The Future of Aviation (2022)

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3 Opening Remarks Agatha Kessler, Fentress Architects, Chair Gaël Le Bris, WSP USA Agatha Kessler opened the event by welcoming the attendees. She discussed a graphic that showed the interplay of the four key themes of the event (Figure 1). Specifically, while there are myriad future issues that airport professionals need to address, these can be categorized into four general themes: infrastructure, air service, people, and megatrends. The structure and agenda of the Insight Event follows these general themes, but the graphic depicts how they are all interrelated. Kessler also set the bounds of the 2-day discussion: “We are talking about the emerging technologies of today and seeing how they may be adapted/adopted for use over our planning horizon.” FIGURE 1. Interplay of the four key themes of the Insight Event. She then turned to Gaël Le Bris to provide an introduction and food for thought to the attendees based on recent research initiatives such as The Future of Airports: A Vision of 2040 and 2070 with the Airport Think Tank of ENAC Alumni,1 and the workshop “Airport 1 https://www.alumni.enac.fr/en/the-future-of-airports/summary-of-findings-3559.

4 Electrification and Automation for Emerging Aerial Mobility” held during TRB’s 2022 annual meeting. Le Bris started by stating, “We need to write our own future as an industry. If we want to control destiny, we need to build our own future.” He quoted pioneering aviator Antoine de Saint Exupéry: “When it comes to the future, it is not about foreseeing it, but about making it possible.” Le Bris also recalled the predictions of the General Secretary of the War Ministry in the Provisional Government of the French Republic, Alain Bozel, who, in 1944, wrote a memorandum, The Airport of Paris (L’aéroport de Paris), to advocate for the construction of a large-hub aviation facility that would be an international gateway not only for the French capital but also for the entire country. This document provides a vision of the future that includes some modern features that airport planners still struggle to implement. Three main concepts that Bozel described with the words of his time were: (1) the “hub and spoke” system, (2) the aerotropolis concept, and (3) the need for first- and last-mile intermodality. Le Bris encouraged participants to think about the following concepts as they engaged in conversations throughout the Insight Event:2 • The world of 2040 and 2070: By 2040, the United States will be a “majority-minority country;” that is, the majority of the population will be racial or ethnic minorities. The aviation community needs to consider the diversity of passengers and the aviation workforce in its work, including addressing generational and cognitive diversity. Le Bris also recommended that the industry carefully look at long-term demographic and economic trends worldwide. For example, the emergence of Africa as a demographic and economic giant over the second half of the 21st century will result in airlines and airports competing for offering direct service to large African metropolitan areas, similar to what has been seen on routes from the United States to Asia (Figure 2). • Sustainability: Sustainable business plans and new sources of funding: While there have been very few fully privatized airports in the United States (e.g., Luis Muñoz Marín International Airport in San Juan, Puerto Rico), “privatization” has been successful under other forms, such as public–private partnerships, concessions, and other mechanisms. Examples include Terminal 4 at John F. Kennedy International Airport and LaGuardia Airport in New York City. Also, the funding of airports needs to be rethought to help them modernize terminal facilities and address emerging needs that concern all airports, from small general aviation to large hubs (e.g., AAM, new aviation fuels). • Smart airports: In the era of information technologies, information systems have made a deep impact on air transportation. At airports, travelers can now interact with their environment to get personalized, georeferenced information. Airports can leverage this technology to improve wayfinding, for instance. Smartphones enable customization to special needs (e.g., a more Americans with Disabilities Act– or autism-friendly journey 2 Le Bris, G. Way of the Future: Airports at the Horizon of 2040 and 2070. TR News, No. 331, January–February 2021, pp. 3–11.

5 Note: Asia-PAC & ME: Asia, Pacific, and Middle East; LAC: Latin America and Caribbean. Sources: D. Hoornweg and D. Pope, Population Predictions of the 101 Largest Cities in the 21st Century, Global Cities Institute, 2014; World Population Prospects: The 2019 Revision (Median-Variant Prospect), United Nations, 2019. FIGURE 2. Evolution of the worldwide population. through the airport) and provide opportunities for providing directions in multiple languages, something that can be complex and costly with physical signage. Electronic wayfinding can also promote local and endangered languages (e.g., Native American languages, French, Indian French, and Creole languages). The second information technology (IT) revolution is coming. With intelligent systems, airports and their stakeholders will be able to integrate big data into their operations and leverage it to enhance real-time operations, enable predictive resource management, and support the operations community during adverse conditions. • Security threats and unlawful activities: Cyberattacks are on the rise. Airports and their stakeholders are not spared by cyberthreats.3 Collaboration between the stakeholders and across the industry is necessary. Also, the industry needs to collaborate with operators and agencies from other industries to learn from their lessons learned (e.g., Colonial Pipeline), as well as with cybersecurity experts (e.g., MITRE ATT&CK). • Enhancing aviation safety: Historically, the aviation industry was reactive to safety and security events. Currently, the industry is proactive, but, in the future, it will be predictive, thanks to big data and artificial intelligence (AI) that will be able to identify patterns and nascent safety issues through accident/incident reports. Also, the next 3 Murphy, R. J., Sukkarieh, M., Haass, J., and Hriljac, P. ACRP Report 140: Guidebook on Best Practices for Airport Cybersecurity. Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC, 2015.

6 generation of airside safety systems might rely on onboard equipment as well. For instance, it is possible to get an estimate of the runway friction coefficient through aircraft braking action, which is measured by the most recent airliners and which, in turn, could be used to assess and refine the runway condition assessment for everyone’s benefit. • Airside and airspace compatibility: Airports already need to accommodate a greater diversity of aircraft, including single-aisle international, supersonic, hypersonic airplanes and new generations of airliners that are longer, wider, and more power-demanding than the previous ones. Soon, airports may see electric aircraft and uncrewed and unmanned vehicles as well as supersonic and hypersonic aircraft. This diversity will create new challenges in the air (e.g., fleet mix with aircraft of very different approach speeds) and on the ground (e.g., new aviation fuels/energy vectors). Airports, including smaller facilities, might become energy hubs to address the new energy paradigm that is emerging, thereby creating opportunities for new revenue streams and increasing community power resiliency. • Operational performance and resilience: As aviation facilities throughout the National Airspace System—including small hubs and regional airports—are increasingly interconnected, and in the context of more frequent disruptions due to factors including climate change, there is a need for airports to have more resilient operations. Solutions include, for instance, Airport Collaborative Decision Making to manage adverse conditions together with stakeholders4 and use of a microgrid to ensure power resiliency when the electric grid is deficient.5 • Passenger terminals and customer experience: Dubai International Airport and Singapore Changi Airport, two hub airports abroad, are praised for their underground shopping mall and indoor tropical forest, respectively. Le Bris explained that U.S. airport terminal facilities are improving in terms of customer experience and that, instead of pursuing a “wow” effect similar to DXB or SIN, we need to listen to passengers and focus on what they want as well as to balance costs. We shall imagine and develop a 21st-century American experience that shall not make any compromise when it comes to the efficiency of the passenger journey from the curbside to the gate. • Mobility and communities: AAM is on the horizon, and it will change air transportation forever. AAM-like operations already exist in cities such as São Paulo, Brazil, whose downtown accommodates over 400,000 helicopter operations annually (pre-COVID-19) as well as New York City with operators such as Blade. However, aerial innovation should not divert precious public resources away from mass transit. Also, the development of advanced ground access solutions present opportunities to improve the mobility offer and transportation accessibility for the communities around airports that should be involved with their planning. Sustainability and airport-citizens: Aviation generates only about 2% global carbon emissions and about 3.5% of the drivers of 4 Le Bris, G., Nguyen, L.-G., Tagoe, B., Churchill, A., Vail, S., Benaman, H., Fleet, D., Zajkowski, T., and Krieger, J. ACRP Research Report 229: Airport Collaborative Decision Making (ACDM) to Manage Adverse Conditions. Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC, 2021. 5 Heard, R., and Mannarino, E. ACRP Synthesis 91/TCRP Synthesis 137: Microgrids and Their Application for Airports and Public Transit. Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC, 2018.

7 climate change6 but was one of the first sectors to work on the reduction of its carbon footprint. The industry’s first innovations to address climate were developed in mid-2000s. Today, the global aviation industry has committed to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Keys to achieve this objective include operational enhancements, new aerospace technologies, as well as the implementation of non-fossil fuels such as the SAFs as well as electric aviation and hydrogen technologies.7 Aviation is also the first sector to agree on a global initiative such as the International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO) Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA). Sustainability is not limited to climate and ecosystems per se. It shall address quality of life, social and environmental justice, and community resilience. • Human resources and education: Change management and knowledge management will be part of the fundamentals of any efficient and resilient organization in order to adapt the workforce to constant changes and breakthroughs similar to what was the “first IT revolution” with the emergence of information technologies. One of this big change enablers will be the “second IT revolution,” made of intelligent technologies. A diverse workforce and management are crucial for embracing and addressing the complexity of the challenges to come. Diversity is not limited to gender and ethnicity but also includes age, sexual orientation, special needs, cultural background, and socioeconomic status.8 Studies have shown the clear benefits of diversity in organizations.9 Le Bris stated that we have the duty to have diverse groups within the aviation industry and absolutely no excuse not to. The nation has never been more diverse, the world is our guest, and our workforce needs to reflect our commitment to provide affordable, greener, fast, and efficient air mobility to everyone and to connect people together. 6 Lee, D. S., Fahey, D. W., Skowron, A., et al. The Contribution of Global Aviation to Anthropogenic Climate Forcing for 2000 to 2018. Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 244, 2021. 7 Le Bris, G., Nguyen, L.-G., Tagoe, B., Jonat, P., Justin, C. Y., Reindel, E., Preston, K. B., and Ansell, P. J. ACRP Research Report 236: Preparing Your Airport for Electric Aircraft and Hydrogen Technologies. Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC, 2022. 8 Ivey, S., Powers, M., and Clark, A. Building a Business Case for Increasing Diversity in the Transportation Workforce. TR News, No. 323, September–October 2019, pp. 22–27. 9 McMahon, A. M. Does Workplace Diversity Matter? A Survey of Empirical Studies on Diversity and Firm Performance, 2000–09. Journal of Diversity Management, Vol. 5, No. 2, 2010, pp. 37–48. https://doi.org/10.19030/jdm.v5i2.808.