Executive Summary
The world is coalescing around the need to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to limit the effects of anthropogenic climate change, with many nations setting goals of net-zero emissions by midcentury. As the largest cumulative emitter, the United States has the opportunity to lead the global fight against climate change. It has set an interim emissions target of 50–52 percent below 2005 levels by 2030 toward a net-zero goal. The recent trio of federal legislative actions—the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021 (IIJA), the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 (CHIPS), and the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA)—in addition to federal regulations and executive orders, state and local government policies, and private sector activities—put the United States in a position to claim such international leadership. Modeling analyses suggest that the federal policies could provide 70–80 percent of the emissions reductions toward the 2030 target, putting the country close to a 30-year trajectory to net zero. Concurrent to reducing emissions, the policies also aim to meet societal needs such as creating domestic jobs, eliminating energy and environmental injustices, increasing U.S. economic competitiveness, revitalizing the energy and industrial sectors, and improving human health. Achieving all of these intended outcomes will require overcoming formidable innovation and implementation challenges and ensuring that the policy portfolio produces as designed.
Through an assessment of current federal, state, and local climate and energy policies, this report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine’s Committee on Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States: Technology, Policy, and Societal Dimensions identifies gaps and barriers to implementation that would prevent the nation from attaining its climate, economic, and societal goals. It follows from the committee’s first report, released in February 2021,1 which laid out federal actions needed during the 2020s to put the nation on a fair and equitable path to decarbonization by midcentury. Both reports were tasked with examining “societal, institutional, behavioral, and equity drivers and implications of deep decarbonization” and emphasize the need for a strong social contract to maintain support for the decades-long transition to a decarbonized energy system that is fair, equitable, and just.
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1 See National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2021, Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System, Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, https://doi.org/10.17226/25932.
To that end, the committee organized this report around five major objectives of decarbonization policy—GHG emission reductions, equity and fairness, health, employment, and public engagement—that cut across eight sectors: electricity, buildings, land use, transportation, industry, finance, fossil fuels, and non-federal actors. Chapters on objectives are tailored to readers most interested in the impacts of the transition on equity, justice, health, and employment, and the need for public engagement, but also discuss relevant practical, technical, institutional, and legal constraints to achieving the societal objective. Similarly, the sectoral chapters are tailored to experts on technologies and policies to reduce emissions in that sector but, where appropriate, also assess how these technologies and policies will impact equity, employment, health, and public engagement. While causing some redundancy, this organization provides a fuller picture to specialists who will read only portions of the report.
The committee’s analysis resulted in approximately 80 recommendations directed toward a variety of government, nonprofit, and private-sector actors. These recommendations can be grouped into the following 10 broad categories, which represent main themes of the report:
- A Broadened Policy Portfolio
- Rigorous and Transparent Analysis and Reporting for Adaptive Management
- Ensuring Procedural Equity in Planning and Siting New Infrastructure and Programs
- Ensuring Equity, Justice, Health, and Fairness of Impacts
- Siting and Permitting Reforms for Interstate Transmission
- Tightened Targets for the Buildings and Industrial Sectors and a Backstop for the Transport Sector
- Managing the Future of the Fossil Fuel Sector
- Building the Needed Workforce and Capacity
- Reforming Financial Markets
- Research, Development, and Demonstration Needs
In developing its findings and recommendations, the committee recognized the inherent risks and uncertainties associated with such an unprecedented, long-term, whole-of-society transition. These include execution risk—that the nation will be unable to execute current climate and energy policy at the necessary pace and scale, or that the policies will not work as intended; technological risk—that non-emitting technologies might not be ready in time at the right price; political, judicial, and societal polarization risk—that political and judicial actions or societal pressures will change the policy landscape; and risk from events outside the energy system—that war, disease,
and other disruptions will inevitably arise and impact national and global energy systems. Mitigating these risks will require adaptive management and governance to coordinate and evaluate policy implementation and to communicate progress on outcomes. A comprehensive, system-wide evaluation of decarbonization policies and programs will also be critical for monitoring cross-sector impacts, sustaining a social license to operate, and keeping the nation on track to achieve its goal of an equitable net-zero transition.
While the destination is clear and a solid foundation has been set, the road ahead will not be easy. Individuals, businesses, and organizations across all sectors of the economy will have to work with government to implement, adapt, and expand on existing local, state, and federal climate and energy policies. But the potential benefits are great: energy services that are clean, affordable, and equitable; reduced impacts from climate change; better health and employment opportunities; and cleaner air. This report’s recommendations provide advice on filling policy gaps, overcoming implementation barriers, and establishing adaptive management strategies so that the United States can realize its net-zero emissions goal and all Americans can benefit from an equitable energy system.
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