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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. The Future of Electric Power in the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25968.
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The Future of Electric Power
in the United States

Committee on the Future of Electric Power in the U.S.

Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

A Consensus Study Report of

images

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, DC
www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. The Future of Electric Power in the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25968.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001

This activity was supported by Contract No. DE-EP0000026 of the U.S. Department of Energy. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-68444-6
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-68444-7
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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. The Future of Electric Power in the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/25968.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. The Future of Electric Power in the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25968.
×

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The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president.

The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president.

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Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. The Future of Electric Power in the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25968.
×

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Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task.

Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies.

For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. The Future of Electric Power in the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25968.
×

COMMITTEE ON THE FUTURE OF ELECTRIC POWER IN THE U.S.

GRANGER MORGAN, NAS,1 Carnegie Mellon University, Chair

ANURADHA ANNASWAMY, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

ANJAN BOSE, NAE,2 Washington State University

TERRY BOSTON, NAE, Terry Boston, LLC

JEFFERY DAGLE, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

DEEPAKRAJ DIVAN, NAE, Georgia Institute of Technology

MICHAEL HOWARD, Electric Power Research Institute

CYNTHIA HSU, National Rural Electric Cooperative Association

REIKO A. KERR, Los Angeles Department of Water and Power

KAREN PALMER, Resources for the Future

H. VINCENT POOR, NAE/NAS, Princeton University

WILLIAM H. SANDERS, Carnegie Mellon University

SUSAN TIERNEY, Analysis Group

DAVID VICTOR, University of California, San Diego

ELIZABETH WILSON, Dartmouth College

Staff

K. JOHN HOLMES, Study Co-Director, Board Director/Scholar, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems (beginning January 2020)

BRENT HEARD, Study Co-Director, Program Officer, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems (beginning January 2020)

BEN A. WENDER, Study Director, Senior Program Officer, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems (until December 2019)

ELIZABETH ZEITLER, Associate Director, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

REBECCA DEBOER, Research Assistant, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

MICHAELA KERXHALLI-KLEINFIELD, Research Associate, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

KASIA KORNECKI, Program Officer, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

CATHERINE WISE, Associate Program Officer, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

HEATHER LOZOWSKI, Financial Business Partner, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

NOTE: See Appendix C, Disclosure of Conflict(s) of Interest.

___________________

1 Member, National Academy of Sciences.

2 Member, National Academy of Engineering.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. The Future of Electric Power in the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25968.
×

BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS

JARED COHON, NAE, Carnegie Mellon University, Chair

VICKY BAILEY, Anderson Stratton Enterprises

CARLA BAILO, Center for Automotive Research

DEEPAKRAJ DIVAN, NAE, Georgia Institute of Technology

MARCIUS EXTAVOUR, XPRIZE

T.J. GLAUTHIER, TJ Glauthier Associates, LLC

PAULA GLOVER, Alliance to Save Energy

NAT GOLDHABER, Claremont Creek Ventures

DENISE GRAY, LG Chem Michigan, Inc.

JOHN KASSAKIAN, NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

BARBARA KATES-GARNICK, Tufts University

ARATI PRABHAKAR, NAE, Actuate

JOSÉ SANTIESTEBAN, NAE, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company

ALEXANDER SLOCUM, NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

GORDON VAN WELIE, NAE, ISO New England

DAVID VICTOR, University of California, San Diego

JOHN WALL, NAE, Cummins, Inc. (retired)

ROBERT WEISENMILLER, California Energy Commission (former)

JETTA WONG, JLW Advising

Staff

K. JOHN HOLMES, Director/Scholar

HEATHER LOZOWSKI, Financial Manager

REBECCA DEBOER, Research Assistant

MICHAELA KERXHALLI-KLEINFIELD, Research Associate

BEN A. WENDER, Senior Program Officer (until December 2019)

ELIZABETH ZEITLER, Associate Director

BRENT HEARD, Program Officer

KASIA KORNECKI, Program Officer

CATHERINE WISE, Associate Program Officer

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. The Future of Electric Power in the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25968.
×

Preface

Electricity is essential to modern society. We use it to light our buildings and streets and warm and cool the places where we live and work. Electric power ensures our supplies of food and clean water, powers commerce and industry, enables communication and computing, runs gas, transportation, water, and other networked infrastructures, keeps hospitals open and operating, helps to process our wastes, and many other things.

In light of these critical roles that electricity plays, in its 2018 appropriations for the U.S. Department of Energy, the U.S. Congress directed the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to appoint an ad hoc committee of experts to “conduct an evaluation of the expected medium- and long-term evolution of the grid. This evaluation shall focus on developments that include the emergence of new technologies, planning and operating techniques, grid architecture, and business models.”1

The present report is the most recent in a series of consensus study reports that the National Academies have produced on key issues specifically related to electric power over the course of the past decade. The earlier reports were:

  1. America’s Energy Future, 2009
  2. Electricity from Renewable Resources: Status, Prospects, and Impediments, 2010
  3. Terrorism and the Electric Power Delivery System, 2012
  4. Analytic Research Foundations for the Next-Generation Electric Grid, 2016
  5. The Power of Change: Innovation for Development and Deployment of Increasingly Clean Electric Power Technologies, 2016
  6. Enhancing the Resilience of the Nation’s Electricity System, 2017

While the membership of each of these committees has been different, there has been enough overlap in participants from one to the next to provide continuity, while also adding new participants who have brought valuable new perspectives and insights.

In addition to chairing the present study, I have had the honor of chairing the committees for the 2012 report on terrorism and the 2017 report on enhancing the resilience of the system. In both of these, as in this study, I have

___________________

1 The full statement of task—which, in addition to a very general call to assess how the grid may evolve in the future, also includes a specific request that the committee address issue of technologies, planning and operations, business models, and grid architectures—can be found in Appendix A.

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. The Future of Electric Power in the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25968.
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had an outstanding committee that both worked very well together, while bringing a wealth of informed insight from years of experience with the many institutions, and provided perspectives that are relevant to the operation of this critical infrastructure. Fortunately, the present committee had met a sufficient number of times in face-to-face meetings to have developed good rapport before SARS-CoV-2 forced us to move all our interactions entirely online. And, of course, it was electricity that made those online meetings possible!

No single planner or designer is responsible for the U.S. power system. Indeed, while years ago a few entities were responsible for designing and operating most of the grid, over the course of the past several decades, this has changed. Driven largely by policy choices that have placed much greater emphasis on markets and competition, and the sometimes divergent interests of federal, state, regional, and local authorities, it has become ever more challenging to answer the simple question: “Who is in charge of planning, developing, and ensuring the integrity of the future power system?”

To a large extent, it is an incremental and piecemeal process, driven by multiple independent parties operating differently in the various parts of the country, that is shaping how the grid has been evolving, and how it will evolve in the future. At the same time, it is clear that there are a number of technical developments and legal and regulatory changes that could facilitate a variety of new and beneficial developments, some of which could be quite revolutionary. Rather than trying to peer into a clouded crystal ball and attempt to predict the future of the grid, our committee has instead focused on identifying, describing, and recommending developments that could support beneficial evolution of the nation’s power system across a wide range of futures, while also suggesting a number of needed remedial actions.

The committee’s understanding of key issues facing the grid has been enriched by presentations made at two workshops: “Communications, Cyber Resilience, and the Future of the U.S. Electric Power System” (Appendix E); and “Models to Inform Planning for the Future of Electric Power in the U.S.” (Appendix F). Our work has also been informed by webinars that the committee organized on approaches to modeling power flows, grid architectures, and the different power marketing administrations operating in different regions across the United States.

Last, the committee members and I, together with our excellent supporting staff, want to thank the many outside experts—including experts from the U.S. Department of Energy and several other federal agencies, state regulators and their staffs, original equipment manufacturers and suppliers and their respective associations, and nongovernmental organizations—who contributed significantly of their time and efforts to inform this study, either by giving presentations at meetings or by responding to committee requests for information.

The completion of this study would not have been successful without the assistance of many individuals who engaged in helpful discussions with committee members and provided valuable information during the committee’s data-gathering process. A list of presenters from workshops and webinars can be found in Appendix D. The committee would especially like to thank the following individuals for their consultations and input: Laura Diaz Anadon, Cambridge University; Gilbert Bindewald III, U.S. Department of Energy; Maureen Clapper, U.S. Department of Energy; Gregory Falco, Johns Hopkins University; David Hart, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation; Paul Hines, The University of Vermont; Annabelle Lee, Nevermore Security; Craig Miller, National Rural Electric Cooperative Association; Galen Rasche, Electric Power Research Institute; Kelly Sims Gallagher, Tufts University; Varun Sivaram, Columbia University; Paul Skare, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Saleh Soltan, Amazon; Stephen Walls, U.S. Department of Energy; and Tim Yardley, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign.

It is our committee’s hope that, over the decades to come, this report will help to make America’s critically important electric power system safer and more secure, cleaner and more sustainable, more affordable and equitable, and more reliable and resilient.

M. Granger Morgan, Chair
Committee on the Future of Electric Power in the U.S.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. The Future of Electric Power in the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25968.
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Acknowledgment of Reviewers

This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.

We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:

___________________

1 Member, National Academy of Sciences.

2 Member, National Academy of Engineering.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. The Future of Electric Power in the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25968.
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Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report, nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by William H. Press, NAS, University of Texas, Austin, and Clark W. Gellings, NAE, Clark Gellings and Associates, LLC. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. The Future of Electric Power in the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25968.
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Electric power is essential for the lives and livelihoods of all Americans, and the need for electricity that is safe, clean, affordable, and reliable will only grow in the decades to come. At the request of Congress and the Department of Energy, the National Academies convened a committee of experts to undertake a comprehensive evaluation of the U.S. grid and how it might evolve in response to advances in new energy technologies, changes in demand, and future innovation.

The Future of Electric Power in the United States presents an extensive set of policy and funding recommendations aimed at modernizing the U.S. electric system. The report addresses technology development, operations, grid architectures, and business practices, as well as ways to make the electricity system safe, secure, sustainable, equitable, and resilient.

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