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E-1 Resources Reference a p p e n d i x e Data .....................................................................................................................................................E-2 Short Description...........................................................................................................................E-2 Resources .....................................................................................................................................E-2 Resources for Data .......................................................................................................................E-2 Expertise ............................................................................................................................................E-13 Short Description.........................................................................................................................E-13 Resources ...................................................................................................................................E-13 Resources for Expertise ..............................................................................................................E-14 Hardware ...........................................................................................................................................E-19 Short Description.........................................................................................................................E-19 Resources ...................................................................................................................................E-19 Resources for Hardware .............................................................................................................E-19 Software.............................................................................................................................................E-21 Short Description.........................................................................................................................E-21 Resources ...................................................................................................................................E-21 Resources for Software...............................................................................................................E-21
E-2 Method Selection for Travel Forecasting: User Guide DATA Short Description Data are essential for travel forecasting; includes types of data required for estimation, calibration, validation, and forecasting. Resources Built Environment Data Census Commodity Flow Data Employment Data Establishment Survey Freight Rail/Intermodal Network Global Positioning System Surveys Highway Networks Household Travel Survey Intersection Configurations and Signal Timings Observed Origin-Destination Trip Table Parking Supply Inventory Pedestrian/Bike Counts Pedestrian/Bike Networks Sociodemographic Estimates Stated Preference Surveys Traffic Counts Traffic Speeds Transit Counts Transit Networks Transit On-Board Survey Truck Counts Truck Speeds Truck Surveys Resources for Data Built Environment Data Short Description Includes data on mixed use, density, pedestrian friendliness, bike friendliness, and (occasionally) distance to transit.
Resources Reference E-3 Methods Assignment and Microsimulation Models Pedestrian/Bicycle Simulation Budget $10,000 Census Short Description These data are free and include the American Community Survey and the Public Use Microdata Sample, among others; data typically require some data processing before use. Methods Passenger Vehicle Models Daily Activity Pattern Model Mode Choice (Disaggregate) Mode Choice (Fixed Factors) Population Synthesis Tour Frequency Model Trip Attraction (Regression) Trip Production (Cross-classification) Trip Production (Regression) Other Travel Demand Methods Direct-Demand Model Assignment and Microsimulation Models Integrated Multiresolution Model Pedestrian/Bicycle Simulation Commercial Vehicle Models Trip Attraction (Regression) Budget $5,000 Commodity Flow Data Short Description Monetary value or tons of each commodity produced in one area that is consumed in another area.
E-4 Method Selection for Travel Forecasting: User Guide Methods Commercial Vehicle Models Commodity Flow Models Mode Choice (Fixed Factors) Supplier Selection Model Supply Chain Model Budget $25,000 Employment Data Short Description Includes data on the number of employees in an area by industry grouping (e.g., LEHD). Methods Passenger Vehicle Models Trip Attraction (Regression) Assignment and Microsimulation Models Integrated Multiresolution Model Pedestrian/Bicycle Simulation Commercial Vehicle Models Commodity Flow Models Firm Synthesis Freight and Services Tours and Stops Mode and Shipment Size Stop Sequence and Duration Supplier Selection Model Trip Attraction (Regression) Trip Production (Cross-classification) Vehicle Types and Tour Patterns Budget $5,000 Establishment Survey Short Description Includes a survey of an establishment with truck drivers providing daily diaries of travel.
Resources Reference E-5 Methods Commercial Vehicle Models Firm Synthesis Mode and Shipment Size Stop Sequence and Duration Supplier Selection Model Supply Chain Model Time of Day (Fixed Factors) Vehicle Types and Tour Patterns Budget $220,000 Freight Rail/Intermodal Network Short Description Freight rail/intermodal network represents a network that supports pathfinding for rail/intermodal freight. Methods Commercial Vehicle Models Mode and Shipment Size Budget $50,000 Global Positioning System Surveys Short Description Global positioning system (GPS) surveys trace the path of a trip from the origin to the destination; these tend to be modal traces (e.g., auto, transit, truck, pedestrian, bike). Methods Assignment and Microsimulation Models Pedestrian/Bicycle Simulation Route-Path Choice Models Budget $100,000
E-6 Method Selection for Travel Forecasting: User Guide Highway Networks Short Description Highway networks represents linked and routable networks that include network attributes such as area type, facility type, lanes, speed, and capacity. Methods Passenger Vehicle Models Destination Choice Mode Choice (Disaggregate) Trip Distribution (Gravity) Assignment and Microsimulation Models Dynamic Capacity-Constrained Transit Assignment Dynamic Traffic Assignment Frequency-based Transit Assignment Integrated Multiresolution Model Intersection Delay Multiclass Equilibrium Traffic Assignment Route-Path Choice Models Schedule-based Transit Assignment Single-class Equilibrium Traffic Assignment Stochastic User Equilibrium Assignment Traffic Microsimulation Volume-Delay Functions Other Travel Demand Methods Origin-Destination Matrix Estimation Commercial Vehicle Models Commodity Flow Models Mode and Shipment Size Stop Sequence and Duration Trip Distribution (Gravity) Budget $100,000 Household Travel Survey Short Description Household travel survey that encompasses the region for which the travel model is being developed.
Resources Reference E-7 Methods Passenger Vehicle Models Daily Activity Pattern Model Destination Choice Time of Day (Disaggregate) Tour Frequency Model Transit Pass Ownership Assignment and Microsimulation Models Integrated Multiresolution Model Budget $1,000,000 Intersection Configurations and Signal Timings Short Description Intersection configurations and signal timings includes detailed information on the presence (length) of turn lanes and signal timing, properly formatted for the appropriate software. Methods Assignment and Microsimulation Models Dynamic Traffic Assignment Integrated Multiresolution Model Budget $40,000 Observed Origin-destination Trip Table Short Description Observed origin-destination trip table data can be purchased for cars or trucks based on crowd- sourced location data (e.g., AirSage or ATRI). Methods Assignment and Microsimulation Models Integrated Multiresolution Model Other Travel Demand Methods Origin-Destination Matrix Estimation Pivot-Point and Incremental Models
E-8 Method Selection for Travel Forecasting: User Guide Budget $50,000 Parking Supply Inventory Short Description Parking supply inventory is the inventory of the number and price of parking spaces. Methods Passenger Vehicle Models Parking Location Choice Budget $100,000 Pedestrian/Bike Counts Short Description Pedestrian/bike counts includes observations of pedestrian or bicycle volumes on trails, sidewalks, or roads. Methods Assignment and Microsimulation Models Pedestrian/Bicycle Simulation Budget $25,000 Pedestrian/Bike Networks Short Description Pedestrian/bike networks includes grade, trails, speeds, and other attributes of nonmotorized projects. Methods Assignment and Microsimulation Models Pedestrian/Bicycle Simulation Budget $25,000
Resources Reference E-9 Sociodemographic Estimates Short Description Sociodemographic estimates include household- and person-level demographic estimates at a regional or zonal level. Methods Passenger Vehicle Models Daily Activity Pattern Model Population Synthesis Time of Day (Disaggregate) Tour Frequency Model Trip Attraction (Regression) Trip Production (Cross-classification) Trip Production (Regression) Assignment and Microsimulation Models Integrated Multiresolution Model Commercial Vehicle Models Firm Synthesis Budget $25,000 Stated Preference Surveys Short Description Stated preference surveys used respondentsâ statements about their preferences in a set of transport options to estimate utility functions; these surveys identify tradeoffs in time and cost for each respondent. Budget $175,000 Traffic Counts Short Description Traffic counts includes all vehicles on a roadway facility during a specified period (e.g., hourly, daily).
E-10 Method Selection for Travel Forecasting: User Guide Methods Passenger Vehicle Models Mode Choice (Fixed Factors) Time of Day (Disaggregate) Time of Day (Fixed Factors) Assignment and Microsimulation Models Dynamic Traffic Assignment Integrated Multiresolution Model Intersection Delay Multiclass Equilibrium Traffic Assignment Route-Path Choice Models Single-class Equilibrium Traffic Assignment Stochastic User Equilibrium Assignment Traffic Microsimulation Volume-Delay Functions Other Travel Demand Methods Origin-Destination Matrix Estimation Budget $100,000 Traffic Speeds Short Description Traffic speeds represents observed speed or travel time (minutes) converted to speeds for all vehicles or autos on a link or a trip basis. Methods Assignment and Microsimulation Models Dynamic Traffic Assignment Integrated Multiresolution Model Intersection Delay Route-Path Choice Models Traffic Microsimulation Volume-Delay Functions Budget $95,000
Resources Reference E-11 Transit Counts Short Description Transit counts represents the volume of riders on public transportation modes by line for a specified period (e.g., hourly, daily). Methods Passenger Vehicle Models Mode Choice (Fixed Factors) Other Travel Demand Methods Direct-Demand Model Assignment and Microsimulation Models Dynamic Capacity-Constrained Transit Assignment Frequency-based Transit Assignment Route-Path Choice Models Schedule-based Transit Assignment Budget $95,000 Transit Networks Short Description Transit networks represent linked and routable transit networks with attributes such as routes, stops, frequency of service, hours of service, and dwell times, among others. Methods Passenger Vehicle Models Mode Choice (Disaggregate) Other Travel Demand Methods Direct-Demand Model Assignment and Microsimulation Models Dynamic Capacity-Constrained Transit Assignment Frequency-based Transit Assignment Route-Path Choice Models Schedule-based Transit Assignment Budget $100,000
E-12 Method Selection for Travel Forecasting: User Guide Transit On-board Survey Short Description Transit on-board surveys are surveys of transit riders collected on board to understand mode of access/egress, origin and destination patterns, and demographic characteristics of riders. Methods Passenger Vehicle Models Mode Choice (Disaggregate) Transit Pass Ownership Other Travel Demand Methods Direct-Demand Model Assignment and Microsimulation Models Route-Path Choice Models Budget $175,000 Truck Counts Short Description Truck counts are vehicle classification counts that segment medium and heavy trucks from total traffic counts. Methods Assignment and Microsimulation Models Integrated Multiresolution Model Multiclass Equilibrium Traffic Assignment Route-Path Choice Models Commercial Vehicle Models Time of Day (Fixed Factors) Budget $50,000
Resources Reference E-13 Truck Speeds Short Description Truck speeds are observed speeds or travel times (minutes) converted to speeds for trucks on a link or trip basis. Methods Assignment and Microsimulation Models Route-Path Choice Models Budget $50,000 Truck Surveys Short Description Truck surveys involve collecting data on truck movements, including establishment data, start and stop times for each pick-up and drop-off, and commodities, among other types of data. Methods Assignment and Microsimulation Models Route-Path Choice Models Commercial Vehicle Models Freight and Services Tours and Stops Mode and Shipment Size Stop Sequence and Duration Supply Chain Model Vehicle Types and Tour Patterns Budget $1,000,000 EXPERTISE Short Description Expertise often refers to training and learning opportunities for agency staff. Resources Advanced Travel Forecasting Background Dynamic Traffic Assignment
E-14 Method Selection for Travel Forecasting: User Guide Freight Background Limited Travel Forecasting Background Model Estimation Skills Standard Travel Forecasting Background Statistics Background Traffic Microsimulation Background Traffic OperationsâHighway Capacity Manual Resources for Expertise Advanced Travel Forecasting Background Short Description Includes webinars, online training, classes, and on-the-job training for staff. Methods Passenger Vehicle Models Daily Activity Pattern Model Destination Choice Population Synthesis Time of Day (Disaggregate) Tour Frequency Model Transit Pass Ownership Assignment and Microsimulation Models Dynamic Capacity-Constrained Transit Assignment Integrated Multiresolution Model Route-Path Choice Models Commercial Vehicle Models Firm Synthesis Freight and Services Tours and Stops Mode and Shipment Size Stop Sequence and Duration Supplier Selection Model Supply Chain Model Vehicle Types and Tour Patterns Budget $35,000
Resources Reference E-15 Dynamic Traffic Assignment Short Description Includes webinars, online training, classes, and on-the-job training for staff. Methods Assignment and Microsimulation Models Dynamic Traffic Assignment Intersection Delay Budget $35,000 Freight Background Short Description Includes webinars, online training, classes, and on-the-job training for staff. Methods Commercial Vehicle Models Commodity Flow Models Freight and Services Tours and Stops Mode and Shipment Size Mode Choice (Fixed Factors) Stop Sequence and Duration Supplier Selection Model Supply Chain Model Vehicle Types and Tour Patterns Budget $35,000 Limited Travel Forecasting Background Short Description Limited travel forecasting background includes webinars, online training, classes, and on-the-job training for one staff person. Methods Other Travel Demand Methods Direct-Demand Model
E-16 Method Selection for Travel Forecasting: User Guide Origin-Destination Matrix Estimation Budget $15,000 Model Estimation Skills Short Description Model estimation skills includes webinars, online training, classes, and on-the-job training for staff. Methods Passenger Vehicle Models Parking Location Choice Budget $35,000 Standard Travel Forecasting Background Short Description Standard travel forecasting background includes webinars, online training, classes, and on-the- job training for two staff. Methods Passenger Vehicle Models Mode Choice (Disaggregate) Mode Choice (Fixed Factors) Parking Location Choice Time of Day (Fixed Factors) Trip Attraction (Regression) Trip Distribution (Gravity) Trip Production (Cross-classification) Trip Production (Regression) Assignment and Microsimulation Models Dynamic Traffic Assignment Frequency-based Transit Assignment Integrated Multiresolution Model Multiclass Equilibrium Traffic Assignment Schedule-based Transit Assignment Single-class Equilibrium Traffic Assignment
Resources Reference E-17 Stochastic User Equilibrium Assignment Volume-Delay Functions Other Travel Demand Methods Pivot-Point and Incremental Models Commercial Vehicle Models Commodity Flow Models Mode Choice (Fixed Factors) Time of Day (Fixed Factors) Trip Attraction (Regression) Trip Distribution (Gravity) Trip Production (Cross-classification) Budget $25,000 Statistics Background Short Description Requires statistics background in standard techniques; experience with Bayesian analysis techniques is helpful. Methods Passenger Vehicle Models Daily Activity Pattern Model Destination Choice Mode Choice (Disaggregate) Parking Location Choice Population Synthesis Time of Day (Disaggregate) Tour Frequency Model Transit Pass Ownership Trip Distribution (Gravity) Assignment and Microsimulation Models Integrated Multiresolution Model Route-Path Choice Models Other Travel Demand Methods Origin-Destination Matrix Estimation Commercial Vehicle Models Firm Synthesis Freight and Services Tours and Stops
E-18 Method Selection for Travel Forecasting: User Guide Mode and Shipment Size Stop Sequence and Duration Supplier Selection Model Supply Chain Model Trip Attraction (Regression) Trip Distribution (Gravity) Trip Production (Cross-classification) Vehicle Types and Tour Patterns Budget $15,000 Traffic Microsimulation Background Short Description Requires traffic microsimulation background, including training on the theory and practice of microsimulation of movement. Methods Assignment and Microsimulation Models Integrated Multiresolution Model Pedestrian/Bicycle Simulation Traffic Microsimulation Budget $35,000 Traffic OperationsâHighway Capacity Manual Short Description Requires knowledge of how traffic affects speed and speed-flow curves in Highway Capacity Manual. Methods Assignment and Microsimulation Models Integrated Multiresolution Model Route-Path Choice Models Traffic Microsimulation Volume-Delay Functions
Resources Reference E-19 Budget $25,000 HARDWARE Short Description Hardware is a computer that applies travel forecasting methods using specialized software. Resources High-performance Hardware Standard Hardware Resources for Hardware High-performance Hardware Short Description High-performance hardware includes 2â6 high-end personal computers and the cost can vary based on the exact number needed to distribute computing across the computersâ processors. Methods Assignment and Microsimulation Models Dynamic Capacity-Constrained Transit Assignment Dynamic Traffic Assignment Integrated Multiresolution Model Intersection Delay Pedestrian/Bicycle Simulation Traffic Microsimulation Budget $30,000 Standard Hardware Short Description Standard hardware represents a desktop personal computer that has multiple cores and significant memory to handle most travel forecasting methods for small- or medium-size regions. Methods Passenger Vehicle Models
E-20 Method Selection for Travel Forecasting: User Guide Daily Activity Pattern Model Destination Choice Mode Choice (Disaggregate) Mode Choice (Fixed Factors) Parking Location Choice Population Synthesis Time of Day (Disaggregate) Time of Day (Fixed Factors) Tour Frequency Model Transit Pass Ownership Trip Attraction (Regression) Trip Distribution (Gravity) Trip Production (Cross-classification) Trip Production (Regression) Other Travel Demand Methods Direct-Demand Model Origin-Destination Matrix Estimation Pivot-Point and Incremental Models Assignment and Microsimulation Models Frequency-based Transit Assignment Multiclass Equilibrium Traffic Assignment Route-Path Choice Models Schedule-based Transit Assignment Single-class Equilibrium Traffic Assignment Stochastic User Equilibrium Assignment Volume-Delay Functions Commercial Vehicle Models Commodity Flow Models Firm Synthesis Freight and Services Tours and Stops Mode and Shipment Size Mode Choice (Fixed Factors) Stop Sequence and Duration Supplier Selection Model Supply Chain Model Time of Day (Fixed Factors) Trip Attraction (Regression) Trip Distribution (Gravity) Trip Production (Cross-classification) Vehicle Types and Tour Patterns
Resources Reference E-21 Budget $20,000 SOFTWARE Short Description Software is a program that applies travel forecasting methods using a computer (hardware). Resources Activity-based Software Custom Programming Dynamic Traffic Assignment Package Model Estimation Software Pedestrian/Bicycle Simulation Software Traffic Microsimulation Software Transportation Network Planning Package Resources for Software Activity-based Software Short Description Includes the time required to install and begin using the software; most activity-based model software platforms are free. Methods Passenger Vehicle Models Daily Activity Pattern Model Parking Location Choice Transit Pass Ownership Budget $15,000 Custom Programming Short Description Includes setting requirements, alpha and beta testing, and a user-friendly interface; varies widely depending on scope.
E-22 Method Selection for Travel Forecasting: User Guide Methods Passenger Vehicle Models Parking Location Choice Population Synthesis Assignment and Microsimulation Models Integrated Multiresolution Model Intersection Delay Commercial Vehicle Models Commodity Flow Models Firm Synthesis Freight and Services Tours and Stops Mode and Shipment Size Stop Sequence and Duration Supplier Selection Model Supply Chain Model Vehicle Types and Tour Patterns Budget $450,000 Dynamic Traffic Assignment Package Short Description Network-based software to simulate traffic dynamically. Methods Assignment and Microsimulation Models Dynamic Traffic Assignment Budget $45,000 Model Estimation Software Short Description Model estimation software includes software such as ALOGIT or Limdep; Biogeme is an open- source software option for model estimation. Budget $25,000
Resources Reference E-23 Pedestrian/Bicycle Simulation Software Short Description Pedestrian/bicycle simulation software is software that simulates pedestrian or bicycle travel. Methods Assignment and Microsimulation Models Pedestrian/Bicycle Simulation Budget $45,000 Traffic Microsimulation Software Short Description Traffic microsimulation software simulates and reports movements of individual vehicles. Methods Assignment and Microsimulation Models Integrated Multiresolution Model Traffic Microsimulation Budget $45,000 Transportation Network Planning Package Short Description A transportation network planning package is travel forecasting software that implements 4-step planning methods with network and matrix data processing. Methods Passenger Vehicle Models Destination Choice Mode Choice (Disaggregate) Mode Choice (Fixed Factors) Time of Day (Disaggregate) Time of Day (Fixed Factors) Tour Frequency Model Trip Attraction (Regression)
E-24 Method Selection for Travel Forecasting: User Guide Trip Distribution (Gravity) Trip Production (Cross-classification) Trip Production (Regression) Other Travel Demand Methods Direct-Demand Model Origin-Destination Matrix Estimation Pivot-Point and Incremental Models Assignment and Microsimulation Models Dynamic Capacity-Constrained Transit Assignment Dynamic Traffic Assignment Frequency-based Transit Assignment Integrated Multiresolution Model Multiclass Equilibrium Traffic Assignment Route-Path Choice Models Schedule-based Transit Assignment Single-class Equilibrium Traffic Assignment Stochastic User Equilibrium Assignment Volume-Delay Functions Commercial Vehicle Models Commodity Flow Models Mode Choice (Fixed Factors) Time of Day (Fixed Factors) Trip Attraction (Regression) Trip Distribution (Gravity) Trip Production (Cross-classification) Budget $35,000
Abbreviations and acronyms used without definitions in TRB publications: A4A Airlines for America AAAE American Association of Airport Executives AASHO American Association of State Highway Officials AASHTO American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials ACIâNA Airports Council InternationalâNorth America ACRP Airport Cooperative Research Program ADA Americans with Disabilities Act APTA American Public Transportation Association ASCE American Society of Civil Engineers ASME American Society of Mechanical Engineers ASTM American Society for Testing and Materials ATA American Trucking Associations CTAA Community Transportation Association of America CTBSSP Commercial Truck and Bus Safety Synthesis Program DHS Department of Homeland Security DOE Department of Energy EPA Environmental Protection Agency FAA Federal Aviation Administration FAST Fixing Americaâs Surface Transportation Act (2015) FHWA Federal Highway Administration FMCSA Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration FRA Federal Railroad Administration FTA Federal Transit Administration HMCRP Hazardous Materials Cooperative Research Program IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers ISTEA Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 ITE Institute of Transportation Engineers MAP-21 Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act (2012) NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NASAO National Association of State Aviation Officials NCFRP National Cooperative Freight Research Program NCHRP National Cooperative Highway Research Program NHTSA National Highway Traffic Safety Administration NTSB National Transportation Safety Board PHMSA Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration RITA Research and Innovative Technology Administration SAE Society of Automotive Engineers SAFETEA-LU Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (2005) TCRP Transit Cooperative Research Program TDC Transit Development Corporation TEA-21 Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century (1998) TRB Transportation Research Board TSA Transportation Security Administration U.S.DOT United States Department of Transportation
TRA N SPO RTATIO N RESEA RCH BO A RD 500 Fifth Street, N W W ashington, D C 20001 A D D RESS SERV ICE REQ U ESTED N O N -PR O FIT O R G . U .S. PO STA G E PA ID C O LU M B IA , M D PER M IT N O . 88 M ethod Selection for Travel Forecasting: U ser G uide N CH RP Research Report 852 TRB ISBN 978-0-309-44658-7 9 7 8 0 3 0 9 4 4 6 5 8 7 9 0 0 0 0
