CCSP-5 U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM
CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products
January 2006
According to the National Research Council, “an essential component of any research program is the periodic synthesis of cumulative knowledge and the evaluation of the implications of that knowledge for scientific research and policy formulation.” The U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) will help meet that fundamental need through a series of 21 “synthesis and assessment” (S&A) products. A key component of the CCSP Strategic Plan (released July 2003), they will integrate research results focused on important science issues and questions frequently raised by decision makers.
The S&A products will support informed discussion and decisions by policymakers, resource managers stakeholders, the media, and the general public. They also will help define and set the future direction and priorities of the program. The products help meet the requirements of the Global Change Research Act of 1990. The law directs agencies to “produce information readily usable by policymakers attempting to formulate effective strategies for preventing, mitigating, and adapting to the effects of global change” and to undertake periodic scientific assessments.
Designated CCSP agencies or departments will take the lead in generating each S&A product. The CCSP also will continue to participate in the principal international science assessments, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report scheduled for completion in 2007, and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)/United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) assessments of stratospheric ozone depletion and associated environmental impacts.
The CCSP Strategic Plan sets forth general principles for the S&A products:
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Analyses structured around specific questions
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Early and continuing involvement of stakeholders
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Explicit treatment of uncertainties
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Transparent public review of analysis questions, methods, and draft results
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Flexible approach, building on lessons learned.
As the CCSP progresses with the S&A products, it will learn from experience and adjust its approach accordingly.
To help ensure adherence to those principles, the program has published guidelines for producing the S&A products. These guidelines establish a broadly standardized methodology that will facilitate involvement of the research community and the public; ensure focused and useful products; and meet the highest standards of scientific excellence. The guidelines also encourage transparency by providing public access to information about the status of the products through the Federal Register, the CCSP web site, and other means. The guidelines address three steps required to produce S&A products:
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Developing a prospectus
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Drafting and revising the document
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Final approval and publication of each product.
The guidelines set forth the roles of participants and the steps in the process (see page 2).
The first S&A product—Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences—will be issued by CCSP in early 2006. Others are in various stages of development. For more information on the products, process, and schedule, visit the Synthesis and Assessment products portion of the CCSP web site at <www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/>.
INFORMATION QUALITY ACT (IQA) AND FEDERAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE ACT (FACA) The S&A products are subject to the IQA and most also fall under FACA. Each product must meet the IQA guidelines of the lead agency responsible for the product. In particular, the lead agency must ensure compliance with peer review requirements established under IQA for “highly influential scientific assessments.” This requires producing and implementing a peer review plan for each product. Where a product falls under FACA, the lead agency forms an advisory committee to which authors are appointed. The lead agency produces a draft charter outlining the committee’s mission and specific duties. The charter is made available for public review, and subsequently a final charter is produced by the lead agency and approved by the CCSP Interagency Committee. Each FACA committee must adhere to its charter and must:
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STEPS OF THE PROCESS1
Planning the Process and Preparing a Prospectus
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The lead and supporting agencies solicit input from users and other stakeholders, plan preparation of the product, and summarize the proposed process in a draft prospectus.
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The CCSP Interagency Committee reviews and approves the draft prospectus for public comment.
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Expert reviewers and stakeholders review the draft prospectus over a period of at least 30 days.
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Lead and supporting agencies revise the draft prospectus and finalize recommendations for individuals to serve as authors.
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The CCSP Interagency Committee approves the revised prospectus.
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The CCSP Office posts the draft prospectus comments and the final prospectus on the CCSP web site.
Additional Stakeholder Interactions, if Needed
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Lead authors may solicit additional input from users and other stakeholders to assist in the development of the product. The process for soliciting additional input is open and is described in the prospectus. The results from additional stakeholder interactions are publicly available in summary or more extensive forms through publication on the CCSP web site.
Drafting/Reviewing the Products
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Lead authors prepare the first draft, including a technical section and a summary for interested non-specialists.
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The lead and supporting agencies organize and facilitate an expert peer review of the first draft. All comments submitted during the expert peer review are publicly available.
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Lead authors prepare the second draft of the product.
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The CCSP Office posts the second draft for public comment for not less than 45 days. All comments are publicly available.
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The lead authors prepare a third draft of the product.
Approving, Producing, and Releasing the Products
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Lead agencies certify that the product complies with the Information Quality Act, and submit the third draft and comments received to the CCSP Interagency Committee.
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If the CCSP Interagency Committee review determines that no further action is needed, the product is submitted to the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) for approval. Otherwise, the Committee’s comments are sent to the lead and supporting agencies for consideration and resolution by lead authors.
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If needed, the National Research Council (NRC) can be asked to provide additional scientific analysis.
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Once any remaining concerns are addressed, the CCSP Interagency Committee submits the final draft to NSTC for review and approval. Approval requires the concurrence of all Committee on Environment and Natural Resources (CENR) members.
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Once NSTC approval has been obtained and the product is finalized, the lead agencies produce and release the completed product.
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The CCSP Office widely disseminates the product through its web site and other mechanisms.
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A more detailed description is available on the CCSP Web site at <http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap-guidelines.htm>. |
PARTICIPANTS AND THEIR ROLES CCSP Interagency Committee CCSP’s Interagency Committee is chaired by the CCSP Director (DOC appointee) and includes representatives of 13 participating departments/ agencies that have mission or funding responsibilities in climate and global change research:
The committee also includes liaisons from the Executive Office of the President (EOP). Membership on the CCSP Interagency Committee is joint with the Subcommittee on Global Change Research (SGCR) of the Committee on Environment and Natural Resources (CENR) of the President’s National Science and Technology Council (NSTC). Lead Agencies/Departments A single CCSP agency or department will take the lead in producing each product. Among the lead agency’s responsibilities is ensuring compliance with the Information Quality Act (PL 106-554, §515 (a)). Each S&A Product must meet the lead agency’s Information Quality Guidelines. In so doing, lead agency must ensure compliance with peer review requirements. The lead agency also is responsible for ensuring that the report is produced in accordance with the Federal Advisory Committee Act. Lead and Contributing Authors Lead and contributing authors are individuals with appropriate technical expertise. They may be citizens of any country and be drawn from within or outside the Federal government. Lead authors are responsible for producing the S&A reports. Federal Advisory Committee Act (FACA) Committees If FACA is applicable to a particular product, a FACA committee is formed. In general, if non-Federal scientists serve as lead authors, the authors are constituted as an advisory committee under the Federal Advisory Committee Act. After substantive deliberations on the product, the committee submits the finished report to the lead agency. Interagency Working Groups The CCSP’s research-oriented interagency working groups (IWGs) consist of agency program managers who have budget authority within their agencies to implement CCSP research programs. IWGs may help the lead agencies with any product-related task. Current IWGs focus on Atmospheric Composition, Climate Variability and Change, Global Water Cycle, Land-Use/Land-Cover Change, Global Carbon Cycle, Ecosystems, Human Contributions and Responses to Global Change, Decision Support, Modeling, Observations and Monitoring, International, and Data Management. Expert Reviewers Expert reviewers are scientists or individuals selected by the lead agencies/ departments based on expertise, balance, and independence criteria. In accrediting the experts, the lead agencies/departments ensure that there is no perceived conflict of interest. Reviewers may be citizens of any country and be drawn from within or outside the Federal government (e.g., universities or other public or private sector organizations). Stakeholders Stakeholders are individuals or groups whose interests (financial, cultural, value-based, or other) are affected by climate variability, climate change, or options for adapting to or mitigating these phenomena. Stakeholders participate during the “scoping” process by providing information that helps define the audience and potential uses of a product. In addition, stakeholders provide comments on the prospectus, and on the product during the public comment period. National Research Council The National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council will provide advice on an as-needed basis to the lead agencies. The NRC may be asked to provide additional scientific analyses to help bound the uncertainty associated with these issues. National Science and Technology Council The NSTC is responsible for final review and approval. Approval will require written concurrence from all members of the NSTC’s Committee on Environment and Natural Resources, which consists of 15 agency and department representatives on the Assistant Secretary or Deputy Assistant Secretary level. The committee also includes liaisons from the Executive Office of the President, and other Executive organizations, departments, and agencies as the co-chairs may, from time to time, designate. |
Summary of Synthesis and Assessment Products* |
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CCSP GOAL 1 |
Extend knowledge of the Earth’s past and present climate and environment, including its natural variability, and improve understanding of the causes of observed changes |
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Product 1.1 |
Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere: steps for understanding and reconciling differences |
NOAA |
Product 1.2 |
Past climate variability and change in the Arctic and at high latitudes |
USGS |
Product 1.3 |
Re-analyses of historical climate data for key atmospheric features: implications for attribution of causes of observed change |
NOAA |
CCSP GOAL 2 |
Improve quantification of the forces bringing about changes in the Earth’s climate and related systems |
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Product 2.1 |
Scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric concentrations and review of integrated scenario development and application |
DOE |
Product 2.2 |
North American carbon budget and implications for the global carbon cycle |
NOAA |
Product 2.3 |
Aerosol properties and their impacts on climate |
NASA |
Product 2.4 |
Trends in emissions of ozone-depleting substances, ozone layer recovery, and implications for ultraviolet radiation exposure and climate change |
NOAA |
CCSP GOAL 3 |
Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth’s climate and related systems may change in the future |
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Product 3.1 |
Climate models: an assessment of strengths and limitations for user applications |
DOE |
Product 3.2 |
Climate projections for research and assessment based on emissions scenarios developed through the Climate Change Technology Program |
NOAA |
Product 3.3 |
Climate extremes including documentation of current extremes: prospects for improving projections |
NOAA |
Product 3.4 |
Risks of abrupt changes in global climate |
USGS |
CCSP GOAL 4 |
Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed ecosystems and human systems to climate and related global changes |
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Product 4.1 |
Coastal elevation and sensitivity to sea-level rise |
EPA |
Product 4.2 |
State-of-knowledge of thresholds of change that could lead to discontinuities (sudden changes) in some ecosystems and climate-sensitive resources |
USGS |
Product 4.3 |
Analyses of the effects of global change on agriculture, biodiversity, land, and water resources |
USDA |
Product 4.4 |
Preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources |
EPA |
Product 4.5 |
Effects of global change on energy production and use |
DOE |
Product 4.6 |
Analyses of the effects of global change on human health and welfare and human systems |
EPA |
Product 4.7 |
Within the transportation sector, a summary of climate change and variability sensitivities, potential impacts, and response options |
DOT |
CCSP GOAL 5 |
Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks and opportunities related to climate variability and change |
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Product 5.1 |
Uses and limitations of observations, data, forecasts, and other projections in decision support for selected sectors and regions |
NASA |
Product 5.2 |
Best-practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and incorporating scientific uncertainty in decision making |
TBD |
Product 5.3 |
Decision support experiments and evaluations using seasonal-to-interannual forecasts and observational data |
NOAA |
* The righthand column provides the S&A product lead agency for IQA and FACA purposes. |
This fact sheet was generated by the Climate Change Science Program Office in collaboration with an interagency working group composed of representatives of the 13 Federal agencies participating in the U.S. Climate Change Science Program.
For further information, see <www.climatescience.gov>.