Consensus Study Report
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This activity was supported by contracts between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-70682-7
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-70682-3
Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/27160
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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Future Directions for Southern Ocean and Antarctic Nearshore and Coastal Research. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/27160.
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COMMITTEE ON FUTURE DIRECTIONS FOR SOUTHERN OCEAN AND ANTARCTIC NEARSHORE AND COASTAL RESEARCH
PAULA BONTEMPI (Co-chair), University of Rhode Island
ALAN MIX (Co-chair), Oregon State University
KIM S. BERNARD, Oregon State University
EDWARD A. BOYLE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
DANIEL P. COSTA, University of California, Santa Cruz
JAMIN S. GREENBAUM, Scripps Institution of Oceanography
YING-TSONG LIN, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
HEATHER JOAN LYNCH, Stony Brook University
W. BERRY LYONS, The Ohio State University
EDWARD (TED) MAKSYM, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
JILL MIKUCKI, University of Tennessee, Knoxville
WEISEN SHEN, Stony Brook University
ANDREW F. THOMPSON, California Institute of Technology
Staff
MARGO REGIER, Study Director
CAROLINE BELL, Program Officer
MORGAN DISBROW-MONZ, Program Officer
MILES LANSING, Senior Program Assistant
BOARD ON EARTH SCIENCES AND RESOURCES
ISABEL P. MONTAÑEZ (Chair), University of California, Davis
THORSTEN W. BECKER, The University of Texas at Austin
BRENDA B. BOWEN, The University of Utah
MICHELE L. COOKE, University of Massachusetts Amherst
NELIA W. DUNBAR, New Mexico Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources
MARY H. FEELEY (Retired), ExxonMobil
KRISTEN KURLAND, Carnegie Mellon University
MICHAEL MANGA, University of California, Berkeley
W. ALLEN MARR, Jr., Geocomp Corporation
PATRICIA F. McDOWELL, University of Oregon
HARVEY J. MILLER, The Ohio State University
ANN S. OJEDA, Auburn University
JEFFREY N. RUBIN, Yale University
DAVID B. SPEARS, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
ELIZABETH J. WILSON, Dartmouth College
Staff
DEBORAH GLICKSON, Director
SAMMANTHA L. MAGSINO, Senior Program Officer
MARGO REGIER, Program Officer
JONATHAN TUCKER, Program Officer
CHARLES BURGIS, Associate Program Officer
NOEL WALTERS, Associate Program Officer
DANIELLE WOODRING, Associate Program Officer
MARGO CORUM, Visiting Scientist
CYNTHIA GETNER, Senior Financial Business Partner
EMILY BERMUDEZ, Senior Program Assistant
MILES LANSING, Senior Program Assistant
JUSTIN CHATMAN, Program Assistant
MAYA FREY, Program Assistant
OCEAN STUDIES BOARD
CLAUDIA BENITEZ-NELSON (Chair), University of South Carolina, Columbia
MARK R. ABBOTT, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
ROSANNA ‘ANOLANI ALEGADO, University of Hawai’i, Manoa
CAROL ARNOSTI, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
AMY S. BOWER, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
LISA M. CAMPBELL, Duke University
THOMAS S. CHANCE, ASV Global
DANIEL COSTA, University of California, Santa Cruz
JOHN R. DELANEY, University of Washington
TIMOTHY C. GALLAUDET, Ocean STL Consulting
SCOTT GLENN, Rutgers University
MARCIA ISAKSON, University of Texas at Austin
LEKELIA JENKINS, Arizona State University, Tempe
NANCY KNOWLTON (NAS), National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution
ANTHONY MACDONALD, Monmouth University
GALEN McKINLEY, Columbia University
S. BRADLEY MORAN (Ex-officio Member), University of Alaska Fairbanks
RUTH L. PERRY, Shell Exploration and Production Company
DEAN H. ROEMMICH, Scripps Institution of Oceanography
JAMES SANCHIRICO, University of California, Davis
MARK J. SPALDING, The Ocean Foundation
PAUL S. WILLIAMS, Natural Resources Department, Suquamish Tribe
Staff
SUSAN ROBERTS, Director
STACEE KARRAS, Senior Program Officer
KELLY OSKVIG, Senior Program Officer
THANH NGUYEN, Financial Business Partner
CAROLINE BELL, Program Officer
LEIGHANN MARTIN, Associate Program Officer
DARRYL ACKER-CARTER, Research Associate
SAFAH WYNE, Senior Program Assistant
ERIC YANISKO, Program Assistant
ZOE ALEXANDER, Program Assistant
POLAR RESEARCH BOARD
MARTIN O. JEFFRIES (Chair), Polar Scientist, Retired
JENNY L. BAESEMAN, Baeseman Consulting & Services and University of Alaska, Fairbanks
JOHN E. CARLSTROM, University of Chicago and Argonne National Laboratory
GINNY A. CATANIA, University of Texas, Austin
CHI-HING C. CHENG, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
NAGRUK HARCHAREK, Voice of the Arctic Iñupiat
MICHAEL HARTINGER, Space Science Institute and University of California, Los Angeles
ADELHEID HERRMAN, University of Alaska Fairbanks
JOHN P. HOLDREN, Harvard University
LAUREN M, MILLER, The University of Virginia
TWILA A. MOON, National Snow and Ice Data Center and University of Colorado, Boulder
ADRIANNA A. MUIR, The Nature Conservancy
ANUPMA PRAKESH, University of Alaska Fairbanks
JULIE M. RAYMOND-YAKOUBIAN, Kawerak, Inc.
KRISTEN ST. JOHN, James Madison University
LYNNE D. TALLEY, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego
MERRITT TURETSKY, University of Colorado Boulder
ROSS A. VIRGINIA, Dartmouth College
EARLE WILSON, Stanford University
Staff
APRIL MELVIN, Acting Director
MORGAN DISBROW-MONZ, Program Officer
BRIDGET McGOVERN, Program Officer
RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator
Reviewers
This consensus study report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.
We thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report, nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by DAVE KARL, University of Hawai‘i, and JEFFREY SEVERINGHAUS, University of California, San Diego. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.
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Acknowledgments
Many individuals assisted the committee in creating this report. The committee would like to thank the following people who gave presentations and participated in panel discussions.
Contents
2 THE NATIONAL ANTARCTIC PROGRAM
Office of Polar Programs and U.S. Antarctic Program
3 THE IMPACT OF ANTARCTICA AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN ON GLOBAL SEA LEVEL
How Much and How Fast Will Ocean Warming Raise Sea Level?
How Much and How Fast Will Atmospheric Warming Raise Sea Level?
How Will Floating Ice Processes Impact the Rate of Ice Sheet Loss?
Will Grounding Zone Instabilities Create Tipping Points of Irreversible Ice Loss?
Will Geological and Geophysical Properties and Processes Exacerbate or Moderate Sea Level Rise?
4 THE IMPACT OF SOUTHERN OCEAN CIRCULATION AND AIR–SEA EXCHANGE ON GLOBAL HEAT AND CARBON BUDGETS
How Can Understanding Past Changes in the Southern Ocean Heat and CO2 Budgets Elucidate the Future?
What Processes Will Impact Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Thickness on Decadal Timescales?
What Are the Feedbacks between Changing Ecosystems and Biogeochemistry that Drive the Carbon Cycle?
How Have Biota Adapted and Evolved, and What Is Their Resilience to Change?
Conclusions and Recommendations