NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
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Support for this activity was provided by the U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform.
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COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS 1994–1995
NORMAN M. BRADBURN (Chair),
National Opinion Research Center, University of Chicago
JOHN E. ROLPH (Vice Chair),
Department of Information and Operations Management, School of Business Administration, University of Southern California
JOHN F. GEWEKE,
Department of Economics, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis
JOEL B. GREENHOUSE,
Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University
ERIC A. HANUSHEK,
W. Allen Wallis Institute of Political Economy, Department of Economics, University of Rochester
ROBERT M. HAUSER,
Department of Sociology and Institute for Research on Poverty, University of Wisconsin, Madison
NICHOLAS JEWELL,
Program in Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley
WILLIAM NORDHAUS,
Department of Economics, Yale University
JANET L. NORWOOD,
The Urban Institute, Washington, D.C.
EDWARD B. PERRIN,
School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of Washington
KEITH RUST,
Westat, Inc., Rockville, Maryland
DANIEL L. SOLOMON,
College of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, North Carolina State University
MIRON L. STRAF, Director
COMMITTEE ON POPULATION 1994–1995
RONALD D. LEE (Chair),
Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley
CAROLINE H. BLEDSOE,
Department of Anthropology, Northwestern University
JOSÉ-LUIS BOBADILLA,
World Bank, Washington, D.C.
JOHN BONGAARTS,
The Population Council, New York, New York
JOHN B. CASTERLINE,
The Population Council, New York, New York
LINDA G. MARTIN,
RAND, Santa Monica, California
ROBERT A. MOFFITT,
Department of Economics, Brown University
MARK R. MONTGOMERY,
Department of Economics, State University of New York, Stony Brook
ANNE R. PEBLEY,
RAND, Santa Monica, California
RONALD R. RINDFUSS,
Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
JAMES P. SMITH,
RAND, Santa Monica, California
BETH SOLDO,
Department of Demography, Georgetown University
MARTA TIENDA,
Population Research Center, University of Chicago
AMY O. TSUI,
Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
JOHN HAAGA, Director
WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS
RONALD LEE (Chair), Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley
FRANK BEAN, Population Resource Center, University of Texas
ANNE BRIDGMAN, Board on Children and Families, National Research Council and Institute of Medicine
ALICIA CACKLEY, Health, Education, and Human Services Division, U.S. General Accounting Office
THOMAS DOWNES, Department of Economics, Tufts University
THOMAS ESPENSHADE, Office of Population Research, Princeton University
CYNTHIA FAGNONI, Health, Education, and Human Services Division, U.S. General Accounting Office
ED FERNANDEZ, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
JOHN GEWEKE, Department of Economics, University of Minnesota
MICHAEL HOEFER, U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform
DAVID HOWELL, U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform
WILLARD MANNING, Institute for Health Services Research, University of Minnesota
DAVID MONK, Department of Education, Cornell University
SUSAN FORBES MARTIN, U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform
DAVID NIELSEN, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
DEBORAH PHILLIPS, Board on Children and Families, National Research Council and Institute of Medicine
SARAH ROSENBAUM, Center for Health Policy Research, George Washington University
RAFAEL SERRANO, Center for Health Policy Research, George Washington University
ANDREW SHERRILL, Health, Education, and Human Services Division, U.S. General Accounting Office
MICHAEL TEITELBAUM, Alfred P. Sloan Foundation
ROBERT WARREN, Immigration and Naturalization Service, U.S. Department of Justice
RUTH WASEM, Congressional Research Service
KAREN WOODROW-LAFIELD, U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform
BARRY EDMONSTON, Study Director, Committee on National Statistics
CANDICE EVANS, Project Assistant, Committee on National Statistics
KAREN FOOTE, Research Associate, Committee on Population
JOHN HAAGA, Director, Committee on Population
CAROL PARSONS, Consultant, Committee on National Statistics
MIRON STRAF, Director, Committee on National Statistics
Preface
The U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform was established by the Immigration Act of 1990 to examine the impact of immigration policy on localities and on the nation as a whole, including effects on social, economic, and community relations; population size and characteristics; and the environment. The commission has nine members, with the chair appointed by the President and the other eight members appointed by Congress.1 The commission issued its first interim report in September 1994 and will issue its final report in 1997. The interim report (U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform, 1994) recommended in principle that there should be federal aid to some states and local areas because of the effect of illegal immigration on public service costs. It noted, however, that "weak data make it difficult to determine the extent of [the] burdens of the net fiscal impact of illegal immigration (p. 25)," and further acknowledged the need for a "concerted effort to develop better data on such effects, with impact assistance provided only to the extent that actual net costs are accurately identified (p. 26)."
At the request of the commission, the Committee on National Statistics and the Committee on Population held a workshop in October 1994 to review six recent case studies that assess the net fiscal impact of illegal immigration on state and local public services. The workshop was in response to the commission's recommendation for further investigation of the available data and analysis and of whether they have been used in developing reliable estimates of the net costs
of providing public services to illegal aliens and their children. Specifically, workshop participants were asked to consider: assumptions about estimates of the number and characteristics of illegal immigrants, assumptions about estimates of the fiscal effects of selected public services for illegal immigrants, and assumptions about the possible employment displacement effect of illegal immigrants on residents. The workshop participants did not attempt to provide new estimates of fiscal effects, but rather to elucidate the main problems with current empirical studies, as well as strategies for improving the data, methods, and analyses on fiscal effects.
The two committees assembled a group of experts from a variety of related disciplines, including demography, economics, sociology, health care studies, education, and specialists in several immigration topics, joined by representatives from various government agencies and nonprofit research organizations. Those attending the workshop participated as individuals, not as representatives of their respective agencies or organizations.
The workshop was chaired by Ronald Lee, chair of the Committee on Population. Barry Edmonston served as the key staff organizer for the workshop, and Candice Evans skillfully handled the administrative duties. Carol Parsons, serving as a consultant to the Committee on National Statistics, took notes at the workshop and worked with Barry Edmonston to prepare an initial draft report. Deborah Carr, a consultant to the Committee on National Statistics, assisted with report preparation, and Michele Conrad ably guided the report from preparation through review and publication. The report also benefited from the editorial skills of Eugenia Grohman. The directors of our committees, Miron Straf and John Haaga, provided key oversight of the activity. We thank all of them, and the workshop participants, for their efforts on this important topic.
Norman M. Bradburn, Chair
Committee on National Statistics
Ronald D. Lee, Chair
Committee on Population