National Academies Press: OpenBook
Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×

GOALS Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate

A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis

Climate Research Committee

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1994

Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.

This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.

This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. ATM-9316824. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.

Library of Congress Catalog Card No. 94-67804

International Standard Book Number 0-309-05180-0

Additional copies of this report are available from
National Academy Press
2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 800-624-6242 202-334-3313 (in the Washington Metropolitan Area)

B-485

Copyright 1994 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Printed in the United States of America

Cover: Reproduction of an oil painting titled J's Landscape by Edith Paipert Namias. The artist studied at the Corcoran School of Art and the American University. Exhibitions of her work have appeared in the Smithsonian, the Corcoran Biennial Exhibit, the Baltimore Museum, the University of Virginia, the George Washington University, and the National Collection of Paintings, among many others. She is represented in several collections, including those of the Argentine Embassy and the Watkins Gallery of American University. Edith and her husband Jerry, an internationally recognized pioneer in the study of climate variability, reside in La Jolla, California.

Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×

CLIMATE RESEARCH COMMITTEE

ERIC J. BARRON (Chair),

Pennsylvania State University, University Park

DAVID S. BATTISTI,

University of Washington, Seattle

BYRON A. BOVILLE*,

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

KIRK BRYAN*,

NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey

GEORGE F. CARRIER*,

Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts

ROBERT D. CESS*,

State University of New York, Stony Brook

RUSS E. DAVIS,

Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California

MELINDA M. HALL,

Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts

THOMAS R. KARL,

National Climatic Data Center. Asheville, North Carolina

JEFFREY T. KIEHL,

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

DOUGLAS G. MARTINSON*,

Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York

CLAIRE L. PARKINSON,

National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Greenbelt, Maryland

BARRY SALTZMAN,

Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut

RICHARD P. TURCO,

University of California, Los Angeles

Ex Officio Members

EDWARD S. SARACHIK,

University of Washington, Seattle

SOROOSH SOROOSHIAN,

University of Arizona, Tucson

PETER J. WEBSTER,

University of Colorado, Boulder

Staff

WILLIAM A. SPRIGG, Director

KENT L. GRONINGER, Senior Program Officer

MARK D. HANDEL, Senior Program Officer

DORIS E. BOUADJEMI, Administrative Assistant

THERESA M. FISHER, Administrative Assistant

*  

Denotes past members who were active during the preparation of this report.

Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×

BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE

JOHN A. DUTTON (Chair),

Pennsylvania State University, University Park

CRAIG E. DORMAN, Consultant,

Arlington, Virginia

MICHAEL FOX-RABINOVITZ,

Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland

PETER V. HOBBS,

University of Washington, Seattle

WITOLD F. KRAJEWSKI,

The University of Iowa, Iowa City

MARGARET A. LeMONE,

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

DOUGLAS K. LILLY,

University of Oklahoma, Norman

RICHARD S. LINDZEN,

Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge

GERALD R. NORTH,

Texas A&M University, College Station

EUGENE M. RASMUSSON,

University of Maryland, College Park

ROBERT J. SERAFIN,

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

Ex Officio Members

ERIC J. BARRON,

Pennsylvania State University, University Park

WILLIAM L. CHAMEIDES,

Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta

MARVIN A. GELLER,

State University of New York, Stony Brook

Staff

WILLIAM A. SPRIGG, Director

KENT L. GRONINGER, Senior Program Officer

MARK D. HANDEL, Senior Program Officer

DAVID H. SLADE, Senior Program Officer

DORIS E. BOUADJEMI, Administrative Assistant

THERESA M. FISHER, Administrative Assistant

ELLEN F. RICE, Editor

Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×

COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES

M. GORDON WOLMAN (Chair),

The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland

PATRICK R. ATKINS,

Aluminum Company of America, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

EDITH BROWN WEISS,

Georgetown University Law Center, Washington, D.C.

JAMES P. BRUCE,

Canadian Climate Program Board, Ottawa, Canada

WILLIAM L. FISHER,

University of Texas, Austin

EDWARD A. FRIEMAN,

Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California

GEORGE M. HORNBERGER,

University of Virginia, Charlottesville

W. BARCLAY KAMB,

California Institute of Technology, Pasadena

PERRY L. McCARTY,

Stanford University, California

RAYMOND A. PRICE,

Queen's University of Kingston, Ontario, Canada

THOMAS A. SCHELLING,

University of Maryland, College Park

ELLEN SILBERGELD,

Environmental Defense Fund, Washington, D.C.

STEVEN M. STANLEY,

The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland

VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL,

Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida

WARREN WASHINGTON,

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

Staff

STEPHEN RATTIEN, Executive Director

STEPHEN D. PARKER, Associate Executive Director

MORGAN GOPNIK, Assistant Executive Director

JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative Officer

SANDRA FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate

ROBIN ALLEN, Senior Project Assistant

Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×

Preface

The 10-year international Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program was a major element of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) with participation by the United States and many other countries. As TOGA approached its midpoint in 1989, two realizations with respect to the program had begun to emerge. The first was that, despite the remarkable progress already made, 10 years would not be long enough to achieve fully the objectives of TOGA's observational, modeling, and prediction components. The second realization was that climate variations on seasonal-to-interannual time scales seemed to be intimately linked with variations in extratropical sea-surface temperature (SST) and land-surface properties. This second realization cast attention on the possibility of acting on the achievements of TOGA to expand the area of inquiry beyond the tropical Pacific Ocean, where TOGA had concentrated its efforts, to the rest of the globe.

To consider both of these matters, the TOGA Panel of the National Research Council met with the Scientific Steering Group of the international TOGA program on 23–24 July 1990, in Kona, Hawaii. There, the TOGA Panel recommended that, to exploit the scientific advances made in understanding the dynamics of the coupled tropical ocean and global atmosphere system, a follow-on program to TOGA should be created to focus on global climate variability at seasonal-to-interannual time scales.

Toward this end, the TOGA Panel organized a series of study

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×

sessions. These covered the Asiatic monsoons, air–sea interaction in the tropical Atlantic, and the role of extratropical SST variations. On the basis of conclusions drawn from these study sessions, the TOGA Panel then proposed to the National Research Council's Climate Research Committee (CRC) that the CRC initiate a program as a follow-on to TOGA. That program, described in this volume, is called GOALS—the Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System program. GOALS is envisioned as supporting the new, international, 15-year program—CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Prediction program)—about to be launched by the WCRP.

In response to the TOGA Panel's suggestion, the CRC formed a GOALS steering committee (David L.T. Anderson, Michael Ghil, David Halpern, Edward S. Sarachik, Jagadish Shukla, and J. Michael Wallace) to explore further the ideas presented by the TOGA Panel and to engage a broader community of scientists. This Steering Committee planned the GOALS Study Conference, which was held at the East-West Center in Honolulu, Hawaii, on 1–3 March 1993. (The agenda and a list of participants appear in Appendix B of this report.) Attended by 110 scientists, the conference was organized around a number of scientific questions, each of which was addressed by an invited speaker. Taking into account the presentations and discussions at the conference, the Steering Committee assisted the CRC in preparing the GOALS science plan presented here.

The GOALS plan is for a 15-year (1995–2010) research program that builds on the success of TOGA. The plan calls for an expansion of observational, modeling, and process research to include the possible influences of the global upper oceans and time-varying land moisture, vegetation, snow and sea ice. We expect GOALS would be an important component of the CLIVAR program, and that it would benefit greatly from close cooperation with other research programs of the WCRP. We believe that a successful GOALS program would lay the foundation for a scientific basis for dynamical prediction of climate variations at seasonal-to-interannual time scales.

For their assistance in the production of this report, we are indebted to the staff of the Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate.

JAGADISH SHUKLA, CHAIR

GOALS STEERING COMMITTEE

Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×
Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×
Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×

LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES

Figures

2-1

 

Schematic of major large-scale climate anomalies associated with the warm phase of the Southern Oscillation during Northern Hemisphere winter. Based on Ropelewski and Halpert (1986, 1987) and Halpert and Ropelewski (1992).

 

 

3-1

 

(a) Annual-mean precipitation over the tropics, after Jaeger (1976). The heavy contour encloses regions with amounts in excess of 12 cm per month; and light, intermediate, and dark shading correspond to amounts in excess of 16, 20, and 30 cm per month, respectively. (b) Annual-mean outgoing longwave radiation, for the period 1974–1991. Values below 240 Wm-2, indicated by the shading, are associated with regions of enhanced deep convective clouds.

 

 

3-2

 

Climatological mean sea-surface temperature (SST), surface winds, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over the Indian Ocean for the months of April and July. Contour interval 1K for SST; OLR values below 240 Wm-2, indicated by the shading, are associated with regions of enhanced deep convective clouds. SST and surface winds after Sadler et al. (1987).

 

 

3-3

 

Time-longitude section showing the depth of the 20°C isotherm along the equator in the Pacific, based on data from the TOGA Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) array. Contour interval 20 m.

 

 

3-4

 

Time series of surface wind speed, insolation, and subsurface temperature at the TOGA TAO mooring on the equator at 140°W over an 11-day period. The subsurface time series are for the depths of (proceeding from top to bottom) 1, 3, 10, 17, 24, 30, 36, and 45 m.

 

 

4-1

 

GOALS program architecture, showing the interrelated components of the program.

 

 

4-2

 

Illustration of the partitioning of GOALS research among the various program elements (rows) and the various consortia and individual principal investigators (columns). Examples of hypothetical consortium themes are given in the text.

 

 

6-1

 

1000-year mean SST-anomaly fields for ENSO conditions from the Zebiak-Cane coupled model.

 

 

6-2

 

Functional relationship between GOALS and the other interannual research components of the U.S. Global Change Research Program. The GOALS program will serve as the principal focus for basic research on seasonal-to-interannual time scales. The proposed Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) and the pro

 

 

Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×

 

 

posed Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) would provide observations worldwide and the proposed International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRICP) would provide experimental prediction and assessments of seasonal-to-interannual climate variations.

 

 

7-1

 

GOALS program management structure and its relationship to the international CLIVAR program. Shown are relationships among oversight committees, science panels, project offices, federal agencies, and groups participating in the GOALS program. Also depicted are relevant components of the CLIVAR management structure and its principal communication link to the GOALS program through the project offices (dashed line).

 

 

A-1

 

Observed (upper) and predicted (lower) 500-mb height-anomaly fields for the warm ENSO event of the northern winter of 1982–1983. The observations are from analysis by the ECMWF; the prediction is an average of three forecasts, made at a lead time of 6 to 8 months, by Bengtsson et al. (1993). Solid contours are associated with positive height anomalies and dashed lines show negative height anomalies.

 

 

Tables

3-1

 

Climatological mean precipitation (in cm) for selected stations, showing the onset of the rainy season.

 

 

4-1

 

Satellite data products for GOALS.

 

 

Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×
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Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×
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Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×
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Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×
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Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×
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Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×
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Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×
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Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×
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Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×
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Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×
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Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×
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Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×
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This book lays out a science plan for a major, international, 15-year research program. The past 10 years have seen significant progress in studies of short-term climate variations, in particular for the region of the tropical Pacific Ocean and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon. Some forecast skill with lead times as long as a year in advance has already been developed and put to use. The GOALS program plans to capitalize on this progress by expanding efforts on observations and seasonal-to-interannual predictions to the remainder of the tropics and to higher latitudes.

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