Summary

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine formed the Committee for the Assessment of Partnership Options for a Small Satellite System for Collecting Scientific Quality Oceanic and Coastal Data to address the following objectives within the statement of task:

In fulfilling its charge to the statement of task, the committee’s approach to the assessment relied on the experience, technical knowledge, and broad expertise of its members. The committee did not attempt to report an exhaustive assessment of every potential partnership option or every available approach to implementation. The committee’s first objective was to provide enduring value by identifying and focusing on which government mission areas could most utilize and benefit from commercial New Space capabilities for space access (defined in Box S.1 below). Its second goal was to determine current challenges and future opportunities for redefining space infrastructure in order to become more amenable to sustainable partnerships together with identifying acquisition methods capable of serving multiple stakeholders.

GENERAL OBSERVATIONS

The opportunities discussed in this report derive from the explosive growth of New Space technology serving both the commercial and government sectors (discussed in Chapter 2). SmallSat technology (described in Box S.1) has dramatically changed the paradigm of how commercial satellites are procured, developed, and launched by government agencies. The technology and associated space development continue to evolve rapidly and are generally referred to as the New Space ecosystem in this report. The intended definition is modeled after the “Silicon Valley” ecosystem,¹ where the government is an important partner in creating a healthy and self-sustaining relationship with the commercial sector to provide space products as well as associated innovations of the space business itself. As one might expect, there are many new terms associated with such a paradigm shift, meaning that the terminology for the discussion in this report of current and future trends requires careful and specific definition. For consistency and clarity, the committee uses the following terms listed in Box S.1 throughout the report.

Within the past decade, an ever-growing number of New Space organizations have emerged that are unencumbered by legacy practices and constraints. By reimagining, creating, and continuously improving SmallSat space technology, a new and growing space ecosystem is now in place that is capable of serving a broad stakeholder community of both traditional users and new or nontraditional users. For the purposes of this report, traditional users primarily entail government departments and agencies with missions that support intelligence, defense, and civil space that were generally confined to large spacecraft developed by government contractors employing expensive but proven development methods. New or nontraditional users are typically smaller scientific missions, technology maturation programs or other applications that previously were unable to access space often owing to lack of experience or resources. Space access for these users was either unavailable or limited through dependence on traditional space partners.

Current commercial practices are expanding with capabilities including technology and business-driven applications that open the door to a broad and vibrant ecosystem offering a wide range of solutions capable of supporting a growing range of stakeholders. In parallel to traditional approaches, space infrastructure related to manufacturing, such as customized spacecraft buses,² instruments, and sensors—including high-resolution imaging and radar systems rivaling the performance of traditional systems—are emerging in both growing volume and with constantly improving capability. On the operational commercial ground, stations are now routinely available, as are data management and analytics, including cloud computing for data access and archiving. Thus, if properly encouraged and nourished, a broadly capable ecosystem can emerge, including new business opportunities for data fusion, analysis, and data-buys, as well as ground/space communications that can equally benefit both traditional and nontraditional user communities.

Although these evolving systems are not yet in a fully transportable commercial technology state—for example, spacecraft systems still lack interoperability—these capabilities and services are still opening a growing range of possibilities for the business of space for all types of users. Public–private partnerships (PPPs) and other innovative procurement approaches can enhance national missions focused on communications, remote sensing, and military intelligence, as well as new mission areas focused on scientific data collection in oceanography, hydrology, atmosphere, climate, monitoring natural and human-made disasters, imaging, and navigation—together with yet unknown new and opportunistic applications.

From 2011 to 2020, 75 percent (2,972) of all spacecraft launched worldwide were SmallSats.³ Within this period, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Department of Defense (DoD) led the proliferation of SmallSat launches among all government agencies worldwide. Furthermore, commercial organizations launched 2,013 of the 2,972 SmallSats over this 10-year period, providing numerous services for developers, as organizations operating the largest number of SmallSats. Planet owned 22 percent of all remote sensing SmallSats launched, while SpaceX owned 47 percent of all communications SmallSats during these years. Both

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¹ K. Kushida, 2021, A Strategic Overview of the Silicon Valley Ecosystem: Towards Effectively “Harnessing” Silicon Valley, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA.

² Within the context of this report, a spacecraft bus is an operational spacecraft system without a payload.

³ Bryce Space and Technology, 2021, SmallSats by the Numbers 2021, BryceTech, Alexandria, VA, 2021, http://brycetech.com/reports.

companies currently fly large constellations in low Earth orbit (LEO).⁴Table 2.2 in Chapter 2 provides a timeline of the commercial capability trends and a development forecast.

In recognition of these new advances, DoD established the Hybrid Space Architecture (HSA) as its leading philosophical framework for evaluating the balance between ingesting commercial systems, or procuring DoD unique systems. HSA is an integrative infrastructure that was first researched by the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) in 2014 and expanded through work done by the U.S. Space Force (USSF) and intelligence community stakeholders. The goal of this new approach is to move beyond traditional program stovepipes to enable individual government stakeholders to use the framework to achieve their unique needs. It is opening new possibilities for benefiting from the combination of traditional space with New Space by taking advantage of the synergies arising from a combined and integrated approach. As discussed in Chapter 3, HSA is a multi-layer system architecture offering the flexibility to integrate capabilities from multiple commercial and government systems to meet a variety of differing and constantly evolving government user needs. While still at an early stage, it has started delivering cost-effective and resilient space capabilities in support of a broad array of national security missions, including science and technology (S&T) and research and development (R&D) efforts. (Refer to Box 3.1 in Chapter 3 for specific definitions of S&T/R&D.)

HSA is predicated on an expansive utilization of New Space innovations, opening the door to potential scientific opportunities discussed in Chapter 4 and new business models discussed in Chapter 5. Government managers when enabled to align their acquisition approaches to this new framework would benefit from new partnerships between the U.S. government and the commercial sector. As SmallSat capabilities develop and HSA becomes more rooted, users will need to understand the strengths and weaknesses of SmallSat systems to determine their utility in specific missions, particularly for scientific objectives. For ocean science and coastal data missions, while the use of SmallSats to measure ocean variables is a real advantage for some applications—for example, short-term forecasting via data assimilation in ocean models—not all objectives may be achievable with SmallSats. Combining larger dedicated missions with SmallSat constellations is likely to be the best strategy to monitor the full range of processes occurring in the ocean. Chapter 4 outlines the specific strengths and weaknesses of SmallSats and provides guidance on their potential mission application.

Commercial space and technology providers would also benefit from new business models considering contracting arrangements, mutual responsibilities, and terms and conditions of partnerships, as well as the range and scope of services provided. At the same time, the current lack of integrated commercial services (capabilities that are packaged together to meet the needs of particular missions and contain interoperable components that facilitate greater adaptability between systems) impedes the use of government contracting vehicles to support mission development and operations processes. The private sector and the U.S. government could jointly encourage the integration of commercial services in order to facilitate a better alignment between government mission objectives and commercial capabilities within an acceptable and manageable risk posture.

To achieve a useful ecosystem, the government space acquisition and management cultures need to enable an environment where government managers are capable of reacting quickly and effectively to what will be a rapidly changing environment. In the experience of the study committee members, government managers have, in many cases, preferred greater control; they have been reluctant to risk their program and national security missions by depending on commercial resources or by quickly adapting to changing opportunities within an evolving ecosystem. In addition to discussing the potential risks and perceived challenges of the New Space paradigm, Chapter 5 identifies and discusses the risks associated with varied organizational practices, intellectual property rights, and contracting barriers that inhibit the full benefit that can be derived from the use of innovative commercial capabilities. It is important in the current environment that government managers consider not only technical performance of commercial providers but also the business viability risk. On the positive side, multiple commercial providers are emerging for most products and services, which allows for dual source options (e.g., multiple providers) to be considered in the commercial sourcing decision process.

Thus, to fully benefit from the New Space ecosystem, government agencies will need to develop acquisition and procurement practices and approaches that both enable and incentivize managers to partner with commercial

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⁴ Ibid.

services to gain maximum value for their program. There are also benefits to creating an environment that allows partnerships to develop, such as through connecting commercial and government stakeholders to intermediary agents who can broker such partnerships by matching a user’s needs to commercial provider capabilities. The outcome of such a brokered partnership would be a “win-win” contractual arrangement benefiting both the provider and user. Stakeholder tools, such as a managed repository of commercial services, could improve stakeholder alignment and accelerate an effective partnership process.

In such a dynamic and evolving environment, flexibility is key, because tools and methods will continue to adapt, grow, and evolve. For a PPP business arrangement to be successful and sustainable, it needs to have a contract that protects both parties and enables equitable mitigation options to be exercised to deal with changes in stakeholders’ interests. Chapter 5 discusses some adaptable PPP options for the near-term future that could include a complete space system solution or a menu of options depending on specific user needs. Example alternative models could include the deployment of commercial space component companies, which would provide different elements of the space system or, in some cases, a simple purchase of data. As will be discussed, all of these options are possible and supportable for both traditional and nontraditional stakeholders within the proposed HSA and New Space ecosystem.

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The following conclusions and recommendations are ordered as they appear in each chapter of the report.

Chapter 2: Conclusions and Recommendations

CONCLUSION: The commercial space industry’s tremendous growth and rapid evolution have generated high-profile successes, and signs indicate that this trend will continue to accelerate. The U.S. government, including traditional governmental space users, could benefit greatly from less traditional relationships, such as public–private partnerships that enable the adoption of industry’s technology and volume manufacturing capabilities.

RECOMMENDATION: The U.S. government should encourage the development of public–private partnerships, potentially including anchor tenancies, to promote a new national space ecosystem supportive of industry, government, and academic objectives.

CONCLUSION: Existing interoperability standards are primarily driven by traditional system constructs and impede the government’s access to flexible and adaptable commercial services. The U.S. government and commercial stakeholders will increasingly rely more heavily upon integrated commercial services and advancing standards to establish a broad-based ecosystem, enabling smoother transition paths among spacecraft development, payload integration, test, launch services, operations management, and data product production. Development and adoption of interoperability standards driven by unique commercial New Space needs and design practices for key systems will increase competition and enable efficient execution and management for a broad range of space mission and operational needs for current and future government users.

RECOMMENDATION: Key systems—those most appropriate for standards—should be jointly developed and actively managed to support the New Space public–private partnerships in ways that promote the greatest acceptance and usage on future systems. Standards and best practices could be developed within organizations such as the Air Force Research Laboratory’s AFWERX, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Small Spacecraft Systems Virtual Institute, and the Small Payload Rideshare Association to facilitate the adoption of New Space business product capabilities.

CONCLUSION: A coordinated government effort to promote and oversee existing government programs, together with the exploitation of dual-use technologies (evolving out of the automotive, medical, gaming, and other industries), could enhance the existing technology pipeline and benefit all national space activities. The Air

Force Research Laboratory’s AFWERX, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Small Spacecraft Technology Program, the government’s Small Business Innovative Research program, and the government’s Small Business Technology Transfer program are the appropriate venues for such technology infusion and demonstration.

RECOMMENDATION: The Office of Naval Research should take full advantage of opportunities for the infusion of dual-use technologies deriving from participation in existing government technology development programs such as the Air Force Research Laboratory’s AFWERX, the Small Spacecraft Technology Program, the government’s Small Business Innovative Research program, and the government’s Small Business Technology Transfer program.

CONCLUSION: The rapid expansion of space systems and operations knowledge throughout the commercial space industry provides numerous opportunities for the Hybrid Space Architecture and other U.S. government space initiatives. Clearly stated standards and best practices, in conjunction with procurement mechanisms that address and accelerate decision speed, address mission risk, and align incentives, would allow efficient U.S. government access to these new capabilities. Procurement mechanisms tailored to commercial business models could further support responsive schedules from initiative inception to on-orbit capability.

RECOMMENDATION: U.S. government procurement mechanisms should be tailored to embrace evolving commercial practices and appropriate standards to address and accelerate decision speed, management of mission risk, and alignment of incentives to rapidly enable government space initiatives.

Chapter 3: Conclusion and Recommendation

CONCLUSION: The Hybrid Space Architecture shows great potential as a framework for a new space ecosystem integrating timely, traditional, and New Space industries to deliver cost-effective and flexible space capabilities in support of a broad array of national missions and objectives. This ecosystem could enable the Office of Naval Research to pursue both its technology demonstration initiative and its long-term applications.

RECOMMENDATION: The Office of Naval Research (ONR) should consider the Hybrid Space Architecture framework as an opportunity to fulfill its long-term ocean science objectives. ONR should work with the U.S. Space Force to tailor its HSA-based approach to serve as a pilot program for other U.S. government and nongovernment users.⁵

Chapter 4: Conclusions and Recommendations

CONCLUSION: SmallSats are demonstrating their utility in national civil missions with respect to oceanography, meteorology, hydrology, disaster assessment, and other applications associated with the Earth sciences. When applicable, they complement traditional systems in the Hybrid Space Architecture by offering increased temporal and spatial resolution and reduced planning cycles, which permit rapid insertion of new technology over traditional approaches. It is expected that SmallSat technology and sensor capabilities, as well as related services, will expand in the future.

RECOMMENDATION: The U.S. government should actively position itself to take full advantage of the evolving and growing capabilities of the commercial space sector to serve the broadest spectrum of traditional and nontraditional users, with applications to oceanographic and coastal data as an initial effort to experiment with new process and procedures.

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⁵ This recommendation was edited after release to the sponsor to direct it to ONR rather than the broader National Oceanographic Partnership Program. This clarifies that the recommendation is aimed at enabling ONR’s long-term ocean science objectives.

CONCLUSION: SmallSat mission partnerships between the U.S. government and academic institutions have produced high-value/low-cost advancements in space science and technology, including satellite platforms and payloads, ground segment communications, mission and payload operations, and science data product generation and distribution.

RECOMMENDATION: As part of its ongoing relationship with academic institutions, the Office of Naval Research should examine emerging advanced sensor and associated technology opportunities that benefit future ocean science objectives and missions.⁶

Chapter 5: Conclusions and Recommendations

CONCLUSION: The technical infrastructure required to support needed services in the New Space ecosystem currently exists or is expected to come into existence if actively enabled through expanding government procurement opportunities. However, the U.S. government space community’s current and potential future exploitation of that infrastructure is impeded by lack of familiarity with existing technical capabilities as well as new capabilities evolving out of the rapid growth of the commercial space industry. In the case of the Office of Naval Research, space science procurement practices are artificially constrained by traditional approaches in ways that limit them from taking full advantage of available New Space opportunities related to the rapid demonstration of the ocean and coastal sensor technologies under development for the National Oceanographic Partnership Program.

RECOMMENDATION: The Office of Naval Research together with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, as the joint managers of the National Oceanographic Partnership Program (NOPP), should explore the broad range of available contractual mechanisms that enable quicker deployment of commercial space capabilities in pursuit of the NOPP technology demonstration objectives. It should empower its acquisition workforce to take full advantage of the rapidly evolving commercial space system opportunities.

CONCLUSION: The federal procurement regime—both the statutory and regulatory schemes—provides sufficient flexibility to take advantage of the evolving commercial marketplace and employ innovative approaches such as public–private partnerships (PPPs) and other forms of contractual relationships including Other Transactions Authority (OTA) and Space Enterprise Consortium (SPEC).

RECOMMENDATION: The U.S. government should employ a full range of available contractual mechanisms and actively support the use of innovative business models required to fully engage with both the traditional space and New Space commercial industries. These include a range of options from public–private partnerships and commercial services contracts, as well as newer mid-tier acquisition options in the categories of rapid prototyping and rapid fielding.

CONCLUSION: Currently, no existing mechanism permits forecasting future government needs to proactively inform the commercial space sector such that it can focus and prioritize the direction of its future investments. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Rapid Spacecraft Development Office has addressed this forecasting problem related to indefinite delivery/indefinite quantity satellite bus acquisitions through the development of its Rapid Spacecraft Catalog satellite catalog.

RECOMMENDATION: The Office of Naval Research should leverage the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Rapid Spacecraft Catalog for its current needs and should also work with NASA’s Rapid Spacecraft Development Office and the Air Force Research Laboratory’s AFWERX to incorporate its forecasted future needs.

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⁶ This recommendation was edited after release to the sponsor to delete reference to the National Oceanographic Partnership Program. This clarifies that the committee is recommending that ONR take this step in support of its own objectives and missions.

CONCLUSION: The development and adoption of the Hybrid Space Architecture (HSA) framework offers a potential roadmap to establish the timeline of SmallSat system capabilities for national needs. However, the capacity for building SmallSat services can be accelerated by the alignment of commercial SmallSat capabilities to HSA needs—this would reduce the time needed to reach a fully capable space ecosystem. Similarly, market-driven forces and sustained government investment programs could also accelerate technology, infrastructure, and process support responsive to customer and community needs and requirements.

RECOMMENDATION: The U.S. government should incentivize private investment to achieve faster and more integrated outcomes through advanced acquisition strategies such as public–private partnerships, establishing Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity contracts with commercial providers, and anchor tenancy where the government is a stable facilitator for achieving faster and more integrated outcomes.

CONCLUSION: The commercial space sector appears fully capable of meeting the ocean sensor technology demonstration flight and launch needs of the National Oceanographic Partnership Program (NOPP) as presented to the committee. Many of these capabilities are accessible to NOPP today, through a variety of contractual mechanisms. Furthermore, these capabilities are expected to grow and evolve in concert with Hybrid Space Architecture–driven U.S. Space Force and other government procurements over the next 5 years, keeping pace with the NOPP objectives.

RECOMMENDATION: Innovative procurement practices offer substantial benefits, both in cost and the pace of flight, to meet government, and specifically, National Oceanographic Partnership Program (NOPP) requirements. Depending on technology readiness and mission requirements, NOPP should consider the following options:

1. Engage nascent commercial broker capabilities to explore and form appropriate partnerships to match existing and emerging commercial capabilities to achieve desired technical outcomes;
2. Explore existing government programs and consortiums, such as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration International Space Station or the Space Enterprise Consortium, and other programs that support technology prototyping and rideshare opportunities consistent with desired space flight objectives;
3. Engage a Federally Funded Research and Development Center (FFRDC) or a similar impartial agent as a trusted intermediary between interested government and commercial business entities to identify appropriate public–private partnership mechanisms and structure them to achieve a successful alignment of technical and procurement capabilities; and
4. Similarly employ an FFRDC or similarly trusted agent to develop guidelines for technical and business engagement to actively bridge existing gaps and new gaps as they occur between government and industry.