Compounding Disasters in Gulf Coast Communities 2020-2021: Impacts, Findings, and Lessons Learned (2024)

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Compounding Disasters in Gulf Coast Communities 2020-2021 Impacts, Findings, and Lessons Learned Committee on Compounding Disasters in Gulf Coast Communities, 2020 2021: Impacts, Findings, and Lessons Learned Gulf Health and Resilience Board Gulf Research Program Consensus Study Report PREPUBLICATION | UNCORRECTED PROOFS 

NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This activity was supported by the Gulf Research Program of the National Academy of Sciences. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-XXXXX-X International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-XXXXX-X Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/27170 This publication is available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2024 by the National Academy of Sciences. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and National Academies Press and the graphical logos for each are all trademarks of the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Compounding Disasters in Gulf Coast Communities, 2020–2021: Impacts, Findings, and Lessons Learned. Washington, DC: National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/27170. PREPUBLICATION | UNCORRECTED PROOFS 

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Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task. Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies. Rapid Expert Consultations published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine are authored by subject-matter experts on narrowly focused topics that can be supported by a body of evidence. The discussions contained in rapid expert consultations are considered those of the authors and do not contain policy recommendations. Rapid expert consultations are reviewed by the institution before release. For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo. PREPUBLICATION | UNCORRECTED PROOFS 

COMMITTEE ON COMPOUNDING DISASTERS IN GULF COAST COMMUNITIES, 2020–2021: IMPACTS, FINDINGS, AND LESSONS LEARNED ROY E. WRIGHT (Chair), President and Chief Executive Officer, Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety JEFF BYARD, Vice President of Operations, Team Rubicon CRAIG COLTEN, Professor of Geography, Louisiana State University (Emeritus) TRACY KIJEWSKI-CORREA, William J. Pulte Director, Pulte Institute for Global Development, Keough School of Global Affairs, University of Notre Dame; Professor of Engineering and Global Affairs; Academic Director, Integration Lab J. MARSHALL SHEPHERD, Georgia Athletic Association Distinguished Professor; Director, Atmospheric Sciences Program, University of Georgia JAMES M. SHULTZ, Associate Professor, Epidemiology Population Health Sciences, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine CHAUNCIA WILLIS-JOHNSON, Chief Executive Officer, Institute for Diversity and Inclusion in Emergency Management Study Staff SASHA ALLISON, Research Associate (as of June 2022) DANIEL BURGER, Study Director, Senior Program Manager JENNIFER COHEN, Senior Program Officer ROBERT GASIOR, Program Officer (as of January 2023) JUAN SANDOVAL, Senior Program Assistant (until June 2022) JESSICA SIMMS, Program Officer EMILY TWIGG, Senior Program Officer (until December 2022) Consultant JAN SUMMERS, Copy editor v PREPUBLICATION | UNCORRECTED PROOFS 

Reviewers This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: ARUN AGRAWAL, University of Michigan MARTHA ARRIETA, University of Southern Alabama LACEY CAVANAUGH, Louisiana Department of Health TIMOTHY COLLINS, University of Utah ANN-MARGARET ESNARD, Georgia State University ATYIA MARTIN, All Aces, Inc. LAURA MYERS, University of Alabama FRANKLIN NUTTER, Reinsurance Association of America (retired) KEVIN SMILEY, Louisiana State University SHANNON VAN ZANDT, Texas A&M University Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by SUSAN CUTTER, University of South Carolina and DOUGLAS MASSEY, Princeton University. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies. vi PREPUBLICATION | UNCORRECTED PROOFS 

Contents PREFACE ix SUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION 17 Study Context and Charge 19 Study Approach 22 Conceptualizing Compounding Disasters 26 Context and Framework For Compounding Disasters 30 Relevant National Academies Reports 39 Organization of the Report 43 2 HAZARDS, EXPOSURE, VULNERABILITIES, AND DISASTER RISK IN THE GULF OF MEXICO REGION 45 Hazards 47 Exposure 57 Vulnerability 65 Summary of Key Findings 102 3 COMPOUNDING DISASTERS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO REGION: 2020–2021 104 Synopsis of Disruptive Events 104 Impacts of Compounding Disasters in Regions of Texas, Louisiana, and Alabama 121 Harris and Galveston Counties, Texas 124 Cameron and Calcasieu Parishes, Louisiana 131 Baldwin and Mobile Counties, Alabama 135 Key Themes From the Information-Gathering Sessions 139 Summary of Key Findings 150 vii PREPUBLICATION | UNCORRECTED PROOFS 

4 INTERDEPENDENT SYSTEMS IN THE CONTEXT OF COMPOUNDING DISASTERS 152 A Systems Approach to Understanding Compounding Disasters 152 The Pandemic, Vulnerabilities, and System Interdependencies 154 Impact of Regionality on Disaster Recovery 169 Summary of Key Findings 171 5 LESSONS LEARNED 173 Lessons Recognized and Learned 173 Lessons Recognized and Learned: Themes from the Information- Gathering Sessions 178 Lessons Recognized and Learned: NGOs, CBOs, and Government Officials 188 Lessons Implemented 192 Lessons Lost 199 Summary of Key Findings 202 6 CONCLUSIONS: REDUCING COMPOUNDING DISASTER RISK BY ADDRESSING VULNERABILITIES AND EXPOSURE AND BUILDING ADAPTIVE CAPACITIES 204 REFERENCES 213 APPENDIX A: Glossary 253 APPENDIX B: Public Meeting Agendas 260 APPENDIX C: Commissioned Paper Abstracts 277 APPENDIX D: Committee Member and Staff Biographical Sketches 279 viii PREPUBLICATION | UNCORRECTED PROOFS 

Preface Disasters interrupt human life. Experiencing a single disaster—be it a hurricane, tropical cyclone, tornado, flood, severe winter storm, or global pandemic—can set off a domino effect of suffering and displacement from normalcy, home, and community for weeks, months, years, or even permanently. Throughout human history, these disruptions have reshaped communities and the prospects of current and future next generations to live healthy, fulfilling lives. However, individual disasters do not occur in isolation within a community’s history. So, what happens when multiple disasters coincide in time and space or occur in such rapid succession that a community has not recovered basic functionality before a new disaster recovery process begins? With each successive punch, vulnerabilities increased, heightening the risk that the next event could provide a knockout blow. These are compounding disasters. The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine’s Gulf Research Program commissioned this study to shed light on the particular experience of Gulf of Mexico communities that endured multiple disasters within an all too brief time frame. The cavalcade of disasters that struck the region between 2020 and 2021 afforded little opportunity to recover between events, stressed systems that underpin critical community functions, and brought an acute focus to the physical, health, and social vulnerabilities that predispose the region to potentially calamitous outcomes. Compounding disasters extend and occur well beyond the Gulf of Mexico, yet the factors in play throughout the Gulf region offer a window—even a magnifying glass—to understand the complexities of risk and to tease out deep learnings and discover pathways that are broadly applicable to building adaptive capacity beyond the occurrence of individual events and most common hazards. While the inflection point of a weather or health disaster may be placed within a specific time frame, the effects often persist for years, resulting in the destabilization of communities across generations. Why this report now? Most in public policy and disaster management take too limited a view of disasters—focused on the event directly in front of them. Given the interconnected realties of disasters that transcend temporal and spatial boundaries, a different view is required. ix PREPUBLICATION | UNCORRECTED PROOFS 

As a nation, it is imperative and increasingly urgent that we more fully communicate the complex nature of the threats that confront our communities. Rapidly intensifying and stronger tropical cyclones may increase due to climate change. We do not choose the time or place of the next pandemic. By continuing to build more in harm’s way and failing to address societal vulnerabilities, we are changing the baseline denominator of disaster risk. Even if the storms were comparable in intensity to prior eras, the effect of those storms continues to grow (sometimes exponentially) as we expand the bull’s eye with more structures and more people in the pathway. When more people are within the zone of impact and then the frequency or severity ramps up, we are on course for more hardship and displacement. Without learning the lessons from our past and growing the adaptive capacities of communities, the effects of compounding disasters will overwhelm us. This report would not have been possible without the generous contribution of numerous community stakeholders, leaders, and experts. The Committee on Compounding Disasters in Gulf Coast Communities, 2020–2021: Impacts, Findings, and Lessons Learned is particularly grateful to the community leaders from Houston-Galveston, Cameron-Calcasieu, and Mobile- Baldwin, whose personal experience and understanding of these issues is unrivaled and coupled with an unwavering commitment to lean in and make necessary changes before the next disaster occurs in their communities. Additionally, the committee thanks Dr. Stephen Strader, Villanova University, and Dr. Jennifer Trivedi, University of Delaware, for their scholarship and production of commissioned papers that augmented the committee’s fact-finding process. Dan Wegendt provided his creative talents in helping the committee graphically depict compounding disaster risk. Finally, the committee acknowledges the staff from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine who served this committee with distinction. Complex concepts, intricate logistics, and insightful editing came together to create a fulsome report and conclusions because of their tireless investment and support. Roy E. Wright, Chair Committee on Compounding Disasters in Gulf Coast Communities, 2020–2021: Impacts, Findings, and Lessons Learned x PREPUBLICATION | UNCORRECTED PROOFS