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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Transportation Research Board and National Research Council. 2003. Securing the Future of U.S. Air Transportation: A System in Peril. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10815.
×

SECURING THE FUTURE OF U.S. AIR TRANSPORTATION

A System in Peril

Committee on Aeronautics Research and Technology for Vision 2050

Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

Studies and Information Services

Transportation Research Board

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Transportation Research Board and National Research Council. 2003. Securing the Future of U.S. Air Transportation: A System in Peril. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10815.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This study was supported by Contract No. NASW-99037 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Transportation Research Board and National Research Council. 2003. Securing the Future of U.S. Air Transportation: A System in Peril. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10815.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.

www.national-academies.org

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Transportation Research Board and National Research Council. 2003. Securing the Future of U.S. Air Transportation: A System in Peril. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10815.
×

COMMITTEE ON AERONAUTICS RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY FOR VISION 2050

RONALD R. FOGLEMAN, Chair,

Durango Aerospace, Inc., Durango, Colorado

JACK CLEMONS,

Lockheed Martin Air Traffic Management, Rockville, Maryland

WILLIAM B. COTTON,

Flight Safety Technologies, Inc., Mount Prospect, Illinois

EUGENE E. COVERT,

Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge

WILLARD J. DODDS,

GE Aircraft Engines, Cincinnati

WILLIAM W. HOOVER,

United States Air Force (retired), Williamsburg, Virginia

S. MICHAEL HUDSON,

Rolls Royce North America (retired), Indianapolis

NANCY G. LEVESON,

Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge

RICHARD MARCHI,

Airports Council International–North America, Washington, D.C.

RICHARD R. PAUL,

The Boeing Company Phantom Works, Seattle

AMY R. PRITCHETT,

Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta

ROBERT J. RAVERA,

RJR Aviation, LLC, Reston, Virginia

SANFORD REDERER,

Aviation Planning and Finance, Arlington, Virginia

HERBERT H. RICHARDSON,

Texas A&M University System, College Station

RUSSELL D. SHAVER III,

RAND, Arlington, Virginia

DAVID D. WOODS,

Ohio State University, Columbus

Staff

ALAN ANGLEMAN, Study Director

KARA BATH, Senior Project Assistant

BRIDGET EDMONDS, Senior Project Assistant

JENNIFER PINKERMAN, Research Associate

GEORGE LEVIN, Director,

Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Transportation Research Board and National Research Council. 2003. Securing the Future of U.S. Air Transportation: A System in Peril. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10815.
×

AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD

WILLIAM W. HOOVER, Chair,

United States Air Force (retired), Williamsburg, Virginia

A. DWIGHT ABBOTT,

Aerospace Corporation (retired), Los Angeles

RUZENA K. BAJSCY,

NAE, IOM, University of California, Berkeley

JAMES BLACKWELL,

Lockheed Martin Corporation, Marietta, Georgia

ANTHONY J. BRODERICK,

Aviation Safety Consultant, Catlett, Virginia

SUSAN COUGHLIN,

Aviation Safety Alliance, Washington, D.C.

ROBERT CRIPPEN,

Thiokol Propulsion, Palm Beach Gardens, Florida

DONALD L. CROMER,

United States Air Force (retired), Fallbrook, California

JOSEPH FULLER,

Futron Corporation, Bethesda, Maryland

RICHARD GOLASZEWSKI,

GRA Incorporated, Jenkintown, Pennsylvania

JAMES M. GUYETTE,

Rolls-Royce, North America, Chantilly, Virginia

JOHN L. JUNKINS,

Texas A&M University, College Station

JOHN M. KLINEBERG,

Space Systems/Loral (retired), Redwood City, California

ILAN M. KROO,

Stanford University, Stanford, California

JOHN K. LAUBER,

Airbus North America, Inc., Washington, D.C.

GEORGE K. MUELLNER,

The Boeing Company, Seal Beach, California

DAVA J. NEWMAN,

Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge

JAMES G. O’CONNOR,

NAE, Pratt & Whitney (retired), Coventry, Connecticut

MALCOLM R. O’NEILL,

Lockheed Martin Corporation, Bethesda, Maryland

CYNTHIA SAMUELSON,

Logistics Management Institute, McLean, Virginia

KATHRYN C. THORNTON,

University of Virginia, Charlottesville

HANSEL E. TOOKES II,

Raytheon International, Inc. (retired), Falls Church, Virginia

DIANNE S. WILEY,

The Boeing Company, Long Beach, California

THOMAS L. WILLIAMS,

Northrop Grumman, Bethpage, New York

Staff

GEORGE LEVIN, Director

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Transportation Research Board and National Research Council. 2003. Securing the Future of U.S. Air Transportation: A System in Peril. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10815.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Transportation Research Board and National Research Council. 2003. Securing the Future of U.S. Air Transportation: A System in Peril. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10815.
×

Preface

In the past few years, the current status and future vision of the U.S. air transportation system have been examined in numerous studies. NASA’s recent Aeronautics Blueprint notes that the United States and the world are becoming “more dependent on the ability to move goods and people faster and more efficiently by air…. Over the last century, aviation has evolved to become an integral part of our economy, a cornerstone of our national defense, and an essential component of our way of life…. Americans per capita use aviation more than any other country in the world, … [and nonbusiness] personal travel accounts for more than 50 percent of commercial air transportation.” 1

What is needed now is vigorous action to refine and achieve the broadly held future vision of an air transportation system that can meet consumer demands for safety, security, comfort, and convenience; public demands for environmental compatibility; and national economic demands for a globally competitive civil aeronautics industry. Achieving this vision will not be easy—and will not be possible without strong national leadership. Fortunately, sometimes the flow of history leads to a confluence of events that creates an opportunity to meet great challenges. As suggested by this committee in a letter report dated August 14, 2002,2 the 100th anniversary of powered flight, which will take place in December 2003, provides an excellent opportunity both to create a bold new vision for air transportation and to initiate vigorous action by government agencies and private organizations to pursue that vision. Allowing this opportunity to pass without action would be a tragic mistake.

Ronald Fogleman, Chair

Committee on Aeronautics Research and Technology for Vision 2050

1  

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). 2002. Aeronautics Blueprint. Available online at <www.aerospace.nasa.gov/aero_blueprint/index.html>.

2  

National Research Council (NRC). 2002. Aeronautics Research and Technology for 2050: Assessing Visions and Goals—Letter Report. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. Available online at <www.nap.edu/catalog/10518.html>.

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Transportation Research Board and National Research Council. 2003. Securing the Future of U.S. Air Transportation: A System in Peril. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10815.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Transportation Research Board and National Research Council. 2003. Securing the Future of U.S. Air Transportation: A System in Peril. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10815.
×

Acknowledgments

This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the National Research Council (NRC). The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:


Daniel Brand, Charles River Associates,

Jack E. Buffington, Mack-Blackwell National Rural Transportation Study Center,

Richard M. Carlson, Consultant,

Robert A. Davis, The Boeing Company (retired),

John J. Fearnsides, Lockheed Martin Air Traffic Management,

Gerald J. Iafrate, North Carolina State University,

Ilan Kroo, Stanford University,

Amedeo R. Odoni, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,

Clinton V. Oster, Jr., Indiana University,

Thomas B. Sheridan, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,

Agam N. Sinha, The MITRE Corporation,

Edmond L. Soliday, United Airlines (retired), and

Bill G.W. Yee, Belcan Corporation.


Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Lester A. Hoel, University of Virginia, and Adib K. Kanafani, University of California, Berkeley. Appointed by the NRC, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

The committee also wishes to thank all those who supported the work of the committee, particularly Stephen Godwin, Director, Studies and Information Services, of the NRC’s Transportation Research Board, and all those who participated in the committee’s information-gathering meetings during Phase 1 or Phase 2, either in person or via teleconference:

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Transportation Research Board and National Research Council. 2003. Securing the Future of U.S. Air Transportation: A System in Peril. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10815.
×

Andy Anderegg, The MITRE Corporation

Gary Anderson, Army Research Office

Dale Ashby, Sikorsky

Doug Ball, The Boeing Company

Tom Berry, The MITRE Corporation

Alan Bloodgood, Lockheed Martin Air Traffic Management

James G. Boyd IV, Texas A&M University

Steve Brueck, University of New Mexico

Robert Buley, Northwest Airlines

Carl Burleson, Federal Aviation Administration

Philip Carrigan, Raytheon Air Traffic Management

Walt Coleman, Regional Airline Association (retired)

Sarah Dalton, Alaska Airlines

James W. Danaher, National Transportation Safety Board (retired)

Duane Dupon, Federal Aviation Administration

Igor Frolow, IBM Global Services

Pam Gernier, The MITRE Corporation

John R. Hansman, Jr., Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Pres Henne, Gulfstream Aerospace

Richard J. Hill, Air Force Research Laboratory

Urmila Hiremath, The MITRE Corporation

Gerald J. Iafrate, North Carolina State University

Siegfried Janson, Aerospace Corporation

Margaret Jenny, Consultant

John L. Junkins, Texas A&M University

Jack Kerrebrock, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Alexander (Sasha) Klein, Preston Aviation Solutions

Larry Knolhoff, Department of Defense, Office of the National Security Space Architect

Peter Kostiuk, Logistics Management Institute

Ilan Kroo, Stanford University

Frederick Kuhl, The MITRE Corporation

Andrew Lacher, The MITRE Corporation

Richard Lareau, Transportation Security Administration

Timothy Lewis, Air Force Research Laboratory

Robert Liebeck, The Boeing Company

Sanford D. Mangold, Department of Defense, Office of the National Security Space Architect

Lourdes Maurice, Federal Aviation Administration

John McCarthy, Naval Research Laboratory

Jack McGuire, The Boeing Company

Robert E. McKinley, Jr., NASA Langley Research Center

Dennis A. Muilenburg, The Boeing Company

Raja Parasuraman, Catholic University of America

Paul Piscopo, Department of Defense

George Price, NASA Headquarters

Blaine Rawdon, The Boeing Company

Herm Rediess, Federal Aviation Administration

Othon Rediniotis, Texas A&M University

John Rekstad, Federal Aviation Administration

Harold Rosenstein, The Boeing Company

Karlin Roth, NASA Ames Research Center

Lillian Ryals, The MITRE Corporation

Marvin Schmidt, Universal Technology Corporation

Robert Schwab, The Boeing Corporation

Walt Smith, Pratt & Whitney

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Transportation Research Board and National Research Council. 2003. Securing the Future of U.S. Air Transportation: A System in Peril. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10815.
×

Ed Stevens, Raytheon Air Traffic Management

Jeffrey M. Stricker, Air Force Research Laboratory

Bob Vilhauer, The Boeing Corporation

Jim Walton, UPS Advanced Flight Systems

Fred Wieland, The MITRE Corporation

Rob Williams, Boeing Phantom Works

Richard Wlezien, NASA Headquarters

Ron York, Rolls-Royce North America

Rick Zelenka, The Boeing Corporation

Andres Zellweger, NASA Headquarters

Dorothy Zolandz, Nationa Research Council

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Transportation Research Board and National Research Council. 2003. Securing the Future of U.S. Air Transportation: A System in Peril. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10815.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Transportation Research Board and National Research Council. 2003. Securing the Future of U.S. Air Transportation: A System in Peril. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10815.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Transportation Research Board and National Research Council. 2003. Securing the Future of U.S. Air Transportation: A System in Peril. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10815.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Transportation Research Board and National Research Council. 2003. Securing the Future of U.S. Air Transportation: A System in Peril. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10815.
×

Tables and Figures

TABLES

B-1

 

Comparison of Future Goals and Visions for Civil Aeronautics,

 

56

D-1

 

Fundamental Thermodynamic Cycles (nonregenerative),

 

64

D-2

 

Matrix Summary of Propulsion Taxonomy,

 

65

FIGURES

3-1

 

Generic inputs into an air transportation system performance model,

 

20

3-2

 

Fundamental air traffic management modernization requires analytical approaches with two different starting points,

 

22

4-1

 

Nontraditional aircraft concepts: strut-braced wing, joined wing, and blended-wing-body,

 

32

4-2

 

Unducted fan demonstrator ready for flight,

 

33

4-3

 

Thermal efficiency versus pressure ratio for conventional heat engine cycles,

 

34

4-4

 

Predictions made in 1968 of subsonic thrust-specific fuel consumption, updated with data on operational systems developed since 1968,

 

35

D-1

 

Thermal efficiency of the Otto, Brayton, and Carnot cycles,

 

66

E-1

 

Generic inputs for a model of airport capacity,

 

68

E-2

 

Ratio of expected demand to airport throughput capacity as a function of time (2000 to 2015) and planned airport and terminal area improvements for the 31 largest U.S. airports,

 

68

E-3

 

Influence of runway capacity and number of available gates on throughput at the 30 busiest airports in the United States in visual meteorological conditions,

 

69

E-4

 

Impact of traffic growth on scheduling predictability at a major U.S. airport in visual meteorological conditions for 1997 (real data) and 2010 (projected data),

 

70

E-5

 

Economic losses caused by undercapacity at U.S. airports, assuming that improvements to the air transportation system occur as scheduled,

 

70

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Transportation Research Board and National Research Council. 2003. Securing the Future of U.S. Air Transportation: A System in Peril. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10815.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Transportation Research Board and National Research Council. 2003. Securing the Future of U.S. Air Transportation: A System in Peril. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10815.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Transportation Research Board and National Research Council. 2003. Securing the Future of U.S. Air Transportation: A System in Peril. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10815.
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As recently as the summer of 2001, many travelers were dreading air transportation because of extensive delays associated with undercapacity of the system. That all changed on 9/11, and demand for air transportation has not yet returned to peak levels. Most U.S. airlines continue to struggle for survival, and some have filed for bankruptcy. The situation makes it difficult to argue that strong action is urgently needed to avert a crisis of undercapacity in the air transportation system. This report assesses the visions and goals for U.S. civil aviation and technology goals for the year 2050.

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