Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: 2017 Earth Science and Applications from Space Decadal Survey Table 3.2." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Airborne Platforms to Advance NASA Earth System Science Priorities: Assessing the Future Need for a Large Aircraft. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26079.
×
Appendix D
2017 Earth Science and Applications from Space Decadal Survey Table 3.2
Table 3.2 Science and Applications Priorities for the Decade 2017-2027—The Science and Applications Portion of the Full Science and Applications Traceability Matrix (SATM) in Appendix B
GLOBAL HYDROLOGICAL CYCLES AND WATER RESOURCES PANEL
| Societal or Science Question/Goal | Earth Science/Applications Objective | Science/Applications Importance |
|---|---|---|
| QUESTION H-1. How is the water cycle changing? Are changes in evapotranspiration and precipitation accelerating, with greater rates of evapotranspiration and thereby precipitation, and how are these changes expressed in the space-time distribution of rainfall, snowfall, evapotranspiration, and the frequency and magnitude of extremes such as droughts and floods? | H-1a. Develop and evaluate an integrated Earth system analysis with sufficient observational input to accurately quantify the components of the water and energy cycles and their interactions, and to close the water balance from headwater catchments to continental-scale river basins. | Most Important |
| H-1b. Quantify rates of precipitation and its phase (rain and snow/ice) worldwide at convective and orographic scales suitable to capture flash floods and beyond. | Most Important | |
| H-1c. Quantify rates of snow accumulation, snowmelt, ice melt, and sublimation from snow and ice worldwide at scales driven by topographic variability. | Most Important | |
| QUESTION H-2. How do anthropogenic changes in climate, land use, water use, and water storage interact and modify the water and energy cycles locally, regionally, and globally, and what are the short- and long-term consequences? | H-2a. Quantify how changes in land use, water use, and water storage affect evapotranspiration rates, and how these in turn affect local and regional precipitation systems, groundwater recharge, temperature extremes, and carbon cycling. | Very Important |
| H-2b. Quantify the magnitude of anthropogenic processes that cause changes in radiative forcing, temperature, snowmelt, and ice melt, as they alter downstream water quantity and quality. | Important | |
| H-2c. Quantify how changes in land use, land cover, and water use related to agricultural activities, food production, and forest management affect water quality and especially groundwater recharge, threatening sustainability of future water supplies. | Most Important |
Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: 2017 Earth Science and Applications from Space Decadal Survey Table 3.2." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Airborne Platforms to Advance NASA Earth System Science Priorities: Assessing the Future Need for a Large Aircraft. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26079.
×
| Societal or Science Question/Goal | Earth Science/Applications Objective | Science/Applications Importance |
|---|---|---|
| QUESTION H-3. How do changes in the water cycle impact local and regional freshwater availability, alter the biotic life of streams, and affect ecosystems and the services these provide? | H-3a. Develop methods and systems for monitoring water quality for human health and ecosystem services. | Important |
| H-3b. Monitor and understand the coupled natural and anthropogenic processes that change water quality, fluxes, and storages in and between all reservoirs (atmosphere, rivers, lakes, groundwater, and glaciers) and the response to extreme events. | Important | |
| H-3c. Determine structure, productivity, and health of plants to constrain estimates of evapotranspiration. | Important | |
| QUESTION H-4. How does the water cycle interact with other Earth system processes to change the predictability and impacts of hazardous events and hazard chains (e.g., floods, wildfires, landslides, coastal loss, subsidence, droughts, human health, and ecosystem health), and how do we improve preparedness and mitigation of water- related extreme events? | H-4a. Monitor and understand hazard response in rugged terrain and land margins to heavy rainfall, temperature, and evaporation extremes, and strong winds at multiple temporal and spatial scales. | Very Important |
| H-4b. Quantify key meteorological, glaciological, and solid Earth dynamical and state variables and processes controlling flash floods and rapid hazard chains to improve detection, prediction, and preparedness. (This is a critical socioeconomic priority that depends on success of addressing H-1c and H-4a.) | Important | |
| H-4c. Improve drought monitoring to forecast short-term impacts more accurately and to assess potential mitigations. | Important | |
| H-4d. Understand linkages between anthropogenic modification of the land, including fire suppression, land use, and urbanization on frequency of, and response to, hazards. (This is tightly linked to H-2a, H-2b, H-4a, H-4b, and H-4c.) |
Important |
Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: 2017 Earth Science and Applications from Space Decadal Survey Table 3.2." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Airborne Platforms to Advance NASA Earth System Science Priorities: Assessing the Future Need for a Large Aircraft. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26079.
×
WEATHER AND AIR QUALITY PANEL
| Societal or Science Question/Goal | Earth Science/Applications Objective | Science/Applications Importance |
|---|---|---|
| QUESTION W-1. What planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes are integral to the air-surface (land, ocean, and sea ice) exchanges of energy, momentum, and mass, and how do these impact weather forecasts and air quality simulations? | W-1a. Determine the effects of key boundary layer processes on weather, hydrological, and air quality forecasts at minutes to subseasonal time scales. | Most Important |
| QUESTION W-2. How can environmental predictions of weather and air quality be extended to seamlessly forecast Earth system conditions at lead times of 1 week to 2 months? | W-2a. Improve the observed and modeled representation of natural, low-frequency modes of weather/climate variability (e.g., MJO, ENSO), including upscale interactions between the large-scale circulation and organization of convection and slowly varying boundary processes to extend the lead time of useful prediction skills by 50% for forecast times of 1 week to 2 months. |
Most Important |
| QUESTION W-3. How do spatial variations in surface characteristics (influencing ocean and atmospheric dynamics, thermal inertia, and water) modify transfer between domains (air, ocean, land, and cryosphere) and thereby influence weather and air quality? | W-3a. Determine how spatial variability in surface characteristics modifies regional cycles of energy, water, and momentum (stress) to an accuracy of 10 W/m2 in the enthalpy flux, and 0.1 N/m2 in stress, and observe total precipitation to an average accuracy of 15% over oceans and/or 25% over land and ice surfaces averaged over a 100 × 100 km region and 2- to 3-day time period. |
Very Important |
| QUESTION W-4. Why do convective storms, heavy precipitation, and clouds occur exactly when and where they do? | W-4a. Measure the vertical motion within deep convection to within 1 m/s and heavy precipitation rates to within 1 mm/hour to improve model representation of extreme precipitation and to determine convective transport and redistribution of mass, moisture, momentum, and chemical species. | Most Important |
Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: 2017 Earth Science and Applications from Space Decadal Survey Table 3.2." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Airborne Platforms to Advance NASA Earth System Science Priorities: Assessing the Future Need for a Large Aircraft. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26079.
×
| Societal or Science Question/Goal | Earth Science/Applications Objective | Science/Applications Importance |
|---|---|---|
| QUESTION W-5. What processes determine the spatiotemporal structure of important air pollutants and their concomitant adverse impact on human health, agriculture, and ecosystems? | W-5a. Improve the understanding of the processes that determine air pollution distributions and aid estimation of global air pollution impacts on human health and ecosystems by reducing uncertainty to <10% of vertically resolved tropospheric fields (including surface concentrations) of speciated particulate matter (PM), ozone (O3), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). | Most Important |
| QUESTION W-6. What processes determine the long-term variations and trends in air pollution and their subsequent long-term recurring and cumulative impacts on human health, agriculture, and ecosystems? | W-6a. Characterize long-term trends and variations in global, vertically resolved speciated PM, O3, and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) trends (within 20%/yr), which are necessary for the determination of controlling processes and estimation of health effects and impacts on agriculture and ecosystems. | Important |
| QUESTION W-7. What processes determine observed tropospheric ozone (O3) variations and trends and what are the concomitant impacts of these changes on atmospheric composition/chemistry and climate? | W-7a. Characterize tropospheric O3 variations, including stratospheric-tropospheric exchange of O3 and impacts on surface air quality and background levels. | Important |
| QUESTION W-8. What processes determine observed atmospheric methane (CH4) variations and trends, and what are the subsequent impacts of these changes on atmospheric composition/chemistry and climate? | W-8a. Reduce uncertainty in tropospheric CH4 concentrations and in CH4 emissions, including uncertainties on the factors that affect natural fluxes. | Important |
Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: 2017 Earth Science and Applications from Space Decadal Survey Table 3.2." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Airborne Platforms to Advance NASA Earth System Science Priorities: Assessing the Future Need for a Large Aircraft. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26079.
×
| Societal or Science Question/Goal | Earth Science/Applications Objective | Science/Applications Importance |
|---|---|---|
| QUESTION W-9. What processes determine cloud microphysical properties and their connections to aerosols and precipitation? | W-9a. Characterize the microphysical processes and interactions of hydrometeors by measuring the hydrometeor distribution and precipitation rate to within 5%. | Important |
| QUESTION W-10. How do clouds affect the radiative forcing at the surface and contribute to predictability on time scales from minutes to subseasonal? | W-10a. Quantify the effects of clouds of all scales on radiative fluxes, including on the boundary layer evolution. Determine the structure, evolution, and physical/dynamical properties of clouds on all scales, including small-scale cumulus clouds. | Important |
MARINE AND TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS AND NATURAL RESOURCES MANAGEMENT PANEL
| Societal or Science Question/Goal | Earth Science/Applications Objective | Science/Applications Importance |
|---|---|---|
| QUESTION E-1. What are the structure, function, and biodiversity of Earth’s ecosystems, and how and why are they changing in time and space?a | E-1a. Quantify the distribution of the functional traits, functional types, and composition of terrestrial and shallow aquatic vegetation and marine biomass, spatially and over time. | Very Important |
| E-1b. Quantify the global three-dimensional (3D) structure of terrestrial vegetation and 3D distribution of marine biomass within the euphotic zone, spatially and over time. | Most Important | |
| E-1c. Quantify the physiological dynamics of terrestrial and aquatic primary producers. | Most Important | |
| E-1d. Quantify moisture status of soils. | Important | |
| E-1e. Support targeted species detection and analysis (e.g., foundation species, invasive species, indicator species, etc.). | Important | |
| QUESTION E-2. What are the fluxes (of carbon, water, nutrients, and energy) between ecosystems and the atmosphere, the ocean, and the solid Earth, and how and why are they changing? | E-2a. Quantify the fluxes of CO2 and CH4 globally at spatial scales of 100 to 500 km and monthly temporal resolution with uncertainty < 25% between land ecosystems and atmosphere and between ocean ecosystems and atmosphere. | Most Important |
| E-2b. Quantify the fluxes from land ecosystems between aquatic ecosystems. | Important | |
| E-2c. Assess ecosystem subsidies from solid Earth. | Important |
Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: 2017 Earth Science and Applications from Space Decadal Survey Table 3.2." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Airborne Platforms to Advance NASA Earth System Science Priorities: Assessing the Future Need for a Large Aircraft. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26079.
×
| Societal or Science Question/Goal | Earth Science/Applications Objective | Science/Applications Importance |
|---|---|---|
| QUESTION E-3. What are the fluxes (of carbon, water, nutrients, and energy) within ecosystems, and how and why are they changing? | E-3a. Quantify the flows of energy, carbon, water, nutrients, and so on, sustaining the life cycle of terrestrial and marine ecosystems and partitioning into functional types. | Most Important |
| E-3b. Understand how ecosystems support higher trophic levels of food webs. | Important | |
| QUESTION E-4. How is carbon accounted for through carbon storage, turnover, and accumulated biomass. Have all of the major carbon sinks been qualified and how they are changing in time? | E-4a. Improve assessments of the global inventory of terrestrial carbon pools and their rate of turnover. | Important |
| E-4b. Constrain ocean carbon storage and turnover. | Important | |
| QUESTION E-5. Are carbon sinks stable, are they changing, and why? | E-5a. Discover ecosystem thresholds in altering carbon storage. | Important |
| E-5b. Discover cascading perturbations in ecosystems related to carbon storage. | Important | |
| E-5c. Understand ecosystem response to fire events. | Important |
CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE: SEASONAL TO CENTENNIAL PANEL
| Societal or Science Question/Goal | Earth Science/Applications Objective | Science/Applications Importance |
|---|---|---|
| QUESTION C-1. How much will sea level rise, globally and regionally, over the next decade and beyond, and what will be the role of ice sheets and ocean heat storage? | C-1a. Determine the global mean sea-level rise to within 0.5 mm/yr over the course of a decade.b | Most Important |
| C-1b. Determine the change in the global oceanic heat uptake to within 0.1 W/m2 over the course of a decade. | Most Important | |
| C-1c. Determine the changes in total ice-sheet mass balance to within 15 Gton/yr over the course of a decade and the changes in surface mass balance and glacier ice discharge with the same accuracy over the entire ice sheets, continuously, for decades to come. | Most Important | |
| C-1d. Determine regional sea-level change to within 1.5-2.5 mm/yr over the course of a decade (1.5 corresponds to a ~6000 km2 region, 2.5 corresponds to a ~4,000 km2 region). | Very Important |
Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: 2017 Earth Science and Applications from Space Decadal Survey Table 3.2." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Airborne Platforms to Advance NASA Earth System Science Priorities: Assessing the Future Need for a Large Aircraft. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26079.
×
| Societal or Science Question/Goal | Earth Science/Applications Objective | Science/Applications Importance |
|---|---|---|
| QUESTION C-2. How can we reduce the uncertainty in the amount of future warming of Earth as a function of fossil fuel emissions, improve our ability to predict local and regional climate response to natural and anthropogenic forcings, and reduce the uncertainty in global climate sensitivity that drives uncertainty in future economic impacts and mitigation/adaptation strategies? | C-2a. Reduce uncertainty in low and high cloud feedback by a factor of 2. | Most Important |
| C-2b. Reduce uncertainty in water vapor feedback by a factor of 2. | Very Important | |
| C-2c. Reduce uncertainty in temperature lapse rate feedback by a factor of 2. | Very Important | |
| C-2d. Reduce uncertainty in carbon cycle feedback by a factor of 2. | Most Important | |
| C-2e. Reduce uncertainty in snow/ice albedo feedback by a factor of 2. | Important | |
| C-2f. Determine the decadal average in global heat storage to 0.1 W/m2 (67% confidence) and interannual variability to 0.2 W/m2 (67% confidence). | Very Important | |
| C-2g. Quantify the contribution of the upper troposphere and stratosphere (UTS) to climate feedbacks and change by determining how changes in UTS composition and temperature affect radiative forcing with a 1-sigma uncertainty of 0.05 W/m2 over the course of the decade. | Very Important | |
| C-2h. Reduce the IPCC AR5 total aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty by a factor of 2. | Most Important | |
| QUESTION C-3. How large are the variations in the global carbon cycle and what are the associated climate and ecosystem impacts in the context of past and projected anthropogenic carbon emissions? | C-3a. Quantify CO2 fluxes at spatial scales of 100-500 km and monthly temporal resolution with uncertainty < 25% to enable regional-scale process attribution explaining year-to-year variability by net uptake of carbon by terrestrial ecosystems (i.e., determine how much carbon uptake results from processes such as CO2 and nitrogen fertilization, forest regrowth, and changing ecosystem demography). | Very Important |
| C-3b. Reliably detect and quantify emissions from large sources of CO2 and CH4, including from urban areas, from known point sources such as power plants, and from previously unknown or transient sources such as CH4 leaks from oil and gas operations. | Important | |
| C-3c. Provide early warning of carbon loss from large and vulnerable reservoirs such as tropical forests and permafrost. | Important | |
| C-3d. Provide regional-scale process attribution for carbon uptake by ocean to within 25% (especially in coastal regions and the Southern Ocean). | Important | |
| C-3e. Quantify CH4 fluxes from wetlands at spatial scales of 300 km × 300 km and monthly temporal resolution with uncertainty better than 3 mg CH4 m–2/day–1 in order to establish predictive process–based understanding of dependence on environmental drivers such as temperature, carbon availability, and inundation. | Important |
Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: 2017 Earth Science and Applications from Space Decadal Survey Table 3.2." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Airborne Platforms to Advance NASA Earth System Science Priorities: Assessing the Future Need for a Large Aircraft. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26079.
×
| Societal or Science Question/Goal | Earth Science/Applications Objective | Science/Applications Importance |
|---|---|---|
| C-3f. Improve simulated atmospheric transport for data assimilation/inverse modeling. | Important | |
| C-3g. Quantify the tropospheric oxidizing capacity of OH, critical for air quality and dominant sink for CH4 and other greenhouse gases (GHGs). | Important | |
| QUESTION C-4. How will the Earth system respond to changes in air-sea interactions? | C-4a. Improve the estimates of global air-sea fluxes of heat, momentum, water vapor (i.e., moisture) and other gases (e.g., CO2 and CH4) to the following global accuracy in the mean on local or regional scales: (1) radiative fluxes to 5 W/m2, (2) sensible and latent heat fluxes to 5 W/m2, (3) winds to 0.1 m/s, and (4) CO2 and CH4 to within 25%, with appropriate decadal stabilities. | Very Important |
| C-4b. Better quantify the role of surface waves in determining wind stress; demonstrate the validity of Monin-Obukhov similarity theory and other flux- profile relationships at high wind speeds over the ocean. | Important | |
| C-4c. Improve bulk flux parameterizations, particularly in extreme conditions and high-latitude regions, reducing uncertainty in the bulk transfer coefficients by a factor of 2. | Important | |
| C-4d. Evaluate the effect of surface CO2 gas exchange, oceanic storage, and impact on ecosystems, and improve the confidence in the estimates and reduce uncertainties by a factor of 2. | Important | |
| QUESTION C-5. A. How do changes in aerosols (including their interactions with clouds, which constitute the largest uncertainty in total climate forcing) affect Earth’s radiation budget and offset the warming due to greenhouse gases? B. How can we better quantify the magnitude and variability of the emissions of natural aerosols, and the anthropogenic aerosol signal that modifies the natural one, so that we can better understand the response of climate to its various forcings? |
C-5a. Improve estimates of the emissions of natural and anthropogenic aerosols and their precursors via observational constraints. | Very Important |
| C-5b. Characterize the properties and distribution in the atmosphere of natural and anthropogenic aerosols, including properties that affect their ability to interact with and modify clouds and radiation. | Important | |
| C-5c. Quantify the effect that aerosol has on cloud formation, cloud height, and cloud properties (reflectivity, lifetime, cloud phase), including semi-direct effects. | Very Important | |
| C-5d. Quantify the effect of aerosol-induced cloud changes on radiative fluxes (reduction in uncertainty by a factor of 2) and impact on climate (circulation, precipitation). | Important |
Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: 2017 Earth Science and Applications from Space Decadal Survey Table 3.2." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Airborne Platforms to Advance NASA Earth System Science Priorities: Assessing the Future Need for a Large Aircraft. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26079.
×
| Societal or Science Question/Goal | Earth Science/Applications Objective | Science/Applications Importance |
|---|---|---|
| QUESTION C-6. Can we significantly improve seasonal to decadal forecasts of societally relevant climate variables?* | C-6a. Decrease uncertainty, by a factor of 2, in quantification of surface and subsurface ocean states for initialization of seasonal-to-decadal forecasts. | Very Important |
| C-6b. Decrease uncertainty, by a factor of 2, in quantification of land surface states for initialization of seasonal forecasts. | Important | |
| C-6c. Decrease uncertainty, by a factor of 2, in quantification of stratospheric states for initialization of seasonal-to-decadal forecasts. | Important | |
| QUESTION C-7. How are decadal-scale global atmospheric and ocean circulation patterns changing, and what are the effects of these changes on seasonal climate processes, extreme events, and longer term environmental change? | C-7a. Quantify the changes in the atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns, reducing the uncertainty by a factor of 2, with desired confidence levels of 67% (likely in IPCC parlance). | Very Important |
| C-7b. Quantify the linkage between natural (e.g., volcanic) and anthropogenic (greenhouse gases, aerosols, land-use) forcings and oscillations in the climate system (e.g., MJO, NAO, ENSO, QBO) . Reduce the uncertainty by a factor of 2. Confidence levels desired: 67%. | Important | |
| C-7c. Quantify the linkage between global climate sensitivity and circulation change on regional scales, including the occurrence of extremes and abrupt changes. Quantify the expansion of the Hadley cell to within 0.5 degrees latitude per decade (67% confidence desired); changes in the strength of AMOC to within 5% per decade (67% confidence desired); changes in ENSO spatial patterns, amplitude, and phase (67% confidence desired). | Very Important | |
| C-7d. Quantify the linkage between the dynamical and thermodynamic state of the ocean upon atmospheric weather patterns on decadal timescales. Reduce the uncertainty by a factor of 2 (relative to decadal prediction uncertainty in IPCC, 2013). Confidence level: 67% (likely). | Important | |
| C-7e. Provide observational verification of models used for climate projections. Are the models simulating the observed evolution of the large-scale patterns in the atmosphere and ocean circulation, such as the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events, strength of AMOC, and the poleward expansion of the subtropical jet (to a 67% level correspondence with the observational data)? | Important |
Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: 2017 Earth Science and Applications from Space Decadal Survey Table 3.2." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Airborne Platforms to Advance NASA Earth System Science Priorities: Assessing the Future Need for a Large Aircraft. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26079.
×
| Societal or Science Question/Goal | Earth Science/Applications Objective | Science/Applications Importance |
|---|---|---|
| QUESTION C-8. What will be the consequences of amplified climate change already observed in the Arctic and projected for Antarctica on global trends of sea-level rise, atmospheric circulation, extreme weather events, global ocean circulation, and carbon fluxes? |
C-8a. Improve our understanding of the drivers behind polar amplification by quantifying the relative impact of snow/ice-albedo feedback, versus changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation, water vapor, and lapse rate feedback. | Very Important |
| C-8b. Improve understanding of high-latitude variability and midlatitude weather linkages (impact on midlatitude extreme weather and changes in stormtracks from increased polar temperatures, loss of ice and snow cover extent, and changes in sea level from increased melting of ice sheets and glaciers). | Very Important | |
| C-8c. Improve regional-scale seasonal to decadal predictability of Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice cover, including sea-ice fraction (within 5%), ice thickness (within 20 cm), location of the ice edge (within 1 km), timing of ice retreat, and ice advance (within 5 days). | Very Important | |
| C-8d. Determine the changes in Southern Ocean carbon uptake due to climate change and associated atmosphere/ocean circulations. | Very Important | |
| C-8e. Determine how changes in atmospheric circulation, turbulent heat fluxes, sea-ice cover, freshwater input, and ocean general circulation affect bottom water formation. | Important | |
| C-8f. Determine how permafrost-thaw-driven land-cover changes affect turbulent heat fluxes, above- and below-ground carbon pools, resulting GHG fluxes (CO2, CH4) in the Arctic, as well as their impact on Arctic amplification. | Important | |
| C-8g. Determine the amount of pollutants (e.g., black carbon, soot from fires, and other aerosols and dust) transported into polar regions and their impacts on snow and ice melt. | Important | |
| C-8h. Quantify high-latitude low cloud representation, feedbacks, and linkages to global radiation. | Important | |
| C-8i. Quantify how increased fetch, sea-level rise, and permafrost thaw increase vulnerability of coastal communities to increased coastal inundation and erosion as winds and storms intensify. | Important | |
| QUESTION C-9. How is the ozone layer changing and what are the implications for Earth’s climate? | C-9a. Quantify the amount of UV-B reaching the surface, and relate to changes in stratospheric ozone and atmospheric aerosols. | Important |
Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: 2017 Earth Science and Applications from Space Decadal Survey Table 3.2." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Airborne Platforms to Advance NASA Earth System Science Priorities: Assessing the Future Need for a Large Aircraft. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26079.
×
EARTH SURFACE AND INTERIOR: DYNAMICS AND HAZARDS PANEL
| Societal or Science Question/Goal | Earth Science/Applications Objective | Science/Applications Importance |
|---|---|---|
| QUESTION S-1. How can large-scale geological hazards be accurately forecast in a socially relevant time frame? | S-1a. Measure the pre-, syn-, and post-eruption surface deformation and products of Earth’s entire active land volcano inventory with a time scale of days to weeks. | Most Important |
| S-1b. Measure and forecast interseismic, preseismic, coseismic, and postseismic activity over tectonically active areas on timescales ranging from hours to decades. | Most Important | |
| S-1c. Forecast and monitor landslides, especially those near population centers. | Very Important | |
| S-1d. Forecast, model, and measure tsunami generation, propagation, and run-up for major seafloor events. | Important | |
| QUESTION S-2. How do geological disasters directly impact the Earth system and society following an event? | S-2a. Rapidly capture the transient processes following disasters for improved predictive modeling, as well as response and mitigation through optimal retasking and analysis of space data. | Most Important |
| S-2b. Assess surface deformation (<10 mm), extent of surface change (<100 m spatial resolution) and atmospheric contamination, and the composition and temperature of volcanic products following a volcanic eruption (hourly to daily temporal sampling). | Very Important | |
| S-2c. Assess co- and postseismic ground deformation (spatial resolution of 100 m and an accuracy of 10 mm) and damage to infrastructure following an earthquake. | Very Important | |
| QUESTION S-3. How will local sea level change along coastlines around the world in the next decade to century? | S-3a. Quantify the rates of sea-level change and its driving processes at global, regional, and local scales, with uncertainty <0.1 mm/yr for global mean sea-level equivalent and <0.5 mm/yr sea-level equivalent at resolution of 10 km.b | Most Important |
| S-3b. Determine vertical motion of land along coastlines, at uncertainty < 1 mm/yr . | Most Important | |
| QUESTION S-4. What processes and interactions determine the rates of landscape change? | S-4a. Quantify global, decadal landscape change produced by abrupt events and by continuous reshaping of Earth’s surface from surface processes, tectonics, and societal activity. | Most Important |
| S4b. Quantify weather events, surface hydrology, and changes in ice/water content of near-surface materials that produce landscape change. | Important | |
| S4c. Quantify ecosystem response to and causes of landscape change. | Important |
Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: 2017 Earth Science and Applications from Space Decadal Survey Table 3.2." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Airborne Platforms to Advance NASA Earth System Science Priorities: Assessing the Future Need for a Large Aircraft. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26079.
×
| Societal or Science Question/Goal | Earth Science/Applications Objective | Science/Applications Importance |
|---|---|---|
| QUESTION S-5. How does energy flow from the core to Earth’s surface? | S-5a. Determine the effects of convection within Earth’s interior, specifically the dynamics of Earth’s core and its changing magnetic field and the interaction between mantle convection and plate motions. | Very Important |
| S-5b. Determine the water content in the upper mantle by resolving electrical conductivity to within a factor of 2 over horizontal scales of 1,000 km. | Important | |
| S-5c. Quantify the heat flow through the mantle and lithosphere within 10 mW/m2. | Important | |
| QUESTION S-6. How much water is traveling deep underground and how does it affect geological processes and water supplies? | S-6a. Determine the fluid pressures, storage, and flow in confined aquifers at spatial resolution of 100 m and pressure of 1 kPa (0.1 m head). | Very Important |
| S-6b. Measure all significant fluxes in and out of the groundwater system across the recharge area. | Important | |
| S-6c. Determine the transport and storage properties in situ within a factor of 3 for shallow aquifers and an order of magnitude for deeper systems. | Important | |
| S-6d. Determine the impact of water-related human activities and natural water flow on earthquakes. | Important | |
| QUESTION S-7. How do we improve discovery and management of energy, mineral, and soil resources? | S-7a. Map topography, surface mineralogic composition and distribution, thermal properties, soil properties/water content, and solar irradiance for improved development and management of energy, mineral, agricultural, and natural resources. | Important |
* As noted in the text, all of the indicated measurements for Questions C-6 and C-7 would be useful, but the absence or excessive coarseness of any of the measurements would not be a deal-breaker. This question is best considered not as a motivation for a mission but rather as a beneficiary of measurements taken to address other questions. Indicating here which measurements are already being taken is, in a way, extraneous.
a“Structure” is the spatial distribution of plants and their components on land, and of aquatic biomass. “Function” is the physiology and underpinning of biophysical and biogeochemical properties of terrestrial vegetation and shallow aquatic vegetation.
b The steering committee worked with the Climate Variability and Change Panel and with the Earth Surface and Interior Panel regarding their different requirements for the measurement of sea-level rise. Current altimetry missions, such as Jason-3, have a mission goal of 1 mm/yr, in order to accommodate the inherent measurement uncertainty and the effects of seasonal and interannual variations. The uncertainty in the global mean sea-level rise rate over the past 25 years has been estimated to be 0.3-0.5 mm/yr (e.g., Leuliette and Nerem, 2016; Ablain et al., 2017), and acceleration rates of 0.084 ± 0.025 mm/yr2 have been inferred (Nerem et al., 2018). The 0.5 mm/yr sea-level rise objective reflects requirements specified by the climate panel for multidecadal sea-level rise evaluations that are derived primarily from altimetry. The Earth Surface and Interior Earth Panel has advocated a more stringent requirement of 0.1-0.3 mm/yr, which would require a multi-instrument evaluation, merging measurements from in situ observations, and multiple types of satellites.
Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: 2017 Earth Science and Applications from Space Decadal Survey Table 3.2." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Airborne Platforms to Advance NASA Earth System Science Priorities: Assessing the Future Need for a Large Aircraft. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26079.
×
REFERENCES
Ablain, M., J.F. Legeais, P. Prandi, M. Marcos, L. Fenoglio-Marc, H.B. Dieng, J. Benveniste, and A. Cazenave. 2017. Satellite altimetry-based sea level at global and regional scales. Surveys in Geophysics 38(1): 7-31. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-016-9389-8.
Leuliette, E.W., and R.S. Nerem. 2016. Contributions of Greenland and Antarctica to global and regional sea level change. Oceanography 29(4):154-159. https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2016.107.
Nerem, R.S., B.D. Beckley, J.T. Fasullo, B.D. Hamlington, D. Masters, and G.T. Mitchum. 2018. Climate-change–driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 115(9):2022-2025. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1717312115.
Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: 2017 Earth Science and Applications from Space Decadal Survey Table 3.2." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Airborne Platforms to Advance NASA Earth System Science Priorities: Assessing the Future Need for a Large Aircraft. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26079.
×
This page intentionally left blank.
Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: 2017 Earth Science and Applications from Space Decadal Survey Table 3.2." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Airborne Platforms to Advance NASA Earth System Science Priorities: Assessing the Future Need for a Large Aircraft. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26079.
×
Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: 2017 Earth Science and Applications from Space Decadal Survey Table 3.2." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Airborne Platforms to Advance NASA Earth System Science Priorities: Assessing the Future Need for a Large Aircraft. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26079.
×
Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: 2017 Earth Science and Applications from Space Decadal Survey Table 3.2." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Airborne Platforms to Advance NASA Earth System Science Priorities: Assessing the Future Need for a Large Aircraft. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26079.
×
Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: 2017 Earth Science and Applications from Space Decadal Survey Table 3.2." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Airborne Platforms to Advance NASA Earth System Science Priorities: Assessing the Future Need for a Large Aircraft. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26079.
×
Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: 2017 Earth Science and Applications from Space Decadal Survey Table 3.2." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Airborne Platforms to Advance NASA Earth System Science Priorities: Assessing the Future Need for a Large Aircraft. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26079.
×
Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: 2017 Earth Science and Applications from Space Decadal Survey Table 3.2." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Airborne Platforms to Advance NASA Earth System Science Priorities: Assessing the Future Need for a Large Aircraft. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26079.
×
Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: 2017 Earth Science and Applications from Space Decadal Survey Table 3.2." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Airborne Platforms to Advance NASA Earth System Science Priorities: Assessing the Future Need for a Large Aircraft. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26079.
×
Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: 2017 Earth Science and Applications from Space Decadal Survey Table 3.2." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Airborne Platforms to Advance NASA Earth System Science Priorities: Assessing the Future Need for a Large Aircraft. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26079.
×
Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: 2017 Earth Science and Applications from Space Decadal Survey Table 3.2." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Airborne Platforms to Advance NASA Earth System Science Priorities: Assessing the Future Need for a Large Aircraft. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26079.
×
Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: 2017 Earth Science and Applications from Space Decadal Survey Table 3.2." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Airborne Platforms to Advance NASA Earth System Science Priorities: Assessing the Future Need for a Large Aircraft. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26079.
×
Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: 2017 Earth Science and Applications from Space Decadal Survey Table 3.2." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Airborne Platforms to Advance NASA Earth System Science Priorities: Assessing the Future Need for a Large Aircraft. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26079.
×
Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: 2017 Earth Science and Applications from Space Decadal Survey Table 3.2." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Airborne Platforms to Advance NASA Earth System Science Priorities: Assessing the Future Need for a Large Aircraft. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26079.
×
Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: 2017 Earth Science and Applications from Space Decadal Survey Table 3.2." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Airborne Platforms to Advance NASA Earth System Science Priorities: Assessing the Future Need for a Large Aircraft. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26079.
×
Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: 2017 Earth Science and Applications from Space Decadal Survey Table 3.2." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Airborne Platforms to Advance NASA Earth System Science Priorities: Assessing the Future Need for a Large Aircraft. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26079.
×
