Consensus Study Report
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This activity was supported by contracts between the National Academy of Sciences and the Administration for Children and Families, a division of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (75ACF121C00093), Bainum Family Foundation (7608), Doris Duke Foundation (2021249), Foundation for Child Development (NAS 03-2021), National Academy of Sciences W.K. Kellogg Fund, Russell Sage Foundation (2104-31166), and W.K. Kellogg Foundation (P-6000158-2021). Support for the work of the Board on Children, Youth, and Families is provided by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (79846). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-70366-6
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-70366-2
Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/27058
Library of Congress Control Number: 2023952320
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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Reducing Intergenerational Poverty. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/27058.
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COMMITTEE ON POLICIES AND PROGRAMS TO REDUCE INTERGENERATIONAL POVERTY
GREG J. DUNCAN (Chair), University of California, Irvine
FENABA R. ADDO, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
ANNA AIZER, Brown University
MARGARET R. BURCHINAL, University of Virginia
RAJ CHETTY, Harvard University
STEPHANIE A. FRYBERG, University of Michigan
HARRY J. HOLZER, Georgetown University
VONNIE C. MCLOYD, University of Michigan
KIMBERLY G. MONTEZ, Wake Forest School of Medicine
AISHA D. NYANDORO, Springboard to Opportunities
MARY E. PATTILLO, Northwestern University
JESSE ROTHSTEIN, University of California, Berkeley
MICHAEL R. STRAIN, American Enterprise Institute
STEPHEN J. TREJO, University of Texas at Austin
Study Staff
JENNIFER APPLETON GOOTMAN, Study Director (from March 2022)
SUZANNE LE MENESTREL, Study Director (until January 2022)
PRIYANKA NALAMADA, Program Officer
BRIANA SMITH, Senior Program Assistant (from July 2022)
MARISSA GLOVER, Senior Program Assistant (until July 2022)
CONNIE CITRO, Senior Scholar
EMILY P. BACKES, Deputy Board Director
Consultant
RITA HAMAD, James C. Puffer American Board of Family Medicine / National Academy of Medicine Fellow, Harvard School of Public Health
BOARD ON CHILDREN, YOUTH, AND FAMILIES
JONATHAN TODRES (Chair), Georgia State University College of Law
RICHARD F. CATALANO, JR., University of Washington School of Social Work
TAMMY CHANG, University of Michigan
DIMITRI A. CHRISTAKIS, Seattle Children’s Research Institute, University of Washington
ANDREA GONZALEZ, McMaster University
NANCY E. HILL, Harvard University
CHARLES HOMER, Economic Mobility Pathways
MARGARET KUKLINSKI, University of Washington
MICHAEL C. LU, UC Berkeley School of Public Health
STEPHANIE J. MONROE, Wrenwood Group
STEPHEN RUSSELL, The University of Texas at Austin
NISHA SACHDEV, Premnas Partners, Washington, DC
JANE WALDFOGEL, Columbia University School of Social Work
JOANNA L. WILLIAMS, Rutgers University
Staff
NATACHA BLAIN, Senior Board Director
EMILY P. BACKES, Deputy Board Director
COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS
KATHARINE G. ABRAHAM (Chair), University of Maryland, College Park
MICK P. COUPER, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan
DIANA FARRELL, JPMorgan Chase Institute
ROBERT M. GOERGE, Chapin Hall at the University of Chicago
ERICA GROSHEN, School of Industrial and Labor Relations, Cornell University
DANIEL E. HO, Stanford Law School and Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research
HILARY HOYNES, Goldman School of Public Policy and Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley
DANIEL KIFER, Department of Computer Science, The Pennsylvania State University
SHARON LOHR, School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Arizona State University, Emeritus
NELA RICHARDSON, ADP Research Institute
C. MATTHEW SNIPP, School of the Humanities and Sciences, Stanford University
ELIZABETH A. STUART, Department of Mental Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Staff
MELISSA CHIU, Director
BRIAN HARRIS-KOJETIN, Senior Scholar
CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Senior Scholar
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Reviewers
This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.
We thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report, nor did they see the final draft before its
release. The review of this report was overseen by KENNETH A. DODGE, Duke University, and SHERRY GLIED, New York University. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.
Acknowledgments
An ad hoc consensus study committee of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine was convened to analyze the evidence on key determinants of intergenerational poverty and the effectiveness of programs designed to address those determinants in order to identify policies and programs with the potential to reduce long-term, intergenerational poverty.
The committee thanks the sponsors of this study for their support: the Administration for Children and Families, a division of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Bainum Family Foundation, the Doris Duke Foundation, the Foundation for Child Development, the National Academy of Sciences W.K. Kellogg Fund, the Russell Sage Foundation, and the W.K. Kellogg Foundation.
This report would not have been possible without the contributions of many people. Special thanks go to the members of the committee, who dedicated extensive time, expertise, and energy to the drafting of the report. The committee also thanks the members of the staff of the National Academies for their significant contributions to the report: Jennifer Appleton Gootman, Priyanka Nalamada, Emily Backes, and Briana Smith, as well as Suzanne LeMenestral and Marissa Glover, who both contributed to the early stages of working with the committee.
The committee is also grateful to Javed Kahn, Pamella Atayi, and Lisa Alston for their administrative and financial assistance on this project. From the Office of Reports and Communication of the Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education (DBASSE), Kirsten Sampson Snyder, Viola Horek, Douglas Sprunger, and Meredith Fender shepherded
the report through the review and the production process and assisted with its communication and dissemination. Hannah Fuller and Megan Lowry, of the Office of News and Public Information, and Sandra McDermin and Julie Eubank, of the Office of Congressional and Government Affairs, were instrumental in the release and promotion of the report. The committee also thanks Clair Woolley of the National Academies Press and Bea Porter of DBASSE for their assistance with the production of the final report; Anne Marie Houppert, in the National Academies research library, for her assistance with fact checking and literature searches; as well as Connie Citro and Alix Beatty, National Academies staff, for their skillful writing and editing contributions.
Many individuals volunteered significant time and effort to address and educate the committee during our information gathering sessions. Their willingness to share their perspectives, research, and personal experiences was essential to the committee’s work. We thank: Megan Bang, Northwestern University; Jill Duerr Berrick, University of California, Berkeley; Cheryl Crazy Bull, American Indian College Fund; Matt Gregg, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis; Brenda Jones Harden, University of Maryland; Anna Haskins, University of Notre Dame; Joe Hobot, American Indian OIC; Kevin Killer, Oglala Sioux Tribe; Judith LeBlanc, Native Organizers Alliance and Parents; Jens Ludwig, The University of Chicago; Susan Mangold, Juvenile Law Center; Leslie Paik, Arizona State University; Steven Raphael, University of California, Berkeley; Beth Redbird, Northwestern University; Emilia Simeonova, Johns Hopkins University; C. Matt Snipp, Stanford University; Karina L. Walters, University of Washington; Bruce Western, Columbia University; and the parents, caregivers, organizational representatives, and policy experts who participated in our listening sessions.
The committee thanks the researchers who conducted original analyses and prepared commissioned papers: Lawrence M. Berger, Sophie Collyer, Brenda Jones Harden, Margaret Thomas, Jane Waldfogel, Chris Wimer; as well as the staff at Ascend, Aspen Institute, for organizing and shepherding the committee’s listening sessions: Marjorie Sims and Andrea Camp. The committee also thanks the following individuals for their contributions to this study and the final report: Nicholas Ainsworth, Dorothy Duncan, Jonathan Fisher, Abby Hiller, David Johnson, Zachary Parolin, and Austen Zheng.
Throughout the project, Natacha Blain, director of the Board on Children, Youth, and Families, Carlotta Arthur and Patti Simon, executive director and associate executive director of DBASSE, alongside Mary Ellen O’Connell and Monica Feit, the then executive director and deputy executive director of DBASSE, provided valuable oversight and guidance.
Greg J. Duncan, Chair
Committee on Policies and Programs to Reduce Intergenerational Poverty
Contents
DEFINING INTERGENERATIONAL POVERTY
ORGANIZING OUR DISCUSSION OF DRIVERS AND INTERVENTIONS
APPLYING A RACIAL/ETHNIC LENS IN ASSESSING THE EVIDENCE
CRITERIA FOR SELECTING PROGRAM AND POLICY INTERVENTIONS
Strength of the Research Evidence
Magnitude of Impacts and Costs of Policies and Programs
2 A Demographic Portrait of Intergenerational Child Poverty
MEASURING INTERGENERATIONAL POVERTY
THE DEMOGRAPHICS OF INTERGENERATIONAL POVERTY
A BROADER LOOK AT INTERGENERATIONAL INCOME MOBILITY ACROSS GROUPS
INTERGENERATIONAL INCOME MOBILITY AMONG CHILDREN OF IMMIGRANTS
THE GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF INTERGENERATIONAL POVERTY
INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY: TRENDS AND COMPARISONS WITH OTHER COUNTIES
Trends in U.S. Intergenerational Mobility
INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY IN THE UNITED STATES VERSUS OTHER COUNTRIES
3 Racial Disparities in Intergenerational Poverty
DEFINING DISPARITY, INEQUALITY, DISCRIMINATION, AND STRUCTURAL RACISM
HISTORICAL ROOTS OF RACIAL DISPARITIES IN INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY
CONTEMPORARY DRIVERS OF RACIAL DISPARITY IN INTERGENERATIONAL POVERTY
Housing and Neighborhood Environments
Crime, Victimization, and Criminal Justice
SOME IMPLICATIONS FOR PROGRAM AND POLICY INTERVENTIONS
HOW EDUCATION AFFECTS THE ECONOMIC MOBILITY OF CHILDREN
ACHIEVEMENT AND ATTAINMENT DIFFERENCES ACROSS RACIAL AND ETHNIC GROUPS
EARLY-LIFE EDUCATION, CARE, AND PARENTING
K-12 Policy and Program Ideas Based on Direct Evidence
K-12 Policy and Program Ideas Based on Indirect Evidence
Postsecondary Education Policy and Program Ideas Based on Direct Evidence
Postsecondary Education Policy and Program Ideas Based on Indirect Evidence
Career Training Policy and Program Ideas Based on Direct Evidence
HEALTH DIFFERENCES ACROSS INCOME, RACIAL, AND ETHNIC GROUPS
HOW HEALTH AFFECTS THE ECONOMIC MOBILITY OF CHILDREN
ACCESS TO HEALTH CARE: FAMILY PLANNING, MEDICAID, INDIAN HEALTH SERVICES, AND MENTAL HEALTH SERVICES
Access to Family Planning Services
Health Insurance Coverage During Pregnancy and Childhood Through Medicaid
Access to Publicly Provided Health Care via the Indian Health Service (IHS)
ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCES AS A DRIVER: POLLUTION, STRESS, AND VIOLENCE
Increased Stress in Utero and During Childhood
Greater Exposure to Violence, Especially Gun Violence
NUTRITION AND FOOD INSECURITY AS A DRIVER
INTERVENTIONS INVOLVING CHILDREN’S HEALTH
Increasing Access to Health Care Based on Direct Evidence
Improving the Environment Based on Direct Evidence
Improving Nutrition Based on Direct Evidence
HEALTH INTERVENTIONS BASED ON INDIRECT EVIDENCE
Increasing Access to Medical Care Among Native American Families
Increasing Access to Mental Health Care
6 Children’s Family Income, Wealth, and Parental Employment
Family Income and Child Poverty
International Comparisons of Child Poverty Rates
Trends in Earnings and Employment
Causes of Unequal Employment and Earnings by Gender and Race
Childhood Poverty and Intergenerational Outcomes
Parental Employment and Intergenerational Outcomes
Increased Access to Work-Based Safety-Net Benefits
WEALTH AND INTERGENERATIONAL POVERTY
Household Wealth and Intergenerational Outcomes
INTERVENTIONS INVOLVING CHILDREN’S FAMILY INCOME AND WEALTH AND PARENTAL EMPLOYMENT
Policy and Program Ideas Based on Direct Evidence
Policy and Program Ideas Based on Indirect Evidence
FAMILY STRUCTURE AND INTERGENERATIONAL CHILD WELL-BEING
DOES FAMILY STRUCTURE AFFECT INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY?
Neighborhood Differences in Family Structure
Incarceration and Family Structure Differences
FAMILY STRUCTURE INTERVENTIONS
8 Children’s Housing and Neighborhood Environments
HOUSING AND NEIGHBORHOOD INTERVENTIONS
Policy and Program Ideas Based on Direct Evidence
Policy and Program Ideas Based on Indirect Evidence
9 Neighborhood Crime and the Criminal Justice System
VICTIMIZATION AND EXPOSURE TO VIOLENCE AS A DRIVER OF INTERGENERATIONAL POVERTY
Exposure to Neighborhood Violence
Predictors of Neighborhood Violence
YOUTH OFFENDING AND THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM AS DRIVERS OF INTERGENERATIONAL POVERTY
High-Frequency Police Encounters and Excessive Use of Force
Parent and Caregiver Interaction with the Criminal Justice System: Incarceration, Fines, and Fees
INTERVENTIONS INVOLVING NEIGHBORHOOD CRIME AND CRIMINAL JUSTICE
Policy and Program Ideas Based on Direct Evidence
Policy and Program Ideas Based on Indirect Evidence
WHICH CHILDREN ARE INVOLVED WITH THE CHILD WELFARE SYSTEM?
CHILD MALTREATMENT AND CHILD WELFARE SYSTEM INVOLVEMENT AS DRIVERS OF INTERGENERATIONAL POVERTY
Adult Correlates of Childhood Maltreatment
Consequences of Involvement with Child Protective Services
Out-of-Home Care (Foster Care)
Factors Leading to Child Welfare Involvement
INTERVENTIONS REDUCING CHILD MALTREATMENT
11 Research and Data Needs for Understanding and Ameliorating Intergenerational Poverty
PRIORITIES FOR FUTURE RESEARCH
CREATING A FEDERAL DATA INFRASTRUCTURE FOR RESEARCH USE
Data Sources and Linkage Possibilities for Economic Resources
Remaining Challenges for Economic Opportunity Research
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ON RESEARCH AND DATA NEEDS
Experiments and Long-Term Follow-Ups
A Federal Data Infrastructure for Research Use
APPENDIX B Perspectives on Intergenerational Poverty
PUBLIC INFORMATION GATHERING SESSIONS
Perspectives on Native American Communities
Perspectives on Children Involved with the Child Welfare and Justice Systems
Parent and Caregiver Perspectives
Alaskan Native and Pacific Islander Community Perspectives
APPENDIX C Appendices to Chapters
Contemporary Measures of Mobility by Subgroup and Area Based on Tax Data
Comparisons with Studies Based on the Panel Study of Income Dynamics
Historical Trends in Absolute Mobility
Patterns of Intergenerational Mobility by Race and Gender
Defining Disparity, Inequality, Discrimination, and Structural Racism
Historical Roots of Racial Disparities in Intergenerational Mobility
Contemporary Drivers of Racial Disparities in Intergenerational Poverty
Early Care and Education (ECE)
Possible Explanations for Discrepant Findings on Long-Term ECE Impacts
Transforming Model Programs into At-Scale Public Programs
Targeting Recipients of ECE Services
To What Extent Subsequent Experiences Support Initial Gains
Changes in Instructional Focus Over Time
Inadequacy of Funding for the Indian Health Service (IHS)
Impacts of the Earned Income Tax Credit on Child Outcomes
Background Section for Interventions
Evidence on Housing Assistance for Intergenerational Mobility
Trends in Crime and Incarceration: Causes and Policy Implications
11-6 Relevant Legislation and Statements of Support for Linked Data for Evidence
C-3-1 History of Land Dispossession and the Sauk Tribe
C-3-2 Labor Exploitation Through Sharecropping
FIGURES
S-1 Intergenerational persistence of low-income status
S-2 Fraction of intergenerationally low-income people in different racial and ethnic groups
S-3 Intergenerational mobility
1-1 Direct and indirect evidence of a policy change on long-run
2-2 Intergenerational low-income persistence
2-3 Fraction of children with low income in both childhood and adulthood
2-4 Intergenerational earnings and household income mobility for sons
2-5 Intergenerational earnings and household income mobility for daughters
2-6 Intergenerational mobility
2-7 Average income rank of sons with low-income parents
2-9 Age-35 household income of children of low-income parents in the New York City area
2-10 Percent of children earning more than their parents
3-1 How air pollution across America reflects racist policy from the 1930s
4-1 Employment rates for 25- to 34-year-olds in 2019
4-2 Median annual earnings for 25- to 34-year-old workers in 2019
4-3 8th grade reading proficiency rates
4-4 College enrollment and bachelor of arts (BA)+ attainment rates
5-1 Adult health and early childhood income status
5-2 Health of children living in poverty vs. other children
5-3 Maternal and infant health disparities by race/ethnicity
5-6 Food insecurity among children
6-1 Average U.S. household income of children in the bottom
6-2 Child poverty in the United States and four other anglophone countries
6-3 Average real wages in the United States for the 10th
6-4 Median usual weekly earnings of full-time wage and salary workers by race/ethnicity and sex
6-5 Employment-to-population ratios by race and gender
6-6 Median net worth of U.S. families in 2019
6-7 Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) expansion options
7-1 Percent of children living with married parents and in other arrangements
7-2 Percent of children living with married parents, by race/ethnicity and education, 2019
7-3 Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) child poverty rates by family composition
8-1 Inadequate housing by poverty status and race/ethnicity
8-2 Homeownership rates based on household income as a percent of area median by race/ethnicity
8-4 Children living in high-poverty areas by race and ethnicity in the United States
9-1 Violent crime victimization rates (per 1,000) in 2019
9-2 Juvenile overall and violent crime arrest rates (per 1,000) in 2018
9-3 Number of confined youth by type of facility in 2019
9-4 Number of youth in long-term secure facilities/detention in 2019 by offense category
10-1 Rates of substantiated maltreatment of children ages 0–17 by selected characteristics
C-2-1 Intergenerational mobility based on several measures of economic status
C-2-4 Average income-to-needs of children by percentile of the adjusted gross income distribution
C-3-1 Incarceration rates by race from 1880 to 1950
C-9-1 U.S. violent crime rate per 100,000 from 1960–2021
C-9-2 Incarceration rates by race
C-9-3 Rate of juvenile confinement by race/ethnicity
TABLES
S-1 Program and Policy Ideas Linked by Direct Evidence to Reductions in Intergenerational Poverty
11-1 Programs and Policies Linked by Direct Evidence to Reductions in Intergenerational Poverty
C-2-1 Intergenerational poverty statistics based on adjusted gross income (AGI) data in tax records
C-2-2 Intergenerational poverty statistics based on data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics
C-2-4 Average income-to-needs by percentile of the adjusted gross income (AGI) distribution
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Acronyms
| ABC–Infant | Attachment and Biobehavioral Catch-up–Infant |
| ACA | Affordable Care Act |
| ACLU | American Civil Liberties Union |
| ACS | the American Community Survey |
| AFDC | Aid to Families with Dependent Children |
| AGI | adjusted gross income |
| AI | artificial intelligence |
| AMI | area median income |
| AOS | American Opportunity Study |
| ARPA | American Rescue Plan Act |
| ASAP | Accelerated Study in Associates Program |
| BAM | Becoming a Man |
| BLLs | blood lead levels |
| BLS | Bureau of Labor Statistics |
| CAA | Clean Air Act |
| CBT | congitive behavioral therapy |
| CDAs | child development accounts |
| CDC | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention |
| CID | Comprehensive Income Dataset |
| CIPSEA | Confidential Information Protection and Statistical Efficiency Act |
| CJARS | Criminal Justice Administrative Records System |
| CMTO | Creating Moves to Opportunity program |
| CPS | Child Protective Services |
| CPS ASEC | Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement |
| CTC | Child Tax Credit |
| CTE | career and technical education |
| DCDL | Decennial Census Digitization and Linkage |
| ECE | early care and education |
| EEO | Equal Employment Opportunity |
| EITC | Earned Income Tax Credit |
| EPA | Environmental Protection Agency |
| FDA | Food and Drug Administration |
| FERPA | Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act |
| FHA | Federal Housing Authority |
| FMR | Fair Market Rents |
| FPL | Federal Poverty Line |
| FSOVA | Family Stability and Opportunity Vouchers Act |
| FSRDC | Federal Statistical Research Data Center |
| HANDS | Health Access Nurturing Development Services |
| HCV | housing choice vouchers |
| HFA® | Healthy Families America® |
| HOLC | Home Owners’ Loan Corporation |
| HRS | Health and Retirement Study |
| HSIS | Head Start Impact Study |
| HUD | Department of Housing and Urban Development |
| IHS | Indian Health Service |
| IRS | Internal Revenue Service |
| IT | Information Technology |
| K-12 | kindergarten through grade 12 |
| LIHTC | Low-Income Housing Tax Credit program |
| MSI | minority-serving institution |
| MTO | Moving to Opportunity |
| NCHS | National Center for Health Statistics |
| NFP® | Nurse-Family Partnership® |
| ODRs | office discipline referrals |
| OECD | Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development |
| OJJDP | Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention |
| OMB | Office of Management and Budget |
| PBIS | Positive Behaioral Interventions and Supports |
| PCEPI | Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index |
| PM | particulate matter |
| PRO Act | Protecting the Right to Organize Act |
| PSID | Panel Study of Income Dynamics |
| RCT | randomized controlled trial |
| REO | Reentry Employment Opportunities |
| SAMHSA | Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration |
| SBHC | school-based health center |
| SES | socioeconomic status |
| SIPP | Survey of Income and Program Participation |
| SLDS | Statewide Longitudinal Data Systems |
| SNAP | Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program |
| SPM | Supplemental Poverty Measure |
| SSI | Supplemental Security Income |
| STEM | science, technology, engineering, and mathematics |
| TNAF | Temporary Assistance to Needy Families |
| TRI | Toxic Release Inventory |
| Triple P | Positive Parenting Program |
| USDA | United States Department of Agriculture |
| WIC | Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children |
