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195 APPENDIX D: THREATS AND OPPORTUNITIES BY INTEREST AREA Interest Areas: ⢠System Use (SU) ⢠Transformational Technologies (TT) ⢠System Performance and Condition (SP) ⢠System Impacts and Externalities (SI) ⢠Organizational Capacity and Governance (OG) ⢠Equity (EQ) Threats and Opportunities SU TT SP SI OG EQ Lack of coordination on land-use transportation linkage x Limited influence over land use and zoning policy/regulation/decisions x x Changing/differences among population cohort travel behavior (preferences and needs) - by generation/age x x Changing/differences among population cohort travel behavior (preferences and needs) - by gender x x Changing/differences among population cohort travel behavior (preferences and needs) - by economic status x x Evolving perception of the workplace - location and need to commute/travel x Limited knowledge of increasing freight movement, temporally and spatially x Limited knowledge/oversight of technology applied to freight movement x Market influences on freight movement demand (trade alliances, supply chains, consumer demand) x x Increasing shift toward an on-demand economy x x Long-term impacts of COVID-19/potential for future disruption of similar scale x x x Limited knowledge/control of new mobility services x New mobility services' impacts on traditional services (transit) x x New market-specific mobility options for underserved/difficult-to- serve populations (spatial characteristics) x x
196 Threats and Opportunities SU TT SP SI OG EQ New market-specific mobility options for underserved/difficult-to- serve populations (population cohorts) x x New communication technologies to educate public on transportation-related benefits associated with safety, health, resource-efficiency, and affordable transportation choices x New communication technologies to inform/influence more effective/efficient system use x x New TSMO technologies to influence/permit more effective/efficient system use x x Reduction in VMT/congestion and emissions from use of personal life technologies (telework, teleshopping, home delivery) x x x Federal-aid program/federal rules' effects on investment decisions x Insufficient or ineffective mechanisms to facilitate multimodal, integrated transportation system planning x New data sources and analytics - collected/managed internally x x New data sources and analytics - third-party/private sector x Automated vehiclesâ uncertain market penetration and impact on travel behavior and travel demand estimates x x Innovative supply chain distribution strategies x Increasing use of drones and other freight delivery technologies x Application of distance-based tele-medicine, tele-shopping, and tele-work x Apparent low willingness of the public to accept AVs x New private sector partners and players with limited understanding of state DOTs' roles and requirements x x Unclear institutional roles and responsibilities in technology implementation - public agencies x x Unclear institutional roles and responsibilities in technology implementation - private vendors/firms x x Disproportionate impacts to disenfranchised communities from large-scale parking/charging infrastructure for and the routing of (electric) AVs x x Limited access to wired and wireless communications services in rural and/or disenfranchised communities x x Gaps in rural broadband connectivity x x
197 Threats and Opportunities SU TT SP SI OG EQ Lack of access to workforce skills to plan, design, and manage infrastructure and services to support or complement CAV operations x x Unresolved legal/institutional issues around liability x x Lack of standards that support CAV interoperability x Improved transportation system user and worker safety x Transportation system congestion reduction or improved system efficiency x x Transportation system derived emissions reduction x x Improved transportation agency efficiency in system condition and monitoring x x Improved accessibility and mobility in underserved markets (e.g., for people who have disabilities, older adults, those who are economically disenfranchised) x x New mobility and transportation accessibility solutions from AAM (e.g., cargo/package delivery, emergency medical services, airport shuttles and air taxi) x x Economic barriers and/or lack of infrastructure inhibiting EV adoption x x Unclear paths and mechanisms to scale from CAV test bed or pilot applications to mainstream applications x Need for new revenue models in the face of substantial changes in system definition and in response to transformational technologies x x Lack of alignment between automated freight delivery operations and DOT performance objectives x Ownership assignment of digital infrastructure among public and private entities x x Uncertainty of the DOT's role in managing AV applications x Uncertainty of what the DOT/public sector should appropriately regulate in relation to CV or AV applications x Regulatory, design, partnership, and other barriers that limit opportunities to monetize DOTs' rights-of-way x Limitations of state and national design standards (e.g., MUTCD) x x CV data specifications and data management x Lack of national vision or roadmap for passenger vehicle automation x
198 Threats and Opportunities SU TT SP SI OG EQ Increasing acceptance of technology applications in transportation, especially among the young x Increasing penetration of broadband technologies in rural areas x Increasing familiarity and skills of new workers with technology applications x Competition with the private sector for qualified staff - recruitment, retention, diversity x Non-competitive salaries, limited career paths, organizational structure limitations, etc. hindering recruitment, retention, and staff diversity x Challenges providing or managing the work environment expectations of younger generations x Lack of leadership, cultural sensitivity, and communication skills taught in many colleges and universities x Lack of staff capabilities to conduct multistate, multijurisdictional planning or megaregion planning x Uncertain organizational capacity impact on core functions due to greater numbers of staff working at least partly from home x Creating opportunity for and managing involvement of a greater number of partner organizations (e.g., public health) in the transportation planning process x Students in non-technical fields that can provide needed skills (e.g., technology-based communications) or broaden workforce diversity x New communication technologies to reach diverse groups to further agency objectives x x New mobility services' appeal to a wider range of the population (than traditional services like transit) x x New partner opportunities from co-locating multiple services in the right-of-way x Lack of proficiency with information technology among non- technical managers x x Disproportionate/negative impacts on workforce from automation x x Need to prepare and educate workforce to respond to increased role of automation and technology x x Need for effective practices to address issues of equity among underrepresented or disenfranchised groups x
199 Threats and Opportunities SU TT SP SI OG EQ Knowledge management challenges from current retirements and low propensity for younger generations to stay longer with an employer x Limitations on workforce recruitment, retention, and diversity due to minimum technical qualifications and credentials requirements x Institutional inertia limiting stakeholder engagement to address multijurisdictional challenges x Lack of information on efficacy and outcomes of P3 business models to support CV technology deployment x Unclear public sector role on efficacy and outcomes of P3 business models to support CV technology deployment x Private shared-use mobility companies augmenting or filling gaps in transit service availability x Continuing workplace application of new and innovative technologies x Continuing public support for transportation investment x Increasing familiarity of younger employees with personal use technologies x Increased pressure for the transportation sector to implement strategies to meet GHG reduction targets x Greater emphasis placed on projects' equity implications on disenfranchised and minority populations x x Greater emphasis placed on projects' implications in the context of climate change x Ability for transportation and energy infrastructure to support widespread EV use x x Public acceptance and adoption of passenger EVs x x Industry acceptance and adoption of electric trucks x x Private sector freight fleets adoption of electric trucks/EVs x x Public acceptance and adoption of AVs - security, privacy, safety concerns x x Limited control over land use policy/regulation/decisions x Greater frequency and intensity of extreme weather events x x Growing awareness of environmental impacts and climate change, especially among younger generations x Advancements in low-carbon/zero-carbon fuels x
200 Threats and Opportunities SU TT SP SI OG EQ Advancements in battery technology and EV market penetration x Transition of fleets for local deliveries to EVs/electric trucks x x Application of automation to local and long-distance freight delivery as part of a sustainability strategy x x Greater prevalence of adaptive design concepts and resilient community concepts among professional practice x Advancements in sensing and imaging technologies providing real- time capabilities to identify and respond to environmental incidents x x Insufficient energy infrastructure to support the freight sector's shift to low-carbon fuels or electricity x Complexity of measuring and modeling transportation sector GHG emissions and air pollutants in the context of region-wide sustainability policies x Limited understanding of the private sector truck usage market chain x Unclear relationship between vehicle automation and VMT x Unclear impact of automation on vehicle emissions if AVs are electrified x Unclear impact of automation on freight sector GHG emissions x Car-sharing services effects on VMT and emissions x Market forces driving the siting of warehouse/distribution centers, distribution routes, and use of more polluting trucks (ports) in communities with disenfranchised populations x x Transportation systems as possible vectors for transmission of infectious disease x Institutional incentives/policies favoring resource-intensive modes relative to more affordable and nonmotorized transportation x AVs' potential to decrease in-vehicle value of time - land use, location preference, and transportation use impacts x x Lack of accessibility measures in small and non-metropolitan areas x x Providing transportation mobility and accessibility options in rural regions experiencing population decline x x Advancements in sensing and imaging technologies providing real- time capabilities to identify and/or predict system/facility impacts x Continuing contributions to scientific understanding of environmental processes and their linkage to transportation systems x
201 Threats and Opportunities SU TT SP SI OG EQ Continuing professional practices toward community-oriented design x Significant backlog of road asset needs (rehabilitation, reconstruction, replacement) x Significant backlog of transit asset needs (rehabilitation, reconstruction, replacement) x Incorporation of risk-based planning approaches in planning and program development that anticipate and account for disruptive future events x x Project development process delays from complying with new rules/regulations related to climate change and social justice/equity x x Project development process delays from lack of qualified staff x x Linkage between asset lifecycle considerations, asset resilience, and causes of asset deterioration x Performance management requirements to support new/expanded transportation system objectives (e.g., equity, quality of life, economic development, environment, health) x Quantity and types of partnerships required for state DOTs to address new issues of concern in transportation planning x x Organizational silos inhibiting holistic performance management x x Insufficient or ineffective mechanisms to facilitate multimodal, integrated transportation system operations x Equity and privacy challenges of congestion pricing x x Modeling and assessment of ridesharing and on-demand transportation in transportation planning and operations x Implementing a data governance program x x Implementing effective data security and privacy programs x x Policy, data, analytical, and business systems enablers to facilitate cross-modal resource allocations x x Need for integrating dynamic risk management and resilience considerations in transportation asset management business processes x x Emerging technologies (e.g., building information modeling, big data applications) to support transportation asset management business processes x x Need for assessment methodologies and analytical tools to fast track the evaluation of new materials and construction techniques x x
202 Threats and Opportunities SU TT SP SI OG EQ and incorporate their effects into infrastructure performance modeling Overdependence on historical climate data in understanding the threat intensity of future severe weather events and disasters x x Methods to minimize the adverse consequences of failure in new facility design and rehabilitation x x Design and construction standards that incorporate resilience into the project development process x Alternative funding and financing mechanisms to pay for resilience performance x Need to better understand the behavior of evacuees during evacuation planning x Enhanced safety prediction models from third-party data sources and big data technologies x x Insufficient understanding of the linkage between transportation and health x Need for improved analytical methods, business systems, and data requirements to quantify health and mobility outcomes x x Continuing public support for infrastructure investment x Increasing public awareness of climate change-related disruptions to the transportation system x Introduction of new cost-effective construction materials x Emerging technologies in support for performance management x Growing sizes of population cohorts (e.g., older adults, minority populatins) presenting specific mobility challenges x x New/specific analysis and communication techniques required to equitably address the mobility challenges of growing population cohorts (e.g., older adults, minority populations) x Difficulty of rural road needs competing against those of urban roads x Gaps in rural broadband limiting work-from-home options for agency employees x Lack of tools or staff capabilities to assess rural equity concerns x x Rural road network vulnerability to significant system disruption x Increasing federal emphasis on equity-related concerns reflected in policies and programs x
203 Threats and Opportunities SU TT SP SI OG EQ Greater role of non-governmental advocacy groups raising awareness and priority of disenfranchised groups' transportation- related concerns x Growing number of minority individuals in transportation leadership roles x x Progress and establishment of best practices in incorporating equity concerns into planning and decision-making x x Lack of information to quantify transportation costs and benefits for certain population groups and communities x x Quantification of equity implications to evaluate differences among rural, suburban, and urban regions x Mobility-impaired and technologically challenged population groups' access to new mobility services x x Lack of understanding of the relationship between rural transportation, medical geography, and public health x x Public involvement challenges with incorporating economically and socially disenfranchised groups in transportation planning x x Incorporating equity in performance-based planning and programming x x Understanding the differential impacts of different AV strategy rollouts on various population groups x x Need for improved analytical methods, tools, and data requirements to understand the equity implications of transformational technologies x x Lack of information to understand the relationship between tolling and transportation outcomes of economically disenfranchised groups x Increasing numbers of people of color in the population x Increasing penetration of broadband technologies in rural areas x
