Preparing Peak Period and Operational Profiles—Guidebook (2013)

Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

A I R P O R T C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M ACRP REPORT 82 TRANSPORTAT ION RESEARCH BOARD WASHINGTON, D.C. 2013 www.TRB.org Research sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration Subscriber Categories Aviation  •  Operations and Traffic Management  •  Planning and Forecasting Preparing Peak Period and Operational Profiles—Guidebook Patrick Kennon HNTB Arlington, VA Robert Hazel Eric Ford Oliver WymaN Reston, VA Belinda Hargrove TraNssOluTiONs Fort Worth, TX

AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM Airports are vital national resources. They serve a key role in trans­ portation of people and goods and in regional, national, and inter­ national commerce. They are where the nation’s aviation system connects with other modes of transportation and where federal respon­ sibility for managing and regulating air traffic operations intersects with the role of state and local governments that own and operate most airports. Research is necessary to solve common operating problems, to adapt appropriate new technologies from other industries, and to introduce innovations into the airport industry. The Airport Coopera­ tive Research Program (ACRP) serves as one of the principal means by which the airport industry can develop innovative near­term solutions to meet demands placed on it. The need for ACRP was identified in TRB Special Report 272: Airport Research Needs: Cooperative Solutions in 2003, based on a study spon­ sored by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The ACRP carries out applied research on problems that are shared by airport operating agencies and are not being adequately addressed by existing federal research programs. It is modeled after the successful National Coopera­ tive Highway Research Program and Transit Cooperative Research Pro­ gram. The ACRP undertakes research and other technical activities in a variety of airport subject areas, including design, construction, mainte­ nance, operations, safety, security, policy, planning, human resources, and administration. The ACRP provides a forum where airport opera­ tors can cooperatively address common operational problems. The ACRP was authorized in December 2003 as part of the Vision 100­Century of Aviation Reauthorization Act. The primary participants in the ACRP are (1) an independent governing board, the ACRP Oversight Committee (AOC), appointed by the Secretary of the U.S. Department of Transportation with representation from airport operating agencies, other stakeholders, and relevant industry organizations such as the Airports Council International­North America (ACI­NA), the American Associa­ tion of Airport Executives (AAAE), the National Association of State Aviation Officials (NASAO), Airlines for America (A4A), and the Airport Consultants Council (ACC) as vital links to the airport community; (2) the TRB as program manager and secretariat for the governing board; and (3) the FAA as program sponsor. In October 2005, the FAA executed a contract with the National Academies formally initiating the program. The ACRP benefits from the cooperation and participation of airport professionals, air carriers, shippers, state and local government officials, equipment and service suppliers, other airport users, and research orga­ nizations. Each of these participants has different interests and respon­ sibilities, and each is an integral part of this cooperative research effort. Research problem statements for the ACRP are solicited periodically but may be submitted to the TRB by anyone at any time. It is the responsibility of the AOC to formulate the research program by iden­ tifying the highest priority projects and defining funding levels and expected products. Once selected, each ACRP project is assigned to an expert panel, appointed by the TRB. Panels include experienced practitioners and research specialists; heavy emphasis is placed on including airport pro­ fessionals, the intended users of the research products. The panels pre­ pare project statements (requests for proposals), select contractors, and provide technical guidance and counsel throughout the life of the project. The process for developing research problem statements and selecting research agencies has been used by TRB in managing cooper­ ative research programs since 1962. As in other TRB activities, ACRP project panels serve voluntarily without compensation. Primary emphasis is placed on disseminating ACRP results to the intended end­users of the research: airport operating agencies, service providers, and suppliers. The ACRP produces a series of research reports for use by airport operators, local agencies, the FAA, and other interested parties, and industry associations may arrange for work­ shops, training aids, field visits, and other activities to ensure that results are implemented by airport­industry practitioners. ACRP REPORT 82 Project 03­12 ISSN 1935­9802 ISBN 978­0­309­25880­7 Library of Congress Control Number 2013955574 © 2013 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not­for­profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB or FAA endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not­for­profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. NOTICE The project that is the subject of this report was a part of the Airport Cooperative Research Program, conducted by the Transportation Research Board with the approval of the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The members of the technical panel selected to monitor this project and to review this report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. The report was reviewed by the technical panel and accepted for publication according to procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board, the National Research Council, or the program sponsors. The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, the National Research Council, and the sponsors of the Airport Cooperative Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report. Published reports of the AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM are available from: Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 and can be ordered through the Internet at http://www.national­academies.org/trb/bookstore Printed in the United States of America

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. On the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, on its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. The Transportation Research Board is one of six major divisions of the National Research Council. The mission of the Transporta- tion Research Board is to provide leadership in transportation innovation and progress through research and information exchange, conducted within a setting that is objective, interdisciplinary, and multimodal. The Board’s varied activities annually engage about 7,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individu- als interested in the development of transportation. www.TRB.org www.national-academies.org

C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M S CRP STAFF FOR ACRP REPORT 82 Christopher W. Jenks, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Crawford F. Jencks, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs Michael R. Salamone, ACRP Manager Lawrence D. Goldstein, Senior Program Officer Anthony Avery, Senior Program Assistant Eileen P. Delaney, Director of Publications Margaret B. Hagood, Editor ACRP PROJECT 03-12 PANEL Field of Policy and Planning Mary L. Vigilante, Synergy Consultants, Inc., Seattle, WA (Chair) Kim Marie Berry, General Mitchell International Airport - Milwaukee County (WI), Milwaukee, WI Frederick R. Busch, Denver International Airport, Denver, CO Robert Feteanu, Arup Canada, Inc., Toronto, ON Stacey S. Heaton, Columbus Regional Airport Authority, Columbus, OH Steven Peters, Jacobs, Ft. Worth, TX Nathan Brown, FAA Liaison Tony Diana, FAA Liaison Mark Sedarous, FAA Liaison Christine Gerencher, TRB Liaison

ACRP Report 82 combines a guidebook with an accompanying interactive CD­ROM that provides airport planners with a set of tools (the “toolbox”) that can be used to convert annual airport activity forecasts into forecasts of daily or hourly peak period activity. The toolbox contains two separate modules to address the flow of airport operations as well as passengers. The operations module allows users to estimate current and future design day aircraft operation levels based on user­defined design day parameters. This module further enables users to estimate current and future hourly operations as well as peak period pro­ files, with and without peak spreading. Similarly, the passenger module allows users to esti­ mate current and future design day passenger levels, again based on user­defined design day parameters. In addition, this application allows users to estimate current and future hourly as well as peak­period passenger profiles, also with and without peak spreading, based on user­defined design day parameters. The passenger module also provides an option for modifying hourly profiles with lead and lag factors to assess the impact of passenger flows on passenger processing facilities throughout an airport. The guidebook provides step­by­ step instructions for application of the toolbox, with definition of input components and direction for preparing initial estimates, identification of sources of required information, and specific guidelines on how to address various planning problems and issues. The target audience for this guidebook and the accompanying toolbox is airport plan­ ners and designers, their consultants, and anyone else involved in planning airport airfield, terminal, and landside facilities. Specifically, the tools are designed to scope planning issues and facility requirements, to tailor facility requirements to specific levels of service, and to run multiple scenarios to address uncertainty. A final report documenting the entire research effort is also available as ACRP WOD 14. The need for this guidebook grew out of a recognized industry desire to improve current aviation forecasting procedures applied to airport facility planning, increasing an ability to address complex interactive planning conditions. Forecasts of annual aviation activity, includ­ ing the FAA’s Terminal Area Forecasts (TAFs), are widely available and commonly used as the basis for aviation planning and environmental analyses at commercial airports; however, comparable forecasts of hourly or daily aviation activity that are required to plan and analyze aircraft movements and passenger flows, to program terminal building and other airport facili­ ties, and to support environmental studies and remediation needs are not readily available. Important findings of the research include the following: • The average day peak month metric can lead to very different results depending on the degree of seasonality at an airport; By Lawrence D. Goldstein Staff Officer Transportation Research Board F O R E W O R D

• For most facility requirements, the appropriate peak period metric is less than 1 hour; • The difference between peak and off­peak load factors is declining as airlines use increasingly sophisticated yield management techniques to fill empty seats; • There appears to be a correlation between the percentage of night­time operations and the strength of the economy; and • Lead times (the intervals between the time passengers arrive at the airport and the time they board an aircraft) can vary significantly depending on the airport, the time of day, and security policies. Addressing these findings, this guidebook and accompanying toolbox allow users to test alternative strategies as a function of changing conditions, with important ramifications for both short­ and long­term facility planning and design.

1 Chapter 1  Introduction and Overview 1 1.1 Definitions 3 1.2 Background and Purpose of the Guidelines 3 1.3 Structure and Organization 4 1.4 Overview of Toolbox 5 Chapter 2  Background and Key Definitions 5 2.1 Annual Forecasts 6 2.1.1 Passenger Forecasts 6 2.1.2 Air Cargo Forecasts 7 2.1.3 General Aviation and For­Hire Air Taxi Forecasts 7 2.1.4 Military Operations Forecasts 7 2.1.5 Application of Annual Forecasts to Operational Profiles and Peak Period Forecasts 8 2.2 Design Day 10 2.3 Design Day Profiles 12 2.4 Design Day Schedules 13 2.5 INM Input Profiles 14 2.6 Peak Period 16 Chapter 3  How to Use Guidebook and Toolbox 16 3.1 Identification of Planning Issues and Appropriate Tools 17 3.1.1 Airside Planning 19 3.1.2 Terminal Planning 22 3.1.3 Landside Planning 23 3.1.4 Environmental Planning 25 3.2 Default Factors 25 3.2.1 Day­of­Week Default Factors 25 3.2.2 Time­of­Day Default Factors 25 3.2.3 Peak Spreading Default Factors 26 3.3 Forecast Uncertainty and the Use of Scenarios 26 3.3.1 Forecast Uncertainty 27 3.3.2 Use of Scenarios 27 3.4 Identification of Key Variables 27 3.5 Limits of Guidebook and Toolbox 28 Chapter 4  Preparation of Design Day Forecasts 28 4.1 Aircraft Operations 28 4.1.1 Existing Design Day Operations 28 4.1.2 Future Design Day Operations 28 4.1.3 Use of Toolbox C O N T E N T S

32 4.2 Passengers 32 4.2.1 Existing Design Day Passengers 33 4.2.2 Future Design Day Passengers 33 4.2.3 Use of Toolbox 35 4.3 Average Annual Day 38 4.4 Comments and Cautions 39 Chapter 5  Preparation of Design Day Profiles 39 5.1 Operations 39 5.1.1 Existing Design Day Operations Profiles 41 5.1.2 Use of Toolbox 41 5.2 Design Day Passenger Profiles 41 5.2.1 Existing Design Day Passenger Profiles 47 5.2.2 Forecast Design Day Passenger Profiles 47 5.2.3 Use of the Toolbox 52 5.3 Comments and Cautions 56 Chapter 6  Preparation of Design Day Flight Schedules 56 6.1 Background 57 6.2 Preparation of Design Day Schedules 59 6.2.1 Estimating and Allocating Market Share 60 6.2.2 Design Day Schedule of Aircraft Operations 60 6.2.3 Assignment of Passengers to Design Day Schedule 61 6.3 Comments and Cautions 64 Chapter 7   Preparation of Day/Night and Stage Length  Profiles for Noise Analysis 64 7.1 INM Input for Existing Conditions 66 7.2 Future INM Fleet Mix 69 7.3 Comments and Cautions 70 Chapter 8  Preparation of Peak Period Forecasts 70 8.1 Peak Period Operations 70 8.1.1 Estimates of Existing Peak Period Operations 70 8.1.2 Estimates of Future Peak Period Operations 72 8.1.3 Use of Toolbox 77 8.2 Peak Period Passengers 77 8.2.1 Estimates of Existing Peak Period Passengers 78 8.2.2 Estimates of Future Peak Period Passengers 78 8.2.3 Use of Toolbox 83 8.3 Comments and Cautions 84 Chapter 9  Application of Constraints 84 9.1 Airfield Constraints 86 9.2 Terminal Constraints 87 9.3 Landside Constraints 87 9.4 Policy Constraints 88 9.4.1 Direct Policy Constraints 88 9.4.2 Indirect Constraints 88 9.5 Comments and Cautions 90 Endnotes

A-1 Appendix A   Guidelines for Preparing Peak Period  and Operational Profiles Manual  for Toolboxes B-1 Appendix B  Sources of Data C-1 Appendix C  Default Factors D-1 Appendix D   Suggested Peak Period Definitions  by Facility Type E-1 Appendix E  Glossary