The Future of Aviation (2022)

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1 Introduction “The Future of Aviation” (“Insight Event”) was organized by the Transportation Research Board’s (TRB’s) Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP) under ACRP Project 11-08(20-01) as part of its series of convening activities, “ACRP Insight Events.” This event focused on the topic of the future of aviation. As the industry emerges from the greatest challenge to commercial aviation in recent memory and heads into recovery from the global pandemic, aviation professionals seek to understand how the aviation industry should prepare for the next set of challenges and disruptions. Even more than deregulation changed the industry dramatically in the 1970s, recent and emerging technologies are currently transforming the aviation industry today. It is important for industry practitioners to understand, prepare for, and adapt to emerging trends such as Advanced Air Mobility (AAM); on-demand aviation services; smaller aircraft and intraregional flights; electrification of fleets and, eventually, aircraft; commercial supersonic flight; digitization and automation; and sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) as well as other emerging fuels such as hydrogen. These trends must also be considered in the context of climate change and the evolution of social expectations. Preparations for this Insight Event included a thorough literature review, which served to identify the key themes that became organizing principles for the two-day event: People, Infrastructure, Technology and Innovation, and Climate. Several of the thought leaders and practitioners who were involved in the theme selection were then selected to serve on the planning committee for the event. A summary of the literature review is available on the ACRP Insight Event web page at http://www.trb.org/ACRP/ACRP-Insight-Events.aspx. Readers who are interested in more information can e-mail the ACRP Senior Program Officer for the event, Joseph Navarrete, at JNavarrete@nas.edu. The Insight Event took place March 22–23, 2022, at the Keck Center of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (the National Academies) in Washington, DC. The event brought together experts from across the industry for 2 days of thought-provoking dialogue to consider what the next 20, 30, and 50 years might look like for aviation, centered around the four key themes. The program agenda for the event is provided in Appendix A. More than 100 people registered for the event. Registrants’ professional affiliations included airports, airlines, academic institutions, consulting, and more. The full list of registrants is provided in Appendix B. The event led off with opening remarks and an introduction, which set the scene for later discussions. The remainder of the event included a keynote address; six panel sessions, each of which included a moderator and three to five topic experts; two facilitated breakout sessions on previous topics; and a final “Participants Choice” open discussion among all participants. Each panel included several discussion topics identified by the moderator, followed by open discussion sessions with the audience.

2 ACRP is an industry-driven, applied research program that develops near-term, practical solutions to problems faced by airport operators. ACRP is managed by TRB, a part of the National Academies, and is sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). ACRP Insight Events are forums that foster dialogue among professionals across sectors, institutions, and industries. ACRP Insight Events convene airport industry leaders and subject matter experts in various fields to encourage discussion and promote broader and deeper insight on topics of significance to airport operators. These in-depth, face-to-face gatherings are designed to promote communication and collaboration, foster innovation, and help identify areas of future interest and research, especially for topics of emerging importance.