Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook (2013)

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6Need is defined in two ways: (1) as the number of people in a given geographic area likely to require a passenger transportation service and (2) as the number of trips that would be made by those persons if they had minimal limitations on their personal mobility. Because the incremental cost of a trip using a car is low for those who have ready access to and abil- ity to use a car, the difference between the number of daily trips made by persons with ready availability to a personal vehicle and by those lacking such access is used as the indicator of the unmet need for additional person-trips. Not all of this unmet need will be provided by public passenger transportation services. Persons lacking a personal vehicle or the ability to drive receive transportation from friends, relatives, volunteers, and social-service agencies, as well as from public services. Population Segments Data analyzed in the development of this method indicated that although there is a daily trip rate decline for individuals as they age, the two factors showing the greatest impact on trip need are vehicle ownership and poverty. Data related to poverty status and vehicle ownership had been collected regularly as part of the decennial Census. Since 2005, these data are collected as part of the ACS. Therefore, this will be the primary source for collecting the data necessary to perform this method. These data may also be available from the local county or regional planning agencies that serve the areas under study. Data on the number of persons residing in households owning no vehicle can be derived from a specific dataset within the ACS. Table 2 illustrates the computation to obtain the number of persons residing in households owning no personal vehicle (using data obtained from the ACS). Estimates of need for passenger transportation services in rural areas should be presented as • Number of persons residing in households with income below the poverty level, plus • Number of persons residing in households owning no vehicle. To document the number of persons who need passenger transportation service in your area, complete Table 3. In practice, there is some overlap of these groups (i.e., some households with income below the poverty level also lack a personal vehicle). Although a detailed analysis of the ACS data could determine the degree of overlap in specific areas, the added precision would not be consistent with the intended use of this measure. C H A P T E R 2 Need

Need 7 Example Computation–Population Segments Method To obtain the required data from the ACS, go to the main Census website at www.census.gov (see Figure 2). Hovering over Data at the top of the page will bring down a menu. Then clicking on the link to the American FactFinder will bring the user to the FactFinder home page (see Figure 3). Owning No Vehicle Mul�plier Persons resident in households owning no vehicle 1-person households A 1 A x 1 2-person households B 2 2 3-person households C 3 C x 3 4- or more person households D 4 4 Total Persons (A x 1) + (B x 2) + (C x 3) + (D x 4) Table 2. Example Computation to Convert Households Owning No Personal Vehicle to Residents in Households Owning No Personal Vehicle. Persons residing in households with income below the poverty level Persons residing in households owning no automobile Table 3. Worksheet for Documenting Persons with Transportation Needs. Figure 2. Census Main Page.

8 Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation To obtain data about the number of persons residing in households lacking a personal vehicle, enter Table B08201 in the topic or table name box and click GO (see Figure 4). Then select the geographic area for which the data are required. This is done by selecting the Geographies menu along the side, and selecting the Geographic Type that corresponds to the service area (e.g., state and county) (see Figure 5). Figure 3. American FactFinder Home Page. Figure 4. American FactFinder Table Selection.

Need 9 Once the geographic type has been chosen (e.g., county), filtering the geography further will be necessary to obtain data for the county or counties of interest. This can be accomplished using the Geography Filter Options along the left side of the Select Geographies box. Clicking the drop-down menu for Within State will allow the user to narrow the focus by State (see Figure 6). The user can then check the various individual geographies (e.g., counties) that constitute the service area for the agency in question. When all of the geographies have been checked, click Add (see Figure 7). Once the study area has been identified through the geography selection process, click the Close X to close the Select Geographies menu (see Figure 8). Figure 5. American FactFinder Geographic Area Type Selection. Figure 6. American FactFinder Filtering Geographic Area Type Selection.

10 Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation In order to view the results once the geography has been selected, select the appropriate dataset. Use the most recent ACS 5-year dataset available. This is accomplished by selecting the appropriate dataset and clicking View (see Figure 9). The results screen will appear (see Figure 10). The data can be pulled directly from the screen, or they can be downloaded into other formats (e.g., .PDF, .xls, .rtf) by clicking the Download action. Using the results for ACS Table B08201, pull the figures for households with No vehicle avail- able and place them in a table similar to Table 2 by household size (see Figure 11 and Table 4). Figure 7. American FactFinder Adding Geography. Figure 8. American FactFinder Close Geography Selection Menu.

Need 11 Figure 9. American FactFinder Selecting Dataset. Figure 10. ACS Table B08201 Results Screen (Example).

12 Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation Figure 11. ACS Table B08201 Results – Bedford County, VA (Example). No Vehicle Mul�plier Persons resident in households owning no vehicle 1-person household 789 1 789 2-person household 274 2 548 3-person household 112 3 336 4- or more person household 18 4 72 Total Persons 1,745 Table 4. Computation to Convert Households Owning No Personal Vehicle to Residents in Households Owning No Personal Vehicle – Bedford County, VA (Example).

Need 13 Sum the results; this is the number of persons residing in the study area that live in a household with no vehicle available. Information on the number of persons living below the poverty level can be obtained in the same way, using ACS Table B17001. This is accomplished by clicking Back to Search near the top of the screen after viewing the results from the previous table (see Figure 12). Prior to searching for the next table number, clear the previous table number from the Your Selections menu on the left. Once the previous table has been removed, type B17001 into the Search for: box and select GO when the appropriate table has been identified (see Figure 13). Note: The geography selected as part of the first table selection should be retained. If the geography selection has not been retained, follow the steps outlined above to reselect the geography. Select the most current 5-year dataset and click View. The results table will appear (see Fig- ure 14). Make note of the number of persons whose Income in the past 12 months was below the poverty line in a table similar to Table 1 (see Table 5). Adding the number of persons residing in households below the poverty line and the number of persons residing in households owning no vehicle will produce an estimate of the number of persons within the given study area who are in need of passenger transportation services. Mobility Gap The mobility gap is the total number of trips not taken because members of zero-vehicle households do not have the ease of mobility available to members of households with ready access to a car. The mobility gap for the nation as a whole and the nine Census regions has been Figure 12. American FactFinder Return to Search.

Figure 13. American FactFinder Table Selection – B17001 (Example). Figure 14. ACS Table B17001 Results – Bedford County, VA (Example).

Need 15 developed from data in the 2009 National Household Travel Survey (see Table 6). A mobility gap estimate based on household vehicle availability, with the gap measured in trips per day, is computed as Need (trips) = Number of Households having No Car × Mobility Gap The mobility gap computation uses one of the pieces of data used in the Population Segments method above, households with no vehicle available (Table B08201). Multiply the gap number for your region found in Table 6 by the number of households owning no personal vehicle in your service area to estimate the daily mobility gap. This method may also be used to estimate the mobility gap for subareas of your region. The estimate produced by the mobility gap method is measured in one-way trips per day. Having an estimate of the number of trips to be served over a given service area provides a way to quantify the resources that would be needed to meet this unserved demand. TCRP Report 98: Persons residing in households with income below the poverty level (Figure 14) 5,897 Persons residing in households owning no automobile (Table 4) 1,745 Persons in need of Passenger Transporta�on Services 7,642 Table 5. Worksheet for Documenting Persons with Transportation Needs (Example). Census Division States Trips per Rural Household Per Day Vehicles Available Gap 0 1 Na�onal 3.2 4.7 1.5 Division 1: New England Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachuse�s, Connec�cut, Rhode Island 3.3 5.0 1.7 Division 2: Middle Atlan�c New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania 3.5 4.8 1.3 Division 3: East North Central Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois 2.7 4.1 1.4 Division 4: West North Central North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota 2.4 4.5 2.1 Division 5: South Atlan�c Maryland, Delaware, West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida 3.2 4.5 1.3 Division 6: East South Central Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi 2.7 4.1 1.4 Division 7: West South Central Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas, Louisiana 2.9 4.9 2.0 Division 8: Mountain Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico 5.2 6.0 0.8 Division 9: Pacific Washington, Oregon, California, Alaska, Hawaii 3.8 4.9 1.1 Table 6. Mobility Gap.

16 Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation Resource Requirements for Demand-Responsive Transportation Services provides a method for estimating the number of vehicles needed to serve a given level of demand over a given service area when the call-ahead time window and the required degree of assurance that a trip can be served are specified (http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/tcrp/tcrp_rpt_98.pdf). Example Computation–Mobility Gap Method Retrieve ACS Table B08201 for the study area (see Figure 15). This can be accomplished fol- lowing the steps outlined above for retrieving the data for the Population Segments Method. Collect the gap number from Table 6 (1.3–South Atlantic). Produce the estimate of need by multiplying the gap number by the number of households with no vehicle available (see Table 7). Figure 15. ACS Table B08201 Mobility Gap Results – Bedford County, VA (Example). Households with No Vehicle Available 1,193 Gap Number 1.3 Mobility Gap (Trips per day) 1,551 Table 7. Mobility Gap Calculation – Bedford County, VA (Example).

Need 17 To produce an estimate for annual need, it is recommended that the daily Mobility Gap figure be multiplied by 300 days. This figure reflects that trip need is likely reduced on the weekends, but annual need is not just associated with weekdays. This results, for the example above, in an annual need of 465,300 trips. The estimates of need made using the mobility gap method are typically far greater than the number of trips actually observed on rural passenger transportation systems and are likely greater than the demand that would be generated for any practical level of service. Much of the remaining trip-based mobility gap is likely filled by friends and relatives driving residents of non-car-owning households. Therefore, agencies choosing to use the mobility gap may wish to establish a target or goal for the proportion of the gap to be satisfied by publicly provided services. In the testing of these suggested methodologies with a number of rural transit agencies, it was found that, at best, only about 20% of the mobility gap trip-based need was met.