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Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Laying the Foundation for New and Advanced Nuclear Reactors in the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26630.
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Summary

Achieving climate goals and enhancing energy security will require a transformation of the energy system and substantial private sector and government investment in a broad portfolio of low-carbon energy technologies over the next several decades.1 This study, funded by a generous donation to the National Academy of Engineering, and additional funding from the Department of Energy (DOE), identifies the unique opportunities and barriers for one such technology—new and advanced nuclear reactors2—to play a role in this transformation and provides recommendations to enable such reactors to contribute meaningfully to a low-carbon future.

For many advanced nuclear reactors, the proposed business opportunities and deployment scenarios are quite different from those of the light water reactors (LWRs) used for electricity production today. Not only do many of these advanced reactors use different technology, but many also offer new deployment scenarios: a variety of sizes and scales to meet various electricity output requirements, non-electric applications of reactor energy output (e.g., process heat), transportable reactors, and factory manufacture of reactor modules, or complete factory manufacture of entire reactors. These innovative ideas are, in part, a response to a rapidly changing electricity ecosystem that is becoming increasingly reliant on variable renewable energy and may need firm power when renewables are unavailable or insufficient to meet grid needs, as well as a recognition of the larger decarbonization challenge for sectors now reliant on fossil fuels.

To realize these scenarios, advanced reactors must succeed in many areas: completing demonstrations of new reactor technologies, verifying new business cases (e.g., non-electric applications), showing improved cost metrics that are competitive with other low-carbon power generation technologies, improving construction and project management compared to current LWR builds, obtaining timely regulatory approval, gaining societal acceptance in host communities, and responding to security and safeguard obligations. Because demonstrations of advanced nuclear designs are not expected until the late 2020s or early 2030s, it may be difficult for new nuclear technologies to contribute significantly until the next few decades. Nonetheless, there is a potential longer-term role for

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1 In order to allow brevity, this summary highlights only some of the recommendations in the report. It sets out the numbering of recommendations as in the body of the report. The full array of recommendations is available in Appendix I.

2 The study charge is about “new and advanced reactors,” a term that includes LWRs that are significantly different from current designs (principally, small modular reactors [SMRs]) and reactors using coolants different from light water (e.g., sodium, molten salts, or helium). The focus of the report is on power reactors, not test or research reactors, or production reactors. “New and advanced reactors” will be abbreviated to “advanced reactors” throughout this report.

Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Laying the Foundation for New and Advanced Nuclear Reactors in the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26630.
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Image
FIGURE S-1 Projected growth in electricity demand during the 2030s, 2040s, 2050s, and beyond presents important long-term opportunities for advanced nuclear technologies.

advanced reactors, and overlooking any of the above areas could compromise commercial viability. The race against climate change is both a marathon and a sprint. As is shown in Figure S-1, economy-wide decarbonization will span several decades; projected growth in electricity demand during the 2030s, 2040s, 2050s, and beyond presents important long-term opportunities for advanced nuclear technologies. This summary reflects some of the principal enabling recommendations from the report. Other recommendations are found in the body of the report.

REACTOR TECHNOLOGIES

Some advanced reactors differ from LWRs used for power production today in terms of size, neutron spectrum, coolant, fuel type, fuel enrichment, and/or outlet temperature. The various advanced reactors under development are at different levels of technological maturity and therefore must confront different technology gaps before wide-scale deployment. More mature concepts—small modular LWRs, small modular sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs), small modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs)—need to address regulatory qualification of unique systems, resolve fuel and supply chain issues, and demonstrate operational performance. SFRs and HTGRs will need to address supply chain and high-assay low-enrichment uranium (HALEU) issues and operational reliability, which have impacted those designs in the past. Less mature concepts—gas-cooled fast reactors (GFRs), fluoride-molten-salt-cooled high-temperature reactors (FHRs), molten-salt-fueled reactors (MSRs), large SFRs—have technology gaps related to viability and performance of key reactor features, including fuel and materials behavior and adequacy of passive safety systems. Increased use of better-performing materials, advanced fuels and high-performance fuel cladding materials, and advanced/additive manufacturing could produce notable improvements in performance and economics. While many of the current concepts plan to move to commercial reactor demonstration with existing materials, optimization of future reactor systems and further improvements in safety, reliability, and economics will require advancements in technology and materials. Focused investment in these issues is necessary to enable these technologies to advance to wider deployment.

Recommendation 2-2: The Department of Energy (DOE) should initiate a research program that sets aggressive goals for improving fuels and materials performance. This could take the form of a strategic partnership for research and development involving DOE’s Office of Nuclear Energy and Office of Science, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the Electric Power Research Institute, the nuclear industry, national laboratories, and universities. The program should incentivize the use of modern materials science, including access to modern test reactors, to decrease the time to deployment of materials with improved performance and to accelerate the qualification (ASME Section III, Division 5 or equivalent) and understanding of life-limiting degradation processes of a limited number of high-performance structural materials—for example, reactor core materials and cladding.

Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Laying the Foundation for New and Advanced Nuclear Reactors in the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26630.
×

THE EVOLVING ELECTRICITY SYSTEM

Increased electrification to enable economy-wide decarbonization presents a significant market opportunity for advanced nuclear generation to serve the grid. While many uncertainties surround the future electricity system, increased electricity demand, greater deployment of distributed resources, increased electrification of end-uses, and the greater application of demand flexibility technologies are expected to increase and change future generation needs. Large growth in renewable generation is expected, but many modeling studies suggest that some firm capacity will be required for lowest-cost and reliable electricity in high-renewable scenarios.3 While advanced nuclear reactors could fill this need at a variety of scales (from a few megawatts to a gigawatt), many other low-carbon technologies will vie for this opportunity as well. Even in a future with significant variable renewables, the generation of electricity will likely remain the most consequential output from advanced reactors.

Nuclear power’s competitiveness to serve projected electricity demand, however, is highly sensitive to cost projections. Recent studies suggest that advanced nuclear will likely be highly competitive if overnight capital costs of $2,000/kWe are achieved, regardless of other conditions. Advanced nuclear could also be competitive for electricity production for overnight capital cost ranges of $4,000–$6,000/kWe if other power system costs are higher than expected (e.g., owing to limited transmission growth or limited materials). Nuclear power could be deployed for reasons other than least cost, such as to maintain optionality, as well as for non-grid nuclear applications even if overnight capital costs are higher than $6,000/kWe. Regulatory reforms, including to wholesale electricity markets, could better capture the value that advanced nuclear reactors could contribute to electricity system reliability and resilience.

CONTROLLING COSTS

The up-front financing costs for developing nuclear reactors are currently higher than those for other energy technologies because of large capital requirements, extended development timelines, and limited financing options. These challenges are being addressed in part by various DOE programs, including the Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program (ARDP), a private–public partnership program to demonstrate new and advanced nuclear technologies, as well as the DOE support centers for nuclear R&D (Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear [GAIN], the National Reactor Innovation Center [NRIC], and Nuclear Science User Facilities [NSUF]). While final costs for planned ARDP plants are still uncertain, the level of government funding and vendor matching contributions for the first-of-a-kind (FOAK) demonstrations implies a cost level of 2–2.5 times the $4,000–$6,000/kWe capital cost threshold. Significant and rapid learning and cost reductions will be necessary when moving from FOAK to nth-of-a-kind (NOAK) to achieve market breakthrough.

In order to ensure the efficient deployment of scarce resources, U.S. federal government programs for advanced nuclear development need better coordination and continuity from early R&D through demonstration and deployment. Programs should include decision points for continuation or termination of funding for specific reactor concepts. A comprehensive set of development phases and milestones, and a clear understanding of commercialization strategy requirements should define all federal funding assistance.

Recommendation 4-2: The nuclear industry and the Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy should fully develop a structured, ongoing program to ensure that the best performing technologies move rapidly to and through demonstration as measured by technical (testing, reliability), financial (cost, schedule), regulatory, and social acceptance milestones. Concepts that do not meet their milestones in the ordinary course should no longer receive support and newer concepts should be allowed to enter the program in their place.

Recommendation 4-3: Congress and the Department of Energy (DOE) should maintain the Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program (ARDP) concept. DOE should develop a coordinated plan among owner/operators, industry vendors, and the DOE laboratories that supports needed development efforts. The ARDP

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3 Firm capacity represents generation that can support system resource adequacy and can be reliably counted on in planning reserves.

Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Laying the Foundation for New and Advanced Nuclear Reactors in the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26630.
×

plan needs to include long-range funding linked to staged milestones; ongoing design, cost, and schedule reviews; and siting and community acceptance reviews. This plan will help DOE downselect among concepts for continued support toward demonstration. A modification in the demonstration schedule that takes a phased (versus concurrent) approach to reactor demonstration may be required. For example, funding would be continued for the first two demonstrations under the ARDP. A second round of demonstrations of designs expected to mature from the current ARDP Risk Reduction for Future Demonstrations award recipients could be funded for demonstration under an “ARDP 2.0” starting thereafter and going into the future.

The commercial deployment of low-carbon energy resources will require substantial investment. To obtain funds at this scale, each project investment must present sufficiently low risk that it can compete with other “ordinary” investments in the public equity and debt markets. Widespread commercial deployment of nuclear reactors will occur only if nuclear power projects can convincingly demonstrate that they can compete in a marketplace with alternatives.

Recommendation 4-4: To enable a cost-competitive market environment for nuclear energy, federal and state governments should provide appropriately tailored financial incentives (extending and perhaps enhancing those provided recently in the Inflation Reduction Act) that industry can use as part of a commercialization plan, consistent with the successful incentives provided to renewables. These tools may vary by state, locality, and market type. Continued evaluation of the recently passed incentives will need assessment to determine their adequacy. The scale of these incentives needs to be sufficient not only to encourage nuclear projects but also the vendors and the supporting supply chains.

NON-ELECTRIC APPLICATIONS

In addition to providing electricity to customers across economic sectors, nuclear power plants can provide heat for industrial processes. Depending on the specific process, electricity and/or heat could be used to power hydrogen production (or associated synfuels), desalination, or district heating. Although the recently passed incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act may or may not be sufficient to encourage nuclear deployment, certain geographic locations, and new demand scenarios (e.g., industrial decarbonization) could create future market opportunities. All of these applications could become important as the chemical, materials, and transportation sectors transition to low-carbon operations, with hydrogen providing perhaps the most credible potential revenue stream owing to its value across all these sectors (particularly as a feedstock for synthetic fuels). Not only might reactors be dedicated to serving non-electric needs, but also owners might opt for hybrid systems (e.g., an industrial park) that can monetize non-electric products when the electricity production from a reactor is not needed to meet grid demand. Engaging in such hybrid operations is not trivial and poses technical and regulatory challenges that must be resolved for each unique deployment paradigm.

Recommendation 5-1: Industrial applications using thermal energy present an important new mission for advanced reactors. Key research and development needs for industrial applications include assessing system integration, operations, safety, community acceptance, market size as a function of varying levels of implicit or explicit carbon price, and regulatory risks, with hydrogen production as a top priority. The Department of Energy, with the support of industry support groups such as the Electric Power Research Institute and the nuclear vendors, should conduct a systematic analysis of system integration, operation, and safety risks to provide investors with realistic models of deployment to inform business cases and work with potential host communities.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND CONSTRUCTION

Nuclear projects in the United States and Europe have not been built on budget or on schedule in recent decades. Much of the cost growth does not necessarily arise from the nuclear island, but from the civil works (e.g., concrete or steel structures and balance of plant). This cost growth is owing to a variety of factors, including

Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Laying the Foundation for New and Advanced Nuclear Reactors in the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26630.
×

that a typical U.S. utility company does not have adequate technical and engineering personnel to plan and manage a nuclear construction project.

Recommendation 6-8: While it is vital to demonstrate that advanced reactors are viable from a technical perspective, it is perhaps even more vital to ensure that the overall plant—including the onsite civil work—can be built within cost and schedule constraints. Because it is likely that the cost for onsite development will still be a significant contributor to capital cost, and the ~$35 million in Department of Energy (DOE) funding for advanced construction technologies R&D is small in comparison to the hundreds of millions spent on nuclear island technology research, more should be done over an extended period to research technologies that may streamline and reduce costs for this work. DOE should expand its current efforts in R&D for nuclear construction and make these advanced technologies broadly available, including to vendors participating in the the Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program Risk Reduction and ARC20 programs.

Some advanced reactor vendors are considering moving from the traditional “project-based” approach to a “product-based” approach in which the reactor is produced in a factory or shipyard, with the goal of enabling improved schedules, reduced construction risk, associated cost savings, and improved quality. But, even if there are savings with the nuclear components, the challenge of timely and cost-effective construction of the overall civil works remains for deployment scenarios involving extensive on-site construction work.

Recommendation 6-2: Nuclear owner/operators pursuing new nuclear construction should consider the creation of a consortium or joint venture to pursue the construction on behalf of the group, thereby enabling the creation and maintenance of the necessary skilled technical engineering personnel to pursue projects successfully. Alternatively, advanced reactor developers operating within the traditional project delivery model should consider implementing a long-term business relationship, preferably an equity partnership such as a joint venture, or a consortium, with a qualified engineering, procurement, and construction firm experienced in the nuclear industry.

With the above recommendation, the required professional expertise in site-specific planning, engineering design, and execution could be resourced, retained, and deployed for multiple installations of advanced reactors. Efforts should also be made to ensure that lessons from past problems are learned and corrected in new construction, such as a requirement for design completion and peer review before construction. It will also be necessary to develop a skilled workforce with attention to the level of quality assurance that is demanded by nuclear construction.

Recommendation 6-1: In anticipation of the necessary expansion in workforce to support more widespread deployment of nuclear technologies, the Department of Energy should form a cross-department (whole of government) partnership to address workforce needs (spanning the workforce from technician through PhD) that is comparable to initiatives like the multi-agency National Network for Manufacturing Innovation. The program would include the Departments of Labor, Education, Commerce, and State, and would team with labor organizations, industry, regulatory agencies, and other support organizations to identify gaps in critical skills and then fund training and development solutions that will close these gaps in time to support more rapid deployment. In carrying out these efforts, it will be important to take full advantage of existing efforts at commercial nuclear facilities and national laboratories that already have well-established training and workforce development infrastructure in place.

REGULATIONS

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) conducts thorough reviews of reactor applications as part of its obligation to ensure adequate protection of public health, safety, and the environment. With advanced reactor designs, the NRC must adjust a variety of regulatory requirements to accommodate the many differences from

Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Laying the Foundation for New and Advanced Nuclear Reactors in the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26630.
×

existing LWRs. NRC resolution of these issues is required for many new deployment scenarios to be realized. Moreover, establishing the safety case for an advanced reactor will require a thorough verification of safety claims based on detailed analyses founded on experimental data. While the NRC must maintain its overriding commitment to safety, the regulatory process should be made as efficient and flexible as possible if advanced reactors are to be commercialized in the coming decades.

Recommendation 7-1: Advanced reactors will not be commercialized if the regulatory requirements are not adjusted to accommodate their many differences from existing light water reactors. A clear definition of the regulatory requirements for a new technology must be established promptly if timely deployment is to be achieved. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) needs to enhance its capability to resolve the many issues with which it is and will be confronted. In recognition of the urgency for the NRC to prepare now, Congress should provide increased resources on the order of tens of millions of dollars per year to the NRC that are not drawn from fees paid by existing licensees and applicants.

Recommendation 7-4: The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission should expedite the requirements and guidance governing siting and emergency planning zones to enable vendors to determine the restrictions that will govern the deployment of their reactors.

SOCIETAL ACCEPTANCE

Societal acceptance is necessary if new reactors are to play an expanded role in a decarbonized energy system. Social acceptance should be considered early in the design and verification process and continue through project. The industry should engage with a community affected by prospective new construction, hear its needs and concerns, and adjust plans as a result. The effort should reflect an overriding commitment to honesty, early engagement through credible information channels, and genuine effort to develop a partnership. Sociological approaches must become part of the nuclear energy research and development cycle, treated with the same seriousness as technology development. New risk communication strategies—grounded in rigorous social science (going beyond polling) and respect for community apprehensions and desires—could greatly improve the prospects for nuclear deployment in the coming decades. Risk communication strategies that rely exclusively or greatly on the alleged need to remedy the public’s lack of knowledge (in other words, the deficit model of science communication) have been tried in the nuclear industry and have failed comprehensively.

Recommendation 8-5: The developers and future owners that represent the advanced nuclear industry should adopt a consent-based approach to siting new facilities. The siting approach will have to be adjusted for a particular place, time, and culture. The nuclear industry should follow the best practices, including (1) a participatory process of site selection; (2) the right for communities to veto or opt out (within agreed-upon limits); (3) some form of compensation granted for affected communities; (4) partial funding for affected communities to conduct independent technical analyses; (5) efforts to develop a partnership to pursue the project between the implementer and local community; and (6) an overriding commitment to honesty. Following these practices will require additional time and financial resources to be allotted to successfully site and construct new nuclear power facilities, and the industry should account for these costs in their plans. The industry should be willing to fully engage with a community, hear its concerns and needs, and be ready to address them, including adjusting plans. While this would raise the likelihood of successful deployment, it is not a guarantee of success. Additionally, the industry, guided by experts in consent-based processes, should capture best siting practices in guidance documents or standards.

SECURITY AND SAFEGUARDS

New deployment scenarios introduce new risks for security (both physical and cyber) and safeguards (to prevent proliferation) that should be addressed early in the reactor design process. To enable the vendors to accommodate

Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Laying the Foundation for New and Advanced Nuclear Reactors in the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26630.
×

these requirements in their designs and in formulating their business plans, early definition of the requirements is essential.

Recommendation 9-1: The modification of the security requirements proposed by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) staff could have significant implications for the design, staffing, and operations of advanced reactors, thereby impacting business plans. Delays in providing clear regulatory guidance may impact capital availability and increases the potential for costly redesign if guidelines do not align with expected modifications to existing protocols. Congress should provide additional funding for NRC evaluation of security guidelines and the NRC should expedite its consideration of the staff proposal and seek to complete the rule making promptly if significant changes are deemed appropriate. In that case, the prompt completion of the associated guidance should also be a high priority.

Sustained, long-term commitments with international partners for development beyond the United States will be important in the planning process. The U.S. government, through DOE’s Office of Nuclear Energy, has a range of programs such as ANSWER, GAIN, and NRIC to assist vendors in navigating the challenges to incorporating safety, safeguards, and security into planning and design processes.

Recommendation 9-5: The United States should develop a plan for increased and sustained long-term financial and technical support for capacity building in partner countries, including cost requirements for using U.S. national laboratories and universities as training platforms. This plan should include partnering with U.S. reactor vendors to develop a safety, safeguards, and security “package,” where the United States and the vendor could offer customized support to a host country for developing and implementing new safety, safeguards, and security arrangements.

INTERNATIONAL DEPLOYMENT

Many vendors contemplate an international market for their designs. To foster a healthy international market, the U.S. government will need to better equip itself to swiftly negotiate and implement more arrangements for nuclear cooperation with existing and emerging nuclear countries. Although it is not anticipated that significant modifications of export regulations are required to accommodate advanced reactor designs, efforts to increase international harmonization could greatly improve options for export financing. For U.S. vendors to better compete with state-owned or state-financed vendors in the dynamic international energy market, a technically and economically viable product must be established that could then be supported by a robust and reliable source of export credit financing. Most U.S. advanced reactor vendors will not be ready for international commercial deployment until successful demonstrations are completed in the United States and thus will be unlikely to tap export-import bank (EXIM) financing before a new authorization cycle is necessary.

Recommendation 10-2: International nuclear projects by U.S. exporters are likely to require a financing package that reflects a blending of federal grants, loans, and loan guarantees along with various forms of private equity and debt financing. The Executive Branch should work with the private sector to build an effective and competitive financing package for U.S. exporters.

CONCLUSION

In order for advanced reactors to contribute significantly to a decarbonized energy system, there are many challenges that must be overcome. Their resolution requires sustained effort and robust financial support by the Congress, various departments of the U.S. government (especially DOE and the NRC), the nuclear industry, and the financial community. Given the urgency of the need to respond to climate change, it is important to seek the prompt resolution of issues associated with commercialization of low-carbon technologies.

Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Laying the Foundation for New and Advanced Nuclear Reactors in the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26630.
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Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Laying the Foundation for New and Advanced Nuclear Reactors in the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26630.
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Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Laying the Foundation for New and Advanced Nuclear Reactors in the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26630.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Laying the Foundation for New and Advanced Nuclear Reactors in the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26630.
×
Page 3
Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Laying the Foundation for New and Advanced Nuclear Reactors in the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26630.
×
Page 4
Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Laying the Foundation for New and Advanced Nuclear Reactors in the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26630.
×
Page 5
Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Laying the Foundation for New and Advanced Nuclear Reactors in the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26630.
×
Page 6
Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Laying the Foundation for New and Advanced Nuclear Reactors in the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26630.
×
Page 7
Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Laying the Foundation for New and Advanced Nuclear Reactors in the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26630.
×
Page 8
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The world confronts an existential challenge in responding to climate change, resulting in an urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from all sectors of the economy. What will it take for new and advanced nuclear reactors to play a role in decarbonization? Nuclear power provides a significant portion of the worlds low-carbon electricity, and advanced nuclear technologies have the potential to be smaller, safer, less expensive to build, and better integrated with the modern grid. However, if the United States wants advanced nuclear reactors to play a role in its plans for decarbonization, there are many key challenges that must be overcome at the technical, economic, and regulatory levels.

Laying the Foundation for New and Advanced Nuclear Reactors in the United States discusses how the United States could support the successful commercialization of advanced nuclear reactors with a set of near-term policies and practices. The recommendations of this report address the need to close technology research gaps, explore new business use cases, improve project management and construction, update regulations and security requirements, prioritize community engagement, strengthen the skilled workforce, and develop competitive financing options.

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