Quantifying Transit’s Impact on GHG Emissions and Energy Use—The Land Use Component (2015)

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29 S E C T I O N 5 5.1 Capabilities of the Calculator The TCRP Project H-46 research team created the Land Use Benefit Calculator (“the cal- culator”), an MS-Excel-based sketch-modeling tool, to apply the research findings discussed in Section 4. The calculator (available at www.TRB.org/main/blurbs/172110.aspx) is designed to allow transit agencies, metropolitan planning organizations, and other interested parties to esti- mate the land use effects of their existing or planned transit projects with a minimum amount of input data required. Default inputs for most urban regions are provided for the year 2010. Specifically, the calculator allows the user to estimate • The land use benefits of the existing regional transit system. • The land use benefits of a regional transit plan. • The land use benefits of a new transit route or improved transit service along an existing corridor. • The land use benefits of a new transit station or stop or improved transit service to an existing station or stop. All land use benefits are estimated in terms of the following metrics: • VMT reduction. • Gasoline consumption reduced. • GHG emissions saved. The calculator also estimates ridership benefits for convenient comparison to the land use benefits; however, for new projects, more accurate ridership benefits should be estimated using ridership forecasts developed by the transit agency. For new transit projects, the calculator uses inputs in terms of • Transit route miles. • Transit revenue service miles. • Job accessibility by transit. These are the variables that the statistical analysis described in Section 4 found to have a sig- nificant and positive effect on land use densities, and generating more compact development is essential to creating land use benefits. Other aspects of transit service, including right-sizing vehicle capacity, providing rider amenities (such as integrated payment systems and real-time arrival information), and marketing campaigns, are important aspects of transit planning and encouraging ridership; however, these other variables do not have a measurable effect on land use. For all transit improvements, the land use benefits estimated will be realized in the long term. Land use patterns take years or even decades to respond to changes in transportation systems. The Land Use Benefit Calculator: An Introduction

30 Quantifying Transit’s Impact on GHG Emissions and Energy Use—The Land Use Component Periods of slow regional population growth or local property market downturns can delay expected development activity. The calculator does not explicitly consider real estate market supply and demand factors (including population growth forecasts) or the effect of public policies related to compact development around transit. Rather, the calculator predicts the land use effects that are attributable to transit given average levels of real estate activity and public support. Transit investments in areas of high development potential could see much larger land use benefits. 5.2 Structure of the Calculator The Land Use Benefit Calculator consists of seven tabs: 1. Intro—collects basic information about the geography of analysis and provides guidance about which type of analysis to use. 2. Learn more—provides more information about using pre-defined and custom regions. 3. Custom base—allows the user to provide information for a custom baseline region. 4. Benefits of current system—Estimates benefits of the current regional transit system. 5. Region—estimates benefits at the regional level for a regional transit expansion. 6. Corridor—estimates benefits at the corridor level for corridor improvements. (A corridor consists of the area within 1 mile on either side of a route served by one or more transit lines.) 7. Station area—estimates benefits of a new transit station or stop or improved transit service to an existing station or stop for the area within 1 mile of the station or stop. The User Guide in Section 6 provides a step-by-step guide to navigating the calculator in four steps: • Step 1: Select Your Baseline Region. • Step 2: Select Your Analysis Type. • Step 3: Enter Data on Your Project. • Step 4: View Information on the Benefits of Transit. Case studies of applications of the calculator in Philadelphia and Salt Lake City are also provided. 5.3 Relationship to Other Modeling Tools The Land Use Benefit Calculator is a sketch-modeling tool that incorporates new research on the influence of transit systems on land use patterns. No other modeling tool in use by transportation planners—including travel demand models, land use models, and sketch models—accounts for the effects of public transportation on VMT in the same way: • Travel demand models. Both traditional four-step models and newer activity-based models start with a fixed land use scenario. Models that incorporate the transit mode will predict the effect of transit investment on VMT, but only through the ridership effect. The land use benefits of transit, which are realized as transit fosters more compact development and thereby allows people to make more trips by bicycling, walking, and shorter car trips, are not accounted for. • Land use models (including integrated travel demand and land use models). Land use mod- els can theoretically be used to estimate land use benefits of transit, if run in conjunction with a travel demand model. Land use models start with a baseline land use scenario and predict changes in land use over time in response to demographic and economic factors, including accessibility of various land uses via the transportation system. A hedonic pricing model is used to predict the change in value of individual parcels due to changes in the transportation

The Land Use Benefit Calculator: An Introduction 31 system, but models are generally not able to account separately for the effects of different transportation modes. Parcels that increase in value are more likely to be developed, resulting in an increase in density around transit. The resulting higher density land use scenario could then be fed into a travel demand model to estimate a VMT reduction. By running land use and travel models in feedback until they reach equilibrium, users could assess both the long- term effect of transit on land use and the effect of these land use changes on travel patterns. However, this is a labor-intensive process, and the research team is not aware of any agency using their land use and transportation models in this fashion to analyze or compare specific transit projects; these models are usually used to look at the effect of a suite of multimodal investments in the context of a long-term plan. • Sketch models. A new generation of sketch models is emerging that allows states and regions to estimate the VMT reduction potential of various strategies such as transit expansion, pricing, travel demand management programs, and smart growth land use scenarios. GreenSTEP is one example in use in Oregon. While simpler to use than full-fledged travel demand models and land use models, these sketch models lack the ability to account for the influence of transit on land use patterns. As a result, the Land Use Benefit Calculator can be used to supplement the results of other sketch models that analyze a broader range of VMT reduction strategies. Pilot tester Lane Transit District (Eugene, Oregon) specifically used the Land Use Benefit Calculator to supplement the GreenSTEP scenarios developed for the regional transportation plan. The Land Use Benefit Calculator is unique in that • Land use benefits can be estimated for any urban area and for a broad range of transit plans and projects using a small number of readily available inputs, often without the need to con- duct runs of more complex models. • Land use benefits are estimated using a statistical model developed for that purpose. • Land use benefits are explicitly isolated from ridership benefits.