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Bibliography and Technical Appendices to Intercity Passenger Rail in the Context of Dynamic Travel Markets (2016)

Chapter: Technical Appendix: Documentation for the Structural Equation Models

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Suggested Citation:"Technical Appendix: Documentation for the Structural Equation Models." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Bibliography and Technical Appendices to Intercity Passenger Rail in the Context of Dynamic Travel Markets. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23504.
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Suggested Citation:"Technical Appendix: Documentation for the Structural Equation Models." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Bibliography and Technical Appendices to Intercity Passenger Rail in the Context of Dynamic Travel Markets. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23504.
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Suggested Citation:"Technical Appendix: Documentation for the Structural Equation Models." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Bibliography and Technical Appendices to Intercity Passenger Rail in the Context of Dynamic Travel Markets. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23504.
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Suggested Citation:"Technical Appendix: Documentation for the Structural Equation Models." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Bibliography and Technical Appendices to Intercity Passenger Rail in the Context of Dynamic Travel Markets. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23504.
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Suggested Citation:"Technical Appendix: Documentation for the Structural Equation Models." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Bibliography and Technical Appendices to Intercity Passenger Rail in the Context of Dynamic Travel Markets. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23504.
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Suggested Citation:"Technical Appendix: Documentation for the Structural Equation Models." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Bibliography and Technical Appendices to Intercity Passenger Rail in the Context of Dynamic Travel Markets. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23504.
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Suggested Citation:"Technical Appendix: Documentation for the Structural Equation Models." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Bibliography and Technical Appendices to Intercity Passenger Rail in the Context of Dynamic Travel Markets. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23504.
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Suggested Citation:"Technical Appendix: Documentation for the Structural Equation Models." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Bibliography and Technical Appendices to Intercity Passenger Rail in the Context of Dynamic Travel Markets. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23504.
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Suggested Citation:"Technical Appendix: Documentation for the Structural Equation Models." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Bibliography and Technical Appendices to Intercity Passenger Rail in the Context of Dynamic Travel Markets. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23504.
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Technical Appendix: Documentation for the Structural Equation Models 107 TECHNICAL APPENDIX: DOCUMENTATION FOR THE STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODELS Introduction This final technical appendix for NCRRP Report 4 presents a series of backup documentation to support the three Attitudinal Models (Rail, Bus, and Rural) and the Theory of Planned Behavior Model. First each model is presented here in ‘landscape’ page layout format. Then, tables of data are provided in ‘portrait’ page layout format, providing the backup data for the full sample for the three Attitudinal Models, and a full sample, Millennials Only, and Older Groups only for the Theory of Planned Behavior Models.

Technical Appendix: Documentation for the Structural Equation Models 108

Technical Appendix: Documentation for the Structural Equation Models 109

Technical Appendix: Documentation for the Structural Equation Models 110

Technical Appendix: Documentation for the Structural Equation Models 111

Technical Appendix: Documentation for the Structural Equation Models 112 The Rail Model Estimate S.E. C.R. P St. Estimate Privacy <--- Education -0.347 0.033 -10.452 *** -0.158 ICT <--- Education 0.1 0.026 3.769 *** 0.062 Auto Orientation <--- Education -0.052 0.021 -2.454 0.014 -0.039 Urbanism <--- Education 0.103 0.021 4.909 *** 0.085 Unsafe <--- Education -0.272 0.026 -10.471 *** -0.131 Expensive <--- Education 0.184 0.034 5.407 *** 0.078 ICT <--- Employment 0.14 0.015 9.279 *** 0.151 Paramters between Latent Factors Unsafe <--- Privacy 0.608 0.021 28.642 *** 0.643 Inconvenience <--- Privacy 0.083 0.015 5.697 *** 0.144 Stressful <--- Privacy -0.129 0.023 -5.547 *** -0.123 Expensive <--- Auto Orientation 0.236 0.031 7.569 *** 0.133 Density <--- Auto Orientation -0.268 0.012 -21.65 *** -0.393 Inconvenience <--- Auto Orientation 0.295 0.022 13.192 *** 0.312 Stressful <--- Auto Orientation -0.145 0.033 -4.43 *** -0.084 RailPropensity <--- Auto Orientation -0.13 0.042 -3.135 0.002 -0.074 Density <--- Urbanism 0.123 0.013 9.804 *** 0.164 Stressful <--- Urbanism 0.179 0.041 4.315 *** 0.094 Inconvenience <--- ICT -0.041 0.015 -2.816 0.005 -0.052 Stressful <--- ICT 0.201 0.029 6.92 *** 0.139 Expensive <--- ICT 0.143 0.026 5.387 *** 0.096 RailPropensity <--- ICT 0.181 0.026 6.891 *** 0.123 Inconvenience <--- Density 0.116 0.024 4.815 *** 0.083 RailPropensity <--- Density 0.102 0.042 2.426 0.015 0.039 Inconvenience <--- Expensive 0.084 0.009 9.289 *** 0.156 RailPropensity <--- Expensive -0.064 0.016 -3.897 *** -0.064 Inconvenience <--- Unsafe 0.288 0.016 17.773 *** 0.474 RailPropensity <--- Unsafe 0.144 0.03 4.863 *** 0.127 Stressful <--- Inconvenience -0.546 0.047 -11.627 *** -0.3 RailPropensity <--- Inconvenience -1.165 0.074 -15.785 *** -0.625 Stressful <--- Expensive 0.071 0.015 4.645 *** 0.073 RailPropensity <--- Stressful 0.343 0.019 18.223 *** 0.334 Loadings from Factor to Observed Variable how likely <--- RailPropensity 1 0.732 would consider <--- RailPropensity 0.88 0.015 57.291 *** 0.704 railtaken <--- RailPropensity 0.098 0.003 29.497 *** 0.473 rail from sp study <--- RailPropensity 0.866 0.024 36.49 *** 0.636 with people I do not know <--- Privacy -0.604 0.021 -29.476 *** -0.527 uncomfortable with strangers <--- Privacy 1 0.858 freedom and indpedence <--- Auto Orientation 1 0.579 less dependent than parents <--- Auto Orientation -1.284 0.045 -28.598 *** -0.58 prefer to share or borrow car <--- Auto Orientation -1.402 0.047 -29.845 *** -0.693 walk to town center <--- Urbanism 1.273 0.053 23.813 *** 0.636 enjoy observing people <--- Urbanism 1 0.602 together could improve <--- Urbanism 0.17 0.008 21.115 *** 0.423 perform tasks, laptop <--- ICT 1 0.709 to receive emails <--- ICT 0.909 0.038 23.978 *** 0.626 own smartphone or tablet <--- ICT 0.256 0.013 19.991 *** 0.376 unsafe by train <--- Unsafe 0.963 0.017 58.079 *** 0.867 crime unruly behavior <--- Unsafe 1 0.827 personal safety <--- Unsafe 0.831 0.018 45.258 *** 0.684 need car at destination <--- Inconvenience 1.54 0.056 27.311 *** 0.599 difficult from destination <--- Inconvenience 1.565 0.053 29.625 *** 0.694 flexibility of schedules <--- Inconvenience 1 0.523 perceived expensive <--- Expensive 1 0.921 less stressful <--- Stressful 1 0.918

Technical Appendix: Documentation for the Structural Equation Models 113 The Bus Model Demographic Estimate S.E. C.R. P St. Estimate Privacy <--- Education -0.351 0.033 -10.692 *** -0.162 ICT <--- Education 0.098 0.026 3.709 *** 0.062 Auto Orientation <--- Education -0.058 0.023 -2.576 0.01 -0.041 Expensive <--- Education -0.187 0.037 -5.083 *** -0.072 Urbanism <--- Education 0.104 0.022 4.818 *** 0.084 Auto OrientationStress <--- Education -0.214 0.034 -6.231 *** -0.087 BusPropensity <--- Education -0.055 0.007 -8.076 *** -0.113 ICT <--- Employment 0.143 0.015 9.472 *** 0.155 Paramters between Latent Factors Density <--- Privacy -0.02 0.006 -3.121 0.002 -0.047 Unsafe <--- Privacy 0.506 0.023 21.829 *** 0.449 Inconvenience <--- Privacy 0.185 0.015 12.444 *** 0.359 Expensive <--- Privacy 0.264 0.021 12.402 *** 0.219 BusPropensity <--- Privacy 0.023 0.005 4.409 *** 0.104 Density <--- AutoOrientation -0.259 0.012 -21.406 *** -0.409 Expensive <--- AutoOrientation 0.183 0.035 5.239 *** 0.101 Inconvenience <--- AutoOrientation 0.285 0.021 13.362 *** 0.367 Stress <--- AutoOrientation -0.278 0.04 -6.872 *** -0.163 BusPropensity <--- AutoOrientation -0.043 0.008 -5.173 *** -0.127 Stress <--- Urbanism 0.26 0.037 7.026 *** 0.132 Density <--- ICT 0.053 0.009 6.005 *** 0.093 Unsafe <--- ICT 0.153 0.025 6.009 *** 0.1 BusPropensity <--- ICT 0.019 0.005 3.687 *** 0.062 Unsafe <--- Density 0.088 0.037 2.411 0.016 0.033 Expensive <--- Density -0.124 0.046 -2.7 0.007 -0.043 BusPropensity <--- Density 0.057 0.009 6.428 *** 0.107 Inconvenience <--- Density 0.116 0.024 4.945 *** 0.095 Stress <--- Density -0.093 0.044 -2.126 0.034 -0.035 Inconvenience <--- Unsafe 0.041 0.01 4.028 *** 0.09 Stress <--- Unsafe -0.142 0.016 -8.711 *** -0.141 Stress <--- Inconvenience -0.422 0.064 -6.581 *** -0.192 BusPropensity <--- Inconvenience -0.164 0.014 -11.564 *** -0.377 Inconvenience <--- Expensive 0.134 0.009 15.318 *** 0.312 Stress <--- Expensive 0.122 0.018 6.795 *** 0.129 BusPropensity <--- Stress 0.083 0.003 24.495 *** 0.418 Loadings from Factor to Observed Variable Intend to take bus <--- BusPropensity 1 0.738 Bus taken on last trip <--- BusPropensity 0.507 0.017 29.669 *** 0.554 Bus chosen in SP <--- BusPropensity 4.615 0.129 35.707 *** 0.712 with people I do not know <--- Privacy -0.621 0.025 -25.144 *** -0.534 uncomfortable with strangers <--- Privacy 1 0.843 freedom and indpedence <--- AutoOrientation 1 0.622 less dependent than parents <--- AutoOrientation -1.272 0.043 -29.331 *** -0.618 prefer to share or borrow car <--- AutoOrientation -1.248 0.047 -26.659 *** -0.664 perform tasks, laptop <--- ICT 1 0.705 to receive emails <--- ICT 0.916 0.04 23.177 *** 0.627 own smartphone or tablet <--- ICT 0.257 0.013 19.699 *** 0.375 walk to town center <--- Urbanism 1.196 0.052 22.93 *** 0.607 enjoy observing people <--- Urbanism 1 0.616 together could improve <--- Urbanism 0.171 0.008 20.925 *** 0.433 personal safety on bus <--- Unsafe 1 0.925 concerned about bus schedule <--- Inconvenience 1 0.466 difficult from destination <--- Inconvenience 1.507 0.067 22.412 *** 0.589 need car at destination <--- Inconvenience 1.741 0.077 22.549 *** 0.596 bus perceived expensive <--- Expensive 1 0.934 bus less stressful <--- Stress 1 0.926

Technical Appendix: Documentation for the Structural Equation Models 114 TPB Model Estimate S.E. C.R. P St. Estimate From Demographics Privacy <--- Education -0.354 0.032 -11.107 *** -0.161 ICT <--- Education 0.102 0.025 4.089 *** 0.065 Unsafe <--- Education -0.276 0.025 -11.041 *** -0.132 Urbanism <--- Education 0.096 0.021 4.502 *** 0.075 ICT <--- Employed 0.400 0.034 11.789 *** 0.185 Direct TPB Predictors RailPropensity <--- Normative 0.344 0.020 17.463 *** 0.301 RailPropensity <--- PBC 0.346 0.026 13.572 *** 0.330 RailPropensity <--- ATB 0.869 0.043 20.048 *** 0.429 Paramters between Latent Factors Unsafe <--- Privacy 0.614 0.020 30.652 *** 0.645 ATB <--- Privacy -0.144 0.014 -10.296 *** -0.235 Inconvenience <--- Privacy 0.076 0.014 5.488 *** 0.127 ATB <--- Auto Orientation -0.154 0.017 -9.189 *** -0.149 Inconvenience <--- Auto Orientation 0.272 0.018 14.840 *** 0.271 Normative <--- Auto Orientation -0.243 0.034 -7.096 *** -0.132 Expensive <--- Auto Orientation 0.245 0.031 7.898 *** 0.134 ATB <--- Urbanism 0.076 0.020 3.789 *** 0.072 PBC <--- Urbanism 0.216 0.037 5.815 *** 0.106 Normative <--- ICT 0.290 0.027 10.908 *** 0.191 PBC <--- ICT 0.247 0.030 8.257 *** 0.149 ATB <--- ICT 0.110 0.015 7.123 *** 0.129 Expensive <--- ICT 0.162 0.026 6.252 *** 0.107 Inconvenience <--- Expensive 0.093 0.008 11.582 *** 0.169 ATB <--- Expensive 0.032 0.007 4.549 *** 0.057 Normative <--- Inconvenience -1.190 0.064 -18.560 *** -0.651 ATB <--- Inconvenience -0.339 0.029 -11.502 *** -0.329 PBC <--- Inconvenience -1.595 0.066 -24.091 *** -0.800 Inconvenience <--- Unsafe 0.309 0.016 19.523 *** 0.492 PBC <--- Unsafe 0.348 0.030 11.456 *** 0.278 Normative <--- Unsafe 0.353 0.030 11.927 *** 0.308 ATB <--- Unsafe -0.086 0.016 -5.385 *** -0.133 Loadings from Factor to Observed Variable how likely <--- RailPropensity 1.000 0.835 would consider <--- RailPropensity 0.948 0.012 78.366 *** 0.860 with people I do not know <--- Privacy -0.619 0.019 -31.954 *** -0.536 uncomfortable with strangers <--- Privacy 1.000 0.852 freedom and indpedence <--- Auto Orientation 1.000 0.569 less dependent than parents <--- Auto Orientation -1.228 0.044 -28.203 *** -0.541 prefer to share or borrow car <--- Auto Orientation -1.515 0.054 -28.192 *** -0.734 less stressful <--- ATB 1.000 0.528 how pleasant <--- ATB 1.583 0.040 40.041 *** 0.841 people would take <--- Normative 1.000 0.781 friends workers would take <--- Normative 0.755 0.017 44.863 *** 0.703 perform tasks, laptop <--- ICT 1.000 0.694 to receive emails <--- ICT 0.943 0.037 25.572 *** 0.637 own smartphone or tablet <--- ICT 0.265 0.012 21.359 *** 0.383 unsafe by train <--- Unsafe 0.968 0.015 63.503 *** 0.871 crime unruly behavior <--- Unsafe 1.000 0.824 personal safety <--- Unsafe 0.856 0.017 49.642 *** 0.699 walk to town center <--- Urbanism 1.123 0.047 23.799 *** 0.580 enjoy observing people <--- Urbanism 1.000 0.633 together could improve <--- Urbanism 0.168 0.008 21.841 *** 0.438 need car at destination <--- Inconvenience 1.388 0.048 28.755 *** 0.552 flexibility of schedules <--- Inconvenience 1.000 0.534 difficult from destination <--- Inconvenience 1.534 0.047 32.981 *** 0.693 how efficicent <--- PBC 1.000 0.852 how possible <--- PBC 0.556 0.013 41.834 *** 0.551 could easily take <--- PBC 0.743 0.015 50.742 *** 0.653 perceived expensive <--- Expensive 1.000 0.921 The Full sample

Technical Appendix: Documentation for the Structural Equation Models 115 TPB Model Estimate S.E. C.R. P St. Estimate Estimate S.E. C.R. P St. Estimate From Demographics Privacy <--- Education -0.392 0.076 -5.140 *** -0.166 -0.338 0.035 -9.757 *** -0.158 ICT <--- Education 0.034 0.054 0.635 n.s 0.024 0.140 0.028 4.983 *** 0.088 Unsafe <--- Education -0.359 0.057 -6.258 *** -0.167 -0.255 0.028 -9.165 *** -0.123 Urbanism <--- Education 0.138 0.049 2.800 0.005 0.101 0.085 0.024 3.620 *** 0.067 ICT <--- Employed -0.045 0.084 -0.529 n.s -0.019 0.434 0.037 11.676 *** 0.205 Direct TPB Predictors RailPropensity <--- Normative 0.229 0.039 5.941 *** 0.219 0.372 0.023 16.363 *** 0.319 RailPropensity <--- PBC 0.354 0.063 5.653 *** 0.355 0.341 0.028 12.101 *** 0.322 RailPropensity <--- ATB 0.871 0.102 8.519 *** 0.479 0.867 0.049 17.838 *** 0.419 Paramters between Latent Factors Unsafe <--- Privacy 0.588 0.045 12.939 *** 0.646 0.621 0.022 27.874 *** 0.641 ATB <--- Privacy -0.102 0.030 -3.455 *** -0.181 -0.153 0.016 -9.643 *** -0.241 Inconvenience <--- Privacy 0.131 0.030 4.353 *** 0.251 0.062 0.016 3.921 *** 0.100 ATB <--- Auto Orientation -0.211 0.037 -5.721 *** -0.204 -0.145 0.019 -7.691 *** -0.140 Inconvenience <--- Auto Orientation 0.177 0.035 5.010 *** 0.184 0.280 0.021 13.292 *** 0.277 Normative <--- Auto Orientation -0.255 0.069 -3.696 *** -0.142 -0.230 0.039 -5.927 *** -0.125 Expensive <--- Auto Orientation 0.150 0.072 2.071 0.038 0.076 0.266 0.034 7.721 *** 0.148 ATB <--- Urbanism 0.084 0.045 1.880 0.060 0.086 0.066 0.023 2.889 0.004 0.061 PBC <--- Urbanism 0.166 0.078 2.113 0.035 0.093 0.228 0.043 5.327 *** 0.108 Normative <--- ICT 0.237 0.065 3.639 *** 0.148 0.292 0.029 9.956 *** 0.193 PBC <--- ICT 0.269 0.079 3.381 *** 0.159 0.226 0.033 6.928 *** 0.136 ATB <--- ICT 0.153 0.044 3.478 *** 0.166 0.107 0.017 6.415 *** 0.126 Expensive <--- ICT 0.177 0.068 2.627 0.009 0.101 0.164 0.028 5.798 *** 0.111 Inconvenience <--- Expensive 0.072 0.015 4.718 *** 0.146 0.098 0.009 10.545 *** 0.174 ATB <--- Expensive 0.042 0.015 2.896 0.004 0.080 0.029 0.008 3.538 *** 0.050 Normative <--- Inconvenience -0.969 0.162 -6.001 *** -0.519 -1.241 0.070 -17.677 *** -0.682 ATB <--- Inconvenience -0.325 0.083 -3.907 *** -0.302 -0.357 0.032 -11.223 *** -0.349 PBC <--- Inconvenience -1.487 0.176 -8.450 *** -0.758 -1.613 0.072 -22.398 *** -0.807 Inconvenience <--- Unsafe 0.299 0.034 8.685 *** 0.519 0.311 0.018 17.490 *** 0.485 PBC <--- Unsafe 0.424 0.081 5.201 *** 0.375 0.315 0.033 9.499 *** 0.246 Normative <--- Unsafe 0.448 0.077 5.826 *** 0.417 0.313 0.032 9.706 *** 0.268 ATB <--- Unsafe -0.023 0.039 -0.592 n.s -0.037 -0.100 0.018 -5.619 *** -0.152 Loadings from Factor to Observed Variable how likely <--- RailPropensity 1.000 0.787 1.000 0.845 would consider <--- RailPropensity 0.964 0.031 30.718 *** 0.835 0.947 0.013 72.428 *** 0.865 with people I do not know <--- Privacy -0.534 0.041 -12.985 *** -0.483 -0.658 0.022 -29.623 *** -0.557 uncomfortable with strangers <--- Privacy 1.000 0.858 1.000 0.847 freedom and indpedence <--- Auto Orientation 1.000 0.534 1.000 0.582 less dependent than parents <--- Auto Orientation -1.230 0.101 -12.190 *** -0.523 -1.172 0.047 -24.760 *** -0.531 prefer to share or borrow car <--- Auto Orientation -1.728 0.147 -11.733 *** -0.758 -1.418 0.056 -25.143 *** -0.716 less stressful <--- ATB 1.000 0.517 1.000 0.531 how pleasant <--- ATB 1.632 0.093 17.614 *** 0.861 1.571 0.044 36.094 *** 0.837 people would take <--- Normative 1.000 0.774 1.000 0.782 friends workers would take <--- Normative 0.867 0.042 20.826 *** 0.769 0.726 0.018 39.526 *** 0.685 perform tasks, laptop <--- ICT 1.000 0.704 1.000 0.688 to receive emails <--- ICT 0.939 0.095 9.854 *** 0.617 0.948 0.040 23.422 *** 0.636 own smartphone or tablet <--- ICT 0.106 0.022 4.817 *** 0.178 0.294 0.015 20.266 *** 0.412 unsafe by train <--- Unsafe 1.014 0.036 28.336 *** 0.873 0.949 0.017 56.404 *** 0.868 crime unruly behavior <--- Unsafe 1.000 0.809 1.000 0.828 personal safety <--- Unsafe 0.871 0.040 21.882 *** 0.692 0.845 0.019 44.262 *** 0.697 walk to town center <--- Urbanism 0.965 0.080 12.022 *** 0.561 1.176 0.057 20.673 *** 0.587 enjoy observing people <--- Urbanism 1.000 0.667 1.000 0.621 together could improve <--- Urbanism 0.181 0.016 11.603 *** 0.514 0.166 0.009 18.746 *** 0.420 need car at destination <--- Inconvenience 1.401 0.114 12.250 *** 0.540 1.391 0.053 26.238 *** 0.557 flexibility of schedules <--- Inconvenience 1.000 0.506 1.000 0.540 difficult from destination <--- Inconvenience 1.591 0.113 14.131 *** 0.697 1.527 0.051 30.010 *** 0.693 how efficicent <--- PBC 1.000 0.864 1.000 0.848 how possible <--- PBC 0.572 0.027 20.876 *** 0.601 0.556 0.015 36.664 *** 0.542 could easily take <--- PBC 0.720 0.032 22.481 *** 0.641 0.752 0.017 45.500 *** 0.657 perceived expensive <--- Expensive 1.000 0.932 1.000 0.918 The Millennials The Older Groups

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TRB's NCRRP Web-Only Document 2: Bibliography and Technical Appendices to Intercity Passenger Rail in the Context of Dynamic Travel Markets documents the resources used to develop NCRRP Report 4: Intercity Passenger Rail in the Context of Dynamic Travel Markets. This report explains the analytical framework and models developed to improve understanding of how current or potential intercity travelers make the choice to travel by rail.

The Integrated Choice/Latent Variable (ICLV) model explores how demand for rail is influenced by not only traditional times and costs but also cultural and psychological variables. The spreadsheet-based scenario analysis tool helps users translate the data generated from the ICLV model into possible future scenarios that take into account changing consumer demand in the context of changing levels of service by competing travel modes.

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