Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 4: Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies (2014)

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73 Using the approach described in the previous chapter, the research team developed five scenarios: Crisis World, Mega World, Suburban World, Wonder World, and Green World. In developing these scenarios, the research team made the following key assumptions with the identified caveats and limitations: C H A P T E R 4 Description of Scenarios • All scenarios assume that there will be no major international war involving the United States, social or economic collapse, or technological singularity [i.e., extremely rapid convergence of technologies leading to a huge acceleration of technological progress and economic growth; for a full description of what is envisioned under a “singular- ity” scenario, see Garrean (2005) and Kurtzweil (2005)]. • All scenarios include some reference to major economic and social trends (e.g., population, economy) and follow anticipated trends with minor variations. In these cases, the research team used simple projections to portray the future direction of events. The scenarios vary from each other by using other drivers, including environ- mental change, fuel prices, social/cultural choices, market and individual responses, and technological change. • Scenarios are not simply driven by technology. Technology will play an important part in the future of the U.S. transportation system, but many factors will affect the rate of technology adoption and how current and future technologies are integrated into future transportation systems. As a result, the research team included low-adoption and high-adoption technology scenarios. • No single scenario will happen everywhere across the country in the same way. There will always be variations and differences—some areas, even in the most negative sce- narios, will experience extremely positive futures; some areas in positive scenarios will experience extremely negative futures. • Scenarios should reflect a variety of different situations that are sufficiently dissimilar to be able to show meaningful variances. As a result, the research team includes a less-than- credible scenario (i.e., Crisis World) to contrast the different potential outcomes. • Scenarios focus on implications for transportation systems, organizing principles for state DOTs, and challenges and opportunities for state transportation agencies. • Scenarios emphasize challenges and opportunities to all dimensions of sustainability— environmental, economic, and social/cultural. • Scenarios are not intended to make political assumptions or policy recommenda- tions. These descriptions attempt only to convey plausible business environments for transportation agencies.

74 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies In terms of negative scenarios, the research team developed a very negative scenario, Crisis World, in which slow economic growth, rapid environmental degradation, and slow technology improvement combine to create a world where the United States faces a series of crises that place considerable stress on the transportation system and the ability of state transportation agencies to meet basic transportation needs. The research team developed two mid-range scenarios: Mega World and Suburban World. Mega World is essentially a continuation of current trends. Population and the economy grow as anticipated by most mainstream analysts, and technology improves in a predictable manner. Environmental change and resource use are manageable, and there are gradual manageable improvements in environmental conditions and resource use. The main difference between this scenario and the other mid-range scenario, Suburban World, is that population becomes increasingly concentrated in megaregions, creating major problems for governance and inter- governmental coordination. Suburban World is identical to Mega World in every respect except for the distribution of population. Under Suburban World, technological and sociocultural changes allow the population to become more evenly distributed. Small towns and mid-range cities grow, and suburban and exurban areas around cities continue to grow. As a result, there is a rural renaissance during which the United States comes to resemble the early 20th century in terms of population distribution. The research team identified two positive scenarios: Wonder World and Green World. In Wonder World, technological change is rapid and produces dramatic economic growth. The United States remains a dynamic, fast-growing country with a diverse, youthful population from immigration. Environmental stressors are minor and are easily dealt with by technology and abundant resources. The major challenge that state transportation agencies face is keeping up with technological change and managing the transitions to new forms of mobility. In Green World, there is a fundamental reorganization of society toward a more sustainable and environmentally benign form of operation. Spurred by new green technology, the economy grows rapidly while dramatically reducing environmental and resource stressors. Population is decen- tralized into relatively small communities and highly centralized urban cores. State transportation agencies face considerable challenges in transitioning the existing transportation systems to a more sustainable system but are assisted by a public that eagerly supports the greening of infrastructure. In the following sections, the research team summarizes key drivers for each scenario and provides scenario stories that dramatize the situations, providing background and helping readers grasp the world and the opportunities and challenges for state transportation agencies. As noted previously, for more detail on the drivers and the assumptions used to develop these scenarios, see Appendix A. 4.1 Crisis World Crisis World, the most pessimistic scenario the research team developed, is a world undergoing a persistent, recurrent, multidimensional crisis (see Table 25). Under this scenario, environmen- tal crises and resource depletion are occurring much sooner and more quickly than currently anticipated, while the United States is trapped in an unrelenting, ongoing economic recession where growth rarely rises above 2 percent. As a result, the United States is under considerable stress and lacks the resources to respond to the challenges it encounters. The stresses and strains of the Crisis World scenario lead people to begin to change how they live and to move to more sustainable ways of living in response to environmental and economic crises and rapidly increasing resource prices. In the public sphere, these trends and the seriousness of these problems lead to a new public commitment toward sustainability and toward creating transportation systems that support a sustainable society.

Description of Scenarios 75 Scenario Story—How the World Might Change: Crisis World After the financial crisis of 2008, the initial optimism for a 2012–2013 recovery stalls. The U.S. economy fails to recover to its previous dynamism. As analysts debate the causes of the so-called “Long Recession of 2010 to 2050,” debt overhangs, long-term structural deficits, dramatic increases in resource prices, and a collapse in global demand all contribute to the depth and magnitude of the recession. Oil is not the only resource to approach peak output; minerals such as copper, magnesium, iron, and rare-earth minerals vital for modern life also experience rapid price increases. In addition, energy-intensive fertilization and mono-crop cultivation lead to rapid depletion of topsoils, while energy prices make extensive irrigation cost prohibitive. Throughout the entire period, economic growth barely reaches 2 percent, leading to persistent, long-term unemployment and a collapse of living standards in many areas. One result is that state and local governments lack the resources to address the growing challenges they face and are forced to rely on the increasingly overburdened federal government for relief. Conditions worsen substantially due to growing indicators of rapid global change. The Great Storms of 2018 hit numerous U.S. coastal cities along the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Coast, leading to major disasters that overwhelm the ability of state and local governments to respond and causing major damage to private property and infrastructure. Early melts of snow packs and winter rains lead to floods throughout the West and Midwest on a recurrent basis. At the same time, long droughts in the Central Plains lead to declining yields, a collapse in agriculture in the Southern High Plains, and a decline of many cities in drought areas. More rapid exhaustion of the Ogallala Aquifer, combined with increasing fuel prices to operate irrigation systems, leads to a return to dry land farming in southern Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, while the increasing number of wind- storms and the higher wind speeds cause soil loss in agricultural areas and reduce soil moisture. The Pacific Northwest, already dealing with the onset of new climatic patterns and severe storms, also experience climate refugees as the economy of the Southwest and southern California Driver* Description Population Low economic growth and recurrent crisis leads to slow population growth— 399 million. Economic Growth From 2020, GDP falls by 8% over the next 30 years under the low-growth projected case. Spending on transportation for federal, state, and local governments stays at the historic average of just under 2% of GDP. Climate Change, Environment, and Resource Use Dramatic, worse-than-expected climate change occurs—multiple acute† events (e.g., floods, heat waves, worsening hurricanes, and storm surges). Major resource shortages—gas prices are in excess of $9/gallon for long periods with huge fluctuations in price. Petroleum and other carbon fuel remain important sources of energy. Transportation Transportation technology does not deliver—no major breakthroughs; new transportation technologies remain too costly for widespread adoption. MPO and megaregional organization dominate transportation planning and management. Federal government highly involved in emergency resources. Land Use and Distribution of Population Population concentrated in megaregions. Mix of megacities and suburban sprawl continue. * For the tables in this section, several drivers have been collapsed into a smaller number of drivers [e.g., “transportation” includes transportation technology (vehicles and infrastructure) and potential organization of transportation agencies] in order to facilitate discussion. † An “acute event” is a sudden, unplanned, negative event that can cause serious harm to human health; the environment; economic resources; or items of historical, cultural, or social value. Table 25. Scenario drivers—Crisis World.

76 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies collapse, leading to mass migrations. Arizona, southern California, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah all face major water shortages during record heat waves, major wildfires, and dust storms [see Morello (2010)]. By 2040, global temperature has increased, leading to periods of dramatic temperature instability and the first clear indicators of the collapse of the Greenland Ice Shelf. Simultaneously, the United States and other Northern Hemisphere countries experience a dramatic rise in sea level, leading to flooding of major coastal cities and the loss of significant coastal infrastructure (e.g., subways, rails, sewer systems, bridges, roads, ports, and shipping systems). In response, skyrocketing insurance and reinsurance costs further retard economic growth, creating more economic turmoil and increasing business and consumer costs. Even for those areas not affected by sea-level rise, increasing fuel prices make it cost prohibitive to heat homes and work in the long, deeper winters. The more intense storm season stresses the abilities of many families and communities to maintain their standard of living and hopes for a better life. In terms of transportation technology, the hopes of the early part of the 21st century do not materialize. Slow economic growth and a lack of public investment in new technologies mean that only relatively wealthy communities adopt the technologies and only a few individuals adopt new automobile technologies. Furthermore, increases in the price of rare-earth elements and an embargo of rare-earth elements in 2040 end substantial investment in electric-vehicle technologies [for more on the issue of rare-earth elements and the U.S. dependence on foreign oil, see Ngai (2010)]. As a result, despite rising petroleum prices, Americans remain committed to their automobiles and a carbon-based economy. In terms of transportation, the increase in petroleum prices (rising to more than $9 per gallon in 2010 dollars with massive fluctuations) makes private automobiles a thing of the past. Families move closer to cities to avoid the increasing costs of mobility. Commuting costs increase dramatically, deeply affecting home values in all areas and creating more economic problems. Increased transportation costs for almost all goods lead to spiraling price increases, the end of just-in-time delivery-and-distribution systems, and further declines in global trade. Long-distance travel of personal vehicles on interstate highways is beyond the reach of most individuals, increas- ingly being reserved for freight. Increases in fuel costs mean that air transportation is available only for the very rich. Most people travel by train or bus when they have to travel between cities. In terms of institutional and governance issues, political paralysis in the face of massive, long- term, structural federal deficits severely limits the federal government’s freedom and ability to act and help state and local governments. Low growth, combined with uncontrolled federal spending, leads to massive deficits and a crowding out of the private sector from the capital markets. Even without the additional spending caused by emergencies related to climate change, the federal deficit would reach staggering levels of more than 340 percent of GDP by 2050 (U. S. Congressional Budget Office, 2010). With the additional spending on new seawalls, flood barriers, and relocation of infrastructure, deficits become ever higher. As a result, the federal government increasingly withdraws from its transportation and many other responsibilities and increasingly focuses on the national crisis. The transportation infrastructure falls into rapid decline as state and local governments make hard choices to prioritize only the surface transportation systems required for commerce and economic viability. In many areas, there is ad hoc, unplanned privatization, as state and local governments shift assets to the private sector in an effort to reduce operations and maintenance (O&M) costs and focus on essential assets. Within urban areas, state and local governments are increasingly unable to maintain infra- structure. Bridge closures, poorly maintained roads and highways, and failing public transit systems increase congestion to record levels, leading to reduced demand in many cities. With- out federal support, states and localities accelerate the move toward self-financing policies.

Description of Scenarios 77 However, after promising starts, rapid increases in the price of fuel lead to public protests against congestion pricing, which in turn lead to a general rollback in congestion pricing and even to the reduction or abolition of the gas tax in some states. As a result, only a few cities are able to retain congestion-pricing policies. As the period progresses, there is a general move toward uncontrolled privatization, with many wealthy individuals buying their way out of congestion by using private roads. By 2030, it is not uncommon for transportation assets in wealthier areas of cities and suburbs to be owned entirely by local homeowners associations, with their operation contracted out to private surface transportation management companies. In other parts of cities and in poorer suburbs (where lower-income families are increasingly found), there are fewer and fewer transportation options as state and local transportation agencies increasingly focus on providing only crucial transportation links. As with the privatized system, state and local governments contract out operations to privatized transportation O&M, focusing instead on planning, decisionmaking, and oversight. At the same time in rural areas, the ongoing recession and the collapse of local revenue bases lead to the collapse of rural infrastructure and further economic decline. As a result, transportation systems in many rural areas collapse to almost pre-industrial levels or shift responsibility to a mix of local transportation companies, transportation cooperatives, or single individuals or companies that are prepared to take over O&M of surface transportation systems. The situation is worsened by the U.S. population’s rapid aging. The declines in immigration mean that the U.S. population is considerably older but without the benefits of younger immigrants to help support that aging population. The increasing dependency ratio means that individuals are working longer as social security and long-term medical-care benefits are cut to deal with more immediate needs. Older Americans increasingly work from home and rely on ride shares and shared drivers to meet their transportation needs. However, there are signs of hope. The Internet (for telecommuting, entertainment, delivery effi- ciencies, coordination of commuting, shopping, and more) becomes more important. Although cheap consumer goods and the consumer society are things of the past, increasing energy costs mean an end of outsourcing and energy-intensive farming. Local operations similar to eBay and Craigslist develop, and other swap–sell–share online markets, swap meets, local markets, and buy- and-share groups become common. Communities become smaller, with work, home, and shop- ping centers all located within a short distance of each other (walking-distance centralization wins out over driving-distance centralization), and the community general store makes a comeback. In some cases, this is the result of planned rezoning; in other cases, the pace and pressure of change causes local zoning systems to break down altogether, as enterprising households convert their now-too-big homes into corner stores. Low-energy handcrafts, community gardens, small for- profit plots, bicycles, community cooperation, and friend and church networks increase in value and practical utility, leading many people to claim that bottom-up sustainability is breaking out throughout the United States. 4.2 Mega World Mega World is one of two as-expected scenarios (the other is Suburban World) (see Table 26). Under both Mega World and Suburban World scenarios, the future of the United States is viewed as the continuation of current trends. Economic and population growth are anticipated to be in the most-likely projected range, technology is anticipated to develop along all anticipated paths, and there is a slow adoption of new transportation funding mechanisms. The main dif- ference between Mega World and Suburban World is that, under Mega World, the population is increasingly concentrated into 10 major megaregions. Within these megaregions, there is a

78 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies general tendency toward urban concentration and mixed land use; in Suburban World, there is a more decentralized society. Scenario Story—How the World Might Change: Mega World After the challenges of the first decade of the 21st century, the next 40 years are relatively quiet for the United States and are recognized as a period of slow but steady improvement in the lives of the American people. Major economic problems, such as the growing federal deficit, are gradually brought under control, and the inherent dynamism of the U.S. economy reasserts itself as the country grows apace with its major international rivals in the advanced economies. Environmental problems remain manageable and within the predicted range, and population grows gradually, with the U.S. population increasing by more than 100 million from 2000 to 2050. Technology follows anticipated patterns, with gradual adoption of major technological changes. By 2050, there are many automatic, guideway, and connected-vehicle systems along major roads, and self-drive cars are common (but by no means universal). Very-low-emission vehicles, electric cars, and intercity high-speed trains are common, and the country is gradually weaning itself away from its dependence on carbon fuels. The most striking change is the emergence of megaregions. By 2050, more than 95 percent of all Americans live in these massive urban areas. Although they are not megacities, because there are low-density neighborhoods and cities throughout the megaregions, the 10 population centers dominate the United States. The result is a move toward regional planning and control for many state and local functions. The federal government takes the lead in establishing the intercity and interstate pacts, where new integrated transportation, environment, and economic development authorities form out of the confusing existing pattern to create a more rational and comprehensive planning and decisionmaking structure. 4.3 Suburban World Suburban World is the second of two as-expected scenarios (the other is Mega World). Under Suburban World (see Table 27), the future of the United States is viewed as the continuation of current trends. Economic and population growth are anticipated to be in the most-likely Driver Description Population Population continues to follow current tendencies, with population concentrated in megaregions—population reaches 419 million. Economic Growth Real GDP increases by 2.4% per year. Spending on transportation for federal, state, and local governments stays at the historic average of just under 2% of GDP. Climate Change, Environment, and Resource Use Climate change is slow and predictable. No major resource shortages or environmental crisis. Petroleum and other carbon fuel remain important sources of energy. Transportation Transportation technology develops along predictable paths—no breakout, dramatic breakthrough. State and local government agencies dominate transportation policy planning and implementation. Land Use and Distribution of Population Consolidation of spreading urban and suburban complexes with high- density developing around transportation nodes. Major city densities would reach some equilibrium, and overall density of the megaregion would increase. Table 26. Scenario drivers—Mega World.

Description of Scenarios 79 projected range, technology is anticipated to develop along all anticipated paths, and there is slow adoption of new transportation funding mechanisms. However, unlike Mega World, technology allows people to live in a variety of settings that best suit their preferences (in the 20th century, these preferences were clearly toward greater decentralization). As a result, there is a generalized move to the suburbs, small towns, and second-tier cities, leading to an America that resembles that of the early 20th century, with a more decentralized population. Scenario Story—How the World Might Change: Suburban World During the first half of the 21st century, technology and vibrant economic growth lead to gradual decentralization of America and a return to a settlement and land use pattern similar to that of the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Specifically, economic growth, decentralization of governmental powers as the federal government focuses its activities on its core responsi- bilities, and technological developments that favor decentralization lead to a United States in which suburbs, small towns, rural areas, and second-tier cities return to predominance. While large cities, such as New York and Los Angeles, remain important, population growth is increasingly seen in smaller cities and rural areas as people take advantage of the freedom technology gives them to live and work in quieter, slower places. Specifically, technology leads to many people working at home or in small facilities near their home. Goods are delivered to central pickup points and then transferred to individual homes via energy-efficient small vehicles. Simultaneously, the increase in fuel prices leads to a decrease in travel and mobility, with most people staying closer to their homes and rarely traveling to other cities or regions in person, and to an increase in people taking advantage of telepresence and virtual reality to experience other places. In terms of transportation, technology follows anticipated patterns, with gradual adoption of major technological changes so that, by 2050, there are many automatic, guideway, and connected- vehicle systems along major roads, and self-drive cars are common (but by no means universal). Very-low-emission vehicles, electric cars, and intercity high-speed trains are common, and the country is gradually weaning itself away from its dependence on carbon fuels. Planning and decisionmaking in the transportation space gradually become decentralized down to the local and sub-state regional authorities. State transportation agencies are increasingly hollowed out as responsibilities, funding, and personnel are left to local and sub-state regional Driver Description Population Population continues to follow current tendencies, with population concentrated in megaregions—population reaches 419 million. Economic Growth Real GDP increases by 2.4% per year. Spending on transportation for federal, state, and local governments stays at the historic average of just under 2% of GDP. Climate Change, Environment, and Resource Use Climate change is slow and predictable. No major resource shortages or environmental crisis. Petroleum and other carbon fuel remain important sources of energy. Transportation Transportation technology develops along predictable paths—no breakout, dramatic breakthrough to provide a shock to which the system would need to adapt quickly. State and local government agencies dominate transportation policy planning and implementation. Land Use and Distribution of Population Population continues to follow current tendencies, with population concentrated in megaregions but distributed in regions at lower average density than Mega World—population reaches 419 million. Table 27. Scenario drivers—Suburban World.

80 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies governments. These governments, closer to and more representative of the people, are able to develop clear consensuses about user fees and pay-for-use transportation systems. As a result, these authorities dominate the transportation landscape and make most of the planning decisions. Within this system, there is a general move toward privatization, as local and regional governments attempt to reduce their operating costs by focusing on planning, decisionmaking, and overseeing and contracting out O&M responsibilities for transportation. Gradually, market forces lead to the development of common standards for operation of most surface transportation systems, which leads to a small number of major transportation management companies dominating the transportation market and competing for local transportation business. 4.4 Wonder World Wonder World is the first of two positive scenarios (the other is Green World) (see Table 28). Under this scenario, there is better-than-currently-expected economic growth and technology development, and adoption is more rapid than currently anticipated. Environmental challenges remain manageable, and population grows rapidly. Although resource prices increase dramatically, the pace of technology improvement and adoption reduces U.S. dependence on many resources as substitutes are found. The spread of new technology and the dynamic state of the U.S. economy mean there is a generalized decentralization of the economy as people use their wealth and the freedom technology brings to live where they choose. Scenario Story—How the World Might Change: Wonder World The first half of the 21st century is a period of rapid social, economic, and technological change for the United States. Spurred by dramatic changes in technology in virtually every area, the U.S. economy experiences the Super Boom, a period of more than 40 years of dramatic economic growth. During that period, the U.S. economy doubles in size more than three times, creating a country that is almost unrecognizable by the end of the period from that which had been envisioned in 2000. Super-efficient electrical engines, new biotech fuels, carbon-negative fuels, room-temperature superconductors, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, and new wonder drugs transform society. New medical technologies enable people to live longer healthier lives, Driver Description Population Better-than-expected economic growth causes increase in net immigration—population rises to 458 million. Economic Growth Real GDP increases by 3.5% per year. Spending on transportation for federal, state, and local governments stays at the historic average of just under 2% of GDP. Climate Change, Environment, and Resource Use Climate change is slow and predictable. No major resource shortages or environmental crisis. Petroleum and other carbon fuel remain important sources of energy, but alternative sources are rapidly emerging. By 2050, the price of a gallon of gasoline is more than $7, forcing further innovation and changes in travel behavior. Transportation Radical new technologies are introduced that revolutionize transportation. MPOs and megaregional organizations dominate transportation policy planning and implementation. Land Use and Distribution of Population Population is concentrated in megaregions. Mix of megacities and suburban sprawl continue. Table 28. Scenario drivers—Wonder World.

Description of Scenarios 81 such that despite the aging population, people remained active, working and using transportation well into their 80s. Carbon fuels still play an important role in the economy, but they are being rapidly phased out for more carbon-neutral modes (e.g., fusion and super-efficient solar for electrical power generation, super-fuels for automobiles). For example, carbon-capturing bioengineered algae are used in coal plants to produce biofuel feedstocks, and advanced nanotubes and nonfibers are used to absorb carbon emissions on a massive scale throughout industrial complexes (American Institute of Biological Sciences, 2010). Safer nuclear technology, an emerging fusion power system, and high-generation-capacity wave, solar, geothermal, and wind power provide significant parts of the nation’s energy. For transportation, the dramatic growth in the economy and technology give people a range of choices of where and how to live. Small towns, rural areas, and urban cores all boom. New types of smart suburbs emerge that integrate intelligent transportation technologies with Smart Growth land use strategies. Guideways, intelligent vehicles, super-efficient drive trains, and new fuel sources are nearly universal. Travel between cities is via super-efficient maglevs and other high-speed trains. Freight experiences a major mode shift from road to high-efficiency rail. In cities, smart multimodal systems are common and heavily used. Many people work from home (in smart homes that carefully control carbon emissions) and operate machinery or perform other complex tasks remotely via telepresence systems. Intelligent machines perform many tasks that previously demanded substantial human involvement, thus reducing labor, materials, and energy costs. 4.5 Green World Green World is another mostly positive scenario (Table 29). Under this scenario, there is rapid economic growth, technology development and adoption, and population growth. However, there is a broad social and political consensus to move toward a more sustainable, green society. As a result, there is substantial investment in green technologies and infrastructure and a movement to a greener, sustainable environment. Despite the apparently benign sound of this scenario, there is substantial regulation and greater social and economic control. Many personal goals and aspirations are limited by the effort to make society greener and more sustainable. Driver Description Population Better-than-expected economic growth causes increase in net immigration—population rises to 458 million. Economic Growth Real GDP increases by 3.5% per year. Spending on transportation for federal, state, and local governments stays at the historic average of just under 2% of GDP. Climate Change, Environment, and Resource Use Climate change is slow and predictable. No major resource shortages or environmental crisis. Petroleum and other carbon fuel remain important sources of energy, but alternative sources are rapidly emerging. By 2050, the price of a gallon of gasoline is more than $7, forcing further innovation and changes in travel behavior. Transportation Radical new technologies are introduced that revolutionize transportation. MPOs and megaregional organizations dominate transportation policy planning and implementation. Land Use and Distribution of Population Population is concentrated in megacities and high-density urban areas. Table 29. Scenario drivers—Green World.

82 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies Scenario Story—How the World Might Change: Green World The first half of the 21st century sees development of a broad social and political consensus on the need to develop a sustainable society. Consumer choice and public decisions push investment into green technologies, which leads to the development of an entire suite of green technologies by 2050. The rapid economic growth that this green-revolution creates supports a major social and economic shift toward a new and sustainable society. One of the most obvious results is the collapse of the suburbs. By 2050, few suburbs remain; families generally live in dense, urban developments. These emerging complexes are enormous habitats of extremely high human population density, containing a variety of residential, commercial, and agricultural facilities that minimize individual human environmental impact. In some cases, they are almost self-contained or economically self-sufficient, where work, life, and even food production are concentrated. At the same time, outside the urban cores, automation reduces the number of individuals and families living in rural areas. Huge biofuel farms are managed by a single family, and food production is largely automated. The role of carbon-based energy rapidly diminishes as it is rapidly phased out in favor of sustainable, green technologies, including high-generation-capacity wave, solar, geothermal, and wind power. Super-efficient batteries and other devices store energy for use when needed, and solar-electric arrays are common features on most buildings and homes. Personal transpor- tation outside the urban cores is rare; within the urban cores, most transportation occurs via high-efficiency actively managed transit. Personal transportation vehicles are small and based on carbon-neutral fuels (e.g., green electricity, low-carbon alternative fuels). Carbon-capture systems and wind generators are common on most roadways. Interstates are limited to freight, although, in general, freight transportation is shifting from road to rail. The few trips that individuals make between different urban areas are by train. While the move to sustainability is based on a general social consensus and there are numerous voluntary changes in the private sector and in individuals’ lives, the requirement to maintain a sustainable society leads to heavy regulation and social and economic control. Large cars, big homes, and extensive use of air travel for vacations or business purposes are a thing of the past. The high cost of energy rules out these options for any but the very rich. In addition, all major public- and private-sector investments or social or economic choices that might threaten the long-term sustainability of society are severely limited, and private use of resources is controlled by numerous regulations.