Innovations in Travel Demand Modeling, Volume 1: Session Summaries (2008)

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59 BREAKOUT SESSION The Future of Travel Behavior and Data Collection Larry Blain, Puget Sound Regional Council Konstadinos Goulias, University of California, Santa Barbara Neil Kilgren, Puget Sound Regional Council Terry Michalowski, Puget Sound Regional Council Elaine Murakami, Federal Highway Administration Kay Axhausen, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Eiji Hato, University of Tokyo Ryuichi Kitamura, Kyoto University CATCHING THE NEXT BIG WAVE: ARE THE BABY BOOMERS FORCING US TO CHANGE OUR REGIONAL TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTS? Larry Blain, Konstadinos Goulias, Neil Kilgren, Terry Michalowski, and Elaine Murakami Larry Blain discussed an ongoing study at the Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC) examining possible changes in travel behavior of individuals in the baby boom generation as they retire or near retirement. He described the general demographic trends in Washington State, the panel survey of households in the Puget Sound region, and the preliminary assessment of factors to con- sider in possible changes in travel behavior due to retire- ment. The following points were covered in his presentation. • PSRC covers four counties and has a population of approximately 3.5 million. Seattle is the largest city in the region. From 1989 to 2002, PSRC conducted a panel survey of 1,700 households in the metropolitan area. The survey included 10 waves, with replacement house- holds added during each wave if households dropped out. A 2-day travel diary was completed for each house- hold member 15 years of age and older for all waves. A total of 259 households continued through all 10 waves. • The panel survey provides a good longitude data set that has been used for numerous studies. One of the studies examined potential changes in behavior as indi- viduals retired or neared retirement. Information on individuals 50 years of age and older who appeared in more than one wave was examined. The behavior of these individuals was examined over time as they retired or neared retirement. • TRB’s recent Critical Issues in Transportation addresses the aging population in the country.1 The TRB report notes the following: “As the population ages, more people will have to give up driving, and with it the mobility that defined their adult life. Most people are aging in place— that is, staying on where they have resided as adults— so that the majority of older Ameri- cans are remaining in automobile- dependent areas. Los- ing the ability to drive poses a hardship, particularly when adult children live far away.” • Before discussing the next big wave in demograph- ics and socioeconomic trends, it is important to examine the last big wave. Important recent trends in the Puget Sound Region focused on increases in employment and decreases in average household size. In the 1960s, approximately 40% of the population in the region was employed. From 1970 to 1990, the employed population in the region increased to 52%, which represents a major shift. At the same time, the average household size declined. As a result of these two trends, the number of workers per household may be similar, but there are some important demographic shifts. These shifts include an increase in single- parent households, an increase in 1 http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/general/CriticalIssues06.pdf.