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Suggested Citation:"3 Advances in Asset Monitoring." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
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3

Advances in Asset Monitoring

Haydn Wadley, University of Virginia, and Angus Kingon, Brown University, welcomed participants to the second day of the workshop, which focused on asset monitoring and supply chain issues. Military systems—particularly electronic systems—are complex and vulnerable to degradation in extreme operating environments, yet it is often infeasible to repair individual components of these systems at forward operating bases or under threat conditions. This makes it important for system failures and service needs to be predictable, especially in the context of mission-critical systems in remote or adversarial conditions. Promptly and effectively addressing failures requires optimization across the full supply chain. This workshop session examined the role of sensing technologies and innovations in supply chain management in addressing these needs, while drawing lessons from industries such as aerospace, the automotive industry, and e-commerce.

Kingon introduced the first set of speakers, Brant Simmons of General Electric (GE) Aviation and Gary W. Rogers of Roush Industries, who focused on lessons from the aviation and automotive industries, respectively. Dave Aspnes, North Carolina State University, moderated a brief discussion following each presentation.

Suggested Citation:"3 Advances in Asset Monitoring." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×

REFLECTIONS ON JET TURBINE ENGINES: LIFETIME PREDICTION AND ASSET AVAILABILITY

Brant Simmons, GE Aviation

Commercial jet turbine engines are expected to be durable and reliable for decades, with a single engine often lasting two decades while often going through 15,000 take-off and landing cycles or 30,000 hours before coming offline for servicing. Given that many planes in use today are based on designs more than 50 years old and involve many complex parts and materials, replacement parts are often expensive to manufacture and require a long lead time.

To anticipate maintenance needs, Simmons described how using digital twins to predict engine part replacement times can not only dramatically improve performance, availability, and customer satisfaction, but also reduce engine failure and wasted time and expense by identifying whether an engine will accumulate damage quickly or can stay in service. Digital twins can also be used for routine in-flight monitoring.

A digital twin is a simplified model of the entire engine design that can uncover performance issues and predict maintenance needs with greater accuracy than conventional methods that focus on estimating “average” engine performance and wear. Digital twins have to be somewhat simplified because it is not feasible to test every point on these complex, computationally intense designs. However, testing too few points is also problematic. For example, studying only the maximum-load condition ignores variation typical during flights and does not correlate to customer experience.

Digital twins incorporate accurate operation, configuration, and environmental data from the full distribution of fleet variation, including subfleet performance and operator styles, along with domain expertise from data science, analytics, and artificial intelligence. Outliers are used to update the models, improving accuracy and increasing customer confidence in the predicted maintenance schedule.

Discussion

In response to a question about the data that feeds into digital twin models, Simmons stated that apart from the older engines, GE can collect and connect most of the engine, flight, and weather data needed to create digital twins, but more sensors, such as temperature sensors in particular parts of the engine, would be helpful. In reply to a question from Aspnes, he noted that there is not a great deal of customization of individual engines, but reiterated that data on the specific operational and environmental conditions of an aircraft is critical in order to optimize the utility of the digital twin.

Suggested Citation:"3 Advances in Asset Monitoring." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×

Wadley asked if the digital twin model could be extended to military fleets, which are smaller and flown very differently and in very different environments from commercial aircraft. Simmons speculated that the approach would likely work well, even for small fleets, as long as the operational and environmental data were accurate and accessible. In fact, GE has recertified commercial engines for military use and has customers using these engines in salty or dusty environments.

With regard to the level of confidence in digital twins, Simmons said that customers are seeking insights that are more useful than universal maintenance deadlines. To address this need and help overcome initial skepticism, GE pilot-tested its digital twin program. After seeing the accuracy of the distress predictions, and as GE has continuously adapted and improved the model, he said that most customers have now become comfortable with digital twins.

ADVANCES IN SYSTEM MONITORING: LESSONS FROM THE AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY

Gary W. Rogers, Roush Industries

Rogers discussed how Roush Industries is approaching the increasing need for testing, monitoring, and assessing performance in commercially available automobiles and existing and future military vehicles.

At the heart of today’s cars are highly complex and intricate networks of processing systems and sensors. The rising complexity of these systems has driven a fourfold rise in recalls over two decades and increased warranty costs to an estimated $40 billion annually in claims paid. To help automotive companies reduce these costs, Roush is developing real-world use cases that can be applied to billions of potential driving scenarios to predict potential failure modes for electronic hardware and software. However, even with these extensive models, there are still complex problems to address, leading to an increased emphasis on remote, real-time monitoring and assessments for predictive part performance to mitigate recalls.

In the military, next-generation ground combat systems are seeing a similarly dramatic increase in complexity. To achieve the U.S. Army’s vision of a multi-domain, connected battlespace where data are shared between satellites, drones, ground vehicles, soldiers, and ships will require sophisticated electronics and detailed systems integration. Both manned and unmanned combat vehicles are being fitted with advanced sensor, vision, image, targeting, and threat-detection systems, which together accumulate terabytes of data.

Key challenges to creating autonomous ground combat vehicles include reducing data latency, integrating multiple threat detection systems, understanding space and crew size constraints, working in extreme temperatures, and handling attacks or systems failures. In addition, Rogers said that testing and maintaining

Suggested Citation:"3 Advances in Asset Monitoring." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
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these systems will require crew training as well as constant, detailed monitoring to diagnose and address problems, especially for maintaining reliable mission-critical functions.

Roush is addressing these challenges by creating a high-speed backplane for data, designing modular components, making software self-healing, and offloading crew work via artificial intelligence (AI) or machine learning (ML) algorithms. In addition, Rogers pointed to a need for faster and lighter-weight data processing systems, heat dissipation, better shock and vibration systems, a modular open network architecture, and an agile software development cycle.

Because the U.S. Army has a much smaller sample size in terms of vehicle volumes, Rogers cautioned that not all aspects of the commercial automotive experience with new and emerging technologies will be applicable in the military context. However, he speculated that as electronics increase within Army vehicles, the military will likely see many of the same issues with costs, safety, systems integration, and the need for constant updates that have been encountered in the commercial automotive sphere.

Discussion

Asked how these lessons may apply to optionally manned combat vehicles, Rogers noted that teleoperated robotic systems primarily sense information and have limited weapons capabilities. Some tank turrets can be remotely operated, freeing up design space and crew tasks, although more data functionality and bandwidth will be required for the seamless onboard computing and communication capabilities desired for next-generation combat vehicles.

Transitioning into the next session on supply issues and opportunities, Kingon introduced Craig Gravitz, Defense Logistics Agency (DLA); Robert Handfield, North Carolina State University; and Nancy Stoffel, GE Research. Aspnes moderated a brief discussion after each presentation.

CURRENT STATUS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR INNOVATION

Craig Gravitz, DLA

DLA is the U.S. Department of Defense’s (DoD’s) largest non-weapons system supplier, handling items such as food, medicine, spare parts, energy needs, and a variety of other materials. DLA operates similarly to a private-sector firm, reliant on working capital and customer satisfaction, took in more than $40 billion in revenue last year, and has 26,000 global employees.

Gravitz leads the Technology Accelerator team within DLA research and development (R&D). He described his team’s human-centered, lean innovation design

Suggested Citation:"3 Advances in Asset Monitoring." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×

approach to combine desirability, viability, and feasibility when solving problems to address end user needs. First, they source, develop, and refine a problem. Then they identify the target and conduct stakeholder interviews until they are ready to build, test, and validate a prototype; and last, they scale it up.

Examples of DLA’s innovations include sensors to maintain warehouse equipment and processes enabled by automation and robotics. In response to supply chain issues, DLA also developed a novel N95 respirator design. Recognizing the need for a domestic supply base, DLA found a local company able to manufacture them, but encountered cumbersome approval procedures that made it difficult to gain approval for the novel design despite the huge demand.

To move quickly and reap benefits from innovation, Gravitz said that it is important to circumvent attitudes, systems, and procedures that frequently form barriers to innovation. For example, there is often bias toward the status quo, even from those reporting problems. Innovation also comes with intense resource scrutiny and some personal risk. End users—often the beneficiaries of innovation—are frequently at the bottom of an organization and feel powerless to enact change. Funding challenges, overused jargon, and empty buzzwords can also create resistance to new ideas, he said.

Discussion

During the discussion, Gravitz noted that cybersecurity is an important consideration and his team must regularly coordinate with DLA’s cyber leads in order to launch new capabilities. He cautioned that some DoD policies have not caught up to some product families. This gap prevents DoD from harnessing some of the latest products.

In response to another question, Gravitz said that DLA conducts quality control tests and is looking into digital twins to speed up the process. In order to circumvent cumbersome rules for commercial software, he said the organization performs data sensitivity checks in multiple cloud environments to minimize security risks.

THE NEW RULES OF SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT: THE LIVING SUPPLY CHAIN

Robert Handfield, North Carolina State University

Handfield discussed a framework for supply chain design and management he calls the LIVING (Live, Interactive, Velocity, Intelligent, Networked, and Good) supply chain. In a LIVING supply chain, data are live and interactive, enabling real-time monitoring of curated data, event validation, and informed decision-making.

Suggested Citation:"3 Advances in Asset Monitoring." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×

Having the right data at hand improves velocity, which lowers costs and improves delivery time, customer satisfaction, revenue, growth, and asset transparency. The supply chain is intelligent, equipped with cloud, mobile, and automation tools for predictive maintenance and decision-making. It is networked, making it possible to share multi-enterprise, multi-functional data, and it is good, meaning that data availability creates transparency and accountability.

The idea for the LIVING supply chain was inspired in part by the “pulse center” of Flex, one of the world’s largest contract manufacturing firms.1 All of Flex’s global, multi-enterprise, end-to-end supply chain data are visualized on the pulse center’s touchscreen walls and accessible via mobile devices for seamless virtual collaboration. To build the pulse center, Flex first carefully defined what data to collect, conducted proper data governance, created a trusted data repository, and then used trusted application programming interfaces (APIs) to create the visualizations. Handfield said that ensuring data validation, quality, and governance was the hardest challenge, but doing so enables the data to be used effectively and customized to an employee’s role, and also creates data accountability if problems arise. Handfield added that the company makes it a priority for every employee to have access to the data their role requires, the power to raise issues, and the tools and autonomy to address them.

In addition to data velocity, real-time data visibility is becoming increasingly important, Handfield said, especially after critical domestic shortages during COVID-19. Paired with increased velocity from a more local supply chain, data visibility enabled Flex to remove 5 days, or $3.5 billion, of inventory from their supply chain (which previously held 55 days of inventory), increasing their working capital and improving end-to-end management. Visibility also enables faster decision-making, Handfield noted, as General Stanley McChrystal showed with his strategy to streamline data sharing to enhance decision-making during the Iraq war.2

The LIVING supply chain can illuminate innovative ways to optimize inventory, even during major disruptions like COVID-19, Handfield said. It also represents a democratization of data, where, with appropriate governance and quality, the right people have access to the right data and can create agile solutions. However, he stressed that only data that is logically arranged, integrated, and made accessible can be actionable.

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1 R. Handfield and T. Linton, 2017, The LIVING Supply Chain, Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.

2 S.G. McChrystal, T. Collins, D. Silverman, and C. Fussell, 2015, Team of Teams: New Rules of Engagement for a Complex World, New York: Portfolio.

Suggested Citation:"3 Advances in Asset Monitoring." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×

Discussion

When asked how the LIVING supply chain model addresses just-in-time supply chain systems, Handfield replied that the framework takes delivery speed, supplier location, and potential disruptions into account. However, he cautioned that relying on weeks-long global shipping is not “just-in-time.” Having experienced COVID-19 disruptions, he said that companies are now rethinking inventory and supplier location for critical technologies.

Aspnes asked about concerns over technology leaks. Handfield replied that this is a risk, and supplier cybersecurity is a crucial line of defense. While technological tools can help, he added that workforce measures and employee training, especially with increased remote work, are also critical.

FLEXIBLE HYBRID ELECTRONICS:
OPPORTUNITIES IN SENSING, MONITORING, AND COMMUNICATIONS

Nancy Stoffel, GE Research

Stoffel discussed military and manufacturing applications of flexible hybrid electronics (FHE), which integrates novel materials, flexible forms, and additive technologies to increase efficiency and reduce environmental footprint. Fabrication of these electronics is relatively simple and highly customizable, with multiple options for novel materials and form factors, making them a viable option for resupply in remote areas or battlefields.

FHE technology can be adapted to a wide range of purposes. For example, FHE devices can be fitted to a human body to measure biometrics, or to an airplane engine for enhanced on-asset sensing, data processing, and communication. In a factory, FHE devices can enhance production, operation, inspection, repair, inventory control, analytics, and worker safety and productivity. Stoffel presented an example application in wind turbine manufacturing, where FHE sensors were used to optimize blade curing, enhance throughput, and maintain quality.

In the field, FHE sensors in power turbine engines can determine when maintenance is needed, measure torque, and monitor strain in extremely high temperature and harsh environments, such as hot engines.3 FHE devices can also be used in soft robotics that investigate and repair delicate systems, Stoffel said.

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3 R.A. Potyrailo, I. Tokarev, S. Go, P. Ottikkuti, N. Kuzhiyil, J. Mihok, C. Anzini, and S. Shartzer, 2019, Multivariable electrical resonant sensors for independent quantitation of aging and external contaminants in lubricating oils, IEEE Sensors Journal 19(4):1542–1553, https://doi.org/10.1109/jsen.2018.2880156.

Suggested Citation:"3 Advances in Asset Monitoring." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×

Discussion

A participant asked if FHE sensors were vulnerable to weather or electromagnetic pulses. Stoffel replied that while the sensors in the wind turbines are robust because they are passive, wireless, and encapsulated, a direct lightning strike could cause damage, although the blade is designed to minimize it.

When asked about cost, Stoffel answered that despite the up-front costs of new technology, many of these applications would reduce long-term costs because they simplify manufacturing. She also clarified that the use of FHE is not an attempt to re-create semiconductor technology, but rather to design a low-volume integration method or package to widen their applications. In addition, the growing FHE supply chain is much more U.S.-based than the semiconductor supply chain. For power electronics, GE is looking at the use of silicon carbide that is designed for high temperature and high power, and using FHE methods to customize the integration.

Stoffel noted that there are challenges with the power handling capabilities of direct writing interconnections owing to the reduced conductivity relative to plated metal. One approach to compensate is to apply a higher volume of material (thicker or wider). Newer inks, such as metal oxide solutions, are less porous, and are approaching the full conductivity of general metal. In addition, she said that researchers are studying whether adding graphene to inks can improve conductivity.

For the day’s final panel discussion of innovations and opportunities in asset monitoring and supply, Aspnes introduced Mike Maloney, Pratt and Whitney (retired); Geoff Joseph, Roush Industries; Walter Yund, GE; and Eric Forsythe, U.S. Army Combat Capabilities Development Command and NextFlex. Kingon moderated a discussion following panelists’ opening remarks.

CASE STUDY: LESSONS FROM GAS TURBINE JET ENGINE MONITORING AND MAINTENANCE

Mike Maloney, Pratt and Whitney (retired)

Maloney discussed research into environmental degradation of jet engine components and how the establishment of viable digital twins could help prevent catastrophic engine failure, emergency inspections, and the unnecessary retirement of planes from service.4

Engine ingestion of corrosive gases and fine particulate matter can result in sulfate-induced hot corrosion and deposit induced distress, necessitating the

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4 P. Wolfsteller, 2021, NTSB Says United Engine Failure Caused by Metal Fatigue, Flight Global News, February 22, https://www.flightglobal.com/safety/ntsb-says-united-engine-failure-caused-bymetal-fatigue/142556.article.

Suggested Citation:"3 Advances in Asset Monitoring." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×

application of protective coatings to engine components.5,6,7,8 Environmental degradation will be accelerated with aircraft operating in regions with poor air quality and in marine environments. Much research needs to be done to understand these effects, a gap that Maloney attributed to a decline in U.S. funding and research in this area.9,10 Maloney said that existing coatings do not fully protect against ingested air matter, although gadolinium-stabilized zirconia ceramic, a newer coating developed in conjunction with the Office of Naval Research, offers better protection. Because it is much easier to reapply coating than overhaul the entire blade, newer coatings could offer promising opportunities to extend the lives of existing components, he noted.11,12

Environmental causes of engine failure—oxidation, corrosion, and ingested metal causing distress—could be modeled and monitored with a digital twin if the right data, such as temperature, change rate, and thermal transience, can be collected via sensors. That data can then be used to create physics-based life models to determine precisely when an engine needs to be serviced. To further improve the use of digital twins, Maloney said that research on key gaps, especially sensor technology for real-time data of the asset and its operating environment and the creation of physics-based life models, is under way.13

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5 S. Manning Meier, D.M. Nissley, and K.D. Sheffler, 1990, Status of ceramic thermal barrier coatings—gas turbine applications and life prediction method, Proceedings of the 1990 Coatings for Advanced Heat Engines Workshop, Castine, Maine, U.S., II-57-65.

6 “Improvement in Airfoil Durability with the Electron Beam Physical Vapor Deposition (EB-PVD) Coating Manufacturing Process,” 1992, presented at the 1992 International Gas Turbine and Aeroengine Congress and Exposition, Cologne, Germany.

7 W.S. Walsh, K.A. Thole, and C. Joe, 2006, “Effects of Sand Ingestion on the Blockage of Film-Cooling Holes,” Volume 3: Heat Transfer, Parts A and B, https://doi.org/10.1115/gt2006-90067.

8 C.G. Levi, J.W. Hutchinson, M.H. Vidal-Sétif, and C.A. Johnson, 2012, Environmental degradation of thermal-barrier coatings by molten deposits, MRS Bulletin 37(10):932–941, https://doi.org/10.1557/mrs.2012.230.

9 Euravia, 2017, “What Is Sulphidation?” Latest News, October 20, https://www.euravia.aero/news/what-is-sulphidation?locale=en.

10 B. Gleeson, University of Pittsburgh, 2018, “20-Year History of Gordon Research Conferences on High Temperature Corrosion,” presentation to the Committee on Advanced Technologies for Gas Turbines, December 17, Washington, DC: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.

11 “Increased Resistance to Particulate Matter-Induced Distress by Ceramic Composition Substitution,” April 26, 2005, Turbine Forum 2006, Nice Port St. Laurent, France.

12 D.L. Poerschke, R.W. Jackson, and C.G. Levi, 2017, Silicate deposit degradation of engineered coatings in gas turbines: Progress toward models and materials solutions, Annual Review of Materials Research 47(1):297–330, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-matsci-010917-105000.

13 National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2020, Advanced Technologies for Gas Turbines, Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

Suggested Citation:"3 Advances in Asset Monitoring." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×

APPLYING LESSONS FROM AUTOMOBILE VEHICLE MONITORING TO THE DEFENSE INDUSTRY

Geoff Joseph, Roush Industries

Like the automotive industry, the U.S. Army is increasingly adding software-based systems to remote-controlled and optionally manned vehicles. Joseph discussed considerations for these efforts given the unique attributes of military vehicles—such as space constraints, computing challenges, and long lifespans—that can make it challenging to retrofit them with new technology.

To address space constraints, Joseph said that vehicles are being designed with more inclusive architecture and smaller parts that consume less power and dissipate heat better, but can also power the necessary safety- and mission-critical systems. A universal systems controller can also free up space, but needs to be fixable or replaceable if damaged, he noted.

Computing, on the other hand, poses a much more difficult problem. Within the vehicles, electronics and cabling have to be stabilized and buffered from shock, heat, and vibrations during transit or attack. On the outside, feedback from multiple sensors has to be quickly processed and transmitted to be actionable, requiring closely located computers. It is unclear if the automotive industry’s over-the-air software updates will work for multiple networked software systems. Several different architecture designs are under study to address these issues, and will require a thorough understanding of existing and new technology, Joseph said.

SUPPLY RELIABILITY ANALYTICS

Walter Yund, GE

Variability in third-party suppliers’ lead times creates a significant area of mistrust for global supply chain managers, especially if the provider is offshore or the part requires bespoke engineering. Yund described how GE is creating a program to go beyond asset and inventory visibility and into predictive analytics of inbound lead time in order to improve lead time variability, assembly time, customer satisfaction, and overall supply chain reliability.

The team created an ML algorithm from enterprise resource planning data that predicted order completion times with 30–50 percent greater accuracy than supplier estimates. The combination of enterprise resource planning data and transformational ML techniques captured the stochasticity of supplier performance, improved customer service, and infused intelligence and trust into supply chains, Yund said.

Suggested Citation:"3 Advances in Asset Monitoring." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×

DOD INVESTMENT IN HYBRID ELECTRONICS INDUSTRIAL BASE

Eric Forsythe, U.S. Army Combat Capabilities Development Command and NextFlex

Forsythe discussed efforts by NextFlex, one of nine DoD (16 total) Manufacturing USA Institutes that addresses critical industry and military gaps through innovation, to advance hybrid electronics. These lightweight, novel, form-flexible circuits offer new capabilities and wide applications, with the potential to advance the electronics assembly manufacturing ecosystem and address DoD requirements.

NextFlex innovates in electronics assembly with opportunities to leverage hybrid electronics for unique advanced electronic packages. The NextFlex institute must work with electronic foundries to secure wafers and die. Forsythe said that incorporating hybrid electronics in electronic assembly and advanced packaging can address multiple needs with new, low-cost capabilities that do not require expensive interconnected fabricators. Hybrid electronics manufacturing processes offer the potential to integrate multiple thin, bare die, passives, and sensors in a package that is easier than traditional wafer-level packaging for unique low-volume applications. In general, hybrid electronics will not meet high-density interconnects enabled by wafer-level processing, Forsythe noted.

GENERAL DISCUSSION

The participants discussed opportunities afforded by digital twins and other tools, possibilities for expansion and reshoring of advanced manufacturing, and workforce needs in this space.

Digital Twins and Other Tools

Participants discussed the applicability of digital twins in the context of the military, whose fleets are much smaller and operate in much more varied environments than commercial vehicles and aircraft. Maloney said that sensors should provide enough environmental data, and noted that commercial and military engines run equally hot. Simmons agreed, adding that the data must be combined with an understanding of materials and physics-based failure modes and then incorporated into statistical analyses to create a useful prediction benchmark.

Kingon argued that because the mechanics or failure modes for smaller components have not been studied as extensively as larger components (and their data may not be accessible), physics-based modeling is not possible for every component. Simmons agreed that the desired data are not always available, but suggested that reduced-order models without predictive capabilities can still offer

Suggested Citation:"3 Advances in Asset Monitoring." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×

some performance insights. However, if the failure mode is not well understood, such a model will not work. In addition, Simmons stressed that adding sensors has trade-offs because they are expensive and have to be durable, validated, certified, and trusted.

Eric Ducharme, GE, agreed that making predictions without a basic understanding of physics and failure modes or adequate asset monitoring is unwise. He also noted that creating an actionable data flow is very difficult, given the military’s security needs. Internal capabilities would be needed to collect, process, and analyze all the data required and incorporate it into physics-based failure mode models. Some external companies already perform elements of this, and he suggested more could be done. Simmons agreed that data ownership, sharing, and security are large hurdles for the military.

Rogers expressed confidence that there are enough data to create a reliable digital twin for military vehicles, even if data are incomplete for some aspects. John Koszewnik, Achates Power, added that the automotive industry has the right computer-aided engineering models, but that digital twins also have to take into account materials, environment, and manufacturing variabilities to be useful. Simmons suggested that every input should be used as a distribution, rather than a single data point, for the digital twin.

Ducharme stated that a digital twin of an entire supply chain would be a very powerful tool, especially for simulating disruptions. Kingon asked about the data security implications of a supply chain digital twin, and Handfield replied that real-time data shared across the supply chain is imperative for accuracy, but companies are still reticent to share that level of information because of security worries.

Participants also discussed standardization in supply chains. Rogers responded that standardization is important but underscored that military and industry standards are not interchangeable. Standards usually are developed by a large consortium of manufacturers and users, where cost is important, but the military is focused less on reducing costs and more on gaining capabilities, he noted. Kingon argued that standards should come from industry, who need cost and supply chain advantages for adopting them.

Expansion and Reshoring of Advanced Manufacturing

When asked about NextFlex’s expansion plans, Forsythe replied that the organization’s next steps are to focus on reliability and performance with known good manufacturing processes that will lead to commercial and DoD standards. These next steps will potentially use digital twins and design software to facilitate domestic manufacturing. The domestic manufacturing, robust reliability testing, and digital twin design software will accelerate reshoring electronic assembly and packaging manufacturing using hybrid processes. Domestic manufacturing will

Suggested Citation:"3 Advances in Asset Monitoring." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×

support technologies such as medical devices and DoD applications, as well other products that are not high-volume commodities. Enabling these domestic manufacturing capabilities, he noted, will depend on valuable industry partnerships.

Handfield asked specifically about reshoring more advanced semiconductor manufacturing, and Forsythe answered that while it would be a lengthy process, Manufacturing USA Institutes like NextFlex can help to establish a fully domestic supply chain. Handfield responded that reshoring critical technologies would improve supply chain diversification, but suggested that it may take a variety of incentives to induce Asian-owned businesses to relocate. Forsythe expressed his view that what is needed is not new billion-dollar factories, but a robust, co-located supply chain that could be competitive with offshore manufacturers, such as multiple micro-fabrication spots that run continuously.

Asked how the United States can reshore hybrid electronics and manufacturing capabilities, Stoffel said that the process is already starting, with a few U.S. fabricators now open. She speculated that the increasing interest in building combined technology parts and establishing a domestic inventory will enable customization, lower costs, and faster delivery times.

Workforce Needs

Andrea Hodge, University of Southern California, asked about needs related to educating the workforce to advance and adopt these new technologies. Forsythe said that creating a talent pool to utilize emerging technologies is a multi-pronged, multi-disciplinary, coordinated focus of the Manufacturing USA Institutes and is also of extremely high importance to industry. NextFlex aspires to elevate its profile by casting a wide net across all K–12 students, not just those who are already interested in engineering.

Stoffel agreed that wider awareness of these fields as potential careers was important, and asked whether other panelists saw a lack of mentorship and mid-level staff in these areas. Maloney replied that even before COVID-19, the high-temperature materials industry faced challenges attracting workers, and mentorship and funding were on the decline. Now, he said, there are very few groups studying hot corrosion. Some companies still fund conferences and host student interns, but he argued that government support for this research is critical.

Kingon agreed that more funding for this area was needed, especially as understanding the links between materials, performance, and failure mechanisms is so critical, and the concept of digital twins relies on good data collection and fundamental physics models. Maloney concurred, and Simmons reiterated how crucial it is to understand materials and failure modes.

Suggested Citation:"3 Advances in Asset Monitoring." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×
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Suggested Citation:"3 Advances in Asset Monitoring." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×
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Suggested Citation:"3 Advances in Asset Monitoring." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×
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Suggested Citation:"3 Advances in Asset Monitoring." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×
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Suggested Citation:"3 Advances in Asset Monitoring." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×
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Suggested Citation:"3 Advances in Asset Monitoring." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×
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Suggested Citation:"3 Advances in Asset Monitoring." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
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Suggested Citation:"3 Advances in Asset Monitoring." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
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Page 29
Suggested Citation:"3 Advances in Asset Monitoring." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×
Page 30
Suggested Citation:"3 Advances in Asset Monitoring." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×
Page 31
Suggested Citation:"3 Advances in Asset Monitoring." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×
Page 32
Suggested Citation:"3 Advances in Asset Monitoring." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×
Page 33
Suggested Citation:"3 Advances in Asset Monitoring." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×
Page 34
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Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop Get This Book
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 Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop
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The ability to deploy and maintain infrastructure and equipment is crucial to military operations and national security. However, the ability to make and repair equipment in a wide range of operational environments is increasingly vulnerable to disruptions in global supply chains and to attacks. Emerging technologies and innovations offer exciting new opportunities to create structures remotely using a broad range of materials, as well as new capabilities for repair and operational support to sustain assets in the long term.

To examine these issues and reveal areas of opportunity for military applications and the U.S. Department of Defense, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine hosted the Workshop on Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack on June 2-4, 2021. The virtual event brought together speakers and attendees representing materials science, engineering, logistics, and manufacturing experts from industry, academia, and government agencies. The event was organized around three main topics: additive manufacturing of large structures, critical systems supply and repair, and supply and manufacturing in space. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussion of the workshop.

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