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Page 189
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C - NEMS Energy Consumption Forecasts." Transportation Research Board. 2014. Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 4: Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22379.
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Page 189
Page 190
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C - NEMS Energy Consumption Forecasts." Transportation Research Board. 2014. Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 4: Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22379.
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Page 190
Page 191
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C - NEMS Energy Consumption Forecasts." Transportation Research Board. 2014. Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 4: Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22379.
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Page 191

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189 A P P E N D I X C NEMS Energy Consumption Forecasts Percentage of quadrillion Btu (unless otherwise noted) Supply and Disposition 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 MODERATE ECONOMIC GROWTH CASE Production Crude Oil and Lease Condensate 16% 16% 15% 14% 12% Natural Gas Plant Liquids 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% Dry Natural Gas 28% 25% 26% 26% 25% Coal 29% 29% 28% 29% 33% Nuclear Power 12% 11% 11% 10% 10% Hydropower 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% Biomass 5% 7% 9% 10% 9% Other Renewable Energy 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% Other 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Imports Crude Oil 66% 64% 65% 64% 64% Liquid Fuels 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% Natural Gas 13% 14% 13% 10% 8% Other Imports 3% 3% 3% 5% 7% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 102% Exports Petroleum 55% 57% 59% 60% 60% Natural Gas 17% 22% 28% 29% 31% Coal 28% 20% 13% 11% 9% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Consumption Liquid Fuels 38% 37% 37% 36% 36% Natural Gas 24% 22% 22% 22% 21% Coal 21% 22% 22% 23% 26% Nuclear Power 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% Hydropower 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% Biomass 3% 4% 5% 4% 3% Other Renewable Energy 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% Other 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 101% (continued on next page)

190 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies Percentage of quadrillion Btu (unless otherwise noted) Supply and Disposition 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 LOW ECONOMIC GROWTH CASE Production Crude Oil and Lease Condensate 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% Natural Gas Plant Liquids 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% Dry Natural Gas 28% 25% 26% 26% 26% Coal 29% 29% 28% 28% 27% Nuclear Power 12% 12% 11% 11% 10% Hydropower 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% Biomass 5% 7% 8% 10% 12% Other Renewable Energy 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% Other 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 101% Imports Crude Oil 66% 64% 65% 63% 61% Liquid Fuels 18% 19% 19% 20% 22% Natural Gas 13% 14% 12% 11% 10% Other Imports 3% 3% 3% 5% 13% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 105% Exports Petroleum 55% 57% 58% 57% 55% Natural Gas 17% 23% 29% 33% 36% Coal 28% 20% 13% 11% 9% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 101% Consumption Liquid Fuels 38% 37% 37% 36% 34% Natural Gas 24% 22% 22% 22% 22% Coal 21% 22% 22% 23% 24% Nuclear Power 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% Hydropower 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% Biomass 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% Other Renewable Energy 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% Other 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% HIGH ECONOMIC GROWTH CASE Production Crude Oil and Lease Condensate 16% 16% 15% 13% 11% Natural Gas Plant Liquids 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% Dry Natural Gas 28% 25% 26% 25% 24% Coal 29% 29% 28% 28% 28% Nuclear Power 12% 11% 10% 10% 11% Hydropower 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% Biomass 5% 7% 10% 13% 16% Other Renewable Energy 3% 5% 5% 5% 5% Other 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 101%

NEMS Energy Consumption Forecasts 191 Percentage of quadrillion Btu (unless otherwise noted) Supply and Disposition 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Imports Crude Oil 66% 65% 64% 65% 67% Liquid Fuels 18% 19% 20% 21% 21% Natural Gas 13% 13% 12% 10% 8% Other Imports 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 101% Exports Petroleum 55% 58% 62% 64% 69% Natural Gas 17% 21% 26% 25% 24% Coal 28% 20% 12% 11% 9% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 101% Consumption Liquid Fuels 38% 38% 37% 37% 36% Natural Gas 24% 22% 22% 21% 20% Coal 21% 22% 21% 21% 22% Nuclear Power 9% 8% 8% 8% 9% Hydropower 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% Biomass 3% 4% 5% 6% 8% Other Renewable Energy 2% 4% 4% 4% 4% Other 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 101%

Next: Appendix D - Research and Data Collection »
Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 4: Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies Get This Book
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 Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 4: Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies
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TRB’s National Cooperative Highway Research Program Report 750: Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 4: Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies includes an analytical framework and implementation approaches designed to assist state departments of transportation and other transportation agencies evaluate their current and future capacity to support a sustainable society by delivering transportation solutions in a rapidly changing social, economic, and environmental context in the next 30 to 50 years.

NCHRP Report 750, Volume 4 is the fourth in a series of reports being produced by NCHRP Project 20-83: Long-Range Strategic Issues Facing the Transportation Industry. Major trends affecting the future of the United States and the world will dramatically reshape transportation priorities and needs. The American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) established the NCHRP Project 20-83 research series to examine global and domestic long-range strategic issues and their implications for state departments of transportation (DOTs); AASHTO's aim for the research series is to help prepare the DOTs for the challenges and benefits created by these trends.

Other volumes in this series currently available include:

• NCHRP Report 750: Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 1: Scenario Planning for Freight Transportation Infrastructure Investment

• NCHRP Report 750: Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 2: Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and the Highway System: Practitioner’s Guide and Research Report

• NCHRP Report 750: Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 3: Expediting Future Technologies for Enhancing Transportation System Performance

• NCHRP Report 750: Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 5: Preparing State Transportation Agencies for an Uncertain Energy Future

• NCHRP Report 750: Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 6: The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand

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