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81 A.1 Momentum Scenario Momentum Scenario Synopsis The current state of the country in 2050 would still be recognizable to any transportation planner who had worked in the year 2010. Change has been incremental based primarily on population dynamics, and we have not experienced any major shifts from prevailing demographic, economic, or technology trends. Nor have there been major policy shifts. America has become âgrayerâ as the Baby Boom generation has aged and âbrownerâ as the white population has slower growth rate than every other racial group. Likewise, the U.S. labor force has grown older and more diverse. We see an overall increase in VMT, but a decline in per capita VMT. Baby Boomers have continued their reliance on the auto as their primary travel mode, but young adults have declining driverâs licensing rates, auto ownership, and auto usage. They also rely more on technology to substitute for travel when possible, but telework is not prevalent due to the fact that most young adults access the Internet via mobile devices. Road congestion has decreased only somewhat. Federal gas taxes have risen a few times, but not enough to keep up with the increases in fuel economy. As a result, with less federal funding, many states have had to increase their own funding streams if they want to maintain their existing road network. Population Growth Population growth in the first half of the 21st century was slow rela- tive to the second half of the 20th century, but the growth rate is still higher than other developed countries. Population growth was driven largely by relatively high fertility rates among Hispanic women (both native and foreign born) and by continuing immigration in younger age groups. Also, while the U.S. population has aged, it has also experienced an extended life span. There has been a significant increase in the popu- lation age 65 and older, as the Baby Boom generation has entered and passed through this age category. Health While people are living a little longer, life expectancy is not increasing; the obesity epidemic has led to an increase in related conditions, such as diabetes. So while people are living an extra year or two, their quality of life is often not particularly high. A P P E N D I X A Scenario Narratives
82 The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand Economic Growth The economy, after recovering from the Great Recession of 2008, has been fairly reliableânot growing enormously, but not sputtering either. Labor Force Americaâs labor force growth rate is declining relative to the second half of the 20th century, mostly because of structural changes in the labor force. As the Baby Boom generation moved from middle age, with high participation rates, to the older age groups with significantly lower participation rates, the overall labor force participation rate declined. Over the past 40 years, the United States has also experienced declining labor participation rates for young adults. Still, incomes and inflation have moved at a fairly steady pace, so we have not experienced major increases in poverty or wealth. Family Arrangements The gap in labor force participation has narrowed between men and women over the past 40 years. Over the year, women have comprised a majority of Baby Boomers who have delayed retirement. Women have had increasingly higher education attainment than men, so have stayed in school longer, delaying their entry into the labor force. With the difficulties young adult males have faced in employment, we have seen slow rates of household formation, creating more single house- holds and more multigenerational, large households. But the average household size has remained about the same as 2010. Immigration The United States continues to attract immigrants, both legal and illegal, since our countryâs economic position is still better than many countries. Some portion of the immigrant population is drawn by the increase in low-wage health service or retail trade jobs, and others seek higher- skilled, information sector work. In the past 40 years, Hispanics have accounted for a majority of the total growth of the labor force. Technology Advances The technological revolution wrought by cellular and smart phones continues, and the speed and volume of data have increased exponen- tially. No major breakthroughs or new devices have come to market, but the quality and quantity of access are much higher. High-speed data access is essentially a utility now, not unlike electricity, gas, or water. Most people access the Internet via mobile devices. Only some people with broadband connections can work remotely, but more socializing takes place virtually than ever before. Urbanization The effect of technology has untethered decisions about where to live from the workplace, at least for many white-collar employees. Some have preferred urban lifestyles, with higher densities and shopping and entertainment within easy reach. Others have moved to the outskirts, where schools remain better than in cities and housing prices are more affordable. Baby Boomers have tended to age almost in place, and have continued to drive and own cars. Young adults have tended to locate in high-density, pedestrian-friendly neighborhoods of the center city and inner suburbs, as they continue to be attracted by the densities of jobs available as well as by access to alternative transportation modes. The cost of car ownership as a percentage of income has continued to make owning a car, versus sharing one, less desirable to younger per- sons. The net effect has been that urban and inner suburban growth has continued to outpace growth in the outer suburbs. Overall about 85 percent of Americans live in urban or suburban areas. The rural share of the U.S. population has declined considerably.
Scenario Narratives 83 Energy and Energy and transportation technologies have not changed very much Sustainability in the past few decades. Oil prices have continued their cyclical jour- ney upwardâoccasional spikes followed by retreats. While there are more electric vehicles, extended-range electric vehicles, and hybrids on the road now than when they were first introduced, they are still a niche market. Most of those buyers have a strong environmental bent, but no manufacturer has introduced a model with mainstream appeal that would overcome the larger price tag. With creeping versus rocket- ing gas prices, most buyers do not think itâs worth it, especially when the average car gets over 50 miles per gallon thanks to the 2025 Corpo- rate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards. Vehicle Technology Most vehicles today are safer to drive, due to advanced driver assistance systems, such as lane-keeping sensors, which have been good for older people who have continued to buy, own, and drive automobiles. But the hype around autonomous vehicles proved to be overblown. Insurance commissioners were reluctant to allow self-driving vehicles, and the high prices meant that there has been no popular pressure to legalize them. Travel Behavior Travel demand and funding have changed a bit more. Commute travel has decreased somewhat, thanks to technology and declining labor par- ticipation. However, workers in low-wage service-sector jobs, many of whom are Hispanics, have not been able to rely on technology to sub- stitute for travel. So they continue to drive and carpool in older vehicles and use public transit to travel to work. People are also still on the roads a fair amount for shopping and personal business, but conges- tion levels are manageable. Transportation Federal gas taxes have risen a few times, but not enough to keep up with Finance the increases in fuel economy. As a result, with less federal funding, many states have had to increase their own funding streams if they want to maintain their existing road network. (Not many new roads are being built these days.) Pressure from the states led the federal government to lift restrictions on tolling interstate highways, so most highways now have some type of paid express lane, or all lanes are tolled. A.2 Technology Triumphs Scenario Technology Triumphs Scenario Synopsis Technology has saved us from ourselves. While the United States faced some difficult challenges in the 2010s, many of these have been mitigated by innovations through 2050 that helped us live longer, reduce our carbon footprint, connect our world, and travel more easily and safely. Autonomous vehicles have changed how people travel, and data-intensive communications technology has significantly affected how much people travel. Commute travel has declined, since a high proportion of office workers now work from home with new types of mobile devices, and schooling and health care are mostly handled online. Fewer people live near their jobs, since their physical presence is seldom required. Much socializing also takes place virtually, and many weekly necessities are delivered to peoplesâ doors. The travel that does take place tends to be faster, cheaper, and more convenient than ever.
84 The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand Technology Advances Personal devices continued to evolve and gain in computing power as well as security, and competition led to both falling prices and wide- spread access and adoption. The reach of the Web of Things where just about everything (people, homes, cars, objects on the street) seamlessly interacts with smartphones and with each other is ubiquitous. High- speed data are considered a necessary utility, along with electricity, gas, and water. Computing costs have fallen, meaning that all schools are able to access virtual content and use computers in new ways in the classroom, and this, to a large extent, has reduced the achievement gap between high- and low-income students and schools. Advances in communications have also spurred healthy competition among coun- tries. Governments have adopted cross-national common standards for data privacy to ensure that information remains protected across borders, and the standards are rigorously enforced. Population Growth Population growth in the first half of the 21st century was on par with the growth of the 20th century. Health Major advances in stem cell research and targeted drugs made many illnesses curable or chronic, rather than fatal. This made a huge differ- ence in longevity; an American born today can reasonably expect to live to 90, and many people will reach 100. Most of these added years are healthy ones, and itâs not uncommon for 80- and 90-year-olds to continue working, travelling, and living independently. Economic Growth The economy, after recovering from the Great Recession of 2008, has been very strong due to a booming technology sector. The techno- logical revolution can be considered a triumph of both the public and the private sectors. The public sector finally got serious about edu- cation and incentives. After a decade of realizing that our students were outscored in math and science by other countries, consensus emerged to shift investments to science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) education. The federal government also made more funds available for research and development, and provided promis- ing start-ups in key areas with low-interest loans. The structure of tax incentives for targeted areas, such as clean energy, was stream- lined and made permanent, so that entrepreneurs with good ideas were able to count on them being in place year after year. It would be hard to overstate the collective impacts of these revolutions on the economy, although they seem as normal as cars and telephones a century ago. But the wealth distribution favors the educated, who benefit most from technology funding, access, and use. Labor Force Americaâs labor force growth rate has remained steady relative to the second half of the 20th century. Baby Boomers have delayed retirement because they are healthier and because technology has enabled more people to work from home for more types of jobs. With a strong economy, the generations after Baby Boomers, Gen Xâers, and Millennials have experienced a strong job market since the 2020s. Family Arrangements With a growing economy, family sizes are growing due to the presence of children. There are fewer multigenerational households as elderly
Scenario Narratives 85 parents have technology options for remaining in their own homes, and young people are moving into their own residences because they can afford to. Young adults are opting to delay marriage with greater social opportunities provided by âvirtualâ living. Immigration International migration to the United States has increased to the levels seen in the 1990s. While immigration is still regulated, more countries have adopted looser standards for work-based immigra- tion, meaning that people with in-demand skills can move from country to country more freely. Urbanization Fewer people live near their jobs or retail or many services, since their physical presence is seldom required. We see greater move- ment to the rural/exurban areas, without the long commutes usually associated with such locations. Energy and Energy costs have declined. Carbon sequestration was perfected, Sustainability allowing many emissions to be buried harmlessly underground. Fast battery charging for electric vehicles, combined with standardiza- tion of battery sizes, meant wide adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). These two innovations have not entirely stopped the effects of cli- mate change, but they do mean that responding to climate change has not entailed any sacrifices or economic disruption. People still use air conditioning but the added energy use produces fewer emis- sions than previously. Vehicle Technology Autonomous vehicles have had an enormous impact. With their easy availabilityâin most places, summoning a shared autonomous vehicle takes only a few minutes, and the transaction is billed automaticallyâ vehicle ownership is down. Auto manufacturers are still busy churning out fleets of autonomous EVs, and many have entered the lucrative car- sharing business. Car sharing is no longer limited to environmentally minded urbanites; many suburban and even rural communities rely on it heavily. Older people who prefer not to drive have retained high mobility, and far fewer people die in automobile crashes. Travel Behavior Although autonomous vehicles have changed how people travel, data-intensive communications technology has also affected how much people travel. Commute travel has declined, since a high pro- portion of office workers now work from home. Travel for educa- tion, health, and even socializing is down as well, as people take advantage of convenient and plentiful tele-education, tele-health, and tele-shopping options. Much socializing also takes place virtu- ally, and many weekly necessities are delivered to peopleâs doors. The travel that does take place tends to be faster, cheaper, and more con- venient than ever. This has to a large degree altered the demand for fixed public transit services. People are traveling less on all modes. Public transport service that does exist is leaner and more agile than the fixed mass transit systems that comprised Americaâs aging infra- structure at the turn of the 21st century. Transportation Private-sector funding of transportation infrastructure increases the Finance quality and quantity of vehicle, transit, and nonmotorized infra- structure. Improved technology makes travel more efficient.
86 The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand A.3 Global Chaos Scenario Global Chaos Scenario Synopsis The past few decades have challenged Americansâ general optimism, and the world has become a far different and more difficult place in 2050. Several trends intersected to bring about a distressing new normal: growing financial instability at a global scale, a continuing Great Recession in the United States, the increasing and visible impact of climate change, and a reactionary sense of new isolationism. The results, which affect most of the world, are heightened insecurity (over jobs, food, and oil) and chronic conflicts (over jobs, food, and oil). Widespread unemployment means that far fewer people are on the roads and transit systems. With state and local governments collecting relatively little revenue, they have a hard time maintaining the existing infrastructure or responding to crises, like returning travel to normal after a major storm. Walking and cycling are far more popular now, but generally out of necessity rather than choice, and people with cars often make extra money on the side as gypsy cabs. Energy and The United States has experienced severe shifts in weather patterns Sustainability over the past 30 years as the result of unchecked carbon emissions. While the worldâs countries had long tried to negotiate binding and far-reaching limits on emissions, economic competition among countries in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis precluded this out- come. The United States and China refused to curtail their emissions, and by 2025 the carbon concentrations were too high to respond to mitigation measures. Economic Growth Pressure on the worldâs resources due to political instability and cli- mate change has been significantly damaging to the global economy over the past 40 years. Demand for basic commodities, such as wheat, corn, soya, iron ore, and copper have soared, have caused sudden price rises, and have triggered overreactions and even militarized responses. Volatility of prices is the new normal, hitting both consumers and producers. Compounding the problems, speculation has exacerbated price volatility. Commodity price volatility has proved damaging for the global economy, because it has increased the risk of producing resources. This deters investment in resource production, further reducing supply and pushing up prices. Global trade is so inter- connected that the United States has not been able to remain insulated from these problems. The U.S. federal government was overwhelmed with demands for basic social services, as well as public outrage that conditions had deteriorated so far and so fast. At the local level, in those areas hardest hit, keeping order is the most pressing challenge. Overall the mood combines resignation and anger, as well as disbelief that economic progress seems to belong to the distant past. Population Growth Population growth is declining due to the poor economy. Health Americanâs health status has declined overall due to a lack of focus on health care and poor environmental conditions. While many
Scenario Narratives 87 locations are negatively affected by more powerful storms, lead- ing to massive coastal flooding, the devastating change is in food production. Many formerly fertile areasâthe American Midwest, Australia, Ukraineâare subject to extreme droughts beginning in the late 2010s. The decreasing supply of food resulted in food riots around the world, starting in developing countries but progressing to developed ones where income inequality meant that starvation is beginning to occur even in prosperous areas. As governments panic about not being able to feed their own people, several key food producers suddenly ban exports, and by 2022 regional famine in many countries, other than the United States, is widespread. Labor Force As food prices rise, demand for other goods and services falls, leading to slow or no growth in many economic sectors. This becomes a vicious cycle, with unemployment growing just as many people lack sufficient income to feed themselves. Many older Americans are forced to delay retirement because a fiscally constrained U.S. retirement system has continually raised the retirement age and reduced social security benefits. Young adults are leaving school and entering the workforce at a younger age to support dwindling household incomes. Women are leaving the workforce to create more opportunities for their fathers, husbands, and children. Family Arrangements Household size declines overall due to declining birth rates, even though adult children remain living with parents or elderly parents are moving in with their children. Immigration In its wake, climate refugees begin to crowd into less affected northern countries, some of whom have ironically benefited from a warming globe in terms of agricultural production. Russia and Europe are besieged with climate refugees, and tensions with their own popula- tions grow. The United States and many European countries begin tightening their borders in response, but demand remains high and illegal immigration continues. Technology Advances In the poor economy, people have not been able to purchase the latest smartphones or other personal technology devices. Household members often share devices if the household can afford the prices of a service provider. There is a large market for used devices both for consumers and for businesses. Urbanization The more enterprising of Americans begin establishing self-sufficient farms in sparsely populated areas, but many do not have the financial means to leave the cities, where conditions are worsening. People have been stuck in place geographically for nearly a decade. Travel Behavior Widespread unemployment means that far fewer people are on the roads and transit systems. They have neither jobs to go to nor dis- posable income for shopping or vacations. Walking and cycling are far more popular now, but generally out of necessity rather than choice, and people with cars often make extra money on the side as gypsy cabs. Ironically, many urbanites would welcome congestion as a sign of much-needed economic activity, but the highways are largely empty.
88 The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand Transportation With state and local governments collecting relatively little revenue, Finance they have a hard time maintaining the existing infrastructure or responding to crises, like returning travel to normal after a major storm, much less investing in new capacity. A.4 Gentle Footprint Scenario Gentle Footprint Scenario Synopsis After droughts and âsuperstormsâ begin plaguing the United States in the 2010s, both public consciousness and political will in the 2020s begin shifting toward taking more serious action to slow climate change. While it is too late to curb the rise in carbon concentration in the atmosphere, the United States has made surprisingly good progress in adopting a variety of means to reduce energy consumption. Many lifestyle changes that may once have been considered radical are now mainstream, particularly since the generational divide between Baby Boomers and younger generations on energy and environmental priorities has narrowed over time. Federal, state, and local governments have responded by shifting their focus to investments that support alternative modes, rather than cars. Most cities and suburbs have good networks of bicycle lanes, and transit systems have expanded, while the size of the road network has barely budged in 20 years. High-speed rail has been built in a half-dozen corridors, and it captures a healthy percentage of travel between those cities. Energy and Sustainability With visible evidence of climate change in the form of droughts and superstorms becoming quite prevalent in the United States in the 2010s and 2020s, both public consciousness and political will have begun shifting toward taking more serious action to slow climate change. The younger generations already had such priorities in place. While it is too late to curb the rise in carbon concentra- tion in the atmosphere by the late 2020s, the U.S. has made surpris- ingly good progress in adopting a variety of means to reduce energy consumption in the past 20 years. Much of the transformation has begun with legislation in the 2020s to introduce carbon taxes that affected all sectors of the economy: transportation, energy, manu- facturing, and communications. The tax is structured to phase in gradually and increase in predictable increments in the future. This has provided both producers and consumers several years to prepare for cost increases, which have lessened what may have been a deleteri- ous economic impact. It also has taken setting the price of emitting carbon out of the hands of legislators and has put it into the hands of technocrats, thus alleviating political pressure not to increase the tax. Population Growth Population growth in the first half of the 21st century is slow rela- tive to the second half of the 20th century. Health Many households have experimented with growing at least some of their own food, and schools so frequently teach gardening and nutrition that itâs hard to find a curriculum without it. At the
Scenario Narratives 89 supermarkets, food miles and calories share space on the same information panel. As people eat better and walk more, obesity has declined, and life expectancy has increased. Economic Growth To the surprise of some, far from becoming a drain on the econ- omy, the carbon tax has unleashed a torrent of innovation (and new jobs) from the private sector. Labor Force Labor force participation rates have not changed much in the past several decades, but the sectors of employment have changed. Many people have their own home-based or farm-based busi- ness. Fewer people seem to be participating in the ârat race.â On surveys, most Americans report they prefer a job with shorter hours than one with a higher salary. Americans now live at a more relaxed pace. Family Arrangements Americans have also been making different personal decisions, driven not only by higher prices on energy but by a different envi- ronmental ethos. Fertility rates have declined as more couples choose to minimize their environmental impact by having smaller families. Immigration International migration has increased, as environmental technol- ogy businesses require tech workers and âback to basicsâ farming requires migrant labor. Technology Advances The technological revolution wrought by cellular and later smart- phones continues, and the speed and volume of data have increased. Major breakthroughs seem to be in the area of environmental tech- nology, which has funding from surpluses of the carbon tax. Urbanization Another shift is the trend toward more urban ways of living. As gas prices rise with the addition of the carbon tax, more and more people look for places to live where they will depend less on cars. Inner-ring suburbs, with their smaller lots and houses, have boomed, and much new development consists of row houses and small apartment buildings with modern conveniences but smaller square footage. Most households now own only one vehicle, meeting their other transportation needs on foot, bicycles, or transit. Vehicle Technology Car companies compete to put out the most efficient vehicle pos- sible, even surpassing the 2025 CAFE standards, and the charging stations for EVs become as common as gas stations. Older peo- ple still prefer their autos, but they opt for smaller, fuel-efficient vehicles, even if they are not necessarily safer. Energy producers invest in alternative sources, such as wind and solar. While these sources will never meet all the countryâs energy needs, they rep- resent a far larger proportion than before the climate legislation passed. Travel Behavior Most cities and suburbs have good networks of bicycle lanes, and transit systems have expanded, while the size of the road network has barely budged in 20 years. High-speed rail has been built in a half-dozen corridors, and it captures a healthy percentage of
90 The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand travel between those cities. Air travel has reverted to being a mode for the affluent, and airlines log fewer miles now. Some airlines have even partnered with high-speed rail to provide feeder ser- vice to their hubs, since it is less costly to move those passengers on rail. Transportation Finance There is a strong federal government role in transportation infra- structure funding and policy making. Federal, state, and local gov- ernments have responded by shifting their focus to investments that support alternative modes, rather than cars. There is little investment in new road capacity.
