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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26712.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26712.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26712.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26712.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26712.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26712.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26712.
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Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26712.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26712.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26712.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26712.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26712.
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Prepublication Copy—Subject to Further Editorial Correction Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop Committee on Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure Workshop, Phase II Space Studies Board Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine National Academies Press Washington, DC PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This study is based on work supported by Contract NNH17CB02B with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Grant 2126142 with the National Science Foundation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any agency or organization that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: XXX-X-XXX-XXXXX-X International Standard Book Number-10: X-XXX-XXXXX-X Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/26712 Copies of this publication are available free of charge from Space Studies Board National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Keck Center of the National Academies 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This publication is available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2022 by the National Academy of Sciences. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and National Academies Press and the graphical logos for each are all trademarks of the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/26712. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION

Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task. Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies. Rapid Expert Consultations published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine are authored by subject-matter experts on narrowly focused topics that can be supported by a body of evidence. The discussions contained in rapid expert consultations are considered those of the authors and do not contain policy recommendations. Rapid expert consultations are reviewed by the institution before release. For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION

COMMITTEE ON SPACE WEATHER OPERATIONS AND RESEARCH INFRASTRUCTURE WORKSHOP, PHASE II CHRISTINA M.S. COHEN, California Institute of Technology, Co-Chair TUIJA I. PULKKINEN, NAS,1 University of Michigan, Co-Chair DANIEL N. BAKER, NAE,2 University of Colorado Boulder ANTHEA J. COSTER, MIT Haystack Observatory MARY K. HUDSON, Dartmouth College DELORES KNIPP, University of Colorado Boulder KD LEKA, NorthWest Research Associates CHARLES D. NORTON, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory TERRANCE G. ONSAGER, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Space Weather Prediction Center LARRY J. PAXTON, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory PETE RILEY, Predictive Science Inc. RONALD E. TURNER, Analytical Services, Inc. NICHOLEEN M. VIALL-KEPKO, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ENDAWOKE YIZENGAW, The Aerospace Corporation Staff ARTHUR CHARO, Senior Program Officer, Study Director ALEXANDER BELLES, Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Policy Graduate Fellow GAYBRIELLE HOLBERT, Senior Program Assistant, Space Studies Board COLLEEN N. HARTMAN, Director, Space Studies Board 1 Member, National Academy of Sciences. 2 Member, National Academy of Engineering. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION v

SPACE STUDIES BOARD MARGARET G. KIVELSON, NAS,1 University of California, Los Angeles, Chair GREGORY P. ASNER, NAS, Carnegie Institution for Science ADAM BURROWS, NAS, Princeton University JAMES H. CROCKER, NAE,2 Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company (retired) JEFF DOZIER, University of California, Santa Barbara MELINDA DARBY DYAR, Mount Holyoke College ANTONIO L. ELIAS, NAE, Orbital ATK, Inc. (retired) VICTORIA HAMILTON, Southwest Research Institute DENNIS P. LETTENMAIER, NAE, University of California, Los Angeles ROSALY M. LOPES, Jet Propulsion Laboratory STEPHEN J. MACKWELL, American Institute of Physics DAVID J. MCCOMAS, Princeton University LARRY J. PAXTON, Johns Hopkins University ELIOT QUATAERT, University of California, Berkeley MARK SAUNDERS, NASA (retired) BARBARA SHERWOOD LOLLAR, NAE, University of Toronto HOWARD SINGER, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ERIKA B. WAGNER, Blue Origin, LLC PAUL D. WOOSTER, Space Exploration Technologies EDWARD L. WRIGHT, NAS, University of California, Los Angeles Staff COLLEEN N. HARTMAN, Director TANJA PILZAK, Manager, Program Operations CELESTE A. NAYLOR, Information Management Associate MARGARET KNEMEYER, Financial Officer 1 Member, National Academy of Sciences. 2 Member, National Academy of Engineering. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION vi

Reviewers This Proceedings of a Workshop was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published proceedings as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this proceedings: Seebany Datta-Barua, Illinois Institute of Technology, Christine Gabrielse, The Aerospace Corporation, Joe Giacalone, University of Arizona, David Hysell, Cornell University, Susan Lepri, University of Michigan, and Harlan Spence, University of New Hampshire. Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the proceedings nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this proceedings was overseen by Louis J. Lanzerotti, NAE,1 New Jersey Institute of Technology. He was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this proceedings was carried out in accordance with standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the committee and the National Academies. 1 Member, National Academy of Engineering. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION vii

Contents PREFACE xi SUMMARY 1 1 THE SPACE WEATHER COMMUNITY 8 Agency Updates, 8 Interagency Partnerships: New Ways of Working, 14 User Community and Operations, 16 Diversity in Workforce, 19 References, 22 2 RESEARCH, OBSERVATION, AND MODELING NEEDS: THE SUN AND HELIOSPHERE 23 Keynotes, 24 The Sun, 29 The Solar Wind, 32 References, 35 3 RESEARCH, OBSERVATION, AND MODELING NEEDS: MAGNETOSPHERE, 36 IONOSPHERE, THERMOSPHERE, AND MESOSPHERE The Magnetosphere, 37 Ionosphere and Thermosphere, 42 Cross-Scale and Cross-Region Coupling, 46 References, 50 4 RESEARCH, OBSERVATION, AND MODELING NEEDS: GROUND EFFECTS 52 Research Needs, 53 Observation and Modeling Needs, 54 5 MODELING, VALIDATION, AND DATA SCIENCE 57 Keynotes: Data Assimilation and Machine Learning, 58 Machine Learning and Validation, 61 Data Fusion and Assimilation, 64 Ensemble Modeling, 67 Data and Model Resources and Curation, 70 Reference, 73 6 RESEARCH INFRASTRUCTURE 74 The Sun and the Heliosphere, 75 Magnetosphere, Ionosphere, and Thermosphere, 85 Reference, 91 PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION ix

APPENDIXES A Statement of Task 95 B Workshop Agenda 96 C Poster Session at the April 11-14, 2022, Workshop 101 D Acronyms and Abbreviations 105 E Biographies of Committee Members and Staff 109 PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION x

Preface Space weather has been described as “including any and all conditions and events on the sun, in the solar wind, in near-Earth space and in our upper atmosphere that can affect space-borne and ground-based technological systems and through these, human life and endeavor.”1 Affecting technological systems at a global-scale, space weather can disrupt high-frequency radio signals, satellite-based communications, navigational satellite positioning and timing signals, spacecraft operations, and electric power delivery with cascading socioeconomic effects resulting from these disruptions. Space weather can also present an increased health risk for astronauts, as well as aviation flight crews and passengers on transpolar flights.2 Recent executive and legislative efforts have worked toward improving U.S. preparedness for space weather events and strengthening the infrastructure vital to national security and the economy. Notably, in March 2019, the White House released the National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan (NSW- SAP), which contained strategic objectives and actions necessary to achieve a space weather-ready nation and provided guidance for activities of the Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation (SWORM).3 Passage in December 2020 of Public Law 116-181, the Promoting Research and Observations of Space Weather to Improve the Forecasting of Tomorrow Act (PROSWIFT Act), codified the elements of the NSW-SAP, prescribed the roles and objectives of the relevant federal agencies, and directed efforts to improve the transition from research to operations. All these activities speak to the importance of timely and accurate space weather forecasts. In 2019, the National Academies was approached by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the National Science Foundation (NSF) to organize a workshop that would examine the operational and research infrastructure that supports the space weather enterprise, including an analysis of existing and potential future measurement gaps and opportunities for future enhancements. This request was subsequently modified to include two workshops, the first (“Phase I”) of which occurred in two parts on June 16-17 and September 9-11, 2020. A proceedings summarizing that workshop was published in 2021.4 The Phase I workshop was sponsored by NOAA, in consultation with NASA and NSF. The task statement for the workshop focused on space weather operations, including measurement continuity needs. Following the 2020 workshop, NASA and NSF, in consultation with NOAA, requested a follow- on workshop (Phase II) that would focus on the research agenda and observations needed to improve understanding of Sun-Earth interactions that cause space weather. Specifically, the Phase II workshop organizing committee was asked to 1. Examine trends in available and anticipated observations, including the use of constellations of small satellites, hosted payloads, ground-based systems, international collaborations and data buys, that are likely to drive future space weather architectures; review existing and developing technologies for both research and observations; 1 NASA, 2014, “What is Space Weather,” in “Solar Storm and Space Weather - Frequently Asked Questions,” https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/spaceweather/index.html#q5. 2 American Meteorological Society, 2013, “Space Weather,” https://www.ametsoc.org/index.cfm/ams/about- ams/ams-statements/statements-of-the-ams-in-force/space-weather. 3 In 2016, an executive order created the SWORM subcommittee under the auspices of the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) in order to coordinate efforts across the federal government regarding space weather. 4 National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2021, Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop, Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, https://doi.org/10.17226/26128. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION xi

2. Consider the adequacy and uses of existing relevant programs across the agencies, including NASA’s Living With a Star (LWS) program and its Space Weather Science Application initiative, NSF’s Geospace research programs, and NOAA’s Research to Operations (R2O) and Operations to Research (O2R) programs for reaching the goals described above; 3. Consider needs, gaps, and opportunities in space weather modeling and validation, including a review of the status of data assimilation and ensemble approaches; 4. Consider how to incorporate data from NASA missions that are “one-off” or otherwise non- operational into operational environments, and assess the value and need for real-time data (for example, by providing “beacons” on NASA research missions) to improve forecasting models; and 5. Take into account the results of studies, including NASA’s space weather science gap analysis (part of the NASA Heliophysics Division’s Space Weather Science Application program) and the NSF report Investments in Critical Capabilities for Geospace Science (2016), to identify the key elements needed to establish a robust research infrastructure. The Phase II workshop, conducted virtually due to COVID-19 travel restrictions, occurred on April 11-14, 2022, with sessions on agency updates, research needs, data science, observational and modeling needs, and emerging architectures relevant to the space weather research community and with ties to operational needs. The presentations, posters, and videos can be found on the project website, Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure Workshop, Phase II.5 Robert Pool served as a rapporteur for the workshop and provided the committee with an initial draft of the proceedings. The workshop organizing committee planned the sessions by creating a list of questions that would guide the invited speakers to address the workshop task statement issues. Each session was led by a member of the organizing committee. The present proceedings is organized around the workshop agenda (Appendix B), modified for clarity and conciseness. Each chapter starts with a summary of major themes emerging from the workshop presentations and discussions that are relevant to the statement of task. It should be noted that the workshop speakers did not provide direct answers to the task element on the use of “one-off” missions for space weather operation; however, several participants expressed the need for advance cross-mission planning and (international) collaboration in building the infrastructure. Finally, this proceedings includes a summary of discussions on workforce development, which was not explicitly mentioned in the statement of task, but was included as “human infrastructure need.” Chapter 1, which aligns with the topics in Session 1, provides context and background for the workshop. Recognizing the different challenges and needs in research, observation, and modeling in the three key research areas, the Sun and heliosphere, the magnetosphere–ionosphere–thermosphere– mesosphere system, and the Ground Effects, respectively, Chapters 2, 3, and 4 focus on each of these areas separately. The final two chapters cover the entire Sun-Earth system in discussing modeling and validation needs of the space weather research community (Chapter 5), and the future architectures needed to establish a robust research infrastructure (Chapter 6). Addressing future capabilities implies a time scale. Most of the workshop presentations and discussions focused on already existing or shortly upcoming capabilities and assets, as well as the impact of space weather on near-term technological developments (e.g., the impact on systems that will increasingly rely on precision navigation and timing). Given the focus of the discussions, this proceedings covers a time scale of perhaps the next 5-7 years. Finally, it is to be noted that, following National Academies practices, this proceedings of a workshop does not include findings or recommendations. While the workshop organizers sought to get the widest possible representation, the contents of this proceedings is limited to the discussions and presentations given. 5 National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, “Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure Workshop, Phase II,” https://www.nationalacademies.org/our-work/space-weather-operations-and- research-infrastructure-workshop-phase-ii. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION xii

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Affecting technological systems at a global-scale, space weather can disrupt high-frequency radio signals, satellite-based communications, navigational satellite positioning and timing signals, spacecraft operations, and electric power delivery with cascading socioeconomic effects resulting from these disruptions. Space weather can also present an increased health risk for astronauts, as well as aviation flight crews and passengers on transpolar flights.

In 2019, the National Academies was approached by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the National Science Foundation to organize a workshop that would examine the operational and research infrastructure that supports the space weather enterprise, including an analysis of existing and potential future measurement gaps and opportunities for future enhancements. This request was subsequently modified to include two workshops, the first ("Phase I") of which occurred in two parts on June 16-17 and September 9-11, 2020.

The Phase II workshop occurred on April 11-14, 2022, with sessions on agency updates, research needs, data science, observational and modeling needs, and emerging architectures relevant to the space weather research community and with ties to operational needs. This publication summarizes the presentation and discussion of that workshop.

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