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TWO FLUIDS Phys ics and Env i ronmen ta l P r e d i c t i o n 1) . I n t r o d u c t i o n As our human s o c i e t y grows i n the scope of i t s a c t i v i t y , as c o m p l e x new i n d u s t r i e s t ake f o r m , as demands fo r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n c r e a s e , as w e t r a n s f o r m the w o r l d f r o m a spa r se ly to a dense ly i n h a b i t e d p l a n e t , w e f i n d tha t our need f o r a deeper under s t and ing o f the w o r l d about us inc reases c o r r e s p o n d i n g l y . I t migh t s u f f i c e the s o l i t a r y p ioneer to know the e c o l o g y of the immedia te sur roundings o f h i s homestead - the lo re o f the nearby fo r e s t s and s t r e ams . But today our l i v e l i h o o d and p r o s p e r i t y are i n e x t r i c a b l y bound w i t h tha t o f peoples on other c o n t i n e n t s . The s ta te o f the r i c e c rop i n I n d o n e s i a , the M o n s o o n r a i n s over the f a r m lands o f I n d i a , years o f bad f i s h i n g o f f Japan, a l l a f f e c t u s . A despera te s t a r v i n g people make ne i the r good c u s - tomers nor good n e i g h b o r s . M a n y o f these f l u c t u a t i o n s i n l i v e l i h o o d and p r o s p e r i t y are l i n k e d t o vaga r i e s o f wea the r and c l i m a t e w h i c h i f a n t i c i p a t e d and p r e d i c t e d c o u l d be a l l o w e d f o r . Thus our need to measure , m o n i t o r , and under s t and the wea the r has g r o w n to t r u l y g l o b a l p r o p o r t i o n s , and I t Is b e - g i n n i n g to d a w n upon us tha t on t h i s g l o b a l s ca l e the a tmosphere and ocean are as c l o s e l y l i n k e d as t w o coa t s o f pa in t on a c roquet b a l l : t hey t o u c h each other near ly e v e r y w h e r e . M e t e o r o l o g i s t s r e c o g n i z e the need t o unders tand the mach ine ry a t w o r k I n t h i s c l o s e bond be tween a i r and o c e a n , and the need to gather data on a g l o b a l s c a l e . To ach i eve t h i s g o a l , m e t e o r o l o g i s t s have o rgan ized I n t e r n a t i o n a l l y th rough the W o r l d M e t e o r o l o g i c a l O r g a n i z a t i o n , a r e sea rch program k n o w n as the G l o b a l Atmospher ic Research Program - 92 -
(GARP) and a g l o b a l o b s e r v a t i o n a l ne twork k n o w n as the W o r l d Wea the r W a t c h ( W W W ) . Both o f these programs r e c o g n i z e the n e c e s s i t y fo r i n f o r - ma t ion f r o m the ocean s u r f a c e . I t appears necessary to p e n - e t ra te the ocean at l e a s t t o the seasona l t h e r m o c l i n e , s i nce knowledge o f heat s torage i n t h i s l aye r w i l l be r equ i r ed to ex tend the t ime range of wea the r f o r e c a s t s . I t Is c l e a r l y t o the advantage o f bo th oceanography and meteoro logy tha t there be c l o s e c o o r d i n a t i o n o f Decade programs w i t h those a l r eady p lanned th rough W M O , and tha t one of the main c o n t r o l l i n g f ea tu re s of p lans f o r the o b s e r v a t i o n a l program i n the Decade shou ld be tha t i t Is made of op t imum u s e f u l n e s s to the needs o f r e sea rch m e t e o r o l o g y . A g o a l o f the Decade shou ld be to improve knowledge and unde r - s t and ing t o the po in t where ocean f o r e c a s t i n g fo r a v a r i e t y o f users can be conduc ted on a r o u t i n e and e f f e c t i v e b a s i s , c a r r i e d out i n c lo se c o l - l a b o r a t i o n w i t h p a r a l l e l i n v e s t i g a t i o n s o f the a tmosphe re . In t h i s chapter we b e g i n by d i s c u s s i n g the need f o r and prospec ts of a g l o b a l n u m e r i c a l mode l f o r f o r e c a s t i n g the j o i n t ocean -a tmosphere ( 1 , 2 ) . W e conc lude tha t du r ing the Decade s i g n i f i c a n t progress t o w a r d t h i s g o a l can be made and suggest tha t p r e l i m i n a r y s tud ies o f more l i m i t e d scope are f i r s t d e s i r a b l e . Examina t ions o f the ve ry concen t r a t ed data now a v a i l a b l e i n the W e s t e r n P a c i f i c shou ld be unde r - t a k e n ( 4 ) . Conce r t ed da ta ga the r ing programs shou ld be i n i t i a t e d i n c e r t a i n l i m i t e d r e g i o n s , namely the E q u a t o r i a l P a c i f i c , the Somal i C u r - r e n t , and a s u b t r o p i c a l u p w e l l i n g a rea . - 93 -
