Reengineering the 2010 Census: Risks and Challenges
Daniel L. Cork, Michael L. Cohen, and Benjamin F. King, Editors
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
The project that is the subject of this report was supported by contract no. 50-YABC-8-66016 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Census Bureau. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
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Suggested citation: National Research Council (2004). Reengineering the 2010 Census: Risks and Challenges. Panel on Research on Future Census Methods. Daniel L. Cork, Michael L. Cohen, and Benjamin F. King, eds. Committee on National Statistics, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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PANEL ON RESEARCH ON FUTURE CENSUS METHODS
BENJAMIN F. KING (Chair),
Delray Beach, Florida
DAVID A. BINDER,
Methodology Branch, Statistics Canada, Ottawa
MICK P. COUPER,
Survey Research Center, University of Michigan, and Joint Program in Survey Methodology, University of Maryland
C.A. IRVINE,
San Diego, California
WILLIAM KALSBEEK,*
Department of Biostatistics, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
SALLIE KELLER-MCNULTY,
Statistical Sciences Group, Los Alamos National Laboratories, Los Alamos, New Mexico
GEORGE T. LIGLER,
Potomac, Maryland
MICHAEL M. MEYER,
Intelligent Results, Inc., Seattle, Washington
DARYL PREGIBON,**
Google, New York City
KEITH F. RUST,
Westat, Inc., Rockville, Maryland
JOSEPH J. SALVO,
Population Division, Department of City Planning, New York City
JOSEPH L. SCHAFER,
Department of Statistics, Pennsylvania State University
ALLEN L. SCHIRM,
Mathematica Policy Research, Inc., Washington, DC
JOSEPH H. SEDRANSK,
Department of Statistics, Case Western Reserve University
C. MATTHEW SNIPP,
Department of Sociology, Stanford University
DONALD YLVISAKER,
Department of Statistics, University of California, Los Angeles
ALAN M. ZASLAVSKY,
Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School
MICHAEL L. COHEN, Study Director
DANIEL L. CORK, Study Director
SHOREH ELHAMI, Consultant
AGNES E. GASKIN, Senior Project Assistant
COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS 2004
JOHN E. ROLPH (Chair),
Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California
JOSEPH G. ALTONJI,
Department of Economics, Yale University
ROBERT M. BELL,
AT&T Labs—Research, Florham Park, New Jersey
LAWRENCE D. BROWN,
Department of Statistics, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
ROBERT M. GROVES,
Survey Research Center, University of Michigan, and Joint Program in Survey Methodology, University of Maryland
JOHN C. HALTIWANGER,
Department of Economics, University of Maryland
PAUL W. HOLLAND,
Educational Testing Service, Princeton, New Jersey
JOEL L. HOROWITZ,
Department of Economics, Northwestern University
WILLIAM KALSBEEK,
Department of Biostatistics, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
ARLEEN LEIBOWITZ,
School of Public Policy and Social Research, University of California, Los Angeles
VIJAYAN NAIR,
Department of Statistics and Department of Industrial and Operations Engineering, University of Michigan
DARYL PREGIBON,
Google, New York City
KENNETH PREWITT,
School of Public Affairs, Columbia University
NORA CATE SCHAEFFER,
Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin, Madison
JAMES F. HINCHMAN, Acting Director
CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Acting Chief of Staff
Acknowledgments
THE PANEL ON RESEARCH ON FUTURE CENSUS METHODS of the Committee on National Statistics is pleased to submit this final report and wishes to thank the many people who have contributed to our work over the panel’s lifetime.
We thank the staff of the U.S. Census Bureau, under the leadership of director C. Louis Kincannon, deputy director Hermann Habermann, former director Kenneth Prewitt, and former acting director William Barron, for their interactions with the panel. In particular, we appreciate the efforts of Preston Jay Waite, associate director for decennial census. Rajendra Singh, the panel’s lead liaison with the Census Bureau, and Philip Gbur provided useful assistance. In plenary sessions and in smaller working group activities, the panel has also benefited from its interaction with other talented members of the Census Bureau staff, including Teresa Angueira, Andrea Brinson, Jon Clark, Dave Galdi, Nancy Gordon, Edison Gore, Joan Hill, Howard Hogan, Arnold Jackson, Dean Judson, Ruth Ann Killion, Joe Knott, Donna Kostanich, Juanita Lott, Robert Marx, Fay Nash, Alfredo Navarro, Sally Obenski, Ed Pike, Linda Pike, Jim Treat, Alan Tupek, Carol Van Horn, Frank Vitrano, and Tracy Wessler.
The tragic death of Charles H. “Chip” Alexander, Jr., in early September 2002 was an incalculable loss for the entire research community surrounding the decennial census and its related programs. The chief statistical methodologist for the American Community Survey (ACS), Chip was also the panel’s designated
liaison on ACS matters. One true pleasure of service on this panel was the opportunity for interaction with someone of Chip’s great knowledge and good humor, and we join his friends and colleagues in mourning his loss.
Our panel colleague Joseph Salvo, of the New York City Department of City Planning, ably chaired a working group to evaluate the Local Update of Census Addresses (LUCA) program from the local government perspective. Jointly sponsored by this panel and our sister panel, the Panel to Review the 2000 Census, LUCA working group members drew from their firsthand expertise in documenting their LUCA experience in case study form. We thank the members of this group—Shoreh Elhami, Abby Hughes, Terry Jackson, Tim Koss, and Harry Wolfe—and working group consultant Patricia Becker for their efforts, a solid reference work for our panel and the entire research community.
In particular, we have benefited greatly from the continuing consultation of LUCA working group member Shoreh Elhami, of the Delaware County (Ohio) Auditor’s Office. A current member of the National Research Council’s Mapping Science Committee, her expertise on census and geography matters from the local government perspective has enriched our discussions of the Census Bureau’s plans to modernize their geographic resources.
In April 2001 the panel opened its first examination of the proposed MAF/TIGER Enhancements Program by inviting a distinguished set of discussants to share their opinions on the proposed plans. In addition to Shoreh Elhami, this roster of discussants included Rick Ayers (Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc.), Donald Cooke (Geographic Data Technology, Inc.), Michel Lettre (State of Maryland), and Sarah Nusser (Department of Statistics, Iowa State University). We thank them for their time and their talents.
At the request of the Census Bureau, panel staff organized a meeting on September 10, 2003, dealing specifically with the Census Bureau’s plans to redesign the database structure for its geographic resources (Master Address File and TIGER geographic database). Conducted by the Census Bureau, the meeting supplemented expertise on the panel with additional experts in computer science, software engineering, and geogra-
phy. Panel members Al Irvine and Mike Meyer participated in the meeting; we thank invitees Michael Goodchild (University of California, Santa Barbara), Les Miller (Iowa State University and American Statistical Association/National Science Foundation Census Fellow), Jesse Poore (University of Tennessee), and Allan Wilks (AT&T Laboratories–Research) for their participation and discussion.
We are grateful to our colleagues on the companion Panel to Review the 2000 Census and to its chair, Janet Norwood, for their assistance and contributions over the course of the panel’s study. Members of our panel joined members and staff of the Norwood panel to visit local and regional census offices during the 2000 census. Since those early days, both panels have been continually updated on each other’s progress. In particular, the Norwood panel’s detailed discussion of the 2000 Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation and the possible statistical adjustment of the 2000 census figures has been most helpful to us in suggesting priorities for coverage measurement in 2010.
Over the years, the panel has greatly benefited from good relations and insightful interaction with the broader census community. Terri Ann Lowenthal’s “Census 2000 News Briefs” have been a most helpful resource and an important communications channel, and we appreciate her efforts. We have learned much from our discussions with relevant staff of the U.S. House Subcommittee on the Census of the Committee on Government Reform (and its successor subcommittees with census oversight authority), particularly David McMillen and former subcommittee staffer Michael Miguel. We have appreciated our interaction with census-related staff of the U.S. General Accounting Office, including Robert Parker and Ty Mitchell. We also thank Ed Spar of the Council of Professional Associations on Federal Statistics and Susan Schechter and Katherine Wallman of the U.S. Office of Management and Budget for their participation in panel meetings.
Logistical arrangements for panel activities were made with great skill by Agnes Gaskin, senior project assistant. Research assistant Marisa Gerstein deserves thanks for her help with maintaining an archive of materials related to both this panel and the Panel to Review the 2000 Census. Former CNSTAT staff mem-
ber Carrie Muntean, now stationed with the U.S. Foreign Service, did exemplary work for both panels and, in particular, with the LUCA working group. CNSTAT consultant Meyer Zitter’s enthusiasm in collecting information for both panels is greatly appreciated. Cameron Fletcher, associate editor, and Christine McShane, senior editor of the reports office of the Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, contributed to this report with fine technical editing. Finally, virtually all of the activities of the Committee on National Statistics benefit greatly from the involvement and advice of Constance Citro, senior program officer. Given her role as study director of the Panel to Review the 2000 Census, we have drawn quite heavily on her wisdom and benefited from her contributions.
Finally, I represent the whole panel in expressing our gratitude to Daniel Cork and to Michael Cohen, the codirectors of this study, for their invaluable assistance in all aspects of our work. Neither this report nor the interim and letter reports that have preceded it would have been possible without their excellent liaison activities with the Census Bureau, their able handling of the logistics of our meetings, their up-to-date reporting to distant panel members of all developments in the Census Bureau’s planning for 2010, and their translation into readable prose of our reactions to and recommendations for the process as it has unfolded. Personally, it has been a great pleasure to work with them.
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the National Research Council (NRC). The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.
We thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Barbara A. Bailar, statistical consultant, Washington, DC; Barbara Everitt Bryant, University of
Michigan Business School; Don A. Dillman, Departments of Sociology and Community Rural Sociology and Social Economic Sciences Research Center, Washington State University; Michael Hout, Department of Sociology, University of California, Berkeley; Janet Norwood, consultant, Chevy Chase, MD; and Halliman H. Winsborough, Department of Sociology and Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin–Madison.
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of the report was overseen by Robert Hauser, Center for Demography, University of Wisconsin–Madison. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of the report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring panel and the institution.
Benjamin F. King, Chair
Panel on Research on Future Census Methods
Acronyms and Abbreviations
ACE
Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation
ACF
Address Control File
ACS
American Community Survey
ALMI
Automated Listing and Mapping Instrument
AREX 2000
Administrative Records Experiment (2000)
BAS
Boundary and Annexation Survey
BSA
basic street address
C2SS
Census 2000 Supplementary Survey
CAI
computer-assisted interviewing
CAPI
computer-assisted personal interviewing
CATI
computer-assisted telephone interviewing
CAUS
Community Address Updating System
CEFU
coverage edit follow-up
CIFU
coverage improvement follow-up
CIO
chief information officer
CMM
Capability Maturity Model
CNSTAT
Committee on National Statistics
COTS
commercial off-the-shelf
CPS
Current Population Survey
DADS
Data Access and Dissemination System
DCS 2000
Data Capture System 2000
DEX
Digital Exchange
DMAF
Decennial Master Address File
DSE
dual-systems estimation
DSF
Delivery Sequence File
ESCAP
Executive Steering Committee on ACE Policy
FEAF
Federal Enterprise Architecture Framework
FIPS
Federal Information Processing Standards
GAO
U.S. General Accounting Office
GBF/DIME
Geographic Base File/Dual Independent Map Encoding
GIS
geographic information systems
GPS
global positioning system
GQ
group quarters
GSS
Geographic Support System
ICM
Integrated Coverage Measurement
IDC/IQA
Internet Data Collection/Internet Questionnaire Assistance
IDEF0
Integration Definition for Function Modeling
IRS
Internal Revenue Service
IT
information technology
IVR
interactive voice response
LCO
local census office
LUCA
Local Update of Census Addresses
MAF
Master Address File
MAF/TIGER
Master Address File/Topologically Integrated Geographic Encoding and Referencing System
MAFGOR
MAF Geocoding Office Resolution
MaRCS
Matching and Review Coding System
MCD
minor civil division; mobile computing device (Census Bureau usage)
MIS 2000
Management Information System 2000
MTAIP
MAF/TIGER Accuracy Improvement Project
MTEP
MAF/TIGER Enhancements Program
NCT
National Census Test (2003)
NRC
National Research Council
NRFU
nonresponse follow-up
OCR
optical character recognition
OCS
2000 Operations Control System 2000
OIG
Office of Inspector General (U.S. Department of Commerce)
OMB
Office of Management and Budget
OMR
optical mark recognition
PALS
Program for Address List Supplementation
PAMS/ADAMS
Pre-Appointment Management System/Automated Decennial Administrative Management System
PCD
portable computing device
PDA
personal digital assistant
PES
postenumeration survey
PRED
Planning, Research, and Evaluation Division (U.S. Census Bureau)
PSA
primary selection algorithm
RFP
request for proposals
RMIE
Response Mode and Incentive Experiment
SIPP
Survey of Income and Program Participation
SNRFU
sampling for nonresponse follow-up
StARS
Statistical Administrative Records System
TEA
type of enumeration area
TIGER
Topologically Integrated Geographic Encoding and Referencing System
TMU
Targeted Map Update
TQA/CEFU
Telephone Questionnaire Assistance/Coverage Edit Follow-Up
USGS
United States Geological Survey
USPS
United States Postal Service