Advanced Practices in Travel Forecasting (2010)

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73 APPENDIX A INTERVIEW PREPARATION GUIDE NCHRP Synthesis 20-05/Topic 40-06 Advanced Practices in Travel Forecasting Interview Preparation Guide Parsons Brinckerhoff is developing a synthesis of advanced practices in travel forecasting under contract with the National Academy of Sciences. The synthesis report will cover a number of topics not easily found in the literature but highly relevant to the contemporary practice of travel forecasting, to include a description of current and emerging advanced models, their demonstrated benefits, implementation issues, and lessons learned. Several brief case studies will be included to illustrate how agencies are overcoming these and other obstacles to advancing the state of practice. We are contacting most of the agencies known to be active in this area to collect information about these topics. This research project will build upon the work—including surveys—already completed as part of Special Report 288: Metropolitan Travel Forecasting: Current Practice and Future Direction. This survey will build upon information already provided, and will focus primarily on the topics listed above. We are interested in learning about your experience with advanced modeling practices, which we broadly define as those beyond the traditional four-step sequential modeling paradigm. These generally include tour-and activity-based travel models, as well as mesoscopic (to include dynamic traffic assignment) and microscopic traffic flow models used in conjunction with regional travel demand models. We are also interested in other advanced models, to include land use-transportation models, freight models, and linkages to statewide or multi-state economic, trade, or transportation models. There is as much innovation in these areas as in travel demand modeling, and in general we are interested in advances beyond those that are considered mainstream and accepted practice over the past two decades. Your participation in this survey is sought to gain your insight, experience, and expectations about these current issues and models. This questionnaire summarizes the issues we wish to explore with you. It is provided in advance of the interview to stimulate thought, but will not be collected as part of the survey. Rather, we will contact you to conduct the interview in person or by telephone, at a time convenient for you. The depth of information we seek to gain lends itself to a conversational survey rather than a self-enumerated questionnaire. While we welcome written comments before or after the survey, the interview process is designed to place the burden of response on us, not you. Please review the topics and notes about each of these issues on the following pages at your earliest convenience. If you have questions or comments about the issues please do not hesitate to contact us. You’ll find the name of the interviewers assigned to you on the letter accompanying this questionnaire.

1. Have you read Special Report 288: Metropolitan Travel Forecasting: Current Practice and Future Direction? If so, please consider the following: a. Were you consulted as part of the survey for this report? b. Which of the summary findings (pages 1–5) do you relate well to, and why? (A copy of these summary findings are attached.) c. Do you disagree with any of the findings? d. Are there any that do not apply to your agency or practice area? e. Three significant obstacles to deploying improved models are summarized on pages 4–5. Which of these are most applicable to you? Are there obstacles that you would add? f. Several recommendations are listed on pages 5-9. Which of these are the most important to you? Which do you feel are the least important? 74

75 2. Please tell us about your institutional settings: a. Who were (are) the champions for moving toward advanced models in your agency? b. What resistance or obstacles did they have to overcome? c. Who were supporters or allies in moving toward advanced models (i.e., colleague, manager or director, department head)? d. What challenges have you faced in gaining acceptance of advanced models among other agencies, consultants, and other stakeholders or users of your models? e. Where did you obtain funding? f. We’d like to obtain information about your expenditures for advanced modeling by year or project. These would include internal staff costs, capital expenditures, consultant contracts, data collection, etc. We will ask for this information during the interview. g. Have you collaborated with academics as part of your work? Why or why not?

76 3. What benefits have you obtained from using advanced models? In this part of the interview we wish to learn how advanced models have enabled you to evaluate policies and investments that traditional models could not approach. Some of the benefits suggested by others include: • Improved model outputs (in terms of accuracy) • Better information for decision-makers • Sensitivity to policies • Improvements to architecture, data management, and transparency Please consider the following questions: a. What are the three largest benefits you have obtained from using advanced models? b. What benefits did you expect to gain but have not? c. Are you aware of benefits that others have obtained but which you have not? d. What benefits do you expect to gain but do not presently have (because your model is still under development, evolving, etc.)? e. Are the benefits you have (or expect to have) obtained worth the cost? f. Do you feel that decision-makers appreciate the benefits? g. Has anyone challenged you about whether you really have obtained benefits from switching to advanced models, or asserted that the benefits were not worth the cost? h. How do you evaluate the success of advanced models? i. What benefits have developers of advanced models claimed but for which you are skeptical?

77 4. Even when the benefits of advanced models are accepted, implementation issues often impede their adoption or productive use. A number of such issues have been raised at recent conferences and in the literature. Several are listed below. Please indicate how significant each of these issues are to you: Not at Some- Very Issue all what much Unsure Data and survey needs Software and hardware Development cost Implementation cost Specification requirements Model calibration Validation and reasonability checks Time required to implement Uncertainty about next steps Perceived complexity Risk associated with new models Staff and skill requirements Consultant versus in-house Transferability issues Inter-agency coordination required Planning/operational issues Model run times Please consider the following questions in addition to the table above: a. What implementation issues are you facing that are not listed above? How important are they? b. Are there any issues that you feel are insurmountable? c. What issues would most benefit from collaboration between agencies?

78 5. The important lessons learned from your work are highly valued. What have you found are the most important things to do—and not to do—when moving toward advanced models? You may use the space below for recording thoughts or ideas that we will discuss further with you during the interview. One question we are particularly interested in is, “if you had it to over again, what would you do differently?”