The global spread of science and technology expertise and the growing commercial access to advanced technologies with possible military application are creating potentially serious threats to the technological superiority underpinning U.S. military strength. Key to dealing with this situation is the ability of the U.S. intelligence community to be able to provide adequate and effective warning of evolving, critical technologies. To assist in performing this task, the Technology Warning Division of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to undertake a study examining technology warning issues. This report provides the first part of that study. It presents an assessment of critical, evolving technologies; postulates ways potential adversaries could disrupt these technologies; and provides indicators for the intelligence community to determine if such methods are under development. The intention of this report is to establish the foundation for a long-term relationship with the technology warning community to support the examination of technology warning issues.
National Research Council. 2005. Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/11286.
|1 Technology Warning: Motivation and Challenge||9-19|
|2 Committee Methodology||20-27|
|3 Challenges to Information Superiority||28-44|
|4 Future Threats to U.S. Airpower in Urban Warfare||45-61|
|5 Combatant Identification in Urban Warfare||62-72|
|6 Biotechnology Trends Relevant to Warfare Initiatives||73-82|
|7 Findings and Recommendations||83-86|
|Appendix A Biographical Sketches of Committee Members||87-96|
|Appendix B Presentations to the Committee||97-98|
|Appendix C Background Material for Chapter 1||99-102|
|Appendix D Background Material for Chapter 3||103-113|
|Appendix E Background Material for Chapter 6||114-122|
The Chapter Skim search tool presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter. You may select key terms to highlight them within pages of each chapter.
The National Academies Press (NAP) has partnered with Copyright Clearance Center's Rightslink service to offer you a variety of options for reusing NAP content. Through Rightslink, you may request permission to reprint NAP content in another publication, course pack, secure website, or other media. Rightslink allows you to instantly obtain permission, pay related fees, and print a license directly from the NAP website. The complete terms and conditions of your reuse license can be found in the license agreement that will be made available to you during the online order process. To request permission through Rightslink you are required to create an account by filling out a simple online form. The following list describes license reuses offered by the National Academies Press (NAP) through Rightslink:
Click here to obtain permission for the above reuses. If you have questions or comments concerning the Rightslink service, please contact:
Rightslink Customer Care
Tel (toll free): 877/622-5543
To request permission to distribute a PDF, please contact our Customer Service Department at 800-624-6242 for pricing.
To request permission to translate a book published by the National Academies Press or its imprint, the Joseph Henry Press, pleaseclick here to view more information.