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1 SUMMARY This report is intended to guide the National Science Foundation (NSF) in its lead role in planning and administering ocean climate research within the National Climate Program. Several national and international oceanographic research programs have been proposed to aid in developing our ability to predict natural climate fluctuations. These programs are summarized in this report, and a recommendation on a strategy for NSF in regard to each is presented. The ocean plays a central role in the variability of global climate (see Chapter 2): it is the principal global reservoir of heat and appears to be as important as the atmosphere in the global transport and redistribution of heat. The principal climatic effects on man are produced by the atmosphere, and it is thus atmospheric climatic variations that we seek to predict. However, in order to do this we need to describe and understand the variability of the ocean, its mean state, and its large-scale interactions with the atmosphere. The Interannual Variability of the Tropical Ocean and the Global Atmosphere Program (TOGA), a proposed large-scale ocean-atmosphere experiment (see Chapter 3), would be an exciting opportunity to study a strong natural climate signal, involving, among other things, the Southern Oscillation, the El Nino phenomenon, and wintertime climate anomalies over North America. The economic benefits of predicting these climate anomalies could be great. NSF should support TOGA planning in anticipation of U.S. participation in a large-scale international experiment. The present state of the ocean itself, as well as its variability, must be understood if we are to understand climate. Reliable global observations of the state of the ocean and the time changes of that state are needed. Recent technical developments have made it feasible to consider carrying out a World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE; see Chapter 4) to understand the role of ocean circulation in climate. Planning for WOCE is still in an early stage. NSF should support research to aid in that planning, though the
extent of NSF commitment to WOCE should be determined following a fuller definition of the program. Because the transport and storage of heat by the ocean is central to all theories of the role of the ocean in climate, a number of programs have been proposed to study ocean heat flux (see Chapter 5). One, the Cage experiment, was suggested to examine the long-term mean, the annual cycle, and the interannual variability of the North Atlantic heat flux and to establish the validity of the measurement techniques. After considerable scientific review, it has been decided to propose Cage and other heat flux experiments as parts of WOCE and TOGA rather than as stand-alone programs. Monitoring of the ocean and atmosphere, that is, the collection of regular observations for long periods of time, will be necessary for an ultimate understanding of climate variability (see Chapter 6). There is so far no U.S. commitment to establishing long-term ocean climate monitoring. NSF-supported ocean climate research will need the base of observation that can be provided by monitoring, and NSF should work with other agencies to achieve it. The next steps in developing ocean climate monitoring can be simple ones, such as sea-level observations, exploratory time series, and phantom weather ships. Ocean climate research that falls outside the accepted national and international programs is reviewed (see Chapter 7). NSF should remain flexible enough to support good climate research even when it is outside the "approved" framework. Examples of programs that might be considered are given. The United States can benefit by cooperating with other countries in their climate research programs. Programmatic issues with federal agencies other than NSF and with other countries are reviewed (see Chapter 8). On the national level, a favorable consensus from U.S. oceanographers and a conmitment by capable scientists to participate are needed if these large ocean climate research programs are to go forward. Recommendations for NSF action in its lead federal role are proposed. The report concludes (see Chapter 9) with a summary of the recommendations contained herein for NSF strategy and action.
