Traffic Forecasting Accuracy Assessment Research (2020)

Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

III-2 Contents Part III of this report groups together eight appendices that provide additional information about the research, links to additional resources, and information to facilitate implementation of the recommendations contained in the report. • Appendix A: Electronic Resources provides links by which readers can access several electronic resources produced from this research. These resources include: – A spreadsheet-based tool that demonstrates the quantile regression models discussed in this report; – A presentation file that provides a quick summary of the research and can be useful as a communications tool; – Word files and Excel tables that make the content of the Forecast Archive Annotated Outline (Appendix B)and the Deep Dive Annotated Outline (Appendix C) available to practitioners in customizable form; and – Links to access the modeling software (Forecast Cards and Forecast Cards Data) developed by the project team, which are being made available to agencies and researchers to facilitate extending the work. – The spreadsheet, presentation file, and Word files can be downloaded at no charge from the NCHRP Research Report 934 webpage. To access these resources, go to the NAP Bookstore online (https://www.nap.edu/content/the-bookstore) and search for “NCHRP Research Report 934”. • Appendix B: Forecast Archive Annotated Outline (Silver Standard) provides an annotated outline detailing the Silver-level archiving approach to traffic forecast preservation. • Appendix C: Deep Dive Annotated Outline provides an annotated outline that can guide agencies conducting their own deep dive research on forecasts. • Appendix D: Forecast Card Data Assumptions describes the assumptions used in creating the Forecast Card datasets from this research. • Appendix E: Implementation Plan discusses the project team’s recommendations for implementing the results of this research. • Appendix F: Literature Review summarizes past efforts to document and analyze forecasting accuracy, considers several existing systematic review programs, reviews existing evidence on the accuracy of travel forecasts, and focuses on a selection of past studies in further detail to con- sider the methods used to analyze forecast accuracy and the issues cited as causes of inaccuracy. • Appendix G: Large-N Analysis details the project’s data exploration with several categorical variables as part of the Large-N analysis. This appendix focuses on the creation and use of the forecast accuracy database and the methodologies that were used when running the Large-N analysis for this project, including the development of a Python script for conducting the analysis, an Excel spreadsheet with the results of quantile regression, and an R-script. • Appendix H: Deep Dives provides a more in-depth look at the six deep dives conducted in this project.