Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 4: Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies (2014)

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93 This chapter discusses how transportation agencies might address key functional gaps under different scenarios. Section 6.1 presents some general principles for managing public-sector change that are relevant to all scenarios based on analysis of the scenarios; review of the literature on sustainability, transportation, and public policy; and interviews with SMEs. Section 6.2 addresses each potential sustainable end state and probable conditions under the various scenarios. Finally, Section 6.3 identifies organizational, policy, and management implications and strategies for agencies to consider staying ahead of evolving conditions and policy systems related to TBL sustainability. 6.1 Key Principles in Preparing for TBL Sustainability under All Scenarios As emphasized throughout this report, national and global futures are highly uncertain. On the one hand, a convergence of technology and economic growth may deliver substantial benefits and opportunities. On the other, society may face an environmental and social crisis. Over the next 30 to 50 years, the United States will likely experience significant demographic shifts and economic changes, perhaps on the order of the urbanization of the late 19th and early 20th centuries. In some regions, population may shrink to near presettlement levels; in others, concentrations of people and economic activity may reach high levels. But it is important to bear in mind that the nation has experienced repeated bouts of major technological, social, and economic change over the last two centuries: the railroad system, instantaneous information transmission over long distances, the automobile highway system, two world wars, the Cold War, the civil rights movement, Vietnam, and Watergate. So although future challenges and opportunities may be significant, the social and economic resources available to respond are also formidable. The following key points should be kept in mind about the distinctly different focus of TBL sustainability under each of the proffered scenarios: • TBL sustainability is a concept that seeks to achieve a particular (and sustainable) balance of social, economic, and environmental factors—to meet and preserve a standard of living quality that is demanded by the public at a time and a place, region, or nation. • “One size” of TBL sustainability definitely does not fit all scenarios. The specific TBL balance demanded by the public is affected by existing conditions (each scenario), including politics, culture, demographics, history, and probably many other factors. • In each scenario, societal standards for TBL sustainability will seek to preserve or improve all of the “bottom lines,” but where conditions permit, society may bias the focus on improving the value of one or more of the bottom lines. C H A P T E R 6 Addressing the Functional Gaps under Scenarios

94 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies So for each scenario, a sustainable society can logically follow a different balance of public focus between each of the three bottom lines, as the public seeks to improve or—at the least— to preserve a desired overall standard of living quality for future generations. The distinctions in the focus of TBL sustainability under Wonder World versus Green World is a good illustration. The distinctions are accounted for by plausible differences in the public demands for focus on each of the three bottom lines under these two scenarios: • In the Wonder World scenario, all three bottom lines are assumed healthy, and there is envisioned to be a greater focus on investment in the economy and social welfare than in the environment. Economic growth is channeled toward greater personal income, higher individual consumption, and technology investment is focused on personal consumption and societal consumption. In this scenario, individuals reach substantially higher standards of living in conventional terms. The environment does not suffer but is probably not raised to a higher standard in the (then) near term. • In the Green World scenario, there is a much stronger social consensus and investment focus on improving the environmental pillar of the TBL while sustaining acceptable economic and social well-being. As a result, much more of the wealth generated by economic growth is assumed to be invested in environmental goods (e.g., cleaner air and water, restoration of endangered or severely damaged habitats). Thus, while employment and economy may be solid, there is less personal real disposable income due to clear public consensus to devote a larger share of the GDP to environmental protection and management. But the economic con ditions are deemed acceptable and sustainable by the public, with prospects for an improved environ- ment for themselves and future generations. The research team described sustainability in Green World as “managed austerity.” The austerity represents a deliberate collective decision to consume less as individuals and spend more on the environment, and to sustain that life style for the next generations. This is clearly a different TBL balance than that demanded by the Wonder World society. If TBL sustainability does evolve as an overarching organizing principle (or policy system) for transportation, experience and literature on sustainability-related initiatives suggest that some basic principles should be kept in mind for decisionmaking and change response, including the following: • Adopt a precautionary approach to policymaking and decisionmaking. A precautionary approach to decisionmaking means taking into account the level of risk, using existing knowledge, and accounting for uncertainties. The approach recognizes a social responsibility to minimize the community’s exposure to harm as much as possible when detailed situational analysis and investigation have found a plausible risk arising from a decision or policy choice. This precautionary approach should be used when making planning decisions that relate to new policy as well as when changing existing policy. The precautionary approach is even more advisable when there is a high level of uncertainty, where decisions are effectively irreversible, or where there are effects of low probability but potentially high impact (e.g., the decision to locate transportation infrastructure assets near areas susceptible to floods or rising sea water). • Choose flexible or adaptive management options and build internal adaptive capacity. Flexible or adaptive management strategies are based on the insight that knowledge and understand- ing of social, economic, and environmental conditions are inevitably partial; limited; held in different forms (e.g., data, tacit knowledge and understanding, experiential information); and widely distributed among different individuals, groups, and organizations. As such, no single entity can ever develop an all-encompassing vision of the world that correctly models all factors and elements likely to affect the outcome of a decision or public policy. A more realistic approach is to adopt a flexible or adaptive management strategy. Under this approach, policies are adopted and implemented incrementally or as small steps over time. The capability for policy

Addressing the Functional Gaps under Scenarios 95 change based on new information is built into the process such that the implementation or design of a program can be adjusted gradually. Monitoring is an important part of this approach: Data must be available so policy makers can identify unintended consequences and act quickly to limit damage or build on successes. More open, responsive, and resilient structures that focus on outcomes rather than process and possess an expectation of change can be helpful, but this may require a culture change and a different organizational and institutional system. A change-expecting, resilient organization provides safety (but not necessarily security or stability) in the midst of change; manages the emotional consequences of continuous mission and organizational transformation and change (e.g., anxiety, grief at the loss of status or role); and emphasizes constant learning, development, and internal capability growth. • Use no- or low-regrets options. No- or low-regrets options are built around the idea that, insofar as it is possible, good policy should bring benefits regardless of the reasonable future. Although this idea might reduce the potential for a policy to maximize benefits by “doubling down” on an attractive near-term policy option, caution may ultimately increase constituent value, because it can help agencies deal with uncertainty. In practice, this means moving away from simple statements of the costs and benefits of policies or infrastructure investments and moving toward a more nuanced approach that explicitly acknowledges uncertainty and clearly expresses benefits as a range that could occur under different conditions. For example, under this approach, a decisionmaker may have to choose between two policies—one that produces an expected net social benefit of $1 million and one that produces a range of net social benefits from $500,000 to $750,000. Under classic cost–benefit analysis, the decisionmaker would select Option 1 (Option 1 net benefit exceeds Option 2). However, if the benefit from Option 1 would only accrue if the future were exactly as predicted, while Option 2 benefits would accrue under a wide range of scenarios, the decisionmaker would select Option 2 as the no- or low- regrets option. Thus, the decisionmaker would accept suboptimal decisionmaking in exchange for an “insurance policy” against uncertainty. It should be noted that the literature on these policy approaches stresses that no- or low-regrets options are particularly suitable for near-term projects where small investments can deliver obvious and immediate benefits no matter what the outcome and provide experience on which to build further actions and support for more ambitious policy programs (Eales et al., 2006). • Avoid burden shifting. This principle suggests that decisionmaking and policymaking should not resolve problems by shifting them to other areas, jurisdictions, modes, or economic or social sectors. For example, congestion management policies might deal with the problems in one area by pushing traffic to another or create new economic or social problems by imposing costs on vulnerable commerce or populations. This principle emphasizes the need to integrate policymaking across departments and agencies. It is difficult to apply and often impeded by legislative mandates, but it is vitally important in a TBL policy system. • Deal with “messy” futures by building citizen cooperation and enabling innovation. Social, environmental, and economic innovation can be messy and confusing. The future rarely comes as a unitary, easily understood event that everyone immediately comprehends and accepts. The future arrives at an uneven pace. As the science fiction writer and futurist William Gibson observed, “The future is already here—it is just not evenly distributed” (National Public Radio, 1999). For example, for someone living in northern California and working in the technology industry, it can seem that Wonder World is well on its way to arriving. Similarly, for someone living on the Gulf Coast and still recovering from hurricanes Katrina and Rita and the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, it might seem that Crisis World is already here. Furthermore, even generally experienced events can be open to a wide range of interpretations. For example, a review of 21 books on the 2008 financial crisis found little consensus on the basic facts of the crisis, its causes, and the policies that should be adopted in response (Lo, 2012). Inevitably, politics, different interests and experiences, and personal biases affect interpretations. The “messiness” of the future is part of the reason why locations

96 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies pursuing strong TBL initiatives have adopted the precautionary principle and the other methods discussed in this section. However, the messy and “joint and uneven” nature of change is also a reason transportation agencies may want to prepare for the future by build- ing relationships with communities and groups that are affected differently, developing connections with individuals with different perspectives, working across jurisdictional borders, and accepting variability. In this sense, government can act as an enabler of inno- vation and communication. Change experienced “on the ground” can be an important part of the solution to emerging problems. Government-enabled collaboration can incorporate a diversity of perspectives, allow experimental policy design, and create an environment where it is possible to fail safely. • Make public participation a more positive force. Technological, social, legal, institutional, political, and economic changes have created an environment in which citizens, social groups, activists, and “super-empowered individuals” are a fact of life in public policymaking. Whatever happens in the future, it is unlikely that this environment will change (Friedman T. L., 2000). Most aspects of public policymaking and implementation are transparent and will become more open to citizen review and public comment and, most likely, more direct engagement in decisionmaking. This does not mean that every decision and program will be slowed down or impeded by public involvement processes. Public participation can be a vital, positive force. Indeed, the experience of sustainable transportation policy suggests that public participation is a critical element to support successful policy. Citizens are “co-producers” of these outcomes— that is, they are critically involved in the success of a policy, because substantial behavioral change is required from citizens if a policy is to deliver its full benefits (Brandsen and Pestoff, 2006). Successful approaches are likely to be those that: design policy around the assumption that the public is involved in decisionmaking; consider the public critical to successful implementation; and build public trust to enable the right decisions in periods of uncertainty. This last principle is of critical importance in preparing for the shift to a TBL-based policy system. Although effective public policy requires a democratic foundation, traditional participation models may need to be expanded to suit the increasing complex challenges of TBL. In spite of positive strides in public involvement today, there remains room for improvement even under today’s policy systems. 6.2 Agency Roles and Relationships under the Scenarios This section discusses actions and policies that agencies could undertake under the scenarios. Generally speaking, certain policies, actions, programs, and concepts are appealing no matter the scenario, as illustrated in Figure 13. In the near term, all scenarios appear to be similar. Major differences only begin to become apparent in the mid term, and truly significant changes only occur in the long term. Thus, major policy differences are only really apparent in the long term (assuming that external conditions drive policy). Therefore, recommendations for options focus on the near- and mid-term period and provide flexibility and adaptability for the future (1) to provide useful, usable, actionable information and (2) to not move transportation agencies toward policies that may not be practical or appropriate for future scenarios that could develop. Table 34 shows a likely TBL end state along with plausible roles and relationships that would exist among different government entities under the different scenarios. As the table shows, the future scenarios developed for this research range from “crisis austerity” conditions to “managed austerity” conditions, with a range of possibilities in between. The research team believes that although the roles and relation- ships are necessarily somewhat speculative, public policy logic supports them. The rest of this section discusses the key themes summarized in Table 34.

Addressing the Functional Gaps under Scenarios 97 In the Crisis World scenario, crisis austerity represents a forced march to a somewhat balanced TBL, as ongoing environmental crises, recession conditions, and social needs all compete for attention. However, this TBL will likely be combined with a low standard of living, reduced mobility, and reduced transportation options. Furthermore, the unpredictable nature of Crisis World means sustainability will constantly be under threat and will need closer attention to maintain stability. In the Mega World scenario, the main changes will be in consolidation and growth of mega- regions. Those regions will likely strongly influence TBL policy, as they do for many sustainability initiatives today. In contrast, Suburban World is a dispersed, decentralized society that will have to manage sustainability at a more local level and on a smaller scale, raising more challenges for coordination and resource balancing. It is important to understand the challenge that Suburban World would pose to sus- tainability. Suburban World envisions a radical decentralization of political and economic power. Small towns and individual homesteads would emerge as major economic hubs as people take advantage of the opportunities technology offers to move away from crowded cities. This would lead to enormous proliferation of interests, plans, and goals. Under a reen- ergized localism, the more than 87,000 governments in the United States would be actively involved in planning for sustainability. The simple number of governments would make coordination difficult to achieve. Furthermore, sustainability requires careful balancing and coordination. For TBL sustainability to function properly, there must be tradeoffs. As the number of participants in these tradeoff decisions increases, the difficulty in developing these tradeoffs would increase exponentially. In addition, the range and diversity of communities would be extremely great. They could vary from wealthy communities deeply committed to sustainability to poor communities willing to relax sustainability standards to attract economic development. On the positive side, the decentralization of authority and economic power would mean that local communities could take on a larger burden in maintaining and operating their transportation Near Term Mid Term Long Term D eg re e of d iff er en ce in s ce na ri os Condions and policy differences are relavely small – “one policy fits most” Condions and policy differences are very large – different policies, different problems Figure 13. Policy change and scenario differentiation.

98 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies Scenario Overall Orientation of Transportation Policy Plausible Roles Federal Agencies State Agencies Regional Transportation Organizations Local Governments Crisis World Crisis austerity— TBL with a low standard of living Strong influence on crisis response and transportation planning—focus on emergency planning, response, and action; focus on major transportation corridors and TBL tradeoffs Strong influence on crisis response and transportation planning—focus on emergency planning, response, and action; focus on key transportation corridors and TBL tradeoffs in the state Moderate role in planning response, coordinating rebuilding and rehabilitation programs, and shaping priorities for use of scarce transportation resources Front-line responders and managers of crisis response—manage local TBL compliance Mega World Regionally managed TBL Possible diminished role in megaregions; more focus on intercity corridors, national network efficiency, and support of rural infrastructure Possible diminished role in megaregions; more focus on intercity corridors and support of rural infrastructure; more regional, interstate interaction and coordination needed, particularly in megaregion areas Regional and megaregional planning entities likely play stronger parts in coordinated TBL-related decisionmaking Key roles in planning and implementation. Influence in TBL policy could be strengthened depending on funding structures in respect to user fees Suburban World Decentralized TBL— more numerous and more distributed initiatives Probably similar focus and interest as present; TBL initiatives are more distributed; federal and state agencies may have to share new roles if urban influence declines Increased influence and role in state transportation and TBL management; coordination of increased numbers of players in transportation planning and TBL issues Similar to current roles, possibly diminished by increased dispersion of population and transportation patterns Key roles in planning and implementation; influence in TBL policy could be somewhat stronger depending on funding structures in respect to user fees Wonder World Managed sustainability—high living standards and management of systems to deliver TBL Increased challenges in assisting agencies with rapid technological changes; helping reinvent infrastructure, if needed; otherwise, similar or somewhat diminished influence, depending on how the public pays for transportation Increased challenges in assimilating rapid technological changes and effects of infrastructure changes as well as faster demographic shifts; overall influence may depend on how the team pays for transportation; TBL will be a difficult management challenge, as rules and assumptions will change faster Regional and megaregional planning entities likely play stronger parts in coordinated TBL-related decisionmaking Key decisionmakers on adoption and implementation of new TBL-related technology Green World Managed austerity—TBL but lower living standards Major role in national TBL policy systems via development of new standards and work with states and localities to integrate and derive maximum synergy from state and local TBL programs Major role in balancing state TBL programs, working with localities to deliver TBL, and managing transportation infrastructure changes Regional and megaregional planning entities likely play stronger parts in coordinated TBL-related decisionmaking Major decisionmakers on the implementation of new TBL-related technology; involved in key decisions to decommission or reuse older infrastructure Table 34. Plausible roles under future scenarios.

Addressing the Functional Gaps under Scenarios 99 resources. Similarly, the plurality of approaches to managing transportation would lead to huge opportunities for experimentation and innovation. However, this in itself could be a challenge. Fuller (2002) in his analysis of radical decentralization in education that has occurred with the charter schools movement notes the “paradox of radical decentralization” (Fuller, 2002). The paradox is that, although decentralization allows innovation and experimentation, it can also cause groups to retreat into their parochial interests and become resistant to change. Thus, there is a vast set of innovations, but managers of new organizations have deep emotional commitment to practices and have the power and authority to resist change. In the Wonder World scenario, new technology will likely create opportunities for a much more dynamically managed system in which information and sensor technologies could pro- vide minute-by-minute management of factors that affect TBL. Simultaneously, technology and economic growth will deliver a high standard of living and numerous transportation and mobility options. In contrast, Green World represents a managed austerity condition. That is, the strength of the social commitment to TBL and green choices means that society has accepted environmental tradeoffs that may reduce or limit standards of living and strength of economy.8 It should be emphasized that Green World is based on the assumption that there is a broad social consensus around the idea of sustainability. However, this does not mean that all interests and stakeholders will automatically agree to how the costs and benefits of sustainability should be distributed. To date there has been no comprehensive assessment of the likely costs of introducing sustainability planning on a large scale. Most analyses present a uniformly positive assessment of benefits. However, these assessments frequently include some valuation of natural resources or other nonmarket goods. In reality, these benefits do not present themselves in a clear monetary fashion, and nontechnical individuals often have difficulty understanding how and why they have been monetized. Without these benefits, sustainability may not present as an appealing business case. Furthermore, it is inevitable that in some places, sustainability will require that some indi- viduals receive fewer benefits and higher costs than others. As basic economics tells us, scarcity is inevitable (i.e., everyone cannot have everything he or she wants), and choices must be made. These choices will benefit some stakeholders over others at least some of the time (e.g., perma- nent win–win solutions are not available all the time). For example, sustainability in Green World may mean that individuals cannot use personal gasoline vehicles in urban areas or expect state or local government to maintain roads to extremely low-density rural areas, discouraging suburban growth and large homes. Furthermore, considering the pluralist and open nature of American society, even a broad consensus will not be shared by some people. Undoubtedly some individuals would “drop out” of the sustainability consensus and insist that they have a right to continue to live in “pre-sustainable” outposts (e.g., use older, gasoline-powered vehicles; live in larger, less dense, car-based communities). Thus, even though the research team assumed broad support for sustain- ability under Green World, individual stakeholders will still need to be “sold” and persuaded as to the benefits of specific sustainability programs. As such, Green World may require substantial consensus-building efforts to develop support for specific sustainability measures. 6.3 Functional Implications under Each Scenario Table 35 shows key requirements for high-level transportation functions performed in a TBL society under the different scenarios—assuming that our society will eventually evolve to embrace TBL as an organizing principle. As can be seen, the basic functions need to be performed 8Green World is an example of a strong TBL policy system; a weak TBL is characterized by considering all three bottom lines (people, planet, profit) as more or less equal capital (Turner, 1992).

100 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies Scenario Response of Transportation Agencies DEVELOPING CONSENSUS ON NEEDS AND GOALS Crisis World Crisis driven—identify resources needed and work with experts and key stakeholders to identify key resources for sustainability Mega World Need new mechanisms to coordinate needs assessment and develop consensus on goals at a megaregional level Decisionmakers and stakeholders work proactively together, creating goals and plans to support transportation needs sustainably; developing consensus is a major goal; active outreach and consensus building Suburban World Radically decentralized society provides opportunities for public participation and direct democracy in decisionmaking Decisionmakers and stakeholders work proactively together, creating goals and plans to support transportation needs sustainably; developing consensus is a major goal; active outreach and consensus building Wonder World New technologies provide opportunities for public participation and direct democracy in decisionmaking Decisionmakers and stakeholders work proactively together, creating goals and plans to support transportation needs sustainably; developing consensus is a major goal; active outreach and consensus building Green World Decisionmakers and stakeholders work proactively together, creating goals and plans to support transportation needs sustainably; developing consensus is a major goal; active outreach and consensus building PLANNING AND PROGRAMMING Crisis World Focus on prioritizing key assets and developing policies to manage crisis and lead to sustainability Mega World Need to develop megaregional planning and programming mechanism with the authority to work with state and local governments to implement megaregional initiatives Emphasize flexibility, accessibility, connectivity, and quality (closer, better) Emphasize multimodal and connections between modes Manage transportation and mobility demand Emphasize integrated planning combining transportation (all modes) with other relevant areas (environment, demographic trends, cultural resources) and levels of government Use analysis to interrupt and reverse trends (predict and prevent) Work from preferred vision to planning and provision (deliberate and decide)— build scenarios, backcast, deliberate, and decide Flexible regional focus engages multiple jurisdictions Planning and investment decisions are driven by reliable and up-to-date data that reflects full range of impacts from investing in transportation Suburban World Need to develop mechanisms to coordinate decentralized programs Emphasize flexibility, accessibility, connectivity, and quality (closer, better) Emphasize multimodal and connections between modes Manage transportation and mobility demand Emphasize integrated planning combining transportation (all modes) with other relevant areas (environment, demographic trends, cultural resources) and levels of government Use analysis to interrupt and reverse trends (predict and prevent) Work from preferred vision to planning and provision (deliberate and decide)— build scenarios, backcast, deliberate, and decide Flexible regional focus engages multiple jurisdictions Planning and investment decisions are driven by reliable and up-to-date data that reflects full range of impacts from investing in transportation Table 35. Functional implications under each scenario.

Addressing the Functional Gaps under Scenarios 101 Table 35. (Continued). Scenario Response of Transportation Agencies Wonder World New technology provides the ability to model and design programs with much more accuracy and fidelity Emphasize flexibility, accessibility, connectivity, and quality (closer, better) Emphasize multimodal and connections between modes Manage transportation and mobility demand Emphasize integrated planning combining transportation (all modes) with other relevant areas (environment, demographic trends, cultural resources) and levels of government Use analysis to interrupt and reverse trends (predict and prevent) Work from preferred vision to planning and provision (deliberate and decide)— build scenarios, backcast, deliberate, and decide Flexible regional focus engages multiple jurisdictions Planning and investment decisions are driven by reliable and up-to-date data that reflects full range of impacts from investing in transportation Green World Emphasize flexibility, accessibility, connectivity, and quality (closer, better) Emphasize multimodal and connections between modes Manage transportation and mobility demand Emphasize integrated planning combining transportation (all modes) with other relevant areas (environment, demographic trends, cultural resources) and levels of government Use analysis to interrupt and reverse trends (predict and prevent) Work from preferred vision to planning and provision (deliberate and decide)— build scenarios, backcast, deliberate, and decide Flexible regional focus engages multiple jurisdictions Planning and investment decisions are driven by reliable and up-to-date data that reflects full range of impacts from investing in transportation BUDGETING AND RESOURCE ALLOCATION Crisis World Focus on prioritization and identifying and funding basic needs for sustainability Identify how noncore functions can be shifted to other partners Identify the ability of government to support the long-term cost of investments from a fiscal and TBL point of view Mega World Need to develop megaregional mechanisms to budget and fund interstate and interlocality megaregion-wide projects Use integrated and cooperative budget process Incorporate full social, environmental, fiscal, economic, and other costs into planning and provision—use full cost accounting Flexible—funds flow to program areas, regions, and modes, where they will make the biggest impact on societal sustainability Independence—consistent funds provided by dedicated transportation funds with long-term commitment to TBL priorities Suburban World Use integrated and cooperative budget process Incorporate full social, environmental, fiscal, economic, and other costs into planning and provision—use full cost accounting Flexible—funds flow to program areas, regions, and modes, where they will make the biggest impact on societal sustainability Independence—consistent funds provided by dedicated transportation funds with long-term commitment to TBL priorities Wonder World New technology provides ability to manage funding and track spending with much more accuracy and fidelity Use integrated and cooperative budget process Incorporate full social, environmental, fiscal, economic, and other costs into planning and provision—use full cost accounting Flexible—funds flow to program areas, regions, and modes, where they will make the biggest impact on societal sustainability Independence—consistent funds provided by dedicated transportation funds with long-term commitment to TBL priorities (continued on next page)

Scenario Response of Transportation Agencies Green World Use integrated and cooperative budget process Incorporate full social, environmental, fiscal, economic, and other costs into planning and provision—use full cost accounting Flexible—funds flow to program areas, regions, and modes, where they will make the biggest impact on societal sustainability Independence—consistent funds provided by dedicated transportation funds with long-term commitment to TBL priorities RULEMAKING AND REGULATION Crisis World Reduced public participation as a result of crisis situation and increased ad hoc regulation Mega World Public–expert partnership in developing regulation and rules—experts invite and encourage public participation Bias for flexible, voluntary regulation Open to a wide plurality of interests, stakeholders, and activists Involve public substantially during the entire rulemaking process Cooperative and consultative Emphasize voluntary regulation Suburban World Public–expert partnership in developing regulation and rules—experts invite and encourage public participation Bias for flexible, voluntary regulation Open to a wide plurality of interests, stakeholders, and activists Involve public substantially during the entire rulemaking process Cooperative and consultative Emphasize voluntary regulation Wonder World Public–expert partnership in developing regulation and rules—experts invite and encourage public participation Bias for flexible, voluntary regulation Open to a wide plurality of interests, stakeholders, and activists Involve public substantially during the entire rulemaking process Cooperative and consultative Emphasize voluntary regulation Green World Public–expert partnership in developing regulation and rules—experts invite and encourage public participation Strong regulatory system—clear tradeoffs between TBL Open to a wide plurality of interests, stakeholders, and activists Involve public substantially during the entire rulemaking process SERVICE AND PROJECT DELIVERY Crisis World Focus on limited service delivery, transferring nonkey functions to other entities Mega World Sustainability embedded in all business processes (e.g., procurement, O&M) Sustainability performance measured and reported for continual improvement Suburban World Sustainability embedded in all business processes (e.g., procurement, O&M) Sustainability performance measured and reported for continual improvement Wonder World New technology provides ability to manage programs and transportation events and trends in real time with much more accuracy and fidelity Sustainability embedded in all business processes (e.g., procurement, O&M) Sustainability performance measured and reported for continual improvement Green World Sustainability embedded in all business processes (e.g., procurement, O&M) Sustainability performance measured and reported for continual improvement COMPLIANCE AND DISPUTE RESOLUTION Crisis World Emergency decisionmaking—more hierarchical, less democratic Mega World Minimize politics Emphasize “deliberate and decide” Stronger compliance ethics, reducing disputes Suburban World Minimize politics Emphasize “deliberate and decide” Stronger compliance ethics, reducing disputes Wonder World Minimize politics Emphasize “deliberate and decide” Green World Minimize politics Emphasize “deliberate and decide” Stronger compliance ethics, reducing disputes Table 35. (Continued).

Addressing the Functional Gaps under Scenarios 103 to support the requirements of a TBL end state, regardless of the future scenario. The main effects the various scenarios will have on the high-level functions are that the opportunities and challenges presented to transportation (in performing the functions) will likely arise in distinctly different, scenario-specific ways along the following scenario features: • Political and demographic landscape and rate of change • Demand (and ability to pay) for available modal transportation services • Outlook for energy availability and cost • Pressure on the health of the environment • Age and health of infrastructure • Priorities and needs of society Scenario Response of Transportation Agencies INTERNAL EDUCATION, TRAINING, AND CULTURAL CHANGE Crisis World Internal education focus on crisis-related issues and development of a “survival sustainability” culture Mega World Focus on multidisciplinary workforce—acceptance of flexible standards Commit to sustainability education, training, and internal incentives to be sustainable Culture of sustainability and stewardship Performance standards and incentives associated with sustainability Suburban World Focus on multidisciplinary workforce—acceptance of flexible standards Commit to sustainability education, training, and internal incentives to be sustainable Culture of sustainability and stewardship Performance standards and incentives associated with sustainability Wonder World Focus on multidisciplinary workforce—acceptance of flexible standards Commit to sustainability education, training, and internal incentives to be sustainable Culture of sustainability and stewardship Performance standards and incentives associated with sustainability Green World Focus on multidisciplinary workforce—acceptance of flexible standards Commit to sustainability education, training, and internal incentives to be sustainable Culture of sustainability and stewardship Performance standards and incentives associated with sustainability OUTREACH AND COMMUNICATIONS Crisis World Focus on explaining to the public the rationale behind emergency measures, decommissioning, repair and rebuilding, and need to move toward sustainability Build support for initiatives and programs that require reduced mobility and fewer services Mega World Focus on explaining to the public the rationale for megaregional planning and the importance of dealing with issues outside the megaregion Suburban World Focus on explaining to the public the responsibilities of a rapidly decentralizing system and dealing with challenges of managing sustainability in a decentralized network Wonder World Focus on explaining to the public the rationale behind different technology selections and rebuilding transportation infrastructure to address new technology issues and sustainability Build support for initiatives and programs that require a move to new technologies and greater sustainability Green World Focus on explaining to the public the rationale behind green measures and rebuilding transportation infrastructure to address green issues and sustainability Build support for initiatives and programs that require reduced mobility to support sustainability Table 35. (Continued).

104 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies When TBL is assumed as an end state and the challenges are viewed holistically, several key themes and needs become clear. The following themes will play a large part in achieving and managing TBL: • Sustainability metrics and management systems. TBL requires the development of credible sustainability metrics and management systems to maintain a TBL policy system. There have been excellent advances in this area (most focused on environmental sustainability), but there is still no clear vision on what TBL systems would look like or how they could be widely applied and accepted as credible enough to drive major decisions or tradeoff solutions. • Public participation. Under any scenario (the likely exception may be Crisis World), a strong framework for communication, public participation, and outreach will be needed. TBL will require not only communication but also multisector engagement. Transportation agencies will need to consider building a stronger engagement framework around current needs development and planning processes to prepare for the evolution of a TBL policy system. • Prioritization and accounting for full costs. Total cost accounting will be a necessary feature in TBL to support realistic decisions in coming years. In fact, it is already a pressing need for agencies as they consider present-day sustainability investments and project or program risk sharing with the private sector. • Culture change. Agencies will need to facilitate internal culture change from traditional planning and transportation biases and (sometimes narrow) focus on environmental sustainability to TBL as a goal. Internal education, a clarified vision on long-term sustainability (and TBL) objectives, a “code of TBL ethics,” and celebration of TBL team and individual behavior may be good ways to begin a general culture change.