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83 As discussed in Section 2.2, changes in policy systems may occur in response to two types of changes: exogenous changes and endogenous changes. Exogenous changes largely result from shocks and from gradual changes over time. Endogenous changes result from social learning that occurs from feedback and from responses to external changes. This chapter focuses on how a changing external environment will create pressure on individual transportation agencies to change and how the agencies can best use these pressures to learn and to make changes toward a more sustainable system. Table 30 shows the main exogenous changes that will act on transportation agencies in each scenario. Table 31 shows how these will affect inputs (e.g., demand requirements and the resources available) into the system. Table 32 and Table 33 show the key challenges and opportunities this situation offers to the transportation agencies. First, there are as many problems or challenges in the positive scenarios as in the negative scenarios. Although there is a general perception that positive scenarios do not produce major problems, the analysis does not support this. For example, in Green World and Wonder World, transportation agencies face numerous problems, ranging from decommissioning nongreen infrastructure and transportation assets (Green World) to repeatedly managing the impacts of disruptive technologies (Wonder World). Second, not all scenarios will experience greater pressures for change. Crisis World and Wonder World may experience repeated shocks and acute events that provide an impetus for change, but the other scenarios will experience more gradual pressures for change, which may make it more difficult to develop a coalition for change. Third, the resources available in different scenarios vary greatly. In Crisis World, resources are severely constrained because of slow economic growth and multiple demands on resources to address recurring events. In contrast, resources in Wonder World and Green World are more available, but resource demands remain high because the public is also likely to expect more service and quality from the transportation system along with a higher standard of social well-being. The following sections discuss in detail each of these pressures for change, inputs, and challenges and opportunities. C H A P T E R 5 Future Challenges and Opportunities for Agencies
84 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies Table 30. Exogenous change of transportation agencies under different scenarios. Scenario Exogenous Changes (Shocks and Gradual Change) Crisis World Recurrent environmental crises that have dramatic negative impacts on transportation infrastructure Transportation dislocations (e.g., bridge and freeway interchange postings and closures) from lack of maintenance on transportation infrastructure Energy and resource price shocks leading to sudden dramatic increases in fuel prices Gradual, persistent long-term economic decline and slow growth Reduced federal spending, transfers to state and local government Reduced resources to support transportation needs Lack of technological progress Climate change, causing increased stress on the economy and environment Mega World No major shocks Gradual centralization to megaregions and megacities Suburban World No major shocks Gradual decentralization to suburbs and small towns Wonder World Recurrent disruptive technologies, causing dramatic changes to society and the economy Increasing population growth and greater diversity of population (more diverse ethnic population and aging population) Increasing economic and technological growth leading to greater demands for mobility of goods and people Green World Increasing population growth and greater diversity of population (more diverse ethnic population and aging population) Demand that all sectors of society become substantially greener Greater concentration of population in green urban areas Table 31. Demand and available resources under different scenarios. Scenario Demands and Resources Crisis World Maintain and expand mobility Afford multiple opportunities for public participation Support sustainability Address transportation-related impacts of recurrent environmental crises that have dramatic negative impacts on transportation infrastructure Address numerous transportation dislocations (e.g., bridge and freeway interchange postings and closures) from lack of maintenance on transportation infrastructure Respond to energy and resource price shocks by providing alternatives or subsidies Substantially reduced resources Dramatically reduced intergovernmental transfers Gas tax revenue does not keep up with requirements Mega World Maintain and expand mobility Afford multiple opportunities for public participation Support sustainability Shift resources to megaregions and megacities Gas tax revenue does not keep up with requirements Growth in user fees Suburban World Maintain and expand mobility Afford multiple opportunities for public participation Support sustainability Decentralization, leading to shift in resources to small towns and suburbs Gas tax revenue does not keep up with requirements Growth in user fees Wonder World Maintain and expand mobility Afford multiple opportunities for public participation Shift existing infrastructure and transportation systems toward more advanced technologies; respond to rapidly changing technology, including decommissioning older infrastructure Support wide variety of land use and settlement patterns permitted by technology Gas tax revenue does not keep up with requirements, but other resources are available Growth in user fees
Scenario Demands and Resources Green World Move to more sustainable TBL-focused transportation policy Maintain and expand mobility Afford multiple opportunities for public participation Shift existing infrastructure and transportation systems toward more green systems, including decommissioning older, nonsustainable infrastructure Shift of resources toward concentrated megacity areas Shift of resources away from less efficient, less sustainable, less dense area Gas tax revenue does not keep up with requirements, but other resources are available Growth in user fees Green taxes and other revenue sources that encourage sustainable behavior Table 31. (Continued). Table 32. Challenges under different scenarios. Scenario Challenges Crisis World Recurrent environmental crises that have dramatic negative impacts on transportation infrastructure; greater demands to maintain basic services Gradual, persistent, long-term economic decline and slow growth mean less resources available to achieve goals Reduced federal spending and transfers to state and local government mean greater inequality between regions Lack of technological progress reduces the likelihood of technological solutions Difficult to maintain all transportation facilities with constrained resourcesâneed to prioritize crucial assets The best assets that can be maintained and operated with user fees are privatized; agencies must make decisions to maintain or decommission the less-popular bus routes and low- demand bridges and roadways Limited resources to enforce traffic rules and user safety Difficulty maintaining funding (worsening economic growth) State government shrinks in response to declining revenues, resulting in fewer staff at transportation agencies Poor or missing information leads to bad decisions about funding priorities Different entities have different priorities, forcing the agency to make tradeoffs in deciding where to allocate limited funds Need for a process for decommissioning unsustainable infrastructure Mega World Gradual centralization to megaregions and megacities requires changing funding mechanisms and increasing spending on infrastructure Need to address social and economic equity impacts on the left-behinds outside megaregions (i.e., regions that are trapped in long-term decay and economic decline) Suburban World Gradual decentralization from megaregions and megacities requires changes in funding mechanisms Need to address social and economic equity impacts of the left-behinds in the cities (i.e., regions that are trapped in long-term decay and economic decline) Wonder World Recurrent disruptive technologies cause dramatic change to society and the economy Increasing population growth and greater diversity of population (more diverse ethnic population and aging population) Increasing economic and technological growth, leading to greater demand for mobility of goods and people Rapid technology innovations, leading to one region implementing a technology that quickly becomes outdated; technologies may not link across regions Some technologies may require new infrastructure (e.g., new right-of-way for smaller, lighter vehicles; AirTrain rapid transit; multijurisdictional management systems) Agency staff unable to keep up with technologies and needed changes New technologies require new standards and safety considerations Need for new transportation revenue sources as new sources of fuel and propulsion are used Green World Increasing population growth and greater diversity of population (more diverse ethnic population and aging population) Demand that all sectors of society become substantially greener Greater concentration of population in green urban areas results in need to address social and economic equity impacts on the left-behinds in less dense regions (i.e., regions where services are in long-term decay and where steady economic decline exists) Major decrease in personal vehicle travel, requiring agencies to provide sufficient alternatives for intracity and intercity travel Move away from carbon-based fuels requires new vehicles and new infrastructure
86 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies 5.1 Crisis World Crisis World is the scenario where acute events and transportation disasters are most likely to provide the shock necessary to provoke change. Potential impacts of such events are shown in Figure 12. In Crisis World, every part of the country will experience significant climate change, ranging from sea-level rise and increased storm surges that damage railroad tracks to severe temperature swings that damage bridge joints to flooding and drought (Committee on Climate Change and U.S. Transportation, 2008; this report provides a clear overview of the impacts of climate change and climate changeâinduced acute events on transportation). In terms of surface transportation, one of the major likely acute events that will affect trans- portation is more intense precipitation, leading to increased flooding of coastal roads and rail lines. Expected sea-level rise will exacerbate flooding because storm surges will build on a higher base, and reach farther inland. In fact, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report on North America identifies coastal inundation from expected sea-level rise and storm surges, especially along the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts, as one of the most serious effects of climate change. The Transportation Research Board (TRB) Climate Change Study projected that transportation infrastructure in some coastal areas along the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Coast will be permanently inundated sometime in the next century (Committee on Climate Change and U.S. Transportation, 2008). Low-lying bridge and tunnel entrances for roads, rail, and rail transit also will be more susceptible to flooding, and thousands of culverts may be too small to accommodate the flows. The resulting erosion and subsidence of road bases and rail beds, as well as erosion and scouring of bridge supports, will further disrupt transportation. The impact of coastal flooding is not limited to coastal areas. Record-breaking rainstorms inland also can cause major recurrent flood damage by swelling rivers and causing massive transportation outages. Equally, changes in seasonal precipitation levels, with more precipitation falling as rain than as snow, offer the potential for major acute events. For example, Californiaâs transporta- tion infrastructure could be sensitive to even modest changes in precipitation, whether liquid or frozen. But, when precipitation falls as rain rather than snow, it leads to immediate runoff, thus increasing the risk of floods, landslides, slope failures, and consequent damage to roadways, especially rural roadways, in the winter and spring months. In the wake of disasters such as those just described, there would be major demands for change. It is likely that federal, state, and local resources would be mobilized to deal with the immediate response and with the long-term rebuilding. However, in Crisis World, there are few resources to address the problems. Crisis World assumes that economic growth will be less than 2 percent over the entire period (barely large enough to keep up with population growth) and that the Scenario Opportunities Crisis World Crisis allows for local and regional response to problem Region-specific crisis effects increase need for regional, state, and local action and more flexibility Austerity forces transportation toward low-level sustainability, that is, reduction in the size of the network and focus on key sustainable elements Mega World Gradual centralization to megaregions and megacities means cities and regions have the resources to address problems Suburban World Gradual decentralization means cities and regions have the resources to address problems Wonder World Resources available to support expanding sustainability-based transportation system Technology facilitates new planning and participation mechanisms, real-time performance management, and control and flexible resource allocation Green World Widespread support for sustainability Green technologies will be developed that will support sustainability Table 33. Opportunities under different scenarios.
Northeast ⢠Extreme heat, declining air quality cause problems for human health ⢠Agricultural producon declines ⢠Severe flooding occurs more frequently. ⢠Winter tourism declines ⢠Fishing industry declines. Midwest ⢠Summer heat waves, reduced air quality, and increasing insect and waterborne diseases ⢠Increased precipitaon in winter and spring, more heavy downpours leading to both floods and water deficits ⢠Increases in heat waves, floods, droughts, insects, and weeds ⢠Nave species are very likely to face increasing threats Southwest ⢠Water supplies will become increasingly scarce ⢠Increasing temperature, drought, wildfire, and invasive species ⢠Increased frequency and altered ming of flooding ⢠Tourism and recreaon opportunies suffer ⢠Cies and agriculture face increasing risks from a changing climate Great Plains ⢠Increases in drought frequency ⢠Agriculture, ranching, and natural lands stressed by rising temperatures ⢠Climate change is likely to affect nave plant and animal species Northwest ⢠Reduced summer stream flows, straining water supplies. ⢠Increased insect outbreaks, wildfires, and changing species ⢠Salmon and coldwater species will experience stresses ⢠Sea-level rise along vulnerable coastlines will result in increased erosion and the loss of land Coasts ⢠Significant sea-level rise and storm surge will adversely affect coastal cies and ecosystems around the naon; low-lying and subsiding areas are most vulnerable ⢠More spring runoff and warmer coastal waters will increase the seasonal reducon in oxygen resulng from excess nitrogen from agriculture ⢠Higher water temperatures and ocean acidificaon due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide will present major addional stresses to coral reefs, resulng in significant die-offs and limited recovery ⢠Changing ocean currents will affect coastal ecosystems Source: Adapted from Committee on Climate Change and U.S. Transportation (2008). Figure 12. Impacts of 2î¸C increase in global temperature on the lower 48 states.
88 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies federal government, given fiscal constraints, gradually will reduce its role in transportation. Combined with a lack of technological progress and dramatic increases in resource prices, there will be limited resources to address these problems. Despite these problems, there still will be demands to maintain and expand mobility, support sustainability, address transportation-related impacts of recurrent disasters and acute events, and respond to transportation resource shortages. In fact, the seriousness of the crisis experienced would increase demands on the transportation policy system and require even more resources to be expended at a time when fewer resources are available. Against this background, the transportation policy system faces numerous challenges, which are easy to identify and innumerate: ⢠Recurrent environmental crises have dramatic negative impacts on transportation infrastructure. ⢠Gradual, persistent long-term economic decline and slow growth lead to fewer resources available to achieve goals. ⢠Reduced federal spending and transfers to state and local government mean greater inequality between regions and less ability for poor regions to resolve their problems. ⢠Lack of technological progress thus reduces the likelihood of technological solutions. Paradoxically, the depth of the crisis also may provide new opportunities, as follows: ⢠Acute events and disasters may provide the shocks that can drive federal, state, regional, and local governments to act. Public leadership may experience a Sputnik moment leading to a new consensus at all levels of government to address crises, adopt new policies, refocus financial support, and mobilize needed programs. ⢠Region-specific crisis effects increase need for regional, state, and local action and more flexibility. Forced to greater reliance on their own resources, regional, state, and local governments may find new ways to address problems; develop powerful statewide, regional, or local consensus behind action; and, by necessary relaxation of some federal requirements, may gain new flexibility and freedom to pursue new solutions. ⢠The prolonged austerity of this scenario and the occurrence of sudden shocks to the system may force the public and political leaders to accept the need to prioritize and focus efforts. A new low-level sustainability (e.g., reduce the size of the network, focus on key sustainable elements, reduce mobility, or transfer assets to user control) may emerge where people are willing to make the hard decisions to move ahead. 5.2 Mega World and Suburban World Mega World and Suburban World anticipate broadly similar futures. Economic growth, population change, and technological progress follow anticipated predicted patterns, and climate and environmental stress are relatively minor. Thus, there are no major shocks that are likely to shake the transportation policy system and require a major rethink of the fundamentals. Instead, there will be two different ongoing changes, which likely will produce very different demands and, therefore, different challenges and opportunities. In Mega World, the gradual and continuous concentration of the population and economic activity in the megaregions is likely to produce demands to focus more available national resources in these areas. With more than 95 percent of the population centered in these areas, federal, regional, state, and local governments all will be pulled to devote the bulk of their resources to these areas. This produces two major challenges: ⢠Gradual centralization to megaregions and megacities will require providing additional resources to these regions to support growth and new funding mechanisms to address multistate regional infrastructure investments.
Future Challenges and Opportunities for Agencies 89 ⢠Centralization will create a number of left-behind regions outside the megaregions that are trapped in long-term decay, economic decline, and depopulation crisis. This will create profound social and economic equity issues that must be addressed. However, as in Crisis World, Mega Worldâs problems also will create opportunities. Most significantly, the power and economic dynamism of the megaregions mean they will have the resources to address their problems. As noted in this report, the more economically dynamic cities and regions are leaders in sustainability and transportation services. They are experimenting with different kinds of programs, from user fees to congestion charges to integrated land use planning. As these regions grow in strength and wealth, they likely will be in an even better position to address these challenges and work toward increased sustainability. In contrast, Suburban World will experience the opposite trend. Gradual decentralization will lead to a renaissance in small towns, suburbs, and areas outside the megaregions. In this case, the major challenges will be as follows: ⢠Gradual decentralization from the megaregions and megacities will require changing funding mechanisms, building new infrastructure to support growing rural and small town populations, and developing a sustainable decentralized infrastructure. ⢠Social and economic equity issues will arise related to the impacts on the left-behinds in the cities and less affluent rural areas, small towns, and suburbs (i.e., regions that are trapped in long-term decay and economic decline). The equity issue is especially important; the teamâs analysis of sustainability experiences indicates that cities with few resources have not been leaders in sustainability. Thus, major economic hubs for the nation (as cities will remain important) may face huge problems in the future in financing sustainability. As in Mega World, Suburban World also may present considerable opportunities. For example, decentralization of cities and regions will mean that local government is extremely close to its citizens, which may make it easier to develop a consensus behind action and may lead to increased support for sustainability. In addition, the increase in the number of small towns and suburbs will create substantial opportunities for innovation, which in turn may lead to new projects and programs that have unforeseen benefits for sustainability. 5.3 Wonder World In Wonder World, one of the two positive scenarios, annual economic growth exceeds previous U.S. average growth since the 1860s (on average, slightly more than 3 percent annually), and there are numerous technology breakthroughs. The result is a society that is almost unrecognizable from that of the present day. Multiple disruptive technologies have changed the way people live. As a result, the transportation system has faced repeated demands to update technologies and to respond to user demands. This situation will lead to several challenges, including the following: ⢠Recurrent disruptive technologies cause dramatic and unanticipated changes to society and the economy. ⢠Increasing population growth and greater population diversity (more diverse ethnic population and aging population) lead to demands for more diverse transportation services (e.g., growing elderly population requiring assisted mobility). ⢠Rapid technology innovations may lead to one region implementing a technology that quickly becomes outdated. The technologies may not link across regions. ⢠Some technologies may require new infrastructure (e.g., new rights-of-way for smaller, lighter vehicles; AirTrain rapid transit; multijurisdictional management systems). ⢠Agency staff may have difficulty keeping up with the technologies and needed changes. ⢠New technologies may require new standards and safety considerations.
90 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies ⢠A need for new transportation revenue sources arises as new sources of fuel and propulsion are used. At the same time, new opportunities also will be created: ⢠Resources may be available to support an expanding sustainability-based transportation system. ⢠Technology will facilitate new planning and participation mechanisms, real-time performance management and control, and flexible resource allocation. A disruptive technology or disruptive innovation is a change that helps create a new market that eventually disrupts or destroys an existing market (Kurzweil, 2001a, 2005; Wu, 2010). The effect of the technology is to render an established technology obsolete, along with its associated industrial processes, plants, and supporting infrastructure and to usher in a period of âcreative destructionâ in which firms, workers, communities, and states must adapt if they are to continue to play a role in the new technology. Classic examples of disruptive technologies include the automobile, which displaced the horse and railroad as the dominant means of transportation; the microcomputer, which displaced the mainframe and other calculating machines; and digital photography, which displaced chemical photographic film. The defining characteristic of disruptive technologies is that they are not a gradual improvement but rather a radical change in system performance and operations. They initially may appear to have a relatively limited impact, but if a disruptive technology is widely adopted, it can impact or create entirely new markets and ways of life and totally transform society. The Internet, for example, initially was a way to exchange scientific data, but it has since changed society beyond what any of its founders could have imagined. Similarly, the automobile totally reconfigured society between the time of its emergence in the late 19th century and the mid-20th century. The U.S. transportation system has gone through a series of waves with a peak and then a major paradigm shift caused by the emergence of new disruptive technologies (e.g., canal development, steamships, steam locomotives, and the automobile). In the past, disruptive technologies required many decades to change society. However, the past few decades have seen a vast increase in the speed of innovation and a tremendous decrease in the time between the development of a new technology and its acceptance and use by society as a whole. For example, Kurzweilâs (2001a) analysis of technological change concludes that technological progress follows a pattern of exponential growth, what he calls âthe law of accel- erating returns.â He theorizes that other technologies will benefit from and follow the pattern of growth acceleration experienced by integrated circuits predicted by Mooreâs law.6 Thus, as information technology becomes omnipresent, its benefits affect more and more elements of society. Furthermore, applying expanding computer power to persistent challenges means that these problems can quickly be resolved. For example, expanded computing power can lead to the development of new materials or new ways of manufacturing materials to higher and higher tolerances, thus improving performance in many industrial applications. Kurzweil argues that technological progress is increasing so quickly that a time is approaching in which society experiences âtechnological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human historyâ (Kurzweil, 2001a). He believes that the singularity (when artifi- cial intelligence, biotechnology, and nanotechnology fuse to create a self-sustaining, continuous burst of dramatic innovation) could occur before the end of the 21st century, estimating the date at 2045 (Kurzweil, 2005). 6 Mooreâs law describes geometric growth in integrated semiconductor complexity. It predicts that the processing powers of a single chip will double every 18 to 24 months.
Future Challenges and Opportunities for Agencies 91 Even if one does not accept Kurzweilâs vision, there are ample opportunities for major disruptive technologies to emerge between now and 2050, such as the following: ⢠Development of new alternative fuels or power systems (e.g., vehicle-to-grid electric cars,7 as-yet unknown biotech-developed super-fuels) and carbon-neutral fuels (i.e., fuels that remove GHG from the atmosphere) ⢠Development of new freight and delivery systems (e.g., short-distance airborne delivery drones, small airborne vehicles that automatically deliver small high-value payloads) ⢠At-home customized manufacturing using three-dimensional printers to create most simple items in peopleâs homes rather than having them manufactured elsewhere and delivered ⢠Vastly improved telepresence and telesubstitution systems (e.g., real-time, three-dimensional, full-immersion virtual projection, where the differences between in-person and virtual inter- actions nearly disappear) ⢠Nanotech-driven smart materials in vehicles and infrastructure that monitor their condition and automatically identify and fix problems ⢠Molecule-level computing and telecommunications that can operate transportation systems and subsystems ⢠Carbon-based nanotubes as hydrogen carriers for fuel cells ⢠Nanotech flash capacitors large enough to replace slow-charging electric-vehicle batteries The challenge of disruptive technologies is that they are not apparent at first sight. Normally, multiple contenders appear when a current technology encounters a systems break (i.e., a point beyond which efforts to improve performance have diminishing returns). For example, the early 20th century saw the development of steam, electric, and internal combustion vehicles, and it was difficult at that time to determine which would triumph. Similarly, high-definition video saw the development of several formats; videotape had two formats; and, initially, television saw a conflict between mechanical television and electronic television (Wu, 2010). Furthermore, it is unclear how the new technology will be used and adopted. For example, in the early days of radio, the future of broadcasting was seen as belonging to small, decentralized local and regional networks. However, within 10 years, the broadcast system was dominated by two major national networks (Wu, 2010). Disruptive technologies related to transportation normally require extensive response and support from public policy makers. For example, decisions must be made about how to integrate the new technologies into the current transportation system, what standards will be used, to what degree the infrastructure must be modified, and how these technologies affect current plans and revenue projections. This is the challenging aspect of disruptive transportation technologies. In Wonder World, numerous disruptive technologies would crowd the stage, demanding action and requiring that public policy makers make bets on highly uncertain and unpredictable tech- nological futures. This also has the potential drawback of having the government play a role in picking the winners and losers. Furthermore, the speed of technological advance might be such that the moment one innovation is integrated into the system, another equally disruptive technology emerges. This rapid technological advance could lead to a paradox whereby the very success of the technological and economic system provides individuals and firms with the resources to develop and adopt technologies but provides insufficient resources for transportation agencies to develop and implement responses. The result may be a disjointed, uneven system that fails to deliver the full benefits of new technologies and makes sustainability planning extremely difficult. 7 Vehicle-to-grid describes a system in which plug-in electric vehicles communicate with the power grid to sell demand- response services by either delivering electricity into the grid or by throttling their charging rate. Vehicle-to-grid can be used with plug-in battery electric cars and hybrids with grid capacity. Because most vehicles are parked an average of 95 percent of the time, their batteries could be used to let electricity flow from the car to the power lines and back, with a value to the utilities of up to $4,000 per year per car.
92 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies 5.4 Green World Green World assumes a radical social shift in favor of a green and sustainable future. Although at first sight this scenario may seem extremely positive, it will produce many pressures for change. Most significantly, it will require whole-scale replacement and redesign of the current transporta- tion infrastructure to meet the new demands and expectations for sustainability. As individuals move into more concentrated sustainable communities (probably in urban areas), there will be massive demand for transportation, which in turn will lead to new transportation requirements. Thus, in Green World, as in Wonder World, almost as many challenges will arise from success as would arise from negative events in Crisis World. For example, there may be dozens of different options for new green technologies that require extensive infrastructure reconfiguration and no obvious winner. Similarly, decommissioning, reorienting, or redesigning gray infrastructure to meet the demands of new green public preferences may present considerable challenges to transportation agencies. Specific challenges associated with Green World include the following: ⢠Increasing population growth and greater diversity of population (more diverse ethnic popu- lation and aging population) lead to demands for much more diverse transportation services (e.g., increasing elderly population requiring assisted mobility). ⢠There is a demand that all sectors of society become substantially greener. ⢠Greater concentration of population in green urban areas leads to a need to address equity impacts of the left-behinds in less dense regions (i.e., regions that are trapped in long-term decay and economic decline). ⢠Major decreases in personal vehicle travel mean that agencies must provide sufficient alternatives for intracity and intercity travel. ⢠Moving away from carbon-based fuels may require new vehicles and new infrastructure. Opportunities in Green World will include the following: ⢠Social and political consensus on green policies and sustainability mean that resources will be available to support an expanding sustainability-based transportation system. ⢠Technology will facilitate new planning and participation mechanisms, real-time performance management and control, and flexible resource allocation. ⢠Green technology will support sustainable transportation.
