National Academies Press: OpenBook

Methodology for Predicting Channel Migration (2004)

Chapter: Appendix C - Beta Testing Results

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Page 206
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C - Beta Testing Results." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2004. Methodology for Predicting Channel Migration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23352.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix C - Beta Testing Results." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2004. Methodology for Predicting Channel Migration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23352.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix C - Beta Testing Results." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2004. Methodology for Predicting Channel Migration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23352.
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Page 208
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix C - Beta Testing Results." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2004. Methodology for Predicting Channel Migration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23352.
×
Page 209
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix C - Beta Testing Results." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2004. Methodology for Predicting Channel Migration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23352.
×
Page 210
Page 211
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C - Beta Testing Results." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2004. Methodology for Predicting Channel Migration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23352.
×
Page 211
Page 212
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C - Beta Testing Results." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2004. Methodology for Predicting Channel Migration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23352.
×
Page 212
Page 213
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C - Beta Testing Results." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2004. Methodology for Predicting Channel Migration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23352.
×
Page 213
Page 214
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C - Beta Testing Results." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2004. Methodology for Predicting Channel Migration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23352.
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C-1 APPENDIX C BETA TESTING RESULTS

C-1 1937 1972 1998 1937-72 1972-98 Univ. of Nottingham 560 1900 1800 1640 920 1700 1060 Ayres Associates 900 2300 1600 3225 1545 793 1782 Mussetter Eng. Inc. 1130 1250 1350 460 1470 1423 1656 Alabama DOT 880 1800 1900 4280 1300 2022 1500 Alaska DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC California DOT 960 2200 1500 2260 1600 692 1846 Georgia DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Maryland DOT 1124 1772 1052 1891 1357 559 1566 Nevada DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Wyoming DOT 1120 2080 1760 2640 1140 1459 1267 City of Austin, TX NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Author 600 2000 1500 2790 1290 923 1490 Mean 909 1913 1558 2398 1328 1196 1521 Standard Deviation 226.9 325 274 1137 222 528 260 1937 1972 1998 1937-72 1972-98 Univ. of Nottingham 3000 1600 1500 2380 1250 1384 1430 Ayres Associates 3000 1400 1400 2830 1260 1400 1455 Mussetter Eng. Inc. 2150 1460 1390 2400 1460 1311 1644 Alabama DOT 1500 1420 1540 2000 1360 1690 1570 Alaska DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC California DOT 2400 1300 1240 2400 1140 1170 1315 Georgia DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Maryland DOT 1328 1056 1064 1662 904 1073 1043 Nevada DOT 1520 2320 1640 2480 1520 855 1754 Wyoming DOT 2160 1420 1600 2480 1160 1825 1289 City of Austin, TX NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Author 1800 1500 1650 2150 1130 1823 1304 Mean 2095 1497 1447 2309 1243 1392 1423 Standard Deviation 622 343 196 334 188 337 215 Table C1. Simple Overlay: Sacramento River Site Radius of Curvature (ft) Migration Distance (ft) 2028 Predicted Radius of Curvature (ft) Evaluator BEND 2 2028 Predicted Radius of Curvature (ft) 2028 Predicted Migration Distance (ft) BEND 1 Radius of Curvature (ft) Migration Distance (ft) Evaluator 2028 Predicted Migration Distance (ft)

C-2 1937 1972 1998 1937-72 1972-98 Univ. of Nottingham NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Ayres Associates 1087 1974 1771 1920 1653 1593 1459 Mussetter Eng. Inc. 1604 1995 1917 2224 1534 1848 1353 Alabama DOT 1608 3052 2627 2423 1568 2144 1809 Alaska DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC California DOT 1584 2332 1811 2000 2011 1210 2319 Georgia DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Maryland DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Nevada DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Wyoming DOT 799 1748 1585 4004 1037 1396 1196 City of Austin, TX NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Author 1328 1876 1549 2077 1812 1172 2091 Mean 1335 2163 1877 2441 1603 1560 1705 Standard Deviation 334 477 393 786 328 381 443 1937 1972 1998 1937-72 1972-98 Univ. of Nottingham NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Ayres Associates 2096 1499 1529 1781 1801 1556 1589 Mussetter Eng. Inc. 2594 1588 1513 2004 1920 1446 1694 Alabama DOT 2608 1859 1493 2482 1758 1072 2028 Alaska DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC California DOT 2975 1488 1427 2304 1899 1357 2190 Georgia DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Maryland DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Nevada DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Wyoming DOT 1996 1465 1539 2441 1893 1623 1623 City of Austin, TX NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Author 2698 1475 1425 1800 1971 1367 2274 Mean 2494 1562 1488 2135 1874 1404 1900 Standard Deviation 375 152 50 315 79 193 302 2028 Predicted Migration Distance (ft) BEND 2 Evaluator Radius of Curvature (ft) Migration Distance (ft) 2028 Predicted Radius of Curvature (ft) 2028 Predicted Migration Distance (ft) Evaluator Radius of Curvature (ft) Migration Distance (ft) 2028 Predicted Radius of Curvature (ft) Table C2. ARCVIEW: Sacramento River Site BEND 1

C-3 1950 1968 1991 1950-68 1968-91 Univ. of Nottingham 538 538 510 50 214 491 229 Ayres Associates 555 562 412 125 265 238 306 Mussetter Eng. Inc. 509 509 440 56 187 354 240 Alabama DOT 559 588 637 108 69 701 88 Alaska DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC California DOT 570 540 430 50 120 287 157 Georgia DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Maryland DOT 376 408 NC 233 NC (pred. for 1980) (pred. for 1980) Nevada DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Wyoming DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC City of Austin, TX NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Author 529 568 461 61 180 321 235 Mean 519 530 482 98 173 399 209 Standard Deviation 66 60 83 67 69 171 76 1950 1968 1991 1950-68 1968-91 Univ. of Nottingham 585 585 577 164 61 709 73 Ayres Associates 555 525 555 95 35 591 39 Mussetter Eng. Inc. 276 364 423 80 62 505 79 Alabama DOT 578 568 588 69 69 617 88 Alaska DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC California DOT 560 560 590 25 50 629 65 Georgia DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Maryland DOT 404 464 NC 136 NC (pred. for 1980) (pred. for 1980) Nevada DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Wyoming DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC City of Austin, TX NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Author 559 541 559 148 74 582 97 Mean 502 515 549 102 59 606 74 Standard Deviation 117 77 63 49 14 67 20 1950 1968 1991 1950-68 1968-91 Univ. of Nottingham 668 691 658 88 248 577 141 Ayres Associates 605 610 625 75 115 643 132 Mussetter Eng. Inc. 617 594 617 41 102 650 131 Alabama DOT 559 696 676 108 88 647 118 Alaska DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC California DOT 620 620 720 50 100 850 130 Georgia DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Maryland DOT 364 424 NC 104 NC (pred. for 1980) (pred. for 1980) Nevada DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Wyoming DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC City of Austin, TX NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Author 674 623 659 147 69 706 90 Mean 587 608 659 88 120 679 124 Standard Deviation 106 90 37 36 64 93 18 BEND 1 Radius of Curvature (ft) Migration Distance (ft) Radius of Curvature (ft) Migration Distance (ft) BEND 3 2021 Predicted Radius of Curvature (ft) 2021 Predicted Migration Distance (ft) 2021 Predicted Radius of Curvature (ft) 2021 Predicted Migration Distance (ft) Migration Distance (ft)Radius of Curvature (ft) Evaluator Evaluator Table C3. Computer Assisted: Minnesota River Site BEND 2 2021 Predicted Radius of Curvature (ft) 2021 Predicted Migration Distance (ft) Evaluator

C-4 1950 1968 1991 1950-68 1968-91 Univ. of Nottingham 872 923 941 27 210 1050 187 Ayres Associates 775 795 610 70 310 397 357 Mussetter Eng. Inc. 755 732 666 100 199 584 256 Alabama DOT 843 813 637 157 314 461 412 Alaska DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC California DOT 880 920 800 0 150 643 196 Georgia DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Maryland DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Nevada DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Wyoming DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC City of Austin, TX NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Author 774 700 598 145 225 465 293 Mean 817 814 709 83 235 600 284 Standard Deviation 55 93 135 63 65 238 89 1950 1968 1991 1950-68 1968-91 Univ. of Nottingham NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Ayres Associates 750 845 865 50 150 888 174 Mussetter Eng. Inc. 705 705 807 88 113 935 144 Alabama DOT 833 764 892 206 39 1088 49 Alaska DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC California DOT 900 730 930 200 100 1191 130 Georgia DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Maryland DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Nevada DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Wyoming DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC City of Austin, TX NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Author 702 635 674 223 165 725 215 Mean 778 736 834 153 113 965 142 Standard Deviation 86 77 100 79 49 181 62 BEND 5 2021 Predicted Radius of Curvature (ft) 2021 Predicted Migration Distance (ft) Evaluator Radius of Curvature (ft) Migration Distance (ft) Migration Distance (ft) BEND 4 Evaluator 2021 Predicted Radius of Curvature (ft) 2021 Predicted Migration Distance (ft) Radius of Curvature (ft) Table C3. Computer Assisted: Minnesota River Site (Cont.)

C-5 1950 1968 1991 1950-68 1968-91 Univ. of Nottingham 550 496 429 94 180 341 234 Ayres Associates 604 532 495 101 144 447 188 Mussetter Eng. Inc. NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Alabama DOT 596 609 652 125 73 708 95 Alaska DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC California DOT 600 518 453 115 157 370 205 Georgia DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Maryland DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Nevada DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Wyoming DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC City of Austin, TX NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Author 534 312 330 196 231 353 301 Mean 577 493 472 126 157 444 205 Standard Deviation 32 110 118 41 58 153 75 1950 1968 1991 1950-68 1968-91 Univ. of Nottingham 539 542 581 95 41 630 53 Ayres Associates 599 559 572 143 43 590 56 Mussetter Eng. Inc. 580 548 582 145 26 625 33 Alabama DOT 587 583 607 75 62 638 81 Alaska DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC California DOT 539 529 553 106 37 584 48 Georgia DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Maryland DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Nevada DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Wyoming DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC City of Austin, TX NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Author 582 532 565 185 32 608 42 Mean 571 549 576 125 40 613 52 Standard Deviation 26 20 18 40 12 22 16 1950 1968 1991 1950-68 1968-91 Univ. of Nottingham 664 641 583 50 138 508 180 Ayres Associates 665 657 666 29 99 678 130 Mussetter Eng. Inc. 669 653 648 40 104 642 136 Alabama DOT 698 684 671 118 82 654 107 Alaska DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC California DOT 655 655 663 34 96 673 125 Georgia DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Maryland DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Nevada DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Wyoming DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC City of Austin, TX NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Author 629 482 611 186 116 779 151 Mean 663 629 640 76 106 656 138 Standard Deviation 22 73 35 63 19 87 25 BEND 3 Evaluator Radius of Curvature (ft) Migration Distance (ft) 2021 Predicted Radius of Curvature (ft) 2021 Predicted Migration Distance (ft) BEND 2 Evaluator Radius of Curvature (ft) Migration Distance (ft) 2021 Predicted Radius of Curvature (ft) 2021 Predicted Migration Distance (ft) Table C4. ARCVIEW: Minnesota River Site BEND 1 Evaluator Radius of Curvature (ft) Migration Distance (ft) 2021 Predicted Radius of Curvature (ft) 2021 Predicted Migration Distance (ft)

C-6 1950 1968 1991 1950-68 1968-91 Univ. of Nottingham 494 678 831 163 190 1031 248 Ayres Associates 834 916 980 12 146 1063 190 Mussetter Eng. Inc. 900 904 953 78 132 1016 172 Alabama DOT 841 875 675 103 340 414 444 Alaska DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC California DOT 848 867 947 67 98 1051 128 Georgia DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Maryland DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Nevada DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Wyoming DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC City of Austin, TX NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Author 811 785 607 123 224 375 292 Mean 788 837 832 91 188 825 246 Standard Deviation 147 91 158 52 86 334 113 1950 1968 1991 1950-68 1968-91 Univ. of Nottingham 866 852 728 102 260 566 339 Ayres Associates 845 862 898 79 167 945 218 Mussetter Eng. Inc. 968 942 905 105 222 856 289 Alabama DOT 737 700 905 225 128 1172 167 Alaska DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC California DOT 915 821 872 207 160 938 209 Georgia DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Maryland DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Nevada DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Wyoming DOT NC NC NC NC NC NC NC City of Austin, TX NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Author 673 514 961 262 365 1544 476 Mean 834 782 878 163 217 1003 283 Standard Deviation 110 153 79 77 87 329 113 NC = Not Completed BEND 5 Evaluator Radius of Curvature (ft) Migration Distance (ft) 2021 Predicted Radius of Curvature (ft) 2021 Predicted Migration Distance (ft) BEND 4 Evaluator Radius of Curvature (ft) Migration Distance (ft) 2021 Predicted Radius of Curvature (ft) 2021 Predicted Migration Distance (ft) Table C4. ARCVIEW: Minnesota River Site (Cont.)

C-7 1937 1972 1998 1937-72 1972-98 Mean 909 1913 1558 2398 1328 1196 1521 Std. Dev. 227 325 274 1137 222 528 260 % SD/M 25 17 18 47 17 44 17 Mean 1335 2163 1877 2441 1603 1560 1705 Std. Dev. 334 477 393 786 328 381 443 % SD/M 25 22 21 32 20 24 26 1937 1972 1998 1937-72 1972-98 Mean 2095 1497 1447 2309 1243 1392 1423 Std. Dev. 622 343 196 334 188 337 215 % SD/M 30 23 14 14 15 24 15 Mean 2494 1562 1488 2135 1874 1404 1900 Std. Dev. 375 152 50 315 79 193 302 % SD/M 15 10 3 15 4 14 16 1950 1968 1991 1950-68 1968-91 Mean 519 530 482 98 173 399 209 Std. Dev. 66 60 83 67 69 171 76 % SD/M 13 11 17 68 40 43 36 Mean 577 493 472 126 157 444 205 Std. Dev. 32 110 118 41 58 153 75 % SD/M 6 22 25 32 37 35 37 1950 1968 1991 1950-68 1968-91 Mean 502 515 549 102 59 606 74 Std. Dev. 117 77 63 49 14 67 20 % SD/M 23 15 12 48 24 11 28 Mean 571 549 576 125 40 613 52 Std. Dev. 26 20 18 40 12 22 16 % SD/M 5 4 3 32 31 4 31 BEND 1 Migration Distance (ft) 2028 Predicted Radius of Curvature (ft) Radius of Curvature (ft) 2028 Predicted Migration Distance (ft) BEND 2 ARCVIEW SIMPLE OVERLAY Method Table C5. Summary of Beta-Test Results. SIMPLE OVERLAY VS. ARCVIEW TECHNIQUE: Method SACRAMENTO RIVER SITE Migration Distance (ft) 2028 Predicted Radius of Curvature (ft) 2028 Predicted Migration Distance (ft) Radius of Curvature (ft) SIMPLE OVERLAY ARCVIEW BEND 1 Method 2021 Predicted Radius of Curvature (ft) 2021 Predicted Migration Distance (ft) Radius of Curvature (ft) COMPUTER ASSISTED ARCVIEW Migration Distance (ft) BEND 2 Method Migration Distance (ft)Radius of Curvature (ft) COMPUTER ASSISTED ARCVIEW COMPUTER ASSISTED (POWERPOINT) OVERLAY VS. ARCVIEW TECHNIQUE: MINNESOTA RIVER SITE 2021 Predicted Radius of Curvature (ft) 2021 Predicted Migration Distance (ft) 1950 1968 1991 1950-68 1968-91 Mean 587 608 659 88 120 679 124 Std. Dev. 106 90 37 36 64 93 18 % SD/M 18 15 6 42 54 14 15 Mean 663 629 640 76 106 656 138 Std. Dev. 22 73 35 63 19 87 25 % SD/M 3 12 6 82 18 13 18 1950 1968 1991 1950-68 1968-91 Mean 817 814 709 83 235 600 284 Std. Dev. 55 93 135 63 65 238 89 % SD/M 7 11 19 76 28 40 31 Mean 788 837 832 91 188 825 246 Std. Dev. 147 91 158 52 86 334 113 % SD/M 19 11 19 57 46 40 46 1950 1968 1991 1950-68 1968-91 Mean 778 736 834 153 113 965 142 Std. Dev. 86 77 100 79 49 181 62 % SD/M 11 10 12 51 43 19 43 Mean 834 782 878 163 217 1003 283 Std. Dev. 110 153 79 77 87 329 113 % SD/M 13 20 9 47 40 33 40 BEND 3 Method Migration Distance (ft)Radius of Curvature (ft) COMPUTER ASSISTED ARCVIEW BEND 4 Method Migration Distance (ft)Radius of Curvature (ft) COMPUTER ASSISTED ARCVIEW BEND 5 Method Migration Distance (ft) 2021 Predicted Radius of Curvature (ft) 2021 Predicted Migration Distance (ft) Radius of Curvature (ft) COMPUTER ASSISTED ARCVIEW 2021 Predicted Radius of Curvature (ft) 2021 Predicted Migration Distance (ft) 2021 Predicted Radius of Curvature (ft) 2021 Predicted Migration Distance (ft)

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TRB’s National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Web Document 67: Methodology for Predicting Channel Migration documents and presents the results of a study to develop a practical methodology to predict the rate and extent of channel migration in proximity to transportation facilities. The principal product of this research was NCHRP Report 533: Handbook for Predicting Stream Meander Migration, a stand-alone handbook for predicting stream meander migration using aerial photographs and maps. A companion product to NCHRP Web Document 67 is NCHRP CD 49: Archived River Meander Bend Database, a four-CD-ROM set that contains a database of 141 meander sites containing 1,503 meander bends on 89 rivers in the United States.

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