National Academies Press: OpenBook

The Future of Aviation (2022)

Chapter: Keynote Address

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Suggested Citation:"Keynote Address." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. The Future of Aviation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26813.
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Page 8
Page 9
Suggested Citation:"Keynote Address." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. The Future of Aviation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26813.
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Page 9

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8 Keynote Address Max Hirsch, Airport City Academy Hirsch’s keynote focused on his thoughts about the following two questions: (1) What will the airport of the future look like? and (2) What will it take to get from here to there? His research views airports through the lens of airport urbanism (AU), looking at changes in technology and at business models, among other things. AU is a people-focused approach to designing airports and their surrounding area. It focuses on the needs and desires of people who use the airport on a regular basis, who live and work near an airport, and who work at an airport. This approach allows for site-specific development strategies. For example, the Finance Ministry of Iceland has applied this thinking in developing a land use/commercial development strategy for land around its airports by considering the needs of people nearby. Hirsch offered three predictions for future airports: 1. The future airport will be green. For instance, it will be decarbonized through the use of renewables and electrified ground operations. Terminals will rely on a carbon-neutral building and the circular economy. Airports will lead the way to energy independence and will serve as an energy hub, as airport design is conducive to energy storage and charging. 2. The future airport will be multimodal. It will be repositioned as a regional mobility hub. There will be regional traffic in electric planes and AAM in local areas. Passengers in traditional commercial airliners will fly in and out on various fuel sources and will be seamlessly integrated into multimodal ground transportation (rail). Airports will also serve as mobility hubs for cargo, with fulfillment centers near the airport. The airport will be the integrator. Passenger transfers will be frequent, reliable, and painless. 3. The future airport will have a stronger and more resilient business model. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed risks in the current passenger-related revenue business model. During the pandemic, airports that relied on passenger fees did worse than those that had non-passenger-related revenue, such as cargo, landside real estate, and landside terminal concessions. In the future, airports will need to diversify revenue, since revenue diversification will result in financial resilience. There are disruptive events on a regular basis, so airports will need to have a diversified revenue stream to thrive. How will this be achieved? Hirsch presented four possible solutions: 1. Airports need to prioritize sustainable automation and adapt to climate change. Projects such as long-range cargo drones with a 1,500-mile range may address some of these challenges.

9 2. Airports need to improve the relationship between technology and the workforce. For example, a European Union airport with a brand-new automated baggage handling system had no backup plan for system failure. As airports adopt new technology, they should focus on contingency planning with a prepared workforce. 3. With the potential for a changing workforce, airports need to provide training. Automation will reduce frontline staffing and will increase the need for programmers and data analysts. The overall workforce may shrink, but the need for technical knowledge will increase, resulting in fewer but higher-skilled, higher-paying jobs. 4. Airports need to focus on collaborative development with stakeholders and find a balance to leverage land assets. U.S. airports own enormous amounts of land. From an outside perspective, this represents many missed opportunities for development. For example, the main airport in Iceland is 45 minutes from the city center, but the airport houses numerous activities that benefit from its infrastructure, such as security and ground transportation. Now other companies are building facilities for data centers, strategic medical reserves, and package shipping to utilize the land and environment.

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TRB's Airport Cooperative Research Program held an ACRP Insight Event in March 2022 in Washington, DC, to discuss the future of aviation across multiple perspectives. Major topics included passengers and customers, workforce, new entrants, technology, and sustainability.

The TRB ACRP's Conference Proceedings on the Web 29: The Future of Aviation is a compilation of the presentations and a factual summary of the ensuing discussions at the event.

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