A Comprehensive Development Plan for a Multimodal Noise and Emissions Model (2010)

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CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES .......................................................................................................... ii SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................................ iv CHAPTER 1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 1-1 1.1. Purpose ................................................................................................................................. 1-1 1.2. Scope and Background ......................................................................................................... 1-2 1.3. Developmental Goals ........................................................................................................... 1-4 1.4 Guiding Principles ................................................................................................................ 1-5 CHAPTER 2 Build Requirements .......................................................................................................... 2-1 2.1. Project Objectives and Motivation ....................................................................................... 2-1 2.2. Assumptions and Approximations ....................................................................................... 2-1 2.3. Details of Each Build ........................................................................................................... 2-2 2.4. Other Build Requirements .................................................................................................. 2-10 CHAPTER 3 Project Schedule ............................................................................................................... 3-1 CHAPTER 4 Project Organization ........................................................................................................ 4-1 CHAPTER 5 Stakeholder Input ............................................................................................................. 5-1 CHAPTER 6 Reporting ........................................................................................................................... 6-1 Glossary and Acronym List ............................................................................................................. G&A-1 References ................................................................................................................................................ R-1 Appendices APPENDIX A. Market Research ................................................................................................. A-1 APPENDIX B. Model Design Evaluation ................................................................................... B-1 APPENDIX C. Current States of the Art ..................................................................................... C-1 APPENDIX D. Strategic Plan for Model Ownership and Funding ............................................. D-1 APPENDIX E. Sample Questionnaire ......................................................................................... E-1 APPENDIX F. Alternative Design Concepts ............................................................................... F-1 APPENDIX G. Round 1 Evaluations – Ratings, Scores, and Statistics ...................................... G-1 APPENDIX H. Evaluators’ Comments from Rounds 1 and 2..................................................... H-1 APPENDIX I. Current Air Quality, Dispersion, and Noise Models ..............................................I-1

ii LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES LIST OF FIGURES 1-1 AEDT with linkages to other related FAA/AEE tools................................................................ 1-2 2-1 Simple flow chart of Build phases .............................................................................................. 2-2 4-1 Overall Work Flow as it relates to project organization ............................................................. 4-2 B-1 Round 1 performance and cost rating statistics ....................................................................... B-14 D-1 The Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting: A USDOT-Wide Center ..... D-3 E-1 Simple schematic of multimodal noise and emissions model end state .................................. E-10 F-1 AEDT tool suite overview .......................................................................................................... F-8 F-2 Schematic of IMAGINE/Harmonoise Model ........................................................................... F-24 G-1 Round 1 evaluation performance and cost rating statistics ...................................................... G-12 G-2 Round 1 score statistics ........................................................................................................... G-13 G-3 Distribution of ratings for performance criterion – agency acceptance ................................... G-13 G-4 Distribution of ratings for performance criterion – technical feasibility ................................. G-14 G-5 Distribution of ratings for performance criterion – analytical proficiency .............................. G-14 G-6 Distribution of ratings for performance criterion – scalability ................................................ G-15 G-7 Distribution of ratings for performance criterion – responsiveness ......................................... G-15 G-8 Distribution of ratings for performance criterion – international credibility ........................... G-16 G-9 Distribution of ratings for cost criterion – cost implications ................................................... G-16 LIST OF TABLES 1-1 Noise, Air Quality and Related Models in Use or Developed by Federal Stakeholder Agencies ................................................................................................................. 1-5 B-1 The Modified Pugh Matrix .......................................................................................................... B-2 B-2 Rating Scheme ............................................................................................................................. B-2 B-3 Meaning of the 7 Evaluation Criteria ........................................................................................... B-3 B-4 Proposed Multimodal Noise and Emissions Model Design Criteria Weighting .......................... B-5 B-5 Proposed Multimodal Noise and Emissions Model Design Performance Scoring Scheme ........ B-5 B-6 Proposed Multimodal Noise and Emissions Model Design Cost Scoring Scheme ..................... B-6 B-7 Modified Pugh Matrix for Multimodal Noise and Emissions Model Design Evaluation ............ B-6 B-8 Compiled Value Score Sheet for Multimodal Noise and Emissions Model Designs .................. B-7 B-9 Preliminary Assessment of the Model Design Alternatives ...................................................... B-10 B-10 Median Values from Round 1 Evaluation.................................................................................. B-13 B-11 Pro Statements from the Preliminary Assessments .................................................................... B-15 B-12 Con Statements from the Preliminary Assessments .................................................................. B-17 B-13 Design Elements that Maximize the Most Desirable Attributes and Minimize the Least Desirable Attributes .......................................................................................................... B-20 B-14 Round 2 Evaluation Scores ........................................................................................................ B-23 C-1 Gap Assessment Matrix – Emissions Models .............................................................................. C-3 C-2 Gap Assessment Matrix – Dispersion Models ............................................................................. C-3 C-3 Strengths and Weaknesses of INM, NOISEMAP, and AAM ...................................................... C-4 C-4 Strengths and Weaknesses of TNM, CREATE, HICNOM, RCNM, HSRNOISE, and the Horn Model ................................................................................................ C-6 E-1 Current Thinking on Model Build Sequence ............................................................................. E-13 F-1 Current Thinking on the Model Build Sequence to the End State Design .................................... F-5 F-2 Key Milestones in the Development of the AEDT Expansion End State ................................... F-12 F-3 Key Milestones in the Development of this Model’s Multimodal End State ............................. F-17

iii F-4 Key Milestones in the Development of the Commercially-based Multimodal Model End State ..................................................................................................................................... F-23 F-5 Key Milestones in the Development of the “Build on EC IMAGINE Project” Multimodal End State ................................................................................................................. F-30 G-1 Round 1 Scores - Agency Acceptance ......................................................................................... G-2 G-2 Round 1 Scores - Technical Feasibility ....................................................................................... G-3 G-3 Round 1 Scores - Analytical Proficiency ..................................................................................... G-4 G-4 Round 1 Scores – Scalability ....................................................................................................... G-5 G-5 Round 1 Scores – Responsiveness ............................................................................................... G-6 G-6 Round 1 Scores - International Credibility .................................................................................. G-7 G-7 Round 1 Scores - Cost Implications ............................................................................................. G-8 G-8 Round 1 Scores - Performance Score .......................................................................................... G-9 G-9 Round 1 Scores - Cost Score ..................................................................................................... G-10 G-10 Round 1 Scores - Value Score ................................................................................................... G-11 LIST OF EXHIBITS E-1 Current Thinking on the Multimodal Noise and Emissions Model End State ............................. E-8 E-2 Current Thinking on the Multimodal Noise and Emissions Model Build Sequence ................. E-11 F-1 Existing Calculation Methodologies and Accepted Standards Implemented Within SoundPLAN and CadnaA ........................................................................................................... F-19

iv SUMMARY Transportation hubs are essential to commerce and community activity and an integral part of the surrounding environment. Schools, hospitals, residences, and businesses often exist within the vicinity of airports. Highways and passenger and freight railroad lines lead into and around airports. As a result, rarely does one transportation source dominate the environmental impact in and around the airport. Despite this relatively close proximity, the standard course of action is to qualify airport expansion projects and noise and emissions mitigation decisions using single-modal impact. Availability of a multimodal noise and emissions model would help inform airport and public policymakers charged with evaluating and making decisions on expanding transportation facilities. The purpose of this study is to create a framework for developing a tool that would allow for the assessment of the noise and air quality impacts on the population from each transportation source, assess the total costs and impacts, and assist in the design and implementation of mitigation strategies. This model would enable more efficient use of federal, state, and local funds. In addition to public sector entities, this capability would be made available to airports, airport consultants, and others as a framework for conducting environmental assessments for regulatory, business, and community purposes. The goal of ACRP Project 02-09 is to produce a comprehensive Model Development Plan (MDP) that will guide future development (by others) of a model to facilitate integrated quantification of multimodal noise and emissions, as well as economic analysis of alternative scenarios. The cornerstone of the approach to the MDP is to set forth the end state. The end state is the ultimate objective for the multimodal noise and emissions modeling capability. The end state defines the requirements (databases, input/output processes, algorithms, etc) for multimodal planning at the local, regional, and national levels. Based on a detailed literature review, a gap analysis of existing tools and methodologies, and the collective experience of the research team; a multimodal transportation environmental analysis tool based on simulation architecture (most likely time-step based) was selected as the most desirable end state. As envisioned, the end state must: ● Meet the regulatory and policy requirements of every agency involved in an integrated regional planning process. ● Use a highly modular design so that the model can be: (1) updated as the science behind a specific module is advanced; and (2) coupled with a wide range of other transportation planning tools, such as traffic simulation models. What is the product from the research? The effort has produced a plan that will effectively jump-start the development of a multimodal noise and emissions model. The plan includes: • A rigorously assessed model design. • A multi-phased effort, which each phase resulting in a usable tool, incrementally building towards the desired end state. • Identification of the technical and policy issues to address during development. • The findings of an initial market research with a proposal for further work. • A draft strategic plan for model funding and ownership. Who is the audience or market for this research? Market research performed under this effort identified potential user communities and stakeholders along with their needs, and their reactions to the proposed model design and end state. The