National Academies Press: OpenBook
« Previous: Definitions of Automated Vehicles and Connected Vehicles
Page 7
Suggested Citation:"Framework for Planning and Modeling CAVs." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles, Volume 1: Executive Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25319.
×
Page 7
Page 8
Suggested Citation:"Framework for Planning and Modeling CAVs." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles, Volume 1: Executive Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25319.
×
Page 8

Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

7 Framework for Planning and Modeling CAVs A framework for forecasting CAVs includes five elements: • Data, • Planning context, • Modeling, • CAV adoption timeline, and • Communication of uncertainty. The first three elements—data, planning, and modeling—combine to create a forecasting environment. The typical planning process includes developing a vision for transportation in a region, setting goals and performance measures as targets, collecting data, building models from the data, and using models in either a predictive or an exploratory mode to evaluate alternative transportation investments. The fourth element concerns the timeline within the planning horizon and the level of advancement and adoption of automated transportation technologies. The timeline in Figure 1 indicates that data are collected in the past and planning occurs in the present. The CAV adoption timeline arrow indicates that an agreement needs to be made on the level of adoption/advancement of CAV technology—and the rate of adoption of the technology— over the planning/modeling timeline period. No assumed time period is indicated in the figure. Figure 1. Framework for CAV planning and modeling.

8 Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles The last element, communication, involves the need for the analyst to convey the level of uncertainty associated with the model results to decision makers and stakeholders. A situation that analysts commonly face in using this framework is a de facto interpretation of results as predictive. A better method is to determine at initial project scoping whether the analysis is going to be based on predictive, data-supported modeling or on exploratory techniques, which should not be taken as a prediction.

Next: Planning Context »
Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles, Volume 1: Executive Summary Get This Book
×
MyNAP members save 10% online.
Login or Register to save!
Download Free PDF

TRB's National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Research Report 896: Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles, Volume 1: Executive Summary summarizes guidelines to help agencies update their modeling and forecasting tools to address expected impacts of connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) on transportation supply, road capacity, and travel demand components.

Under requirements for long-range transportation planning, state departments of transportation and regional metropolitan planning organizations are required to have a multimodal transportation plan with a minimum time horizon of 20 years.

Because manufacturers and shared fleet operators suggest that CAVs will be present on the highway system in significant numbers well before 2038, the planning community will require procedures and methods to address the potential positive and negative direct and indirect outcomes from their deployment.

Volume 1 conveys the key findings of NCHRP Research Report 896: Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles, Volume 2: Guidance. Volume 2 explores ways to develop new planning and modeling processes that include CAVs in the transportation environment.

The research report is accompanied by a PowerPoint presentation that can be adapted for presentations to agency decision makers.

  1. ×

    Welcome to OpenBook!

    You're looking at OpenBook, NAP.edu's online reading room since 1999. Based on feedback from you, our users, we've made some improvements that make it easier than ever to read thousands of publications on our website.

    Do you want to take a quick tour of the OpenBook's features?

    No Thanks Take a Tour »
  2. ×

    Show this book's table of contents, where you can jump to any chapter by name.

    « Back Next »
  3. ×

    ...or use these buttons to go back to the previous chapter or skip to the next one.

    « Back Next »
  4. ×

    Jump up to the previous page or down to the next one. Also, you can type in a page number and press Enter to go directly to that page in the book.

    « Back Next »
  5. ×

    To search the entire text of this book, type in your search term here and press Enter.

    « Back Next »
  6. ×

    Share a link to this book page on your preferred social network or via email.

    « Back Next »
  7. ×

    View our suggested citation for this chapter.

    « Back Next »
  8. ×

    Ready to take your reading offline? Click here to buy this book in print or download it as a free PDF, if available.

    « Back Next »
Stay Connected!