Elements Needed to Create High-Ridership Transit Systems: Interim Guidebook (2005)

Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

Appendix B. Annotated Bibliography California Department of Transportation, An Analysis of Public Transportation to Attract Non-traditional Transit Riders in California, CA. Prepared by the California Department of Transportation (April 2003). The researchers conducted market research and analyzed data on factors affecting transit systems’ ridership levels. The report contains a massive data collection effort for multiple transit districts in California regarding operations, services, organization and marketing efforts. Classification and analysis of transit marketing initiatives is included. The report also contains a Transit Marketing Literature Review and Analysis. The researchers noted that external factors play a huge role in determining transit system ridership and can often hinder efforts to increase ridership. These factors include land use patterns, the move towards a 24-7 economy, transit unfriendly development, availability of parking, traffic patterns, and an increasing elderly population. Even if transit agencies are able to devote resources to turning non-riders into regular riders, their efforts might be wasted. This report found that non- riders want the same things out of a transit service that regular riders do: “Reliability, convenience, safety and comfort.” However, non-riders want higher levels of all these things than regular riders do, and at the same time they “are less likely to commit to use transit, even if those higher expectations are met.”1 In collecting data for this report, researchers found it difficult to determine whether the marketing efforts of these agencies actually helped to increase ridership, or whether those increases were a result of some other cause. Unless the agencies conducted survey research specific to their marketing campaigns, the causal relationship cannot be determined. Cambridge Systematics, Inc., TCRP Research Results Digest 4, Transit Ridership Initiative. Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, 1995. This study identifies key factors and initiatives that led to ridership increases at 27 transit agencies between 1991 and 1993. Interviews were conducted with senior staff at these agencies. Based on the findings, a set of research topics was developed that would further explore the types of activities that could contribute to ridership increase efforts. 1 California Department of Transportation, An Analysis of Public Transportation to Attract Non- Traditional Transit Riders in California, p. 42.

TCRP H-32: Interim Guidebook B-2 The study concluded that external forces (e.g., population changes, development trends, regional economic conditions, other public policy decisions) often have a greater impact on ridership than system and service design initiatives. Among internal agency actions, the study found that “Service expansion is a primary factor in the majority of cases where recent ridership increases are largest.”2 The study also concluded that “Most systems experiencing recent ridership increases have increased efforts to target specific market segments and broaden service mix.”3 Cambridge Systematics, Inc., TCRP Research Results Digest 29, Continuing Examination of Successful Transit Ridership Initiatives. National Research Council, 1998. This study reports on factors and initiatives that led to increased ridership at over 50 agencies between 1994 and 1996. It is based on interviews with the transit systems’ managers. Although the study produced some general observations, most of the information was very case-specific. The study concluded that external factors have the most potential to affect ridership including: economic growth, “federal transit operating assistance, and integration of public transportation with other public policy initiatives.”4 In half the systems surveyed, the most important external factor affecting ridership was the decline in federal operating support. “The pace of local economic growth has also been a major factor influencing ridership trends. Strong population and employment growth, slowdowns in regional growth, and downsizing in particular industry sectors or by major employers (e.g., federal government) continue to affect ridership significantly.”5 Another external factor is collaboration with Universities and businesses through government welfare-to-work and education policies. The study found that major ridership increases were nearly always a result of a combination of strategies (not just a single initiative). Specific initiatives that commonly helped to increase ridership included service expansion and route restructuring. 2 Cambridge Systematics, Inc. TCRP Research Results Digest 4, Transit Ridership Initiative, p. 1. 3 Ibid. 4 Cambridge Systematics, Inc. TCRP Research Results Digest 29, Continuing Examination of Successful Transit Ridership Initiatives, p. 1. 5 Ibid., 25.

TCRP H-32: Interim Guidebook B-3 Cambridge Systematics, Inc., TCRP Research Results Digest 69, Evaluation of Recent Ridership Increases. National Research Council, 2005. This study reports on factors and initiatives that led to increased ridership at 28 agencies between 2000 and 2002. It is based on interviews with the transit systems’ managers. Although the study produced some general observations, most of the information was very case-specific. The study concluded that “The most significant ridership increases are generally the result of a combination of initiatives or actions. Seldom does a single initiative result in significant or sustained increases.”6 The study also found that “Among the transit systems examined in the current study, there was no apparent correlation between high ridership organizations and community or system size.”7 Charles River Associates, Inc., TCRP Report 27 - Building Transit Ridership: An Exploration of Transit’s Market Share and the Public Policies That Influence It. Transportation Research Board of the National Academies (1997). This study examined transit’s market share within the travel market and sought to identify public policies that could help maintain or increase ridership. The study included a survey of transit agencies throughout the United States and Canada, eight detailed case studies, and an analysis of the transit industry. The study found that factors outside of the transit agency’s control have the largest effect on ridership. “Transit-side strategies alone are insufficient to achieve a large modal shift,”8 noted the study. Factors such as land use, parking availability, and population density are very important determinants of transit ridership. While the researchers aimed to do quantitative analysis, they did not find that there were sufficient resources or data to do so. However, they were able to produce a few cross-cutting observations about ridership growth. Transit agencies often do not consider ridership growth to be a priority; the focus is on existing customers rather than potential ones. Among those agencies that had successfully implemented ridership-boosting policies, 6 Cambridge Systematics, Inc. TCRP Research Results Digest 69, Evaluation of Recent Ridership Increases, p. 1. 7 Ibid., p. 2 8 Charles River Associates, TCRP Report 27 - Building Transit Ridership: An Exploration of Transit’s Market Share and the Public Policies that Influence It, p. 11.

TCRP H-32: Interim Guidebook B-4 “institutional cooperation (was) often essential.”9 The study also found that policies that make private vehicle use less attractive will have a more positive impact on transit ridership than policies that make transit more attractive. The study concluded that each potential strategy for increasing ridership has tradeoffs and benefits associates with it. The study found no widely applicable solution to the problem. Elmore-Yalch, Rebecca, TCRP Report 36 - A Handbook: Using Market Segmentation to Increase Transit Ridership. Transportation Research Board of the National Academies (1998). This guidebook suggests that using market segmentation can help transit agencies maintain and increase ridership more effectively. Designed as a handbook for transit agencies and planners, the guide covers the issues, procedures, terminology, problems, and strategies associated with market segmentation. The guidebook suggests that recognition of the different segments of the population that make up current and potential transit riders is a key element of high ridership maintenance. This report does not contain statistics or data showing direct correlation between using the market segmentation strategy and increasing ridership. It does have three very well-documented case studies relevant to the use of this strategy. Evans, John, TCRP Report 95, Chapter 9 – Traveler Response to Transportation System Changes: Transit Scheduling and Frequency. Transportation Research Board of the National Academies (2004). This report discussed traveler response and related impacts for changes in scheduling of bus and trail transit. Topics included frequency, service hours, regularization of schedules, and reliability changes. Evaluation of effects was difficult because ridership is often affected by a combination of simultaneous changes. The report concluded that ridership was moderately elastic relative to frequency changes. (There was a ridership elasticity of +0.5, meaning that a .5% increase in ridership occurred for every 1% increase in frequency of service.)10 The greatest increases in ridership were found in middle- to upper-income areas where service was previously infrequent, 9 Ibid., p. 11 10 Evans, John, TCRP Report 95, Chapter 9 – Traveler Response to Transportation System Changes: Transit Scheduling and Frequency, p. 9-4.

TCRP H-32: Interim Guidebook B-5 but was made much more frequent. In more traditional transit areas, increasing frequency did not produce many more riders. The report also examined scheduling and found that the greatest ridership increases occurred in response to easily-remembered and readily available schedules. In surveying riders, the researchers found that the greatest passenger concerns were with dependability and midday/evening frequency. Half to one third of all new riders drawn to transit because of changes in frequency would previously have driven cars to make the trip. Hemily, Brendon, Trends Affecting Public Transit’s Effectiveness: A Review and Proposed Actions. Prepared for the American Public Transportation Association (November 2004). This report identified the challenges public transit agencies face as a result of current societal and economic trends and sought to determine potential actions to persevere through these difficulties. By setting a goal of increasing transit’s effectiveness, transit agencies can make their best effort towards maintaining or increasing ridership. The report suggested that transit agencies set the following three goals for maintaining effectiveness and ridership: a) increase transit’s capacity to meet “the congestion challenge”, b) re-orient service to focus more on the customer’s needs, c) “enhance the transit-community link”. The report also contains specific actions and service concepts that can be implemented to reach these goals. Other suggestions include making public transportation easy-to-use and attractive, involving transportation in the planning process for the community and events, and marketing transportation to specific groups. KFH Group and A-M-M-A, TCRP Report 70, Guidebook for Change and Innovation at Rural and Small Urban Transit Systems. Transportation Research Board of the National Academies (2001). This report focused specifically on rural and small urban public transit systems. The first section of the guidebook attempted to identify the elements that can produce a “culture of innovation” in this type of environment. Examples of such elements are: quality service, focus on the mission, community involvement, staff development and motivation, etc. The second part of the guidebook described many examples of initiatives and innovation at small transit agencies. The initiatives are broadly categorized by focus into the following topics: productivity, efficiency,

TCRP H-32: Interim Guidebook B-6 quality, funding, training, and marketing. Within each category, multiple case studies are presented. In many of these projects, the goal of the innovation was not high ridership, but something else entirely (procure more funding, enhance coordination, etc.) In some cases, though, the projects were oriented towards increasing ridership. Though no broad- reaching conclusions can be drawn, the case studies in these categories provide some good examples of ridership-boosting initiatives. McCollom, Brian and Pratt, Richard, TCRP Report 95, Chapter 12 – Traveler Response to Transportation System Changes: Transit Pricing and Fares. Transportation Research Board of the National Academies (2004). This report documented responses to bus and rail transit changes in fare level, fare structure (including relationships among fare categories), and free transit.11 The objective of transit pricing and fare changes is usually to increase revenue while minimizing ridership loss. Occasionally, a fare reduction or elimination is introduced in the hopes of boosting ridership. The researchers found that on average, ridership had an elasticity of -0.4 for bus transit and -0.18 for rail transit (meaning that a 1% increase in fare revenues produced a .4% loss in bus ridership and a .18% loss in rail ridership).12 The report also found that ridership sensitivity to fares decreased with an increased size of the city. Off-peak ridership was found to be twice as sensitive to fare changes as peak ridership. Decreasing off- peak fares was found to be particularly effective in attracting new riders. The introduction of unlimited-ride passes and prepaid fare cards nearly always produced ridership gains, particularly in large cities with complex systems. Public/private commuter pass programs were consistently found to increase ridership as well. The introduction of fare-free downtown shuttles has produced high ridership in select cities. Overall, the ridership response to fare changes is inelastic, meaning that reducing fare levels will always increase ridership, but an accompanying loss of revenue should always be expected. Multisystems, Inc., et al., Hublink – A Vision for Mobility: Transportation Restructuring Study for Western New York. Prepared for Niagara Frontier Transportation Authority (December 1997). 11 McCollom, Brian and Pratt, Richard, TCRP Report 95, Chapter 12 – Traveler Response to Transportation System Changes: Transit Pricing and Fares, p. 12-1. 12 Ibid., 12-6.

TCRP H-32: Interim Guidebook B-7 This study evaluated the proposed coordinated public transit system for the Buffalo area of Western New York. Market research, community meetings, and a review of “innovative transportation solutions” helped formulate the proposal. In response to changing travel patterns and employment characteristics, the transit agency had to re-examine its operations and priorities in order to maintain ridership and better serve its community. The agency had to shift towards the “family of services” concept. It had to address the need for suburb-to-suburb travel, reverse commuters, and other trips not traditionally well served by transit. The report suggested a network build around hubs in areas of high activity. The hubs are designed to provide seamless integration between different modes of service, connecting strong fixed route service to flexible local connector routes. The report also encouraged the agency to coordinate and collaborate with the community and the private sector, to ensure non- duplication of and equal access to all elements of this family of services. Partners for Advanced Transit and Highways and TranSystems Corp., Assessment of Service Integration Practices for Public Transportation. Prepared for UC Berkeley (December 2004). Through a comprehensive survey of transit agencies, the researchers studied service integration policies and practices and their benefits. Historically, inter-regional transit agencies have operated independently of one another. But as of late, more efforts are being made to coordinate fares, schedules and even operations between agencies. The study was based on the premise that ongoing coordination and integration of transit services can improve connectivity and reliability, enabling transit to attract new riders. Integration practices and policies that most tangibly affect the rider include fare payment, infrastructure, schedule, and information provision. The study hoped to evaluate the effectiveness of different integration procedures and make recommendations based on documented experience. However, the researchers found that ridership impacts and benefits to the customer and the agency were difficult to quantify. The surveying necessary to evaluate the practices was rarely conducted at the time of the integration. Nonetheless, the general perception among agencies is that integration “supports the overall goals of the transit agency and provides substantial benefits to the customer.”13 Many agencies stated increased ridership as a specific goal of the integration. 13 PATH and TranSystems, Inc., Assessment of Service Integration Practices for Public Transportation: A Survey of U.S. Experiences, p. iii.

TCRP H-32: Interim Guidebook B-8 Although agencies encountered some difficulties during the integration process, most found that many perceived barriers to integration either did not exist or were easily surmounted. Pratt, Richard and Evans, John, TCRP Report 95, Chapter 10 – Traveler Response to Transportation System Changes: Bus Routing and Coverage, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies (2004). This report examined the ridership response to changes in bus transit routing, including new systems and routes, expansions and cutbacks in systems, system closures, and increases and decreases in geographic coverage. The researchers found it was relatively easy to quantify relationships based on available information about ridership and route changes (data regularly by transit agencies). The report found that new systems produced an average of 3-5 riders per capita per year.14 For service expansions, ridership had an elasticity of +0.6 to +1.0 (meaning that for a 1% increase in service, ridership increased between 0.6 and 1.0%.)15 Expansions and new systems of the customizable variety (such as hub-and-spoke systems) produced slightly higher ridership than did grid systems. The greatest increases in ridership resulting from service restructuring occurred when there was “an emphasis on high service level core routes, consistency in scheduling, enhancement of direct travel and ease of transferring, service design based on quantitative investigation of travel patterns, and favorable ambient economic conditions.”16 Ridership increases were highest when changes in bus routing and coverage were combined with other rider- friendly changes, such as reduced fares or new buses. Project for Public Spaces, Inc., and Multisystems, Inc., TCRP Report 46 - The Role of Transit Amenities and Vehicle Characteristics in Building Transit Ridership. Transportation Research Board of the National Academies (1999). This study identified different types of passenger amenities and vehicle characteristics and described how they can attract transit ridership. The research consisted of a literature review, interviews, and five detailed case studies. The resulting information was presented in a “handbook” format, 14 Pratt, Richard and Evans, John, TCRP Report 95, Chapter 10 – Traveler Response to Transportation System Changes: Bus Routing and Coverage, p. 10-4. 15 Ibid., 10-5. 16 Ibid., 10-5.

TCRP H-32: Interim Guidebook B-9 designed to help transit agencies identify amenity improvements that could help boost ridership. The study found that amenities can significantly influence whether “transit choice” riders (those who ride transit infrequently) choose to ride. The study estimated that spending $450,000 on amenities for a typical transit system could produce a ridership increase of 1.5% - 3%. Categories of amenities studied included: Improving Waiting Environment (Bus Shelters, Seating, Lighting, Information, Phones, Waste Bins), and Improving Vehicle Environment (Driver Courtesy, Air Conditioning, Information Displays, Seating, Lighting, Lower Floors). The study presented no statistics or hard data showing how improved amenities have increased ridership. However, detailed case studies document examples of transit agencies that have successfully increased ridership through improved amenities. Rosenbloom, S. and Fielding, G. J., TCRP Report 28 - Transit Markets of the Future: The Challenge of Change. Transportation Research Board of the National Academies (1998). This report contains a review of anticipated trends in demographics, geography, technology, society, and the economy and analyzes how they will impact existing transit services. It then seeks to identify potential future transit markets that could result from these trends, and services that would address them. The report suggests that although the trends analyzed would project ever- decreasing ridership, agencies can withstand the pressure and even increase ridership through innovative planning and services. The report lists service concepts that have been “effectively implemented by other transit operators and that have increased ridership”.17 Such services include guaranteed-ride-home programs, fare incentives, neighborhood circulators, park-and-rides, etc. The report concludes that “carefully targeting services to user needs and preferences” is the key to maintaining ridership.18 Taylor, B.; Haas, P.; Boyd, B.; Hess, D.; Iseki, H.; and Yoh, A., Increasing Transit Ridership: Lessons from the Most Successful Transit Systems in the 1990’s. Mineta Transportation Institute at San Jose State University (June 2002). 17 Rosenbloom, S., TCRP Report 28 – Transit Markets of the Future: The Challenge of Change, p. 158 18 Ibid., p. 4.

TCRP H-32: Interim Guidebook B-10 This study examined ridership trends among U.S. transit systems during the 1990’s, including an analysis of the relative effects of internal vs. external factors on ridership growth. The study included a literature review, an analysis of nationwide transit data and trends, a survey of officials from transit agencies that were found to have experienced significant ridership increases in the latter half of the 1990’s, and case studies of a dozen agencies deemed particularly successful at attracting new riders during the study timeframe. The study concluded that, “Although a wide array of factors clearly influence transit patronage, our analysis finds that the most significant factors influencing transit use are external to transit systems.”19 In fact, the researchers found “. . . extraordinarily strong correlations between ridership and three external factors related to economic activity.”20 These factors are wage rates (Real Hourly Wage) and two factors related to GDP (Real GDP and Real GDP per Person). On the other hand, ridership increases were also attributed (by survey respondents) to agency program initiatives and policy changes; these initiatives and changes are documented in the study report. TranSystems Corp. et al., Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority Regional Bus Study. Prepared for Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (September 2003). This study proposed a plan for short-term and long-term improvements to the bus system in the D.C. metro area. The study was completed to determine specific steps to help WMATA reach its goal of doubling bus ridership between the years 2000 and 2025. The study included an examination of ridership data, census data, and information compiled from telephone and onboard surveys. Recommendations for boosting ridership included expanding service hours (to include later nights and weekends), expanding suburban coverage, and improving reliability. The study determined that the greatest opportunity for potential riders was found in the suburbs. About half of the trips these potential riders wanted to make were from one suburb to another, a type of trip not well served by traditional transit. To attract these riders, WMATA was encouraged to introduce more flexible, smaller vehicle services, and to promote an overall “family of services” concept. Other suggestions for reaching new riders included providing 19 Taylor, B. et al., Increasing Transit Ridership: Lessons from the Most Successful Transit Systems in the 1990’s, p. 3. 20 Ibid., p. 3

TCRP H-32: Interim Guidebook B-11 better information, better coordination between modes of service, and priority corridors for rapid bus transit. Turnbull, Katherine and Pratt, Richard, TCRP Report 95, Chapter 11 – Traveler Response to Transportation System Changes: Transit Information and Promotion. Transportation Research Board of the National Academies (2003). This report covered ridership and awareness level responses to mass market information and promotions, targeted market information and promotions, customer information services and real-time transit information dissemination.21 Responses to these campaigns varied widely based on the service being marketed, outside circumstances, and the type of promotion used. While the primary goal of these campaigns is often to increase ridership, evaluation of success is difficult because the required information (very specific ridership and survey data) is rarely available. Promotional and informational campaigns were most successful when they targeted specific populations (based on market research) and addressed specific needs. Mass market information campaigns are more successful at getting current riders to ride transit more often than convincing new riders to begin using transit. Mass market promotions are effective at boosting ridership in the short term, but the results are inconclusive in the long term. Targeted information has a better potential to attract new riders (results showed up to 50% short term ridership increases).22 Targeted promotions have the best chance to increase ridership in both the short and long term, depending on the circumstances. “Individualized marketing”, or promoting service one-on-one, has a very high level of success (an average of 23% ridership increases), but is costly and not common in the United States.23 On the whole, informational/promotional campaigns are a relatively safe investment for transit agencies, as the increased fare revenues they produce usually allow the effort break even, if not produce a profit. Urbitran Associates, Inc., Multisystems, Inc., SG Associates, Inc., and Robert Cervero, TCRP Report 55 - Guidelines for Enhancing Suburban Mobility Using Public Transportation. Transportation Research Board of the National Academies (1999). 21 Turnbull, Katherine and Pratt, Richard, TCRP Report 95, Chapter 11 – Traveler Response to Transportation System Changes: Transit Information and Promotion, p. 11-3. 22 Ibid., 11-6. 23 Ibid., 11-6.

TCRP H-32: Interim Guidebook B-12 This report contains a review of current practices used by suburban transit agencies to enhance mobility. It is focused largely on making improved connections in suburban environments (bus-to-rail, etc.) Many of the report’s key findings are relevant to the goal of increasing ridership. The guidelines suggest that transit agencies should be sure to target markets appropriately and should have a high level of community involvement in their planning process. Attracting “choice” riders will only be successful under the right conditions, which include “private sector involvement and public financial support.”24 Agencies should also try to involve the community on another level by engaging the private sector through advertising, partnerships, etc. Agencies are encouraged to find focal points of activity and all-day trip generators and develop services around these points. They should strive towards seamless integration between local circulators and main routes. Transit agencies are also encouraged to creatively adapt transit service practices to the landscape of their particular area. While seeking to increase ridership, agencies should not neglect to serve the “more traditional markets such as lower income, blue-collar neighborhoods.”25 24 Ibid., 13. 25 Urbitran Associates et al., TCRP Report 55 – Guidelines for Enhancing Suburban Mobility Using Public Transportation, p. 3.