Understanding How Individuals Make Travel and Location Decisions: Implications for Public Transportation (2008)

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15 Introduction The purpose of this project was to explore a broader social context for individual decision making related to residential location and travel behavior. Because residential location and travel behavior have a large effect on society’s consumption of energy, on levels of pollution, and on health, there is great value in increasing our understanding of the mechanism of choice. Better understanding could lead to better insights on the part of planners and decision makers as to how to predict choice and how to influence it through better policies and design, as well as education and communication. While the transportation community has considerable experience in using rational economic models of decision making in exploring residential and travel choice, there is less research on decision-making models from other fields, such as sociol- ogy, psychology, and marketing. This project provides a look at an alternative approach from the field of psychology—the theory of planned behavior (TPB). Although the work done for this project used a different methodology for analysis, the project also had a goal of deriv- ing practical implications and policy guidance for encouraging more use of public transportation and walking. An underlying assumption is that urban congestion and impaired mobility can be mitigated by encouraging people to substitute public transportation and walking for individual automobile use. A related assumption is that if people live in communities that are transit oriented [called compact neighborhoods (CNs) in this research], they will walk and take public transportation more. A practical challenge is, of course, how to promote this kind of behavior in enough instances to have a measurable, beneficial effect on travel conditions. The premise of this re- search is that by gaining a better understanding of the links between individuals’ attitudes, intentions, and behaviors with regard to CNs and alternatives to the automobile, strategies can be better configured and targeted to help achieve the desired outcomes. The goals of this research are thus twofold—to improve understanding of how people make travel and location deci- sions, and to derive practical implications and policy guidance for encouraging more use of public transportation and walk- ing. Given the goals of the research, the following overall objectives were set: • Explore the characteristics of market sectors that are more likely to be favorable to an urban residential environment, particularly an environment characterized as a transit- oriented development (TOD), or as used in this research, a CN. • Explore the characteristics of market sectors that are more likely to be favorable to increased transit use and walking. • Explore the impact of neighborhood type on the use of transit and on walking. • Explore methods for encouraging more walking and tran- sit use. • Explore the TPB as an approach to understanding how individuals make travel and location decisions. In particu- lar, explore the TPB in the context of a decision to move to a CN and to use environmentally friendly travel modes, such as walking and transit. • Examine the power of the TPB to distinguish those market sectors and provide insight into motivating factors. This project follows on the successful “New Paradigms” research program, which examined new structures and approaches for transit agencies (1). One motivation for this follow-on work was to look at new approaches from other fields, such as psychology and social marketing, for moti- vating individuals to choose transit and transit-friendly communities. This research included an extensive review of the literature and interviews with experts in a variety of related fields. A conclusion from the literature and interviews was the value of applying the TPB in an examination of individual decision C H A P T E R 1 Introduction and Research Approach

making for residential and mode choice. Using the TPB, the project team has conducted an extensive amount of original research over a 3-year period. The research has yielded some interesting findings, provided new data for existing research issues, and left plenty of questions to be explored with further research. Overview of the Report This report is divided into 13 chapters. Chapter 1 provides an overview of the report and some definitions. Chapter 2 describes some of the background research on the relationship between land use and transportation. The chapter covers current trends in population and employment locations and in the choice of travel mode in the United States. It examines the effect of land use and development on travel. It also covers the impact of transportation and other factors, such as attitudes and lifestyle, on neighborhood choice. Chapter 3 describes some of the background literature on the TPB, which is the underlying theory behind this research project. The literature covers the application of the TPB in a number of fields. It also covers several applications in transportation. Chapter 4 describes the model for the TPB as presented by Icek Aizen [also spelled as Ajzen], the originator of the theory. Chapter 5 discusses the research plan for this TCRP proj- ect. In addition to the literature review and interviews with experts, the plan included two phases of original research. Phase 1 focused on neighborhood choice, and Phase 2 focused on mode choice. Each phase included a set of focus groups and an Internet panel survey. Chapter 6 provides some selected results from the Phase 1 survey. The results are provided by age-group and survey panel. Chapter 7 presents a market segmentation of the Internet survey respondents. The market segmentation divides the population into five groups with different levels of interest in moving to a CN. Two of the groups are characterized as more positive, and three as more negative. Chapter 7 explores the characteristics and the attitudes of these market segments. Chapter 8 presents an analysis of the relationship between Internet survey respondents’ values and beliefs, neighbor- hood choice, auto ownership, and choice of transit and walk- ing modes. Values and beliefs, neighborhood choice, and auto ownership are all associated with mode choice. Simple contingency tables and structural equation modeling is used to sort out the different effects. Chapter 9 presents an analysis using the TPB for a move to a CN. It examines the relationship between intent to move and respondents’ attitudes toward moving. It also examines the fac- tors that may underlie those attitudes. Chapter 10 presents the results of the Phase 2 Internet panel survey that focused on mode choice. The panelists were randomly divided into three groups that each received a dif- ferent message. Results for two TPB exercises are contrasted. Chapter 11 presents a market segmentation based on respondents’ attitudes toward using transit more and walking more. Four segments are distinguished—two more positive and two more negative. Characteristics of the groups are pre- sented, along with a discussion of what transit service improvements are likely to motivate the groups to increase their use of transit and walking. Chapter 12 presents an analysis following the TPB for increasing transit use and walking. It explores the relationship between respondents’ intent to change mode and their atti- tude. It also examines factors that may underlie those attitudes and potential transit services that may encourage more use of transit and walking. Chapter 13 presents a summary of the practical implica- tions of the research. Definitions This report uses terms that refer to concepts from the field of psychology. This report also refers to terms that have been specifically defined as part of this research. Because many read- ers may not be familiar with these and several other terms used throughout the report, some definitions are provided here. Attitude: A state of mind or feeling. Attitude Toward the Behavior (ATT): The degree to which performance of the behavior is positively or negatively valued by an individual. For example, an individual may regard riding transit as very undesirable or as very desirable. The degree of desirability is that individual’s attitude toward the behavior. Attitude toward the behavior, as defined by the TPB, is shortened in this report to attitude. Auto Availability Level: The term low auto availability refers to a household in which there are fewer cars than adults. The term high auto availability refers to a household in which the number of cars is equal to or greater than the number of adults. Behavior: The observable response in a given situation. In the TPB, behavior is a function of intentions and perceptions of behavioral control or self-confidence, which moderates the effect of intention. Behavioral Beliefs: Beliefs about the likely outcome of a behavior. The behavioral belief is the subjective probability that, for an individual, the behavior will produce a given out- come. For example, a man may believe that if he rides transit, it is highly likely that he will save money. Compact Neighborhood (CN): The concept of a transit- oriented development is represented in this study as a 16

compact neighborhood. In a survey conducted as part of this research, the following definition was given for a compact neighborhood: The neighborhood has good sidewalks, a mix of housing types (including a mix of townhouses, apartments, condos, and single- family dwellings on quarter-acre lots), shopping or restaurants within walking distance, and nearby public transit. You would be able to take public transit to work or to shop, and you would be able to walk, bike, or drive to nearby shops, restaurants, pubs, and a library, but parking would be limited. You would be close to cultural events and entertainment. The neighborhood would be as safe as where you live today. Parking near your home would be limited to one car per household for street parking or you could rent a garage space. In this survey, we will call this a com- pact neighborhood. Respondents to the survey are defined as living in a com- pact neighborhood when (a) there is some form of housing other than a single-family home within one-third mile of the residence; (b) there is a commercial district within one-third mile of the residence; and (c) there is transit service to the neighborhood. If any of the preconditions are lacking, the location is categorized as “not in CN.” Control Beliefs: Our beliefs about the presence of factors that may facilitate or impede performance of the behavior. For example, a woman may be concerned that if she rides transit, she could become stranded if she were to miss the bus. Cronbach’s Alpha: A measure of the reliability of a set of variables for measuring a single construct. Cronbach’s alpha is a statistic computed from all combinations of pairwise cor- relations for a set of variables. It indicates if the variables are successfully measuring a single construct, albeit one contain- ing different substantive concepts. Generally, a measure of alpha should be 0.7 or greater. Green Modes: The term green modes is used to describe the sum of the use of transit and of walking from the survey data. The number of bike trips reported in the data set is extremely small. Therefore, for simplicity, bike trips are not included under the broader definition of green modes. Intention or Intent: Immediate antecedent of a particular behavior. This is the cognitive representation of a person’s readiness to perform a given behavior. Intention is based on at- titude toward the behavior (attitude), subjective norm (subjective norm), and perceived behavioral control (self-confidence), with each predictor weighted for its importance in relation to the behavior and population of interest. For example, a man may intend to take transit to work tomorrow. MaxDiff: An analytical technique (maximum difference) for determining the relative preference that a respondent has for a set of alternatives. The result of a MaxDiff exercise is a set of values that indicate the respondent’s first choice and last choice and where the middle choices lie along an interval scale. Thus, MaxDiff gives more information than simply asking respondents to assign order to a list of alternatives as a means of indicating their preference. MaxDiff requires respondents to pick the alternative they prefer most and the alternative they prefer least from a short subset of alternatives (usually three to six). By exposing the respondents to different subsets of alter- natives and repeating the exercise, it is possible to infer the relative values or “utilities” that the respondents place on all the alternatives. Mean: The mean is simply the average of all the items in a sample. To compute a sample mean, add up all the sample values and divide by the size of the sample. Motivation to Comply: The importance placed on com- plying with others’ expectations. For example, a woman may care about what her parents want her to do. Normative Beliefs: Beliefs about the perceived behavioral expectations of others who are important to an individual. For example, a man may believe that his parents expect that he will take transit and avoid the expense of a car. Outcome Evaluations: Evaluation of a particular outcome. Outcomes can be good or bad, or they can be important or unimportant. For example, a man may believe he can save money using transit, but he may feel that saving money is not very important. Perceived Behavioral Control (PBC): Self-efficacy or self- confidence for performing a particular behavior. For exam- ple, a young person may have more self-confidence about using transit than an older person. In this report, perceived behavioral control is referred to as self-confidence (SCF). Power of Control: Perceived power of factors that may facilitate or impede performance of the behavior. For exam- ple, although a man may feel that he could become stranded if he takes transit, this problem does not really concern him because he has other ways of getting home. Regression: An analysis technique for estimating the rela- tionship between a response or dependent variable and one or more independent variables. Simple linear regression and mul- tiple linear regression are related statistical methods for estimating the relationship between two or more random vari- ables assuming a linear relationship. Simple linear regression refers to a regression with one independent variable, while multiple regression refers to a regression with more than one independent variable. Self-Confidence (SCF): Used in this report to mean the same as perceived behavioral control or self-efficacy. Significance: As used in this report, significance is a statis- tical concept that indicates a probability. For example, a coefficient is considered significant if there is only a 5% chance it could be zero. Another use of the concept is to indicate differences between values. If a difference between two values is significant at the p < .05 level, there is at most a 5% chance that two values are the same. Tables in the text indicate significance of at least 5% with p < .05. 17

Standard Deviation: A statistical measure of the variation or spread in a set of data. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM): Structural equa- tion modeling (SEM) is a statistical technique that is similar to regression analysis, but is not as restrictive in terms of assumptions about the variables involved. SEM is able to han- dle measurement error, correlated independent variables, and many other situations that violate the statistical assump- tions for a multiple linear regression. Subjective Norm (SN): Perceived social pressure to engage or not to engage in a behavior. For example, a woman may believe that there is general social pressure not to ride transit. Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB): A theory of human action developed by Dr. Icek Aizen of the University of Mass- achusetts, Amherst. This is the theory explored in this report, and it is described in Chapter 4. Transit-Oriented Development (TOD): A form of devel- opment that is conducive to increased use of transit by resi- dents. A mixed-use community within walking distance of a transit stop that makes it convenient to travel on foot or by public transportation instead of by car. This usually implies dense development around mass transit stations that pro- vides a range of destinations within walking distance, includ- ing multifamily homes, shops, and workplaces. Utilitarian Walking: In this report, the term walking, or walk trips, refers to trips to a destination, such as the workplace, a restaurant, or a church, for a purpose other than for exercise or pleasure. The former trips are referred to as “utilitarian” walk trips; the latter are referred to as “nonutilitarian” walk trips. Thus, references to “trips” or “total trips” exclude all walking trips taken solely for exercise or pleasure. References to utilitar- ian walk trips do not include any trips by bicycle. 18