Guidelines for Quantifying Benefits of Traffic Incident Management Strategies (2022)

Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

25   TIM Analysis Step 1— Specify Analysis Purpose The first stage of benefits analysis is to specify the purpose(s) of the benefits analysis. The purpose of the analysis will drive a number of factors specific to execution, such as the scope of data that may be reviewed, the types of tools to consider, and the time and resources to allocate to the analysis. Unique to TIM is the relationship between responding agencies. Only in TIM are public safety, transportation, EMS, and towing organizations so closely aligned. These relationships are beneficial at all phases of the benefits estimation process, beginning with planning the analysis. Clearly articulating the purpose of the analysis will mean a greater likelihood that analysis products meet TIM program needs. When articulating the purpose of the analysis, the focus is on five key questions: 1. What problem is to be addressed? 2. What are the goals for the analysis and outcomes? 3. What is the scope of this analysis? 4. How will the results of the benefits analysis be used? 5. What resources are available to support the analysis? Define the Problem Know why a benefits analysis is being conducted. The analysis should have a clear relation­ ship with the TIM program, and not simply be a report to file away. The results of the analysis should inform decisions made within the TIM program or external decisions that affect the TIM program. Focus on the motivation for initiating the benefits analysis. Has the analysis been spurred by a recent adverse or positive event such as a major incident? Is the analysis in response to a potential loss of funding or justification to maintain a critical program or project? Will this analysis inform whether a recent TIM project deployment is performing as expected, or whether the TIM program in its entirety is delivering value? Is the benefits analysis being con­ ducted to meet agency or state reporting requirements? Is the benefits analysis being conducted to select one from a number of TIM expansion options, or to foster similar TIM programs in other regions within the state? Clearly identify the TIM program or set of projects for which benefits are to be analyzed. The answers to these questions will inform the goals and desired outcomes of the benefits analysis. The answers to these questions will also inform how the analysis is planned. If the analysis has no direct relationship to the TIM program, the analysis should be reframed to establish this link or not performed. C H A P T E R 3

26 Guidelines for Quantifying Benefits of Traffic Incident Management Strategies Develop Analysis Goals and Specify TIM Outcomes to Capture Outcomes refer to the results of TIM activities and are broadly organized across mobility, safety, environmental, efficiency, and traveler satisfaction. Agencies are encouraged to consider and communicate all outcomes from TIM programs, yet should recognize that some invest­ ments in TIM may not affect operations in a way that can be easily monetized. A number of tools are geared toward capturing mobility and environmental TIM outcomes, and to some extent, safety outcomes—mainly in the form of reduced rates of secondary inci­ dents. Consider the following questions when deciding the focus of outcomes: • What is the key problem that the TIM program is solving? In rural areas, the focus may be on ensuring EMS arrives in the critical hour (safety outcome). In urban areas, the focus may be on reducing the frequency and magnitude of peak period delays (mobility outcome). • Have partner agencies (e.g., police or EMS) shared outcomes of greatest importance? • What outcomes best align with the agency’s objectives and mission? • Are there political sensitivities specific to certain outcomes? Agencies in the process of establishing formalized TIM programs may select broad outcomes as goals, while more mature TIM programs may select more detailed outcomes targeting specific goals to improve an established program. All outcomes can be quantified, and some outcomes can be monetized. Those results are direct inputs to a BCA. Be sure to link the specific TIM activities or the TIM program to the outcomes that are to be captured. One approach to confirm that goals and outcomes are well articulated is to map out the list of TIM activities to intended outcomes and relate them to the TIM program and project goals. The analyst should include everything that comes to mind across stakeholders. Consider the following questions: • What TIM activity is the focus of the defined problem? • What has or will be changed within the TIM program? • What, if any, transportation system changes outside TIM activities may affect outcomes? • Often, multiple TIM activities contribute to a single outcome. Is the preference to focus on a specific activity­outcome pair or the overall/cumulative outcome from multiple TIM activities? If the ultimate product of this activity is a long list of activities and outcomes, there are two possibilities. The first possibility is that this analysis is attempting to accomplish something sub­ stantial and that the entire TIM program should be reviewed. The other possibility is that further refinement of the goals and decisions supported by this analysis is necessary. Once satisfied with the answer to these questions, move on to defining the intended uses of the benefits analysis. Define Geographic and Temporal Focus TIM activities may focus on a single, short corridor or along an expansive network of roads encompassing hundreds of miles. Likewise, the assessment of a TIM activity or program may focus on a single year of costs and benefits, or the lifecycle cost and benefits of the program. Further, the geographic and temporal scope of a set of TIM activities may be consistent, or may overlap with other transportation programs. Understanding the organizational and operational context of the TIM analysis will help to make informed decisions on the geographic and temporal focus for analysis. For example, if the evaluation is to assess the benefit from a public campaign bringing awareness of move over laws, the geographic region of interest may be large and inclusive of arterial and freeway networks to cover where radio, dynamic message signs, and other media were used to publicize this law. Conversely, if the campaign was through schools and community events in a town, the geographic area may be the town boundaries.

TIM Analysis Step 1—Specify Analysis Purpose 27   While the focus of this document is on placing a monetary value on TIM benefits, the TIM organization may benefit from considering how this monetary value will translate in terms of a lifecycle benefit. ITS projects, including TIM, typically involve less upfront cost than major physical infrastructure projects (e.g., highways, bridges) but are subject to more frequent recurring changes and expenditures. ITS programs do not have the typical lifespan of infra­ structure projects, and the rate at which specific technologies and software become obsolete varies. It may be convenient to plan based on the State Transportation Improvement Plan cycles, usually every 3 to 5 years. If the intent is to estimate lifecycle costs, the agency or regional discount rate can be consid­ ered. The purpose of using a discount rate when estimating future costs is that a dollar today has more value than a dollar in the future. Official U.S. DOT guidance suggests a 7% discount rate with a 3% discount rate for sensitivity analysis. The 7% rate is an estimate of the average before­ tax rate of return to private capital in the U.S. economy (Office of Management and Budget, 1992). The 3% rate is based on average, over time, yields on U.S. bonds, adjusted for inflation (Office of Management and Budget, 2013). Guidance for non­infrastructure transportation discount rates is not specified. Selecting an accurate discount rate for a TIM investment should consider the lifespan of the investment (absolute lifespan and/or period until a major upgrade is required) and recurring maintenance costs. The period of data analysis can be over a fiscal or calendar year or a period of time before and after the implementation of a TIM activity. The time horizon selected should be cognizant of seasonal changes in travel patterns and weather, and the time a newly implemented activity may require to overcome the hurdles of implementation, typically 3 to 6 months. For example, an assessment of the benefits of a TIM working group should consider the period of analysis as beginning a few months out from the start of the group compared to the same months from the previous year. A key consideration is whether the analysis will focus on a “before and after” or a “with and without” analysis. Often performance data prior to TIM activity may be unavailable. In such circumstances, a comparison with a comparable region performance may allow an alternate means for the analyst to capture the benefits from TIM activities. In some cases, neither before nor comparable data may be feasible from a data acquisition complexity, time, costs, and cleaning perspective. In this circumstance, the analyst may need to rely on “rule of thumb” estimates (see Appendix A) for improved performance. At this stage, the goal is to define the areas and time of interest. The decisions on what specific other areas to focus for comparison, or what sampling methods to choose subsets of location or time are specified in the next step, Planning the TIM Analysis (Chapter 4). Define Intended Use A poll conducted during a webinar on industry needs for quantifying TIM outcomes (Profes­ sional Capacity Building Program, 2014) revealed the following as top goals (in descending order) for embarking on a benefits analysis: • Inform operations decision­making. • Influence decision­makers within the agency. • Influence decision­makers outside the organization (state legislature). Scoping the Analysis • Decide whether the focus is on lifecycle benefits or annual benefits. • Be sure to consider seasonal factors, changes in the region, as well as the time required for TIM projects to take effect. • Understand which is possible and preferred—an analysis comparing before and after implementation of TIM programs or comparing regions with and without TIM programs.

28 Guidelines for Quantifying Benefits of Traffic Incident Management Strategies • Demonstrate value to the traveling public. • Demonstrate value to support and enlist TIM partners. • Promote the adoption of similar TIM programs within other regions of the state. • Support program requirement to measure and track performance. Establishing the intended use will inform the types of products (report, fact sheet, briefing, printed materials) that may be needed and the level of rigor that should be expected in the analysis. Specifying the intended use of the products will allow the analysis team to under­ stand what is expected and how products will benefit the program. The intended use should also specify whether the benefits analysis will be a one­time activity or establish processes for recurring analysis. This level of definition will guide the next stage, defining resources that are available for the benefits analysis. Define Resource Availability At this stage, the agency should address the types and levels of resources available for the benefits analysis. This includes: • In­house expertise and time. • Outsourcing opportunities with university or consulting agencies. • The time frame by which specific products are needed. • Broad sets of data and tools that are available or can be acquired. For smaller projects, the resource availability may be a few weeks of staff time to complete the benefits analysis and products. For TIM programs with multimillion­dollar operating budgets, the resources, time, and expertise applied to benefits estimation will be far more significant. Most methods to estimate benefit will require data cleaning and will benefit from some basic knowledge of programming. These skills may also prove useful in the efficient application of a TIM benefit estimation method. The level of effort in data cleaning and quality checking typi­ cally increases with data resolution. Though higher­resolution data will provide more precise results, there is a trade­off between the additional effort required to clean and quality­check higher­resolution data and the change in results. Some methods are more easily applied, with less effort, to large numbers of incidents than other methods. The four resource items listed above will guide the analysts in developing the benefits analy­ sis plan. The plan defines in detail parameters of the analysis with regard to geographic scope, detailed data, analysis approach, and schedule. The selection of methodologies for TIM analysis is also a part of the analysis plan. Again, based on the size, complexity, and reason for conducting the benefits analysis, a benefits analysis plan may be a simple one­page document or a significant report and activity. Once the purpose of the TIM analysis is clear it should be shared and discussed with stake­ holders. Stakeholders and other responding agencies have different perspectives and may be able to provide valuable feedback or contribute to the analysis. Having these resources prior to planning the TIM analysis helps ensure these valuable insights may be most appropriately incorporated into the analysis.