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101 APPENDIX Freight Model Use Matrix The committee developed the following matrix, onpages 102â103, to focus the conference programcontent and provided it to the breakout groups to facilitate their discussions. This version of the matrix incorporated updates from the committee after the breakout session related to the state of the practice and provided further guidance for breakout groups dis- cussing the state of the art in freight modeling.
102 FREIGHT DEMAND MODELING: TOOLS FOR PUBLIC-SECTOR DECISION MAKING What Decisions in the Public Sector Would Analyses What Variables Do Benefit from Understanding Examples of and Forecasts We Need to Analyze Freight Demand? Applications Are for Whom? and Forecast? Establish a common understanding Trade and transportation Public officials, private Total tons and value, vehicle/ of freight trends and issues forecasts for policy studies industry executives, the public vessel volumes, vehicle/vessel use, operating costs Transportation system development Traffic forecasts for long-range Federal, state, and local Commodity flows by system, for capacity, agility, redundancy transportation plans and invest- executives, planners, vehicle/vessel volumes, vehicle/ ment needs studies legislators vessel use Identify organizational responsibility Traffic forecasts for long-range Federal, state, and local Commodity flows, vehicle/vessel for action transportation plans and invest- executives, planners, volumes, vehicle/vessel use by ment needs studies legislators local versus long distance Transportation facility design Set number of lanes and inter- State and local planners, Commodity flows by facility, change geometrics to accommo- project engineers vehicle/vessel volumes, date expected traffic, set dimen- vehicle/vessel use sions of inland waterway locks Effectiveness of pricing, tax Mode split analysis, demand Federal, state, and local Commodity flows by mode, incentives, and operational elasticity studies executives, planners, vehicle/vessel volumes, vehicle/ strategies for capacity improvement legislators vessel use Allocation of resources for capacity Traffic forecasts for long-range State and local executives, Commodity flows by facility, management (construction, mainte- transportation plans and invest- planners, legislators vehicle/vessel volumes, vehicle/ nance, operations, abandonment) ment needs studies vessel use Set tax rates, tolls, and so forth to Statewide revenue forecasts from State legislators, bond Vehicle/vessel volumes, vehicle/ meet expenses and pay off debt trucking fees, toll road revenue rating services vessel use forecasts Cost allocation to establish equity Traffic loads for infrastructure Federal and state officials Vehicle/vessel volumes, vehicle/ among users or identify sources damage estimates, vehicle miles who set tax rates, tolls, vessel use of costs traveled and fuel consumption and tariffs for revenue forecasts Set vehicle size and weight limits Traffic loads for infrastructure Federal and state officials Vehicle/vessel volumes, vehicle/ and enforcement strategies damage estimates, vehicle miles vessel use traveled and fuel consumption for revenue forecasts Manage exposure and risk, plan Hazmat route designation Federal and state Commodity O-D, commodity responses to security and safety threats transportation officials, state flows by facility, vehicle/vessel and local police, state and volumes, vehicle/vessel use, local planners vehicle/vessel O-D Identify crash reduction and State safety plans Federal and state Vehicle/vessel volumes, vehicle/ mitigation strategies transportation officials, state vessel use, crashes and local police, state and local planners Manage environmental, community, Air quality conformity Federal and state officials Vehicle/vessel volumes, vehicle/ and energy consequences (air quality, analysis, land use impact who approve projects, vessel use, vehicle/vessel O-D noise, invasive species, energy studies federal and state legislators consumption, and demand for transport of energy) Promote economic development Port impact studies State and local executives, Commodity O-D, commodity (transport as a direct employer, planners flows by facility transport to serve logistics and keep or attract employers) Identify opportunities to expand Marketing studies State and local executives, Commodity O-D, commodity markets of places, companies, corporate executives, flows by facility and technologies land developers Understand trade and Bilateral negotiations Federal executives and Commodity O-D, commodity transportation policy (can we legislators flows by facility deliver when deals are made?) NOTE: O-D = originâdestination. Freight Model Use Matrix
103FREIGHT MODEL USE MATRIX What Kinds of How Well Do Models What Are the What Are Value of Getting Models Are Used How Well Do Forecast Responses Issues or Potential the Forecast Right, for Analyses Models Forecast to Policy (What-If) Difficulties with Changes or Costs of Getting and Forecasts? Trends? Scenarios? These Models? Improvements? It Wrong Public acceptance of prob- lems and solutions, loss of credibility if wrong Underestimates of future vol- umes result in inadequate sys- tem capacity, delay, and general economic costs Rational basis for establish- ing public interest, federal role, and so forth Inadequate designs result in future congestion, high cost of replacement Public and industry accep- tance of noncapital capacity enhancement strategies Spend too much on little-used facilities, too little to accom- modate future congestion Credit rating, financial solvency Subsidies that result in effi- cient facility use Subsidies that result in effi- cient facility use Unnecessary loss of life and property Unnecessary exposure of pub- lic to risk Freight-oriented projects disallowed because freight inappropriately represented Public support gained for freight-oriented projects Lost revenues to local busi- nesses from missed oppor- tunities U.S. transport system was overwhelmed by Russian grain deal in 1970s
