1 - Environmental analyst 1 - Real estate appraiser 1 - Source: American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) survey of state transportation and highway departments for the Transportation Professional Needs Study, 1984. personnel change to rectify this. An organization short of computer skills can use in-house training in this area to meet its long-run needs and in the process make the organization more effective in recruiting and retaining computer professionals. An agency that has been rigid in its certification requirements can use this opportunity to review whether planners or other professionals might be permitted to perform certain func- tions traditionally assigned only to engineers. Both the incentive and the ability to phase in more automated processes are enhanced by the high turnover that is anticipated for highway professionals. Realizing these opportunities, however, requires that managers anticipate future needs and plan their solutions strategically. To assist in this process, various measures that managers can use to compare their profes- sional replacement and training needs with those of other organizations are identified in the remainder of this
83 chapter. State highway managers may find these measures useful as they alert state legislatures, governor's staffs, and other branches of state government to their special needs and as they work with other units of government to find creative and efficient solutions. VARIOUS INDEXES OF STATE NEEDS The professional needs of each state should be assessed by considering the specific positions being vacated, availability of suitable in-house replacements, dynamics of internal training and promotion, ability of the agency to recruit and retain, and numerous other factors related to the mission and management of the agency, including legislative regulations and public attitudes. The creativity and adaptability of agencies and individuals are crucial in meeting staffing needs, and generaliza- tions about these unique features affecting their responses and flexibility are of limited practical value. Any realistic assessment of professional requirements within a state must be tailored to each organization. Various measures of the severity of future replacement and skill replenishment needs can help make this assess- ment. Although any statistical yardstick of professional needs is inherently narrow and subject to varied inter- pretation, it is useful to focus on six indexes of the need for the professional work force that are linked in varying degrees to the overall staff needs of future years. These are The average age of professionals now employed by an agency; The percentage of current professional employees eligible to retire within 5 years; The percentage of current professional employees eligible to retire with full benefits within 5 years; The percentage of the professional work force that will actually retire within 5 years if all employees retire when they reach the agency's historic average retirement age; The percentage of professional employees that an agency anticipates will leave during the next 5 years due to retirement, death, or change; and The number of new professional employees that an agency anticipates hiring during the next 5 years,
84 expressed as a. percentage of the current profes- sional work force. In response to a survey of state departments of transpor- tation administered by AASHTO in conjunction with this study, 40 states reported data on one or more of these indexes. The limitations of the data, as discussed earlier, should be considered, particularly the different definitions that states use for professionals.1 The six indexes are discussed in order in the following sections, and a complete summary of the data is provided following this discussion. Average Age Nationwide, the average age of engineers in state highway agencies is approximately 45 years. The range in average age among agencies is fairly narrow, from 36 years in Rhode Island to 49 years in California. The 10 states with the highest average age (among the 40 states that responded to this portion of the survey) are listed in Table 3-2. Two of the largest state departments of transportation, California and Texas, top this list. States with high average ages are not necessarily those with the biggest imminent replacement needs, although they may be. Further, states that have recently hired entry-level engineers might face turnover beyond that suggested by average-age statistics. Massachusetts, for example, ranks fourth from the top in terms of average age, but a glimpse at its age distribution of profes- sionals shows a U-shaped pattern in which the oldest and youngest groups of engineers are particularly numerous (Figure 3-1). This means that during the next 10 years, the agency will shift from being one in which there are 1This survey was sent to the heads of all state departments of transportation or if the state did not have a department of transportation, to the head of the state highway organization. It was requested that in responding, states take only the highway program into account because transit professionals were the subject of a separate survey. The data reported here may not always be strictly comparable because most, but not all, states provided responses for the department as a whole, not just its highway-related activity.
TABLE 3-2 States with the Highest Average Age of Engineers, 1984 State Average Age California 48.9 Texas 48.3 Oregon 47.6 Massachusetts 47.6 Nebraska 47.6 Missouri 47.1 Alabama 46.8 Idaho 46.6 South Dakota 46.2 Vermont 46.0 Source: AASHTO survey of state trans- portation and highway departments for the Transportation Professional Needs Study, 1984. 500 (I) uJ w 400 1 : cc Uj co 100 35 36-45 46-55 56 + AGE (YEARS) FIGURE 3-1 Age distribution of engineers in the Massachusetts Department of Public Works.
86 more engineers in the older, and generally more experi- enced, age categories to one in which the largest cate- gory of employees will be the youngest and most inexperienced. Maintaining organizational cohesiveness and efficiency amid such a shift requires careful atten- tion to management and training techniques. There are large differences from state to state in the number.s and fraction of engineers in different age brackets (Table 3-3). In some states relatively few engineers are more than 60 years of age, but in four states (Kansas, Massachusetts, Nebraska, and Utah) more than 10 percent of engineers exceed 60 years of age. In nearly half the states more than 10 percent of their engineers are between 56 and 60 years of age, though in some states as few as 3 to 5 percent are in this age range. These totals include both nonmanagement engineers, who are often relatively young (Table 3-4), and management engineers, who are relatively old on average (Table 3-5). Among management engineers, six states (California, Iowa, Kansas, Massachusetts, Missouri, and Texas) report that more than half of the professionals are 56 or more years old. A state's retirement plan will strongly influence how a work force of higher-than-average age will affect future professional needs. States commonly offer full benefits when an employee has reached a minimum age of 65 or has 30 years of service. Some states are offering full retirement benefits under such policies as the "rule of 85" or "rule of 80," which stipulate that an employee may receive full benefits with any combination of age and length of service totaling 85 or 80 years, respectively. Mandatory retirement policies are common, but there has been a trend toward eliminating them in order to avoid age discrimination and to retain skilled profes- sionals longer who are healthy and prefer to work. About half the states report that they have no mandatory retirement age and about half have a maximum permissible retirement age of 70, although in some states profes- sionals can receive approval a year at a time to work longer. Federal social security benefits also strongly influence when professionals choose to retire, and all but six states are covered by social security (1). Individuals become eligible for federal social security
87 benefits at age 62 and receive maximum social security benefits at age 65. Percentage Eligible to Retire In most states, an employee may become eligible to retire with partial benefits when a certain age, length of service, or combination of both is reached. The most common minimum age for retirement eligibility is 55, although a number of states allow employees to retire as early as 50. A few states allow retirement at any age provided the employee has had the minimum length of service. In some states the minimum length of service for retirement eligibility is as low as 10 years or 5 years. Among the states surveyed, the average retire- ment age ranges from 57 to 65. The most frequent average retirement ages are 62 and 63 (Table 376). In states having a low minimum requirement for retire- ment eligibility, professionals can leave state govern- ment; collect retirement benefits, albeit reduced ones; and then take another job. Because many, if not most, states credit length of military service to the length of service within state government, some engineers who spent part of their career in the military are able to retire relatively early. Even so, the professional capa- bilities of these employees may continue to be available to an agency, either because the individuals choose to remain employed by the state or because they are subse- quently employed by consulting firms working for the state. In a few instances, Michigan, for example, retirement policies have been used to help achieve a reduction in force. By lowering the minimum retirement requirements and sweetening retirement benefits, the agency encouraged professionals to leave early. Other states, notably those that made reductions in force during the budgetary pressures of the 1970s without any shift in retirement plans, were forced to lay off younger engineers with little seniority. As a result, these states now have special difficulty finding sufficient senior in-house talent to replace retiring professionals. As a result of varied policies toward retirement as well as other factors, different states have sharply different proportions of their work force eligible to retire. During the next 5 years, only about 5 percent of the professional employees in Indiana, Iowa, and New Mexico will be eligible to retire compared with 90
TABLE 3-3 Age Distribution for All Levels of Engineers in State Highway Agencies State Less than 26 26-35 36-45 46-55 56-60 61-65 Greater than 65 Total Percentage 56-60 Years Old Percentage 61 Years or More Alabama 9 57 222 344 68 29 1 730 9.3 4.1 Arkansas 4 77 56 48 19 2 2 208 9.1 1.9 California 0 529 841 1,908 843 415 0 4,537 18.6 9.1 Colorado 23 73 88 65 32 9 1 291 11.0 3.4 Connecticut 8 116 302 163 61 23 23 696 8.8 6.6 Delaware 9 17 19 25 7 5 1 83 8.4 7.2 Florida 5 153 319 271 92 32 4 876 10.5 4.1 Hawaii 0 31 64 83 14 0 0 192 7.3 0.0 Idaho 3 11 26 34 18 7 0 99 18.2 7.1 Illinois 94 234 315 338 158 31 11 1,181 13.4 3.5 Indiana 72 76 146 132 33 10 4 473 7.0 3.0 Iowa 11 62 36 62 31 13 0 215 14.4 6.0 Kansas 6 79 76 47 49 30 3 290 16.9 11.4 Kentucky 15 54 97 132 36 13 1 348 10.3 4.0 Louisiana 0 53 79 99 35 14 5 285 12.3 6.7 Maine 1 33 34 47 29 3 2 149 19.5 3.3 Maryland 22 89 81 112 29 10 3 346 8.3 3.8 Massachusetts 75 214 230 360 323 130 31 1,363 23.7 11.8 Minnesota 26 45 124 125 57 30 2 409 13.9 7.8 Missouri 64 79 149 349 159 53 0 853 18.6 6.2 Montana 2 37 38 34 3 1 0 115 2.6 0.9
Nebraska 0 29 39 37 25 26 0 156 16.0 16.7 Nevada 8 40 75 53 12 4 1 193 6.2 2.6 New Mexico 5 40 90 21 11 6 1 174 6.3 4.0 New York 0 118 300 124 59 13 1 615 9.,6 2.3 North Carolina 70 102 286 262 67 17 2 806 8.3 2.4 North Dakota 5 31 17 26 8 2 0 89 9.0 2.2 Oregon 0 162 203 208 82 23 4 682 12.0 4.0 Pennsylvania 44 115 283 159 60 10 1 672 8.9 1.6 Rhode Island 8 23 15 5 3 1 0 55 5.4 1.8 South Carolina 21 70 103 104 34 15 4 351 9.7 5.4 South Dakota 9 31 40 74 38 8 1 201 18.9 4.5 Tennessee 32 83 54 49 26 6 0 250 10.4 2.4 Texas 0 92 153 257 132 64 2 700 18.9 9.3 Utah 0 4 11 33 7 5 2 62 11.3 11.3 Vermont 8 11 20 31 18 6 0 94 19.1 6.4 Virginia 8 108 214 202 75 17 2 626 12.0 3.0 Washington 43 278 482 328 55 15 2 1,203 4.6 1.4 West Virginia 4 53 63 35 15 2 3 175 8.6 2.9 Wisconsin 40 38 158 150 103 10 1 500 20.6 2.2 Wyoming 25 62 47 53 24 8 0 219 11.0 3.6 Source: AASHTO survey of state transportation and highway departments for the Transportation Professional Needs Study, 1984 (updated in February 1985). Note: 41 states reporting. States differ somewhat in their definitions of engineers and sometimes calculated the age distribution for a slightly different number of engineers than they reported worked in their agency in response to other questions in the survey.
TABLE 3-4 Age Distribution for Nonmanagement Engineers in State Highway AgencieS State Less than 26 26-35 36-45 46-55 56-60 61-65 Greater than 65 Total Percentage 56-60 Years Old Percentage 61 Years or More Alabama 9 39 174 252 32 14 0 520 6.1 2.7 Arkansas 4 75 48 39 16 1 2 185 8.6 1.6 California 0 529 838 1,853 794 397 0 4,411 18.0 9.0 Colorado 23 72 82 57 27 7 1 269 10.0 3.0 Connecticut 8 116 302 163 61 23 23 696 8.8 6.6 Delaware 9 17 15 19 4 2 1 67 6.0 4.4 Florida 5 142 27.4 221 78 29 2 751 10.4 4.1 Hawaii 0 30 45 35 7 0 0 117 6.0 0.0 Idaho 3 7 10 4 8 1 0 33 24.2 3.0 Illinois 94 222 221 168 71 13 10 799 8.9 2.9 Indiana 71 69 124 82 16 5 2 369 4.3 1.9 Iowa 4 49 33 59 22 12 1 180 12.2 7.2 Kansas 6 79 72 44 36 27 3 267 13.5 11.2 Kentucky 15 53 70 72 20 9 0 239 8.4 3.8 Louisiana 0 48 54 43 14 6 4 169 8.3 5.9 Maine 1 33 24 17 14 2 1 92 15.2 3.3 MassachusettS 75 209 219 340 289 118 30 1,280 22.6 11.6 Minnesota 20 46 117 94 42 15 0 334 12.6 4.5 Missouri 64 79 149 339 153 48 0 832 18.4 5.8 Montana 2 34 16 8 0 0 0 60 0.0 0.0 Nebraska 0 29 29 16 11 15 0 100 11.0 15.0
Nevada 8 40 57 36 6 2 1 150 4.0 2.0 New Mexico 5 40 74 14 7 6 1 147 4.8 4.8 New York 0 115 244 65 35 4 1 464 7.5 1.1 North Carolina 70 101 269 213 50 15 2 720 6.9 2.4 North Dakota 5 20 0 1 1 0 0 27 3.7 0.0 Oregon 0 150 153 121 45 7 2 478 9.4 1.9 Pennsyl',ania 44 74 44 16 2 0 0 180 1.1 0.0 Rhode Island 8 20 7 3 3 1 0 42 7.1 2.4 South Carolina 21 63 81 74 19 7 2 267 7.1 3.4 South Dakota 9 20 27 42 18 5 0 121 14.9 4.1 Tennessee 32 76 35 24 17 5 0 189 9.0 2.6 Texas 0 92 153 242 119 51 1 658 18.1 7.9 Utah 0 3 11 13 3 3 1 34 8.8 11.8 Vermont 8 11 19 21 13 4 0 76 17.1 5.3 Virginia 8 106 196 170 55 13 1 549 10.0 2.6 Washington 43 258 301 164 34 9 2 811 4.2 1.4 West Virginia 4 53 38 21 7 0 2 125 5.6 1.6 Wisconsin 40 35 104 70 33 4 0 286 11.5 1.4 Wyoming 25 60 34 33 20 5 0 177 11.3 2.8 Source: AASHTO survey of state transportation and highway departments for the Transportation Professional Needs Study, 1984 (updated in February 1985) Note: 40 states reporting. States differ somewhat in their definition of nonmanagement engineers. Part of the variation in the Percentage of nonmanagement engineers in different age brackets may be attributable to different definitions. Management engineers are included among figures reported for Connecticut.
TABLE 3-5 Age Distribution for Management-Level Engineers in State Highway Agencies State Less than 26 26-35 36-45 46-55 - 56-60 61-65 Greater than 65 Total Percentage 56-60 Years Old Percentage 61 Years or More Alabama 0 18 48 92 36 15 1 210 17.1 7.6 Arkansas 0 2 8 9 3 1 0 23 13.0 4.3 California 0 0 3 55 49 18 0 125 39.2 14.4 Colorado 0 1 6 8 5 2 0 22 22.7 9.1 Delaware 0 0 4 6 3 3 0 16 18.8 18.8 Florida 0 11 45 50 14 3 2 125 11.2 4.0 Hawaii 0 1 19 48 7 0 0 75 9.3 0.0 Idaho 3 11 26 34 18 7 0 99 18.2 7.1 Illinois 0 12 94 170 87 18 1 382 22.8 5.0 Indiana 1 7 22 50 17 5 2 104 16.3 6.7 Iowa 0 0 1 4 13 2 0 20 65.0 10.0 Kansas 0 0 4 3 13 3 0 23 56.5 13.0 Kentucky 0 1 27 60 16 4 1 109 14.7 4.6 Louisiana 0 5 25 56 21 8 1 116 18.1 7.7 Maine 0 0 10 30 15 1 1 57 26.3 3.5 Massachusetts 0 5 11 20 34 12 1 83 41.0 15.7 Minnesota 0 0 11 28 18 5 0 62 29.0 8.1 Missouri 0 0 0 10 6 5 0 21 28.6 23.8 Montana 0 3 22 26 3 1 0 55 5.5 1.8 Nebraska 0 0 10 21 14 11 0 56 25.0 19.6
Nevada 0 0 18 17 6 2 0 43 13.9 4.7 New Mexico 0 0 16 7 4 0 0 27 14.8 0.0 New York 0 3 56 59 24 9 0 151 15.9 6.0 North Carolina 0 1 17 49 17 2 0 86 19.7 2.6 North Dakota 0 11 17 25 7 2 0 62 11.3 3.2 Oregon 0 12 50 87 37 16 2 204 18.1 8.8 Pennsylvania 0 41 239 143 58 10 1 492 11.8 2.2 Rhode Island 0 3 8 2 0 0 0 13 0.0 0.0 South Carolina 0 7 22 30 15 8 2 84 17.9 11.9 South Dakota 0 11 13 32 20 3 1 80 25.0 5.0 Tennessee 0 7 19 25 9 1 0 61 14.7 1.6 Texas 0 0 0 15 13 13 1 42 30.9 33.3 Utah 0 1 0 20 4 2 1 28 14.3 10.7 Vermont 0 0 1 10 5 2 0 18 27.8 11.1 Virginia 0 2 18 32 20 4 1 77 26.0 6.5 Washington 0 20 181 164 21 6 0 392 5.3 1.5 West Virginia 0 0 25 14 8 2 1 50 16.0 6.0 Wisconsin 0 3 54 80 70 6 1 214 32.7 3.3 Wyoming 0 2 13 20 4 3 0 42 9.5 7.1 Source: AASHTO survey of state transportation and highway departments for the Transportation Professional Needs Study, 1984 (updated in February 1985). - Note: 39 states reporting. States differ somewhat in their definitions of management engineers. Part of the variation in the percentage of management engineers in the total number of engineers (see Table 3-3) and in the percentage in different age brackets may be due to different definitions.
94 TABLE 3-6 Frequency Distribution of Average Retirement Age in 40 States Ave rage Retirement Number Age of States 57 2 58 1 59 1 60 6 61 5 62 12 63 8 64 1 65 4 Source: AASHTO survey of state transportation and highway departments for the Transportation Professional Needs Study, 1984. percent of Florida's professionals. Florida has a high number eligible to retire because the state offers increasing retirement benefits with length of service and employees are eligible to receive very small benefits after only a few years of service. Six states report that more than half of their professional employees are eligible to retire within the next 5 years (Table 3-7). But simply being eligible to retire does not necessar- ily mean that an employee will retire, particularly if he' is relatively young and has earned only a portion of the full retirement benefits. Nevertheless, having a high percentage of employees eligible to retire poses a real management liability that may be activated by events largely outside the control of the state department of transportation. For example, if a state legislature or governor enacts unpopular salary reductions, makes major changes in benefits, or alters the state's retirement plan, then a state highway agency could suddenly find many of its employees excercising their option to retire. Similarly, as consulting opportunities change and as the needs of neighboring states shift, states having extraor- dinarily large numbers of employees eligible to retire may experience a surge in attrition.
95 TABLE 3-7 Highest Retirement Eligibility, 1985-1989 Percentage Eligible State to Retire Florida 90.8 Pennsylvania 77.1 Kentucky 55â¢7 Texas 52.6 California 52.0 Massachusetts 51.9 Missouri 49.4 Hawaii 43.8 Delaware 43.4 South Carolina 41.0 Source: AASHTO survey of state transportation and highway departments for the Transportation Professional Needs Study, 1984. Note: In some states employees can retire and earn very low retirement benefits after relatively few years of service. States differ somewhat in their definition of engineers, which should be taken into account in comparing the data. In short, even if a state historically has had a stable professional work force, many of whom were eligible to retire, this does not assure continued stability in the future. Shifts in compensation, working conditions, benefits, public image, costs of living, and competing job opportunities may cause employees to reconsider their retirement decisions. This liability becomes a key concern in personnel planning when a large fraction of employees can retire with full benefits. Percentage Eligible to Retire with Full Benefits The number of employees eligible to retire with full benefits during the next 5 years is also strikingly high in many states, representing 30 percent or more of all professional employees in the seven states that rank
96 TABLE 3-8 Highest Retirement Eligibility with Full Benefits, 1985-1989 State Percentage Eligible to Retire with Full Benefits Iowa 41.0 Texas 40.4 South Carolina 40.2 Kentucky 39.7 Florida 34.9 West Virginia 31.4 Tennessee 30.0 Missouri 29.2 Delaware 28.9 Utah 27.4 Source: AASHTO survey of state transportation and highway departments for the Transportation Professional Needs Study, 1984. Note: States differ somewhat in their definition of engineers, which should be taken into account in comparing the data. highest in this regard (Table 3-8). The proportion of management engineers that can retire with full benefits is even more pronounced, because on average these profes- sionals are older and have more years of experience. Even among employees eligible to retire with full bene- fits, however, the actual number of retirements will generally be less than the number eligible. But this group is particularly well positioned to retire or change jobs if conditions warrant. Percentage That Will Retire Within 5 Years If All Employees Retire at the Average Retirement Age A useful index in gauging relative attrition is the
97 proportion of employees that will retire in the next 5 years, assuming that all employees retire at the agency's historic average retirement age.1 Based on this index, there will be substantial turnover in some of the nations largest state departments of transportation. California and Texas--two of the largest state transpor- tation organizations--will lose about one of four engineers in the next 5 years if all their employees retire immediately on reaching the average retirement age for those agencies (Table 3-9). These same two departments together would lose nearly 1,500 employees, representing nearly 5 percent of all engineers employed in the nation's state highway agencies. Such a sudden outflow is not expected, however. Many states currently have large fractions of their work force already in excess of the average retirement age. California, for example, has an average retirement age of 60, but more than 12 percent of its engineers are older than that. Nevertheless, this index is a useful indicator, because it shows the numbers who have already exceeded their expected working life in these agencies. Many states estimate that their actual replacement needs will be somewhat less than this index shows, owing to the actual age distribution of individual retirements. The states' own estimates of attrition are discussed next. State Estimates of Attrition When asked for their estimate of professional staff attrition due to all causes--deaths, retirement, job change, or other--states generally reported numbers higher than those computed using the index discussed just previously (Table 3-10). Overall rates of attrition should be higher than rates of retirement because of job changes and other forms of attrition not included in the preceding index. Surprisingly, some states report projected attrition less than the level of projected retirements as estimated 1The index is computed by subtracting 5 from the state's average retirement age and estimating the percentage of employees that are older than this number. Employees within each age category are assumed to be uniformly distributed throughout the category.
98 TABLE 3-9 Highest Index of Projected Retirements, 1985-1989 Index of Current Engineers Expected to Retire Within 5 Years of Mean State Retirement Agea California 27.7 Texas 24.5 Connecticut 22.4 Massachusetts 21.3 Hawaii 20.2 Kentucky 19.5 Wisconsin 18.6 Kansas 18.1 Iowa 18.0 Missouri 17.4 Source: AASHTO survey of state transportation and highway departments for the Transportation Professional Needs Study, 1984. Note: States differ somewhat in their definition of engineers, which should be taken into account in comparing the data. aThe index shown here is computed from the age-distribution data furnished by the states by subtracting 5 from each state's average retirement age and then estimating the percentage of employees above that computed age assuming that employees are uniformly distributed within each age category. by means of the preceding index. This apparent discrep- ancy may be explained by differences in definition or interpretation or because the simple index computed here may not fully reflect special factors about the distribu- tion of future retirements known to state personnel planners. In some instances, however, the discrepancy could trace from state application of a historic rule of thumb that is not reflective of the current age distri- bution of professionals.
99 TABLE 3-10 Highest Expected Attrition, 1985-1989 Percentage State of Attrition Indiana 43.3 Oregon 30.8 South Carolina 29.9 Virginia 27.2 Missouri 27.0 Delaware 22.9 Pennsylvania 22.3 Wyoming 20.5 California 20.0 Texas 19.3 Source: AASHTO survey of state transportation and highway departments for the Transportation Professional Needs Study, 1984. Note: States differ somewhat in their definition of engineers, which should be taken into account in comparing the data. Because the demands of the next 5 to 10 years are unique and substantially different from historic patterns in many cases, each state should carefully review its likely future attrition patterns. Simply applying some fixed percentages that have characterized earlier organi- zational history could make it more difficult to deal with future professional needs as they emerge. Although each individual state's projection of attri- tion does not always correspond closely with the various statistical indexes described previously, the state projections nonetheless reflect two earlier generaliza- tions. First, the anticipated attrition from many state highway agencies during the next 5 years represents a loss of a substantial portion of these agencies' profes- sional resources. Second, individual states vary widely in the extent to which retirements and other kinds of attrition will affect them. One cannot prorate state needs from a national average; instead each organization must carefully examine them.
100 State Hiring Plans Many state hiring plans reflect high anticipated rates of attrition. Indiana, Maine, Oregon, and South Carolina all plan to hire at least one new engineer for every three now on the job (Table 3-11). There are some distinct disparities, however, between the states that ranked in the top 10 on each of the indexes of need discussed earlier and their plans to address these needs as reflected in their reported hiring plans. For example, Texas ranks in the top 10 states for each of the six indexes set out here, yet it does not appear among the top 10 in planned hiring. Similarly, California ranks in the top 10 with respect to four of the indexes, but is not near the top of the list in terms of planned hiring. Texas and California have already substantially increased their hiring of new graduates in anticipation of future retirements. Conversely, Maine and Rhode Island do not rank in the top 10 on any of the six indexes, yet both are ranked in the top 10 in terms of hiring plans. TABLE 3-11 Highest Planned Hiring, 1985-1989 Planned Hires (% of current State employment) Indiana 43.3 Maine 40.3 Oregon 38.0 South Carolina 33.0 Iowa 32.0 Missouri 30.5 Virginia 27.2 Rhode Island 25.5 Wisconsin 24.0 Massachusetts 23.8 Source: AASHTO survey of state transportation and highway departments for the Transportation Professional Needs Study, 1984. Note: States differ somewhat in their definition of engineers, which should be taken into account in comparing the data.
101 It is beyond the scope of this study of transportation professional needs to gather and analyze sufficient data on each of the states to predict the future professional requirements of each. Rather, simple statistical indexes have been developed as a first step in aiding the states in their assessments. These indexes may not always coin- cide with state plans because of differences in defini- tions, varying interpretation of the survey question- naire, and other factors. The various indexes set out here may help states to make comparisons and to provide perspectives on future needs as they review the adequacy of their human-resources plans. To facilitate such comparisons, Table 3-12 provides a complete summary of the various indexes for all states that responded to the survey conducted by AASHTO in conjunction with this study. CONCLUSIONS Although the outlook varies sharply from state to state, some states have begun, and others must begin soon, to develop the professional skills that will be needed when unusually large numbers of engineers retire during the next decade. Six states report that more than 50 percent of their engineers will be eligible to retire over the next 5 years: California, Florida, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, and Texas. In Iowa, Texas, and South Carolina, more than 40 percent of the engineers will be able to retire with full benefits. Some states, for example, California and Texas, have been hiring entry-level engineers in anticipation of future replacement needs. Other states plan to hire actively to accommodate program growth, to replace retiring professionals, or for other reasons. Because high rates of retirement will occur simulta- neously in many states, it will not always be practical for an individual state to look to other parts of the country for replacements. Further, states can most successfully recruit regionally. If a state anticipates exceptionally high turnover because of retirement, it should reassess its personnel plans now to assure that it is realistically anticipating future conditions. REFERENCE 1. Fringe Benefits for Highway and Transportation Department Employees. AASHTO, Washington, D.C., 1984.
TABLE 3-12 Summary of Various Indexes of Future Engineer Retirement in State Highway Agencies State 1984 Average Ages Average Retirement Ageb 1985-1989 Percentage Eligible to Retireb Percentage Eligible to Retire with Full Benefitsb - Estimated Percentage of Retirementsa Percentage of AttritiOnb Percentage to be Hiredb Alabama 46.8 62 n.a. n.a. 9.7 n.a. n.a. Arkansas 40.9 63 21.6 13.5 5.6 9.6 23.1 California 48.9 60 52.0 15.1 27.7 20.0 20.0 Colorado 41.6 65 11.3 10.3 3.4 0.0 0.0 Connecticut 44.1 57 n.a. n.a. 22.4 n.a. n.a. Delaware 42.8 60 43.4 28.9 15.7 22.9 n.a. Florida 44.5 n.a. 90.7 34.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. Hawaii 44.5 57 43.8 25.5 20.2 n.a. 2.1 Idaho 46.6 n.a. 19.2 9.1 n.a. 5.1 5.1 Illinois 43.2 n.a. 16.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Indiana 41.1 65 4.7 -4.7 3.0 43.3 43.3 Iowa 45.6 62 4.5 41.0 18.0 32.0 32.0 Kansas 44.6 63 28.3 11.4 18.1 n.a. n.a. Kentucky 44.7 58 55.7 39.7 19.5 n.a. n.a. Louisiana 45.8 n.a. 38.9 1.4 n.a. 19.3 7.0 Maine 45.5 62 31.5 15.4 15.0 16.8 40.3 Massachusetts 47.5 63 51.9 11.4 21.3 n.a. 23.8 Minnesota 45.4 62 35.6 19.4 5.1 1.8 22.7 Missouri 47.1 62 49.3 29.2 17.4 27.0 30.5 Montana 40.6 63 31.3 .9 1.9 5.2 n.a. Nebraska 47.6 n.a. 16.7 16.7 n.a. 15.4 n.a.
Nevada 42.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. New Mexico 41.0 60 5.2 2.3 10.3 7.5 8.6 New York 42.8 62 12.3 11.5 8.0 1.1 1.1 North Carolina 43.0 61 39.2 15.3 9.0 6.3 6.3 North Dakota 41.1 65 5.6 5.6 2.2 6.7 6.7 Oregon 47.6 61 25.1 25.1 15.4 30.8 38.0 Pennsylvania 42.0 59 77.1 13.7 12.9 22.3 14.9 Rhode Island 36.2 63 12.7 n.a. 4.0 18.2 25.5 South Carolina 43.4 60 41.0 40.2 15.1 29.9 33.0 South Dakota 46.2 63 23.4 4.5 12.0 8.9 n.a. Tennessee 39.4 62 30.0 30.0 8.6 3.6 14.0 Texas 48.3 61 52.6 40.4 24.5 19.3 8.4 Utah 49.8 64 37.1 27.4 13.5 16.1 16.1 Vermont 46.0 65 25.5 25.5 6.4 3.4 3.4 Virginia 44.6 63 15.0 2.7 7.8 27.1 27.1 Washington 41.5 62 n.a. 11.8 4.1 n.a. n.a. West Virginia 41.3 60 31.4 31.4 11.4 n.a. n.a. Wisconsin 45.5 61 34.4 15.8 18.6 4.4 24.0 Wyoming 40.9 62 40.2 15.1 10.2 20.5 18.3 Source: AASHTO survey of state transportation and highway departments for the Transportation Professional Needs Study, 1984 (updated in February 1985). Note: n.a. = data not available or unable to calculate; 40 states reporting. States differ somewhat in their definition of engineers, which should be taken into account in comparing the data. aCalculated by TRB from age-distribution data or average retirement age or both. bReported by states.
4 The Transit Industry The public transit industry in the United States includes more than 1,000 public and private systems operating motor bus and heavy and light rail transit as well as about 20 special systems such as cable cars, inclines, ferries, tramways, and automated guideway systems. Unlike the transit industry of 20 years ago, today more than half of the nation's bus and rail systems are publicly owned or operated. Some 556 public systems constitute the bulk of the industry, and they carry, 94 percent of the passengers and employ 92 percent of the transit work force (1). City governments operate nearly 64 percent of U.S. transit systems, special districts or public authorities run about 20 percent, and the remaining public systems are run by state or county government (Table 4-1) (2). of the 189,300 full- and part-time transit employees reported by the American Public Transit Association (APTA), approximately 174,000 are employed by public systems, most of them operated by local governments (3). Professional workers make up about 16 percent of the total transit work force. The definition of profession- als that applies to local transit agencies includes supervisory workers, which results in an inflated estimate. Normally, supervisory personnel, especially first-line supervisors, would be excluded, but no data are available to distinguish among executive, profession- al, and supervisory personnel. Thus, this definition of "professional" is very broad and tends to overstate the number of transit professionals. The Urban Mass Transportation Administration (UMTA) reports that 28,750 local transit workers are "executive, professional and supervisory" (4). This means that 11 percent of bus system employees; 16 percent of streetcar, 104
105 TABLE 4-1 Public Transit System Operation in the United States (2) Type of Operator Number Percentage State 7 11 County 85 15 Municipal 354 64 District or authority 110 20 Total 556 trolley, or demand-responsive system employees; and 30 percent of rail rapid transit employees are execu- tives, professionals, or supervisors (Table 4-2) (4). In addition, state government eaploys about 1,500 transit professionals (5), and 316 work for UMTA (Figure 4-1). TYPES OF TRANSIT PROFESSIONALS Transit is in many ways like a private business, and its professional needs are similarly varied. Public transit TABLE 4-2 Supervisory Executive, Professional, (EPS) Transit Employees and by Mode (4) Total Percentage Mode Employees Total EPS of Total Motor bus 122,401 13,342 10.9 Rail 47,945 14,192 29.6 Other 7,569 1,215 16.0 All 177,915 28,749 16.2
PUBLIC TRANSIT 174,000 PROFESSIONALS 30,000 BUS 13.300 FEDERAL STATE LOCAL _____ RAIL 316 1 1,500 28,800 14,200 OTHER ENGINEERS 1.200 44 PLANNERS EXECUTIVE OPERATIONS MAINTENANCE PLANNING! 30 1,900 ] 9,100 4,300 MARKETING 3.200 OTHER I 242 ADMINISTRATION! DESIGN! OTHER FINANCE CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING 6.300 1 3,000 800 FIGURE 4-1 Total transit work force (4,5).
107 agencies not only operate and maintain the bus and rail vehicles but also perform routine business tasks such as planning, marketing, inventory management, accounting, claims, litigation, and administrative support. Small transit agencies often hire a single professional responsible for several of these activities. In some localities, government agencies other than the transit firm may perform some of these functions. In these cases transit professionals are not included in the industry totals. The general manager or transportation director, for instance, may be responsible for bus operations, maintenance, inventory of spare parts, planning, and marketing, but the city budget department may handle financial matters. In larger multimodal agencies such as the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA), separate departments and offices within the organization handle each major function. For example, WMATA has five depart- ment heads reporting to the general manager, each over- seeing four or more offices (Figure 4-2). Some of the offices, notably in the Departments of Bus and Rail Service, are uniquely oriented to bus and rail service delivery, maintenance, and quality control. Other offices employ professionals with more general skills-- attorneys, accountants, real estate appraisers, public relations officers, and data-processing specialists, for instance. All of the larger transit agencies employ professionals in executive, operating, maintenance, planning, market- ing, financial, and administrative positions (Table 4-3). Smaller agencies, however, do not always have planning or marketing professionals on their staff, and some of the smallest systems do not employ financial or adminis- trative professionals. Some systems that operate fewer than 100 vehicles employ neither executive managers nor maintenance professionals; instead, these functions are handled by other government agencies or contracted out as needed. The largest concentration of transit professionals is in operations, which employs about 9,100--nearly one- third of all transit professionals (Figure 4-1). These operations professionals are responsible for dispatching vehicles, maintaining records, overseeing the delivery of transit service to the community, and training and supervising drivers and other employees. Maintenance ranks second in employment of transit professionals, employing about 4,300. Maintenance professionals manage
108 and supervise inspection, daily servicing, routine main- tenance, and major repair of transit vehicles. An addi- tional 6,300 professionals work in various administrative and financial positions in the transit industry. They perform a broad array of tasks including personnel admin- istration, building and facilities management, management information services, procurement and materials manage- ment, budgeting, accounting, claims, revenue operations, and disbursing. About 3,200 planning and marketing professionals employed by the transit industry are engaged in planning service levels, routes, and fares; preparing marketing information such as timetables and brochures; and promoting the system to the public. About 1,900 executives are engaged in top level management of transit systems and coordination with policy boards or elected officials. About 3,000 design or construction engineers and about 800 other engineers are employed by large rail transit systems that are building or recon- structing major facilities. Smaller bus-only transit agencies generally do not employ engineers but hire them on a consulting basis when a construction project requires it. FUTURE REQUIREMENTS FOR TRANSIT PROFESSIONALS Future requirements for transit professionals depend on three factors: Changes in transit service, ridership, and funding that will occur in future years, Retirement rates for professionals in transit agencies, and Attrition due to factors other than retirement such as long-term leave, disability, or job change. Each of these three factors is examined in turn. Growth The key forces shaping the number or type of transit professionals that will be needed in future years are changes in transit ridership, the kinds of services provided, and funding. Transit ridership and service are driven by changes in economic and demographic condi- tions, the geographical distribution of activities within
109 urban areas, the price and service characteristics of transportation facilities linking those activities, and public attitudes about the comfort, convenience, and acceptability of transit for various types of trips, particularly work trips. Public attitudes about the types of transit that should be provided also help to shape federal, state, and local governmental decisions to finance capital improvements, to subsidize transit operations, to initiate new routes, or to discontinue old services. Congressional action to reduce the deficit at the federal level could reduce transit funding and as a result transit service and professional requirements. Transit's share of urban travel will probably remain roughly the same from the present through 1990. Rising personal income in future years will most likely continue to increase the demand for automobile ownership and use, thereby increasing competition for transit service. The high cost of parking in central locations and the diffi- culty of driving in congestion will continue to make transit particularly attractive for commuting to central locations. Nevertheless, transit travel is a slow-growth market. The population of metropolitan areas increased about 2 percent per year in the 1970s and the central city population where transit patronage is heaviest increased less than 0.5 percent per year (6). Further, urban growth is expected to occur more rapidly in the sunbelt region of the country--where transit usage rates have been low--than in the Northeast and Midwest, where the rate of transit patronage is higher (7) . Although the introduction of some new services may alter the historic usage patterns in the sunbelt, the development patterns in these areas may not be conducive to intensive transit use. Nor is paratransit likely to alter the public's travel choices significantly. Some increase in the attractiveness of transit rela- tive to the automobile will occur as the proportion of elderly in the U.S. population grows from 11.3 percent in 1980 to 12.8 percent in 1990 (6). For the many elderly persons residing in suburban locations not well served by public transit, this increase will not be substantial. The proportion of the total population that is transportation handicapped is likely to grow from 4.1 to 4.5 percent from 1980 to 1990 (7) . This trend suggests an increasing market for specialized transportation services.
BOARD OF DIRECTORS General Manager Office of General Deputy Audit & Inspections Counsel General Manager Office of Office of Government Relations Public Affairs Department of Department of Administration Bus Service Asst. General Manager Asst. General Manager Office of Region Administrative Services H I Office of Quality Office of Civil ssurancel Lobor Rights Region LTraining Relations __________________ _________ Office of Mainte Office of ° I Mgmt. lnformatn nance Material F Region Services III Support Management Office of Trans Office Personnel portatunn of J Training Sopporl Support Planning * To be consolidated into Office of Procurement effective no later than December 31, 1985 FIGURE 4-2 WMATA organization chart. Department of Design. Construction & Facilities Mntn. Asst. General Manager Office of Construction Office of ⢠Office of Contract Engineering Administration & Architecture Office of Office of Facilities Program Maintenance Can trot Office of Real Estate
Secret Board Safety & Policy and [ Fire Protection tong Range Planning Department of Department of Finance Rait Service Aunt. 6oneral Manager Aunt. Generat Manager I Office of Car Accounting Maintenance of Analysis Ouafity Support Marketing A ss a ra n ce Office ot Of lice of Risk Systems Transit Police lity Management Transportation Maintenance Office of Training Support Services
TABLE 4-3 Types of Executive, Professional, and Supervisory Employees in Transit Agencies of Various Sizes Number of Systems That Employ Professionals Number of by Category Revenue Total Exec- Oper- Main- Planning! Financial! Vehicles Responses utive ations tenance Marketing Administrative 1,000 4 4 .4 4 4 4 500-999 4 4 4 4 4 4 250-499 10 10 10 10 9 10 100-249 21 20 21 20 16 21 50-99 12 12 12 10 9 11 Less than50 21 19 20 19 13 16 Total 72 69 71 67 55 66 Source: APTA survey of transit agencies for the Transportation professional Needs Study, 1984.
113 Since 1972--before the Arab oil embargo--the vehicle miles of transit service provided and the number of revenue passengers carried have grown about 2 percent per year, according to APTA statistics (Table 4-4). Bureau of the Census data, however, show a substantial decline in public transportation's share of urban work trips carried, from 9.0 percent in 1970 to 6.4 percent in 1980. According to the census figures, the total number of work trips made by public transportation decreased from 6.6 million trips per day to 6.2 million trips per day during that same period (8,9). Some of the apparent discrepancy between census and APTA statistics may be explained by differences in the rate of growth of nonwork transit travel, which is included in APTA but not in census tallies. Some may be TABLE 4-4 Measures of Transit Industry Growth, 1940-1980 (1) Year Annual Passengers (billions) Passenger Vehicle Miles (millions) Employees (thousands) 1940 13.0 2.596 203.0 1945 23.3 3.254 242.0 1950 17.2 3.008 240.0 1955 11.5 2.448 198.0 1960 9.3 2.143 156.4 1965 8.3 2.008 145.0 1970 7.3 1.883 138.0 1971 6.8 1.846 139.1 1972 6.6 1.756 138.1 1973 6.7 1.835 140.7 1974 6.9 1.907 153.1 1975 7.0 1.990 159.8 1976 7.1 2.026 163.0 1977 7.3 2.021 162.5 1978 7.6 2.028 165.4 1979a 8.1 2.045 178.7 1980a 8.2 2.095 189.3 alncludes part-time employees.
114 explained by different methods of counting trips that include transfers from one vehicle to another. APTA counts each link of such trips as a separate trip; the census counts the entire combination as a single trip. Regardless of these numerical discrepancies, neither set of statistics reflects substantial growth in the amount of transit travel. Employment in transit has generally risen and fallen with transit ridership since World War II. In the decade of the 1970s, employment has grown at a faster rate than ridership. During those 10 years transit employment grew at an average of 2.9 percent per year, whereas passengers (using APTA counts) increased at an average of 1.1 percent per year. The increase in professionals may have been smaller. For example, the need for execu- tive, professional, and supervisory personnel in small transit agencies (fewer than 100 buses) does not vary as much with changes in service volumes as does the need for bus operators and maintenance staff. The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects the growth rate for bus drivers to be in the range of 0.6 to 1.2 percent for 1982- 1995 (10). Future transit professional needs will prob- ably be in a similar range. Requirements for some professional transit skills, engineering, for example, are closely linked to growth in capital spending. Total mass transit capital grants have risen from $2.037 billion in current dollars in 1977 (1) to about $3.0 billion in 1983 (11), 6 percent per year. The corresponding increase in real dollars is about 1 percent per year. The 1982 Surface Transportation Assistance Act raises total authorizations for transit by about $600 million between FY 1982 and FY 1983. congress originally slated these authorizations to increase by an additional $550 million between FY 1983 and FY 1986 (II), but recent budget initiatives propose to undo this legislation. Even if authorizations increase on schedule, further program growth during this period is unlikely to occur once inflation is taken into account. The purchasing power of these authorizations will decline if the infla- tion rate averages 4.7 percent. It is assumed that the number of professional positions in transit will grow by 1 percent per year, predicated on a slight increase in transit usage due to demographic factors, a slowly growing urban population, and an increase in transit needs to accommodate the rising share of the elderly in the U.S. population.
115 This growth also accounts for any changes in productiv- ity likely to occur. Generally, the number of vehicle miles operated per transit employee has declined since World War II, perhaps due in part to shifts in geograph- ical coverage of service or the types of services provided. Public financial support for transit will continue to be tight, and public pressure for lean, well- managed, and efficient transit firms will mount. Overall, however, shifts in transit productivity are unlikely to make a sizeable difference in aggregate transit employment. Instead, any change in the total need for transit professionals will probably reflect changes in the amount of transit service provided and used. Retirement In addition to any new transit jobs that may arise through growth of the industry, retirements will create a substantial number of new professional openings. Part of these will be filled from within the organization and part from outside. Assuming that the total number of employees in these transit firms does not contract because of funding cuts or other reasons, additional recruits will be needed to fill position vacancies created by internal promotion. Retirement levels for future years can be projected from survey responses. Responding transit agencies reported the composition of their professional work forces by age as well as statistics on the minimum retirement age, the age at which an employee can retire with full benefits, and the average retirement age. In most transit agencies, professionals may retire as early as 55 but must work until 65 to qualify for full benefits. A minimum -length of service is usually also required. Most agencies report an average retirement age around 65, though the majority of the largest agen- cies report 62 (Table 4-5). Between 1985 and 1990, 26 percent of the existing total transit work force will be eligible to retire and 17 percent will be eligible to retire with full benefits (Table 4-6). Although these proportions are high, they probably exceed the industry's actual replacement needs. Past experience shows that many employees remain on the payroll after they are eligible to retire with full benefits. Indeed, because transit employees typically
TABLE 4-5 Average Retirement Age by Transit System Size Number of Revenue Number of Responses by Retirement Age Vehicles 55 57 58 59 60 62 63 64 65 66 67 Total, all systems 1 2 1 1 5 17 5 5 20 1 1 Systems with more than 1,000 revenue vehicles 1 1 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 Source: APTA survey of transit agencies for the Transportation Professional Needs Study, 1984.
TABLE 4-6 Transit Agency Retirement Eligibility, Attrition, and Hiring Plans, 1985-1989 Percentage Percentage Total Eligible Overall Percentage Employees Percentage to Retire Attrition Hiring in Function Eligible with Full Anticipated Anticipated Position Nationwide to Retire Benefits by Agencies by Agencies Executive 1,900 27.6 18.3 26.6 28.3 Operations 9,100 29.9 20.6 14.7 17.6 Maintenance 4,300 31.3 19.7 19.0 23.7 Planning and marketing 3,200 14.5 5.6 20.8 24.2 Financial and administrative 6,300 21.4 15.1 19.6 25.8 All professionals 26.0 17.0 19.0 23.0 Source: APTA survey of transit agencies for the Transportation Professional Needs Study, 1984. Note: Based on information from 59 transit agencies. Transit agencies may differ in their definitions of various kinds of professionals.
118 retire at 62, approximately 11.4 percent (2.3 percent per year) of the current transit work force can be expected to retire by 1990. This means that approxi- mately 3,000 executive, professional, and supervisory job openings will be created during the next 5 years to replace those who retire. other Attrition In addition to retirement, transit employees leave their agencies to change positions or for other reasons such as disability. Overall, transit agencies anticipate that total attrition due to retirement and other causes will amount to about 18.7 percent of the professional work force in the next 5 years. After retirements have been deducted, as discussed earlier, this leaves 7.3 percent of the professional work force--about 2,000 transit professionals--who will change jobs or drop out of the work force during the next 5 years. Although some of these professionals will leave the transit indus- try, many will probably remain working in transit but simply change agencies to advance their careers. Total Needs The foregoing discussion has identified three sources of professional job openings in transit that will surface in the next 5 years: Growth in the scale of transit activity, provided that federal funding cuts do not occur; Retirement; and Other attrition. Altogether, the figures imply that as many as 6,500 professional openings, including supervisory positions, will occur in the transit industry during the next 5 years. Because the expected attrition represents moves between different systems in the industry, the net number of new positions will be around 6,000, or about 1,200 per year during the next 5 years. Of these new jobs, About 600 per year will be due to retiring employees; About 300 per year will be due to employees who
119 die, become disabled, shift to jobs outside of transit, or leave the work force; and About 300 per year will be due to growth in transit employment. The largest number of new positions will be in opera- tions, finance and administration, and maintenance. Together, these three functions employ about two-thirds of all transit professionals; accordingly jobs requiring these functions make up most of the new openings. Demand for professionals in operations and maintenance positions will be high because a high percentage of employees in these positions are in the upper age groups as well as eligible to retire at full benefits. Agency Hiring Plans The preceding forecast appears consistent with the hiring plans reported by transit agencies. These agencies report 5-year hiring needs of nearly 23 percent of current professional staff levels. When this hiring rate is applied to the 28,750 professionals in local transit agencies, it implies that those firms will hire about 6,600 professionals by 1990. Some of the profes- sionals hired will be from within the industry; thus, the industry's hiring plans appear in line with the esti- mate of 6,000 new jobs developed earlier. FUTURE SOURCES OF TRANSIT PROFESSIONALS There is no single dominant educational source of new entrants to the transit professional work force. There are comparatively few college programs oriented exclu- sively toward transit management. Historically, transit professionals have been drawn from the ranks of non- professional staff in transit agencies. A 1973 study reported that more than 90 percent of transit managers began their careers in nonsupervisory transit positions (12). This situation changed during the 1970s. Fuel short- ages stimulated some resurgence of transit patronage. Federal funding for transit planning and capital programs increased, and other forces helped to arrest the transit industry's decline. Together these have increased tran- sit funding revenues and have enabled systems to hire
120 young graduates from planning, engineering, and many other backgrounds. The average age of transit profes- sionals is now about 10 years younger than it was in 1973 (Table 4-7). In addition, only operations and main- tenance positions continue to be filled predominantly by promoting from within the agency. In the future, key positions in transit will continue to be filled by a diverse array of professionals. A substantial number who fill professional positions in transit firms will continue to be promoted to profes- sional ranks from the pool of in-house support or opera- tions positions, but this is by no means the only source of skills on which the transit industry has to draw. New entrants are increasingly likely to be college- educated with a degree in business, engineering, planning, public administration, law, economics, or liberal arts. The 1,200 or so new professional positions in transit each year will provide employment only to a small fraction of the total number of graduates in these fields. The key issue is thus not whether there are enough graduates entering fields that will supply transit's future professional needs but whether effective ways can TABLE 4-7 Average Age Comparisons of Transit Professionals, 1973 and 1984 Average Age Position 1973 1984 Top management 51 45 Operations 50 43 Maintenance 54 43 Project engineer 58 42 Source: 1973 data from Mundy and Spychalski (12); 1984 data from APTA survey of transit agencies for the Transportation Professional Needs Study, 1984.
121 be found to interest these graduates in employment with- in the transit industry and to provide any specialized transit training that general educational programs cannot provide. SKILL SHORTAGES IN TRANSIT AGENCIES Some skills necessary for transit have been difficult to obtain. Although most transit agencies report that they have not experienced difficulty filling professional positions in the last 2 years, a substantial number of agencies report that they have had difficulty hiring those with selected professional skills. Nineteen agencies reported difficulty filling operations posi- tions and 21 reported problems hiring maintenance professionals (Table 4-8). Operations and maintenance professionals are difficult to hire because they ideally require a combination of management, supervisory, and technical skills. For example, a maintenance manager must assist the general manager and Board in accomplish- ing the agencies' objectives, supervise employees covered by labor contracts, and also direct the maintenance activities of the organization, which generally involves an understanding of mechanics (Table 4-9). Data processing or systems analysis professionals also appear to be particularly difficult to hire. Although this problem was not listed in the written questionnaire for this study, five transit agencies noted that they had difficulty in hiring data-processing professionals. There were only isolated problems in hiring attorneys, light rail operations professionals, engineers, sched- ulers, transit police officers, purchasing and grants specialists, personnel directors, Disadvantaged Business Enterprises/Women Business Enterprises officers, and claims specialists. Generally only one or two agencies mentioned difficulty in hiring those with these specialties. Among the larger agencies (more than 250 revenue vehi- cles) the most frequently cited hiring difficulty was in maintenance, with which 10 large agencies reported prob- lems (Table 4-10). Operations professionals were the second most troublesome group to hire for the larger agencies. Among the smaller agencies (less than 250 revenue vehicles) , these same two areas--maintenance and operations--again top the list of needs in a tie with
122 TABLE 4-8 Transit Hiring Difficulties Position Number of Responses Yes No All properties Executive 14 45 Operations 19 53 Maintenance 21 45 Planning/marketing 14 56 Financial/administration 11 47 Rail only Design/construction engineers 6 12 Other engineers 8 10 Other (write-in) Data processing 5 - Source: APTA survey of transit agencies for the Transportation Professional Needs Study, 1984. Note: Based on information from 90 respondents. Transit agencies may differ in their definitions of various kinds of professionals. planning and marketing. Large systems also reported difficulty in obtaining data-processing skills. Causes of Hiring Problems How do transit agencies explain their hiring diffi- culties? Respondents were asked to check applicable factors from a list of nine possible causes for problems recruiting, hiring, retaining, or utilizing professional staff. The results are summarized and reported by agen- cy size in Table 4-11. Two factors ranked well above the rest: lack of quali- fied applicants and low salary. Lack of advancement
123 opportunities was next in importance followed by low recruitment budget. The remaining causes in order of importance were program or funding changes, work loca- tion, civil service restrictions, hiring ceiling, and previous layoffs or attrition. The differences among agencies of different size appear to be slight except for the first two factors. At least half of the respondents with 250 to 1,000 revenue vehi- cles reported that lack of qualified applicants and low salaries posed difficulties. Fewer than one-half to one-third of the small agencies cited those two causes. Preliminary results of a study being performed concur- rently at the Center for Urban Studies at Portland State University corroborate these conclusions.,1 In 203 responses to a survey administered to 503 agencies, 61 transit agencies reported difficulties recruiting manage- rial personnel. The positions most frequently cited as being difficult to fill were maintenance supervisor (30), operations manager (16), and director or executive (9). On a scale from 1 (major problem) to 5 (no problem), 39 transit firms rated recruitment difficulty of managers 1 or 2, and 46 agencies responded with a score of 3. By far the most important reasons for recruiting problems were indeguate qualifications (50) and finances (45); organizational characteristics was given as the third most important reason (9). Difficulties in finding suitably qualified candidates may be due to relatively low salaries and other problems, and the hiring difficulties reported by some transit agencies may stem from a lack of vitality in parts of the industry. As reported in the proceedings of the Transportation Research Board's 1982 Conference on the Future Directions of Urban Public Transportation (13) .A long-term fundamental problem has been that new blood cannot be attracted into a declining industry. Only in the last decade has it been possible to attract some new managers as a result of the modest growth that has occurred, and now 1This study of transit manager career paths and training programs was funded by the Urban Mass Transit Administration. The results are preliminary, the responsibility of Sheldon M. Edner and Charles White at Portland State University, and have yet to be reviewed by the project sponsor.
TABLE 4-9 Typical Responsibilities of the Maintenance Manager of a Mid-Size Bus Agency Management Supervisory Technical Advises general manager on maintenance issues Develops major policies, procedures and programs for maintenance Administers labor agreement for employees in maintenance department Coordinates with other department heads Evaluates departmental performance Has overall responsi- bility for departmental budget development and management Serves as spokesperson for department Plans, directs, and coordinates activities of individuals responsible for major repair of buses, service vehicles, and related components and equipment Establishes and implements maintenance procedures for effective, efficient, and proper repair of all buses and service vehicles to ensure maximum utilization and life of equipment Analyzes labor and equipment report summaries for various bus maintenance activities and ensures timeliness of Bus Fleet Maintenance Reporting System Oversees development of plans for acquisition of new vehicles, shop and garage facilities, and equipment and rehabilitation of existing equipment Participates in inspection and testing of newly purchased equipment before acceptance by evaluating results for conformance to authority's standards and specifications Generally supervises mid-management level positions (superinten- dents) or mechanics depending on size of agency Responsible for final selection, promotion, and dismissal of employees under supervision of maintenance manager Identifies training needs and coordinates with department responsible for training programs Works closely with mid- management to execute policies, procedures, and programs
Serves as a member of labor negotiating team Manages and oversees departmental programs for management by objectives Develops performance indicators and program objectives and conducts or oversees analyses and evaluations of performance to determine progress toward goals Oversees and directs special projects for department Supervises and oversees preparation of near- and long-range forecasts for funds, personnel, equipment, and other operational needs Provides information, recommendations, and related assistance to collective bargaining process Discusses complaints and grievances with employ- ees or their representa- tives and attempts to resolve complaints using sound employee relations practices Evaluates employee performance Makes periodic visits to garage and repair shop areas to ensure standards of quality and volume of maintenance repair and inspection work Enforces safety policies for shop work areas and recommends changes as appropriate Ensures that an adequate inventory of parts is available to prevent delays in repairing buses and related service vehicles Conducts analyses of equipment failures and takes corrective action in conjunction with operating and staff personnel Participates in accident investigations to determine their causes and extent of damage to vehicles involved in such accidents Administers action to maintain morale and discipline
TABLE 4-10 Hiring Difficulties by Size of Transit System Number of Responses by Professional Category Number of Financial! Revenue Exec- Opera- Mainte- Planning! Adminis- Data Vehicles utive tions nance Marketing trative. Processing More than 250 6 7 10 2 5 5 Less than 250 7 11 11 11 5 0 Source: APTA survey of transit agencies for the Transportation Professional Needs Study, 1984. Note: Based on information from 90 respondents. Transit agencies may differ in their definitions of various kinds of professionals.
TABLE 4-11 Reasons for Hiring Difficulties by Transit Agencies Number Number of Responses by Reason for Hiring Difficulties Number of of Lack of Lack of Low Program or Work Revenue Respon- Qualified Low Advancement Recruitment Funding Loca- Civil Hiring Vehicles dents Applicants Salary Opportunities Budget Changes tion Service Ceiling Layoffs 1,000 or more 7 4 3 2 1 0 2 1 1 0 500-999 12 8 6 5 3 4 1 1 0 0 250-499 13 9 9 3 2 0 1 0 3 0 100-249 24 8 7 8 1 3 2 2 0 1 50-99 12 5 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 Less than 50 21 6 10 7 4 1 1 1 0 0 Not oper- ating 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 90 41 40 30 11 8 7 5 4 1 Source: APTA survey of transit agencies for the Transportation Professional Needs Study, 1984.
128 these benefits are threatened by loss of revenues from all levels and by changing federal policy.... Such difficulties tend to be self-perpetuating. On the one hand, low salaries and benefits fail to attract the best young professionals, and therefore there is a lack of qualified applicants entering the agencies. On the other hand, existing shortages of talent within the industry may contribute to the threatened decline and the relatively low wages in the industry. In the face of increasingly tight operating budgets, transit managers may be pressed to solve short-term prob- lems at the expense of long-term solutions. It is difficult to justify increased investment in human resources that does not have an immediate return when numerous difficulties that must be addressed immediately are being faced. The uncertainty of future federal support for transit also contributes to an uncertain outlook for employment opportunities. Growth or decline in federal funds for construction of urban rail systems will markedly affect demand for new transit professionals. If new systems proceed on a gradual timetable, only slight increases in demand will be seen, and sharp funding cuts could result in a large drop in professional needs. Today's college students making career choices are attuned to a field's potential for future opportunities. Opportunities in transit do not consist only of earning a wage, but also of learning a business, honing business skills, and becoming a more marketable professional in both the public and the private sectors. Even though professional employment in the transit industry provides many challenges simi-lar to business, transit agencies may have to reexamine the wages they offer professionals. The Dallas Area Rapid Transit System, a new agency established in 1983 to provide bus service and construct a 160-mile rail system, reported that it has had a difficult time attracting good appli- cants for positions because growth in other industries appears more promising. To help meet its needs for professionals, the Dallas agency has initiated a program of relocation reimbursement and has retained a consultant to evaluate its overall compensation scale. Internal constraints such as those posed by rigid civil service classification systems or professional employee labor agreements can also inhibit management's ability to meet professional needs. The nation's largest transit
129 agency, the New York City Transit Authority, is working to strengthen its management forces by altering the dual layer of union and civil service requirements that affects supervisory and management personnel. The changes proposed are designed to increase accountability and enable the transit authority to better use perfor- mance evaluations to motivate professional employees and select superior candidates for further advancement. Although hiring difficulties impede some agencies, most respondents to the survey did not report serious hiring problems or difficulty in filling positions. This may be due in part to transit management initiatives designed to boost productivity and assure that staffing levels are adequate to meet program requirements. STEPS TO MEET PROFESSIONAL NEEDS Among the various steps that transit management has taken to satisfy professional requirements, several appear to have had the most effect, according to industry survey responses (Table 4-12). Three of these are discussed in the following sections: TABLE 4-12 Actions Most Effective in Meeting Professional Needs of Transit Agencies Number of Responses by Size of Effect in Meeting Needs Action Large Medius Small Send professionals to management training courses outside the agency 23 36 17 Introduce or substantially increase use of automated management information systems 20 25 15 Use consultants for legal counsel, claims, or insurance management 22 14 10 Reorganize agency 16 11 13 Pay part or all of the costs for profession- als to receive supplementary formal education 14 17 25 Source: APTA survey of transit agencies for the Transportation Professional Needs Study, 1984.
130 Offering management training courses and under- writing formal educational costs, Using automated management systems, and Hiring consultants for legal counsel, claims, or insurance management. Reorganization was also frequently cited as an impor- tant means of enhancing productivity, although the survey did not collect information on the specific functions that were being grouped or relocated. Accordingly, it is difficult to fully describe the nature of this action or the gain in productivity. Training and Education Training and education top the list of actions that tran- sit agencies most frequently used and found effective. Indeed, preliminary results of the Portland State Univer- sity study mentioned earlier echo the importance of training. When transit agencies were asked what steps were being taken to overcome recruitment problems, of 78 firms answering the question, 38 cited internal training compared with 18 that mentioned financial incentives and 11 that reported a stronger recruitment effort. Transit systems have long recognized the need to train vehicle operators and mechanics, but only recently has training of professional employees been emphasized. During the past 10 years, the transit industry increas- ingly has recognized the benefits of training for improved performance and for building a solid organiza- tional management capability. Of 90 transit agencies that responded to a question on the effectiveness of training, 76 reported sending professionals to outside training courses and 23 found that this measure had a large effect. Fifty-six transit agencies pay for professionals to receive formal educa- tion; 14 found this to have a large effect. Other training steps were also heavily used and often found effective. Forty-eight agencies reported that they had recently introduced or expanded in-house manage- ment training courses, 47 reported that they had intro- duced or expanded technical training and retraining programs for professional employees, and 51 reported that they provide student internships, fellowships, or summer employment as a way of assuring a future source of well-trained professionals.
131 The Portland State University study revealed that the most important training needs, in order, are time manage- ment, human relations, financial administration, first line supervision, maintenance, operations, and computer training. The creation of a successful training program for the professional employees of transit systems requires each transit system to develop and execute a plan that is supportive of organizational philosophy, responsive to the training and professional development needs of indi- vidual employees, and cost-effective and affordable to ensure its longevity. To meet these conditions, the following observations about training programs should be considered: Training is a tool designed to improve performance and not an instant cure for performance problems. Training should be relevant to organizational objec- tives and needs as well as to the employees' needs and responsibilities. When feasible, the training function should be centralized within one department, such as the Personnel or Human Resources Department, but indi- vidual departments should retain some control over the more technical training. The policies and practices of the transit system should reinforce a responsive training program that results from a coordinated planning effort among the training director, top management, and depart- ment heads. Training for first-line supervisors should emphasize both technical training and managerial training, though technical competence should be maintained as a priority. People-handling skills become more critical at the middle and upper levels of management. Training programs developed and taught in house can be more responsive to an individual transit system than those taught externally. External courses should be used to provide training that a transit system does not have the resources to provide in house. Benefits of externally provided courses include - provision of training that a transit system cannot provide cost effectively or efficiently,
132 - introduction of new ideas and insights, - opportunity for cross-fertilization of ideas and information, and - exposure to experts in a specific field or area. All employees who receive training should be required to evaluate the effectiveness of the training program regarding its usefulness for job performance (14). Training programs for transit professionals are highly varied. Most existing programs are narrow, focusing on a few specific opportunities for training with little or no structure to facilitate the development of employees. Several agencies run sporadic programs as special needs arise. These programs generally include occasional training on site, training at local or regional institu- tions, periodic off-site training, generally on an as- requested basis, and sometimes tuition reimbursement programs. A few agencies have developed comprehensive programs to address the training needs of salaried employees at all levels and in all departments of a transit system. These programs include regular assessments of training needs and usually attempt to evaluate training effec- tiveness. Depending on the size of the transit system with a comprehensive training program, there is typically a training director or coordinator who has overall responsibility for the development, oversight, and admin- istration of training, although some training responsi- bilities may remain within specific departments. In addition, these programs provide training through the use of on-site training provided by in-house staff or contractors; external training at local or regional training centers, universities, or other facilities; and training provided nationally requiring short term leaves of absence. The Southern California Rapid Transit District (SCRTD) has developed a comprehensive training program that contains six key elements (14). First, it begins with a presupervision training program provided to hourly employees in the transportation and maintenance areas to prepare them for promotions to supervisory positions. Local consultants assist in the development of a 27-hour course that focuses on the role of the supervisor, oral communications, written communi-
133 cations, and career counseling for class participants. Enrollment in the course is voluntary. Completion of the course is not a prerequisite for promotion. Second, on becoming a supervisor, an employee must participate for several weeks in an on-site training program offered by SCRTD. This program emphasizes the responsibility of the supervisor, supervisory styles, team building, goal setting, employee selection and coaching, and personnel and Equal Employment Opportunity policies. SCRTD also relies on the Regional Transit Training Center at the University of Southern California to provide supplementary supervisory training to fit the needs of specific departments. Third, as employees progress to management positions, SCRTD furnishes both in-house and off-site training tailored more specifically to the needs of individual employees. Management has been working to remove the perception of training as a weakness and to establish training as an essential method to continually improve, develop, and update skills in both technical and manage- rial fields; to obtain interest and commitment for personnel development by both manager and supervisor; to provide relevant seminars of excellent quality; and to provide a system for continuous and progressive training and the review and update of individual development by use of performance appraisals. Fourth, each year managers and their supervisors rank their training needs after considering technical and nontechnical knowledge, skill, and ability. The training department then assists management employees to obtain training either in house or off site to meet those needs. SCRTD managers must participate in a minimum of 20 hours of training each year. Fifth, SCRTD has a management trainee program, estab- lished in 1974, to prepare qualified college graduates for anticipated staff and managerial vacancies. SCRTD rotates management trainees through 10 key departments, generally at 3-month intervals, to gain a comprehensive knowledge of the organization. Each department provides work assignments essential to its area and evaluates the trainee after each rotation. Finally, SCRTD offers a management training program specifically for employees in the maintenance and equip- ment and transportation departments. The program courses, conducted by the University of Southern California and designed specifically for this transit
134 firm, concentrate on managerial theory and applications. Participants receive university credit for each class and a certificate on completion of the program. Computers and Automated Management Information Systems Besides training, transit agencies have found that computer automation helps meet their professional needs. Of 60 transit agencies that reported using or substan- tially increasing use of automated management information systems, 20 rated these systems as having a large effect on productivity and staffing. Forty-one agencies indi- cated that they had introduced microcomputers. Twelve of these agencies rated microcomputers very effective in aiding productivity and helping to avoid staffing problems. This also helps to explain why data-processing professionals are in short supply in the transit industry. Although computers may help solve staffing and productivity problems, the market for computer profes- sionals is highly competitive and quality computer programmers and systems analysts are often difficult to hire and retain at wages transit agencies are accustomed to paying. That is, the potential productivity gains stemming from automated management information systems are substantial, but making an organizational commitment to tap this potential will tend to exacerbate hiring difficulties in the near term. Transit systems across the country are now using computers to schedule buses and trains, develop mainte- nance cycles, and count daily rides. The automation revo- lution has reached agencies of all sizes. For example, New York MTA's CENTRAK monitors the Authority's $8.5-billion, 5-year capital program. On a smaller scale, the Columbus, Ohio, 325-bus system uses a computer to advise passengers of routes and schedules. Callers to Columbus's Tel-A-Ride number hear a computer-generated voice with information about when the next bus will arrive at their stop. The general manager of the Santa Barbara, California, transit authority, which has grown from 12 to 76 buses in the past 15 years, views automa- tion as a special aid to the labor-intensive transit industry. In its newly automated accounting department, for example, Santa Barbara has been able to limit the staff to two accountants, whereas the system's budget has expanded tremendously (15).
135 Use of Consultants and Contractors Many transit agencies use consultants or they contract out work that might otherwise be performed by in-house staff. Forty-six transit agencies indicated that they retained consultants for legal counsel, and 44 contracted out their claims and insurance management functions. In 22 agencies the latter step was judged to have a large effect on productivity and in 20 agencies the former step was effective. The activities least often contracted out included bus rehabilitation, maintenance, and revenue functions. In rail transit systems, the functions most effectively performed by consultants and contractors included prelim- inary engineering and final design. Few systems used consultants for site planning or real estate functions. Other Actions Frequently Taken Sixty-three transit systems indicated that they had raised salary or wage scales in an effort to avoid staffing problems. Only seven agencies report that this step had a large effect; like any other employer, transit agencies need to adjust salary scales periodically to reflect increases in the cost of living. Such increases are made to keep pace with economic conditions and no immediate perceptible effect on productivity would be expected. In addition, 33 transit systems have recently introduced merit, bonus, or incentive pay systems. Nine agencies rated this action highly effective. Sixty systems reported that they have increased the hiring and advancement of women and minorities. Thirteen agencies judged this measure highly effective in dealing with staffing or productivity problems. All these conclusions represent the subjective judgment of transit agencies regarding effectiveness of different actions they have taken during the past several years. CHANGING SERVICE AND SKILL REQUIREMENTS As the character of publicly owned transit service changes in the next 5 years, the types of professional skills needed will change. In future years, most transit agencies expect to provide increased service of almost every variety--bus, rail, demand responsive, service brokering, elderly and handicapped, and charter and
136 contract services (Table 4-13). The expectations of transit agencies may be unrealistic in the face of proposed reductions in federal support for transit. These expectations also do not reveal any consistent trend toward more of any particular type of transit service in the future. Fewer transit agencies anticipate growth in rail service; this appears to reflect the relatively small number of rail systems now in place rather than any expectation that rail service will grow at a different rate than bus transit. Thus, the modal composition of services offered by transit agencies does not itself suggest any coming shift in the types of professionals needed by transit. There will be some shifts in the types of skills needed to support existing and future services. Nearly all transit systems foresee growing skill requirements due to new technologies, particularly computer programming and systems analysis (Table 4-14). A great number of TABLE 4-13 Changes in Service Level During Next 5 Years Number of Responses by Level of Service Type of Service More Less Same NA/Blank Rail transit 14 0 4 75 Regular route bus 49 11 23 7 Demand responsive 40 3 16 31 Service brokering 35 1 4 50 Elderly and handicapped 51 0 26 13 Charter and contract 40 6 27 17 Source: APTA survey of transit agencies for the Transportation Professional Needs Study, 1984. Note: Based on information from 90 respondents.
137 systems also expect increased demand for traditionally important capabilities, notably supervisory and training skills. Transit firms expect a moderate increase in their need for marketing, maintenance, operations, middle management, and labor relations skills. Transit agencies foresee only a slightly growing need for service broker- ing; financial, business, and economic analysis; trans- portation system management; scheduling; legal work; auditing; and engineering skills. FUTURE NEEDS The picture of the transit industry that emerges from these survey results is an industry that has weathered some difficult adjustments and is taking reasonable steps to deal with an uncertain future. In terms of staff resources, most transit systems are well endowed with a variety of professionals spanning all age groups and presumably levels of experience. On the whole, the diversity of fields that provide professionals to the transit industry will continue to graduate many qualified professionals. There should be no acute shortages over the next 5 or 10 years because of retirements and other types of attrition. Even so, many agencies have had and will continue to have difficulty hiring and retaining some types of professionals, particularly transit operations and main- tenance specialists. The key causes that are reported, such as low salaries and lack of qualified applicants, are attributable to the nature of the industry, and may in fact be reflections of fundamental uncertainties and image problems stemming from these uncertainties. Ttansit's slow-growth environment and constrained finan- cial picture contribute to a perception of this industry that tarnishes its appeal to new professionals. This image belies the many challenging problems and opportu- nities in mass transit. Use of new technology may help energize the industry, although this itself may aggravate the existing shortage in personnel with computer applica- tion skills. The industry has been applying a number of tools to cope with potential staffing problems. Investment in education and training is one of the most effective steps, along with increased use of new technology, use of consultants and contractors, and agency reorganiza- tion. Many systems are successfully using these tech-
TABLE 4-14 Changes in Skill Requirements Anticipated by Transit Agencies Change in Skill Requirements Greatest need Computer programming and systems analysts Supervisory Training Moderate need Marketing and information service Maintenance management Operations management Middle management Safety Human resource management Community relations Elderly and handicapped coordination Number of Responses by Level of Service More Less Same NA/Blank More - Lessa 71 1 13 5 70 58 1 31 0 57 56 0 32 2 56 53 0 35 2 53 52 1 36 12 51 46 1 41 2 45 46 2 38 4 44 43 0 44 3 43 43 0 39 8 43 41 0 46 3 41 38 1 42 9 37
Service planning Labor relations Least need Financial, business, and economic Capital programs management TSM Service brokering Scheduling Legal Audit Engineering 34 0 53 4 34 33 0 51 6 33 analysis 31 0 50 9 31 29 5 46 10 24 27 3 44 16 24 29 7 15 39 22 24 5 59 2 19 13 0 69 8 13 14 2 68 6 12 17 6 32 35 11 Source: APTA survey of transit agencies for the Transportation Professional Needs Study, 1984. Note: Based on information from 90 respondents. aRank ordering.
140 niques. Future transit professional needs will be met largely through these same techniques. Training will continue to be a key in helping transit develop the particular skills necessary for its efficient operations. CONCLUSIONS Some 556 publicly owned systems throughout the nation carry more than 94 percent of the passengers and employ 28,750 professionals. Transit management, like any other business, requires routine business tasks such as planning, inventory management, accounting, and administration. There are also functions unique to transit, such as the maintenance and operations of buses. The largest concentration of professionals in transit work in these areas. During the next 5 years transit will require about 1,200 new professionals (including supervisors) per year, mostly because of retirement, job changes, and other attrition. The largest number of new positions will be in operations, finance and administration, and maintenance. Transit does not draw on a single source of profes- sionals analogous to the way state highway agencies use civil engineers. Many transit executive, professional, and supervisory professionals worked their way up through the lower ranks. With growing federal support for tran- sit in the 1970s, transit professional positions have been filled from a broad spectrum of fields including business, engineering, planning, public administration, and law. For transit agencies the most difficult positions to fill are those of the maintenance and operations managers. Computer specialists are also difficult to hire. The reasons most often cited for hiring diffi- culties are lack of qualified applicants and low salaries. Several actions will help transit meet its professional needs: Training and education top the list of actions that transit agencies found most effective in meeting their professional needs and improving productivity. To obtain the best professional talent within the industry, agencies should review their civil service constraints and union regulations to identify and
141 correct any possible barriers impeding the advance- ment of top-quality professionals. Computer applications have assisted about half of the nation's transit agencies to improve productiv- ity or meet their staff needs; these agencies use computers for routing, scheduling, office automa- tion, and other applications. Heavier reliance on computer specialists will create new hiring diffi- culties because such specialists are in short supply. Reliance on consultants or contractors to help augment staff can also help satisfy in-house profes- sional requirements. REFERENCES Transit Fact Book, 1981. APTA, Washington, D.C., 1981. Census of Governments, 1982. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, 1983. Public Employment in 1982. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, 1983. National Urban Mass Transportation Statistics: 1982 Section 15 Annual Report. UMTA, U.S. Department of Transportation, 1983. 1983 Survey of State Involvement in Public Transportation. AASHTO, Washington, D.C., 1983. Statistical Abstract of the United States, 104th edition. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, 1983. Profile of the 80's. U.S. Department of Transportation, 1980. 1970 Census of Population. Volume 1 Reports, 4th Count Summary Tape and Special Tabulation. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce. 1980 Census of Population. Summary Tape File 3. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce. Monthly Labor Review. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, Nov. 1983. Public Law 97-424 (Jan. 6, 1983), Surface Transportation Assistance Act of 1982. 96 Stat. 2097. R.A. Mundy and J.C. Spychalski. Managerial Resources and Personnel Practices in Urban Mass Transit. Pennsylvania State University, University Park, 1973.
142 Future Directions of Urban Public Transportation: Proceedings of a Conference held Sept. 26-29, 1982, Woods Hole, Massachusetts. Special Report 199. TRB, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 1982. Training: Its Role in the Development of Transit Industry Professionals. MacDorman and Associates, Arlington, Va., 1984. Computers; Fast Becoming a Transit System's Best Friend. Mass Transit, Aug. 1984.
5 Local, Regional, and Federal Agencies LOCAL AND REGIONAL AGENCIES Generally the responsibilities and skills of profes- sionals in city, county, and regional government mirror the structures and principal activities of these organi- zations. In municipalities, of which there are about 19,000 in the United States (1), these responsibilities include planning, street construction and maintenance, traffic operations, parking, and in many cases, mass transit. These responsibilities may reside within a single agency such as a city department of transportation or public works or be scattered among many parts of local government. Of the approximately 3,000 counties in the United States (2), about 2,700 have some responsibility for roads, according to the National Association of County Engineers. In suburban and rural areas where automobile travel is predominant, counties often employ a single engineer or occasionally a highly qualified technician to oversee road construction, maintenance, and rehabili- tation. Sometimes a county engineer cares for the roads in two or three counties. A total of 1,100 to 1,500 counties have an engineer in charge of transportation. Others rely on appointees or technicians. A county engi- neer typically has a staff of four to eight, which may include several administrative assistants and technicians and occasionally an assistant engineer. Populous metropolitan counties employ far more engineers. For example, Baltimore County has about 1,500 employees in a public works department with responsibil- ity for planning, design, construction, maintenance, and operation of public facilities. A large county public works department generally has responsibility for roads, 143
144 bridges, solid waste disposal, drainage, and flood control as well as control of land development through subdivision regulation and water and sewer planning. Street and bridge maintenance and rehabilitation are usually the main transportation functions (Table 5-1). Such a county public works department often installs, maintains, and operates all traffic control and signal devices and may oversee the purchase, sale, and lease of county lands for public purposes; acquire right-of-way TABLE 5-1 Functions Most Often Allocated to the Public Works Department (4) Number of Jurisdictions Performing Function in U.S. Public Works Departmenta Function Cities Counties Street maintenance 568 66 Street cleaning 560 56 Catch basin cleaning 546 58 Street traffic sign maintenance 503 66 Catch basin maintenance 509 55 Street traffic sign installation 503 64 Public works vehicle maintenance 473 53 Street striping (marking) 446 57 SC collector maintenance 457 27 SC interceptor maintenance 450 28 Snow removal 400 45 Public works stationary equipment maintenance 389 38 S collector maintenance 396 22 Street tree maintenance 370 45 Street design 341 56 WCS interceptor maintenance 362 20 Street traffic sign manufacturing 353 50 Surveying 314 60 Bridge Maintenance 305 63 Traffic engineering 318 50 Street construction 306 49 SC retention/collection maintenance 340 22 Weed control 328 37 Solid waste collection 338 19 Police vehicle maintenance 341 32 Note: SC = stormwater control, WCS = wastewater collection system. aBased on responses to a survey from 916 cities and 159 counties.
145 for county roads; collect garbage; and perform varied tasks such as the extermination of mosquitos (3,4). Since the early 1970s many metropolitan counties have diversified their transportation role to include transit as well as air and water transport. For example, Montgomery County, Maryland, a highly urbanized county abutting the District of Columbia, has a department of transportation with a full range of responsibilities, including the operation of an extensive transit system. In urban areas, the responsibilities between cities and counties are divided in various ways. During the past 20 years, consolidation of metropolitan government functions has frequently led to joint city-county trans- portation organizations and contractual agreements. Often these arrangements pertain to funding, construc- tion, operations, or maintenance of major highway and transit projects. Sometimes different types of local governments, with state authorization, form special districts to provide a particular transportation service and achieve coordina- tion not otherwise feasible. Transit authorities are a common type of special district, although some special districts manage and operate airports, tunnels, and other facilities. The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, a multistate regional organization, and the Massachusetts Port Authority are two notable examples. Some regional governmental agencies have been created to coordinate the activities of the various local juris- dictions or states within their region. Indeed, depending on their size, metropolitan regions have from 11 to several hundred local units (5). According to the National Association of Regional Councils, nearly all of the 257 metropolitan statistical areas with more than 50,000 people (6) have established multipurpose or multi- jurisdictional planning organizations. These are region- al planning commissions (RPC5) , councils of government (COGs), or metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs). Though highway planning originated in the 1930s, it was not until the 1950s that both RPC5 and COGs began to proliferate through local initiative in order to produce long-range regional plans dealing with land use, trans- portation, and public facilities. Passage of the 1962 Federal Aid Highway Act required the coordination of federal, state, and urban highway improvement plans. Subsequent legislation required each state to designate MPO5 to receive funds from various agencies and coordi-
146 nate comprehensive transportation planning. The desig- nated MPOs in many cases were RPCs, COGs, or other agen- cies that already existed. The professional staff of regional agencies consists largely of planners and engineers, but these agencies have diverse responsibilities not limited to transporta- tion. Moreover, MPOs vary considerably in their imple- mentation powers. Only about one-fourth of the MPOs are single-function agencies responsible only for transpor- tation planning activities. Three-fourths are responsi- ble for a spectrum of activities such as land use and air quality planning, generally in addition to transpor- tation. One-half of the MPOs are purely advisory and one-third have very restricted implementation powers. Fifteen percent are both advisory and have legal powers to implement some plan elements, programs, or projects. The lack of implementation powers of many MPOs has hindered the full use of professional skills in some of these organizations (7). Growth in Needs Overall employment in local transportation agencies has passed through a phase of rise and decline from 1965 to 1982, whereas real spending on local highways rose from $16.7 to $18.9 billion (8). Employment in local highway- related activities in 1982 was nearly the same as it was in 1965, about 265000, after having reached a high of 298,000 in 1975 (Table 5-2). This pattern of employment is similar to that for the states. As employment has risen and fallen there appears to have been a gradual shift in the relative responsibility for highways from the federal and state levels to the local level. Local financing of highways has increased since 1965, whereas federal and state funding have declined (Table 5-3). Future trends in employment of professionals by local agencies depend on opposing forces that are difficult to predict. On the one hand, proposals for "new federalism" could bring growing responsibilities for local financing, maintenance, construction and rehabilitation of streets and roads, and mass transit. On the other hand, local public pressure to reduce taxes, cut costs, and keep the damper on public employment could restrain local activ- ities in these areas. Propositions 13 in California and 2 1/2 in Massachusetts have compelled many local agencies
147 TABLE 5-2 Employment in Local Highway Agencies (6) Number of Year Employees 1965 266,000 1970 271,000 1975 298,000 1977 290,000 1978 295,000 1979 285,000 1980 277,000 1981 265,000 1982 265,000 in these states to reduce their staff; future actions of this sort could decrease local employment further. In view of these opposing trends, the experiences of specific localities could differ sharply. Further, differences in economic development create substantially different local needs. Cities in the South and the West are likely to gain population relative to the Northeast and the North Central regions of the country. Cities undergoing rapid transformation, such as growing new high-technology cities, will experience the most marked change in travel and professional needs. Nationwide, however, central-city population will increase by only TABLE 5-3 Highway Spending by Different Levels of Governnient (billions of constant 1984 dollars) (8) Year Federal State Local Total 1965 15.1 26.1 8.3 49.5 1982 10.9 21.6 10.5 43.0 Annual percentage change -1.8 -1.1 +1.3 -0.8
148 0.4 percent per year on average from 1975 to 1990, and suburban and small urban areas will grow a bit faster. Urban travel will also grow slowly on average--around 1.3 percent per year. Transit travel will probably remain relatively static (9). Although realignment of governmental roles could substantially alter the need for transportation profes- sionals in local governments, the most probable course appears to be that employment in this sector will remain fairly static, too. This view is shared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which projects that employment of engi- neers by local governments will rise only 0.6 percent from 1982 to 1995 (10). Distribution of Professionals In general, in 1990, employment of transportation professionals in cities, counties, special districts, and regional agencies will likely approximate the 1984 level. Currently there are probably around 15,000 civil engineers, 22,400 engineering technicians, 5,000 plan- ners, and a mixture of perhaps 20,000 other types of professionals. Nobody knows exactly how many transportation profes- sionals work at the local and regional levels. If the ratio of professionals to the total number of transpor- tation employees at these levels is the same as that for the states, local and regional government have approxi- mately 43,000 professionals in transportation. Of these, as many as 16,500 may be civil engineers, the number resulting from subtracting the 30,000 engineers known to work for the state transportation organizations from the 46,500 estimated by the National Science Foundation to work in state and local government (11). The estimate of 22,400 technicians at the local and regional levels assumes that the ratio of technicians to engineers is the same as that for the states. There are approximately 1.2 engineers per technician in urban transportation agencies compared with a ratio of 1.4 in state agencies, but probably a higher ratio of engineers to technicians is found in rural county transportation agencies where there are smaller staffs and a large frac- tion of engineers have diverse technical and administra- tive responsibilities, including programming, budgeting, design, materials, construction, and maintenance. The estimate of 5,000 planners at the regional and
149 local levels is a rough extrapolation of membership data of the American Planning Association (APA) and the results of a Study of MPO5. The APA membership survey indicates that 12.5 percent, or 2,625, of the 21,000 members are involved in transportation and about 1,500 work in public agencies. According to a study of MPOs, the average staff size of the 100 largest MPOs is 38 people. On average 10 are professionals in transportation, implying that regional planning agencies in the 257 metropolitan areas through- out the country employ several thousand planners or others working in a planning capacity (7). The combination of the APA membership data and the estimate of the number of planners working in MPOs suggests that it is reasonable to estimate that 4,000 or 5,000 transportation planners work in city, county, and regional government. Replacement Needs Although the number of transportation professionals employed by local and regional governments will probably remain fairly constant during the coming decade, retire- ments and other attrition will still create needs to replace staff and replenish skills. County Engineers A large share of civil engineers now working in county governments entered these agencies shortly after World War II. Many of these professionals immediately capital- ized on their G.I. educational benefits, earned a degree, and entered county highway agencies. This cadre of engi- neers helped upgrade the network of county roads and highways after a long hiatus in roadwork during the war. Fully one-third of the county engineers in the United States are now older than 55 (Table 5-4), and nearly all of these older engineers will retire during the next 10 years. The retirement rate among civil engineers in county governments will probably exceed even the high rate for state highway engineers, which was discussed in Chapters 2 and 3. Further, large numbers of civil engineers departing from county government will leave a void that will be particularly difficult to fill. Because the staffs of so
150 TABLE 5-4 Age Distribution of County Engineers, 1984 Age Group Number Percent Less than 26 2 0.3 26-35 46 6.5 36-45 185 26.1 46-55 234 33.0 56-60 147 20.7 61-65 76 10.7 66+ 20 2.8 Total 710 Source: National Association of County Engineers. many county transportation departments are small, civil engineers running offices frequently have developed administrative, communication, and, management skills in addition to a wide variety of engineering skills. Good communication skills are essential in order to work successfully with county highway commissions and the public. Filling these vacancies with engineers of compa- rable depth and breadth of knowledge, skills, and experi- ence may be difficult for county transportation agencies stretched by thin budgets and low wage scales. Professionals in City Public Works Agencies The American Public Works Association reports that in 1980 about one quarter of the directors of public works agencies in the nation's cities were in the 55 to 65 age bracket (Table 5-5). This fraction is similar to the fraction of management-level engineers in the same age
151 TABLE 5-5 Age Composition of City Public Works Agency Management, 1980 (4) Percentage by Age Group Less than Position 35 35-44 45-54 55-65 Director 16 27 33 24 Key aide 22 26 31 20 group who currently work for state transportation organi- zations. In 1980 one-third of the directors of public works agencies were in the 45 to 54 age group compared with about two-fifths of the management-level engineers working at the state level. These statistics suggest that public works agencies will be as vulnerable as state agencies to substantial retirements of top-level manage- ment during the next decade. A slightly younger group is well positioned to fill many positions vacated by retiring directors of public works agencies. In 1980, 20 percent of the key aides to these directors were in the 55 to 65 age bracket and 31 percent were in the 45 to 54 age bracket. Data are not currently available to describe the age composition for other professionals in public works agen- cies. Presumably numerous individuals with engineering, planning, or other degrees, such as public administra- tion, offer a constellation of skills useful for filling top management and administrative positions. It is not known whether the ages of these engineers and other professionals are skewed toward the older end, with the result that an abnormal wave of retirements will occur. More than half of the aides to directors of public works agencies have been in their present positions for at least 8 years and have acquired considerable experi- ence necessary to fill the top position, if called upon to do so. If top positions are filled by political appointees from outside these agencies or by less- experienced professionals, much on-the-job training or other specialized training will be required, particularly in management, administration, and some of the specific transportation areas handled by public works agencies.
152 Planners Professionals in planning positions appear to have higher than average attrition because of shifting organizational roles, fluctuations in the size of individual agencies, and shifts in the relative attractiveness of other career opportunities for planners, either in other government agencies or in the private sector. Much of this shifting is within different parts of the planning profession, so that the net need for professional planning skills is little affected. Nationally, relatively little net attrition of planners will probably occur because of retirements or deaths. On average, planners are relatively young. Colleges and universities have been cultivating planning as a formal discipline generally since the early 1960s, the impetus being highway corridor planning and social programs to improve housing and health and to revitalize the inner cities. The passage of the National Environmental Policy Act forced planners., engineers, and social and natural scientists to work in multidisciplinary teams to prepare environmental assessments of plans, programs, and projects. The 1973 Arab oil embargo and subsequent soaring energy prices instigated emergency energy contin- gency planning. In the scramble to adjust to these external shocks, transportation agencies boosted their hiring of planners in the period 1965-1975. Many of those hired were recruited directly from master's-degree planning programs in colleges and universities, though some were new civil engineers who learned planning skills in addition to the traditional engineering ones, and others were from related fields valuable to planning such as economics, sociology, geography, and ecology. Though planning continues to be vitally important, the heyday of planning in local agencies occurred in the late 1960s and the early 1970s. consequently, a larger fraction of plan- ners in local transportation agencies are relatively young compared with the situation 10 years earlier and retirement does not appear to pose a widespread problem. Special Needs Three professional needs of local and regional transpor- tation agencies stand out because of the large number of county civil engineers expected to retire and the heavy
153 traffic volumes and multiple jurisdictions in urban areas: Training replacements for retiring county engineers, Increasing traffic operations and control skills, especially in urban areas, and Improving communication, coordination, and implemen- tation skills, particularly to make better use of planners. Training County Engineers Bringing in or promoting less-experienced engineers or more technicians for the counties' top highway jobs as one-third of the professionals retire during the next 5 to 10 years could erode the quality of county transpor- tation management and engineering. Compensating training must be given to provide new entrants with the necessary mix of skills. Reconstruction, rehabilitation, and main- tenance projects are the predominant activities of county engineers and require a broad range of skills, including design, drainage, material property characteristics, and to a lesser extent vehicle operations and traffic control skills such as signing and signalization. Even with qualified entrants, there is nonetheless an adjustment process as on-the-job and other special training take place to provide these and management and administrative skills. 1 National Association of County Engineers report regarding personnel practices emphasizes that training cannot be overly stressed (3): The value of training personnel is immeasurable.... Not all county highway departments will have the staff or finances to establish and conduct a training program. Nevertheless, the county engineer should not ignore the possibility of training programs for his [or her] employees. There are many training programs and courses that are avail- able. Many universities and colleges sponsor courses that will be applicable to county highway department employees. Private industries, partic- ularly in the fields of transportation and equipment manufacturing, will sponsor programs and courses. Many professional organizations, such as the
154 Institute of Traffic Engineers, also sponsor courses. State Highway agencies, and Federal agen- cies, including the Federal Highway Administration, sponsor courses. No county highway department should be without a training program for its employees because it can't afford to initiate its own program. There are a wealth of courses and programs being offered constantly. Wherever possible, counties should groom qualified staff to replace those expected to leave. In addition, after an employee fills a county engineering post, continuing training and education are crucial. Learning by doing will characterize such training, but more formal training programs will be valuable to sharpen administra- tive and management skills and to keep up with the state of the art. County engineers frequently work without having frequent contact with others of similar training. Often their relative isolation requires that special steps be taken to acquaint them with improvements in highway main- tenance and construction practices. In the future, recycling and the deployment of prefabricated structures will become more frequent; life cycle cost analysis will become common as the lifetime costs of different highway treatments become better known; and undoubtedly standards or guidelines for design, reconstruction, rehabilitation, and resurfacing will change. The state of the art in engineering practices will also change as vehicle design and the traffic mix change. Keeping county engineers abreast of these changes will require continuous retraining as technology evolves. Also, exchange of information on new engineering, administrative, and management techniques among county engineers will help overcome any isolation they may experience. Traffic Operations and Control Skills Ever-increasing traffic operations and control problems create special professional needs. Most large cities depend on complicated computer simulation models to determine origins, destinations, and routings of automo- bile and bus trips as well as choice of mode. Efficient strategies for signal timing require sophisticated engi- neering and economic analysis skills. The installation, maintenance, and repair of traffic control devices
155 require technicians with considerable skill in electron- ics, understanding of traffic engineering principles, and a keen sense of what is practical and safe for moving vehicles, pedestrians, and even bicyclists. Furthermore, during the construction and maintenance of streets and highways, traffic control specialists often must reroute traffic or improvise temporary signal arrangements. The Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) recently completed a survey of functions, organization, and administration of urban transportation agencies. Data were obtained from 133 cities with a cumulative population of more than 30 million. These cities report overall current staff levels of 2.7 traffic engineering professionals plus 2.3 traffic engineering technicians per 100,000 population in cities with more than 50,000 people (Table 5-6). A comparison with a similar study done in 1975 shows that cities with populations of more than 100,000 have increased their professional traffic engineering posi- tions by 13.1 percent and their traffic engineering tech- nician positions by 23.8 percent during the last decade (Table 5-7). This increase has taken place despite over- all budget and hiring retrenchments for local agencies during this time period and a decrease of 11 percent in the number of employees in highways at the local level of government. Responses from ITE's survey of local transportation agencies administered for this study, although very limited in number, point toward a need for more traffic control and operations skills. Although there were only TABLE 5-6 Traffic Engineering Professionals and Technicians in Urban Transportation Agencies, 1985 Population5 (000s) Number of Cities Ratio per 100,000 Professional Population Technician Total 50-100 60 2.8 2.0 4.8 100-250 44 2.9 2.1 5.0 250-500 16 2.3 2.6 4.9 500-1,000 11 2.3 3.0 5.3 More than 1,000 2 1.4 1.7 3.1 Total 133 2.7 2.3 5.0 Source: Institute of Transportation Engineers. 5Cities with population of more than 50,000.
156 TABLE 5-7 Traffic Engineering Professionals and Technicians in Urban Transportation Agencies, 1975-1985 Percent 1975 1985 Growth Number of traffic engineering professionals per 100,000 populationa 2.3 2.6 13.1 Number of traffic engineering technicians per 100,000 populationa 2.1 2.6 23.8 Source: Institute of Transportation Engineers. acities with population of more than 100,000. 18 respondents, almost one-half identified traffic engi- neering and nearly as many reported transportation plan- ning as critical staff shortages. No more than four cited staff shortages for roadway and structural design, construction inspection and management, and environmental analysis (see Appendix F). Like the states, most of these 18 local agencies fore- see their highway program shifting from construction to rehabilitation and maintenance over the next 5 years. But local agencies also stressed a larger traffic opera- tions program. Besides computer programming skills, these agencies expect the greatest need in traffic handling and operations skills, followed by planning, inspection, and maintenance management. The Dallas Department of Transportation has undertaken a concerted effort to enhance the skills of its staff to cope with the traffic handling and control problems of a city expected to grow from 900,000 in 1984 to 1.1 million by 2000. This three-division department with a budget of $7.4 million in 1984 has 240 full-time workers. The field operations division, responsible for signal mainte- nance and construction in addition to signs, markings and meters, has the most employees--189 workers including 10 engineers. The traffic systems division has six engi-
157 neering positions, and all but two others are drafters, inspectors, traffic control specialists, or computer programmers. The planning division is composed mainly of planners and planning technicians but also includes a few engineers. The most noteworthy strategies taken by the Dallas Department of Transportation to meet its traffic control skill requirements are as follows: Instead of hiring experienced traffic signal tech- nicians, inexperienced workers are hired and trained especially for the job. Personnel are cross-trained in different divisions and task forces are used to generate suggestions for improving productivity. The Dallas Department of Transportation finds that it is unable to pay salaries sufficiently high to attract signal technicians from other cities; thus it trains its own. The signal technicians earn step raises as they progress through the training program. By the time a traffic signal technician gets a 2-year associate elec- tronics degree or equivalent training, his pay will have risen to the point where it is competitive and the city will be able to retain him or her for at least several more years in most cases because the technicians are not so easily attracted to other agencies or firms. The training program has several alternative paths and all rely heavily on on-the-job training. In addition to supervised field training at work, technicians can acquire the skills they need through home study courses, by obtaining an associate electronics degree through Dallas County Community College, or through a combination of audiovisual training offered on the job, seminars provided by Texas A&M University, and training programs provided by vendors of traffic signal equipment. In most cases a review board determines whether a technician has acquired the knowledge and skills to advance to a higher position. - The department has also cross-trained a number of engi- neers in the operations and systems division to encourage better communication. In addition, it has found that task forces involving professional staff from more than one division have been the most effective way to generate ideas for improving productivity, engage employees in new projects, expose them to different parts of the
158 department, and nurture responsibility. Task forces must complete special projects within a deadline and the team members share in the presentation of task force results to top management. Communication, Coordination, and Implementation Skills Regions and counties often include many jurisdictions, each of which has its own implementation agency. At the same time, the areawide/planning function is often vested in a multijurisdictional agency with limited or no imple- mentation powers. Effective planning in these circum- stances requires that professionals practicing planning have a thorough understanding of organizational behavior as well as highly developed communication skills. The Transportation Research Board Conference on Urban Trans- portation Planning in the 1980s stressed the difficulty of implementation in a multijurisdictional environment and recommended that facilities planning be conducted over a shorter time horizon than in the past and that project planning be conducted by those who have responsi- bility for implementation (12). A recent study of MPOs concluded that the proliferation and decentralization of planning activities at the local level can affect the quality of transportation decision making, especially if interagency communication deteriorates and jeopardizes the maintenance of a coordinated comprehensive transpor- tation'planning effort (7). And the report of the Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations echoed the difficulties of implementing metropolitan planning (5). The difficulties of coordination and communication among some localities indicate a pressing need for professionals in planning agencies to enhance their communication skills, understand organizational behavior and dynamics, appreciate the political viewpoint, be opportunistic, and foster ways to become directly involved in implementing projects, programs, and plans, even if this means concentrating on the short run. Valuable skills are those useful for persuasion, team- work, and communicating technical information to nontech- nical and politically sensitive people. Increasingly, planners need to cultivate engineering skills, specifi- cally traffic operations and control skills, in order to be useful to engineers and engineering technicians at the local level. Planners should also cultivate econom-
159 ic analysis, business, and other entrepreneurial skills useful for cost estimation, service brokering, and launching joint public and private enterprises. At the same time planners should not sacrifice their ability to portray the more distant future and to generate strate- gies for responding to changes in the internal and external environments. Salaries of Planners Salaries of planners differ depending on the employer and the level of experience of the employee (Table 5-8). Of the various organizations that employ planners, coun- ties, joint city-county government, and metropolitan and regional agencies offer the lowest salaries. Planners fare better in city government, but not as well as in the federal government, private consulting firms, or business. The median salary of planners has more than kept up with inflation since 1981. It climbed from $25,990 in 1981 to $29,630 in 1983, according to APA survey findings. This 14 percent increase exceeds the cumulative inflation rate of 9.3 percent for the period. The increase is due in part to a significant rise in the median level of experience of respondents to the APA salary survey, through which salary data were collected. FEDERAL AGENCIES The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) and the Urban Mass Transportation Administration (UMTA) within the U.S. Department of Transportation are the main public employers of civilian highway and transit professionals. In addition, highway safety professionals work for the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), also part of the U.S. Department of Transportation. Currently UMTA employs approximately 316 professionals, including planners, engineers, and others. Its future requirements depend on future Administration and Congres- sional decisions on the appropriate federal role in urban transit programs.
TABLE 5-8 Planners' Median Salaries by Employer and Experience (13) Median Salary ($) Less than 5 years' experience City 21,000 County 18,600 Joint city-county 17,814 Metro/regional 18,000 State 21,000 Other state 21,624 Federal 27,985 Private consultant 22,000 Business 25,500 College/university 23,000 Foundation 19,000 Between 5 and 10 years' experience City 27,622 County 26,000 Joint city-county 25,000 Metro/regional 24,715 State 28,000 Other state 28,379 Federal 31,300 Private consultant 31,350 Business 32,237 College/university 30,000 Foundation 30,000 More than 10 years' experience City 36,000 County 33,700 Joint city-county 31,650 Metro/regional 35,000 State 35,535 Other state 39,838 Federal 45,000 Private consultant 43,000 Business 48,300 College/university 40,000 Foundation 41,000
161 NHTSA This federal agency, established by Congress in 1970, is responsible for reducing deaths, injuries, and economic losses resulting from traffic accidents. NHTSA carries out its mission by setting and enforcing safety perfor- mance standards for motor vehicles and providing grants to state and local governments, enabling them to orga- nize, develop, and implement their safety programs more effectively in such areas as occupant protection, drunk driving, pedestrian and motorcycle safety, and emergency medical programs. From 1980 to 1984-the total number of employees in NHTSA declined from 874 to 640. In terms of numbers, the most important classes of professionals in the agency are engineers and highway safety and program specialists. From 1980 to 1984 the number of engineers dropped from 151 to 106 and the number of highway safety specialists and program managers fell from 98 to 77. In 1984 33.1 percent of the engineers and 32.5 percent of the highway safety and program managers exceeded 55 years of age. About the same fraction of each were eligible for optional retirement, which means that they had attained 55 years of age and 30 years of service or other combinations of age and service resulting in eligibility. NHTSA expects to have roughly the same number of employees in 1989 as in 1985, and so new hires will equal replacement and other attrition but will not consist of any additions due to growth in its programs. NHTSA expects that its program 5 years from now will be simi- lar to what it is today, although it could tilt slightly more toward state and community safety programs. This might slightly increase the agency requirements for safety specialists. FHWA According to the information FHWA provided in a question- naire identical to the one AASHTO sent to the states, the employment level of this federal highway agency has been declining during the last 10 years. The total number of employees fell from 4,808 in 1975 to 3,261 in 1984 and the number of engineers dropped from 1,636 to 1,272. The fall-off in employment has not been due to reductions in force or layoffs, but attrition. The
162 agency was hiring professionals primarily at the entry level in the 12 months preceding June 1984 but said it experienced no unusual difficulties. This situation was generally attributable to two factors. First, the avail- ability of special federal salary rates for entry-level civil engineers enabled the agency to offer wages compet- itive with those of private industry. Second, the openings available for professionals have been quite limited during this period because of the overall decline in agency employment levels. The most significant actions that FHWA has taken in the past to meet its staffing needs and enhance produc- tivity have been introducing computer-aided design and microcomputers; instituting team-building exercises or quality circles; using technicians for construction inspection; introducing or expanding technical training and retraining programs for professionals; and increasing promotions within the agency. These actions could be a response to a shortage of skills or could be aiding the department in reducing its staff. In the next 5 years (1985-1989), FHWA foresees more major construction and rehabilitation of highways. It also anticipates additional work on bridges and in traffic operations. It expects the level of the mainte- nance program to remain unchanged. On the assumption that it will operate under the same total real budget 5 years from now and that only the program mix will change, FHWA expects to need more of the following skills: Construction inspection; Rehabilitation and recycling; Traffic handling and operations; Selected technician skills (inspection and project management); Computer programming and systems analysis; Accounting; Financial, business, and economic analysis; and Transportation system management. The agency expects to need fewer of these skills: Administration and personnel; Middle management; Supervisory; and Surveying by technicians.
163 If the federal highway program were to increase 25 percent in real dollars, F}IWA believes that the most important increase in skill needs or types of staff would be in the areas of construction inspection, traffic handling and operations, and financial, business, and economic analysis. If a 25 percent real decline in the program occurred, the types of skills and staff that it would most reduce would be middle management, super- visory and administrative and personnel. The data in Table 5-9 indicate that the agency's staff is not skewed toward the older age brackets, and so future retirements appear routine. Of a total of 1,317 engineers, only 323, or 24 percent, will be eligible to retire with full benefits on or before 1989. The agency expects to lose 331, or slightly more, through attrition of all types and plans to hire an equal number to replace them. CONCLUSIONS Transportation professionals working in the 19,000 munic- ipalities and 3,000 counties in the United States have wide-ranging administrative, management, planning, and engineering responsibilities and often work in a complex setting, particularly in urban areas with heavy traffic where from 11 to hundreds of local units make up a metro- politan region. Frequently regional and metropolitan planning organizations such as regional planning commis- sions and councils of government are primarily advisory and do not have strong implementation powers. Employment in local transportation organizations has risen and fallen during the past three decades in a pattern similar to that in the state agencies and currently rests at 265,000. The exact number of profes- sionals in local and regional transportation agencies is not known, but the little information that exists suggests that there are around 15,000 civil engineers, 22,400 technicians, and 5,000 planners plus 20,000 other types of professionals. During the next 10 years the professional employment levels in most local transportation agencies will be roughly what they are today, reflecting negligible growth in urban population. This conclusion is consistent with the Bureau of Labor Statistics employment projection for engineers at the local level of 0.6 percent per year from 1982 to 1995.
TABLE 5-9 Current Age Distribution and Future Retirement, Attrition, and Hiring Plans of FHWA ⢠Age of Current Staff (number by age group) Future Staff (1985-1989) (number by category) Retired Less Eligible Lost Type of than ⢠with Full Through To Be Professional 26 26-35 36-45 46-55 56-60 61-65 66+ Total Eligible Benefits Attrition Hired Management-level engineers 0 0 22 88 18 5 0 133 n.a. 74 46 46 Other professional engineers 46 274 405 358 67 27 4 1,181 n.a. 249 285 285 Engineering technicianS 39 57 67 114 29 7 1 314 n.a. 100 127 127 Source: FHWA. Note: n.a. = data not available.
165 Replacement of planners because of future retirements does not appear to be a problem because most are rela- tively young, having been hired during the 1960s and 1970s when legislation created new planning requirements. One-third of the county engineers now exceed 55 years of age and are expected to retire in the next decade. Retirement of county engineers will leave a void that will be particularly difficult to fill. A large percentage of engineers running county engineering offices have responsibility for design, construction, inspection, and maintenance of county roads in addition to management and administrative functions. Three special needs of local agencies stand out: The retirement of one-third of all county engineers in the next decade creates a need to train replace- ment candidates to fill the positions vacated. There will be a pressing need to replace, among others, rehabilitation, administrative, and management skills. The complex traffic patterns and growing volumes of motor vehicles in and near cities create special needs for traffic operations and control personnel including signal technician specialists and profes- sionals with computer skills. The complexities of transportation decision making in urban areas made up of many local units create needs for professionals with strong communication, coordination, and implementation skills. Also, the relative isolation of rural county engineers with diverse, heavy responsibilities, often in two or three counties, creates a need for special training and technology transfer so that county engineers can share information and experience. At the federal level, FHWA expects a continuing focus on major construction and rehabilitation work, growing bridge and traffic operations work, and commensurate skill requirements in the future. NHTSA foresees a slight shift in skill requirements toward occupant protection, drunk driving prevention, and emergency medi- cal programs. UMTA's future professional requirements are uncertain as it awaits Congressional action on future funding.
166 REFERENCES The Municipal Year Book. International City Management Association, Washington, D.C., 1984. The County Year Book. National Association of Counties and International City Management Association, Washington, D.C., 1984. National Association of County Engineers. Organization-Personnel- Purchasing, revised ed. Action Guide Series. Research Foundation, National Association of Counties, Washington, D.C., July 1972. Public Works Management Trends and Developments. Special Report 47. American Public Works Association, Chicago, 1981. Toward More Balanced Transportation: New Intergovernmental Proposals. Report A-49. Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations, Washington, D.C., Dec. 1974. Statistical Abstract of the United States, 104th ed. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, 1983. R. Schmitt, J. Weitman, and E. Beimborn. An Examination of Methods for Coordination of Transportation Planning Activities. Center for Urban Transportation Studies, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, April 1982. Highway Statistics. FHWA, U.S. Department of Transportation, annual series through 1982. Profile of the 1980's. U.S. Department of Transportation, Feb. 1980. R.E. Kutscher. Future Labor-Market Conditions for Engineers. In Labor-Market Conditions for Engineers: Is There a Shortage? National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1984. U.S. Scientists and Engineers, 1980. NSF 82-314. National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C., 1982. Urban Transportation Planning in the 19801 s: Proceedings of a Conference on Urban Transportation Planning in the 1980s, November 9-12, 1981, Warrenton, Virginia. Special Report 196. TRB, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 1982. Planners' Salaries and Employment Trends, 1983. American Planning Association, Chicago, 1984.
Outlook for Entry-Level Civil Engineers for State Highway Agencies Graduating engineers are the primary source of profes- sionals entering state departments of transportation. These agencies generally recruit entry-level profession- als directly from the graduating classes of university engineering schools and train them on the job. The career path for a professional engineer from an entry- level position to a management or senior engineering position typically requires many years of experience in varied organizational roles. The continued success of this method in nurturing the professional skills needed at all levels of the organization clearly depends on a continuous supply of qualified graduates entering the field. Most of the positions vacated by retiring engineers during the next 5 or 10 years will require far more back- ground and experience than can be provided by entry-level engineers who will soon be starting their careers. Nevertheless, the pending surge in retirements within state departments of transportation will initiate a sequence of promotions and reorganizations that, when traced through the organizational hierarchy, will ulti- mately lead to an upturn in the number of entry-level engineers hired. Thus ensuring an adequate supply of new graduates must be part of any long-term resolution of professional needs. The output of the nation's educational system is at a turning point, however. In the past 15 years, college enrollments have risen as the baby-boom generation entered college and as the proportion of high school graduates entering college increased. The coming decade will bring a decline in the size of the college-age popu- lation, and the fraction of that population entering college will not continue to grow. If these trends 167
168 continue, the number of college enrollments will decline in the years ahead. The share of these graduates that enter civil engineer- ing may continue to decline. Although this share has declined throughout the last decade, the effect was not obvious in the job market because baby-boom-driven increases in the total number of graduates more than offset the ever smaller share of the graduates studying civil engineering. The number of civil engineers crept up even as the share of engineering students entering civil engineering dwindled. The coming decade will begin with both these trends headed downward--total graduates and the civil engineer- ing share. The result will be that the number of civil engineering graduates will decline rapidly, which could lead to shortages of qualified entry-level engineers several years hence unless recent trends are reversed. Moreover, a redefinition of engineering requirements reflecting rehabilitation needs could aggravate any shortage unless engineering students acquire the appro- priate skills or other professionals who have the needed skills play a more integral role in highway decision making. In examining whether the future supply of entry- level engineers to state highway agencies will be suffi- cient, it is helpful to focus separately on five components: The outlook for future college enrollments in general, particularly in engineering fields; The share of engineering students entering civil engineering; The number of new graduates who are U.S. citizens and able to work in the United States; The proportion of new graduates recruited by state highway agencies; and The number of new engineers recruited by states compared with the number of new recruits needed. Eà ch°of these five components is explored in sequence later in this chapter. Before turning to future trends, however, the current market for civil engineers is sketched briefly. CURRENT MARKET FOR CIVIL ENGINEERS Currently there appears to be an adequate supply of civil engineers available to the states. This conclusion is
169 supported by the following labor market indicators: Recent declines in job and salary offers to new engineering graduates, Small changes over time in the salaries of state highway engineers relative to other kinds of engi- neers in positions of comparable responsibility, and Few major industrial employers reporting a lack of qualified applicants for civil engineering job vacancies. The College Placement Council reports that the number of job offers to new graduates receiving bachelor's degrees in civil engineering more than doubled from 1977 to 1981 but then plummeted by 80 percent in 1983, proba- bly largely in response to the severe recession in the construction industry (Table 6-1). In contrast, job offers to electrical engineers have been two to three times those to civil engineers and fell only 23 percent from 1981 to 1983. Average monthly starting salaries of new recipients of civil engineering bachelor's degrees declined in nominal dollars from $1,925 in July 1982 to $1,869 in July 1983 and then rose slightly to $1,897 in July 1984. In real terms, the 1984 salary was lower than that for most other engineering disciplines. In TABLE 6-1 Market for Civil Engineers and Electrical Engineers Earning Bachelor's Degrees, 1977-1983 (1) Number of Job Offers civil Electrical Year Engineering Engineeringa 1977 2,178 6,106 1979 4,424 10,742 1981 4,416 10,768 1983 892 8,285 Note: As reported to the College Placement Council. alncluding computer science.
170 addition, the starting salaries of bachelor's-degree civil engineers had fallen below the 1974 level in real dollars, unlike those of electrical, aeronautical, industrial, and mechanical engineers, which had risen (Table 6-2) All these salary trends suggest that the market for civil engineers has been soft for a decade and that there has been a more-than-ample supply of civil engineers in the last 2 years. The market may be different for some civil engineering specialties, such as structural engi- neering, but no data are available for making this examination. Only a small percentage of major industrial employers of engineers reported to the National Science Foundation that there have been insufficient qualified applicants to fill vacant civil engineering positions. The percent- age of employers reporting such difficulties dropped from 12 percent in 1981 to 3 percent in 1984 (Table 6-3). The corresponding percentages were substantially higher in many other fields, suggesting that the supply of qual- ified civil engineers was greater, compared with the demand, than was the case in many other fields. The current salary structure in civil engineering may change in future years if the excess supply of highway profes- sionals evaporates. TABLE 6-2 Average Salary Offers to Engineers Earning Bachelor's Degrees, 1974-1984 (1) Starting Salary (1984$) by Type of Engineering Elec- Aero- Indus- Mechan- Year Civil tricala nautical trial ical 1974 2,064 2,105 2,052 2,090 2,137 1983 1,976 2,249 2,118 2,164 2,215 1984 1,897 2,213 2,153 2,102 2,190 Note: As reported to the College Placement Council. alncluding computer science.
171 TABLE 6-3 Private Firms Reporting Difficulties in Obtaining Qualified Applicants Percentage Reporting Insuff i- cient Qualified Applicants by Type of Engineering Elec- Corn- Petro- Year Civil tronic puter leum 1981 12 58 51 65 1982 4 32 21 19 1983 5 7 6 7 1984 3 12 15 4 Source: National Science Foundation. OUTLOOK FOR COLLEGE ENROLLMENTS Since 1960 the most important demographic trend affecting college enrollments has been the dynamics of the baby boom. Starting around the mid-1960s, the large group born immediately after World War II began entering college, and for about lOyears, college enrollments rose rapidly. A further stimulus to the growth in college students was the rise in the number of women and minorities entering higher education. From 1960 through 1975 total college enrollment of those in the 18-to-24 age bracket rose from 2.2 million to 6.9million. Female enrollments climbed from 0.8 million to 2.8 million and black enrollments increased from 134,000 to 665,000. Meanwhile the U.S. population was growing from 179.3 million to 214.9 million (2). After 1975 the 18-to-24 age group both in and out of college stabilized at around 30 million and remained at that level from 1979 through 1982. At the same time, the high school population has been declining, portending a drop in college enrollments in the last half of the 1980s (2) Since 1960 the total number of bachelor's and first professional engineering degrees has fluctuated, but the
172 long-term overall trend in all academic fields (including engineering) was one of growth until the late 1970s when the curve leveled off (3) (Figure 6-1). Various economic forces and government actions spurred this growth. For example, the federal government increased student finan- cial aid after the Russians launched Sputnik; the space program created a large additional demand for engineers; and rapid growth in the computer and microelectronics industry greatly increased the demand for engineers. From 1970 to 1980 total engineering derees increased from 42,966 to 58,742 and, according to the the Engineer- ing Manpower Commission, reached 76,931 by 1984 (4,5). Starting around 1987, declining college enrollments will cause the number of engineering degrees to decline. The number of bachelor's engineering degrees will decline from 76,931 in 1984 to 71,372 in 1989 (4), and master's degrees are likely to remain steady or increase slightly from the 1984 level of 21,226. 1,000 800 o 600 Cl) 0 400 100 0 r I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1950 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 YEAR FIGURE 6-1 Bachelor's and first professional degrees in all fields and in all types of engineering, 1950-1984 (3,5,6).
173 SHARE OF ENGINEERS ENTERING CIVIL ENGINEERING Bachelor's degrees awarded in civil engineering increased from 6,526 in 1971 to 10,678 in 1981 and then declined to 9,877 in 1984. During this same period, civil engi- neering master's degrees increased from 2,425 to 3,324 (Table 6-4). In relative terms the growth in bachelor's and master's degrees awarded to women in civil engineer- ing was dramatic, an increase of about 20-fold, but this increase still represents only about 1,500 individuals. The fraction of women recipients of bachelor's degrees is still only about 13.1 percent of all students earning bachelor's degrees in this field in 1984 (7). The percentage of women receiving civil engineering bach- elor's degrees is less than that receiving engineering degrees, which in turn is far below the fraction of women earning bachelor's or first professional degrees in busi- ness (39 percent), law (51 percent), and veterinary science (46 percent) (Table 6-5). The number of blacks receiving bachelor's degrees in civil engineering has also greatly increased, but their 2 percent share of all civil engineering bachelor's degrees in 1984 (197 degrees earned) indicates that they are likewise severely underrepresented. In 1984 blacks earned 2,022 bachelor's degrees in all types of engineer- ing, or 2.6 percent of the total (9). The growth in civil engineering degrees granted through 1981 masked a strong downward trend in the relative popu- larity of this field, which has been made clear by the decline in bachelor's degrees since 1981. For almost a decade, an increasingly smaller share of engineering graduates has selected civil engineering as a specialty. The share of degrees awarded to civil engineers dropped from about 20.3 percent in 1976 to 15.7 percent in 1982 and continued to fall to 12.8 percent in 1984 (Figure 6-2). Similarly, the share of all master's degrees awarded to civil engineers showed a parallel decline until 1980 but then rose from 1981 through 1983 and dipped in 1984. Some of the upturn in the percentage of master's degrees granted in civil engineering may have occurred as students deferred entering a slack labor mar- ket and tried to improve their long-term earning poten- tial by seeking an advanced degree. Enrollment data on the number of students in civil engineering reveal some interesting trends that will also affect the number of future degrees granted (10). First, in the mid-1970s most students who selected civil engineering as a specialty made the choice in their
ThBLE 6-4 Number of Civil, Construction, and Transportation Engineering Degrees ('?) Year Bachelor's TOtal Degreesa Men women Master's Degrees Total- -Men women Doctorates Total Men women 1983-1984 9,877 8,582 1,295 3,324 3,005 319 402 381 21 1982-1983 10,484 9,169 1,315 3,317 3,037 280 390 372 18 1981-1982 10,524 9,333 1,191 2,995 2,725 270 329 315 14 1980-1981 10,678 9,557 1,121 2,891 2,684 207 325 316 9 1979-1980 10,326 9,349 977 2,683 2,476 197 270 264 6 1978-1979 9,809 8,865 944 2,646 2,503 143 253 249 4 1977-1978 9,135 8,450 685 2,685 2,553 132 277 271 6 1976-1977 8,227 7,799 429 2,964 2,835 129 309 303 6 1975-1976 7,923 7,657 248 2,999 2,900 99 370 361 9 1974-1975 7,651 7,509 142 2,769 2,695 74 356 347 9 1973-1974 8,017 7,889 127 2,652 2,603 44 368 364 4 1972-1973 7,390 7,318 72 2,627 2,589 38 397 388 k 9 1971-1972 6,803 6,741 62 2,487 2,449 38 415 413 2 1970-1971 6,526 6,474 52 2,425 2,397 28 446 443 3 aFour or 5-year programs.
aundergraduate. 25 20 I- w 0 15 cc 0 10 5 TABLE 6-5 Women in the Professional Fields, 1984 (8) First-Year Bachelor's and First Profession Enrollment (%) Professional Degrees (%) Business manager 437a 39â¢3 Architect 284a 29.8 Engineer 15.8 13.2 Lawyer 38.4 50.8 Physician 31.6 26.7 Dentist 24.4 20.6 Optometrist 26.7 22.0 Osteopath 25.4 19.8 Podiatrist 20.7 10.5 Veterinarian 48.6 46.4 Pharmacist 53.9 49.4 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 YEAR FIGURE 6-2 Civil engineering graduates as a percent- age of all engineering graduates (4,5,7).
176 freshman or sophomore year, even though many schools do not allow students to choose an engineering subfield at the outset of their undergraduate work. In the mid-1970s students were undoubtedly responding to the previous growth in civil engineering employment opportunities and expectations of future opportunities. By the 1980s the demand for civil engineers had declined relative to the demand for other types of engi- neers, particularly electronics engineers, and fewer students elected civil engineering early in their college years. In addition, although many university engineering programs became more specialized, in some programs students were encouraged to avoid specialization until later in their academic program. It is also possible that increasing numbers of students received general engineering education in 2-year colleges and then specialized when they switched to a 4-year college or university program. Junior-year enrollment has exceeded previous years' sophmore enrollment since 1979. Enrollment data strongly suggest that since 1980 an increasing share of graduates has selected civil engi- neering at the last moment--in the fourth year of under- graduate work. Each of the numbers (1, 2, 3, or 4) along the curves in Figure 6-3 represents the size of each graduating class of civil engineers as it progresses through its 4-year curriculum. For example, the class of 1978, identified at the left in Figure 6-3, had only about 8,000 members during fall 1975, the freshman year (1). This number increased to about 10,000 in 1976, the sophomore year (2), and to more than 12,000 by fall 1978 (4), when the class reached its senior year. By 1978, however, there was virtually no increase in the number of civil engineers between the freshman and sopho- more years, as is apparent from the flat leftmost por- tions of the curves for the classes of 1981 through 1985. Indeed, the number of civil engineering enrollments remains relatively static until the senior year, when a substantial number of engineering students selected that field. By the time the class of 1983 went to college, the number of students enrolled in civil engineering in their junior year was only around 1,000 more than the number enrolled in civil engineering as freshmen. The only sizable increase occurred in the final year, when nearly 4,000 students enrolled in civil engineering. Fall senior-year enrollments in civil engineering have been tapering off since 1980, and the trend in first- year enrollments portends a significant decline in total
177 14,000 13,000 12,000 LU 11.000 10.000 U.. 0 9.000 U) cc LU 8,000 7,000 '.5 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 YEAR FIGURE 6-3 Trend in civil engineering enrollments (undergraduates) (11). Note: 1, 2, 3, and 4 repre- sent first-, second-, third-, and fourth-year civil engineering undergraduate enrollments for the class due to graduate in the spring of the circled year. civil engineering enrollments, even though recently students appear to be deferring the decision to major in civil engineering until late in their undergraduate career. Because of changing demographics, the first-year enrollment in all types of engineering dropped in fall 1983 for the first time in a decade. To some extent, this shift in the dynamics of civil engineering enrollments within the 4-year curriculum may be due to the inability of some students to complete engineering degrees in other fields because of over- crowded courses or to compete against the better students who selected fields of study in computer science, genetic engineering, robotics, or other fields that receive extensive publicity and attract many of the best students. Those students choosing to remain within a general engineering curriculum instead of specializing may account for part of the change in enrollment patterns and so may the increasing number of students taking their early general engineering courses in 2-year colleges.
178 The tendency toward late selection of civil engineering as a major suggests that civil engineering may be a second choice for some students. To the extent that this is true, the civil engineering share could be eroded still further as popular competing courses become less crowded because of falling enrollments. Nevertheless, it is assumed here that the share of engineers enrolled in civil engineering fields continues to taper off according to the historic pattern, and no faster, as shown earlier in Figure 6-2. U.S. CITIZENS A large proportion of civil engineering graduates are foreign citizens who are legally unable to accept jobs in the United States on graduation. Eight percent of bachelor's-degree recipients and 26 percent of master's- degree recipients were foreign nationals on temporary visas in 1979 (12). By 1984 the proportion was 14.7 per- cent bachelor's degrees and 32 percent master's degrees (5). Thus about 1,500 civil engineering gradu- ates out of the national total of about 13,500 must return to their native country and are not eligible to work in the United States on graduation. Many of these graduates do eventually reenter the U.S. labor market, however. Immigration of civil engineers to the United States in 1984 has been estimated to be around 750 per year, equivalent to roughly one-half the number of foreign students graduating in civil engineering each year (13). The high proportion of foreign nationals has also been a source of concern to educational institutions as they plan to meet their professional needs. The low number of U.S. citizens choosing to earn doctorates has been identified as a key problem that educational institutions now face. Colleges and universities are concerned about whether they have adequate faculty resources to continue their programs during the coming decade (13). In 1984, foreign nationals earned.176 of the 402 Ph.D.'s awarded in civil engineering, or 43.8 percent (5). SHARE OF CIVIL ENGINEERS RECRUITED BY STATE HIGHWAY AGENCIES Although the majority of professionals within state high- way agencies are civil engineers, they make up only a
179 small part of the nation's trained civil engineers. To be counted among the civil engineers working at state departments of transportation, three conditions must be met. The engineer must be employed, must be practicing civil engineering, and must be employed by a state agency. First, between 7 and 9 percent of civil engi- neers do not enter the labor force, either because they go on to graduate school or are unable to find jobs or because of some other reason (11). Second, of those taking jobs, only about 80 percent will work in fields of civil engineering (14). Some shifting in and out of fields is expected because indi- viduals have unique opportunities, including jobs in family business, in firms experiencing local shortages, or in other fields. Nevertheless, market forces heavily influence these patterns. Fields experiencing shortages of qualified professionals, such as computer science, draw candidates from other areas. Fields with a surplus of trained professionals lose some of their graduates to jobs in areas where job openings are more abundant. A net loss of trained civil engineers to other fields thus probably partly reflects a slack market for civil engineers. Third, allowing that some civil engineering graduates do not accept positions at all or accept them in areas other than civil engineering, it is important to recog- nize that only 17 percent of the nation's civil engineers work in state highway agencies. Most of the 10,000 new civil engineers graduating each year accept jobs in the construction industry, consulting, local government, state government, and various other sectors (15). Assuming that this trend will continue, state highway agencies will need to recruit a corresponding percentage of new civil engineering graduates. Variations from this percentage will arise because of the large number of retirements expected within state departments of transportation, the more rapid growth of jobs for civil engineers in other organizations, and other factors. Nevertheless, to make trends in academic enrollments comparable with trends in state professional needs, a useful benchmark is to assume that states continue to attract 17 percent of all civil engineering graduates and then to assess the implications of the resulting figures. This exercise reveals that although there will be more candidates than jobs for the next 2 years, this situation will be reversed starting in 1986. Thus the job market for entry-level engineers for state highway agencies promises to tighten up, as discussed next.
180 FUTURE AGENCY NEEDS COMPARED WITH FUTURE SUPPLY OF GRADUATES Based on the preceding discussion, the following assump- tions appear to offer a reasonable basis for projecting the future supply of graduating civil engineers available to state departments of transportation: The number of graduates in all fields of engineering will decline from 76,931 in 1984 to 71,372 in 1989 because of the declining college-age population, as forecast by the Scientific Manpower Commission (4); The share of these graduates entering civil engi- neering will continue to decline by about five percentage points per year (American Society of Civil Engineers, unpublished data); About 8 percent of bachelor's-degree recipients in civil engineering and about 26 percent of master's- degree recepients will be foreign nationals who must leave the United States on graduation (12); Between 750 and 800 foreign nationals with degrees in civil engineering will immigrate to the United States each year (13); Between 7 and 9 percent of civil engineering gradu- ates will not enter the labor force (12); About 20 percent of graduating civil engineers will be employed in fields other than civil engineering (14); and About 17 percent of all civil engineers entering the labor force will be hired by state departments of transportation. Each of these factors is uncertain and subject to fluc- tuation, but before a discussion of some of the adjust- ments that might occur, and indeed probably will occur, it is instructive to examine the implications of the foregoing trends if they continue unchanged. Together, these assumptions imply that state departments of trans- portation sought about 1,450 new entry-level civil engi- neers in 1984 and that the states' pro-rata share of civil engineering graduates numbered about 1,630 in 1984 (Table 6-6). In 1985, state requirements will increase slightly to about 1,470 entry-level engineers, and the state share of national graduates available to accept jobs will continue to be somewhat larger. In 1986 through 1989, however, the number of engineers projected to be needed by the states is greater than the
TABLE 6-6 Supply of New Civil Engineering Graduates and Other New Entrants to State Highway Organizations and Comparison with Requirements Supply Requirements - Total Total Number Number Addition Supplied of Civil Net Growth to Supply to State Engineers (Allowing for Attrition Future Labor Market Conditionm in United Highway Employed Productivity (Retirements Change in Change in Surplus or Year States Agencies by States Improvements) and Deaths) Total Supply Demand Shortage 1984 9,440 1,630 29,969 529 916 1,450 1,630 1,450 +180 1985 8,990 1,550 30,508 539 933 1,470 1,550 1,470 +80 1986 8,500 1,460 31,057 549 949 1,500 1,460 1,500 -40 1987 8,000 1,380 31,616 559 966 1,530 1,380 1,530 -150 1988 7,590 1,310 32,185 569 984 1,550 1,310 1,550 -240 1989 7,210 1,240 32,764 579 1,002 1,580 1,240 1,580 -340
182 historical pro-rata share of engineering graduates. If the trends assumed earlier do not change, the states could find that they are unable to hire sufficient numbers of new graduates. This does not suggest that a shortage is likely, however. Part of the reason for this is that these calculations are necessarily approximations and the errors in the estimates may exceed the precision of the conclusions. Instead, this suggests that some of the trends will shift in response to state needs. For example, the following adjustments may occur: Agencies may be able to draw on the large pool of trained civil engineers who did not obtain jobs in civil engineering during the recent years of oversupply. The share of graduating civil engineers attracted by state highway agencies could increase above the historic, pro-rata share. As turnover in state agencies creates new openings and enhances the advancement potential for entering employees, more new employees may be attracted. As long as other prospective employers of civil engineers are not experiencing shortages, state agencies could probably succeed in bidding for a larger share of new graduates. However, using assumptions similar to those given earlier--especially the declining fraction of engineering students selecting civil engineering--it appears that the market for civil engineers of all sorts will be much tighter by the end of the decade (Figure 6-4). The accuracy of any such forecast is too low to permit much confidence in forecasts for individual years. Even so, the ability of the states to attract a dispro- portionate share of new civil engineering graduates would probably be short lived. The decline in the share of engineering students attracted to civil engineering could abate or halt as job opportunities improve. The share could even increase. This adjustment would probably take several years. Some time would elapse before students recognized better job opportunities and made curriculum choices based on new expectations. The lagged response of students' curriculum choices to future job opportunities might be shorter if the states took special steps now to increase student awareness of future potential. For example,
3.000 U) 2,750 cc 2,500 UJ UJ >. 2.250 â _J o o. 2.000 1.750 1,500 1,250 1.000 w 750 cc UJ 500 Go 250 - ----- 2 ci 2 -250 LU -500 UJ 183 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 YEAR NET NATIONAL REQUIREMENTS FOR CIVIL ENGINEERS NET REQUIREMENTS OF STATE HIGHWAY AGENCIES FOR CIVIL ENGINEERS FIGURE 6-4 The net requirements for the nation's civil engineers and for civil engineers entering state transportation organizations, 1984-1989. expanded recruitment efforts, greater distribution of material on summer jobs, and cooperative working arrangements for students could help stimulate increased student interest in civil engineering. Similarly, there may be ways to cooperate with professional societies to enhance dissemination of job information. The portion of trained civil engineers accepting jobs in other fields will probably decrease as job opportunities in civil engineering increase. As the labor market adjusts to improved job opportuni- ties within civil engineering, the new equilibrium that emerges will probably be characterized by a smaller outflow of trained civil engineers to these fields. Business schools are now graduating close to 2,000 students each year who have earned transportation
184 and public utility degrees (Table 6-7). Although most of these business students enter the private sector, they represent an additional source of skills on which state agencies can draw. As the labor market for civil engineers tightens, states may find it not only necessary but desirable to draw increasingly on graduates of transportation- related programs such as business, operations research, geography, and economics. Such graduates have learned skills particularly applicable to planning and investment analysis. With the continu- ing shift toward rehabilitating, maintaining, and optimizing the use of existing facilities, these skills will in many instances be as useful as tradi- tional civil engineering skills. Although the fraction of foreign nationals on tempo- rary visas in 1984 was higher than assumed here, it is likely that there has been a partly compensating increase in the number of foreign nationals immi- grating to the United States. Although there are drawbacks to the employment of foreign nationals, such as language difficulties, large numbers will continue to be educated in the United States and they could help meet this country's needs. Because of the likelihood of adjustments such as these, the projections in Table 6-6 are not interpretable as evidence of a pending shortage. Instead, they indicate that the surplus of civil engineers, which has been characteristic of recent years, is ending. A recent National Science Foundation (NSF) study of science and engineering needs for the defense and civilian economy concluded that there would be sufficient civil engineers to meet the nation's growth in requirements through 1987. But the study noted that economic efficiency and labor market performance are not necessarily maximized when supply and demand are in balance. Unless requirements are met with "experienced and appropriately trained" personnel, the quality of the work force will diminish (13). In a report of the National Research Council's Commit- tee on Education and Utilization of the Engineer, it was observed that civil engineers have been in oversupply because of the impact of the recent recession on the construction industry and a reduced demand for environ- mentally related work. The report then warned that
TABLE 6-7 Number of Transportation and Public Utility Degrees (7) Year Bachelor's Degreesa Total Men Women Master's Total Degrees Men Women Doctorates Total Men Women 1981-1982 1,816 1,431 385 129 116 13 2 1 1 1980-1981 1,538 1,275 263 120 ill 9 3 3 - 1979-1980 1,322 1,067 255 142 121 21 4 4 - 1978-1979 1,151 940 211 134 130 4 3 2 1 1977-1978 1,084 932 152 158 151 7 1 1 - 1976-1977 1,124 979 145 125 115 10 6 5 1 1975-1976 1,057 958 99 108 103 5 3 3 - 1974-1975 .812 747 65 117 116 1 2 2 - 1973-1974 618 588 30 109 109 - 2 2 - 1972-1973 567 548 19 159 157 2 9 8 1 1971-1972 644 641 8 66 66 - 6 6 - 1970-1971 662 656 6 63 63 - 3 3 - aFour or 5 year programs.
186 neither shortage nor surplus conditions are static (11) A joint study of the U.S. Department of Education and NSF prepared in 1980 indicated that there would be an adequate supply of most types of engineers, including civil engineers, in 1990, provided that there was not a sharp increase in the defense budget (16). Pending changes will enhance the attractiveness of job opportunities in civil engineering in future years. By anticipating a somewhat tighter job market in the coming years, managers of state highway agencies can begin to take steps to advertise those opportunities and strengthen their recruitment methods now. It is desir- able to make these opportunities known not only to college students but also to top high school students. This will not merely improve their ability to compete in the future labor market. To the extent that it makes more students aware of future opportunities in civil engineering and related fields, it will also help to create a flow of entry-level graduates who are aware of future needs without disruptive interruptions in the availability of qualified candidates. CONCLUSIONS In the next decade an unusual number of retirements among senior professionals will stimulate a chain of promotions and reassignments in state highway organizations. Ultimately, new openings will occur at the entry level for graduates from college and university civil engineer- ing programs. The nation graduates about 13,500 civil engineers a year (bachelor's and master's degrees). State departments of transportation, on average, hire just under 1,500 of these graduates. The remainder accept other employment, continue their education, leave the United States (about 1,500 of these graduates are foreign nationals), or are unable to find jobs. In recent years, the share of engineering students entering the civil engineering field has been falling sharply and there has been a downturn in civil engineer- ing enrollments. The number of graduates has begun to reflect this decline despite the increase in the college- age population that occurred as the baby-boom generation passed through college. In the decade ahead, college graduates in civil engineering will decline further as enrollments continue to drop.
187 Active recruitment of women and minorities for civil engineering education is desirable, not just at the college level but among top high school students as well. Both women and minorities remain substantially under- represented among civil engineering graduates in compar- ison to their shares of the United States' population. Currently there appear to be sufficient civil engineers to meet state needs as reflected by Decline in job and salary offers to new students earning civil engineering degrees, Small adjustments over time in salaries of state highway engineers relative to those of other kinds of engineers with comparable responsibility, and Few employers reporting lack of qualified applicants for civil engineering job vacancies. Nevertheless, if the civil engineering share of gradu- ates continues its downward trend, state departments of transportation will need more than their historical share of graduates starting in 1987. Similar projections indicate a tighter market for civil engineers in general during the late 1980s. State highway agencies are not likely to experience a shortage of civil engineers despite these trends. Numerous adjustments are likely to occur to mitigate the falling numbers of civil engineers graduating in the future. Agencies could tap the large pool of trained civil engineers who were unable to find jobs in civil engineering during the recent years of oversupply. States may increase the number of civil engineering grad- uates they employ above their historical pro rata share of 17 percent. The fraction of students majoring in civil engineering will increase as students become increasingly aware of improved future job opportunities or as financial and other rewards in state highway orga- nizations increase relative to such incentives in other types of employment. The outflow of civil engineers to other fields, which is currently at least 20 percent of all civil engineering graduates, could slow or reverse. Finally, states could draw on more of the 2,000 graduates of business schools who receive training in transporta- tion and public utility programs as well as on the surplus trained in earlier years. Although the analysis here focuses on the future supply of civil engineers to the states, similar conclusions
188 apply to the use of civil engineers by other sectors such as local units of government and even transit agencies. These other sectors are not currently experi- encing shortages of civil engineers but will also face a tighter labor market in the next decade. REFERENCES Salaries of Scientists, Enqineers and Technicians. Scientific Manpower Commission, Washington, D.C., biennial series, 1975-1983. Statistical Abstract of the United States, 104th Edition. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, 1983. Science and Engineering Degrees: 1950-80, A Source Book. NSF 82-307. National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C., 1982. Supply and Demand for Scientists and Engineers. Scientific Manpower Commission, Washington, D.C., Jan. 1982. Engineering and Technology Degrees. Engineering Manpower Commission, American Association of Engineering Societies, New York, annual series. Condition of Education, 1985 ed. National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education, 1985. Earned Degrees Conferred, 1948-1980. National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education, annual series (unpublished 1978-1982). Professional Women and Minorities. Scientific Manpower Commission, Washington, D.C., 1984. Women and Minorities in Science and Engineering. National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C., Jan. 1982. Engineering Education. October issues, 1976-1984. Committee on Education and Utilization of the Engineer, National Research Council. Engineering Education and Practice in the U.S.: Foundations of Our Techno-Economic Future, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., in press. R.C. Dauffenbach and J. Fiorito. Projections of Supply of Scientists and Engineers to Meet Defense and Non-Defense Requirements, 1981-87. National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C., April 1983.
189 Projected Response of the Science, Engineerinq and Technical Labor Market to Defense and Nondefense Needs: 1982-87. NSF 84-304. National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C., 1984. J. Fiorito. The School to Work Transition of College Graduates. Industrial Labor Relations Review, Oct. 1981. Science and Engineering Personnel: A National Overview. NSF-82-318. National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C., 1982. Science and Engineering Education for the 1980's and Beyond. National Science Foundation and U.S. Department of Education, Oct. 1980.
Appendix A Brief Review of Previous Research and Data Sources No systematic assessment of transportation professional needs in the United States has been done in 30 years. Nevertheless, the results reported here have drawn on procedures developed in earlier assessments as well as on numerous sources of current data. For readers who are interested in previous research and data sources, this appendix provides a brief review of these materials. PREVIOUS ANALYSES OF TRANSPORTATION PROFESSIONALS Although outdated, one assessment of professional needs that closely parallels the objectives of the current study was conducted by Campbell and Schureman in 1954 (1). It examined engineering requirements in state highway agencies in anticipation of the nation's undertaking a massive highway construction project such as the Interstate program. Their assessment was based on a questionnaire requesting the numbers of different kinds of engineers and consultants that states would require if their highway program were increased by 50 percent and 100 percent. They concluded that as long as the total highway program expanded gradually, engi- neering requirements would not become critical for 4 or 5 years and that they need not become critical at all if adequate preparation were made. Snowden performed a similar review of local highway engineering staff requirements in California in 1956 (2). He too relied on a survey and concluded that although there were some conspicuous technical professional staff problems at the local level, most cities and counties were able to carry out their construction programs with- out interruptions. 190
191 Both these assessments examined only engineering requirements and not the supply of engineers or the supply and demand for other kinds of professionals. Now a generation out of date, they offer little insight into the current situation. They do, however, demonstrate the value of surveys and they also help identify other sources of professional skills that can be transferred to highway activities if needed. A more recent (1975) review by the Scientific Manpower Commission, Supply/Demand Imbalances of Engineers for Transportation and Other National Projects, gives some useful insight into the current dimensions of the national pool of engineers and scientists in all occupa- tions as a source of transportation professionals (3). Skilled Manpower Requirements for the Canadian Trans- portation Industry (1972) (4) covers both the supply and demand for Canadian transportation engineers and is distinctive for the conclusions drawn and recommendations made regarding professional needs. It demonstrates that variations in surplus and shortage for skilled transpor- tation professionals are cyclic and related to a number of socioeconomic and technological factors. To aid the Canadian transport industry in producing and maintaining an adequate supply of skilled professionals, it is recom- mended that employers develop practices that better reflect long-term needs rather than short-term accommoda- tions of shortage or surplus. The Canadian government could help facilitate this by, among other things, developing national policies to achieve orderly growth rates in construction expenditures. Canadian universi- ties are urged to recognize shortage and surplus extremes in skilled manpower as a basis for planning production of graduates. PREVIOUS ANALYSES OF BROAD CATEGORIES OF PROFESSIONAL SKILLS Some previous assessments of needs of various general categories of professionals are instructive for the way in which they analyze and define shortages and surpluses. Many of these trace from the work of Blank and Stigler, who wrote The Demand and Supply of Scientific Personnel in 1957 (5). They found that there was either no short- age or a surplus of engineers from 1929 through 1950 using the definition "a shortage exists when the number of workers available increases less rapidly than the
192 number demanded in the recent past." This work proved controversial because it was published the same year that the Russians launched Sputnik and many observers of the labor market believed that shortages of engineers were emerging. Arrow and Capron in a 1959 paper entitled "Dynamic Shortages and Price Rises: The Engineer- Scientist Case" responded to Blank and Stigler by providing an alternative definition of shortages, characterized as vacancies resulting from salaries that are temporarily too low to clear the market (6). Hansen, in still another paper, "The 'Shortage' of Engineers," disputed some of Blank and Stigler's conclusions, particularly for the 1950-1954 period (7). in 1962 the Gillard panel of the President's Science Advisory Committee concluded: "Impending shortages of talented, highly trained scientists and engineers threaten the successful fulfillment of vital national commitments" (8). Around the same time, the Bureau of Labor Statistics prepared two reports for the National Science Foundation (NSF). The first, The Long Range Demand for Scientific and Technical Personnel, found a high correlation between total employment by industry and employment of scientists and engineers and used ratios of the two for forecasting demand (9). In the other Bureau of Labor Statistics study performed for NSF, Scientists, Engineers, and Technicians in the 19601 s: Requirements and Supply, a similar methodology was used but replacement needs and transfers were also accounted for (10). Hugh Folk's The Shortage of Scientists and Engineers, published in 1970, gives a comprehensive treatment of alternative definitions of shortages, the functioning of the engineering and scientific labor market, the supply and demand for engineers and scientists, the economic returns to occupations, and the outlook for future employment of engineers (II). A rigorous treatment of similar issues is found in Freeman's 1971 study, The Market for College Trained Manpower (12). This work develops models that reflect the lag in the supply of new entrants into professional ranks as a result of the lengthy educational process. It also demonstrates the importance of discounted expected future lifetime earnings in influencing occupa- tional choice. Cain et al. amplify earlier works of this sort and set out a framework for forecasting supply and demand of specialized workers in Labor Market Analysis of Engineers and Technical Workers (13).
193 Stewman provides a lengthy review of job projection models with an emphasis on Markov models in two articles in the Journal of Mathematical Sociology (14,15). A 1982 report of the Scientific Manpower Commission, Supply and Demand for Scientists and Engineers, synthe- sizes a number of studies on past, present, and projected sources of scientists and engineers (16). It reviews how projections for skilled manpower are made and used and provides an overview of supply and demand for scien- tists and engineers in the last decade. It summarizes various forecasts for new graduates in a number of scien- tific and engineering fields and assesses the numbers of immigrants, occupation transfers, and professionals in the labor force due to skill upgrading. It also analyses demand for new graduates, experienced scientists, and engineers and projects likely imbalances. It concludes that with the exception of computer scientists, supply has generally caught up with and in some cases exceeds job opportunities. For engineers, however, the picture is not absolutely clear. NSF has conducted many other assessments of the supply and demand for scientists, engineers, and technicians, some of which contain information regarding civil engineers. Although none examines transportation civil engineers per se or other kinds of professionals in transportation, they are useful for examining the status of professional workers at the national level. One such review by NSF and the U.S. Department of Education, Science and Engineering Education for the 1980's and Beyond, concluded that there would be an adequate supply of civil engineers through 1990 (17). Another recent report, which contains many labor market indicators for engineers and scientists, is Science and Engineering Personnel: A National Overview (18). Still another is Women and Minorities in Science and Engineering (19). Similarly, every other year the Bureau of Labor Statis- tics publishes projections of future employment opportu- nities in Occupational Projections and Training Data (20), which are often updated in the Monthly Labor Review. Also, the Engineering Manpower Commission of the American Association of Engineering Societies routinely prepares short-run engineering demand estimates (21). During the course of this study, the National Coopera- tive Highway Research Program of the Transportation Research Board was engaged in preparing a report entitled Human Resource Management and Forecasting: Planning to
194 Meet Future Needs (Project 20-5). This synthesis will provide a review of the best human resource management practices in state departments of transportation. Valuable civil engineering enrollment and degree data are available from the Engineering Manpower Commission (21,22). Enrollment data have been reprinted in the October issues of Engineering Education. Every other year the Scientific Manpower Commission also publishes a compendium of salary data on scientists and engineers, Salaries of Scientists, Engineers, and Technicians (23). This is the single most comprehensive source on salary data and includes published salary surveys of the College Placement Council, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the National Society of Profession- al Engineers. The American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials has sporadically published salary and benefit surveys, the most recent being Salary Survey of State Highway and Transportation Departments, 1983-1984 (24), and Fringe Benefits for Highway and Transportation Department Employees (1984) (25). An important and up-to-date salary survey regarding trans- portation professionals entitled 1983 North American Salary and Benefits Survey was published by the Institute of Transportation Engineers in 1983 (26). Salary data for planners appears in an American Planning Association publication, Planners' Salaries and Employment Trends, 1983 (27). Some information on short-run forecasting of staff requirements of highway professionals in the field will be given in the NCHRP report Human Resource Management and Forecasting: Planning to Meet Future Needs, cited earlier, and in the Federal Highway Administration's Construction Engineering Manpower Management: System Design Manual (28). ANALYSES OF URBAN TRANSIT PROFESSIONAL NEEDS Literature on professional needs for mass transit profes- sionals is even more scarce and dated. Most research has addressed requirements for bus or rail operators and mechanics from the productivity or labor relations point of view, for instance, reviewing the impact of various management actions on labor productivity or comparing labor requirements among similar transit systems. Studies of transit professional employees have generally been qualitative rather than quantitative, addressing
195 training needs, organizational development, transit finance, and planning requirements. National Urban Mass Transportation Statistics, containing Section 15 data, has the most recent and complete information on the numbers of professional, executive, and supervisory workers in transit (29). The American Public Transit Association's Transit Fact Book also provides some back- ground data (30). Two studies that include discussion of skill requirements are targeted at establishing tran- sit services in small urban or rural communities. Mass Transit Management: A Handbook for Small Cities (31) and Analyzing Transit Options for Small Urban Communities by James (32) provide guidance on numbers of profession- al staff required by systems of various sizes, but draw no conclusions about the supply of skilled professionals or the national demand. A 1973 project by Mundy and Spychalski, based on exten- sive surveys of personnel in 41 North American transit systems, developed an inventory and current profile of management, technical, and supervisory personnel in the industry and assessed manpower demand and supply . The authors projected a need for at least 3,000 technical and management positions (or 15 percent of the manage- ment work force) to be filled annually to maintain the then current professional work force. They noted a number of obstacles to this goal, including the indus- try's financial plight, union and civil service restric- tions, and the industry's tradition of promoting from within individuals with little formal training and education. The study called for a change in patterns of recruitment for college-educated individuals, especially in light of the disproportionately old age of the manage- ment work force (33). Two additional studies are currently under way that will update and supplement the work of Mundy and Spychaiski. One is a study of transit managers' training and career practices, in progress at Portland State University; the other is a study of transportation program development for future manpower needs at Florida A&M University. Also since at least 1978, Fielding and others at the University of California at Irvine have been using organizational theory and detailed analysis to evaluate the influence of such factors as organizational size, span of control, and manager's length of employment on the performance of transit properties. Two studies, The Effect of Organization Size and Structure on Transit
196 Performance and Employee Satisfaction and Organization Theory and the Structure and Performance of Transit Agencies (34,35), document their findings to date. REGIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS Published information on professionals at the regional and local levels is nearly nonexistent. Schmitt et al. in An Examination of Methods for Coordination of Trans- portation Planning Activities take a detailed look at metropolitan planning organizations (MPO5) in the 100 largest metropolitan areas of the country. This study focuses most closely on the coordination problems of MPOs with limited implementation authority working in a complicated multijurisdictional environment. It gives some information on the average number of professionals working in MPO5 (35). The Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations in 1974 released a comprehensive study on regional government entitled Toward More Balanced Transportation: New Intergovernmental Proposals (37). Other information on local government appears in the annual volumes entitled County Fact Book (38) and Municipal Fact Book (39) and in data of the Bureau of the Census. Much use- ful census data appears in the Statistical Abstract of the United States (40). Finally, the National Associa- tion of County Engineers published a series of guidebooks for county engineers, the most useful for this study being Organization-Personnel-Purchasing (41). REFERENCES M.E. Campbell and L.R. Schureman. Engineering-Personnel Needs for Highway Departments. Bull. 106. HRB, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 1955. W.H. Snowden. Local Highway Engineering Manpower: Appraisal and Action. Bull. 134. HRB, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 1956. Supply/Demand Imbalances of Engineers for Transportation and Other National Projects. Scientific Manpower Commission, Washington, D.C., 1975. R.C.G. Haas. Skilled Manpower Requirements for the Canadian Transportation Industry. Department of
197 Civil Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Dec. 1972 D. Blank and G. Stigler. The Demand and Supply of Scientific Personnel. National Bureau of Economic Research, Washington, D.C., 1957. K.J. Arrow and W.M. Capron. Dynamic Shortages and Price Rises: The Engineer-Scientist Case. Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 1959. W.L. Hansen. The "Shortage" of Engineers. Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 43, 1961, pp. 251-256. The President's Science Advisory Committee. Meeting Manpower Needs in Science and Technology, Report Number One: Graduate Training in Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences. U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1962. The Long Range Demand for Scientific and Technical Personnel. NSF 61-65. National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C., 1961. Scientists, Engineers, and Technicians in the 1960's: Requirements and Supply. NSF 63-34. National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C., 1963. H. Folk. The Shortage of Scientists and Engineers. Heath Lexington Books, Lexington, Mass., 1970. R.B. Freeman. The Market for College-Trained Manpower: A Study in the Economics of Career Choice. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass., 1971. G.G. Cain, R.B. Freeman, and W.C. Hansen. Labor Market Analysis of Engineers and Technical Workers. Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, Md., 1973. S. Stewman. Markov Models of Occupational Mobility: Theoretical Development and Empirical Support, Part 1: Careers. Journal of Mathematical Sociology, Vol. 4, 1976. S. Stewman. Markov Models of Occupational Mobility: Theoretical Development and Empirical Support, Part 2: Continuously Operative Job Systems. Journal of Mathenatical Sociology, Vol. 4, 1976. Supply and Demand for Scientists and Engineers. Scientific Manpower Commission, Washington, D.C., Jan. 1982.
198 Science and Enqineerinq Education for the 1980's and Beyond. National Science Foundation and U.S. Department of Education, Oct. 1980. Science and Engineering Personnel: A National Overview. NSF 82-318. National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C., Aug. 1982. Women and Minorities in Science and Engineering. National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C., Jan. 1982. Occupational Projections and Training Data. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, Dec. 1982. Engineering and Technology Degrees. Engineering Manpower Commission, American Association of Engineering Societies, New York, annual series, 1967-1984. Engineering and Technology Enrollment. Engineering Manpower Commission, American Association of Engineering Societies, New York, annual series, 1967-1983. Salaries of Scientists, Engineers, and Technicians. Scientific Manpower Commission, Washington, D.C., biennial. Salary Survey of State Highway and Transportation Departments, 1983-1984. AASHTO, Washington, D.C., 1984. Fringe Benefits for Highway and Transportation Department Employees. AASHTO, Washington, D.C., 1984. 1983 North American Salary and Benefits Survey. ITE, Washington, D.C., 1983. Planners' Salaries and Employment Trends, 1983. American Planning Association, Chicago, 1984. Construction Engineering Manpower Management: System Design Manual. FHWA, U.S. Department of Transportation, 1978. National Urban Mass Transportation Statistics: Second Annual Report, Section 15 Reporting System. UMTA, U.S Department of Transportation, June 1982. Transit Fact Book. APTA, Washington, D.C., 1981. Mass Transit Management: A Handbook for Small Cities, Parts I-IV. UMTA, U.S. Department of Transportation, Sept. 1980. D.H. James. Analyzing Transit Options for Small Urban Communities. UMTA, U.S. Department of Transportation, Jan. 1978.
199 R.A. Mundy and J.C. Spychalski. Managerial Resources and Personnel Practices in Urban Mass Transportation. UMTA, U.S. Department of Transportation, Nov. 1973. G.J. Fielding, L.W. Porter, M.J. Spendolini, W.D. Todor, and D.R. Dalton. The Effect of Organization Size and Structure on Transit Performance and Employee Satisfaction. Institute of Transportation Studies, Graduate School of Administration, University of California, Irvine, Dec. 1978. G.J. Fielding, L.W. Porter, D.R. Dalton, M.J. Spendolini, and W.D. Todor. Organization Theory and the Structure and Performance of Transit Agencies. Presented at the 59th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., Jan. 23, 1980. R. Schmitt, J. Weitman, and E. Beimborn. An Examination of Methods for Coordination of Transportation Planning Activities. Center for Urban Transportation Studies, University of Milwaukee, Milwaukee, Wis., April 1982. Toward More Balanced Transportation: New Intergovernmental Proposals. Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations, Washington, D.C., 1974. County Fact Book. National Association of Counties and International City Management Association, Washington, D.C., 1984. Municipal Fact Book. International City Management Association, Washington, D.C., 1984. Statistical Abstract of the United States, 104th ed. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, 1983. Organization-Personnel-Purchasing. Revised edition, Action Guide Series. National Association of County Engineers, Ottumwa, Iowa, 1972.
Appendix B Survey of State fransportation and Highway Departments The American Association of State Highway and Transporta- tion Officials (AASHTO) administered a survey in behalf of the Transportation Research Board to state departments of transportation and highway agencies as well as to the District of Columbia and the Federal Highway Administra- tion (FHWA). Forty-nine states, the District of Columbia, and FHWA responded, a 98 percent response rate. Respondents did not complete all portions of the survey, however. Responses were most complete on questions regarding hiring difficulties, skill requirements, and past actions taken by agencies to minimize staffing problems and improve productivity (generally 80 to 98 percent) . Responses were least complete in regard to historical data on the number of engineers (62 percent for the states and the District) and the future estimates of retirement eligibility, attrition, and hiring plans (only 40 percent) For a number of states, the data reported in this appendix (specifically in Tables 8-1, B-4, and B-6) do not agree with those reported earlier in Chapter 3 (specifically in Tables 3-3 through 3-5). These differ- ences reflect differences in how professionals were classified in each case, as well as some differences attributable to the exact dates in 1984 and 1985 on which the data were collected. The data in this appendix were gathered in the original survey that PASHTO mailed to the states in May 1984 and through a supplemental survey in August 1984. They were used to develop the national estimates of the states' future requirements for engi- neers reported in Chapters 2 and 6. Estimates of the total numbers of engineers and expected future retirement, attrition, and hiring plans in Tables 3-3 through 3-5 and 3-12 consist of updated 200
201 information that the states provided in February 1985, after the study committee held its final meeting. Thus, the data in Chapter 3 are generally more recent and accurate. In sum, interpretation of the responses poses some difficulties because states vary in their definitions of engineers (see Chapter 1) and also may have different understandings of the meaning. of a particular question or word. Nonetheless there is enough uniformity in prac- tice in state highway engineering agencies to place . good deal of confidence in the survey responses and the inferences drawn from them. This appendix is divided into three parts: Selected summary tables and figures derived from the survey responses, i tabulation of the survey responses for 49 states and the District of Columbia (FHWA's response to the survey questionnaire is described in Chapter 6), and Responses of each state regarding actions recently taken to improve productivity or minimize staffing problems. .
202 PART 1 Selected Summary Tables and Figures Derived from Survey Responses of State Transportation and Highway Departments TABLE B-i Total Number of Engineers by State, 1984 State Total Number of Engineers Alabama 731 Alaska 444 Arizona 291 Arkansas 189 California 4,537 Colorado 955 Connecticut 717 Delaware 82 Florida 1,411 Georgia 964 Hawaii 39 Idaho 100 Illinois 1,198 Indiana 478 Iowa 188 Kansas 290 Kentucky 348 Louisiana 384 Maine 150 Maryland 320 Massachusetts 1,286 Michigan 465 Minnesota 386 MissisSippi 215 Missouri 853 Montana 116 Nebraska 160 Nevada 401 New Hampshire 248 New Jersey 1,041 New Mexico 174 New York 2,439 North Carolina 885 North Dakota 89 Ohio 590 Oklahoma 515 Oregon 1,005 Pennsylvania 672 Rhode Island 55 South Carolina 351 South Dakota 160 Tennessee 283 Texas 700 Utah 99 Vermont 94 Virginia 549 Washington 1,1.76 West Virginia 167 Wisconsin 500 W'oming 274 District of Columbia 205 TOTAL 29,969 Source: AASHTO survey of state transportation and highway departments for the Transportation Professional Needs Study, 1984. Note: States differ somewhat in their definition of rofessiona1 engineers, which should be taken into account in making comparisons.
203 TABLE B-2 Number of Planners and Computer Specialists in State Highway Agencies Computer State Planners Specialists Alabama 24 14 Arkansas 5 12 California 416 277 Connecticut 99 32 Delaware 19 7 Florida 9 60 Hawaii 1 0 Idaho 14 5 Illinois 100 40 Indiana 14 45 Iowa 36 16 Kansas 2 12 Kentucky 7 0 Louisiana . 5 24 Maine 11 10 Maryland 17 0 Massachusetts 0 13 Michigan 103 59 Minnesota 39 14 Mississippi 8 5 Missouri 16 19 Montana 4 3 Nebraska 17 18 Nevada 23 19 New Hampshire 3 13 New Jersey 78 80 New Mexico 7 36 New York 225 61 North Carolina 13 46 North Dakota 3 6 Ohio 30 21 Oklahoma 12 50 Oregon 12 23 Rhode Island 11 10 South Carolina 11 . 1 South Dakota 10 12 Tennessee 37 11 Texas 39 114 Utah 17 19 Vermont 10 6 Virginia 33 32 Washington .55 70 Wisconsin 42 104 West Virginia 21 12 Wyoming 8 0 Source: AASHTO survey of state transportation and highway departments for the Transportation Professional Needs Study, 1984, Supplement. Note: 46 states responding. States differ somewhat in their definitions of planners and computer specialists, which should be taken into account in making comparisons.
TABLE B-3 Total Number of Employees of All Types in State Departments of Transportation and Highway Agencies, 1975-1984 1975 1976 1977 J,78 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 Alabama 6,036 5,524 5,702 6,024 5,192 4,092 3,743 3,677 3,843 4,051 Arkansas 4,001 3,961 4,037 4,102 4,236 4,244 3,938 3,764 3,749 3,718 California 16,722 14,239 14,126 15,112 15,365 16,250 15,786 15,250 15,961 16,708 Colorado 3,171 3,293 3,304 3,300 3,288 3,330 3,138 3,038 3,114 3,162 Connecticut 5,310 4,876 5,021 5,048 4,839 4,676 4,437 4,270 4,299 4,481 Delaware 1,387 1,380 1,316 1,266 1,236 1,272 1,267 1,265 1,250 1,228 F,lorida 9,670 9,406 9,610 9,248 8,961 8,632 8,225 8,452 8,489 8,557 Hawaii ; 873 863 921 945 1,066 1,100 1,005 1,039 1,033 1,057 Idaho 1,504 1,474 1,461 1,459 1,425 1,426 1,386 1,461 1,610 1,620 Illinois 7,574 7,919 7,767 7,648 7,457 7,624 7,611 7,297 7,097 7,147 Indiana 4,981. 4,967 5,017 5,087 5,191 5,135 4,648 4,711 4,982 5,139 Iowa 4,079 4,282 4,288 4,305 4,282 4,260 3,984 3,885 3,771 3,858 Kansas 3,891 3,839 3,823 3,766 3,827 3,820 3,773 3,618 3,170 3,167 Kentucky 9,665 9,038 8,841 8,856 9,265 7,446 6,778 6,554 6,300 6,442 Louisiana 7,160 7,145 7,228 7,460 7,544 7,479 7,741 7,747 7,416 7,148 Maine 2,906 2,948 2,661 2,733 . 2,752 2,454 2,398 2,422 2,478 2,352 Massachusetts 4,495 4,259 4,081 4,007 3,955 3,961 3,629 3,281 2,884 3,032 Michigan 4,281 4,154 4,252 4,246 4,202 4,267 4,143 3,931 3,774 3,697 Minnesota 4,640 4,864 4,805 4,780 4,621 4,627 4,490 4,298 4,289 4,283 Mississippi 3,553 3,288 2,956 2,876 2,928 2,973 2,868 2,902 2,991 2,977 Missouri 6,700 6,600 6,580 6,570 6,620 6,388 6,067 5,753 5,733 5,857 Montana 2,108 2,110 2,114 2,138 2,100 2,120 1,905 1,772 1,816 1,882 Nebraska 2,477 2,421 2,418 2,462 2,402 2,355 2,281 2,183 2,182 2,223 New Mexico 2,973 3,021 2,721 2,760 2,735 2,488 2,765 2,715 2,743 2,628 New York 14,111 13,186 12,225 12,417 12,055 12,057 11,867 11,908 11,962 11,541 North Carolina 13,765 13,930 13,920 13,995 14,015 13,723 13,312 12,675 12,568 12,741 North Dakota 1,151 1,178 1,171 1,199 1,201 1,209 1,164 1,064 965 981 Oklahoma 3,090 2,936 2,970 2,918 2,935 2,952 3,075 3,164 3,070 2,999 'Oregon 4,153 3,683 3,328 3,615 3,670 3,767 3,638 3,620 3,678 3,600 Rhode Island 1,514 1,364 1,394 1,434 1,444 1,419 1,354 1,306 1,192 1,342 South Carolina 6,610 6,133 6,268 6,508 6,694 6,542 6,252 6,204 6,394 6,402 South Dakota 1,664 1,586 1,630 1,547 1,550 1,517 1,461 1,425 1,421 1,203 Tennessee 7,016 6,650 6,651 6,675 6,673 6,078 5,164 5,430 5,303 5,299 Texas 17,668 14,693 14,800 14,523 14,419 14,173 13,921 13,969 14,256 14,252 Vermont 1,072 . 1,053 1,231 1,245 1,237 1,250 1,218 1,212 1,219 1,240 Virginia 11,200 10,660 11,195 11,623 11,115 11,620 10,956 10,269 9,913 9,824 Washington 4,105 3,934 3,958 4,052 4,270 4,242 4,096 3,824 3,755 4,017 Wisconsin 3,759 3,707 3,705 3,679 3,652 3,633 3,620 3,594 3,522 3,585 Wyoming 1,553 1,551 1,616 1,696 1,796 1,825 - 1,877 1,903 1,906 1,949 Source: AASHTO survey of state transportation and highway departments for the Transportation Professional Needs Study, 1984. Note: 39 states provided complete historical data for 1975-1984.
TABLE B-4 Total Engineers by State, 1975-1984 State 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 Alabama 737 713 761 826 803 737 694 721 720 731 Arkansas 173 174 180 184 192 192 196 192 188 189 California 5,065 3,098 3,204 3,479 3,816 4,272 3,974 3,716 3,797 4,537 Colorado 976 987 993 995 986 998 973 881 934 955 Connecticut 810 761 741 730 715 712 668 654 691 717 Delaware 90 86 90 87 85 81 81 82 85 82 Hawaii 42 42 42 42 42 42 40 40 40 39 Illinois 1,264 1,226 1,182 1,147 1,114 1,143 1,138 1,122 1,170 1,198 Indiana 451 469 465 407 424 423 412 426 431 478 Iowa 247 233 217 215 213 208 196 168 187 188 Kansas 310 325 340 360 352 330 325 315 300 290 Kentucky 493 499 496 493 450 445 379 355 345 348 Maine 163 156 149 152 159 156 148 145 146 150 Minnesota 394 406 417 397 406 405 382 380 379 386 Mississippi 235 228 227 211 197 204 207 203 212 215 Missouri 931 917 915 913 907 886 860 784 791 853 Montana 137 137 137 138 136 137 125 115 118 116 Ui Nebraska 139 135 138 136 133 142 141 142 155 160 New Mexico 125 129 127 118 119 119 109 137 137 174 North Carolina 713 722 714 737 751 759 749 755 695 885 North Dakota 95 99 96 99 96 101 94 89 90 89 Oregon 1,179 1,068 829 881 958 1,022 945 955 994 1,005 Rhode Island 114 64 63 63 63 48 46 36 37 55 South Carolina 304 299 297 295 302 333 317 301 329 351 Tennessee 318 321 298 299 279 279 288 292 275 283 Texas 918 822 818 790 776 758 731 718 701 700 Vermont 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 94 94 94 Virginia 636 620 639 661 675 685 662 593 555 549 Washington 701 666 664 677 1,131 1,093 1,169 1,092 1,048 1,176 Wyoming 189 185 206 215 243 247 242 248 255 274 Source: AASHTO survey of state transportation and highway departments for the Transportation Professional Needs Study, 1984. Note: 30 states provided complete historical data for 1975-1984. States differ somewhat in how they define a professional engineer and one should bear this in mind when making comparisons.
TABLE B-5 Breakdown of Engineers by Functional Responsibilities in 36 States Traffic Operations Road Design Bridges Construction Materials Maintenance Other State Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Alabama 38 5.4 116 16.4 53 7.5 233 33.0 76 10.7 179 25.3 12 1.7 Arkansas 6 3.2 19 10.1 23 12.2 62 32.8 15 7.9 6 3.2 58 30.7 California 556 9.7 2,176 38.0 508 8.9 1,451 25.3 449 7.8 230 4.0 355 6.2 Connecticut 88 17.2 118 23.0 33 6.4 252 49.1 11 2.1 11 2.1 0 0.0 Delaware 8 9.8 19 23.2 8 9.8 19 23.2 3 3.7 5 6.1 20 24.4 Florida 85 6.3 316 23.6 44 3.3 278 20.7 109 8.1 345 25.7 164 12.2 Hawaii 11 7.3 38 25.2 10 6.6 55 36.4 15 9.9 7 4.6 15 9.9 Idaho 9 9.8 8 8.7 13 14.1 17 18.5 12 13.0 10 10.9 23 25.0 Indiana 46 8.6 25 4.7 43 8.1 263 49.3 29 5.4 52 9.8 75 14.1 Kansas 9 4.2 24 11.1 32 14.8 72 33.3 23 10.6 28 13.0 28 13.0 Kentucky 30 8.7 45 13.0 23 6.6 93 26.9 24 6.9 54 15.6 77 22.3 Maine 2 1.8 15 13.2 15 13.2 36 31.6 12 10.5 20 17.5 14 12.3 Massachusetts 33 3.9 63 7.5 50 6.0 360 42.9 40 4.8 199 23.7 95 11.3 Minnesota 27 7.2 36 9.5 38 10.1 157 41.6 33 8.8 12 3.2 74 19.6 Mississippi 16 7.3 18 8.3 27 12.4 17 7.8 15 6.9 8 3.7 117 53.7 Missouri 31 3.5 250 28.4 54 6.1 369 41.9 100 11.4 50 5.7 27 3.1 Nebraska 12 7.5 34 21.2 25 15.6 52 32.5 12 7.5 2 1.2 23 14.4 Nevada 7 2.5 80 28.9 14 5.1 163 58.8 7 2.5 6 2.2 0 0.0 New Hampshire 4 1.6 64 25.8 31 12.5 73 29.4 10 4.0 32 12.9 34 13.7 New Jersey 76 7.2 330 31.2 119 11.3 258 24.4 95 9.0 54 5.1 125 11.8 New Mexico 4 3.7 18 16.7 19 17.6 24 22.2 8 7.4 25 23.1 10 9.3 North Carolina 58 8.1 121 17.0 109 15.3 134 18.8 22 3.1 142 19.9 126 17.7 North Dakota 5 5.7 13 14.8 11 12.5 27 30.7 6 6.8 2 2.3 24 27.3 Ohio 45 7.2 175 28.2 57 9.2 224 36.1 24 3.9 42 6.8 54 8.7 Oklahoma 6 5.9 16 15.8 18 17.8 33 32.7 5 5.0 11 10.9 12 11.9 Oregon 32 5.3 98 16.1 47 7.7 268 44.1 35 5.8 43 7.1 85 14.0 South Carolina 13 3.6 23 6.3 31 8.5 189 52.1 23 6.3 68 18.7 16 4.4 Tennessee 13 4.6 89 31.4 73 25.8 65 23.0 21 7.4 22 7.8 0 0.0 Texas 61 6.0 315 31.0 87 8.6 296 29.2 38 3.7 56 5.5 162 16.0 Utah 7 7.1 27 27.3 16 16.2 39 39.4 0 0.0 10 10.1 0 0.0 Vermont 2 2.4 11 13.3 19 22.9 27 32.5 5 6.0 12 14.5 7 8.4 Virginia 50 11.6 137 31.8 65 15.1 66 15.3 40 9.3 73 16.9 0 0.0 Washington 75 5.7 412 31.5 74 5.7 629 48.2 83 6.4 33 2.5 0 0.0 Wisconsin 31 6.0 156 30.4 21 4.1 169 32.9 29 5.7 48 9.4 59 11.5 West Virginia 9 5.4 14 8.4 36 23.4 37 22.2 9 5.4 23 13.8 36 21.6 Wyoming 6 5.4 20 17.9 14 12.5 45 40.2 3 2.7 8 7.1 16 14.3 Source: AASHTO survey of state transportation and highway departments for the Transportation Professional Needs Study, 1984, Supplement. Note: States differ somewhat in their definition of professional engineers and functional categories, which should be taken into account in making comparisons.
207 16 15 14 13 12 LU I- 10 (1)9 U- 08 LU 2 4 3 2 5 6-10 11-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 50 NUMBER OF ENGINEERS PER MILLION 1982 DOLLARS OF SPENDING ON PRELIMINARY ENGINEERING FIGURE B-i Ratios of engineers to total capital outlays (38 states reporting). Source: FHWA, Highway Statistics, 1982, and AASHTO survey of state transportation.and highway departments for the Transportation Professional Needs Study, 1984. Note: Capital outlays are composed of costs for right-of-way acquisition, preliminary construc- tion engineering, and highway construction and exclude maintenance and administration. Also states differ somewhat in their definition of engineers, which should be taken into account in making comparisons.
17 16 15 14 13 12 LU - 10 U- 9 0 uJ 7 6 4 3 2 208 < 1 1.1.99 2-2.99 3-3.99 4-4.99 5-5.99 6.6.99 NUMBER OF ENGINEERS PER MILLION 1982 DOLLARS OF CAPITAL OUTLAYS FIGURE B-2 Ratios of engineers to expenditures on preliminary engineering (38 states reporting) Source: FHWA, Highway Statistics, 1982, and AASHTO survey of state transportation and highway departments for the Transportation Professional Needs Study, 1984. Note: States differ somewhat in their definition of engineers, which should be taken into account in making comparisons.
209 PART 2 TABULATION OF SURVEY OF STATE HIGHWAY AGENCIES TRANSPORTATION PROFESSIONAL NEEDS STUDY (HIGHWAY PROGRAM) 50 RESPONSES 1. Has your agency hired professional staff in the last 12 months? Yes 48 No 2 IF YES, have you had difficulty filling any profes- sional positions? Management-level engineers Yes 12 Other professional engineers Yes 21 Engineer technicians Yes 8 Other (listed by respondent) : 'Yes 14 Data processing: Engineers in training: Bridge engineer: Controller: Public information officer: Traffic control specialist: Environmental specialist: Attorney: Real estate appraiser: No 33 Blank 5 No 27 Blank 2 No 40 Blank 2 No 24 Blank 12 9 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2. What problems, if any, have you had in recruiting, hiring, retaining, or utilizing professional staff in the past 12 months? Some common problems are low wages; hiring lids; lack of qualified graduates; registration and certification requirements; rigid work rules or territoriality; relocation expenses;
210 previous layoffs or attrition; changes in funding level or program mix. Please list the most important problems in order: Number of states Problems cited citing problem Low wages 24 Hiring freeze 20 Relocation expenses 14 Civil service constraints 12 Lack of qualified applicants 9 Other (listed by respondent--three or fewer responses) : 16 Union requirements Lack of internal candidates Competition from private industry Territoriality Funding shortages Previous layoffs Attrition Program changes Job specifications High turnover Mobility requirements Residency requirements Overqualified applicants 3. A number of agencies have taken measures intended to minimize staffing problems and improve productivity. A list of such actions follows. Please check one or both of the two columns on the left if in your agency the action: i) occurred in the last 2 years (ii) occurred more than 2 years ago Next, in the third column on the left, rate the relative effect of each past action on improving productivity by using the following scale: O = we have not taken this action S = small effect M = medium effect L = large effect
211 c. Then please place a check mark in the last column if you are likely to take the action in the next 2 years. Note: Tabulations of survey results show only the number of states reporting 0, S, M, or L since this is suffi- cient to indicate whether or not action occurred in the past.
212 Past Actions No Action Effect on Productiv- or No Effect ity of Staff Future Actions (0 or blank) Small Medium Large (Next 2 Years) Salaries, Wages, and Hiring Lids Raise or remove hiring lid on number of staff 30 6 7 7 13 Raise wage scale 16 16 13 5 37 Raise compensation in parts of State where cost of living is higher to facilitate relocation or reassignment of staff 43 5 1 1 1 Retirement Raise or eliminate the mandatorl retirement age 25 24 1 0 1 Increase the minimum age and/or length of service to be eligible for retirement 43 5 1 1 2 Decrease the minimum retirement age and/or length of service 31 12 5 2 4 Technology Introduce or substantially increase computer-aided design 14 7 17 12 32 Introduce microcomputers throughout the agency 18 10 16 6 30 Substantially increase use of other new kinds of technology 31 2 9 8 11 Consultants and Contractors Use consultants for preliminary engineering 5 10 16 19 27 Use consultants or contractors for surveying 16 14 10 10 20 Use consultants for inspection 28 12 7 3 18 Use contractors for inspection 47 2 1 0 5 Team Building and Organizational Development Introduce quality circles or team-building exercises 37 4 6 3 12
213 Past Actions No Action Effect on Productiv- or No Effect ity of Staff Future Actions (0 or blank) Small Medium Large (Next 2 Years) Reorganize agency 13 8 17 12 8 Flexible Staffing and Quality of Work Force Relax registration requirements for engineers 44 6 0 0 0 Increase the number of engineering positions requiring registration 38 7 4 1 7 Use part-time or retired professionals 26 17 6 1 8 Participate in inter- governmental employee loan programs 41 8 1 0 6 Use job rotation and flexible ways of assigning professionals to tasks 29 13 6 2 21 Technicians Require certification of technicians 42 1 5 2 7 Require technicians to be qualified in several skill areas 30 3 11 6 13 Use technicians for construction inspection 4 0 21 20 21 Use technicians for project management 19 4 lS 12 14 Give technicians lead work responsibility for highway design under supervision of engineers 18 1 19 12 14 Training and Education Through an explicit policy, add professional staff development to the respon- sibilities of managers 32 4 11 3 18 Introduce or expand in-house management training courses 7 14 20 9 23 Send professionals to management training courses outside the agency 3 18 24 5 24
214 Past Actions No Action Effect on Productiv- or No Effect ity of Staff Future Actions (0 or blank) Small Medium Large )Next 2 Years) Give nonmanagerial staff managerial-type respon- sibilities as training for higher positions 23 10 15 2 19 Introduce or expand technical training and retraining programs for professionals 11 8 25 6 26 Pay part or all of the costs for professionals to receive supplementary formal education 11 22 12 5 21 Provide student internships, fellowships, scholarships, or summer employment 2 17 20 11 26 Career Advancement and Promotions Establish explicit alternative career paths for professionals, one based on supervisory and management status and the other on technical skills and knowledge 36 8 4 2 12 Increase promotion from within the agency 15 3 14 18 16 Increase hiring from outside the agency 31 7 12 0 12 Analytical Procedures Obtain demonstrable increases in productivity through new or better economic analysis or opera- tions research techniques 30 6 13 1 8 Obtain productivity gains based on feedback from quantitative performance indicators measured against explicit objectives 26 8 10 6 17 Introduce a construction or maintenance management system 8 8 17 17 13 Other Stage projects to reduce labor requirements 31 4 11 4 8 Increase Overtime work 17 10 13 10 11
215 Past Actions - No Action Effect on Productiv- or No Effect ity of Staff Future Actions (0 or blank) Small Medium Large (Next 2 Years) Hire professionals from foreign countries 33 13 3 1 6 Increase hiring of women and minorities 3 28 12 7 22 Increase reimbursement for intrastate moving expenses of employees and their families 34 11 5 0 8 Other 49 0 1 0 2
216 4. a. What changes do you expect in the relative levels of major construction, rehabilitation, maintenance, bridge, and traffic operations work in your highway program over the next 5 years? Indicate: (M) more, (L) less, or (S) same More Less Same Major construction Rehabilitation Maintenance Bridges and structures Traffic operations 12 17 21 44 0 6 34 1 15 35 1 14 23 0 27 b. Do you expect to require more, less, or the same levels of the following skills over the next 5 years? Assume that your agency will operate under the same total budget and staff constraints as today and ONLY THE PROGRAM MIX MAY CHANGE. More Less Same Middle management 6 7 37 Supervisory 7 5 38 Highway design 19 2 29 Structural engineering 22 1 27 Construction management 17 5 28 Construction inspection 22 2 26 Maintenance management 21 0 29 Rehabilitation and recycling 33 0 17 Traffic handling and operations 20 0 30 Safety 16 0 34 Technician skills (all types) 20 11 19 Drafting 14 12 18 Surveying 9 8 27 Inspection 21 2 22 Project management 13 2 29 Environmental impact analysis 7 11 31 Computer programming/ systems analysis 43 0 7 Legal 13 4 33 Accounting 3 1 46 Financial, business, and economic analysis 6 2 42
217 Planning 15 4 30 Transportation system management (TSM) 17 2 31 Other 11 0 0 5. a. If spending on your highway program increased 25 percent in real dollars, which three skills or types of staff listed above would you increase the most? Ranked first by states Highway design (24) Construction inspection (9) Construction management (9) Ranked second by states Structural engineering (9) Construction inspection (8) Construction management (5) Ranked third by states Construction inspection (11) Maintenance management (5) Technician skills (5) b. If your highway program decreased 25 percent in real dollars, which three skills or types of staff would you reduce the most? Ranked first by states Construction inspection (14) Highway design (8) Middle management (5) Technician skills (5) Ranked second by states Construction management (11) Construction inspection (9) Highway design (6)
218 Ranked third by states Highway design (11) Construction inspection (6) Technician skills (4) Planning (4) 6. Please have your human resources director or personnel specialist fill out the "Attachment," which requests information as to: Total staff levels and number of engineers over the past 10 years; Whether or not wage freezes, RIF's, or layoffs have occurred over the past 10 years; Your agency's retirement policies; Age distribution of professional staff; Anticipated attrition rates; and Future hiring plans.I 7. If you wish to comment on these or other related issues, please do so below. Thank you for your responses.
219 ATTACHMENT 1. Please provide the following information about your agency for the past 10 years: Total number of employees (column A), Total number of engineers (column B), Years in which a wage freeze occurred (column C), Years in which a reduction in force (RIF) or layoff occurred (column D). Year Aa Bb Cc DC 1984 187,389 18,539 11 1 1983 186,098 17,199 14 7 1982 186,852 17,041 9 11 1981 190,981 17,776 5 11 1980 198,426 18,509 2 7 1979 202,815 18,128 1 3 1978 203,324 17,378 0 1 1977 201,112 17,051 0 1 1976 202,115 17,259 2 9 1975 212,588 19,673 3 8 aData complete for 10 years for 39 states bData complete for 10 years for 31 states CData complete for 10 years for 41 states Are you anticipating any significant change in state retirement policies likely to affect the size of your professional staff: Yes 5 No 43 If yes, please attach a separate page explaining the changes, identifying when they become effective, and describing their impacts. Several states are now in the process of changing or have recently changed retirement policies. Please provide the following information reflecting your agency's retirement policies as of July 1, 1984:
220 What is the minimum age or combination of age and length of service when a person may retire? (There are various combinations of age and length of service which constitute the minimum retirement What is the age or combination of age and length of service when a person may retire with full benefits? (There are various combinations of age and length of service that determine when someone may retire with full benefits) Do you have a mandatory retirement age? Yes 24 No 24 If yes, what is it? 23 states said 70 1 state said 72 What is the average retirement age? Average Retirement Age Number of States 57 2 58 1 59 1 60 6 61 5 62 12 63 8 64 1 65 4 3. Please fill out the following table (Table B-6) reflecting your agency's retirement policies as of July 1, 1984:
TABLE B-6 Current Age Distribution and Future Retirement, Attrition, and Hiring Plans of State Highway Agencies Age of Current Staff (number by age group)a Future Staff (1985-1989) (% by category)b Retired Less Eligible Lost Type of than with Full Through To Be professional 26 26-35 36-45 46-55 56-60 61-65 66+ Total Eligible Benefits Attrition Hired Management-level engineers 1 184 1,116 1,559 704 199 19 3,782 61.0 26.7 13.5 13.5 Other professional engineers 732 3,167 4,627 5,190 2,165 879 94 16,854 40.6 16.8 18.4 21.3 Engineering technicians 1,691 6,629 8,647 6,474 2,052 857 126 26,476 26.8 14.3 13.1 16.9 Note: The ratio of engineers to technicians here is approximately 1.3. The ratio of approximately 1.4 reported elsewhere in the text was calculated for a number larger than 39 states that reported data on both the number of engineers and number of technicians but did not necessarily furnish age-distribution data. 5Complete for 39 states. bData complete for 19 states.
222 PART 3 - States' Assessment of Actions to Improve Productivity and Minimize Problems Meeting Professional Staff Needs -- Responses to Survey Question 3 -- TABLE B-7 States' Assessment of the Effect of Changes in Salary, Wage, and Hiring Policies on Improving Productivity or Meeting Professional Needs State A B C Alabama Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connect jCut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont i Virgnia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming District of Columbia Note: 0 = action not taken inpast, 1 = small effect, 2 = medium effect, 3 = large eftect, 9 = blank. A = raise or remove hiring lid, B = raise wage scales, C = raise cost-of-living compensation to facilitate relocat ion.
223 TABLE B-8 States' Assessment of the Effect of Changes in Retirement Policy on Improving Productivity or Meeting Professional Needs State Alabama Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illiis Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming District of Columbia Note: 0 = action not taken in past, 1 = small effect, 2 = medium effect, 3 = large effect,.9 = blank. A = raise or eliminate mandatory retirement age, B = increase minimum age or service for retirement eligibility, C = decrease minimum age or service.
224 TABLE B-9 States' Assessment of the Effect of Changes in Technology on Improving Productivity or Meeting Professional Needs State Alabama Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washinton West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming District of Columbia Note: 0 = action not taken in past, 1 = small effect, 2 = medium effect, 3 = large effect, 9 = blank. A = computer-aided design, B = microcomputers, C = other technology.
225 TABLE B-lU States' Assessment of Effect of Consultants and Contractors on Improving Productivity or Meeting Professional Needs State Alabama 1 1 0 Arizona 3 2 2 Arkansas 1 1 i California 1 0 1 Colorado 3 3 3 Connecticut 3 1 3 Delaware 3 1 1 Florida 3 2 2 Georgia 3 2 1 Hawaii 3 3 1 Idaho 2 0 0 Illinois 2 0 1 Indiana 2 0 0 Iowa 3 1 2 Kansas 3 1 9 Kentucky 2 2 2 Louisiana 3 3 9 Maine 2 2 0 Maryland 3 3 2 Massachusetts 3 3 9 Michigan 3 9 9 Minnesota 2 0 0 Mississippi 1 0 0 Missouri 0 0 0 Montana 1 1 0 Nebraska 1 1 9 Nevada 1 9 9 New Hampshire 2 0 0 New Jersey 2 2 9 New Mexico 2 2 1 New York 3 2 3 North Carolina 1 1 0 North Dakota 0 0 0 Ohio 3 3 0 Oklahoma 2 2 1 Oregon 1 0 1 Pennsylvania 2 1 2 Rhode Island 9 9 9 South Carolina 2 1 1 South Dakota 2 9 9 Tennessee 3 3 1 Texas 2 2 0 Utah 0 0 0 Vermont 3 3 0 Virginia 2 1 0 Washington 9 1 0 West Virginia 3 3 1 Wisconsin .3 3 2 Wyoming 1 1 0 District of Columbia 2 9 9 Note: 0 = action not taken in past, 1 = small effect, 2 = medium effect, 3 = large effect, 9 = blank. A = use consultants for preliminary surveying, B = use consultants or contractors for surveying, C = use consultants for inspection, D = use contractors for inspection.
226 TABLE B-li States' Assessment of the Effect of Team-Building and Organizational Development Efforts on Improving Productivity or Meeting Professional Needs State Alabama Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Geor9ia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washin9ton West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming District of Columbia Note: 0 = action not taken in past, 1 = small effect, 2 = medium effect, 3 = large effect, 9 = blank. A = quality circles or team-building exercises, B = reorganize agency.
227 TABLE B-12 States' Assessment of Effect of Actions Regarding Flexible Staffing and Quality of Work Force on Improving Productivity or Meeting Professional Needs State Alabama 0 0 1 Arizona 1 0 0 Arkansas 0 2 0 California 1 2 1 Colorado 0 0 3 Connecticut 0 0 0 Delaware 9 9 1 Florida 0 1 0 Geor9ia 0 0 0 C Hawaii 0 1 0 C Idaho 0 0 1 C Illinois 0 1 2 ] Indiana . 0 0 0 C Iowa 0 9 9 C Kansas . 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 0 2 - 0 C Louisiana 9 9 9 9 Maine 0 0 1 0 Maryland 1 0 1 0 Massachusetts 0 0 0 9 Michigan 0 2 2 0 Minnesota 0 0 2 1 Mississippi 0 0 1 0 Missouri 0 0 0 0 Montana . 0 0 0 0 Nebraska 9 9 9 9 Nevada 9 9 9 9 New Hampshire 0 0 0 0 NewJersey 1⢠9 9 1 NewMexj.co 0 1 0 0 NewYork 0 1 1 0 North Carolina 0 3 2 0 North Dakota 0 0 0 0 Ohio 0 0 1 0 Oklahoma 0 0 1 0 Oregon 1 1 1 1 Pennsylvania 0 0 0 0 Rhode Island 0 9 2 1 South Carolina 0 0 1 0 South Dakota 9 0 1 0 Tennessee 0 0 0 0 Texas 0 0 0 0 Utah 0 9 2 0 Vermont 0 0 0 0 Virginia 9 9 1 0 Washington 0 0 0 0 West Virginia 0 0 1 0 Wisconsin 0 0 0 0 W'oming 1 0 1 0 District of Columbia 9 1 1 2 Note: 0 = action not taken in past, 1= small effect, 2 = medium effect, 3 = large effect, 9 = blank. A = relax registration requirements, B = increase positions requiring registration, C= use part-time or retired professionals, D = intergovernmental employee loan programs, E = use job rotation and flexible.ways of assigning tasks.
228 TABLE B-13 States' Assessment of the Effect of Technicians on Improving Productivity or Meeting Professional Needs State Alabama 0 0 2 2 2 Arizona 0 9 2 2 2 Arkansas 0 0 2 1 2 California 0 1 1 0 0 Colorado 0 0 3 3 3 Connecticut 0 0 2 0 0 Delaware 9 9 1 1 2 Florida 0 0 3 0 2 Georgia 0 2 3 3 0 Hawaii 0 0 2 0 0 Idaho 0 2 2 2 2 Illinois 0 2 2 2 2 Indiana 0 3 3 3 2 Iowa 0 2 3 3 3 Kansas 0 0 9 9 9 Kentucky 0 0 3 3 0 Louisiana 9 9 2 2 2 Maine 0 0 3 2 2 Maryland 0 1 3 3 3 Massachusetts 0 0 1 0 0 Michigan 3 2 3 1 2 Minnesota 0 2 2 2 3 Mississippi 2 0 2 2 3 Missouri 0 0 2 0 0 Montana 0 0 9 9 9 Nebraska 9 9 9 9 9 Nevada 9 2 2 9 2 New Hampshire 0 9 2 0 9 New Jersey 9 9 2 9 2 New Mexico 2 2 2 3 3 New York 0 0 3 0 0 North Carolina 0 2 3 0 3 North Dakota 3 3 3 3 3 Ohio 0 0 3 3 3 Oklahoma 0 0 3 0 0 Oregon 0 0 1 0 0 Pennsylvania 2 2 2 1 2 Rhode Island 9 9 9 9 9 South Carolina 0 3 3 3 3 South Dakota 0 3 3 3 3 Tennessee 0 0 2 2 2 Texas 0 3 3 2 1 Utah 2 0 2 2 9 Vermont 0 0 2 2 2 Virginia 0 0 1 2 2 Washinton 0 2 3 0 0 West Virginia 2 0 2 3 3 Wisconsin 0 3 3 2 2 Wyoming 0 1 3 2 2 District of Columbia 1 9 2 9 9 Note: 0 = action not taken in past, 1 = small effect, 2 = medium effect, 3 = large effect, 9 = blank. A = re9uire certification, B = require technicians to be qualified in several skill areas, C = use technicians for construction inspection, D = use technicians for project management, E = use technicians for lead design work under supervision of engineers.
229 TABLE B-14 States' Assessment of the Effect of Training and Education Actions on Improving Productivity or Meeting Professional Needs State A B C D Alabama 0 1 1 1 Arizona 0 2 3 9 Arkansas 0 0 2 2 California 3 2 2 2 Colorado 2 2 2 3 Connecticut 0 1 1 1 Delaware 9 9 2 2 Florida 0 1 1 2 Georgia 0 3 2 2 Hawaii 0 2 2 2 Idaho 1 1 1 1 Illinois 2 2 1 2 Indiana 0 3 3 2 Iowa 9 1 1 2 Kansas 0 1 1 0 Kentucky 2 2 2 0 Louisiana 9 1 1 1 Maine 0 1 1 0 Maryland 1 2 2 2 Massachusetts 1 1 1 2 Michigan 2 3 2 2 Minnesota 2 2 2 2 Mississippi 0 2 2 0 Missouri 0 2 2 2 Montana 0 2 2 2 Nebraska 9 3 9 9 Nevada 9 9 1 1 New Hampshire 0 9 9 9 New Jersey 9 2 2 2 New Mexico 9 3 2 3 New York 0 0 1 0 North Carolina 2 2 2 3 North Dakota 0 3 1 2 Ohio 0 1 1 2 Oklahoma 0 0 2 2 Oregon 1 2 2 1 Pennsylvania 2 1 1 2 Rhode Island 9 9 9 9 South Carolina 0 2 2 2 South Dakota 9 1 1 9 Tennessee 2 2 2 2 Texas 2 2 2 2 Utah 0 2 3 2 Vermont 0 1 1 0 Virginia Washington 2 3 2 2 1 West Virginia 0 3 1 3 1 3 3 Wisconsin 2 3 2 2 Wyoming 0 2 2 1 District of Columbia 3 3 3 3 Note: 0 = action not taken in past, 1 = small effect, 2 = medium effect, 3 = large effect, 9 = blank. A = through explicit policy add professional staff development to manager responsibilities, B = in-house management training courses, C = external management training courses, 0 = technical training and retraining.
230 TABLE 8-14 continued State E F G Alabama 0 1 3 Arizona 2 1 2 Arkansas 2 0 2 California 2 1 1 Colorado 1 3 3 Connecticut 0 1 1 Delaware 9 1 1 Florida 0 0 1 Georgia 0 0 1 Hawaii 2 0 1 Idaho 1 1 1 Illinois 1 3 3 Indiana 2 2 3 Iowa 0 1 1 Kansas 0 1 0 Kentucky 3 1 3 Louisiana 1 1 2 Maine 0 2 2 Maryland 2 2 2 Massachusetts 1 2 1 Michigan 2 2 3 Minnesota 0 1 2 Mississippi 0 2 2 Missouri 2 0 2 Montana 0 0 1 Nebraska 9 3 9 Nevada 9 9 2 New Hampshire 9 9 2 New Jersey 9 1 1 New Mexico 1 2 2 New York 2 1 1 North Carolina 2 3 3 North Dakota 1 1 2 Ohio 0 1 2 Oklahoma 2 2 1 Oregon 1 2 1 Pennsylvania 0 1 2 Rhode Island 9 2 2 South Carolina 1 1 2 South Dakota 9 0 3 Tennessee 2 0 2 Texas 0 2 2 Utah. 2 3 3 Vermont 0 1 2 Virginia 1 1 1 Washington 2 2 3 West Virginia 0 0 1 Wisconsin 0 1 3 Wyoming 2 1 2 District of Columbia 3 1 1 Note: 0 = action not taken in past, 1 = small effect, 2 = medium effect, 3 = large effect, 9 = blank. E = give norimanagement staff management-type responsibilities as training for higher positions, F = pay cost of supplementary education, G = provide student internships, fellowships, and summer employment.
231 TABLE B-15 States' Assessment of the Effect of Actions Regarding Career Advancement and Promotions on Improving Productivity or Meeting Professional Needs State A B C Alabama 0 1 1 Arizona 0 0 2 Arkansas 0 3 2 California 2 3 2 Colorado 0 3 0 Connecticut 0 2 9 Delaware 1 9 9 Florida 1 2 0 Georgia 0 3 0 Hawaii 0 2 1 Idaho 0 0 0 Illinois 0 2 2 Indiana 1 3 0 Iowa 0 9 9 Kansas 1 1 Kentucky 0 3 0 Louisiana 1 9 9 Maine 0 0 0 Maryland 0 2 2 Massachusetts 0 0 1 Michigan 2 2 2 Minnesota 0 3 0 Mississippi 0 3 0 Missouri 0 2 2 Montana 0 0 0 Nebraska 9 3 9 Nevada 9 9 9 New Hampshire 0 0 0 New Jersey 9 9 2 New Mexico 3 3 2 New York 0 0 0 North Carolina 2 3 2 North Dakota 9 3 0 Ohio 0 0 0 Oklahoma 0 2 0 Oregon 0 2 1 Pennsylvania 1 0 0 Rhode Island 3 3 2 South Carolina 0 3 9 South Dakota 0 2 0 Tennessee 0 3 2 Texas 0 1 1 Utah 0 2 0 Vermont 0 2 0 Virginia 1 9 1 Washinton 0 2 0 West Virginia 1 2 0 Wisconsin 0 3 0 Wyoming 0 3 0 District of Columbia 2 3 1 Note: 0 = action not taken in past, 1 = small effect, 2 = medium effect, 3 = large effect, 9 = blank. A = establish dual career ladders (managerial and technical), B = increase hiring from outside, C = increase promotion in house.
232 TABLE B-16 States' Assessment of the Effect of Various Analytical Procedures on Improving Productivity or Meeting Professional Needs State A B C Alabama 0 0 3 Arizona 0 0 2 Arkansas 0 0 3 California 2 3 3 Colorado 9 9 3 Connecticut 0 1 2 Delaware 9 9 1 Florida 1 2 1 Georia 0 3 3 Hawaii 0 0 1 Idaho 2 1 2 Illinois 0 1 1 Indiana 3 3 3 Iowa 9 1 3 Kansas 1 1 3 Kentucky 2 2 2 Louisiana 9 9 2 Maine 9 1 2 Maryland 2 2 3 Massachusetts 0 0 1 Michigan 9 9 3 Minnesota 2 2 2 Mississippi 0 0 2 Missouri 2 0 1 Montana 2 9 1 Nebraska 9 9 9 Nevada 9 9 3 New Hampshire 0 0 0 New Jersey 2 2 9 New Mexico 9 2 2 New York 0 1 0 North Carolina 2 3 3 North Dakota 0 2 0 Ohio 1 0 1 Oklahoma 0 0 2 Oregon 0 0 3 Pennsylvania 0 2 2 Rhode Island 9 9 9 South Carolina 0 0 0 South Dakota 0 0 2 Tennessee 0 0 2 Texas 1 3 2 Utah 1 0 3 Vermont 0 0 2 Virginia 2 2 2 Washington 2 9 3 West Virginia 2 1 2 Wisconsin 2 3 0 Wyoming 0 0 3 District of Columbia 1 2 3 Note: 0 = action not taken in past, 1 = small effect, 2 = medium effect, 3 = large effect, 9 = blank. A = better economic analysis or operations research, B = performance indicators of explicit objectives, C = construction or maintenance management system.
233 TABLE B-17 States' Assessment of the Effect of Other Actions on Improving Productivity or Meeting Professional Needs State A B C D E Alabama 0 2 0 1 Arizona 0 3 2 2 Arkansas 2 2 0 1 California 3 1 2 2 Colorado 2 2 1 2 Connecticut 2 3 1 1 Delaware 9 0 0 1 Florida 2 2 1 1 Georgia 0 0 0 1 Hawaii 0 3 1 1 Idaho 1 1 0 1 Illinois 0 1 1 1 Indiana 0 3 0 1 Iowa 1 1 1 1 Kansas 1 0 0 1 Kentucky 0 3 0 1 Louisiana 9 9 9 9 Maine 0 0 0 2 Marylar)d 2 3 1 1 Massachusetts 1 2 1 2 Michigan 9 2 0 3 Minnesota 2 0 0 2 Mississippi 0 0 0 2 Missouri 0 3 0 1 Montana 0 0 0 0 Nebraska 9 9 9 2 Nevada 9 9 9 1 New Hampshire 0 0 1 1 New Jersey 9 9 1 1 New Mexico 3 2 1 3 New York 0 3 0 1 North Carolina 2 2 0 1 North Dakota 0 2 0 3 Ohio 0 2 0 1 Oklahoma 2 1 0 1 Oregon 0 1 0 2 Pennsylvania 0 2 1 1 Rhode Island 9 3 0 3 South Carolina 0 0 0 1 South Dakota 3 2 0 0 Tennessee 0 1 0 2 Texas 0 0 1 3 Utah 9 0 0 1 Vermont 0 2 0 1 Virginia 0 1 0 2 Washington 3 0 3 3 West Virginia 2 0 0 1 Wisconsin 2 1 0 2 Wyoming 0 3 0 1 District of Columbia 2 1 2 3 Note: 0 = action not taken in past, 1 = small effect, 2 = medium effect, 3 = large effect, 9 = blank. A = stage projects to reduce labor needs, B = increase overtime work, C = hire foreign nationals, D increase hiring of women and minorities, E = raise reimbursement for in-state employee moving expenses.
Appendix C Survey of Bus and Rail Transit Agencies The American Public Transit Association (APTA) mailed a survey to 350 member agencies. The survey solicited data on the numbers and types of professionals currently employed in transit agencies, positions for which profes- sional staff shortages were likely to occur, causes of hiring problems, and actions taken by agencies to increase staff productivity and assure that human resources are sufficient to meet program needs. Of the 350 surveys administered, 130 (or 37 percent) were returned. Some of these surveys were largely blank. A sample of 90 surveys, about 25 percent of the industry, contained most of the responses and it is this group of responses that was summarized in this analysis. Nearly all the surveys that were returned but not analyzed were rejected because they were incomplete. Most of these pertained to agencies with fewer than 100 buses. Respondents selected for analysis included 5 rail transit or commuter rail systems, 9 multimodal bus and rail systems, and 26 bus systems, 5 of which are planning or constructing rail transit. This appendix contains a summary of the survey responses. The overall sample rate varied by size; agencies with between 500 and 999 revenue vehicles were represented best and small systems (fewer than 50 revenue vehicles) were least well represented (Table C-i) . In terms of transit industry employees, the overall sample represents about 44 percent. By size group, the range includes a low of 16 percent for small systems and 91 percent in the group with 500-999 vehicles. The largest systems (more than 1,000 revenue vehicles) have an especially low representation rate because the nation's two largest agencies, the New York City Transit Authority and the Chicago Transit Authority, are not included. These 234
TABLE C-i Transit Survey Statistics Sample All Transit Employees Number of Sample Systemsa as Percentage Revenue Vehicles Number Employees Number Employees of Industry Greater than 1,000 6 35,955 14 112,428 32 500-999 11 19,903 13 21,901 91 250-499 13 13,634 22 16,544 82 100-249 23 6,170 39 11,931 52 50-99 12 1,436 62 8,231 17 Less than 50 21 1,078 182 6,880 16 Total 86 78,176 332 177,915 44 Note: Three commuter railroads and one transit system not yet in revenue operation not tallied here. aNational Urban Transportation Statistics: Second Annual Report. Section 15 Reporting System, UMTA, U.S. Department of Transportation, June 1982.
236 systems together employ 60,245 workers, about 35 percent of the industry. Excluding New York and Chicago, the large properties responding to the survey employ 69 per- cent of the remaining transit workers in that size group. Within the sample of 90 properties, the response rates for selected parts of the survey varied as well. This is particularly true for the questions on age distribu- tion and future hiring plans. Analysis of these ques- tions is based on a sample representing about 15 percent of all transit professionals. Care should be exercised in interpreting the data in view of the modest response rate. Inferences drawn from the survey data reflect uncertainty related to the sample size and the segmentation of data into groups that should be taken into account. The following is a tabulation of the survey of bus and rail transit properties.
237 TABULATION OF SURVEY OF TRANSIT AGENCIES (BUS AND RAIL) TRANSPORTATION PROFESSIONAL NEEDS STUDY 90 RESPONSES Has your agency hired professional staff in the last 2 years? Yes 82 No 7 Blank IF YES, Have you had difficulty filling any professional positions? Executive managers Yes 14 No 45 Both 4 Blank 27 Operations professionals Yes 19 No 53 Both 0 Blank 18 Maintenance professionals Yes 21 No 45 Both 1 Blank 23 Planning/marketing professionals Yes 14 No 56 Both 3 Blank 17 F inance/administra- tive professionals Yes 11 No 47 Both 1 Blank 31 Rail Design/construction Only engineers Yes 6 No 12 Both 0 Blank 1 Other engineers Yes 8 No 10 Both 0 Blank 1 OTHER (please list) Data processing (5) Yes - No - Claims Yes - No MBE/DBE etc. Yes - No For each of the following categories, have the majority of professional vacancies over the past 2 years been filled by promoting from within your agency or by hiring from outside? Check the correct column.
238 Executive managers Operations professionals Maintenance professionals Planning/marketing professionals F inance/administra- tive professionals Rail Design/construction Only engineers Other engineers OTHER (please list) FILLED HIRED FROM FROM BL1NK/ WITHIN OUTSIDE BOTH NA 22 35 3. 58 50 19 3 18 31 28 3 28 17. 47 1 25 19 30 5 36 3 10 3 3 3 10 1 5 3. Please check the problems, if any, you have had in recruiting, hiring, retaining, or utilizing professional staff in the past 2 years. 40 low salaries and benefits 5 civil service requirements 1 previous layoffs or attrition 41 lack of qualified applicants 8 program or funding changes 4 hiring ceilings 7 work locations 30 inadequate advancement opportunities 11 limited recruitment budget 4. A number of agencies have taken measures intended to avoid 4kill shortages and improve productivity. A list of such actions follows. Please check if. your agency has taken the action in the last 2 years. Next, rate the relative effect of each action on improving productivity by using the following scale: O = we have not taken this action S = small effect M = medium effect L = large effect NA = not applicable
239 Effect on Productivity of Staff Small Medium Large None* Salaries, Wages, and Staffing Levela Raise salary/wage scales 24 32 7 27 Introduce merit, bonus, or incentive pay systems 12 12 9 57 Increase authorized staffing levels 7 24 12 41 Retirement Raise or eliminate the mandatory retirement age 7 0 1 82 Increase the minimum age and/or length of service to be eligible for retirement 2 0 .1 87 Decrease the minimum age and/or length of service to be eligible for retirement 2 0 2 86 Technology Introduce or substantially increase use of automated management information systems (e.g., maintenance, human resources, or materials management systems) 15 25 20 30 Introduce or increase use of computer-aided design (rail only) 2 4 1 12 Introduce microcomputers throughout the agency 12 17 12 49 Substantially increase use of other new kinds of technology (name:________________________ 3 6 4 77 Labor Relations and Organizational Development Introduce labor-management committees, quality circles, or team building exercises 20 14 12 44 Reorganize agency 13 11 1.6 50 Change or redefine Board-Staff roles 3 3 4 80 Flexible Staffing and Quality of Work Force Use job rotation and flexible ways of assigning professionals to tasks 9 9 3 69 Change civil service employment requirements 0 1 2 87 Increase the number of positions requiring registration or certification 5 1 0 84 Use part-time or retired professionals 11 14 3 62 *No effect or action not taken.
240 Effect on Productivity of Staff Small Medium I.arge None5 Subititute paraprofessionals (e.g., technicians) for professionals 4 2 0 84 Participate in intergovernmental employee loan programs 3 0 0 87 Training and Education Through an explicit policy, add professional staff development to the responsibilities of managers 9 12 9 60 Introduce or expand in-house management training courses 13 26 9 42 Send professionals to management training courses outside the agency 17 36 23 13 Introduce or expand technical training and retraining programs for professionals 13 23 11 43 Pay part or all of the costs for professionals to receive supplementary formal education 25 17 14 34 Provide student internships, fellowships, scholarships, or summer employment 22 19 10 39 Career Advancement and Promotions Establish career advancement programs to train entry-level professionals for mid- and upper-management positions 13 8 2 67 Increase promotion from within the agency 12 28 7 43 Increase hiring from outside the agency 12 12 9 57 Consultants and Contractors Use consultants or contractors for: Project management 6 14 12 52 Route/site planning (rail only) 4 0 0 15 Preliminary engineering 4 3 5 7 Final design Real estate management (rail only) 1 1 0 17 Inspection and testing 2 2 2 13 Renovation/rehabilitation 11 8 11 60 Custodial maintenance 21 13 6 50 Mechanical maintenance 13 5 1 71 5No effect or action not taken.
Effect on Productivity of Staff Small Medium , Large None* 241 10 14 22 44 10 14 20 46 4 6 1 79 Legal counsel Claims and insurance management Revenue operations Analytical Procedures Obtain demonstrable increases in productivity through new or better economic analysis or operations research techniques Obtain productivity gains based on feedback from quantitative performance indicators measured against explicit objectives Other Increase overtime work Hire professionals from foreign countries Increase hiring and advancement of women and minorities No effect or action not taken 15 12 10 53 11 28 11 40 12 2 2 74 4 1 0 85 21 26 13 30 *
242 Do you expect to provide more, less, or the same level of service over the next 5 years? Indicate (M) more; (L) less; (S) same; or (NA) not applicable for the following: - Regular route bus service - Rail transit service - Demand responsive service - Elderly and handicapped service - Charter/contract service - Service brokering (carpool, vanpool, taxi) [SEE TABLE 4-131 Do you expect to require more, less, or the same levels of the following skills over' the next 5 years? Indicate: (M) more; (L) less; (S) same; or (NA) not applicable Middle management Supervisory Operations management Maintenance management Capital programs management Transportation system management (TSM) Human resources management Labor relations Community relations Legal Audit Financial, business, and economic analysis Indicate: (M) more; (L) less; (S) same; or (NA) not applicable Sfety Training Engineering - Design and construction Electrical - Civil and structural Mechanical Industrial
243 Marketing and information services Computer programming/systems analysis Elderly and handicapped service coordination Scheduling Service planning Service brokering Other skills (please list) [SEE TABLE 4-141 6. If your service level was increased by 25 percent above the current level, which three skills or type of staff listed above would you increase the most? SUPERVISORY - 22 OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT - 21 C. MAINTENANCE MANAGEMENT - 17 7. If your service level decreased by 25 percent, which skills or type of staff would you reduce the most? SUPERVISORY - 17 OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT - 14 C. MAINTENANCE MANAGEMENT - 12 8. Please have your human resources director or personnel specialist fill out the Attachment," which requests information as to: Your agency's retirement policies, Age distribution of professional staff, Anticipated attrition rates, and Future hiring plans. 9. If you wish to comment on these or other related issues, please do so below. Thank you for your responses.
244 ATTACHMENT 1. Are you anticipating any significant change in retire- ment policies likely to affect the size or age distri- bution of your professional staff? Yes 1 No 85 If yes, please attach a separate page explaining the changes, identifying when they become effective, and describing their impacts. 2. Please provide the following information reflecting your agency's retirement policies: What is the minimum age or combination of age and length of service when a person may retire? different combinations of age and length of service apply What is the age or combination of age and length of service when a person may retire with full benefits? different combinations of age and length of service apply Do you have a mandatory retirement age? Yes 31 No 50 If yes, what is it? 70 (26) What is the average retirement age? [SEE TABLE 4-51 3. Please fill out the following table reflecting the current age distribution of your staff and assessing retirement, attrition, and hiring levels over the next 5 years. For each professional category listed, indicate salary range. [SEE TABLE C-21 Note: If your employee classification system does not allow you to use our categories, please use your own classifications and furnish us with a definition of each and the salary range.
TABLE C-2 Age Distribution of Transit Professionals, 1984 Position Number in Less than 26 Age Group 26-35 36-45 46-55 56-60 61-65 66 + Total Executives 5 55 102 66 29 7 6 270 Operations 8 301 477 315 123 73 5 1,302 Maintenance 20 158 182 145 76 38 3 622 Planning/marketing 12 218 145 63 19 7 1 465 Finance/administration 42 331 273 133 63 49 12 903 Design/construction engineers 5 98 127 107 50 35 8 430 Other engineers 1 34 45 19 18 2 1 120 Total 93 1,195 1,351 848 378 211 36 4,112 Source: APTA survey of transit agencies for the Transportation Professional Needs Study, 1984. Note: 74 agencies responded to this question.
Appendix D Survey of State Highway Safety Offices The National Association of Governors' Highway Safety Representatives (NAGHSR) administered a survey for the Transportation Professional Needs Study to the governors' highway safety representatives and highway safety coordi- nators in the United States, Puerto Rico, and Guam. Of 53 surveys sent out, 41 were returned, a response rate of 77.4 percent, and all but two were filled out completely. Forty of the 53 surveys, or 75.5 percent, were processed and analyzed. Of the 40 surveys analyzed, 37 were from states and the remaining 3 were from the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Guam. A tabulation of the responses from the safety offices follows. 246
247 TABULATION OF SURVEY OF SAFETY OFFICES TRANSPORTATION PROFESSIONAL NEEDS STUDY 40 RESPONSES 1. Please indicate the number of person-years of in-house staff and the number of person years contracted out to other agencies orconsultants for: Your 1980 program Your current program Your projected program needs for 1989 Number of Person Years 1980 Current 1989 Out- Out- Out- Position Staff side Staff side Staff side Coordinator 55 0 55 0 51 1 Financial manager 41 1 36 4 37 3 Planner 43 1 22 0 28 0 Data analyst/ evaluator 62 35 47 28 48 33 Project/program specialist: -Occupant protection 18 9 33 22 34 27 -Alcohol coordination 32 20 44 22 52 29 -Emergency med i- cal services 13' 20 6 20 5 20 -Police traffic services 29 16 23 11 24 14 -Traffic records 34 12 29 11 35 13 -Traffic engineering 33 34 24 10 27 11 -Public informa- tion and education 29 21 21 15 27 15 -Motorcycle safety 8 5 8 2 11 4 -Pedestrian safety 13 2 6 0 9 4 -Other 226 14 213 11 240 11 Totals 636 200 567 156 628 185
248 2.a. Please check the first column if your office has taken any of the following measures intended to avoid skill shortages and improve productivity in the last 3 years. In the second column, rate the relative effect of each action you have taken on improving productiv- ity by using the following scale: o = we have not taken this action S = small effect M = medium effect L = large effect NA = not applicable Please check in the last if you intend to take the action in the next 3 years.
249 Past Actions No Action Effect on Productiv- or No Effect ity of Staff Future Actiona (0 or blank) Small Medium Large (Next 3 Years) Salaries, Wages, and Staffing Levels Raise salary/wage ecalee 16 10 12 2 2 Introduce merit, bonus, or incentive pay systems 28 5 4 3 2 Increase authorized staffing levels 33 1 6 0 7 Technology Introduce or substantially increase use of automated management information sy8tems 20 1 9 10 9 Introduce microcomputers throughout the office 28 3 4 5 9 Substantially increase use of other new kinds of technology 35 0 2 3 2 Staff Relations and Organizational Development Introduce quality circles or team building exercises 32 3 3 2 2 Reorganize office 11. 11 10 8 4 Change or redefine coordinating committee - staff roles 25 6 3 6 1 Flexible Staffing and Quality of Work Force Use job rotation and flexible ways of assigning professionals to tasks 28 3 7 2 5 Use part-time or retired professionals 32 2 3 3 5 Substitute paraprofessionals (e.g., technicians) for professionals 31 4 4 1 0 Participate in inter- governmental employee loan programs 37 1 1 1 1 Training and Education Through an explicit policy, add professional staff development to the responsibilities of managers 30 1 7 2 2
250 Past Actions No Action Effect on Productiv- or No Effect ity of Staff Future Actions (0 or blank) Small Medium Large (Next 3 Years) Introduce or expand participation in management training courses 17 4 16 3 1 Introduce or expand technical training and retraining programs for professionals 13 6 19 2 3 Pay part or all of the costs for professionals to receive supplementary formal education 27 4 6 3 0 Provide student internehips, fellowships, scholarships, or summer employment 26 5 7 2 3 Career Advancement and Promotions Establish career advancement programs to train entry-level professionals for mid- and upper-managethent positions 32 3 4 1 3 Increase promotion from within the office 28 2 7 3 4 Increase hiring from outside the office 33 1 4 2 5 Other Increase overtime work 35 1 3 1 2 Increase hiring and advancement of women and minorities 18 5 15 2 4 5. Please fill out the following table reflecting the current age distribution of your staff and assess retirement, attrition, and hiring levels through 1989. (SEE TABLE D-l]
TABLE D-1 Current Age Distribution of Professionals and Future Retirement, Attrition, and Hiring Plans of Highway Safety Off ices Age of Current Staff (number by age group) Future Staff (1985-1989) (number by category) Retired Less Eligible Lost than with Full Through To Be State 26 26-35 36-45 46-55 56-60 61-65 66+ Eligible Benefits Attrition Hired Alabama 0 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 Alaska n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Arizona 0 1 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Arkansas 1 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 California 0 2 2 5 3 0' 0 7 7 4 3 Colorado 0 1 6 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 Delaware 0 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Florida 2 0 5 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 Illinois 15 55 66 42 24 13 6 43 18 24 31 Indiana 0 4 3 1 4 2 0 4 1 3 3 Kansas 0 0 3 0 2 0 0 1 1 1 1 Kentucky 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 1 Maine 0 2 1 1 1 0 1 3 3 2 3 Maryland 0 0 2 3 1 0 0 3 0 3 3 Massachusetts 0 2 4 2 0 1 1 2 1 0 2 Michigan 0 0 16 1 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 0 Mississippi 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 Missouri 3 6 4 6 0 0 1 3 1 3 3 Montana 0 2 5 1 0 0 0 1 0 5 5 Nebraska 0 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nevada 0 2 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 New Hampshire 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 2 2 0 2 New Jersey 1 1 2 5 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 New MexicO 0 2 0 4 1 0 0 2 0 0 10 North Dakota 0 2 3 2 0 0 0 5 0 0 1
TABLE 0-1 (continued) Age of Current Staff (number by age group) Future Staff (1985-1989) (number by cate?ory) Retired t.es8 Eligible Lost than with Full Through To Be State 26 26-35 36-45 46-55 56-60 61-65 66+ Eligible Benefits Attrition Hired Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming District of Columbia Guam Puerto Rico 3 8 5 3 2 0 0 2 2 1 3 15 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 8 1 0 1 2 0 1 1 2 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 10 19 5 2 0 0 12 11 7 19 0 1 1 3 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 17 1 2 2 0 4 4 8 8 0 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 10 5 4 0 0 0 4 0 2 2 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 4 4 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 53 143 207 107 52 21 10 108 56 77 123 Source: NPIGHSR survey administered to state safety offices for Transportation Professional Needs Study. Note: n.a. = no answer.
Appendix E Survey of Civil Engineering Consulting Firms in Tfransportation NUMBER OF FIRMS AND PROFESSIONALS Nationwide, approximately 66,000 engineers and 57,000 technicians work in 9,000 civil engineering consulting firms involved in all types of transportation (Table E-l). Eighty-one percent of the firms (7,290) have 25 or fewer employees. These small firms account for 38 percent of the engineers and 34 percent of the techni- cians with an average of 3.5 engineers and 2.7 techni- cians per firm. Nineteen percent (1,170) of all the firms have 26 or more employees, and these contain 62 percent of the engineers and 66 percent of the techni- cians. The 180 largest firms, with more than 200 employ- ees, have an average of 104 engineers-and 100 technicians per firm. In addition, a large number of other private firms provide management, planning, legal, and accounting services to public agencies. SURVEY OF CONSULTING FIRMS The American Consulting Engineers Council (ACEC) and the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) jointly conducted a survey of 300 of the nation's 9,000 transpor- tation civil engineering firms; 115 firms responded, a response rate of 38.3 percent. This is a modest response rate and inferences drawn from the survey data reflect uncertainty related to the sample size that should be taken into account. The firms surveyed were representative of the nation- wide population in that the proportion in a size class roughly matched the nationwide distribution by size of firm. The survey results provide information on 253
TABLE E-1 Number of Engineers and Technicians in Civil Engineering Transportation Consulting Firms in the United States Size of Firm Number of Civil - Average Number of Average Number of Based on Number Engineering. Firms Transportation - Total Number of Technicians Working Total Number of of Employees in Transportationa Engineersb . EngineerSb on Transportatiónb Techniciansb 1 - 25 7,290 3.5 25,515 2.7 19,683 26 - 75 1,170 10.5 12,285 9.6 11,232 76 - 200 360 27.3 9,828 21.6 7,776 200 + 180 104.4 18,792 100.7 18,126 TOTALS 9,000 66,420 56,817 Note: 112 consulting firms responded. tmThe Bureau of the Census estimates that there are 30,000 engineering consulting firms throughout the nation. AEC reports that 81 percent of firms have 1-25 employees; 13 percent have 26-75 employees; 4 percent have 76-200 employees; and 2 percent have 200+ employees. Thirty percent of all engineering consulting firms are civil engineering firms in transportation. bAcEC and ITS surveys for Transportation Professional Needs Study.
255 the role consultants play in meeting the needs of public agencies. In addition, because consultants offer higher pay on average than do public agencies and attract a large number of talented professionals attuned to the state of the art, the consultant firms are a barometer of future trends, not only in engineering practice, but in human resource management. This appendix includes a tabulation of the survey responses following a description of the responses by the large and small firms. The 115 respondents were divided into two groups: 94 small firms with 25 or fewer employees and 21 large firms with more than 25 employees. Large and small firms exhibit dramatically different characteristics. Small firms do not have as complex an organizational structure as do the large firms. The large firms appear to require a broader array of manage- ment and staffing practices to deal with the organiza- tional complexity than do small firms. Transportation agencies in the public sector may find it informative to consider the staffing practices of the large firms, their counterparts in the private sector, even though the sample size of the large consultant firms is small and thus it is extremely hazardous to draw inferences. The large firms responding to the survey appear to devote a larger fraction of their staff to surface trans- portation civil engineering than do small firms, though the discrepancy could easily be attributable to sample- size errors. In the past 2 years, large firms devoted about 47 percent of their engineering staff hours to highways and 15 percent to transit, whereas the small firms devoted roughly 37 percent to highways 'and 5 percent to transit. All of the large firms hired transportation profession- als in the last year, whereas only 63 percent of the small ones did. Of those firms hiring last year, about half of both the large and small firms had difficulty recruiting, hiring, or retaining professional engineers. The large ones more frequently cited difficulties recruiting, hiring, or retaining management-level engi- neers and technicians. There 'appears to be no difference in the reasons for recruiting, hiring, or retention problems. Nearly the same percentage of large and small firms assert that lack of qualified applicants poses the most serious problem (71 versus 76 percent), though respondents had no way of revealing through their survey responses how
256 they determined that applicants were not qualified. Other problems cited were far less serious. Geographic location of offices was the next most serious problem cited, but only by 19 percent of the large firms and 15 percent of the small firms gave this as a reason. Large and small firms appear to raise salaries with similar frequency, and close to half of both kinds of firms pay all or part of managerial or technical training costs. Yet large firms, as expected, take a greater range of actions affecting employment benefits, training, and career advancement. Large firms appear twice as likely to raise compensation at office locations where the cost of living is higher to facilitate relocation reassignment of staff, increase reimbursement for moving expenses of employees and their families, introduce cafeteria-style benefit packages or employment stock ownership plans, send professionals to management training outside the firm, and introduce or expand in- house training. Large firms also appear more than twice as likely as small firms to require professional staff development among the responsibilities of managers through an explicit policy (48 percent versus 20 percent) and four times as likely to provide explicit alternative career paths for professionals, one based on supervising and management status and the other on tech- nical skills and knowledge (38 percent versus 10 percent). Survey responses suggest that large and small firms rely on computer technology to a similar extent, except that a bigger fraction of large firms in the past have introduced or substantially increased computer-aided design (62 versus 39 percent). However, two-thirds of the small firms say that in the next 2 years they will introduce or substantially increase computer-aided design. About two-thirds of both large and small firms rely heavily on microcomputers. Both seem to be using portable microcomputers in the field at similar rates (roughly 20 percent), though 40 percent of the large firms versus 20 percent of the small firms are planning to use more portables in the next 2 years. Also, more than half of the large firms use a computer-planning or project-scheduling system, whereas only about 15 percent of the small firms do. Large firms are more likely than small firms to subcon- tract for engineering (67 versus 36 percent) , subcontract for surveying and inspection (57 versus 38 percent), and
257 engage in joint ventures with other firms (81 versus 56 percent). Both large and small firms rely heavily on part-time or retired personnel (roughly 60 percent). Both reorganize their firms and apply personnel cost benefit analysis with similar frequency (roughly 10 to 15 percent). The big firms, with their inherently greater complexity, seem much more likely to use job rotation and flexible ways of assigning professionals to tasks (43 versus 23 percent), organize project tasks to reduce labor requirements (57 versus 30 percent), and introduce team-building exercises (24 versus 5 percent). Both types of firms'make substantial use of technicians. Half hire technicians qualified in several skill areas and use technicians for inspection of projects under construction. A third of both large and small firms give technicians lead work responsibility for design under supervision of engineers. However, large firms are much more likely to use technicians for structural inspection (42 versus 8 percent) and for post- project inspection (23 versus 10 percent). Large and small firms appear to have similar views of changes in the types of work that they anticipate during the next 5 years. Two-thirds or more see rehabilitation work increasing, whereas less than 5 percent expect it to decline. Four-fifths of the large firms and about half the small firms expect bridge and structure work to increase. About half expect traffic operations-related work to increase and less than 10 percent expect it to decline. Both types of firms anticipate construction management work to increase, the large firms more so than the small ones (57 versus 32 percent). Consulting firms expect the least growth in maintenance work, but about one-third of both large and small firms expect more maintenance work and only 5 percent expect it to decline. The most important future skill requirements antici- pated by the large firms during the next 5 years are (in order of importance) project manager, computer program- mer, supervisor, technician computer operator, highway designer, construction inspector, computer systems analyst, technician construction inspector, and struc- tural engineer. More than 50 percent of the large firms see greater needs for these skill areas and virtually none foresees less. Small firms foresee similar skill needs in the next 5 years, the most important being (in order of importance)
258 technician computer operator, project manager, project inspector (engineers and technicians), structural engi- neer, computer programmer, traffic control and operations specialist, highway designer, computer systems analyst, and construction manager. Small firms foresee less need for supervisory skills than do large firms. A tabulation of the combined responses of large and small civil engineering consulting firms involved in transportation follows.
259 TABULATION OF CONSULTING FIRM SURVEY TRANSPORTATION PROFESSIONAL NEEDS STUDY 115 RESPONSES 1. Has your firm hired transportation professional staff in the last 12 months? Yes 35 No 80 If yes, please mark below if you have had difficulty filling any of the following positions: 31 Management-level engineers 42 Other professional engineers 17 Nonprofessional engineers 11 Other professional staff 24 Technicians/drafters 2. If you have had problems in recruiting, hiring, retaining, or utilizing professional staff in the past 12 months, check the reasons in the list below: 60 Lack of qualified applicants 7 Registration and certification requirements 9 Previous layoffs or attrition in your firm 10 Change in public funding 5 Size of firm 2 Employee benefits 13 Geographic location of offices 7 Salaries 10 Other (please list) 3. Please check if your firm has taken any of the following measures to minimize or avoid skill or staff, shortages and improve'productivity in the past 2 years. Also check those measures that your firm plans to implement within the next 2 years:
260 Last Next 2 2 Years Years Salaries and Benefits 31 16 Raise compensation at office loca- tion(s) where cost of living is higher to facilitate relocation or reassign- ment of staff 77 65 Raise salaries 28 24 Adjust benefits packages, i.e., intro- duce cafeteria style benefits plan, employee stock ownership plan, etc. 17 10 Increase reimbursement for moving expenses of employees and their families 29 37 Through an explicit policy, require professional staff development among the responsibilities of managers 30 44 Introduce or expand in-house training 41 40 Send professionals to management training outside the firm 57 59 Pay all or part of managerial or tech- nical training costs 41 34 Provide student internships, fellow- ships, scholarships, or summer employment 17 23 Provide explicit alternative career paths for professionals, one based on supervising and management status and the other on technical skills and knowledge Technology 49 78 Introduce or substantially increase computer-aided design
261 Last 2 Years Next 2 Years 68 78 Introduce or substantially increase microcomputers throughout the firm 20 28 Introduce or substantially increase portable microcomputers for field use 68 82 Introduce or substantially increase number of engineering software packages being used 22 14 Introduce or substantially increase use of computer time sharing services 25 43 Use a computer-planning and project- scheduling system 2 1 Other: 48 43 Use subcontractors for engineering 48 45 Use subcontractors for surveying! inspection 70 65 Joint venture with other firms Flexible Staffing and Quality of Work Force 67 61 Hire part-time or retired personnel 40 46 Organize project tasks to reduce labor requirements 31 33 Use job rotation and flexible ways of assigning professionals to tasks 11 16 Apply personnel cost-benefit analyses 10 15 Introduce team-building exercises 15 16 Reorganize firm
262 Last Next 2 2 Years Years Technicians 58 61 Hire technicians qualified in several skill areas 56 50 Use technicians for inspection of projects under construction 16 19 Use technicians for postconstruction inspection 17 14 Use technicians for structural inspection 37 45 Give technicians lead work responsi- bility for design under supervision of engineers 4. Indicate by placing a check in the appropriate boxes below what changes you anticipate in the relative levels of highway major construction, rehabilitation, maintenance, bridge, and traffic operations work performed by your firm over the next 5 years: More Less Same New construction 55 18 29 Rehabilitation 83 13 10 Maintenance 35 4 41 Bridges and structures 72 5 15 Traffic operations 54 6 38 Construction management 42 5 38
263 5. a. Assuming that only the highway/mass transit project mix may change and the dollar volume of work remains unchanged, please indicate where you expect to require more, less, or the same level of the following skills over the next 5 years: Skills More Less Same Project management 61 0 40 Supervisory 41 3 49 Highway design 55 12 32 Mass transit design 31 17 27 Structural engineering 53 3 35 Construction management 40 3 36 Construction inspection 57 4 30 Maintenance management 21 8 40 Traffic control and operations 42 4 46 Architectural 17 12 42 Planning 30 11 45 Safety 21 6 52 Economic analysis 27 5 49 Transportation system management 31 3 34 Technician skills: - Drafting 54 14 34 - Surveying 28 7 52 - Inspection 53 1 33 - Computer operator 68 2 20 Computer programming 50 3 33 Computer systems analysis 46 4 27 5. b. If your firm's highway project volume increased 25 percent in real dollars, which three skills listed above would you increase the most? Highway design (35) Project management (20) Structural engineering (15) Traffic control and operations (7) Drafting (6)
264 5. c. If your firm's highway project volume decreased 25 percent in real dollars, which three skills listed above would you decrease the most? Highway design (26) Project 'management (10) Drafting (12) Structural engineering (7) 6. What is the total number of employees in your firm? [SEE TABLE E-21 7. What is the total number of transportation-related engineers in your firm? [SEE TABLE E-3,1 8. What is the total number of transportation-related technicians or drafters in your firm? [SEE TABLE E-41 9. In the past 2 years what has been the percentage of engineering man hours devoted to: 40 (average) highways [SEE TABLE E-51 7 (average) mass transit [SEE TABLE E-51 53 (average) other types of engineering [SEE TABLE E-51 10. Please provide any additional comments you may have.
TABLE E-3 Number of Firms with Transportation Engineering Staff of Varying Size TABLE E-2 Number of Firms of Different Size Based on Total Employees Total Number Employees of Firms 1-10 20 11-25 23 26-75 29 76-200 23 200+ 18 113 Total Number of Transportation- Related Number Engineers of Firms 1-5 48 6-10 19 11-25 24 26-75 10 75+ 11 112 TABLE E-4 Number of Firms with Transportation Technician Staff of Varying Size Total Number of Transportation Technicians Number of Firms 0-5 56 6-10 17 11-25 19 26-75 14 75+ 112 TABLE E-5 Percentage of Staff Hours Devoted to Different Types of Engineering Percentage of Number of Firms by Type of Engineering Staff Hours Highway Transit Other 0-20 32 37 22 21-40 31 5 24 41-60 20 4 20 61-80 14 - 26 81-100 7 - 17 104 46 109
Appendix F Survey of Local Transportation Agencies The Institute of Transportation Engineers administered a survey on behalf of the Transportation Research Board to 200 local transportation agencies. Eighteen local transportation agencies completed portions of the ques- tionnaire, a response rate of 9 percent. Any inferences drawn from these data should be discounted very heavily. A tabulation of the responses to the portions of the survey filled out by most respondents follows. 266
267 TABULATION OF SURVEY OF LOCAL TRANSPORTATION AGENCIES TRANSPORTATION PROFESSIONAL NEEDS STUDY 18 RESPONSES 1. Please check any of the categories below for which critical staff shortages currently exist in your agency: SKILL AREAS 7 Transportation planning 8 Traffic engineering 6 Roadway design 3 Structural design 3 Construction inspection and management 4 Environmental analyses PRO'ESSIONAL LEVELS 6 Management-level engineers 11 Other professional engineers -- 8 Engineer technicians 2. Has your agency hired professional, staff in the last 12 months? Yes 7 No 10 IF YES, have you had difficulty filling any professional positions? Management-level engineers Yes 7 No 0 Other professional engineers Yes 4 No 1 Engineer technicians Yes 3 No 2 3. What problems, if any, have you had in recruiting, hiring, retaining, or utilizing professional staff in the past 12 months? Some common problems are low wages; hiring lids; lack of qualified graduates; registration and certification requirements; affirma- tive action requirements; residency requirements; rigid work rules or territoriality; relocation expenses; previous layoffs or attrition; changes in
268 funding level or program mix. Please list the most important problems in order: 9 Low wages 5 Affirmative action 5 Hiring freeze 3 Lack of qualified applicants 2 Previous layoffs 2 Program mix 2 Proposition 2 1/2 2 Residency requirement 1 Cost of living in city 1 Registration/certification 4.a. Please check the first two columns if your office has taken any of the following measures intended to avoid skill shortages and improve productivity in the last 2 years or more than 2 years ago. In the third column, rate the relative effect of each action you have taken on improving productiv- ity by using the following scale: o = we have not taken this action S = small effect M = medium effect L = large effect Then please check in the last column if you are likely to take the action in the next 2 years.
269 Past Actions More Future Than Actions Last 2 (Next 2 Years Rating 2 Years) Years Ago 0 S N C. Salaries, Wages, and Hiring Lids Raise or remove hiring lid on number of staff 5 4 9 2 1 2 6 Raise wage scales 8 8 5 7 6 0 11 Raise or eliminate the mandatory retirement age 1 6 12 4 0 0 3 Increase the minimum age and/or length of service to be eligible for retirement 1 2 16 1 0 0 1 Decrease the minimum retirement age and/or length of service 1 3 12 3 1 0 1 Technology Introduce or substantially increase computer-aided design 7 1 11 0 4 2 8 Introduce microcomputers throughout the agency 11 0 6 3 6 0 8 Substantially increase use of other new kinds of technology 2 0 12 2 0 0 2 Consultants and Contractors Use consultants for preliminary engineering 10 8 3 2 7 5 9 Use consultants or contractors for surveying 11 4 6 1 8 2 8 Use consultants for inspection 8 5 7 3 3 2 5 Use contractors for inspection 0 0 16 0 0 0 0 Team Building and Organizational Development Introduce quality circles or team-building exercises 3 0 13 2 0 1 2 Reorganize agency 9 6 4 3 7 2 5 Flexible Staffing and Quality of Work Force Relax registration requirements for engineers 1 0 15 0 1 0 0 Increase the number of engineering positions requiring registration 4 0 11 4 1 0 2
270 Past Actions More Future Than Actions Last 2 (Next 2 Years Rating 2 Years) Years Ago 0 S N L Use part-time or retired professionals 7 2 10 3 4 0 8 Participate in intergovernmental employee loan programs 1 0 14 0 1 0 2 Use job rotation and flexible ways of assigning professionals to tasks 6 2 10 2 4 0 5 Technicians Require certification of technicians 1 1 15 0 1 0 3 Require technicians to be qualified in several skill areas 6 5 8 3 6 0 7 Use technicians for construction inspection 4 11 5 4 7 0 7 Use technicians for project management 6 8 7 5 5 0 2 Give technicians lead work responsibility for highway design under supervision of engineers 7 7 7 4 6 0 5 Training and Education Through an explicit policy, add professional staff development to the responsibilities of managers 3 6 11 4 1 2 7 Introduce or expand in-house management training courses 9 6 5 9 3 0 7 Send professionals to management training courses outside the agency 8 7 5 9 0 3 11 Give noninanagerial staff managerial- type responsibilities as training for higher positions 8 10 6 5 6 0 11 Introduce or expand technical training and retraining programs for professionals 9 9 4 5 8 1 14 Pay part or all of the costs for professionals to receive supplementary formal education 9 10 4 7 6 0 10 Provide student internships, fellowships, scholarships, or summer employment 7 6 6 3 5 2 9 Career Advancement and Promotions Establish explicit alternative career paths for professionals, one based on supervisory and management status and the other on technical skills and knowledge 0 0 16 0 0 0 0
271 Past Actions More Future Than Actions Last 2 (Next 2 Years Rating 2 Years) Years Ago 0 S M L Increase promotion from within the agency 3 7 9 1 6 0 12 Increase hiring from outside the agency 2 4 11 2 3 0 4 Analytical Procedures Obtain demonstrable increases in productivity through new or better economic analysis or operations research techniques 3 0 13 1 0 2 7 Obtain productivity gains based on feedback from quantitative performance indicators measured against explicit objectives 4 0 14 2 0 2 6 Introduce a construction or maintenance management system 2 4 12 2 4 0 9 Other Stage projects to reduce labor requirements 7 10 6 5 1 5 9 Increase overtime work 7 7 8 2 2 3 6 Hire foreign nationals 0 2 14 2 0 0 2 Increase hiring of women and minorities 6 6 7 6 2 2 7 Increase reimbursement for moving expenses of employees and their families 1 1 15 1 0 0 2
272 5. a. What changes do you expect in the relative levels of major construction, rehabilitation, mainte- nance, bridge, and traffic operations work in your highway program over the next 5 years? Indicate (M) more; (L) less; or (S) same: More Less Same Major construction 1 10 7 Rehabilitation 15 1 3 Maintenance 10 2 6 Bridges and structures 5 4 7 Traffic operations 9 0 7 b. Do you expect to require more, less, or the same levels of the following skills over the next 5 years? Assume that your agency will operate under the same total budget and staff constraints as today and ONLY THE PROGRAM MIX MAY CHANGE. Indicate (M) more; (L) less; or (S) same: More Less Same Middle management 6 3 9 Supervisory 5 1 11 Highway design 3 2 12 Structural engineering 1 2 11 Construction management 6 3 7 Construction inspection 6 0 10 Maintenance management 7 0 9 Rehabilitation and recycling 5 3 8 Traffic handling and operations 9 0 8 Safety 7 0 10 Technician skills 5 2 5 - Drafting 4 2 9 - Surveying 2 1 12 - Inspection 8 3 4 - Project management 5 1 9 Environmental impact analysis 4 1 9 Computer programming/ systems analysis 12 0 4 Legal 6 3 9 Accounting 2 3 13 Financial, business, and economic analysis 4 2 12 Planning 8 0 10 Transportation system management (TSM) 5 2 11
273 6. a. If spending on your highway program increased 25 percent in real dollars, which three skills or types of staff listed above would you increase the most? Computer programming/systems analysis (8) Construction inspection (6) Construction management (6) Highway design (6) Maintenance management (5) Technician skills (4) Environmental impact analysis (2) Safety (2) Supervisory (2) Transportation system management (TSM) (2) Inspection (technician skill) (1) Legal (1) Planning (1) Project management (technician skill) (1) Rehabilitation and recycling (1) Traffic handling and operations (1) Accounting (0) Drafting (technician skill) (0) Financial, business, and economic analysis (0) Middle management (0) Structural engineering (0) Surveying (technician skill) (0) b. If your highway program decreased 25 percent in real dollars, which three skills or types of staff would you reduce the most? Highway design (5) Technician skills (5) Construction inspection (4) Accounting (3) Middle management (3) Rehabilitation and recycling (3) Transportation system management (TSM) (3) Computer programming/systems analysis (2) Drafting (technician skill) (2) Environmental impact analysis (2) Planning (2) Supervisory (2)
274 Surveying (technician skill) (2) Financial, business, and economic analysis (1) Maintenance management (1) Project management (technician skill) (1) Safety (1) Construction management (0) Inspection (technician skill) (0) Legal (0) Structural engineering (0) Traffic handling and operations (0)
Appendix C Oregon Department of Transportation Management Home Purchase Program Effective January 1, 1984 the Department began a program to help management and executive service employ- ees relocate when accepting a position beneficial to the Department. This is a pilot project continuing through December 31, 1985. Extension of the program will depend upon its cost and success. WHAT IS THE HOME PURCHASE PROGRAM ALL ABOUT? ODOT needs to move employees from one location to another in the course of accomplishing its work and promoting its employees. It has become increasingly common for employees to reject a promotion or transfer because it is so difficult to sell a house in today's economy. This program is a tool to be used by management at its discretion to assist and encourage the best qualified employees to promote or transfer. The movement of employees is especially important when critical positions are to be filled. The Department anticipates that the program will allow us to maintain the high professional standards expected by the public and management. Under this pilot project, ODOT, when requested by the employee, will appraise an employee's home and offer to buy that home for cash at 94 percent of appraised value. An eligible employee of ODOT will then be relieved of the responsibility of selling his home when considering a promotion or transfer to a new area. 275
276 WHO IS ELIGIBLE? An ODOT employee presently in the management or executive service at the time he/she transfers or promotes into another management position may be eligible. The promo- tion or transfer must have taken place at the request of ODOT after November 1, 1983 and must be to a new head- quarters at least 35 miles from the present headquarters. Eligibility will be determined by Administration on a case by case basis. HOW DOES THE PROGRAM WORK? Either before or after accepting a promotion or transfer an ODOT employee may request certification of eligibility by completing an Eligibility Certification Form available through the Personnel Services Branch. The form must be returned to Personnel Services for consideration. When an eligible employee wishes to obtain an offer from ODOT, an Appraisal and Offer Request Form must be completed and returned within six months from the date of acceptance of the promotion or transfer. In other words, an employee may take up to six months to attempt to sell his or her residence before requesting ODOT to make an offer. The Appraisal and Offer Request Form is available through the Personnel Services Branch. Once an employee has requested that ODOT make an offer, a licensed appraiser from ODOT's Highway Division, Right of Way Section will be in contact with the employee to establish time and date for an appraisal. The appraisal will be based upon prevailing market conditions in the area of the residence and upon standard appraisal principles. The appraisal will determine the market value of the residence which is the highest price a property will sell for if placed on sale on the open market, allowing reasonable time to find an informed purchaser. If an employee is dissatisfied with the appraisal completed by ODOT, that employee may obtain a second appraisal from an independent fee appraiser and ODOT will pay one-half of the cost. A form requesting this partial reimbursement is available through the Personnel Services Branch. Based upon the appraisal, or a reconciliation of the two appraisals where a second is undertaken, a final appraised value shall be established by ODOT after
277 EMPLOYEE ELIGIBILITY CERTIFICATION Please answer each question contained in this form to obtain a determination of your eligibility for the ODOT Home Purchase Program. Employee Name: Title of: Old Position: New Position: Is the new position in the Li Management Service Li Executive Service Location of old headquarters: Location of new headquarters: Distance between old and new headquarters: miles. Does the new position reflect a: Transfer: LI Yes LI No Promotion: LI Yes LI No If the new position reflects a transfer, did the agency request the transfer? LI Yes LI No Not Recommended Recommended Reason Supervisor Date Section Manager Date Branch Manager Date (Please forward to Personnel) *Attach added sheets for explanation if needed. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OFFICE USE ONLY Employee's Name: Verification By: (Signature) (Date) Applicant is LI eligible LI ineligible Reasons for determination that applicant is ineligible: Recommended By: Approved By: (Administrator) (Director) discussions with the employee. Subsequently, a cash offer equal to 94 percent of the appraised value shall be submitted to the employee generally within 30 days from the date on which the employee requests an appraisal and offer. It may take slightly longer where a second appraisal is obtained.
APPRAISAL AND OFFER REQUEST I, hereby request the ODOT to (print name) appraise my residence and submit an offer to me to purchase it. My eligibility for this program has been certified and a copy of the executed Eligibility Certification Form is attached. I accepted the new position specified on the Eligibility Certification Form on I agree to grant entry to an authorized ODOT (date) appraiser at the earliest mutually convenient date for the purpose of appraising my residence located at (address) (signature of employee) (date) SECOND APPRAISAL REIMBURSEMENT REQUEST have obtained a second appraisal of my residence located at from a licensed fee appraiser. A copy of the appraisal is being delivered by the appraiser directly to ODOT's Right of Way Section. I hereby request reimbursement in the amount of $________________________ one-half of the cost of the second appraisal. A copy of the billing is attached. (signature of employee) Attachment
279 An employee must accept the ODOT offer within 60 days from the date of the offer or it will be deemed rejected. The employee may sell his or her own home any time prior to accepting the ODOT offer. If an employee accepts the offer, the closing will be scheduled to occur at a title and escrow company selected by the employee no more than 60 days from the date of the acceptance. Normally, the employee will be paid in cash at the time of closing. After the closing the employee will have no further interest, liability, or responsibility in the home. ELIGIBLE PROPERTY ODOT will purchase only single-family residences, includ- ing mobile homes and land and related or essential buildings. The following will not be purchased: Multi-family dwellings Business property Agricultural property Personal property not an integral part of the residence Land in excess of typical residential lots A single-family residence is defined as an owner- occupied dwelling unit and the land it occupies, limited to parcels of land typical in size for residential use in the immediate area. Owner-occupied mobile homes located on land owned by the occupant are included. ODOT reserves the right to determine the eligibility of property for purchase under this program. WHAT ACTION IS REQUIRED? If you are being promoted or transferred to a new work station and you believe you are eligible, do the following: 1. Obtain and complete an Employee Eligibility Certifi- cation Form No. 731-0213. These forms are available through Personnel Operations, Room 302 Transporta- tion Building, Salem. The telephone number is 378-6568. The form must be returned to Personnel
280 Operations for verification. When verified, Person- nel will submit it to your Division Administrator for recommendation and then it goes to the Director for final approval. When you have been approved as eligible and wish to obtain an offer on your home from ODOT, you must complete an Appraisal and Offer Request Form No. 731-0214. These forms are also available from Personnel. If you receive an offer from ODOT and you are not satisfied with it, you may obtain a second appraisal from an independent fee appraiser. You may be reimbursed for one-half the cost by submitting Form No. 731-0215 from Personnel entitled Second Apprais- als Reimbursement Request. If you have any comments or questions about the ODOT Management Home Purchase Program, they should be submit- ted in writing to the Personnel Services Branch. Your comments would be especially appreciated to help us determine whether the program is accomplishing its objectives.
Appendix H Conference on Surface Transportation Education and rftaining: Summary and Recommendations INTRODUCTION The Conference on Surface Transportation Education and Training was held in Williamsburg, Virginia, on October 28-31, 1984. The conference was sponsored by the Trans- portation Research Board, the Urban Mass Transportation Administration, and the Federal Highway Administration. There were approximately 80 participants, drawn from universities, government agencies, transit operators, consulting firms, transportation companies, and business firms. The conference had three objectives: To define the educational requirements of transpor- tation professionals who will be entering or continuing practice during the next several decades; To assess the ability of existing education and training programs to fulfill these educational requirements; and To recommend measures to improve the ability of educators and employers to develop and effectively utilize human resources. The findings and conclusions from the conference follow. Thesle findings and conclusions are drawn primar- ily from the conference workshop discussions, as reflected in the remarks prepared by the respective work- shop chairpersons supplemented by observations made in the keynote paper and resource papers prepared for the conference. 281
282 THE SENSE OF THE CONFERENCE An overall sense of the attitudes and perceptions of the conference participants is captured in the following six words and phrases, which appear repeatedly in the resource papers and workshop discussions. Challenge: The transportation profession faces significant challenges that will tax the technical and managerial abilities of everyone involved. Although transportation education faces serious problems, these challenges should be viewed as a significant opportunity to define new directions for program development. Change: Transportation professionals will face more change in the next 20 years than that which has occurred during the past 20 years. This rapidity of change is a major source of the new challenges facing the profession. Image: The past image of the transportation profes- sion and an incorrect perception of its future are inhibiting the ability of the profession to attract the best and most creative students and new graduates. Rectifying this image is perhaps the major challenge facing the profession today. System Management: Tomorrow's transportation professionals will be concerned more with managing and maintaining existing systems than with devel- oping new systems. This new orientation requires a change in the skills of transportation professionals. Computers: The transportation professional must have the ability to apply current and emerging computer technology to problem solving and transpor- tation management. This skill must go beyond mere computer literacy. Communications: The transportation professional must have the ability to communicate effectively with the public, with other transportation profes- sionals, with professionals in other fields, and with elected government officials. These skills are becoming more important as the role of the transportation professional changes.
283 A CENTRAL FINDING: SOME AGGRESSIVE IMAGE BUILDING IS NEEDED The challenges and opportunities facing the transporta- tion professional are some of the most interesting and potentially rewarding that have ever occurred in the history of the profession. However, this is not gener- ally recognized by students, advisors, and the public at large. The high-quality professionals needed to respond to these challenges will not be available unless this message is communicated in an effective manner. This can be done by developing and disseminating information on who transportation professionals are, what they do, and the leverage that they exert on the economy and society. Developing this type of information in an attractive format might well require the efforts of a consortium of professional societies and other interested parties. NEED TO ANTICIPATE FUTURE CONDITIONS Although virtually all areas of transportation practice are currently able to hire well-qualified professionals when needed, there will be a much tighter market for these professionals in coming years. Agencies should act now to ensure that they have professionals with the new skills needed to respond to emerging requirements. Transportation Engineers The number of transportation engineers required in the future will increase, even though enrollments in trans- portation engineering curricula have been declining sharply, and a significant and sustained halt in this decline has yet to appear. As a result, the pipeline of future professionals, especially with advanced degrees, is rapidly emptying. Ultimately, this will divert educa- tional resources away from transportation, which will limit the ability of educational institutions to respond to future shortages.
284 Transportation Planners There is no significant shortage of transportation planners now, because demand and supply are both low. However, this situation could change rapidly in the future when it becomes more apparent that planning skills can be applied successfully to system maintenance and rehabilitation programs. The demand for planners might also increase at state and local government levels and in consulting firms as planning responsibilities are shifted away from the federal government. If anything, the educational pipeline is even emptier of planners than of engineers. Planning requirements in areas such as the environment and energy are likely to assume renewed importance in the future. As is the case with engineering, the empty pipeline will limit the ability of educational institutions to respond to these potential shortages. Public Transit Few qualified graduates are now electing careers in public transit, because of the stultified image of this area of practice. Consequently, qualified managers who will have the talents necessary to respond to the chang- ing future role of public transit will be in short supply. More so than in almost any other area, the shortage in transit is one of quality rather than quantity. The entrepreneurial and communications skills required to successfully manage a transit organization today are in short supply and are being bid away from the public sector. Transportation Technicians The role of the transportation technician is changing and expanding, but it is not entirely clear how the demand for technicians will react to current trends. New technology is increasing productivity and reducing demand but is also creating new jobs for technicians. Also, responsibilities traditionally reserved for entry- level engineers and other professionals are being shifted to technicians. On balance, it is likely that more and better qualified technicians will be needed.
285 Shippers and Carriers There are expanding opportunities and exciting new chal- lenges in freight transportation. Consequently, the private sector is attracting many transportation-oriented students who historically might have elected public- sector careers. Transportation and physical distribution management are also attracting increasing numbers of women and minorities. These trends are beneficial to commercial transportation but will serve to exacerbate the other shortages mentioned earlier. INSTITUTIONAL BARRIERS There are a number of societal and institutional barriers to the recruitment, development, and effective utiliza- tion of human resources in transportation. Salary Structure The salaries of professionals employed in transportation, especially engineers, are currently well behind those that graduates can obtain in other fields. Public-sector agencies need to recognize that this result of current market conditions is not a permanent feature. Maintaining a high-quality professional staff to meet future needs requires that agencies periodically review their salary structures to ensure that they are success- ful in recruiting and retaining high-quality professionals. Diminishing Public Service Ethic Public-sector salaries, especially in state and local government and in transit agencies, have always lagged salaries for comparable private-sector work. However, this salary gap was historically counteracted somewhat by the recognition that public-sector work was a service to society and provided valuable professional experience. This public service ethic is largely lacking in today's graduates. Institutions must work to rekindle this ethic, in addition to signaling the importance of this type of work through improved salaries.
286 Rigid Hiring and Promotion Practices The hiring and promotion practices of public transporta- tion agencies were developed in an era when both jobs and candidates were plentiful and when design and construction of new facilities were the agencies' primary activities. This situation has changed drastically, but these personnel practices have not changed. In particu- lar, many positions that now have little or no engineer- ing content and that require considerable managerial skill are still reserved for engineers. Underutilization of Women and Minorities Although women and minorities are underrepresented in virtually all professional areas, this is especially evident in transportation. The rigid hiring and promo- tion policies identified in the foregoing are major reasons for this. There has also been a lack (until recently) of appropriate programs at historically blacc universities and colleges. Educational institutions and employers must recognize that the challenges facing the transportation profession require effective utilization of all of the available human resources. Undervalued Professional Development Employing organizations, especially in the public sector, have a direct interest in the educational development of their employees. Organizations should encourage and support employee efforts to obtain additional training or advanced degrees. Increased attention should be given to improved professional development if employers are to be successful in ensuring that their professionals acquire the new skills that will be needed to face future challenges. SIGNIFICANT TRENDS A number of significant trends are driving the emerging educational needs of future transportation professionals: 1. Development to management: The future professional will be involved in the management, maintenance,
287 rehabilitation, and improvement of existing trans- portation systems rather than in the development of new systems. Privatization: Government is currently looking to the private sector to provide an increasing propor- tion of the goods and services required by society. This includes the use of contractors and consultants to perform services formerly performed internally. This also implies competition with the private sector for the best people. Computerization: Computer technology is becoming a way of life in all organizations. This includes increasing use of computer-aided design and drafting, microcomputers, distributed processing, and office automation. Reorganization: Transportation agencies are being restructured at the federal, state, and local levels to respond to emerging needs. This institutional change is requiring increased coordination and communication between transportation professionals. There is also significant restructuring occurring in the private sector. Deregulation: Decreased government oversight of both passenger and freight transportation services is reducing the need for transportation profession- als in some areas and is redefining the skills needed by transportation professionals in other areas. Internationalism: Transportation professionals in all areas increasingly need a global perspective and an understanding of international trends and events to effectively discharge their responsibilities. EDUCATIONAL NEEDS Transportation professionals require education and training in the eight general areas identified in the, following to effectively meet tomorrow's challenges. To the extent that existing educational programs fail to meet these needs, transportation agencies will face a shortage of graduates with the requisite skills. 1. Broad-based education: The transportation profes- sional must have the flexibility to adapt to new and changing circumstances. This can be fostered
288 through exposure to a broad curriculum with strong emphasis on the fundamentals. Communication skills: Excellent writing and speaking skills are required for the professional to communicate problem definitions and solutions and foster implementation of those solutions. Computer skills. The professional must be comfort- able with the application of computer technology to transportation problem solving. Analytical skills: Transportation programs have traditionally emphasized development of skills in technical analysis. This traditional emphasis is still needed, but the transportation professional must also be proficient in areas such as economics, statistics, finance, marketing, and cost analysis. Strategic thinking: Strategic thinking might also be defined as problem solving or an implementation orientation. In other words, the professional must be able to identify the correct problem, define it properly, and develop solutions that are sensitive to timing, politics, and other realities of implementation. Entrepreneurship: The transportation professional must cultivate the ability to identify opportunities and create organizations and mechanisms to seize those opportunities and develop effective programs and projects. Group dynamics: The professional must be knowledge- able of organizational behavior and the dynamics of groups of all sizes and at all levels. He or she must have the interpersonal skills required for consensus building and similar activities required to solve challenging and complex problems. Global perspective: Increasingly, transportation problems and solutions transcend national boundaries. The transportation professional must be sensitive to and aware of global trends and the international implications of transportation decisions. In summary, there is a dynamic tension between the transportation professional's need for a broad education and one that is also highly specialized. Developing the education and training programs to meet these needs will require the best efforts of transportation educators. Attracting and motivating the new graduates who have these skills and providing them with rewarding career
289 paths provide clear challenges to the employers of trans- portation professionals. EDUCATIONAL PROGRAMS No single type of program can provide all of the educa- tion and training needed by tomorrow's transportation professionals. Meeting these requirements will require utilization of all available forms of programs, including Degree programs at colleges and universities; Certificate programs at 2- and 4-year colleges and vocational-technical institutes; Continuing-education programs, including short courses, workshops, and seminars offered by educa- tional institutions and other qualified providers; Meetings and activities of professional societies; In-house training courses developed and offered by employers; and On-the-job training. EDUCATIONAL BARRIERS The conference participants pointed to several problems believed to be particularly significant as potential barriers to meeting future educational needs. Declining enrollments: Reduced enrollments in transportation programs signal to academic adminis- trators that there is no need to devote significant resources to transportation. In addition, there are few problems in transportation education and training that could not be helped by a sustained increase in student enrdllments. Rigid curricula: Transportation programs exist primarilyin schools of engineering anbusiness and must meet stringent criteria to retain accreditation. This greatly constrains the ability of transportation educators to modify curricula to meet future needs. Outdated and unresponsive curricula: Most current transportation curricula were developed to respond to educational needs identified 10 to 20 years ago. Most curricula have not been updated to respond to today's educational requirements.
290 4. Deteriorating facilities: Transportation is a specialized technical pursuit, and practice in the field has evolved to take advantage of emerging technologies. As in other technical fields, educa- tional institutions have not been able to keep up with industry and government in acquiring the latest technology. Also, the entire educational infra- structure is deteriorating and requires major refurbishing. RECOMMENDATIONS No single concise set of recommendations can cover all of the diverse needs and problems in transportation education and training. By following a few general recommendations, outlined in the following sections, the transportation profession would do much to meet some of the major challenges. Get the Word Out The challenges and opportunities in transportation are largely unrecognized outside the profession. The nature of these challenges and the rewards of working on them must be communicated to prospective students and to those in a position to influence career choices. Accomplishing this will require the combined efforts of professional societies, universities, and employers, including government. Adapt Traditional Skills to New Challenges Problems of management, maintenance, and rehabilitation of transportation systems can be addressed successfully by the graduates of traditional transportationprograms in engineering, business, and planning. New challenges do not require a new set of professionals but rather a reorientation, and perhaps some retraining, of current professionals. Implementing this concept may require transportation agency management to reconsider current job descriptions and activity assignments.
291 Review and Revise Transportation Curricula The finding that many existing programs are outdated and unresponsive implies that the ongoing process of program review and revision must be accelerated. This will enable program graduates to contribute significantly to solving today's problems, thereby enhancing the demand for additional graduates. Encourage Programs for Women and Minorities Programs that have been developed to increase the partic- ipation of women and minorities in the transportation profession should be continued and enhanced. This should include support for programs at both minority and main- stream institutions. Increase Interaction Between Educational Programs and Government and Industry Such interaction will greatly increase the relevance of transportation education and training and will promote recognition by government and industry that education and training can make a real contribution toward meeting their needs. A tremendous variety of beneficial inter- action mechanisms are available and the prospect of the enactment of the Strategic Highway Research Program will greatly enhance these opportunities. Reward Employee Professional Development The ever-changing nature of the challenges in transpor- tation requires a lifelong commitment to learning new. techniques and ways to solve new problems. Employees who acquire these skills must be rewarded for the value of the contributions that they make. Transportation agencies must also consciously maintain an environment in which employee initiative is encouraged and rewarded. Preserve Strong University Research Although training offers significant opportunities for transportation agencies to meet their professional needs,
292 the nation's universities and colleges will continue to be the supplier of new professionals to the transporta- tion industry. However, serious problems often hamper, and in the future could impair, the ability of educa- tional institutions to produce these professionals. Declining enrollments in transportation-related programs have created a significant shift in university resources away from these programs to the more popular programs, usually computer science and electrical engineering. Outdated facilities and equipment are, in some cases, providing students with an education that is no longer relevant to professional practice. And perhaps most important, as research funds in the public sector become more scarce, universities will be unable to support faculty and students or will turn to private-sector sources, which will change the focus and subsequent job interest of new transportation professionals. It appears clear that for the future viability of public-sector transportation, it is essential that sufficient research opportunities exist not only to advance the status of knowledge in transportation but also to educate future transportation professionals, who are central to the economic well-being of the nation.
Study Committee Biographical Information LESTER A. HOEL, Chairman, is Hamilton Professor and Chairman of the Department of Civil Engineering at the University of Virginia. He holds a bachelor's degree in civil engineering from the City College of New York, a master's in civil engineering from the Polytechnic Insti- tute of New York, and a doctorate from the University of California at Berkeley. His previous positions include Assistant Professor of Engineering, San Diego State College, 1962-1964; Fulbright Research Scholar, Institute of Transport Economy, Oslo, Norway, 1964-1965; Principal Engineer, Wilbur Smith and Associates, 1965-1966; and Professor of Civil Engineering and Associate Director, Transportation Research Institute, Carnegie-Mellon University, 1966-1974. Dr. Hoel is a registered profes- sional engineer in California, Pennsylvania, and Virginia and a fellow of the Mierican Society of Civil Engineers. He was Chairman of the Division A Council of the Trans- portation Research Board from 1982 to 1986 and is currently a member of the Executive Committee (Vice- Chairman, 1985-1986). He is a member of Chi Epsilon, Tau Beta Pi, Sigma Xi, and the American Society for Engi- neering Education. NOEL C. BUFE is a safety and law enforcement specialist, currently Director of the Traffic Institute at North- western University. Dr. Bufe received his B.S., M.S., and Ph.D. from Michigan State University. He began his career in law enforcement as an air police officer with the U.S. Air Force in 1957. In 1960 he became office manager and security investigator with the J.L. Hudson Company in Detroit, and in 1962 he was a research inves- tigator at Wayne State University. For the next 5 years he held positions as administrative assistant to the 293
294 secretary and procedure analyst for the Board of Police Commissioners, city of St. Louis; instructor at the American University School of Police Administration; management consultant for the International Association of Chiefs of Police; and Executive Secretary, Michigan Law Enforcement Officers Training Council. From 1967 to 1974 he served as Executive Director of the Governors' Highway Safety Representatives for the state of Michigan, from 1974 to 1975 as Deputy Administrator for the Nation- al Highway Traffic Safety Administration, and from 1975 to 1978 as Administrator of the Office of Criminal Justice Programs for the state of Michigan. Dr. Bufe is a member of the National Sheriffs Association, and the International Association of Chiefs of Police, and the National Safety Council. He is on the Board of Direc- tors, National Safety Council and the Chairman of the Highway Division, National Safety Council. LAWRENCE N. DALLAN is Transportation Manager, Houston- Galveston Area Council, Houston, Texas. He holds a B.S. and M.S. from the University of Missouri and a Ph.D. from Oklahoma State University. He has been a structural engineer with Howard, Needles, Tammen, Bergendoff in Cleveland, 1955-1957; Assistant and Associate Professor of Civil Engineering, University of Missouri, 1957-1970; head of the Planning Department at Howard, Needles, Tammen, Bergendoff in Minneapolis, 1970-1973; and Direc- tor of Transportation Planning, Twin Cities Metro Coun- cil, St. Paul, Minnesota, 1973-1985. He is a member of the Society of Sigma Xi and the American Planning Asso- ciation, and is a registered professional engineer in the states of Minnesota and Missouri. WARREN G. DAVISON is County Engineer for Cerro Gordo County, Iowa. After receiving a B.S. from Iowa State University, Mr. Davison became Assistant County Engineer for Hamilton County, Iowa, 1953-1955, and then County Engineer for Emmet County, Iowa, 1956-1960. He is a member of the National Association of County Engineers, the National Association of Counties, the Iowa Engineers Association, and the Iowa County Engineers Association. MORTIMER L. DOWNEY is Chief Financial Officer of the New York Metropolitan Transit Authority. He received his B.S. from Yale University and a Master of Public Admin- istration from New York University. He has been a trans- portation planner for the Port Authority of New York and
295 New Jersey, 1958-1975; a budget priorities analyst for the Committee on the Budget, U.S. House of Representa- tives, 1975-1977; and Assistant Secretary for Budget and Programs, U.S. Department of Transportation, 1977-1981. He is a member of the American Society for Public Administration. MARK G. GOODE is Engineer-Director of the Texas State Department of Highways and Public Transportation. After receiving a B.S. in civil engineering from Texas A&M University, he served in various engineering capacities for the department from 1947 to 1980 at which time he became Engineer-Director. He is a member of the American Society of Civil Engineers and the National Society of Professional Engineers. He serves on the Executive and Policy Committee of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. In 1984 he received AASHTO's MacDonald Award, the highest award presented by AASHTO. He is also past-president of the Western Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. DELON HAMPTON is President of Delon Hampton and Asso- ciates and Professor of Civil Engineering at Howard University. He holds a B.S. from the University of Illinois and an M.S. and Ph.D. from Purdue University. Positions he has held include Assistant Professor, Kansas State University, 1961-1964; Associate Research Engineer, Eric H. Wang Civil Engineering Research Facility, 1962- 1963; Senior Research Engineer, lIT Research Institute, 1967-1968; and President of Gnaedinger, Baker, Hampton and Associates, 1972-1974. Dr. Hampton is a member of the American Consulting Engineers Council, the American Public Transit Association, the American Road and Trans- portation Builders Association, the American Society for Engineering Education, the Waterworks Association, the American Society of Civil Engineers, the American Society for Testing and Materials, the International Society for Soil Mechanics and Foundation Engineering, the Washington Society of Professional Engineers, the Society of Ameri- can Military Engineers, and the Western Society of Engineers. DONALD R. HOWERY is General Manager of the Department of Transportation, city of Los Angeles. He holds a B.S. from the University of Southern California. From 1948 to 1979 he worked as an engineer for the city of Los
296 Angeles. Mr. Howery belongs to the American Society of Civil Engineers, the American Public Works Association, and the Institute of Transportation Engineers. CHRISTINE M. JOHNSON is Senior Transportation Planner, Port Authority of New York and New Jersey. She has a B.A., master's in urban planning and policy, and Ph.D. from the University of Illinois. Dr. Johnson has been Assistant Professor, School of Urban Sciences, University of Illinois, 1979; Director of Transportation Operating Analysis and Chief of Regional Systems Analysis, Chicago Area Transportation Study, 1979-1981; Director of Market- ing, Checker Taxi, Chicago, 1981-1982; Assistant Director of Research, America Public Works Association, 1982-1983; and Director of Research and Secretary of the Institute for Transportation, American Public Works Association, 1983-1984. She is a member of the American Public Works Association, the American Institute of Planners, the Transportation Research Forum, the Institute of Traffic .Engineers, and the National Association of Varipool Operators. JOHN B. KEMP has been Secretary of Transportation at the Kansas Department of Transportation since August 1979. He received a B.A. from the University of Montana and a B.S. and M.S. from Iowa State University. He was Instructor of Engineering, Iowa State University, 1946- 1948; Civil Engineer, Corps of Engineers, Fort Peck, Montana, 1948-1949; Engineer, Ames Engineering and Testing Services, Ames, Iowa, 1949; Engineer, Bureau of Public Roads, St. Paul, Minnesota, Bismark, North Dakota, Frankfurt, Kentuck from 1949-1967; Chief, Systems and Locations Division, Bureau of Public Roads, 1967-1968; and Regional Federal Highway Administrator, FHWA, Kansas City, 1968-1979. He is a member of the American Society of Civil Engineers and the Kansas Society of Professional Engineers. MICHAEL D. MEYER is Director, Bureau of Transportation Planning and Development, Massachusetts Department of Public Works. He has a B.S. from the University of Wisconsin, an M.S. from Northwestern University, and a Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. From 1978 to 1983 he was Associate and Assistant Profes- sor of the Department of Civil Engineering at Massachu- setts Institute of Technology. He is a member of the American Society of Civil Engineers, the American Society
297 for Public Administration, and the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials and Chair- man of the Transportation Research Board Committee on Transportation Education and Training. He was chairman of a Transportation Research Board Specialty Conference on Future Direction of Transportation Education and Training. FRED D. MILLER, an economist, is Director of the Oregon Department of Transportation. His B.S. is from Portland State University and Ph.D. from Michigan State. His previous positions include Assistant Professor of Econom- ics, Oregon State University, 1967-1972; Fuibright Lecturer, Technical University, Piura, Peru, 1968-1969; Visiting Assistant Professor, Chapman College, World Campus Afloat, 1970, 1971, 1974; Consultant, Oregon State Highway Division, 1972-1974; Special Assistant to the Director, Oregon Department of Transportation, 1974-1976; Director, Oregon Department of Energy, 1976-1979; and Assistant Director for Administration, Oregon Department of Transportation, 1979-1982. He is a member of the Western Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. JOHN F. POTTS is Assistant General Manager for Adminis- tration of the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority. He has a B.A. from Harvard University. He was Project Manager, Alan V. Voorhees and Associates, 1968-1971; Senior Vice President and Regional Vice Presi- dent, ATE Management and Service Company, Inc., 1971- 1982; and Director, Department of Transportation for the City of Detroit, 1982-1983. ORREN E. REAMES is Deputy Director for Administration and Finance at the California Department of Transporta- tion. From 1956 to 1983 he has held numerous engineering and administrative assignments at Caltrans including Executive Assistant to the Chief Engineer and Branch Chief of the department. He is a member of the Interna- tional Right-of-Way Association, the American Road and Transportation Builders Association, and the American Management Association. MARSHALL F. REED, Jr., a transportation engineer, is with the Highway Users Federation. He is currently involved in evaluation of individual state highway programs. After receiving his B.S. from Duke University, he held
298 positions as Project Engineer with Charles A. Maguire Associates, 1957-1960; Senior Transportation Planning Engineer with the Penn-Jersey Transportation Study, 1960- 1963; and Transportation Engineer with the Automotive Safety Foundation, 1963-1970. He is a member of the American Society of Civil Engineers and received the Harland Bartholomew Award in 1983 for his leadership in renovating the nation's infrastructure. ROGER P. SNOBLE, a transit planner, is General Manager of the San Diego Transit Corporation. He holds a B.S. and an M.A. from the University of Akron. From 1971 to 1973 he was Director of Schedules and Research at the Metropolitan Regional Transit Authority in Akron, Ohio, and from 1973 to 1979 he was Assistant General Manager, Manager of Transit Services, and Manager of Planning and Scheduling with the San Diego Transit Corporation. HOWARD P. TUCKMAN, a labor economist, is Distinguished Professor of Economics at Memphis State University. He received a B.S. from Cornell University and an M.A. and Ph.D. from the University of Wisconsin. Dr. Tuckman previously was a budget analyst for the Office of Manage- ment and Budget, 1963-1965; Visiting Professor, Technical University of Denmark, 1967-1968; Associate and Assistant Professor of Economics, Florida State University, 1970- 1976; Economic Policy Fellow, Brookings Institute and Office of the Secretary of the Department of Health, Education and Welfare, 1976-1977; Executive Director, Tax Reform Commission, State of Florida, 1979; and Director, Center for Study of Education and Tax Policy, and Professor of Economics, Florida State University, 1976-1979. His association memberships include the American Economic Association, Southern Economic Associa- tion and Eastern Economic Association, Lambda Alpha, and the American Association of Higher Education. FRANCIS C. TURNER was an administrator for the Federal Highway Administration from 1969 to 1972. He holds a B.S. from Texas A&M College. Formerly he was a transpor- tation engineer with FHWA specializing in the development of a computerized system for projecting internal manpower needs, employee ages, years of service, retirement dates, etc. From 1954 to 1955 he was Executive Secretary of the President's Advisory Committee on the National High- way Program and a participant in a joint study by the American Roads and Transportation Builders Association
299 and the Highway Users Federation of equipment, material, and manpower needs for construction of initial phases of the Interstate system. CHARLEY V. WOOTAN is Director of the Texas Transportation Institute. After receiving a B.S. in Agricultural Admin- istration and Agricultural Economics and an M.S. and a Ph.D. in Agricultural Economics from Texas A&M Univer- sity, he spent 3 years in private industry in New York and Denver. He joined TTI as Associate Research Econo- mist and Project Leader, advanced through the Institute to Program Coordinator, became Division Head and then Associate Director, and in 1967 was named Director-. He was Chairman of the Transportation Research Board Group I Council from 1975 to 1978, a member of the Executive Committee from 1979-1982, and Chairman of the Executive Committee during 1980. He currently serves as Chairman of TRB's Group 5 Council. A
The Transportation Research Board is a unit of the National Research Council, which serves the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering. The Board's purpose is to stimulate research concerning the nature and performance of transportation systems, to disseminate the information produced by the research, and to encourage the application of appropriate research findings. The Board's program is carried out by more than 270 committees, task forces, and panels composed of more than 3,300 administrators, engineers, social scientists, attorneys, educators, and others concerned with transportation; they serve without compensation. The program is sup- ported by state transportation and highway departments, the modal administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, the Association of American Railroads, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation. The National Research Council was established by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and of advising the federal government. The Council operates in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy under the authority of its Congressional charter, which establishes the Academy as a private, nonprofit, self-governing membership corporation. The Council is the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engi- neering in the conduct of their services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. It is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by Act of Congress as a private, nonprofit, self-governing membership corporation for the furtherance of science and technology, required to advise the federal government upon request within its fields of competence. Under its corporate charter, the Academy established the National Research Council in 1916, the National Academy of Engineering in 1964, and the Institute of Medicine in 1970.
dil s1r/ 1 / NSPORTiIO7(RESEARCH!BOARD I 1pg1 I Washington, DTC. 20418 .' JAID WASI-IINGTON, D.C. PERMIT N018 ADDRESS CORRECTION REQUESTED . --
