National Academies Press: OpenBook

Method Selection for Travel Forecasting (2017)

Chapter: Appendix D - Performance Metrics Reference

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix D - Performance Metrics Reference." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Method Selection for Travel Forecasting. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24929.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix D - Performance Metrics Reference." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Method Selection for Travel Forecasting. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24929.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix D - Performance Metrics Reference." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Method Selection for Travel Forecasting. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24929.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix D - Performance Metrics Reference." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Method Selection for Travel Forecasting. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24929.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix D - Performance Metrics Reference." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Method Selection for Travel Forecasting. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24929.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix D - Performance Metrics Reference." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Method Selection for Travel Forecasting. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24929.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix D - Performance Metrics Reference." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Method Selection for Travel Forecasting. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24929.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix D - Performance Metrics Reference." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Method Selection for Travel Forecasting. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24929.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix D - Performance Metrics Reference." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Method Selection for Travel Forecasting. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24929.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix D - Performance Metrics Reference." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Method Selection for Travel Forecasting. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24929.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix D - Performance Metrics Reference." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Method Selection for Travel Forecasting. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24929.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix D - Performance Metrics Reference." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Method Selection for Travel Forecasting. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24929.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix D - Performance Metrics Reference." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Method Selection for Travel Forecasting. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24929.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix D - Performance Metrics Reference." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Method Selection for Travel Forecasting. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24929.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix D - Performance Metrics Reference." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Method Selection for Travel Forecasting. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24929.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix D - Performance Metrics Reference." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Method Selection for Travel Forecasting. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24929.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix D - Performance Metrics Reference." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Method Selection for Travel Forecasting. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24929.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix D - Performance Metrics Reference." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Method Selection for Travel Forecasting. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24929.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix D - Performance Metrics Reference." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Method Selection for Travel Forecasting. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24929.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix D - Performance Metrics Reference." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Method Selection for Travel Forecasting. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24929.
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D-1 Performance Metrics Reference A P P E N D I X D Community Measures......................................................................................................................... D-2 Short Description.......................................................................................................................... D-2 Performance Elements................................................................................................................. D-2 Performance Elements for Community Measures ....................................................................... D-2 Economic Measures ........................................................................................................................... D-4 Short Description.......................................................................................................................... D-4 Performance Elements................................................................................................................. D-4 Performance Elements for Economic Measures ......................................................................... D-4 Environmental Measures.................................................................................................................... D-8 Short Description.......................................................................................................................... D-8 Performance Elements................................................................................................................. D-8 Performance Elements for Environmental Measures .................................................................. D-9 Freight Transport Measures ............................................................................................................. D-11 Short Description........................................................................................................................ D-11 Performance Elements............................................................................................................... D-11 Performance Elements for Freight Transport Measures............................................................ D-11 Health and Safety Measures ............................................................................................................ D-14 Short Description........................................................................................................................ D-14 Performance Elements............................................................................................................... D-14 Performance Elements for Health and Safety Measures ........................................................... D-14 Passenger Transport Measures ....................................................................................................... D-16 Short Description........................................................................................................................ D-16 Performance Elements............................................................................................................... D-16 Performance Elements for Passenger Transport Measures...................................................... D-16

D-2 Method Selection for Travel Forecasting: User Guide COMMUNITY MEASURES Short Description Performance categories represents measures that describe the quality of life in a geographic area. Performance Elements Environmental Justice/Social Equity Land Use Schools Performance Elements for Community Measures Environmental Justice/Social Equity Short Description Environmental justice/social equity represents the environmental and mobility impacts on minority populations and low-income populations to achieve an equitable distribution of benefits and burdens. Methods and Metrics Methods Metrics Passenger Vehicle Models Population Synthesis Travel Costs by Income Group Travel Costs for Minorities and Low- income Populations Performance Metrics for Environmental Justice/Social Equity Travel Costs by Income Group Short Description Travel costs by income group represents the cost of travel, segmented by income group, and includes travel time, operations, fares, and parking, among others. Travel Costs for Minorities and Low-Income Populations Short Description Monetary costs for travel by minorities and low-income populations.

Performance Metrics Reference D-3 Land Use Short Description Types of population/dwelling units or employment/commercial buildings in an area. Methods and Metrics Methods Metrics Passenger Vehicle Models Destination Choice Commercial Vehicle Models Destination Choice Access to Services Performance Metrics for Land Use Access to Services Short Description Access to services is a measure of travel times to service employment. Schools Short Description Schools represents the size and location of education facilities. Methods and Metrics Methods Metrics Passenger Vehicle Models Destination Choice Assignment and Microsimulation Models Dynamic Capacity-Constrained Transit Assignment Dynamic Traffic Assignment Frequency-based Transit Assignment Integrated Multiresolution Model Multiclass Equilibrium Traffic Assignment Pedestrian/Bicycle Simulation Route-Path Choice Models Schedule-based Transit Assignment Access to Schools

D-4 Method Selection for Travel Forecasting: User Guide Single-class Equilibrium Traffic Assignment Stochastic User Equilibrium Assignment Traffic Microsimulation Performance Metrics for Schools Access to Schools Short Description Access to schools is a measure of travel times to schools. ECONOMIC MEASURES Short Description Economic measures describe the monetary benefits to the area. Performance Elements Accessibility Economic Development Revenues User Benefits Performance Elements for Economic Measures Accessibility Short Description Performance elements represents people’s time savings in monetary form. Methods and Metrics Methods Metrics Passenger Vehicle Models Destination Choice Assignment and Microsimulation Models Dynamic Capacity-Constrained Transit Assignment Dynamic Traffic Assignment Frequency-based Transit Assignment Integrated Multiresolution Model Access to Jobs

Performance Metrics Reference D-5 Multiclass Equilibrium Traffic Assignment Pedestrian/Bicycle Simulation Route-Path Choice Models Schedule-based Transit Assignment Single-class Equilibrium Traffic Assignment Stochastic User Equilibrium Assignment Traffic Microsimulation Performance Metrics for Accessibility Access to Jobs Short Description Access to jobs is a measure of travel time to employment (by type). Economic Development Short Description Economic development represents time savings in monetary form to firms or businesses. Methods and Metrics Methods Metrics Passenger Vehicle Models Destination Choice Trip Distribution (Gravity) Assignment and Microsimulation Models Dynamic Capacity-Constrained Transit Assignment Dynamic Traffic Assignment Frequency-based Transit Assignment Integrated Multiresolution Model Multiclass Equilibrium Traffic Assignment Route-Path Choice Models Schedule-based Transit Assignment Single-class Equilibrium Traffic Assignment Stochastic User Equilibrium Assignment Access to Jobs in Cluster Employment

D-6 Method Selection for Travel Forecasting: User Guide Other Travel Demand Methods Origin-Destination Matrix Estimation Pivot-Point and Incremental Models Commercial Vehicle Models Commodity Flow Models Supplier Selection Model Trip Distribution (Gravity) Performance Metrics for Economic Development Access to Jobs in Cluster Employment Short Description Access to jobs in cluster employment is a measure of travel times to employment in industries of interest to the region. Revenues Short Description Revenues represents the income generated by tolls, taxes, and fares, among others.

Performance Metrics Reference D-7 Methods and Metrics Methods Metrics Other Travel Demand Methods Direct-Demand Model Assignment and Microsimulation Models Dynamic Capacity-Constrained Transit Assignment Dynamic Traffic Assignment Frequency-based Transit Assignment Integrated Multiresolution Model Multiclass Equilibrium Traffic Assignment Route-Path Choice Models Schedule-based Transit Assignment Stochastic User Equilibrium Assignment Fares Tolls Performance Metrics for Revenues Fares Short Description Fares represent transit operating agency revenues from fees charged to use public transport services. Tolls Short Description Tolls represent tolling agency revenue derived from fees collected from travelers to use a roadway or cross a boundary. User Benefits Short Description User benefits represents monetary increases to the traveler over existing conditions. Methods and Metrics Methods Metrics Passenger Vehicle Models Destination Choice Trip Distribution (Gravity) Value of Time Saved

D-8 Method Selection for Travel Forecasting: User Guide Other Travel Demand Methods Direct-Demand Model Pivot-Point and Incremental Models Assignment and Microsimulation Models Dynamic Capacity-Constrained Transit Assignment Dynamic Traffic Assignment Frequency-based Transit Assignment Integrated Multiresolution Model Multiclass Equilibrium Traffic Assignment Route-Path Choice Models Schedule-based Transit Assignment Commercial Vehicle Models Supplier Selection Model Trip Distribution (Gravity) Performance Metrics for User Benefits Value of Time Saved Short Description Value-of-time saved represents the time saved (or lost) when comparing one alternative to another, converted to monetary form using a value of time for a segment of the population. ENVIRONMENTAL MEASURES Short Description Environmental measures quantify impacts to the natural world. Performance Elements Air Quality Energy Consumption Noise Pollution

Performance Metrics Reference D-9 Performance Elements for Environmental Measures Air Quality Short Description Air quality represents changes in emissions as measured by atmospheric presence of pollutants. Methods and Metrics Methods Metrics Assignment and Microsimulation Models Dynamic Traffic Assignment Integrated Multiresolution Model Multiclass Equilibrium Traffic Assignment Route-Path Choice Models Single-class Equilibrium Traffic Assignment Stochastic User Equilibrium Assignment Traffic Microsimulation Criteria Pollutant Emissions Greenhouse Gas Emissions Performance Metrics for Air Quality Criteria Pollutant Emissions Short Description Criteria pollutant emissions represent tons of emissions (by type) that cause smog, acid rain, and other health hazards. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Short Description Greenhouse gas emissions comprise gasses that enter the atmosphere and absorb and emit radiation within the thermal infrared range. Energy Consumption Short Description Energy consumption represents how much gas and oil transport vehicles use.

D-10 Method Selection for Travel Forecasting: User Guide Models Dynamic Traffic Assignment Integrated Multiresolution Model Multiclass Equilibrium Traffic Assignment Route-Path Choice Models Single-class Equilibrium Traffic Assignment Stochastic User Equilibrium Assignment Traffic Microsimulation Fuel Consumption Performance Metrics for Energy Consumption Fuel Consumption Short Description Fuel consumption reflects the number of gallons of gas required to fuel transport vehicles. Noise Pollution Short Description Noise pollution represents excessive sound from all transport vehicles that adversely affects people or animals. Methods and Metrics Methods Metrics Assignment and Microsimulation

Performance Metrics Reference D-11 Methods and Metrics Methods Metrics Assignment and Microsimulation Models Dynamic Traffic Assignment Integrated Multiresolution Model Multiclass Equilibrium Traffic Assignment Route-Path Choice Models Single-class Equilibrium Traffic Assignment Stochastic User Equilibrium Assignment Traffic Microsimulation Time Above Certain Levels Performance Metrics for Noise Pollution Time Above Certain Levels Short Description Hours above certain levels represents decibels above acceptable health noise levels. FREIGHT TRANSPORT MEASURES Short Description Freight transport measures quantify the movement of goods. Performance Elements Commercial Vehicle Demand Freight Mobility Freight Mode Shares Truck Congestion/Traffic Measures Performance Elements for Freight Transport Measures Commercial Vehicle Demand Short Description Commercial vehicle demand represents the amount of travel made by commercial vehicles transporting goods or providing services.

D-12 Method Selection for Travel Forecasting: User Guide Methods and Metrics Methods Metrics Commercial Vehicle Models Commodity Flow Models Freight and Services Tours and Stops Mode and Shipment Size Mode Choice (Fixed Factors) Stop Sequence and Duration Time of Day (Fixed Factors) Trip Attraction (Regression) Trip Distribution (Gravity) Trip Production (Cross-classification) Vehicle Types and Tour Patterns Number of Commercial Vehicle Trips Performance Metrics for Commercial Vehicle Demand Number of Commercial Vehicle Trips Short Description Number of commercial vehicle trips represents the number of trips a commercial vehicle makes. Freight Mobility Short Description Freight mobility represents the time savings for commercial vehicles transporting goods. Methods and Metrics Methods Metrics Other Travel Demand Methods Origin-Destination Matrix Estimation Commercial Vehicle Models Commodity Flow Models Mode and Shipment Size Mode Choice (Fixed Factors) Supplier Selection Model Supply Chain Model Commodity Flows

Performance Metrics Reference D-13 Performance Metrics for Freight Mobility Commodity Flows Short Description Commodity flows represent the tonnage and value of goods movement from each origin to each destination. Freight Mode Shares Short Description Freight mode shares represents the percentage of freight traveling by different modes such as truck, rail, barge, air, and intermodal, among others. Methods and Metrics Methods Metrics Commercial Vehicle Models Mode and Shipment Size Mode Choice (Fixed Factors) Freight Miles Traveled by Mode Performance Metrics for Freight Mode Shares Freight Miles Traveled by Mode Short Description Freight miles traveled by mode represent the number of miles traveled to carry goods by mode (i.e., truck, rail, air, water, pipeline). Truck Congestion/Traffic Measures Short Description Truck congestion/traffic measures represents volumes and miles traveled by trucks on the roads—typically light, medium, and heavy classifications. Methods and Metrics Methods Metrics Assignment and Microsimulation Models Dynamic Traffic Assignment Integrated Multiresolution Model Intersection Delay Multiclass Equilibrium Traffic Freight Travel Times Truck Delay Times Truck Speeds Truck Volumes

D-14 Method Selection for Travel Forecasting: User Guide Assignment Route-Path Choice Models Traffic Microsimulation Volume-Delay Functions Performance Metrics for Truck Congestion/Traffic Measures Freight Travel Times Short Description Freight travel times represent the number of minutes spent transporting goods from each origin to each destination. Truck Delay Times Short Description Cumulative number of hours trucks spend traveling at speeds below free flow. Truck Speeds Short Description Truck speeds represents the average speed for trucks, summarized by truck and facility type. Truck Volumes Short Description Truck volumes represents the number of trucks on the roadway system, summarized by district, screenline, facility, and area type. HEALTH AND SAFETY MEASURES Short Description Health and safety measures quantify the health and safety benefits for people in the region. Performance Elements Active Transportation Safety Performance Elements for Health and Safety Measures Active Transportation Short Description Active transportation represents volumes and miles traveled for pedestrian and bicycle modes.

Performance Metrics Reference D-15 Methods and Metrics Methods Metrics Passenger Vehicle Models Mode Choice (Disaggregate) Other Travel Demand Methods Direct-Demand Model Assignment and Microsimulation Models Pedestrian/Bicycle Simulation Bike Miles Nonmotorized Volumes Performance Metrics for Active Transportation Bike Miles Short Description Bike miles represent miles of travel by bicycle modes. Nonmotorized Volumes Short Description Nonmotorized volumes are bicycle and pedestrian location counts. Safety Short Description Safety represents the number and severity of accidents on the roadway system. Methods and Metrics Methods Metrics Assignment and Microsimulation Models Dynamic Traffic Assignment Integrated Multiresolution Model Multiclass Equilibrium Traffic Assignment Route-Path Choice Models Single-class Equilibrium Traffic Assignment Stochastic User Equilibrium Assignment Traffic Microsimulation Number of Vehicle Collisions

D-16 Method Selection for Travel Forecasting: User Guide Performance Metrics for Safety Number of Vehicle Collisions Short Description Number of vehicle collisions represents the number and severity of vehicle roadway accidents. PASSENGER TRANSPORT MEASURES Short Description Passenger transport measures quantify the movement of people. Performance Elements Auto Congestion/Traffic Measures Passenger Demand Passenger Mobility Passenger Mode Shares Transit Measures Performance Elements for Passenger Transport Measures Auto Congestion/Traffic Measures Short Description Auto congestion/traffic measures represents volumes and miles traveled of passenger cars on the roadway system. Methods and Metrics Methods Metrics Assignment and Microsimulation Models Dynamic Traffic Assignment Integrated Multiresolution Model Intersection Delay Multiclass Equilibrium Traffic Assignment Route-Path Choice Models Single-class Equilibrium Traffic Assignment Stochastic User Equilibrium Assignment Traffic Microsimulation Auto Speeds Auto Volumes Congested Miles Highway Level of Service (LOS) Passenger Travel Times Person Delay Hours Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Volume-Delay Functions

Performance Metrics Reference D-17 Other Travel Demand Methods Pivot-Point and Incremental Models Performance Metrics for Auto Congestion/Traffic Measures Auto Speeds Short Description Auto speeds is a measure of average speeds for passenger cars. Auto Volumes Short Description Auto volumes represent the total number of passenger cars on a roadway segment or summaries by district, screenline, facility, and area type. Congested Miles Short Description Congested miles represent the number of miles spent at speeds below free flow for all travelers. Highway Level of Service (LOS) Short Description Highway level of service (LOS) is the volume-to-capacity ratio for individual link segments. Passenger Travel Times Short Description Passenger travel times represents the number of minutes individuals spend traveling. Person Delay Hours Short Description Person delay hours represents the cumulative number of hours all travelers spent at speeds below free flow. Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Short Description Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) represents the number of miles traveled by all vehicles.

D-18 Method Selection for Travel Forecasting: User Guide Passenger Demand Short Description Passenger demand represents the number of trips people make in a geographic area. Methods and Metrics Methods Metrics Passenger Vehicle Models Daily Activity Pattern Model Time of Day (Disaggregate) Time of Day (Fixed Factors) Tour Frequency Model Trip Attraction (Regression) Trip Production (Cross-classification) Trip Production (Regression) Other Travel Demand Methods Pivot-Point and Incremental Models Number of Person Trips Performance Metrics for Passenger Demand Number of Person Trips Short Description Number of person trips represents the number of trips an individual makes. Passenger Mobility Short Description Passenger mobility represents time savings for vehicles transporting people. Methods and Metrics Methods Metrics Passenger Vehicle Models Destination Choice Trip Distribution (Gravity) Other Travel Demand Methods Origin-Destination Matrix Estimation Pivot-Point and Incremental Models Passenger Flows

Performance Metrics Reference D-19 Performance Metrics for Passenger Mobility Passenger Flows Short Description Passenger flows represents the number of trips from each origin to each destination in the region. Passenger Mode Shares Short Description Passenger mode shares represents the percentage of people traveling by different modes such as auto, transit, walk, and bike, among others. Methods and Metrics Methods Metrics Passenger Vehicle Models Mode Choice (Disaggregate) Mode Choice (Fixed Factors) Person Miles Traveled (PMT) by Mode Performance Metrics for Passenger Mode Shares Person Miles Traveled (PMT) by Mode Short Description Person miles traveled (PMT) represents the cumulative number of miles people travel in each mode (e.g., auto, transit, walk, bike). Transit Measures Short Description Transit measures represents the volume of and miles traveled by people using public transportation. Methods and Metrics Methods Metrics Passenger Vehicle Models Mode Choice (Disaggregate) Other Travel Demand Methods Direct-Demand Model Pivot-Point and Incremental Models Transit Ridership

D-20 Method Selection for Travel Forecasting: User Guide Models Dynamic Capacity-Constrained Transit Assignment Frequency-based Transit Assignment Schedule-based Transit Assignment Performance Metrics for Transit Measures Transit Ridership Short Description Transit ridership represents the number of people riding public transportation. Assignment and Microsimulation

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TRB's National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Research Report 852: Method Selection for Travel Forecasting presents guidelines for travel-forecasting practitioners to assess the suitability and limitations of their travel-forecasting methods and techniques to address specific policy and planning questions. The report also provides practitioners with the ability to scope model development or improvements so as to attain the desired policy sensitivity within constraints such as institutional, budget, model development time, and resources.

The report is accompanied by a software tool, TFGuide, which illustratively and systematically “guides” the practitioner through the selection of travel-forecasting methods and techniques based on application needs, resource constraints, available data, and existing model structure. NCHRP Web-Only Document 234: Developing a Method Selection Tool for Travel Forecasting documents research efforts and methodology used to produce the report and tool.

Disclaimer - This software is offered as is, without warranty or promise of support of any kind either expressed or implied. Under no circumstance will the National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine or the Transportation Research Board (collectively "TRB") be liable for any loss or damage caused by the installation or operation of this product. TRB makes no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, in fact or in law, including without limitation, the warranty of merchantability or the warranty of fitness for a particular purpose, and shall not in any case be liable for any consequential or special damages.

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