Toolkit for Establishing Airport Catchment Areas (2023)

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    ACRP Web-Only Document 56 Toolkit for Establishing Airport Catchment Areas Yi Gao Jin Wei-Kocsis Ningning Nicole Kong Sen Wang Purdue University West Lafayette, IN Gavin Duncan Daniel Skwarek Levi Anstine InterVISTAS Consulting USA LLC Washington, DC Toolkit for ACRP Project 03-62 Submitted October 2022 © 2023 by the National Academy of Sciences. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and the graphical logo are trademarks of the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. ACKNOWLEDGMENT This work was sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). It was conducted through the Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP), which is administered by the Transportation Research Board (TRB) of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, APTA, FAA, FHWA, FTA, GHSA, or NHTSA endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. DISCLAIMER The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research. They are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; or the program sponsors. The Transportation Research Board does not develop, issue, or publish standards or specifications. The Transportation Research Board manages applied research projects which provide the scientific foundation that may be used by Transportation Research Board sponsors, industry associations, or other organizations as the basis for revised practices, procedures, or specifications. The Transportation Research Board, the National Academies, and the sponsors of the Airport Cooperative Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report. The information contained in this document was taken directly from the submission of the author(s). This material has not been edited by TRB.

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C O O P E R A T I  V E  R E S E A R  C H  P R O G R A M S  CRP STAFF FOR ACRP WEB-ONLY DOCUMENT 56 Waseem Dekelbab, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs Marci A. Greenberger, Manager, Airport Cooperative Research Program Joseph D. Navarrete, Senior Program Officer Stephanie L. Campbell-Chamberlain, Senior Program Assistant Natalie Barnes, Director of Publications Heather DiAngelis, Associate Director of Publications Kathleen Mion, Assistant Editor ACRP PROJECT 03-62 PANEL Field of Policy and Planning Lisa Dalpiaz, Akron-Canton Airport, North Canton, OH (Chair) EunSu Lee, New Jersey City University, Jersey City, NJ Yi-Hui (Annie) Lin, Ontario International Airport Authority, Ontario, CA Derek V. Martin, Erie International Airport, Erie, PA Mitch Sprunger, Albert J. Ellis Airport, Jacksonville, NC Floriana Trif, DFW International Airport Board, Dallas, TX Christopher Criswell, FAA Liaison Aneil Patel, Airports Council International–North America Liaison Christine L. Gerencher, TRB Liaison AUTHOR ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The research reported herein was performed under ACRP Project 03-62 by the research team consisting of Purdue University and InterVISTAS Consulting Inc. Purdue University was the prime contractor for this study. This project was led by Principal Investigator (PI) Dr. Yi Gao (Purdue University). Co-Principal Investigators (Co-PI) included Dr. Ningning Kong (Purdue University), Dr. Jin Wei-Kocsis (Purdue University), Mr. Daniel Skwarek (InterVISTAS Consulting Inc.), Mr. Gavin Duncan (InterVISTAS Consulting Inc.), and Mr. Levi Anstine (InterVISTAS Consulting Inc.). Mr. Sen Wang (Purdue University) was the Student Investigator.

iv Summary The catchment area of an airport encompasses areas where residents and businesses are more likely to fly to and from the subject airport, even when there are other airport options in the vicinity. The airport catchment area is a geographic concept, and its boundary typically represents areas within which airline passengers choose to use the subject airport. The size and shape of a catchment area could vary, usually depending on the location, competition, operating carriers, and airport ground access. The “strength” of the airport’s influence is not constant within the catchment area. An airport radiates its influence on all the neighborhoods within the boundary of its catchment, and such influence wanes as the distance from that area to the airport increases. This toolkit comprises various analytical tools developed by the project team of ACRP 03-62. Some tools, such as the Travel Utility Analysis tool, are predictive in nature. They enable airports and their stakeholders to calculate the likely responses of travelers to different market and operational inputs, thus forecasting potential catchment areas for airports. Other tools are empirical. They rely on revealed or stated preference data of travelers’ airport choices to infer catchment areas for airports. Sources of empirical data may include travelers’ billing information used for flight ticket bookings or parking reservations, shared locations via mobile devices and applications, vehicle registrations, and self-disclosure during airport customer surveys. Airports and other stakeholders are advised to select relevant analytical tools from this toolkit based on their available resources and objectives to conduct or supervise a catchment area analysis project. Results produced by different analytical tools can be cross validated to verify the accuracy of the analysis. This toolkit includes guides and suggestions to help airports plan and manage catchment area analysis projects. Airport managers can follow these sections to enhance their understanding of the concept of catchment areas, the contributing factors, and practical implications. The toolkit provides a framework for airports to prepare, plan and conduct the analysis so that different aspects of the project can be considered and planned. In addition, this toolkit introduces different scenarios that might require airports to review and update their existing catchment area analysis results. This toolkit appends a comprehensive review of relevant literature about airport catchment areas and case studies based on five US airports. Users who wish to explore how the academic community defines and uses airport catchment areas could browse relevant studies published after the 1990s. Case studies are included to assist potential users in conducting preliminary analysis about the subject airport, in addition to the preliminary analysis guide provided in the toolkit. Five airports of different hub categories and locations are selected to demonstrate this procedure. This toolkit aims to help airports that wish to study their operating environment comprehensively. The toolkit will not only help airports build up-to-date, scenario-based, forward-looking catchment areas, but more importantly, it provides a framework for airports to thoroughly review their target markets, direct and indirect competitors, and potential areas for future business development. The change of mindset from viewing the catchment area as a static region with a rigid boundary to treating it as a dynamic space that expands or diminishes along with actual travel scenarios and conditions will empower airports to explore and develop new opportunities.

v Quick Start Guide This toolkit provides multiple tools to help airports identify the geographic origins of their customers and establish their catchment areas. The toolkit is composed of the following sections: • Introduction The Introduction section introduces the concept of the airport catchment area, lists contributing factors that may affect the shape and size of airport catchment areas, and discusses the implications of addressing catchment areas for airports. • Preliminary Analysis The Preliminary Analyses section has three analyses that should be conducted before starting catchment area analyses. These analyses help airports estimate the size of their market, review top destinations, and measure distances from surrounding areas to the subject airport and nearby competing airports. Results of the preliminary analyses will be later used as input for subsequent catchment areas analyses. • Tools for Catchment Area Analysis This section provides multiple tools that can be deployed by airports for catchment area analysis. To help airports select the right tools that suit their needs and resources, the initial section of this guide introduces the pros and cons of each tool. Airports are advised to adopt more than one tool, whenever possible, to cross-validate results. For each analytical tool, we explain its intended use, preview resource requirements, and explain the procedure to carry out the analysis. To help users adopt these tools more effectively, we use Akron- Canton Airport (CAK) as an example to illustrate the intermediate and final steps. Then at the end, we present the results of the analysis for CAK, Ontario International Airport (ONT), and Albert J. Ellis Airport (OAJ) to cross-validate results produced by different analytical tools. • Post-Analysis Recommendations Once the catchment area analysis is completed, the results should be visualized to present the shape and coverage of catchment areas. This toolkit introduces a few popular visualization tools. In addition, we are also aware of the dynamic market condition faced by airports. Therefore, this toolkit provides a few suggestions to help airports determine if their existing catchment area analysis needs to be updated. • Appendices A comprehensive review of relative literature on airport catchment areas and case studies of preliminary analysis based on five airports are included in this toolkit as appendices.

vi Contents GLOSSARIES .................................................................................................................................................... VIII GET STARTED ..................................................................................................................................................... 1 USER GUIDE ....................................................................................................................................................... 2 INTENDED USE .............................................................................................................................................................. 2 PREPARE YOUR ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................................................ 3 PLAN YOUR ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................................................................... 5 CONDUCT YOUR ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................................................... 7 INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................................................. 10 DEFINITION ................................................................................................................................................................. 10 CONTRIBUTION FACTORS ............................................................................................................................................... 10 IMPLICATIONS ............................................................................................................................................................. 11 PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS .................................................................................................................................... 13 MARKET ANALYSIS ....................................................................................................................................................... 13 AIR SERVICES ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................................................. 15 SPATIAL ANALYSIS ........................................................................................................................................................ 16 TOOLS FOR CATCHMENT AREA ANALYSIS .......................................................................................................... 21 OVERVIEW OF ANALYTICAL TOOLS ................................................................................................................................... 21 TRAVEL UTILITY ANALYSIS .............................................................................................................................................. 24 PASSENGER SURVEYS .................................................................................................................................................... 30 MOBILE LOCATION DATA ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................................. 40 PARKED VEHICLE ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................................................ 46 BILLING DATA ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................................................ 58 USER-GENERATED CONTENT (UGC) ANALYSIS .................................................................................................................. 74 CROSS-VALIDATION ...................................................................................................................................................... 81 POST-ANALYSIS RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................................................... 87 CATCHMENT VISUALIZATION TOOLS ................................................................................................................................ 87 GEOGRAPHIC ENTITIES & GEOGRAPHIC IDENTIFIERS (GEOIDS) ............................................................................................ 89 CATCHMENT AREA ANALYSIS MAINTENANCE .................................................................................................................... 89 APPENDIX A. LITERATURE REVIEW .................................................................................................................... 91 SUMMARY OF LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................................................................................. 92 CATEGORY I – STUDIES THAT DEFINE AIRPORT CATCHMENT AREAS ....................................................................................... 93 CATEGORY II – STUDIES THAT USE AIRPORT CATCHMENT AREAS ........................................................................................ 112

vii APPENDIX B. CASE STUDIES ............................................................................................................................. 129 OVERVIEW................................................................................................................................................................ 130 CASE STUDY 1 – BOSTON LOGAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (BOS) ..................................................................................... 134 CASE STUDY 2 – DALLAS LOVE FIELD AIRPORT (DAL) ....................................................................................................... 147 CASE STUDY 3 – ONTARIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (ONT) .............................................................................................. 159 CASE STUDY 4 – AKRON-CANTON AIRPORT (CAK) ........................................................................................................... 169 CASE STUDY 5 – JACKSONVILLE ALBERT J. ELLIS AIRPORT (OAJ) ......................................................................................... 181 REFERENCES .................................................................................................................................................... 189

viii Glossaries Airline Origin & Destination Survey (DB1B) A 10% sample of airline tickets from reporting carriers collected by the Office of Airline Information of the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 2019) Airline Reporting Corporation (ARC) A company that provides ticket transaction settlement services between airlines and travel agencies and the travel management companies that sell their products in the United States (Airline Reporting Corporation, 2022) Application Programming Interface (API) A set of defined rules enabling companies to open their applications’ data and functionality to external third-party developers, business partners, and internal departments within their companies (IBM, 2020) ArcGIS A collection of server software, client software, and online geographic information system software developed and maintained by Esri (2020) Catchment area The catchment area of an airport encompasses areas where residents and businesses are more likely to fly to and from the subject airport, even when there are other airport options in the vicinity. (See Definition) Census block groups (CBGs) Statistical divisions of census tracts, are generally defined to contain between 600 and 3,000 people and are used to present data and control block numbering (United States Census Bureau Geography Division, 2022) Census tract Small, relatively permanent statistical subdivisions of a county or statistically equivalent entity that can be updated by local participants prior to each decennial census as part of the Census Bureau’s Participant Statistical Areas Program (PSAP) (United States Census Bureau Geography Division, 2022) Data Bank 28DS - T-100 Dataset of the information on passengers, freight, and/or mail enplaned at the origin airport and deplaned at the destination airport (Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 2022a) Deep Convolutional Neural Networks (DCNN) A type of deep-learning network used to identify patterns in images and video (Baek et al., 2019) Geographic Entities & Geographic Identifiers (GEOIDs) Numeric codes that uniquely identify all administrative/legal and statistical geographic areas for which the Census Bureau tabulates data (United States Census Bureau, 2021d) Geographic Information System (GIS) A system that creates, manages, analyzes, and maps all types of geographically referenced information (Esri, 2022b) Ground access The ground transportation system that provides access to and from the airport for people and goods (Malandri et al., 2017) Hub categories The law categorizes airports by type of activities, including commercial service, primary, cargo service, reliever, and general aviation airports (FAA, 2022) IRS standard mileage rate The standard mileage rates for employees, self-employed individuals, or other taxpayers to use in computing the deductible costs of operating an automobile for business, charitable, medical, or moving expense purposes (IRS, 2022)

ix JavaScript A programming language that is one of the core technologies of the World Wide Web, alongside HTML and CSS (Flanagan, 2020) Levenshtein distance A metric of assessing the similarity of a pair of strings or subjects (Behara et al., 2020) Marketing Information Data Tapes (MIDT) Detailed information about the worldwide booking activities of travel agencies and airline carriers (Devriendt et al., 2006) Metropolitan Statistical Area A core region containing a substantial population nucleus, together with adjacent communities having a high degree of socioeconomic integration with that core (United States Census Bureau, 2021a) Primary airports Commercial Service Airports that have more than 10,000 passenger boardings each year (FAA, 2022) Python A high-level, interpreted, general-purpose programming language (Python, 2022) PyTorch An open-source machine learning framework that accelerates the path from research prototyping to production deployment (PyTorch, 2022) QGIS Open-source geographic information system application that supports viewing, editing, printing, and analysis of geospatial data (QGIS, 2022) R A software environment for statistical computing and graphics (R-Project, 2022) RestNet A residual neural network (ResNet) is an artificial neural network (ANN) (He et al., 2015) Revealed preference Selections based on “actual behavior to derive values” (Clinch, 2004) SafeGraph Dataset of the information of points of interest, spatial hierarchy metadata, foot traffic data, spending patterns, and more (SafeGraph, 2022a) Social Network Service (SNS) An online platform where people build social networks with other people with similar personal or career background, interests, and connections (boyd & Ellison, 2007) Stated preference Choices based on behavioral intentions and responses to hypothetical choice situations (Ben-Akiva et al., 1994) Tableau A software environment for statistical computing and graphics (Tableau, 2022a) User-Generated Content (UGC) Information created by users on social media and primarily distributed on the Internet (Daugherty et al., 2008) Value of travel time savings (VTTS) The benefits provided by reductions in the amount of time spent on travel (Department of Transportation, 2016) ZIP Code Tabulation Areas (ZCTAs) Generalized areal representations of United States Postal Service (USPS) ZIP Code service areas (United States Census Bureau Geography Division, 2022)