Carbon Dioxide Utilization Markets and Infrastructure: Status and Opportunities: A First Report (2022)

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Prepublication Copy – Subject to Further Editorial Correction Carbon Dioxide Utilization Markets and Infrastructure Status and Opportunities A First Report Committee on Carbon Utilization Infrastructure, Markets, Research and Development Board on Energy and Environmental Systems Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology Division on Earth and Life Studies National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine National Academies Press Washington, DC Consensus Study Report i Prepublication Copy – Subject to Further Editorial Correction 

NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This activity was supported by Contract DE-EP0000026/89303021FFE400026 with the U.S. Department of Energy. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-XXXXX-X International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-XXXXX-X Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/26703 This publication is available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2022 by the National Academy of Sciences. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and National Academies Press and the graphical logos for each are all trademarks of the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Carbon Dioxide Utilization Markets and Infrastructure: Status and Opportunities: A First Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/26703. ii Prepublication Copy – Subject to Further Editorial Correction 

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org. iii Prepublication Copy – Subject to Further Editorial Correction 

Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task. Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies. Rapid Expert Consultations published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine are authored by subject-matter experts on narrowly focused topics that can be supported by a body of evidence. The discussions contained in rapid expert consultations are considered those of the authors and do not contain policy recommendations. Rapid expert consultations are reviewed by the institution before release. For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo. iv Prepublication Copy – Subject to Further Editorial Correction 

COMMITTEE ON CARBON UTILIZATION INFRASTRUCTURE, MARKETS, RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT EMILY A. CARTER (NAS/NAE), Princeton University and Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Chair SHOTA ATSUMI, University of California, Davis MAKINI BYRON, Linde ALAYNA CHUNEY,1 Carbon180 STEPHEN COMELLO, Stanford Graduate School of Business, EFI Foundation MAOHONG FAN, University of Wyoming and Georgia Institute of Technology MATTHEW FRY, Great Plains Institute HAROUN MAHGEREFTEH, University College London EMANUELE MASSETTI, Georgia Institute of Technology AH-HYUNG (ALISSA) PARK, Columbia University JOSEPH POWELL (NAE), Shell (retired) ANDREA RAMÍREZ RAMÍREZ, Delft University of Technology VOLKER SICK, University of Michigan Staff ELIZABETH ZEITLER, Associate Director, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems (BEES), Study Co-Director CATHERINE WISE, Program Officer, BEES, Study Co-Director LIANA VACCARI, Program Officer, Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology REBECCA DEBOER, Research Associate, BEES JASMINE BRYANT, Research Assistant, BEES KAIA RUSSELL, Program Assistant, BEES NOTE: See Appendix B, Disclosure of Conflicts of Interest. 1 Resigned May 2022. v Prepublication Copy – Subject to Further Editorial Correction 

BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS JARED COHON (NAE), Carnegie Mellon University, Chair VICKY BAILEY, Anderson Stratton Enterprises, LLC; BHMM Energy Services, LLC CARLA BAILO, Center for Automotive Research DEEPAKRAJ DIVAN (NAE), Georgia Institute of Technology MARCIUS EXTAVOUR, XPRIZE Foundation T.J. GLAUTHIER, TJG Energy Associates, LLC PAULA GLOVER, Alliance to Save Energy AMOS GOLDHABER, Claremont Creek Ventures DENISE GRAY (NAE), LG Chem Michigan Inc. Tech Center JENNIFER HOLMGREN, LanzaTech JOHN KASSAKIAN (NAE), Massachusetts Institute of Technology MICHAEL LAMACH, Trane Technologies (retired) JOSÉ SANTIESTEBAN (NAE), ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company (retired) ALEXANDER SLOCUM, SR. (NAE), Massachusetts Institute of Technology SUSAN TIERNEY, Analysis Group GORDON VAN WELIE (NAE), ISO New England, Inc. DAVID VICTOR, University of California, San Diego, Deep Decarbonization Initiative Staff K. JOHN HOLMES, Director/Scholar ELIZABETH ZEITLER, Associate Director BRENT HEARD, Program Officer KASIA KORNECKI, Program Officer CATHERINE WISE, Program Officer REBECCA DEBOER, Research Associate KYRA HOWE, Research Assistant JASMINE BRYANT, Research Assistant KAIA RUSSELL, Program Assistant HEATHER LOZOWSKI, Financial Manager vi Prepublication Copy – Subject to Further Editorial Correction 

BOARD ON CHEMICAL SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGY SCOTT COLLICK, DuPont, Co-Chair JENNIFER SINCLAIR CURTIS, University of California, Davis, Co-Chair GERARD BAILLELY, Procter & Gamble Company RUBEN CARBONELL (NAE), North Carolina State University JOHN FORTNER, Yale University KAREN GOLDBERG (NAS), Vagelos Institute for Energy Science and Technology, University of Pennsylvania JENNIFER HEEMSTRA, Emory University JODIE LUTKENHAUS, Texas A&M University SHELLEY MINTEER, University of Utah AMY PRIETO, Colorado State University and Prieto Battery, Inc. MEGAN ROBERTSON, University of Houston SALY ROMERO-TORRES, Thermo Fisher Scientific Pharma Services REBECCA RUCK, Merck Research Laboratories ANUP K. SINGH, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory VIJAY SWARUP, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company Staff CHARLES FERGUSON, Director LIANA VACCARI, Program Officer LINDA NHON, Associate Program Officer JESSICA WOLFMAN, Research Associate BEN ULRICH, Communications and Media Associate BRENNA ALBIN, Program Assistant AYANNA LYNCH, Program Assistant NICHOLAS ROGERS, Senior Finance Business Partner THANH NGUYEN, Financial Business Partner vii Prepublication Copy – Subject to Further Editorial Correction 

Preface As we move further into the third decade of the twenty-first century, the world continues to witness ever-more concerning indicators of global climate change, from year-round wildfires of unprecedented size to megadroughts to massive flooding, exacerbated by the burning of fossil carbon that has powered our civilization for centuries. The challenge is clear and urgent: how do we maintain or improve quality of life for the planet’s inhabitants while ameliorating the harm already done and preventing future harm to the environment? One essential part of the strategy has to be to stop, on a global net basis, emitting gases to the atmosphere that warm Earth, especially but not exclusively carbon dioxide, because of its relatively high concentration and long life in the atmosphere. A global transition to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, necessary for maintaining a safe, stable climate, will require overcoming technological and societal challenges. A key component in achieving net-zero emissions is carbon management, which involves mitigating the vast majority of carbon dioxide emissions and ensuring that remaining flows of carbon dioxide to and from the atmosphere are balanced. Carbon dioxide utilization, the focus of this report, can play a productive role in achieving net-zero emissions by providing pathways for carbon storage or carbon removal in useful products in some cases and by enabling a circular carbon economy in others. Long-lived products, such as concrete and aggregates, can store carbon originating from fossil-derived emissions or, if produced from atmospheric or other sustainable sources of carbon dioxide, can durably remove carbon dioxide from the environment. A circular carbon economy will allow continued production and use of carbon-based products, such as aviation fuels, building materials, plastics, and commodity chemicals, without releasing net carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere. This first report from the Committee on Carbon Utilization Infrastructure, Markets, Research and Development identifies priority options for carbon dioxide–derived products that could participate in a future net-zero-emission economy, discusses the associated infrastructure requirements and deployment opportunities, and explores policy, regulatory, and societal considerations. To address this wide breadth of topics, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a committee with diverse expertise and experience, ranging from technology research and development to industrial gas and chemicals processing, to pipeline development and operations, to policy, societal, environmental, and economic analysis. The committee has worked tirelessly over the past 7 months, holding public webinars to gather information from experts and engaging in rigorous yet respectful discussions, to produce a report that reflects these various perspectives and provides valuable insights into opportunities for carbon dioxide utilization. I would like to thank all of the committee members for their commitment to this project and the National Academies staff for their outstanding support, and I look forward to working with them through the remainder of the study. Emily A. Carter, Chair Committee on Carbon Utilization Infrastructure, Markets, Research and Development viii Prepublication Copy – Subject to Further Editorial Correction 

Reviewers This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: JOHN BENEMANN, MicroBio Engineering ANDRÉ L. BOEHMAN, University of Michigan MARCIUS EXTAVOUR, XPRIZE Foundation CHRIS GREIG, Princeton University COMAS HAYNES, Georgia Institute of Technology RUDRA KAPILA, Third Way ROBERT KUMPF, Deloitte Consulting, LLP JEFF LEE, Kronos Management, LLC PAUL MAJSZTRIK, Solidia Technologies THOMAS MALLOUK (NAS), University of Pennsylvania MERCEDES MAROTO-VALER, Heriot-Watt University PIOTR MONCARZ, Exponent JOSÉ SANTIESTEBAN (NAE), ExxonMobil (retired) SHUCHI TALATI, Carbon180 BRITTANY TARUFELLI, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory GAVIN TOWLER (NAE), Honeywell CATHY TWAY, Johnson Matthey Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Andrew Brown, Jr. (NAE), Diamond Consulting and Delphi Automotive, and Christopher W. Jones (NAE), Georgia Institute of Technology. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies. ix Prepublication Copy – Subject to Further Editorial Correction 

Contents Summary ................................................................................................................................................... S-1  1  Introduction and Scope ...................................................................................................................... 1-1  1.1  Study Context............................................................................................................................. 1-1  1.2  Overview of CO2 Utilization Products, Infrastructure, and Societal Considerations ................ 1-8  1.2.1  Demand for CO2 Utilization Products in Net-Zero Systems.............................................. 1-8  1.2.2  Infrastructure for CO2 Capture, Transport, Use, and Storage ............................................ 1-9  1.2.3  Societal Considerations, Including Environmental Justice, Public Acceptance, and Policy and Economic Issues ........................................................................................................................ 1-11  1.3  Study Statement of Task .......................................................................................................... 1-11  1.4  References ................................................................................................................................ 1-13  2  Existing Infrastructure for CO2 Utilization ........................................................................................ 2-1  2.1  CO2 Sources ............................................................................................................................... 2-1  2.1.1  Current U.S. and Global CO2 Emissions and Stocks ......................................................... 2-1  2.1.2  Current Sourcing of CO2 for Utilization ............................................................................ 2-5  2.1.3  Current Mineralization CO2 Utilization Processes and Facilities ...................................... 2-7  2.1.4  Current Chemical CO2 Utilization Processes and Facilities .............................................. 2-7  2.1.5  Current Biological CO2 Utilization Processes and Facilities ............................................. 2-9  2.2  Existing CO2 Transport and Storage Infrastructure ................................................................... 2-9  2.2.1  CO2 Pipeline Systems ........................................................................................................ 2-9  2.2.2  Other Transportation Methods ......................................................................................... 2-10  2.2.3  Co-located CO2 Capture and Use ..................................................................................... 2-11  2.2.4  CO2 Storage Infrastructure ............................................................................................... 2-12  2.3  Status of Enabling Infrastructure for CO2 Utilization .............................................................. 2-13  2.3.1  Clean Electricity............................................................................................................... 2-14  2.3.2  Hydrogen.......................................................................................................................... 2-15  2.3.3  Water ................................................................................................................................ 2-17  2.3.4  Natural Gas ...................................................................................................................... 2-19  2.4  Findings on Existing Infrastructure for CO2 Utilization .......................................................... 2-20  2.5  References ................................................................................................................................ 2-21  3  Potential Uses of CO2 in Commercial Products ................................................................................. 3-1  3.1  Framing, Introduction, and Scope of Chapter ............................................................................ 3-1  3.2  Future Sources of CO2 for Utilization ........................................................................................ 3-6  3.3  Potential Utilization Products and Processes ............................................................................. 3-7  3.3.1  Construction Materials ..................................................................................................... 3-10  3.3.2  Chemicals and Fuels ........................................................................................................ 3-11  x Prepublication Copy – Subject to Further Editorial Correction 

3.3.3  Polymers, Polymer Precursors, and Composites.............................................................. 3-13  3.3.4  Elemental Carbon Materials............................................................................................. 3-13  3.3.5  Niche Products: Diamonds, Perfumes, and Liquor .......................................................... 3-14  3.4  Emerging, Pilot, and Commercial Facilities Utilizing CO2 ..................................................... 3-14  3.5  Priority Needs for CO2-Derived Products That Could Contribute to a Net-Zero Carbon Future 3- 15  3.5.1  CO2-Derived Product Priorities........................................................................................ 3-15  3.5.2  Requirements for Other Inputs and Feedstocks ............................................................... 3-16  3.5.3  Consumer Sentiment ........................................................................................................ 3-20  3.5.4  Future Market Volumes and Current Price Points ........................................................... 3-20  3.6  Near-Term Opportunities, Synergies, and Needs .................................................................... 3-22  3.6.1  Construction Materials ..................................................................................................... 3-22  3.6.2  Synthetic Fuels ................................................................................................................. 3-23  3.6.3  Commodity Chemicals ..................................................................................................... 3-24  3.6.4  Polymers .......................................................................................................................... 3-24  3.6.5  Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 3-25  3.7  Findings and Recommendations on Potential Uses of CO2 in Commercial Products ............. 3-25  3.8  References ................................................................................................................................ 3-27  4  Infrastructure Considerations for CO2 Utilization ............................................................................. 4-1  4.1  CO2 Capture ............................................................................................................................... 4-1  4.2  CO2 Purification ......................................................................................................................... 4-6  4.3  CO2 Transportation .................................................................................................................. 4-11  4.3.1  CO2 Transport in Industrial Clusters ................................................................................ 4-12  4.3.2  Multimodal CO2 Transport Infrastructure ........................................................................ 4-13  4.3.3  CO2 Transport Safety Considerations .............................................................................. 4-17  4.3.4  Repurposing Natural Gas Pipelines for Transporting CO2: Opportunities and Challenges . 4- 18  4.4  CO2 Conversion and Product Transportation ........................................................................... 4-20  4.4.1  Impact of Feedstock and Product Properties on Infrastructure Decisions ....................... 4-20  4.4.2  Considerations for Transporting Supercritical or Dense Phase CO2 Feedstock Versus a Solid or Liquid Product .................................................................................................................... 4-21  4.5  Enabling Infrastructure ............................................................................................................ 4-22  4.5.1  Clean Electricity............................................................................................................... 4-22  4.5.2  Hydrogen.......................................................................................................................... 4-23  4.5.3  Water ................................................................................................................................ 4-25  4.5.4  Land-Use Constraints ....................................................................................................... 4-28  4.5.5  Energy and Hydrogen Storage ......................................................................................... 4-30  xi Prepublication Copy – Subject to Further Editorial Correction 

4.6  Findings and Recommendations on Infrastructure Considerations for CO2 Utilization .......... 4-31  4.7  References ................................................................................................................................ 4-34  5  Policy, Regulatory, and Societal Considerations for CO2 Utilization Systems ................................. 5-1  5.1  Policy and Regulatory Considerations ....................................................................................... 5-1  5.1.1  Cost-Effective Regulation of Environmental and Knowledge Externalities...................... 5-1  5.2  Current Regulatory Framework for Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage ......................... 5-5  5.2.1  Facilities Permitting ........................................................................................................... 5-5  5.2.2  Pipeline Permitting............................................................................................................. 5-8  5.2.3  Regulatory Frictions or Uncertainties .............................................................................. 5-11  5.2.4  Economic Policy Friction or Uncertainties ...................................................................... 5-11  5.3  Societal Acceptance and Environmental Justice ...................................................................... 5-13  5.3.1  Distributional Effects ....................................................................................................... 5-13  5.3.2  Environmental Justice ...................................................................................................... 5-14  5.3.3  Current Approaches to Communication and Productive Community Engagement in Planning 5-16  5.4  Findings and Recommendations for Policy, Regulatory, and Societal Considerations for CO2 Utilization ............................................................................................................................................ 5-18  5.5  References ................................................................................................................................ 5-19  6  Priority Infrastructure Opportunities for CO2 Utilization .................................................................. 6-1  6.1  Infrastructure Funding and Investments..................................................................................... 6-1  6.2  Near-term versus Long-term Infrastructure Strategies .............................................................. 6-3  6.3  Findings and Recommendations on Priority Infrastructure Opportunities for CO2 Utilization . 6-5  6.4  References .................................................................................................................................. 6-7  A  Committee Member Biographies ...................................................................................................... A-1  B  Disclosure of Conflicts of Interest .................................................................................................... B-1  C  Information-Gathering Activities ...................................................................................................... C-1  D  Acronyms and Abbreviations............................................................................................................ D-1  E  Glossary ............................................................................................................................................ E-1  xii Prepublication Copy – Subject to Further Editorial Correction